Investor Attention Is Increasingly Turning to the Upcoming US Presidential Election

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Stocks moved slightly higher in June as investors remain optimistic over the benefits of a reopening economy. However, a growing number of COVID-19 hotspots in several US states has threatened the momentum of a recovering economy and created concern over the potential resurgence in recovering states. Information technology stocks continued their success from previous months and consumer discretionary companies benefited from encouraging data from auto suppliers and homebuilders.

Tensions continued to rise between the relationship of the United States & China. Uncertainty exists between key Chinese diplomats and US officials over their trade-agreement commitments. Investor attention is increasingly turning to the upcoming US presidential election between President Trump and the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.

The Fed had signaled their objective to continue supporting an economic recovery. Both Congress & the White House expressed their intentions for another round of stimulus funding. The potential for expanded unemployment benefits, tax cuts or industry-specific stimulus could provide direct aid to households and help jumpstart the economy.

As investors eagerly wait for more news in regard to a vaccination, markets have been volatile and fragile during this bumpy recovery. We continue to use this volatility as an opportunity to buy attractive companies, which have positive free cash flows and healthy balances sheets, at discounted prices, and seek companies that can both withstand continued economic fallout from the pandemic as well as thrive when it ends.

In the Merger Arbitrage world, returns in June were largely driven by completed deals, as well as continued progress on deals in the pipeline. Notably, we have seen some spreads revert to pre-COVID levels. We are retaining some dry powder, but we continue to deploy capital in situations that present the highest likelihood of success and certainty of value.

We are seeing early signs of a return to deal making as we move beyond the air pocket created by COVID-19. The Federal Reserve and other central banks have unleashed unprecedented liquidity that should provide an accommodative market for new issuances and M&A. CEOs and Boards of Directors continue to seek ways to create shareholder value in an increasingly global marketplace, while competing with disruptors and a consumer base that is shifting online at an increased pace. This includes both M&A and financial engineering, which can spur deal activity. We previously mentioned that Grubhub and Uber were in deal discussions, which led to two separate transactions in the food delivery space, propelled by the evolving consumer environment: Grubhub/JustEat and Uber/Postmates.

 

Column by Gabelli Funds, written by Michael Gabelli

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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.

Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

 

 

AIS Financial Group Hires Mina Lazic as Relationship Manager

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Foto Mina Lazic
Foto cedidaMina Lazic, new Relationship Manager at AIS Financial Group. Mina Lazic, new Relationship Manager at AIS Financial Group

AIS Financial Group has hired Mina Lazic as new Relationship Manager. The firm announced in a press release that she will report directly to Samir Lakkis, founding partner.

Lazic has 12 years of work experience as Global Markets Sales, working in investment banks in London. In her last role, she was Executive Director in Nomura, responsible for Cross-Asset Sales for Russia and CIS. Previous to that, she spent 8 years with Société Générale, selling FX, Rates, Credit, Flow and Structured products to FI clients in CEE, Russia, CIS, Greece, Cyprus and Austria, among others.

Lazic started her career in Merrill Lynch as Equity Derivative Sales and she holds a Masters in Finance and a Bachelors in International Economics and Management Degree from Bocconi University in Milan, Italy.

AIS currently distributes over 1 billion dollars a year in structured products and is now broadening its business line, distributing third-party funds. With offices in Madrid, Geneva, Bahamas and Panama, the company will look to partner with those managers who want to outsource their sales force and “benefit from the knowledge and experience” that they have in the region.

HSBC Global AM Appoints Luther Bryan Carter as Head of Global Emerging Markets Debt

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Carter HSBC
Foto cedidaLuther Bryan Carter, new Head of Global Emerging Markets Debt at HSBC Global AM. HSBC Global AM nombra a Luther Bryan Carte responsable de deuda global de mercados emergentes

HSBC Global Asset Management announced the appointment of Luther Bryan Carter as Head of Global Emerging Markets Debt, effective immediately. Based in London, he will report to Xavier Baraton, Global CIO Fixed Income, Private Debt and Alternatives.

