Una de las sobreponderaciones tácticas de DWS en la actualidad es su estrategia de mercados emergentes. En vista del optimismo relativo y absoluto que rodea a estas regiones de mayor crecimiento, “es importante reiterar que los mercados emergentes pueden representar una importante asignación estratégica a largo plazo en las carteras de los clientes”, señala la gestora.
En el primero de una serie de análisis sobre la inclusión de emergentes en carteras bien diversificadas, DWS se centra en el riesgo absoluto de este tipo de activo, que a menudo puede contrastar con la percepción de los inversores que se encuentra arraigada en el sesgo cualitativo.
No hay tanto riesgo
Desde que a comienzos de 1980 se acuñó por primera vez el término “mercados emergentes”, estas economías han experimentado un gran número de periodos desafiantes de estrés económico. En los 80 y en los 90, las crisis financieras de Asia y Latinoamérica fueron causadas por la inestabilidad económica y balances de deuda considerables, exacerbados por las marcadas salidas de capital de inversores externos. Estas experiencias pueden sesgar a veces las preconcepciones de los inversores fuera de los mercados emergentes, advierte la gestora.
Hoy en día, las reformas económicas y políticas “top-down” y la reforma corporativa “bottom-up” suponen una parte integral de la expansión económica a lo largo de las regiones emergentes. Estas reformas estructurales han ayudado a reducir la frecuencia del riesgo país. De hecho, combinado con una canasta bien diversificada de mercados emergentes, el MSCI Emerging Markets Index, medido en divisa local, ha registrado un nivel menor de volatilidad que el MSCI USA Index el 75% del tiempo desde 2001.
“Desde nuestra perspectiva, creemos que un universo de inversión bien diversificado contribuye a este menor nivel de volatilidad en los índices”, afirma DWS. La exposición regional, industrial y por país que resulta de la metodología del índice ponderado según la capitalización bursátil de los emergentes genera un nivel de diversificación, así como liquidez y potencial de inversión.
Además, construyendo un índice a partir de países idiosincráticos con niveles más bajos de correlación entre sí, el MSCI Emerging Markets ha registrado un nivel de volatilidad más bajo que casi todos sus integrantes individuales a lo largo de las dos últimas décadas.
Para seguir ilustrando los beneficios potenciales de construir un índice bien diversificado como es el MSCI Emerging Markets, pueden mostrarse las volatilidades de las carteras de los países emergentes, comenzando por el miembro más grande. “Si agregamos países de forma gradual a la cartera, por orden de capitalización bursátil, podemos observar la caída del riesgo empírico de volatilidad”, apunta la gestora.
El siguiente gráfico muestra que, comenzando por el país ponderado más grande y terminando por el más pequeño, la inclusión gradual de un miembro al índice reduce la volatilidad.
Incluso cuando se eligieron al azar, la incorporación de países al índice pudo demostrar el impacto potencial de la diversificación por países en el universo emergente. “Centrándonos en los 10 miembros principales (aproximadamente el 90% del índice) y utilizando la misma metodología basada en la capitalización, podemos ilustrar el máximo, el mínimo y la media de volatilidades empíricas para cada combinación de ‘x’ número de países”.
Como muestra este último gráfico, al aumentar la cantidad de países, se observa tanto una reducción en la volatilidad como una gama más reducida de posibles resultados de volatilidad que pueden resultar de la excesiva concentración.
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