Las perspectivas para el sector inmobiliario estadounidense son “brillantes”, según DWS. La gestora alemana considera que esta clase de activos se verá impulsada por la combinación de unos fundamentales más resistentes y unas condiciones financieras favorables en el país americano.
DWS opina que hay elementos claros de que Estados Unidos experimentará una sólida recuperación. En primer lugar, el estímulo fiscal del país, que asciende a un total de casi 5 billones de dólares – equivalente al 25% del PIB nacional –, es con diferencia el mayor del mundo industrializado. La gestora destaca el volumen de este plan de apoyo en contraste con los paquetes gubernamentales lanzados en Japón (16% respecto a su PIB) y Reino Unido (17%), los más voluminosos tras el americano; o aquellos aprobados en Alemania y Francia, ambos cercanos al 10% del PIB nacional1.
En segundo lugar, DWS destaca las elevadas tasas de ahorro personal en Estados Unidos, que se sitúan en una media del 17% desde principios de 2020, en comparación con el 7% registrado en la década 2010-2019. Según la gestora, el dato da fe del poder adquisitivo acumulado por los consumidores durante la pandemia2.
Asimismo, las campañas de vacunación contra la COVID-19 contribuirán a reactivar la oferta de la economía, apunta DWS. Aunque siguen existiendo algunos riesgos que podrían jugar en contra – como la idoneidad del momento y la escala definitiva de las medidas de apoyo fiscal, los hábitos de consumo de los hogares, la presión inflacionista -, la gestora cree que “la economía estadounidense parece estar en una sólida senda de recuperación ascendente”.
La ubicación no es lo único que importa
El mantra de “ubicación, ubicación y ubicación» no es lo único que importa, según DWS. La gestora pone de relieve que las tendencias macroeconómicas son tan importantes como los fundamentales para el conjunto de los mercados inmobiliarios, como muestra el gráfico de abajo.
En los últimos 20 años, la absorción neta3 ha mostrado una fuerte correlación (0,8) con el crecimiento económico4. Sin embargo, “esto no significa necesariamente que la demanda de espacios vaya a coincidir con el vertiginoso ritmo que podría adoptar la economía”, apunta la gestora. La caída de la absorción en 2020 fue menos pronunciada que la del PIB, lo que sugiere que el repunte podría ser igualmente moderado.
DWS señala que existen ciertos factores estructurales adversos que podrían moderar la demanda en ciertos sectores, como los espacios de oficinas, afectados por el teletrabajo, o el comercio minorista, mermado por el comercio electrónico. Sin embargo, cree que el impacto de estas tendencias debería verse compensado, “al menos parcialmente”, por los vientos de cola que experimentará la demanda de apartamentos, ante la escasez de viviendas, y la de espacios industriales, necesarios para el sector del comercio electrónico y el logístico.
* Crecimiento interanual medio a lo largo de cuatro trimestres.
** Previsiones del FMI.
*** La absorción se entiende como el porcentaje de nueva demanda de espacios inmobiliarios respecto al inventario total de propiedades disponibles en un período de cuatro trimestres.
Fuentes: Oficina de Análisis Económico de EE.UU., Moody’s Analytics, FMI y DWS Investment GmbH a partir de abril de 2021.
La disciplina en la oferta también ayudará a promover la recuperación
El comportamiento disciplinado que espera caracterizar la oferta también ayudará a promover la recuperación, opina DWS. En este sentido, la gestora destaca que, durante el primer trimestre de 2021, la puesta en marcha de nuevos proyectos de construcción para espacios multifamiliares y comerciales registró un descenso del 10% y del 30% respectivamente, en comparación con el cierre de 20195.
DWS señala que, aunque los mercados de deuda se descongelaron desde mediados de 2020, un 26% neto de los bancos continuó endureciendo los requisitos para la concesión de préstamos destinados a la construcción en el mismo período6. Mientras, los costes para la construcción aumentaron un 6% interanual en marzo, la cifra más alta en 12 años, al dispararse los precios de materias primas clave como el acero y la madera7.
“En nuestra opinión, la oferta moderada y el resurgimiento de la demanda estabilizarán la ocupación y los alquileres, primero, en el sector de los apartamentos y, más tarde, en 2022, en los sectores de las oficinas y el comercio minorista. Por su parte, la propiedad industrial probablemente se mantendrá fuerte en todo momento”, concluye DWS.
1 . Moody’s Analytics, a fecha de abril de 2021.
2 . Oficina del Censo, a fecha de marzo de 2021.
3 . La absorción se entiende como el porcentaje de nueva demanda de espacios inmobiliarios respecto al inventario total de propiedades disponibles a lo largo de cuatro trimestres. Las cifras de este análisis incluyen todos los subsegmentos inmobiliarios.
4 . Bureau of Economic Analysis (PIB); CBRE-EA (absorción); estimaciones de DWS. A fecha de marzo de 2021.
5 . Dodge Data & Analytics (construcción comercial); Oficina del Censo (construcción multifamiliar). A fecha marzo de 2021.
6 . Reserva Federal, a fecha de marzo de 2021.
7 . ENR a fecha de marzo de 2021.
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