Si bien los diferenciales de los bonos corporativos con grado de inversión (medidos por índice ML-Global Broad Market Corporate) se han comprimido desde que tocaron niveles excepcionales en marzo, siguen situándose en niveles elevados con respecto a su nivel promedio. A fecha de 1 de mayo de 2020, los diferenciales se encontraban en los 209 puntos básicos, frente a los 137 puntos básicos que representan su media histórica, los niveles más amplios desde 2012.
Por eso, en Ninety One, gestora internacional de origen sudafricano anteriormente conocida como Investec AM, creen que los bonos corporativos con grado de inversión proporcionan unos rendimientos atractivos frente a los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense. Con el apoyo de las medidas política monetaria y fiscal, y con menos exposición al nivel de beneficios futuros que sus equivalentes en renta variable, podrían ser un universo adecuado para los inversores cautelosos.
Además, en el pasado, los rendimientos de las asignaciones a bonos corporativos con grado de inversión han sido sólidos en periodos en los que los diferenciales han sido elevados, por eso en Ninety One, creen que la oportunidad sigue estando ahí), muchos emisores con calificación de grado de inversión son negocios sólidos, con flujos de efectivo estables y niveles de deuda manejables.
El equipo gestor de la estrategia Investment Grade Corporate Bond de Ninety One, formado por Jeff Boswell y Garland Hansmann, es consciente de los riesgos que existen en el horizonte, pero se sienten cómodos con las bajas probabilidades históricas de incumplimiento entre los bonos corporativos de grado de inversión.
El mercado de bonos corporativos de grado de inversión debería ser uno de los principales beneficiarios de las significativas medidas de estímulo monetario y fiscal implementadas a nivel global. Por ejemplo, del anuncio de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos en el que comunicaba su intención de comprar bonos corporativos en el mercado secundario.
La estrategia Investment Grade Corporate Bond de Ninety One
Lanzada en el año 2000, la estrategia tiene un largo historial de rendimientos. Agnóstica a nivel regional, la estrategia se centra en un amplio conjunto de oportunidades entre Estados Unidos y Europa, recibiendo el apoyo de un equipo global integrado que opera como una unidad coherente. Realiza una selección cuidadosa y una gestión rigurosa del riesgo construida a partir del marco de inversión “Compelling Forces” ™, creado a medida por la gestora Ninety One para sus inversores.
Unos buenos rendimientos históricos en periodos en los que los diferenciales son elevados
Los gráficos a continuación muestran los rendimientos del índice ML-Global Broad Market Corporate en subsecuentes periodos en los que los diferenciales han estado por encima de los 200 puntos básicos y en los que los rendimientos han estado por encima de 2,4%, desde la fecha del lanzamiento del índice en 1996. Basándose en datos mensuales, denominados en dólares estadounidenses.
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Indices
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Por Meritxell Sedo
