El comportamiento errático de la renta variable indonesia este año -representado por la línea azul en el gráfico, incluido en nuestra sección Chart Room- es quizá sorprendente dadas las fortalezas estructurales del país.
Indonesia es uno de los pocos países de la región asiática que se benefician de una demografía favorable y de la tendencia de las empresas internacionales a deslocalizar sus líneas de suministro lejos de China. Las acciones siguen siendo baratas en relación con los impresionantes niveles de crecimiento de los últimos años, y la composición idiosincrásica del mercado significa que tiende a comportarse de forma diferente a la renta variable mundial.
Por todo ello, la venta masiva de marzo (provocada por la elección del presidente Prabowo) podría considerarse una oportunidad de compra que se perdió. El presidente entrante no tardó en convencer a los mercados de su sentido de la responsabilidad fiscal frente a la inquietud que suscitaban sus ambiciosos planes de gasto. Las acciones siguieron una trayectoria ascendente hasta la segunda corrección del año en septiembre, esta vez provocada por los acontecimientos en China, cuando las noticias de un paquete de estímulo alejaron a los inversores de Indonesia.
La decisión de los inversores de dar un paso atrás desdeña lecciones que podrían haberse aprendido menos de seis meses antes. Como antes, la historia de crecimiento a largo plazo de Indonesia no ha cambiado; en todo caso, se vería reforzada por una China resurgente. Pekín es el mayor socio comercial de Yakarta, una relación que floreció aún más cuando los mercados occidentales apartaron su mirada de China. Lo que es bueno para China es, en términos generales, bueno para los países de la región ASEAN.
Además, el nuevo nombramiento en octubre de Mulyani Indrawati como ministra de Finanzas ha tranquilizado aún más a los mercados sobre los planes fiscales del nuevo régimen. Su nombramiento fue un guiño explícito a la estabilidad. Indrawati ha servido a dos presidentes en los últimos 20 años, y durante su último mandato mantuvo el déficit presupuestario de Indonesia dentro del límite legal del 3% del PIB.
El comportamiento del mercado bursátil indonesio este año ha estado dominado por dos caídas. Se ha recuperado bien de una, y puede que estemos empezando la segunda recuperación.
Tribuna de Taosha Wang y George Efstathopoulos, gestores de multiactivos de Fidelity International
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