The asset manager explained in a press release that in his new role, Carter will be responsible for the management of the global EMD team, investment process and portfolios, after the completion of due diligence and regulatory approval. “While taking immediate oversight responsibility for all investment decisions, his first initiative and focus will be on deepening the country research function”, they added.

Carter will take over from Nishant Upadhyay, who will remain with the firm and will focus on fixed income investment platform projects. The firm thanked Nishant for his contributions to the business since joining in 2016.

Xavier Baraton, Global CIO Fixed Income, Private Debt and Alternatives, said: “Bryan has a strong track record in the industry and will play a leading role in strengthening our EMD investment process. Global EMD remains our key capability and Bryan’s appointment is testament to our commitment to managing these assets with the skill, expertise and stewardship that our clients expect.”

Bryan has nearly 20 years’ industry experience, most recently as the award-winning lead portfolio manager for EMD at BNP Paribas Asset Management, where he hired and led a team of 16 professionals and significantly increased the firm’s EMD asset base. Prior to joining BNP Paribas, he worked at Acadian Asset Management, T Rowe Price and as an economist at the US Treasury Department.

HSBC Global AM stated that Carter has “strong ESG credentials” having developed and implemented an innovative ESG process for EMD at BNP Paribas. Since 2014, he has been deeply involved in the Emerging Markets Investors Alliance, a leading global non-profit network of institutional investors committed to advancing sustainable social and economic development in emerging markets.

Franklin Templeton Announces its New Global Distribution Model, Led by Adam Spector

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Julian Ide_0
Foto cedidaJulian Ide, new Head of EMEA Distribution. Julian Ide, nuevo responsable de distribución para EMEA de Franklin Templeton

After announcing the acquisition of Legg Mason a couple months ago, Franklin Templeton has stablished the new structure of its global distribution team. Adam Spector will become Head of Global Distribution, overseeing global retail and institutional distribution, including marketing and product strategy, and will be reporting to President and CEO Jenny Johnson. Subject to completion of the firm’s acquisition of Legg Mason (expected on Friday, July 31) Spector will assume this new role effective October 1, 2020.

Spector currently serves as Managing Partner of Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC, a specialist investment organization within Legg Mason, and will retain that role. Brandywine Global’s brand, investment independence and dedicated client service model will remain unchanged, stated Franklin Templeton on a press release.

Prior to his role as Managing Partner, Spector led Brandywine Global’s Marketing, Sales and Client Service organization. Before joining Brandywine Global in 1997, Spector was a director in the international investment management group for SEI Investments and the co-founder of a start-up in Prague.

Franklin Templeton’s new distribution model is organized into four regions: United States; Asia Pacific; Europe, Middle East, Africa; and Americas ex-U.S.; with more functions that were previously centralized now aligned to the regions. The four regional heads will report to Spector. Until he begins his new role, Johnson and Jed Plafker (recently appointed to a new role as EVP, Global Alliances and New Business Strategies) will continue to co-lead the company’s corporate-level distribution efforts.

“Bringing together the complementary strengths of the two firms (Franklin Templeton and Legg Mason) will allow us to create a more balanced and diversified organization that is competitively positioned to serve more clients in more places”, said Spector.

Julian Ide, Head of EMEA Distribution

Franklin Templeton also announced the appointment of Julian Ide as Head of EMEA Distribution. Edinburgh-based, Ide will remain as CEO of a specialist investment organisation of Legg Mason, Martin Currie. He will report to Spector.

The asset manager explained that “using his vast experience in the investment management industry”, Ide will play a leading role in further developing their distribution strategy and unlocking opportunities for growth in the EMEA region.

“I am delighted to be taking up my new role. Franklin Templeton is one of the world’s largest global asset managers with a strong investment focus, extensive value-add client partnerships and robust track records across many equity and fixed income asset classes. I am excited by the vision of the senior leadership team and the innovative culture to deliver an ambitious agenda in EMEA”, Ide commented.

