El mercado de capitales es supuestamente racional, pero en realidad no está libre de prejuicios y viejos patrones de pensamiento. Los mercados emergentes, por ejemplo, aún deben lidiar con la reputación de que sólo atraen dinero rápido que volverá rápidamente a los supuestos refugios seguros en caso de turbulencias, o si estos úlitmos comienzan a ofrecer rendimientos más atractivos.
Los propietarios de bonos de mercados emergentes llevan más de medio año escuchando exactamente eso: su clase de activos se está volviendo menos atractiva debido al aumento de los rendimientos de los bonos estadounidenses. Naturalmente, lo primero que hay que tener en cuenta es que las primeras víctimas del aumento de los rendimientos en Estados Unidos son los tenedores de bonos del Tesoro estadounidense. El hecho de que esta pérdida acabe siendo mayor o menor para los tenedores de bonos de mercados emergentes depende en gran medida de cómo evolucione el «diferencial».
Este diferencial es la prima de riesgo que se paga sobre el bono de referencia de un país desarrollado, supuestamente más seguro. Si, como resultado del aumento de los rendimientos del Tesoro, el dinero fluyera de los mercados emergentes a los Estados Unidos, los diferenciales de los bonos de los mercados emergentes tendrían que ampliarse, lo que ejercería una presión aún mayor sobre los precios.
Fuente: Bloomberg Finance L.P. y DWS Investment GmbH, a fecha de 5/17/21
DWS apunta que, como muestra el gráfico, esta supuesta relación no ha cumplido esa máxima. “Muy al contrario”, señala la gestora, “los diferenciales se han estrechado sobre todo cuando los rendimientos estadounidenses han subido”. De este modo, la pérdida de precios que acompañó al aumento de los rendimientos del Tesoro se compensó parcialmente.
Según DWS, este aspecto adquiere aún más relevancia si tenemos en cuenta que los numerosos titulares negativos sobre los bonos de los mercados emergentes pueden confirmar la impresión de que los mercados emergentes presentan un considerable descuento por riesgo. De acuerdo con la gestora, “el diferencial refleja más que adecuadamente los riesgos actuales”.
DWS apunta que, en general, los mercados emergentes tienen hoy una base macroeconómica más sólida que hace una o dos décadas. Además, la creciente demanda de los inversores locales estaría proporcionando más estabilidad a estos mercados. “Si añadimos el aumento de los precios de las materias primas”, señala DWS, “el panorama parece bastante positivo”.
Con todo, el mercado de bonos de los países emergentes sigue siendo una clase de activos muy heterogénea. Mientras que en 2020, tras el colapso de los mercados de capitales en primavera, los inversores tuvieron muchas oportunidades de generar rendimientos más que decentes, “este año tendrán que ser más selectivos”, puntualiza DWS
La gestora refiere que, en muchos países emergentes, los diferenciales han vuelto casi a los niveles anteriores a la crisis, mientras que en otros países siguen cotizando muy por encima de estas cifras. En este sentido, indica que los bonos con calificación de grado de inversión tienen un diferencial medio de 152 puntos básicos (pb), justo por encima de sus mínimos anteriores. En el segmento de alto rendimiento, el diferencial es actualmente de 600 puntos básicos, más de 100 puntos básicos por encima de los mínimos anteriores a la crisis. A modo de comparación, los bonos corporativos estadounidenses sólo ofrecen la mitad de estas primas de diferencial en promedio.
Aunque no se puede descartar que los titulares políticos sigan causando volatilidad en los mercados emergentes a corto plazo, DWS concluye que “los inversores a largo plazo deberían considerar la posibilidad de superar los viejos patrones de pensamiento y prestar más atención a los bonos de los mercados emergentes, al menos por razones de diversificación.”
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