Considerar cómo miraremos hacia atrás a esta pandemia y la veremos en retrospectiva ayuda a predecir el futuro. La historia está marcada por eventos trascendentales, tanto buenos como malos, pero los que definen una era son los fuertes truenos que provocan ecos y sacuden las cosas después de sus primeros destellos. Esta pandemia es uno de esos eventos épicos. Golpeará duramente distintos aspectos y hará que se desvíen en direcciones diferentes.
El 11 de septiembre de 2001 afectó a los viajes en avión por un tiempo, pero a la seguridad en los aeropuertos de forma permanente. En términos más generales, afectó a las políticas sobre Irak o la energía, incluso hoy en día. Con esa mentalidad, podemos ver las olas que las grandes tormentas empujan hacia las costas del futuro. La pandemia puede afectar a las elecciones de EE.UU. y complicar muchos asuntos locales y mundiales, como lo hicieron las últimas recesiones.
Esto incluye las relaciones económicas y políticas entre EE.UU. y China, las perspectivas para las economías emergentes, la unidad de la Unión Europea (UE), la salud fiscal de EE.UU., los tipos de interés nominales y reales, los impuestos, la atención sanitaria, la banca, el comercio, la migración, la globalización, el medioambiente, etcétera. Esta pandemia perjudica enormemente a nuestros niveles de vida inmediatos, pero podría provocar innovaciones beneficiosas a largo plazo.
Los efectos son difíciles de prever, cuantificar y totalizar; tanto los negativos a corto plazo como los positivos a largo plazo. Pero, por ahora, no vemos ninguna razón para cambiar nuestra postura cautelosa. A diferencia de muchas recesiones, esta crisis social y económica tiene su origen en una fuerza de la naturaleza más que en la humanidad. Esto puede hacer que los inversores sean más pacientes y optimistas y que perdonen el daño financiero o que toleren ese riesgo. Sin embargo, la amenaza es real. Seguimos prefiriendo el crédito corporativo de menor riesgo y renta variable defensiva y de crecimiento.
Los ciclos nuevos traen nuevas tendencias
La recesión que trajo el coronavirus provocó el inicio de un nuevo ciclo, pero el liderazgo no puede cambiar hasta que el horizonte se despeje. Sabemos poco sobre el curso que tomamos ahora o el mar por el que navegamos. El shock abrupto no permitió que las tendencias de los ciclos anteriores se desarrollaran plenamente y, sin embargo, trae otras nuevas que podrían superar a las anteriores. Las recesiones y los primeros años de un ciclo son muy inciertos y no respaldan los picos PER de las ganancias estimadas de recuperación o los cambios de liderazgo en la búsqueda de oportunidades antes de que se vean algunos atisbos de una recuperación del poder adquisitivo y los balances.
Los informes confirman la recesión
Como de costumbre, los grandes bancos dominaron la primera semana de la temporada de ganancias. Los resultados fueron muy débiles debido a la provisión para préstamos fallidos dirigida a aumentar las reservas para pérdidas de créditos. Además, los bancos adoptaron las reglas contables de las pérdidas crediticias esperadas. Esta nueva norma de los Principios de Contabilidad Generalmente Aceptados (GAAP) de Estados Unidos exige que los bancos estimen las pérdidas crediticias totales que se sufrirán en un préstamo a lo largo de toda su vida útil en lugar de tomar provisiones para pérdidas en función del incumplimiento de cada período.
La adopción de esta norma aumentó las reservas para pérdidas con cargos directamente al balance. Esperamos que las provisiones para préstamos fallidos estén en niveles del primer trimestre de media para todo 2020. Un préstamo aplazado no se considerará moroso ni generará cargos a las reservas si se realiza de acuerdo con el programa de indulgencia. Las reservas para pérdidas probablemente alcancen su máximo en el segundo trimestre.
La última semana de abril, que es la segunda de la temporada de ganancias, se reportó un tercio del beneficio por acción (BPA) del primer trimestre del S&P. Se reportaron muchas multinacionales no financieras, especialmente las grandes farmacéuticas y biotecnológicas y otras blue chips no financieras. Es entre las semanas 3-5, cuando presentan los informes la mayoría de las firmas del sector industrial, energético, materiales, automoción, minorista, y otros no financieros más vulnerables a esta recesión.
Sin embargo, la mayoría de las empresas mega-cap de tecnología y comunicaciones informan en mayo. Esperamos que el BPA del primer trimestre del S&P sea de 28-31 dólares o caiga un 20-30% anual y que el del segundo trimestre sea de 10-20 dólares o disminuya un 50-75%. Nuestro BPA del S&P estimado para 2020 es de 110 dólares.
Las medidas de prevención
Anticipamos que las directrices federales de bloqueo serán levantadas por muchos Estados a mediados de mayo. La mayoría probablemente implementarán medidas de apertura para industrias y servicios públicos específicos y con reglas de la ciudad y el condado que consideren las tasas de infección y factores de riesgo como la densidad de población. Encontramos que el ritmo de contagio aún es preocupante en muchas grandes ciudades de EE.UU. La prevención probablemente continuará por más tiempo en estas ciudades y por parte de sus instituciones y la ciudadanía de forma individual.
Tribuna de David Bianco, CIO para América de DWS
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