The asset manager insisted that the core facets of Martin Currie will remain unchanged: “Martin Currie will continue to have investment independence as well as institutional distribution and client service independence. The Martin Currie brand will continue as a strong presence in active equity management and the group will continue to look for ways to innovate, to improve its alpha generating capabilities and service to clients”.

Continental Europe and Latin America

They also revealed that Paris-based Michel Tulle will continue to oversee distribution efforts in Continental Europe. He will be further supported by Stefan Bauer, Country Head in Germany; Michele Quinto, Country Head in Italy; Patrick Lutz, Country Head in Switzerland; Javier Villegas, Head of Distribution Iberia; Bérengère Blaszczyk, Head of Distribution France and Benelux and Mats Eltoft, Head of Distribution in the Nordic region.

Furthermore, Hugo Petricioli, will remain as Country Head for Mexico and Central America. He will continue to report to Andrew Ashton, CFA and Managing Director Head of Americas ex-US Distribution, which includes Canada, Latin America and Americas Offshore. Ashton will take on additional responsibility for marketing and product strategy across the region, and he will also report to Spector.

Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, said that the acquisition of Legg Mason will establish them as “one of the world’s largest independent asset managers, with approximately $1.4 trillion in assets under management globally”.

Mohamed A. El-Erian Is Appointed Chair of Gramercy Funds Management

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Gramercy Funds Management announced in a press release that Mohamed A. El-Erian has been appointed Chair of the firm. El-Erian has been an investor and Senior Advisor to Gramercy since April 2019.

His work with the firm has focused on global macroeconomic themes and their implications for emerging market investments. “This has permitted Gramercy to strengthen the top-down framework that supports and augments its institutionalized bottom-up investment analysis in emerging markets”, stated the firm.

In this new position, El-Erian will provide the investment team with global, regional and country perspectives on economic, market and geopolitical developments; and will offer insights on global investment trends and their impacts on EM asset classes. El-Erian will also help to decode economic and policy developments, focusing on their potential emerging markets effects. Lastly, he will advise on developing macro themes that influence individual trades and on specific investment issues, including multi-asset allocations.

“Over the last year, Mohamed has made a material contribution to our business. In this new role, he will further help ensure that Gramercy realizes its mission of having a positive impact on the well-being of our clients, portfolio investments and team members,” said Robert Koenigsberger, Managing Partner and CIO of Gramercy Funds Management.

In his view, El-Erian is a “perfect fit” for Gramercy as he is one of the “most brilliant” top-down decoders of macro themes, an investor who can transform those themes into investible ideas and he has long shared their “passion” for Emerging Markets.

For El-Erian it has been “a real joy and honor” to work with Gramercy over the last 16 months in an area he is “very passionate” about. “Having gotten to know well the team and investors, my already-high respect and admiration for the firm has only grown. As such, I am excited to take on this new role, particularly at a time when we are all looking to navigate the unusual uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 shock,” he said.

“Gramercy is exceptionally well positioned to be at the forefront of innovative solutions to the myriad of challenges facing both investors and issuers in emerging markets, impacting the people they serve and employ”, he added.

El-Erian is President-elect of Queens’ College, Cambridge University and Chief Economic Advisor to Allianz. Prior to that, he was CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO (2007-2014), which he originally joined in 1999 to lead its emerging markets portfolio management team. He served as Chairman of the Global Development Council under President Obama, spent 15 years at the International Monetary Fund, and was CEO and President of the Harvard Management Company.

Gramercy is a dedicated emerging markets investment manager based in Greenwich, CT with offices in London and Buenos Aires. The $4.75 billion firm was founded in 1998.

