Las empresas mineras de oro han sido durante mucho tiempo ese primo torpe e inoportuno en una fiesta familiar, puesto en la mesa de los niños lo más lejos posible de la acción. Y, como ese primo socialmente inepto, las mineras de oro se han visto al margen de los inversores activos.
En los últimos 20 años, sus márgenes de beneficio han estado bajo presión, y el crecimiento sostenible de las ganancias, ausente. El sector ha experimentado breves momentos de luz, pero los inversores se han sentido encantados de evitar las excéntricas y enrevesadas métricas de valoración y la narrativa que acompaña a esta área del mercado.
Sin embargo, está preparada para convertirse en la próxima gran historia de los mercados financieros. Las empresas mineras de oro se encuentran en el ojo de una tormenta perfecta. El entorno operativo tiene mucho mejor aspecto que el que ha tenido en décadas; los márgenes están ahora a punto de aumentar de forma sostenible, ya que, junto con el colapso de los insumos energéticos (petróleo), las monedas de oro y plata, como el dólar australiano, han caído entre un 25% y un 30% frente al dólar estadounidense.
Mientras tanto, los inversores activos en renta variable long-only que han ignorado al sector durante las dos últimas décadas carecen claramente de alternativas saludables de cara al próximo año. Para aquellos que tienen el mandato de mantener sus posiciones largas en el mercado de valores a medida que los cráteres de la economía real y las ganancias se hunden, las cifras de ganancias trimestrales crecientes (colocadas frente a las ganancias trimestrales que caen de forma consistente en la economía general) deberían convertirse en un premio irresistible, bienvenido y fulgurante.
Engrasar las ruedas
La ratio oro/petróleo (el coste de una onza de oro en relación a un barril o, mejor dicho, barriles de petróleo) ha alcanzado niveles sin precedentes de más de 100:1, una enorme ventaja para las mineras de oro con un uso intensivo de energía. Durante décadas, esta medida ha oscilado entre 20 y 30:1. Este cambio, junto con la debilidad de la moneda, hace el caso aún más convincente.
Sí: la narrativa subyacente de degradación monetaria y riesgo estructural hace que el sector sea más atractivo que antes, pero las mineras de oro también se están volviendo atractivas por su propio mérito. Y, para los inversores como nosotros, que ya hemos invertido en el sector, la posibilidad de una rotación importante de las carteras activas de acciones hacia lo que históricamente ha sido un componente ignorado de los índices de renta variable, es una novedad realmente emocionante.
Las mineras de oro han regresado a la fiesta, a la mesa principal, y se disputan un asiento junto al anfitrión. Con un viento de cola sólido para el sector, unas perspectivas de crecimiento de las ganancias auténticas y sostenibles, y una escasez de oportunidades en otros lugares, el sector está totalmente vestido como la reina del baile de 2020.
Y, con alrededor del 80% del Merian Gold & Silver Fund invertido en mineras de oro y plata, eso solo es una buena noticia para nosotros.
Tribuna de Ned Naylor-Leyland, gestor del Merian Gold & Silver Fund en Merian Global Investors
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This communication provides information relating to Merian Gold & Silver Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
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The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
This communication provides information relating to Merian Gold & Silver Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
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The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
This communication provides information relating to a fund known as Merian Gold & Silver Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (Singapore) Pte Limited, which is not licensed or regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). Merian Global Investors (Singapore) Pte Limited is affiliated to Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited. Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited (“Merian Global Investors”), Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. Merian Global Investors is registered in England and Wales (number: 02949554) and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 171847) but is not licensed or regulated by MAS.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
The Fund has been approved for distribution to non-qualified investors in or from Switzerland by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (“FINMA”). First Independent Fund Services Ltd., Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich is the Swiss representative and BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich is the Swiss paying agent in relation to the shares of the Fund (“Shares”) distributed in or from Switzerland. Accordingly, the Shares and the relevant fund documents and any offering material relating to the Fund and/or the Shares may be distributed in or from Switzerland to non-qualified investors. In respect of the Shares distributed in or from Switzerland, the place of jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Swiss representative.
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This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited (“Merian Global Investors”), Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. Merian Global Investors is registered in England and Wales (number: 02949554) and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 171847).
This communication provides information relating to [INSERT SUB-FUND NAME] (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
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Merian Global Investors Series Plc is not registered as an investment company in the United States under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and its shares are not registered under the U.S Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”). Shares of Merian Global Investors Series plc Funds funds are not available for purchase by “US Persons” as that term is defined under Regulation S of the Securities Act. Under certain circumstances shares may be purchased by persons that reside in the United States that are “accredited investors” as that term is defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D, as promulgated pursuant to the Securities Act. The information contained in this document is not intended to be an offer of shares and is for informational purposes only. The information provided in this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in the United States, unless such person is an accredited investor and can reasonably verify their status as such, or in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject any of the funds described herein, any member of the Merian Global Investors Group or any of their products or services to any registration, licensing or other authorisation requirement within such jurisdiction or country. This communication is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations. In particular, the shares are not for distribution in the US or to US persons, unless such person is an accredited investor and can reasonably verify their accredited investor status.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
MGI 04_20_0047
