Las reformas del gobierno corporativo de Japón siguen dando sus frutos, y las recompras de acciones anunciadas por las empresas japonesas van camino de batir un récord anual. Como muestra el gráfico, el importe acumulado ha alcanzado los 9,3 billones de yenes (57.500 millones de dólares) en 2024, frente a los 9,6 billones de yenes de todo 2023, el mayor total anual registrado.
Y hay más buenas noticias para los accionistas. El número de empresas que anunciaron un aumento del reparto de dividendos se disparó a algo más de mil en los cinco primeros meses de este año, frente a las cerca de 800 del mismo periodo de 2023. A finales de mayo, el 72% de las empresas cotizadas en la sección principal de la Bolsa de Tokio (TSE) habían hecho públicos sus planes para optimizar la gestión del capital, deshacer las participaciones cruzadas o reforzar la rentabilidad para los accionistas.
Se trata de un progreso notable para Japan Inc, que se había forjado una reputación de acaparar efectivo en lugar de compartir los beneficios con los inversores. Y es evidente que aún hay margen de mejora. En el Topix, el 59% de las empresas no financieras tienen saldos netos de caja positivos, frente al 16% de las empresas similares del S&P 500 y el 19% del Stoxx 600 europeo[1]. Con la vuelta de una inflación suave, los beneficios empresariales tienen unas perspectivas prometedoras, lo que apoyará a las empresas que quieran recompensar a los inversores. También se espera que el último plan de la TSE para renovar el Topix empuje a hacer más a las empresas más pequeñas en particular.
La reforma estructural ha sido uno de los principales motores del repunte bursátil en Japón. Pero no podemos ignorar la otra cara de la historia. Una excesiva debilidad del yen podría hacer subir la inflación importada, perjudicando el crecimiento de los salarios reales y el consumo. Y la renta variable japonesa se enfrenta a una competencia cada vez mayor dentro de la región. El sólido crecimiento de la India está atrayendo a los inversores extranjeros y China ha puesto en marcha reformas empresariales similares a las de Japón en un esfuerzo por impulsar las valoraciones de las acciones. Pero si la iniciativa japonesa sigue dando resultados en términos de eficiencia del capital y rentabilidad, su nueva cultura favorable a los accionistas, junto con un cambio hacia una inflación moderada, debería impulsar la confianza a largo plazo en la renta variable japonesa.
Tribuna de Jeremy Osborne, director de renta variable japonesa de Fidelity International.
[1] Según Goldman Sachs.
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