Man Group Announces a Distribution Partnership with the AMCS Group

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Foto cedidaFrom left to right: Chris Stapleton, Andrés Munho y Santiago Sacías. Man Group Announces a Distribution Partnership with the AMCS Group

Man Group, the active investment management firm, announced the appointment of the AMCS Group (“AMCS”) as its third-party distribution partner focused on the US offshore and Latin American wealth markets.

“The appointment, which follows a robust selection and due diligence process, marks Man Group’s first partnership in the US offshore space, and complements the firm’s existing and well-established third-party distribution model, which it has employed in Latin America for over 20 years”, stated Man Group in a press release.

AMCS will work together with Man Group’s internal sales team, including Gadi Slamovitz, Managing Director for Latin America, to deliver Man Group’s range of investment solutions to the US offshore market. “By leveraging AMCS’ deep distribution network with advisors at US banks and broker dealers that service the US offshore market, the partnership will enable Man Group to expand its distribution network and reach a broader group of global investors”, added the firm.

Man Group and AMCS will focus efforts on Man Group’s diverse range of long only and alternatives UCITS funds, managed on both a systematic and discretionary basis by Man Group’s individual investment engines, including the Man AHL TargetRisk strategy, which is a risk-balanced, multi-asset strategy that applies Man AHL’s advanced systematic techniques to a long only portfolio.

Steven Desmyter, Global Co-Head of Sales and Marketing at Man Group said that they’re looking forward to working with the AMCS Group to bring their “diverse offering” to an expanded US offshore and Latin American investor base. “Chris (Stapleton) and Andres (Munho) are industry veterans with deep knowledge of the offshore market and a thorough understanding of our products and investment solutions and we have already developed a strong working relationship with the team”.

“They are real specialists and we are confident the collaboration, managed by Gadi, will help us provide investors in this important market segment with greater access to Man Group products”, he added.

Meanwhile, Chris Stapleton, co-founder and managing partner of the AMCS Group, stated that Man Group is “a real innovator” in the investment industry and it has a lot to offer the US offshore wealth market at a time when investors are thinking deeply about capital allocations, risk management and how to diversify portfolios. “We look forward to partnering with them to increase investor access to their range of investment solutions”, he said.

Man Group is a global active investment management firm, which runs $104.2 billion of client capital in liquid and private markets, managed by investment specialists based around the world. Headquartered in London, the firm has 15 international offices and operates across multiple jurisdictions.

Headquartered on Brickell Avenue in Miami, Florida with offices in Montevideo, Uruguay, the AMCS Group was co-founded by Chris Stapleton and Andres Munho in February 2018. Latin American operations are led by Santiago Sacias. The firm specialises in building distribution networks within the US-offshore and Latin American wealth management market, and in raising assets into investment products.

Schroders Brazil hires Vinicius Bueno Lima as new Head of Institutional Sales

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Foto cedidaVinicius Bueno Lima. ,,

With 20 years of experience in the financial market, Vinicius Bueno Lima is the new Head of Institutional Sales of Schroders Brazil. His objective will be the strengthening of the relationship with institutional clients, announced the asset manager in a press release.

Lima worked for 12 years at Itaú Asset Management as Senior Commercial Manager in the areas of Private, Distribution and Institutional Investors. At BlackRock, he was the Commercial Head for four years, focusing on the relationship with institutional investors. Subsequently, he spent a year and a half at Porto Seguro Investimentos, as Commercial Head for Institutional & Corporate Investors.

In his most recent experience, he has worked for three and a half years as Senior Commercial Manager in the relationship with institutional and corporate investors at SulAmérica Investimentos.

“We have seen growth in the institutional area, which has sought to further explore all the opportunities for diversification that the current scenario brings,” said Daniel Celano, CFA, Country Head of Schroders Brazil. “Vinicius reinforces the expertise of our local team, which is part of an international, interdisciplinary and integrated team at Schroders, to provide all the necessary support to clients in the search for the best options for their investment profiles, aiming at the best results”, he stated.

