Bill Gross recomienda a los banqueros centrales recordar los principios del Monopoly

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Bill Gross: “Worry About the Return “Of” Your Money, Not the Return “On” It”
Foto: Rich Brooks. Bill Gross recomienda a los banqueros centrales recordar los principios del Monopoly

En su carta destinada a inversores correspondiente al mes de julio, Bill Gross afirma que si «los gobernadores y presidentes de la Fed entendieran un poco más acerca del juego conocido como Turista o Monopoly, y un poco menos acerca de modelos obsoletos como la regla de Taylor y la curva de Phillips, entonces nuestra economía y sus perspectivas de futuro podría ser un poco mejores». Así lo indica en la carta publicada en la web de su gestora, Janus Capital.

Sin olvidar otros temas sobre la mesa como el Brexit, el creciente movimiento populista en el terreno político y la posibilidad de lo que él llama la des-globalización (con menor comercio, migración y crecimiento económico), Gross se muestra muy crítico con la política de tipos de interés que han seguido los banqueros centrales, porque no ha servido para estimular el crédito en la economía real ni para impulsar el crecimiento.

Así, frente a modelos como la regla de Taylor y la curva de Phillips -modelos que relacionan los tipos de interés con la inflación y la tasa de paro, respectivamente-, invita a los banqueros centrales a mirar la importancia del crédito privado, porque si éste no se incrementa, la economía se estanca o incluso retrocede. De ahí que aluda al popular juego de mesa, el Monopoly, que ayuda a obtener 200 dólares al pasar de nuevo por la casilla de «Salida» o «Go», y lo equipara con un nuevo crédito, «responsable de la salud de nuestra economía basada en las finanzas. Sin un nuevo crédito, el crecimiento económico se mueve en la reserva y la bancarrota de los jugadores se hace más probable».

Gross también alude a cómo a principios del juego cuando «la banca» da los 1.500 dólares iniciales, el crecimiento es fuerte pero con el tiempo se empieza a desacelerar.

Gross añade que la oferta de dinero o el crecimiento del crédito no es el único determinante del PIB, sino que es importante también la velocidad que lleva ese dinero o crédito y advierte de una posible contracción económica. En su opinión, esto significa «a lo sumo, un techo para los precios de los activos de riesgo (acciones, bonos high yield, capital privado, bienes inmuebles…) y en el peor de los casos, signos negativos al final del año que fuercen a los inversores a abandonar la esperanza sobre rendimientos futuros comparables a los ejemplos históricos. Hay que preocuparse ahora por que el dinero retorne, no por el retorno que dé el dinero», dice.

En definitiva, nuestra economía requiere de la creación de crédito «y si se mantiene baja, los futuros perdedores crecerán en número», concluye Gross.

Puede leer la carta completa en el siguiente link.

Henrique Cardoso Believes that Brazil has Reached a Turning Point

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Over 2000 people gathered in Atibaia during the 24th, 25th, and 26th of June to attend XP Investimentos’ sixth national convention, one of the largest events held in Latin America for investment professionals.  The Expert 2016 event was attended by such international fund management companies with a local presence as Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, JP Morgan AM, BNP Paribas AM, Deutsche Bank, BNY Mellon, and Mirae Assets; local fund managers with a prominent role in Brazilian and Latin American markets such as the Group’s own fund manager, XP Gestão de Recursos, thefund management companies within the Azimut Group, Questy AZ and AZ Legan, BTG Pactual, Bozano Investimentos, Votorantim Asset, and Valora Gestão de Investimentos, amongst others. In addition, banks and insurance companies such as Porto Seguro, Prudential, Sulamérica Investimentos, and Icatú Seguros, as well as the fund distributor and custodian platform, Allfunds Bank, also participated.

During this financial industry trade fair, there was also time for conferences, training sessions and presentation of awards. The event kicked off with a welcome to all attendees by Guilherme Benchimol, XP Investimentos President and Founding Partner of XP Group. Benchimol recalled the company’s beginnings, reviewing its development from the outset. Gabriel Leal, a partner at XP Group and the company’s Retail Business Director, spoke about the current situation in the markets and the future of XP Group.

