Muchas ciudades e instituciones de todo el mundo están anteponiendo la prevención a la producción, restringiendo actividades hasta marzo o más tarde para contener el virus. Las acciones locales y la prohibición federal de EE.UU. de viajar durante 30 días a/desde Europa y partes de Asia son conmociones económicas globales tremendas que traerán una gigantesca destrucción a corto plazo del lado de la oferta y la demanda.
Estas disrupciones son comparables o peores que las que se produjeron después del 11 de septiembre de 2001 y con la crisis financiera a finales de 2008. Sin embargo, esta conmoción y la recesión económica deben ser breves; sin guerras posteriores ni reparaciones prolongadas de los balances. El crecimiento del PIB debería repuntar con fuerza en la segunda mitad de 2020.
Además, pensamos que este choque económico será menos perjudicial para los beneficios del S&P que en recesiones pasadas; porque las perturbaciones de este shock de seguridad sanitaria se inclinan hacia los servicios en persona. Mientras, el S&P 500 se inclina hacia la economía virtual o los servicios electrónicos, como la tecnología, la comunicación y la venta minorista en internet; que son aproximadamente un tercio de los beneficios del S&P.
Los servicios virtuales y los esenciales de salud, bienes de consumo y servicios públicos son ahora cerca de la mitad de las ganancias del S&P. Aunque la industria manufacturera pesada y los servicios financieros siguen contribuyendo en gran medida a los ingresos, lo hacen mucho menos que en otro momento, la energía es minoritaria, y es poco probable que se produzca un aumento de los impagos de hipotecas y de las dificultades en el sistema financiero, como en 2008.
Recortes en las previsiones
Pronosticamos que el beneficio por acción (BPA) del S&P caerá alrededor del 10% respecto a los 164 dólares de 2019, hasta alcanzar los 150 dólares en 2020. Esperamos que el S&P del primer semestre baje entre un 15% y un 20% anual, seguido de ganancias planas en la segunda mitad del año. Nuestras estimaciones trimestrales del BPA del S&P son: 33+34+41+42 = 150 dólares. Introducimos el BPA del S&P estimado para 2021 de 171 dólares. Ajustando con unos tipos de interés más bajos, el precio del petróleo y las perspectivas de capex relacionadas, ahora estimamos el BPA del S&P normalizado de 2020 en 160-170 dólares.
Cuando ocurren recesiones, los inversores a largo plazo se centran en el BPA normalizado o de recuperación para medir las valoraciones, y también utilizan métricas como el BPA del S&P excluyendo los negativos. Aunque las ganancias negativas pueden amenazar con la quiebra en algunas empresas, no son perpetuas y enmascaran el poder de ganancias del índice. Prevemos grandes pérdidas en la primera mitad del año en aerolíneas, energía y hoteles, y caídas en las ganancias del sector minorista, automóviles, transporte, restaurantes y aviación. Muchas industrias recibirán liquidez del gobierno e indulgencia regulatoria y de los acreedores.
Durante las recesiones de 1982, 1991 y 2001, el BPA del S&P cayó cerca de un 20% desde su pico hasta su punto más bajo. Los descensos fueron liderados por caídas del 25-50% en energía, materiales e industrias. Las ganancias de los sectores de tecnología y consumo discrecional cayeron menos que los otros, aunque más que el promedio del S&P, pero sobre todo en hardware y automoción, que son partes mucho más pequeñas de estos dos sectores hoy en día. Excepto en 2008-2009, cuando el BPA cayó un 45% impulsado por el sector financiero, los ingresos de este, especialmente la banca, no suelen disminuir más que el promedio del índice.
Por otro lado, el S&P 500 descendió un 27% desde su pico de 3.386 del 19 de febrero hasta su reciente depresión de 2.480, una de las mayores caídas de su historia. Nuestra previsión es que volverá a sus mínimos a corto plazo, muy posiblemente más bajos, pero luego se negociará en un amplio rango de entre 2.500-3.000 hasta las elecciones estadounidenses. Nuestra estimación intrínseca de valor razonable para el S&P a finales de 2020 es de 3.150, nuestro objetivo de fin de año es de 3.100 y nuestro objetivo de 12 meses hasta finales de marzo de 2021 es de 3.200.
Incertidumbre y valoraciones
La viabilidad y la visibilidad de las estimaciones de las ganancias normalizadas serán cruciales para transitar este mercado. Nuestras preferencias sectoriales se inclinan hacia valoraciones atractivas donde tenemos más confianza en las estimaciones de ganancias normalizadas. Nuestra confianza se ve muy afectada en el sector industrial, el de materiales y el financiero y está destrozada en el energético.
Nuestra estimación de 150 dólares para el BPA del S&P en 2020 incluye solo 1 dólar de energía, cuando suele ser de aproximadamente 6. El sector de consumo discrecional -excluyendo las ventas por internet- y las aerolíneas dentro del industrial son los más afectados por este shock en los servicios prestados en persona. Aquí la incertidumbre es menor en cuanto a las ganancias normalizadas, pero más bien cuando se produzca un retorno a la normalidad. Es probable que las existencias del consumo discrecional sean las más sensibles a la evolución del virus a nivel nacional.
Regresar al trabajo será prioritario
Esperamos que el desempleo salte temporalmente, pero, siempre que las nuevas infecciones diarias se estabilicen en las próximas semanas, creemos que muchas empresas y empleados comenzarán a buscar formas seguras de regresar al trabajo con precauciones. Lavarse las manos frecuentemente, desinfectar las instalaciones, distanciarse, usar mascarillas y controlar la temperatura será la nueva norma. Pero no ir a trabajar es insostenible.
Tribuna de David Bianco, director de inversiones en América de DWS
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