Lima holds CFP® Certification (Certified Financial Planner), Bachelor on Business Administration from Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, MBA in Economics from the Financial Sector from FEA-USP and master’s in financial economics from FGV-SP.

Schroders is a global investment manager headquartered in the United Kingdom, with over 200 years of history and 25 years in Brazil. It is one of the top 25 independent managers in the country, focusing on domestic stocks, fixed income, credit and international investments. Therefore, it’s one of the five largest investors in the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), with more than R$ 14 billion under management in domestic and international assets, in addition to managing R$ 2.1 billion of Brazilian investors in fixed income, multimarket funds, shares and assets abroad.

Marco Morelli is appointed Executive Chairman of AXA Investment Managers

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AXA PRESI
Foto cedidaMarco Morelli. Marco Morelli is appointed Executive Chairman of AXA Investment Managers

AXA announced the appointment of Marco Morelli, previously Chief Executive Officer of Monte dei Paschi di Siena, as Executive Chairman of AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) and a member of AXA’s Management Committee. Morelli -who will report to Thomas Buberl, Chief Executive Officer of AXA- will take office on September 14 and will be based in Paris.

The company stated in a press release that he will replace Gérald Harlin, AXA’s Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Executive Chairman of AXA IM, who has decided to retire at the end of September. After 30 years with the Group, Harlin will remain a member of the Board of Directors.

“I would like to warmly thank Gérald for his very significant contributions to AXA’s success and his decisive role in making the Group a world leader in insurance. I would also like to thank him for postponing his retirement last year to take over the leadership of our asset management entity AXA IM, to which he and his teams have given a new impetus by putting in place a new organization that is better adapted to its future development”, commented Buberl.

“On a personal note, I would like to reiterate that I feel particularly privileged to have worked with him. I know that all AXA employees join me in wishing him all the best in his future endeavors”, he added.

Meanwhile, Harlin declared himself “very happy” and “proud” of what has been achieved with AXA IM’s teams. “Thanks to its new streamlined organization, based on two strategic operational pillars, Core and Alternative investments, AXA IM is ready to pursue its development under Marco’s leadership”, he said.

Buberl also highlighted the 36 of experience in banking and financial services of Morelli and stated that his knowledge of European markets and “proven leadership” will be key assets to further develop AXA IM. “All the members of AXA’s Management Committee join me in wishing him the best in his new role”, he added.

Morelli is “honored” to join AXA and to take over the management of AXA IM. “I look forward to working with the teams and drawing on their recognized expertise to take AXA IM to a new stage of growth and development, in line with its strategy”, he commented.

AXA IM, 100% owned by AXA, is an active, long-term, global, multi-asset investor, with approximately €804 billion in assets under management as at end of March 2020. AXA IM employs over 2.350 employees around the world and operates out of 30 offices across 21 countries.

Julius Baer Strengthens Intermediaries Team Americas with the Appointment of María-Grazia Carrasco

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Foto cedidaMaría-Grazia Carrasco . ,,

As of 1 August 2020, María-Grazia Carrasco will join Julius Baer’s Intermediaries Team Americas as a senior relationship manager “to drive continuing growth”, stated the firm in a press release.

Carrasco has a proven track record following 15 years at UBS. Most recently, she was a senior banker managing a significant book of Intermediaries in Latin America. The hiring follows several recent other appointments and hirings in the team.

Alexandre Berger, Head Intermediaries Americas, Julius Baer, commented: “I am delighted to welcome Maria-Grazia, who is bringing with her deep experience and knowledge. Our continued hiring efforts are paying off and position us well for our long-term growth ambition in the Intermediaries segment in the Latin American market. This supports our ongoing efforts to provide excellent services and platforms for our Intermediaries clients.”

Julius Baer’s Intermediaries team works with independent financial advisors and family offices that act as depositaries or brokers of the final accounts of their clients.