Next, Abilio Diniz, current President of the Board of Directors at Península Participaçoes, spoke about the challenges currently faced by Brazil. Diniz recommended trying to understand the country’s current crisis by using the example of the ideograms that make up the word “crisis” in Mandarin Chinese: “danger” and “opportunity”. Thus, he informed of the need for: survival spirit, monitoring costs closely, assessing the crisis as a whole, avoiding to blame the crisis, looking in the mirror rather than out of the window, and anticipating, all in order to exit the crisis stronger.  Abilio Diniz, who along with his father Valentim, was responsible for developing one of the country’s largest retail distribution networks, Grupo Pão de Açúcar, is also Chairman of the Board at BRF, and member of the board of directors for the Carrefour Group in Brazil.

Later, Martin Escobari, entrepreneurial and private equity investor partner in charge of General Atlantic’s operations in Latin America, shared his three rules for investing even in times of low visibility. For Escobari, the first rule is to look to the future, something relatively easy to do in markets such as Brazil which, to a certain extent, lag behind more developed markets. As an example, he mentioned the mutual funds retail distribution market in the US during the seventies, in which 80% of the funds were distributed through banks and 20% by independent firms, and its evolution to the present, in which 98% of investment funds are distributed by independent entities; while the Brazilian funds’ distribution market is almost entirely in the hands of banks, which portends a trend in the migration of savings towards independent channels. As a second rule, he recommended reacting quickly to market conditions, and finally, as a third rule, looking for resistance by investing in companies that do not depend on the country’s situation.

During his presentation, José Gallo, Director and President at Lojas Renner, spoke of the need to ‘enchant’ the client, the importance of developing an emotional attachment to the construction of a brand, and simplifying the management process as much as possible.

Finally, one of the most exciting moments of the day was when the audience stood to welcome the ‘Eternal President’, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, President of Brazil for two consecutive terms, from 1995 to 2003. Cardoso gave an overview of the extremism currently present in global politics, with the very recent Brexit results and the US presidential elections before the end of the year. With regard to the economic crisis currently faced by Latin America’s largest economy, Cardoso referred to the years of the global financial crisis and the performance of the financial team under Lula’s government, during which there was an increase in public spending, credit, and consumption, without an increase in investment, which in his opinion is a «Recipe for Disaster.» The former president also spoke of the need to reform the Brazilian political system, in which the more than 30 parties participating in Congress prevent setting a course for implementing the political agenda, he therefore commented on the need to return from cohabitation presidentialism to coalition presidentialism. As for the future of Brazil, Cardoso believes that the country reached a turning point where the Lava-Jato operation was a necessary and positive step for advancement. His only fear is the possible emergence of «backward» political demagogues who do not culturally perceive the need for what needs to be done. At the economic level, he trusts the dynamism of Brazilian industry and agriculture as a force to recover the path to growth. When asked if he would be willing to return to the forefront of politics, the former president’s felt honored by the request, but declined politely, joking that at 85 years of age, a return to politics would shorten his life significantly.  

PIMCO Strengthens its Emerging Markets Team

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PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm, has hired Gene Frieda as Executive Vice President and Global Strategist for the firm’s emerging markets and global strategies and Yacov Arnopolin as Executive Vice President and Emerging Markets Portfolio Manager. They will both be based in PIMCO’s London office.

Frieda, who will work primarily with the emerging markets team but will also contribute to other global, country and sector strategies, will report to Andrew Balls, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer – Global Fixed Income. Arnopolin, who will focus primarily on emerging markets external debt strategies, will report to Michael Gomez, Managing Director and Head of the Emerging Markets Portfolio Management team.

