Las bolsas estadounidenses subieron en enero, repuntando tras un final de 2024 mayoritariamente a la baja. Los acontecimientos políticos dominaron los titulares al iniciar el presidente Trump su nuevo mandato en la Casa Blanca. Los mercados reaccionaron positivamente a las expectativas de desregulación y de políticas económicas favorables al crecimiento. Sin embargo, la preocupación por el posible impacto de los aranceles de Trump se cierne sobre las empresas nacionales e internacionales. La resistencia del mercado y las elevadas valoraciones de las acciones se pondrán sin duda a prueba en los próximos meses.
Durante el mes, la narrativa del crecimiento de la IA se vio sometida a presión después de que el modelo chino de bajo coste DeepSeek desencadenara una venta masiva de valores vinculados a la IA. La noticia suscitó dudas sobre la sostenibilidad del gasto tecnológico estadounidense en modelos de IA, la capacidad de fijación de precios y la posición general de Estados Unidos en la carrera mundial de la IA. Nvidia fue uno de los valores más rezagados en medio de la inquietud suscitada por DeepSeek, mientras que Meta Platforms publicó unos buenos resultados, que pusieron de relieve los amplios vientos de cola de las iniciativas de IA.
El 29 de enero, la Reserva Federal mantuvo estables los tipos de interés, haciendo una pausa en su reciente ciclo de relajación mientras evalúa un panorama político y económico cada vez más incierto. La Reserva Federal señaló que los indicadores recientes muestran que la actividad económica ha seguido creciendo a un ritmo sólido, y que el mercado laboral se mantiene fuerte. El presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, declaró que el banco central necesitaría ver «un progreso real en la inflación o cierta debilidad en el mercado laboral antes de que consideremos hacer ajustes». La próxima reunión del FOMC está prevista para los días 18 y 19 de marzo.
Los valores de pequeña capitalización obtuvieron peores resultados que sus homólogos de gran capitalización, ya que la preocupación por unos tipos de interés «más altos durante más tiempo» siguió siendo un factor adverso a corto plazo. Sin embargo, a medida que los tipos tiendan a la baja, creemos que las empresas de pequeña y mediana capitalización están bien posicionadas para beneficiarse hasta 2025/2026. El descenso de los tipos suele servir de catalizador para la renta variable, ya que reduce los costes de endeudamiento, fomenta una fuerte actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones, aumenta el gasto de los consumidores e impulsa unos múltiplos de valoración más elevados. La valoración del Russell 2000 Value sigue siendo atractiva, ya que actualmente se negocia a ~14 veces los beneficios estimados para los próximos doce meses, frente a ~24 veces para el S&P 500. Este atractivo diferencial de valoración subraya la necesidad de que el mercado de renta variable siga siendo competitivo. Este atractivo diferencial de valoración subraya la importancia de las valoraciones como factor determinante de la rentabilidad a largo plazo.
La actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones (M&A) fue sólida en enero, con más de 300.000 millones de dólares en nuevas operaciones anunciadas, lo que supone un aumento de más del 13% en comparación con los niveles de 2024. Observamos que hubo nada menos que seis ofertas no solicitadas por empresas objetivo durante el mes. El reciente y notable aumento de las ofertas no solicitadas indica probablemente un fortalecimiento de la actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones tras más de dos años de escaso flujo de operaciones. Los compradores son cada vez más agresivos, ya que consideran que los objetivos están infravalorados en relación con su valor intrínseco, mientras que los consejos de administración se resisten, anticipando valoraciones más altas a medida que mejoran las condiciones del mercado.
Esta dinámica, en la que los compradores están ansiosos por desplegar capital antes de que los precios sigan subiendo y los objetivos esperan mayores ventajas, sugiere que nos encontramos en las primeras fases de un repunte de las fusiones y adquisiciones, impulsado por una confianza renovada, la estabilización de los tipos de interés y la demanda reprimida de transacciones estratégicas. Algunos ejemplos de enero fueron la propuesta de 11.000 millones de dólares de QXO, Inc para adquirir Beacon Roofing Supply, la propuesta no solicitada de 5.300 millones de dólares de Cintas Corp para adquirir UniFirst, la propuesta no solicitada de 500 millones de dólares de Biogen para adquirir Sage Therapeutics y la propuesta no solicitada de 7.000 millones de dólares de Bain Capital para adquirir Surgery Partners.
La emisión de convertibles fue escasa en enero, pero seguimos siendo optimistas de que repuntará tras la temporada de resultados. 2024 fue un año estelar para la emisión, pero todavía hay muchas empresas con convertibles que vencen en los próximos 18 meses que probablemente vuelvan al mercado. Seguimos observando una importante demanda de papel nuevo y muchas empresas que podrían beneficiarse de la emisión de un nuevo convertible, por lo que esperamos muchas nuevas oportunidades durante el próximo año.
Tribuna de opinión de Michael Gabelli, managing director de Gabelli & Partners.
To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
