Responsable del 45% del PIB global1, del 63% del crecimiento de este indicador2 y de cerca de tres quintos de la población del planeta3, Asia es una potencia económica que, en 2020, se estima que aportará la mitad de la clase media mundial4. Ahora, cuenta con un mercado de crédito en moneda fuerte de tres billones de dólares que se beneficia de su nuevo estatus. En la primera parte de este análisis, DWS explora las oportunidades de inversión que esto implica.
El notable crecimiento económico de Asia ha sido ampliamente analizado, pero el interés histórico de los inversores se ha centrado en la renta variable por dos motivos: la búsqueda de exposición al crecimiento exponencial y la falta de emisión de deuda después de la crisis financiera de 1997. Sin embargo, la sufrida a nivel global en 2008 reconfiguró el escenario. “La expansión significativa y el incremento de la madurez de su mercado crediticio, así como el crecimiento de la región -aunque el ritmo haya descendido un poco- obligan a mirar a Asia de nuevo”, aseguran el jefe de renta fija de la gestora, Henry Wong, y el especialista en renta fija Robert Gibbs en el documento.
El análisis de ambos sugiere que el panorama de inversión en renta fija en Asia está cambiando de varias maneras. “Sobre todo, dentro de los mercados crediticios en moneda fuerte, Asia parece la mejor posicionada entre las regiones emergentes para convertirse en una alternativa viable a los mercados estadounidense y europeo para el inversor global”. El mercado asiático en moneda fuerte, que incluye a emisores soberanos y cuasi-soberanos, superó el billón de dólares por primera vez el pasado julio, cinco veces más que en 2005 y al nivel del mercado corporativo high yield de EE.UU. (1,25 billones)5.
Para la gestora, en parte, está relacionado con el aumento del tamaño del mercado de deuda corporativa asiática, responsable de cerca del 87% del crecimiento total de la deuda corporativa emergente externa en el último lustro6. Dentro de la región, China ha sido el motor más importante, pero también han contribuido países como Indonesia, India o Corea del Sur. Aunque la tasa de crecimiento anualizado del 19,85% experimentada entre 2008 y el tercer trimestre de 20197 no parece sostenible, DWS espera que el tamaño absoluto del mercado continúe expandiéndose.
Las valoraciones
Los inversores que se acercan a los mercados asiáticos en moneda fuerte esperando una extraordinaria compensación de los spreads deberían ser realistas en sus expectativas, advierte la gestora. En ese sentido, apunta que, en un contexto desafiante para los inversores globales, el JPM Asian Credit Index (JACI) negocia a un “spread to worst” frente a las letras del tesoro estadounidense de 210 puntos básicos (a 30 de septiembre).
Asimismo, los spreads del crédito asiático investment grade se ubicaron a 139 puntos básicos, y los del high yield, a 559. “Las modestas primas de riesgo crediticias reflejan que Asia es fundamentalmente una región de alta calidad”, apunta. De hecho, una vez alcanzado, la mayoría de los países de la región han mantenido su rating de grado de inversión y solo cinco mercados (Sri Lanka, Pakistán, Bangladesh, Mongolia y Vietnam) cuentan con una calificación inferior.
Los riesgos
Puede que algunos inversores perciban un mayor nivel de riesgo en el crédito asiático, pero algunos indicadores podrían sugerir lo contrario. La volatilidad de la rentabilidad total de los bonos corporativos asiáticos se compara favorablemente con los estadounidenses, especialmente en el espacio del investment grade, donde el diferencial de duración está más marcado.
La volatilidad de los spreads tampoco muestra ninguna diferencia significativa entre los dos mercados de high yield en los últimos cinco años. Para DWS, “esto significa que los inversores en renta fija asiática se benefician de rentabilidades más altas, un menor riesgo de duración, la comparación a mercados estadounidenses y, en el caso del high yield, niveles comparables de volatilidad en los spreads”.
La habilidad del mercado de bonos asiáticos en moneda fuerte para soportar una crisis quedó latente en 2018, cuando la región se encontraba en el centro de una prolongada volatilidad de mercado. La gestora recuerda que las preocupaciones sobre una posible ralentización profunda en China y el conflicto comercial con EE.UU., así como las expectativas de un aumento de los tipos y los sucesos crediticios idiosincráticos, “pesaron en los mercados asiáticos”.
Al final, sin embargo, el crédito IG en dólares registró una rentabilidad anual del 0,04% y el mercado de bonos corporativos high yield de la región cayó un 3,34%8, pese a que el mercado high yield estuvo cerrado a nuevas emisiones durante varios meses. En el mismo periodo, el crédito IG estadounidense cayó un 2,25% y el high yield un 2,26%9.
“El rendimiento del crédito asiático no fue, por ende, distinto al experimentado por el mercado estadounidense”, afirma la gestora al insistir en que esto subraya la evolución de Asia en los últimos años: la volatilidad se ha ido reduciendo, mientras que la emisión y participación de la región ha ido aumentando. “El efecto neto es que cada vez muestra más características de un mercado desarrollado”, sentencia.
1. GDP based on purchasing power parity. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2019
2. World Economic Forum, IMF, 21 March 2019
3. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2019
4. The Asian Century is set to begin, 26 March 2019, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/520cb6f6-2958-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7
5. Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index, as of 30 September 2019
6. JP Morgan Emerging Markets Corporate Strategy Presentation, as of September 2019
7. J.P. Morgan Asian Credit Index, 30 September 2019
8. Asia corporate market performance is based on BOFAML Asia Dollar IG Corporate index (ACIG) and BOFAML Asia Dollar HY Corporate index (ACHY).
9. US corporate market performance is based on BOFAML US Corporate Index and BOFAML US High Yield Index.
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