“Gene and Yacov are two tremendous additions to our global macroeconomic and emerging markets portfolio management expertise, as their deep experience will bolster PIMCO’s investment process and tap the investment opportunities we see for clients in emerging markets,” said Dan Ivascyn, Managing Director and PIMCO’s Group Chief Investment Officer. He added: “PIMCO will continue to use its considerable resources to hire the best industry talent globally. Already this year, we have hired more than 130 new employees, including 14 portfolio managers and 20 more investment professionals across many areas including alternatives, client analytics, mortgages, real estate and macroeconomics.”

Frieda joins PIMCO from Moore Capital Management where he was a Partner and Senior Global Strategist. Prior to that, he was the Global Head of Emerging Markets Research and Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland. Prior to joining PIMCO, Arnopolin was a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management in New York where he helped oversee emerging market portfolios for institutional clients such as pension funds, insurance companies and sovereign wealth funds.

“Gene and Yacov bring nearly 40 years of combined investment experience and complement other specialized resources we have added in recent years, including in emerging markets corporates and local markets,” said Gomez.

“As the adverse global backdrop of lower commodity prices and a stronger dollar give way to a more constructive picture for emerging markets, now is an exciting time to be adding two such talented investment professionals as Gene and Yacov to the PIMCO team,” said Balls.

Digital Advice Could Offer a Solution For U.S. Consumers With Too Small Portfolios For Financial Advisors

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According to new research from Cerulli Associates, digital advice could offer a solution for U.S. consumers with portfolios too small to attract the attention of financial advisors.

«The mass market and the lower end of the middle market are underserved by financial advisors,» states Tom O’Shea, associate director at Cerulli. «A vast majority of consumers do not possess the assets necessary to merit attention from financial advisors.»

«Digital advice innovation presents an opportunity to enhance the efficiency of advisors servicing small accounts,» O’Shea adds. «Combining human and digital advice can strengthen the fiduciary foundation of the client recommendations. This combination also allows an advisor to scale their practice in such a way that he or she can profitably manage the smaller accounts of mass-market consumers.»

«Almost 90 million U.S. households have investable assets of less than $100,000,» O’Shea explains. «Yet, only 8% of financial advisors treat this segment as their core market. The overwhelming majority of advisors target clients with higher levels of investable assets.»

«It is not that advisors are unwilling to help small investors,» O’Shea continues. «Rather, they cannot figure out how to make money when working with them, leaving investors to go it alone or rely on guidance provided by direct-to-consumer firms.»

 

GAM Acquires UK Based Cantab Capital Partners

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Zurich headquartered GAM, the industry’s third-biggest provider of liquid alternative UCITS funds, announced the acquisition of Cantab Capital Partners, an industry-leading, multi-strategy systematic manager based in Cambridge, UK. Cantab manages USD 4.0 billion in assets for institutional clients worldwide.

At the same time, GAM launches GAM Systematic, a new investment platform dedicated to systematic products and solutions across liquid alternatives and long-only traditional asset classes including equities, debt and multi asset. Cantab will form the cornerstone of GAM Systematic.

By moving into the growing segment of scalable systematic investing, GAM takes an important step to deliver on its long-term objective to expand and diversify its active asset management business. Leading systematic strategies are attracting substantial allocations from investors globally due to their compelling returns and their rigorous, disciplined investment processes.

According to a press release, «GAM Systematic will complement GAM’s successful active discretionary investment offering. It will also serve as the Group’s innovation hub for the development of new technologies, investment ideas and approaches for systematic strategies and products.»

Alexander S. Friedman, Group Chief Executive Officer of GAM, said: “We have been evaluating how best to enter the systematic space for the past 18 months because we believe it represents an important capability for an active investment firm in the current environment and in the decades to come. GAM Systematic will offer our clients a compelling range of unique products complementary to our strong discretionary product range at a time when the investment industry is challenged to provide cost-efficient, liquid and diversified sources of returns.”

“The market turmoil following the UK referendum last week has only reinforced our determination to pursue, and deliver on, our strategy of diversification and long-term growth. In Cantab we are acquiring industry-leading intellectual capital, a highly distinguished decade-long investment performance track record, and a profitable and scalable business. In combination with GAM’s global distribution reach, I am convinced that this business is well positioned for significant growth.» He concluded.

