El mercado de renta fija china alcanza la mayoría de edad para los fondos globales de inversión

La visión de Thornburg Investment Management

Fecha:

beijing-3675835_640
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPekín. Pekín
  1. China debt inclusion in the Russell flagship benchmark (FTSE Russell WGBI) will be a gamechanger in terms of foreign investors’ strategic allocations.It will make China the sixth largest market by weight and will have the second highest country group yield in the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) behind only Mexico.
  2. The Chinese government’s management of Covid-19 along with recent policy changes have made its bond market more attractive to institutional investors. While policy makers elsewhere were cutting funding rates, expanding balance sheets and increasing fiscal spend, Chinese counterparts were more austere, and in some cases, they even tightened policy. The goods and digital economy in China far outweigh the service economy so less structural support was needed.
  3. Default risk in China has always been more about refinancing risk than leverage. Seventy-six companies have roughly $50bn of repayment pressure over the coming months. Moody’s forecasts the trailing 12-month default rate for these firms will fall to 3.5% at year-end from 7.4% at the end of 2020.