The attractiveness of UK bridge lending

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2020 continues to be a challenging year. The investment outlook remains cloudy, as many economies have started to recover only slowly from the economic paralysis caused by the COVID-19 epidemic. Nevertheless, stock markets have rebounded sharply, driven by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus. Equity valuation levels have reached record highs, offering only limited upside potential for investors. At the same time, traditional fixed income areas remain unattractive, given the persisting low interest rate environment. Therefore, investors continue to explore new, innovative investment opportunities that offer more attractive risk-adjusted returns.

For conservative investors, private debt remains the asset class with the most attractive risk-reward profile. The direct lending area continues to benefit from the lack of funding by traditional banks to small and medium-sized enterprises. Numerous private lending funds have been launched in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis to fill the funding vacuum that was caused by stricter banking regulations. The growth of the private debt area has been spectacular. According to the leading alternative information provider Preqin, assets under management have grown consistently each year and, as of June 2019, reached a record of $812bn. The BlackRock Investment Institute estimates annual gross returns of 10.4% for the direct lending asset class in the next seven year, based on data as of 13 April, 2020. Only private equity has a higher expected return (10.8% per year). However, while private debt returns are relatively stable, private equity interquartile returns range from -1.8% to +24.8%, which implies a completely different risk profile.

Private debt includes a wide range of strategies with different risk-return characteristics. Some areas, such as venture debt, subordinated loans and mezzanine are not without risk. Conservative investors should focus on opportunities in the senior-secured lending area where they benefit from the strongest protection. The UK real estate bridge lending market is one of the most attractive niches that perfectly illustrates the attractiveness of private lending. Real estate bridge loans are short-term loans, fully backed by the value of a property. The UK is by far the biggest bridging market in Europe with a well-established legal framework and strong lender protection. According to the Association of Short Term Lenders (ASTL), the UK bridging loan books grew 19.7% to GBP 4.5 billion in 2019, which is more than the combined market size of all other European countries. At the same time, the UK bridging market is less crowded than the US market, offering higher yields and lower default rates. Average monthly interest rates are close to 0.9% per month, or more than 11% annualized, a sharp contrast to the Bank of England’s key bank rate that was reduced to a record low of 0.1% during the COVID-19 epidemic.

What are the reasons real estate developers are willing to pay such high rates? The short answer is the lack of funding by traditional banks. It is not surprising that in a recently conducted survey by Ernst & Young, the key consideration when choosing a bridge lender, is the speed of execution. The most important purpose for bridge loans are refurbishment projects with a relatively short duration. Another reason is an acquisition bridge to complete the necessary down payment within 30 days after purchasing a property at an auction. Developers might also seek bridge funding to start a development before replacing the bridge loan with a cheaper construction loan or mortgage by a bank. Sometimes, a partial construction or a certain level of pre-sales help to get a more favorable long-term bank loan, which more than offsets the temporary high rates for a bridge.

Investors also benefit from the short duration of the bridge loans with clear exit strategies. The average loan duration is only 9 to 12 months. More importantly, bridge loans are fully secured by the value of the property that exceeds the loan size significantly. In the UK, the average loan-to-value (LTV) is around 60%. This means that even if property prices drop 40%, there would be no impairment. Importantly, investors can count on best-in-class valuation companies that ensure a fair, current appraisal of the properties. Interestingly, property prices, especially on the low- and middle-class residential segments outside London, have remained very stable, even after Brexit and during the Covid-19 recession. This is mainly because of the severe housing deficit that has existed for many years, as the supply of new housing has not met the rising demand from population growth.

The Great Financial Crisis was the main catalyst for the rise of the private debt market, as private investors and fund managers started to seize the opportunity to replace traditional banks in providing the much-needed funding to small and medium-sized enterprises. The impressive growth of the UK bridging market is an excellent example of this trend. Investors can take advantage of this attractive investment opportunity via the Katch Real Estate Lending Fund that offers high transparency and superior risk-adjusted returns, compared to other asset classes.

Column by Pascal Rohner, CIO at Katch Investments