BNP Paribas crea un holding para agrupar sus filiales en Estados Unidos

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BNP Paribas Creates an Intermediate Holding Company in the United States
Foto: Global Panorama . BNP Paribas crea un holding para agrupar sus filiales en Estados Unidos

BNP Paribas ha anunciado la creación de la compañía holding intermediaria (IHC, por sus siglas en inglés) BNP Paribas USA, Inc., con efecto 1 de julio de 2016. Esta decisión muestra el compromiso de la entidad francesa con el mercado estadounidense, su mayor operativa fuera de Europa y una región clave para sus negocios y planes de desarrollo.

Como gran organización bancaria extranjera, la corporación está obligada por la nueva regulación a crear un holding local que agrupe todas sus filiales del país. De esta manera, BNP Paribas USA acogerá la filial de consumo, BancWest, y las de banca corporativa e institucional (CIB) y gestión de fondos en los Estados Unidos.

Los negocios locales mayorista y de consumo del banco francés han experimentado un significativo crecimiento en los últimos años, y así, en 2015, la filial de CIB y los servicios bancarios al consumo incrementaron sus ingresos en un 15% y un 5%, respectivamente, en relación al año anterior. En la actualidad, el banco cuenta con 16.000 empleados en el país.

Michael Shepherd se convierte en presidente del consejo del nuevo holding, manteniendo la misma posición –que ya ocupa- en BancWest, y Jean-Yves Fillion, responsable del negocio de CIB, será el nuevo CEO.

Brexit… Pursued by a Bear?

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Early “Brexit” impact was localized, but tail risk persists.

When the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, I happened to be in the thick of it, on a business visit to London. When I turned in on the night of 23 June, the opinion polls showed the race to be neck-and-neck, but financial markets were increasingly confident that a “Remain” vote would be returned. The comment we published the next morning was not the one we’d anticipated.

You had to be there to get a good sense of the shock the “Leave” vote caused. It has set off the U.K.’s biggest political and constitutional upheaval in 70 years. But what do markets make of it all?

Large-Cap Equities Erase Losses
Our initial response was to convey our view that fears of a “Lehman moment” were overblown. The vote hadn’t changed the fact that we are in a slow-growth, low-inflation, low-interest rate environment. Sure enough, the FTSE 100 Index powered back through its pre-Brexit level at the end of last week. The S&P 500 Index has also been reversing its losses. Global risk assets were recovering even before Bank of England Governor Mark Carney boosted them by hinting, last Thursday, at “some monetary policy easing” over the summer. It looks like our first instinct was a good one.

We have now experienced a handful of these V-shaped moves in markets over the past two years, over which time both the price and the earnings of the S&P 500 have remained virtually unchanged. Indeed, it’s the “slow, low, low” background that is both stagnating earnings and allowing specific or localized shocks to cause outsized short-term volatility; it makes the margin of error for investors so thin.

And there is no shortage of additional potential shocks coming our way. The U.S. still has to choose between two (at least publicly) anti-trade Presidential candidates in November, and Spain’s latest general election kicked off an 18-month cycle that will include Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. But as long as the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged, volatility from these events can create opportunity, which is why we stress the importance of focusing on fundamentals rather than news headlines. Amid the noise of last week, for example, the Atlanta Fed raised its forecast for U.S. Q2 real GDP growth to 2.7%, while the Eurozone printed a positive headline inflation number and its lowest unemployment in five years.

The Impact Has Been Localized
This is not to say that the vote hasn’t inflicted damage. At the end of last week, the FTSE 250 Index, which better represents the U.K. economy than the global, often U.S. dollar-earning companies of the FTSE 100, was still some 5% short of pre-Brexit levels. European stocks remained down by a similar amount. This is as challenging for the E.U. as for the U.K. itself: Standard & Poor’s downgraded both entities last week.

