El poderoso mercado alcista post COVID-19 del S&P 500 comenzó en marzo de 2020 y más que duplicó su rendimiento antes de tocar techo en el máximo histórico del 3 de enero de 2022. Las acciones cerraron el segundo trimestre con una caída del 16% y han caído más del 20% en la primera mitad del año, lo que ha sido la caída más abrupta del S&P 500 en términos de retorno total desde 1962. Los inversores se preparan para más volatilidad en medio de una inflación exacerbada y la expectativa de más subidas de tipos de interés. Además, la guerra Rusia- Ucrania y la incertidumbre asociada a la producción futura de petróleo están dificultando todavía más a inversores y consumidores navegar en el entorno inflacionario actual.
La guerra Rusia- Ucrania, que ya dura más de cuatro meses, ha tenido un impacto severo sobre el comercio mundial, específicamente sobre los precios de las materias primas. La invasión de Ucrania por Rusia llevó a los poderes occidentales a prohibir las importaciones de crudo y productos refinados rusos. Además, la Unión Europea acordó prohibir el 90% del petróleo ruso para finales de este año. En un esfuerzo por contraatacar, Rusia ha cortado la exportación a gas natural a varios países europeos, lo que crea tensión adicional sobre la escasez actual de oferta de energía.
El 15 de junio, la Reserva Federal anunció una subida de 75 puntos básicos en los tipos de interés, la subida más agresiva desde 1994, en un esfuerzo para combatir a la inflación. Jerome Powell, el presidente de la Fed, reconoció que la subida de tipos fue inusualmente grande pero afirmó que no espera que los movimientos de esta magnitud se vuelvan comunes. La Fed continuará monitoreando la inflación y las decisiones se irán tomando “reunión a reunión”. El mercado espera a la siguiente reunión del FOMC, que se realizará entre hoy y mañana, 26 y 27 de julio.
La actividad de M&A se ha mantenido vibrante, al terminar el segundo trimestre de 2022 como el octavo trimestre consecutivo en el que el M&A supera el billón de dólares. Excluyendo las fusiones de SPACs, la actividad total de M&A ascendió a 2,1 billones de dólares, una caída del 14% respecto a la cifra récord de 2,5 billones de dólares del primer semestre de 2021. El sector tecnológico fue el más activo para el M&A, aportando una cifra récord del 25% de las operaciones del primer semestre, o 530.000 millones de dólares, mientras que los sectores Industrial y Financiero aportaron cada uno un 12%. El capital riesgo se mantuvo muy activo, anunciando operaciones por valor de 553.000 millones, aportando un récord del 26% a todas las operaciones del primer semestre.
A pesar del ensanchamiento de los diferenciales en junio, muchas operaciones avanzaron hacia su cierre. Swedish Match (SWMA SS-SEK104.20-Suecia) reveló que recibieron la aprobación de la normativa anti trust estadounidense para ser adquirida por Philip Morris International por 106 coronas suecas por acción en una oferta que expira al final de septiembre. Coherent (COHR-$266.22-NASDAQ) y II-VI Inc. recibieron la aprobación de la SAMR china, que era la última aprobación regulatoria que le faltaba y que permitió que se cerrase la operación a finales de junio. Ultra Electronics (ULE LN-£34.62-London) recibió la aprobación provisional del gobierno británico para ser adquirida por Cobham a 35 libras por acción, o unos 2.500 millones de libras.
Los convertibles terminaron otro mes con caídas, al retroceder las acciones subyacentes y seguir ampliándose los diferenciales de crédito. Con las bolsas a la baja, hemos visto una expansión sustancial de primas en algunos convertibles. Como comentamos en posts anteriores, las emisiones han sido un tema candente en los últimos años, con niveles récord de emisión en 2020 y 2021. El mercado primario se ha ralentizado significativamente en 2022, pero hemos visto un buen número de compañías tantear el terreno, al lanzar acuerdos potenciales para después retirarlos dadas las condiciones del mercado. Estas compañías todavía necesitan capital para operar, y el mercado de convertibles sigue siendo una de las maneras menos caras de captar capital para ellas. Vimos unas pocas nuevas emisiones en mayo y junio, y somos optimistas porque esperamos que el volumen de emisiones repunte en la segunda parte del año. En correcciones anteriores, el mercado de convertibles ha sido uno de los primeros mercados en recuperarse tanto en términos de rentabilidad como de emisiones. Esto se debe a que los convertibles se pueden emitir rápidamente y con menores costes que los bonos tradicionales o las acciones. La opción de convertibilidad permite a los inversores en estas emisiones participar del potencial alcista a medida que se recupera el mercado.
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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
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The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.