And then of course there is the pound sterling. Its 8% one-day drop against the U.S. dollar on 24 June was the biggest since the end of Bretton Woods. A recovery last week was stopped in its tracks by those comments from Mark Carney.

So far, so rational. Global markets in general have recovered, with those most exposed to the longer-term implications of “Brexit” re-priced for weaker performance.

Still “Slow, Low, Low”—But More So
Where the vote has had a broader impact, it’s “more of the same”. “Brexit” hasn’t changed the “slow, low, low” dynamic, but may have amplified it. Fed Funds futures now forecast that the U.S. central bank will be on hold at least into next year. The prospect of monetary tightening disappearing over the horizon has driven bond yields lower. The two-year U.K. Gilt yield went negative for the first time last week, the entire Swiss curve is dipping in and out of negative territory and the German Bund yield has sunk to uncharted depths. And now the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also flirting with historic lows.

This puts banking-sector profits under more pressure: at the end of last week European banks were still down 15%-20% since the vote, but U.S. banks remained down 4%-5%, too. But does it forecast similar gloom for non-financial corporate earnings? This is something Joe Amato discussed a couple of weeks ago, and we still think bonds are being pushed by technical pressures rather than fear of an outright collapse in growth and earnings—and so far equity markets appear to agree.

Nonetheless, we believe this is a time for caution, not complacency. If the U.K.’s voters have articulated a cry of rage against trade and globalization that is heard and echoed further afield, we could see more than a localized effect on growth prospects. In Spain a week ago the electorate responded to “Brexit” by moving back towards the center, but there are still many more occasions for political risks to spill into global economic fundamentals—and for markets to hit bumps that are much harder to overcome.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight column by Erik L. Knutzen

Norteamérica lidera la captación de fondos para private equity en el segundo trimestre de 2016

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North America Drives Private Equity Fundraising in Q2 2016
Foto: James Cridland . Norteamérica lidera la captación de fondos para private equity en el segundo trimestre de 2016

La captación de fondos en private equity se aceleró en el segundo trimestre de 2016, con el cierre de 180 fondos con un total de 101.000 millones de dólares. Dado que se espera que estas cifras aumenten entre un 10 y un 15% cuando se publiquen más datos, cabe esperar que el capital total comprometido en fondos cerrados en el trimestre se acerque al récord de 112.000 millones alcanzado en el cuarto trimestre de 2013.

Sin embargo, mientras que el número de fondos cerrados casi coincide con los 186 del trimestre anterior, se queda por debajo de los 261 del mismo período del año anterior.

El 54% de los fondos de private equity cerrados en el primer semestre de este año, han sido completados por encima del volumen de activos previsto, lo cual marca un nuevo hito. Sólo el 21% se cerró por debajo de su tamaño objetivo, mientras en 2015 fueron el 28%.

El nivel de capital no desembolsado y que se encuentra a disposición de los gestores alcanzó nuevos máximos históricos, al pasar de 745.000 millones a finales de 2015 a 818.000 a finales de junio de 2016.

A 1 de julio hay 1.720 fondos de private equity globalmente en el mercado, apuntando a un agregado 447.000 millones, frente a los 1.630 fondos que buscaban 488.000 el día 1 de enero. Esta es la primera reducción en el objetivo de capital global desde el inicio de 2014.

Los fondos enfocados en América del Norte fueron el principal motor del crecimiento en el trimestre: 96 de los fondos captaron 60.000 millones, el 59% del total global. Por el contrario, Europa vio como 44 fondos solo captaban 33.000  millones entre marzo y junio, de los cuales 10.800 corresponden al Ardian Secondary Fund VII. Sólo 11 fondos para buyouts centrados en la región consiguieron cerrar, con un a cifra agregada de 13.000 millones. En Asia fueron 33 los que cerraron tras captar 6.000 millones en el trimestre, y siete fondos del resto del mundo recaudaron 1.300 millones.

Generali Investments Among the Most Committed SRI Asset Managers in France

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Generali Investments has been included in the ‘High-impact Socially Responsible Investments’ category in the 2015 report of the responsible investments in France compiled by Novethic, the Paris-based SRI certification agency, auditor and research center and the creator of the first European SRI certification. For the first time ever, Novethic has split the group of assessed companies into three categories, on the basis of how impactful their SRI approach is on the investment choices. Generali Investments has been nominated in the category with the strongest impact.

“The Novethic recognition is testament to Generali Investments’ continuous effort on SRI”, has commented Franca Perin, Head of SRI of Generali Investments. “Being included among the 29 most committed SRI asset managers certifies that Generali Investments is at the forefront of responsible investing thanks to a stringent, proprietary and innovative methodology and top- notch ESG analysis capabilities”.

Novethic has assessed 55 asset management companies operating in France and integrating Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria in their investment choices (barring mere exclusion principles). In the ‘High-impact SRI’ category, Novethic has included those managers applying either a best-in-class approach (i.e. excluding more than half of the investment universe, such as Generali Investments) or a best-in-universe approach (i.e. more than 25%) or offering thematic investments. The ‘High-impact SRI’ category accounted for €54 billion of assets in 2015, out of €746 billion of total responsible investments in France (+29% vs. 2014).

Headed by Franca Perin and composed of five analysts based in Paris, Generali Investments’ SRI team screens approximately 520 European listed companies in 26 different sectors on the basis of 34 ESG criteria. The criteria are applied in a way that rewards those companies making the ‘best efforts’ to reach the ‘best practice’. The initial universe is therefore halved, and the selected companies are included in the proprietary database S.A.R.A. (Sustainability Analysis of Responsible Asset Management). Generali Investments applies its SRI methodology to a portfolio of €30 billion in total. Generali Investments is also the appointed investment manager of two SRI funds – GIS SRI European Equity and GIS SRI Ageing Population.

Hombres y mujeres tienen diferentes sentimientos en cuanto a seguridad financiera

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Overall Sentiment Stagnates, but Vast Differences Remain between Men and Women
Foto: Ted Goldring . Hombres y mujeres tienen diferentes sentimientos en cuanto a seguridad financiera

Después de un registro más positivo en 2015, en el primer semestre de 2016 el sentimiento de los estadounidenses hacia su seguridad financiera se ha estancado, según el Country Financial Security Index. A mediados de 2015 el índice subía 2,1 puntos hasta situarse en 66,9, el punto más alto desde la crisis de 2008. Sin embargo, esa marca se ha visto reducida a 66,7 en la medición realizada recientemente.

Además de la visión general, el índice también muestra las diferencias entre los sentimientos de hombres y mujeres y pone en evidencia que aunque el 51% de los estadounidenses dice que su seguridad financiera no está sufriendo alteraciones, los hombres son más tendentes a opinar que sus circunstancias están mejorando que las mujeres.

Así, la puntuación arrojada por las respuestas de las mujeres sitúa el sentimiento en punto 65,1 del índice, cerca de sus mínimo histórico y el estudio revela que hasta el 76% de las mujeres no cree que las cosas estén mejorando. Además, las mujeres tienen mayor tendencia a creer que su situación financiera global sigue en el mismo punto que los hombres.

Los hombres están tomando medidas que mejoran sus seguridad financiera a corto plazo, lo que facilita que vean cierta mejora en la situación general: tienen mayor tendencia a reservar parte del dinero para ahorros e inversiones y confían más que las mujeres en su capacidad para pagar las deudas.

Por lo que respecta a su panorama financiero a largo plazo, la visión de las mujeres se vuelve más negativa. Con el incremento de los costes que supone la educación superior y la mayor longevidad en Estados Unidos, las mujeres no están seguras de su capacidad para poder cubrir todos los gastos: en general tienen menos confianza que los hombres en poder soportar los costes de la universidad de su hijos y en su capacidad de poder asegurarse un retiro cómodo.