El índice Refinitiv Qualified Global Convertible obtuvo una rentabilidad del 5,61% en lo que va de año (datos a 27 de agosto de 2024). Aunque está lejos de la rentabilidad de los mercados mundiales de renta variable de alta capitalización, su rendimiento se ha aproximado más al del índice mundial de renta variable de pequeña capitalización y ha superado a muchas exposiciones de renta fija en lo que va de año. Como un híbrido entre la renta fija y la renta variable, el índice de convertibles está cumpliendo lo que se espera de él.
En caso de que los inversores esperen un escenario equilibrado de crecimiento estable y menor inflación (conocido como “goldilocks” en inglés), la duración podría ser un motor de rentabilidad, pero no tanto la compresión de los diferenciales, dados los ya estrechos diferenciales observados en el segmento de alto rendimiento. La mayoría de las empresas subyacentes en el índice mundial de bonos convertibles permanecen con valoraciones significativamente inferiores a sus máximos. Esto significa que los bonos convertibles no solo se beneficiarían de los movimientos en la duración, debido a los tipos más bajos (aunque menos que los bonos corporativos), sino también del impacto que esto tiene sobre las valoraciones de las empresas subyacentes. Así pues, los convertibles también deberían beneficiarse de la participación en la renta variable. Los bonos convertibles están muy expuestos a empresas de mediana capitalización y/o de crecimiento (Figura 2) que probablemente se beneficien de los tipos de interés más bajos, algo que vimos durante el repunte de julio tras el dato de inflación de junio inferior a lo esperado (Figura 1).
Fuente: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance, L.P., a 27 de agosto de 2024. Los rendimientos de los índices no están gestionados y no reflejan la deducción de comisiones o gastos. Los rendimientos de los índices reflejan todas las partidas de ingresos, ganancias y pérdidas, así como la reinversión de dividendos y otros ingresos, según proceda.
Un escenario de aterrizaje forzoso (“hard landing”) podría ser propiciado por una inflación tenaz que obligara a los bancos centrales a mantener los tipos de interés, o incluso a subirlos aún más, lo que provocaría una ampliación de los diferenciales de crédito. En este caso, los bonos convertibles ofrecerán un perfil más interesante que el high yield y menor sensibilidad a la renta variable que una cartera de renta variable pura de gran capitalización, dada la valoración relativamente baja de la parte de pequeña y mediana capitalización de la cartera (alrededor del 60% a finales de junio de 2024). Además, los bonos convertibles son una puesta “long” sobre volatilidad y deberían beneficiarse de un aumento de la volatilidad en un escenario de aterrizaje forzoso. La baja sensibilidad a los tipos de interés (con una duración de alrededor de 2,7) en comparación con los índices globales de high yield y de grado de inversión proporciona cierta protección relativa. El gráfico 1 también pone de relieve la protección de caídas de los bonos convertibles en relación con la renta variable durante las rápidas ventas de principios de agosto tras la liquidación del ‘carry trade’ del yen y el repunte de la volatilidad.
La hipótesis más probable de un escenario de aterrizaje suave con recortes graduales de los tipos debería beneficiar a las empresas de pequeña y mediana capitalización, dados sus recientes malos resultados en comparación con las empresas de gran capitalización. Esto se debe al impacto de los tipos más elevados en sus necesidades de financiación, en particular, en relación con las empresas de gran capitalización. Ahora estamos a punto de entrar en un ciclo de relajación de los tipos de interés más generalizado en los mercados desarrollados. Después de que el Banco Central Europeo se convirtiera en el primer banco central del G-4 en recortar los tipos en junio, la Reserva Federal realizó su primer recorte de 50 pbs en la reunión del 18 de septiembre. Por lo tanto, cada vez está más cerca el momento en que los inversores considerarán a las empresas que puedan beneficiarse de una curva de rendimientos más pronunciada, lo que podría dar lugar a nuevas ganancias bursátiles hacia finales de año y durante 2025.
Fuente: State Street Global Advisors, Bloomberg Finance, L.P., a 31 de julio de 2024.
También cabe señalar que los emisores están volviendo al mercado en 2024, con más de 70.000 millones de dólares en lo que va de año (datos a 27 de agosto de 2024). Los bonos convertibles suelen ser atractivos para la diversificación, dado su perfil sectorial diferenciado y a veces único frente a los índices tradicionales de renta variable y renta fija. Esto resulta especialmente claro en la medida en que el mercado primario es actualmente muy dinámico (con más de 18.000 millones de dólares en emisiones en mayo, 13.000 millones en junio y más de 8.000 millones en julio), con diversos emisores que acuden al mercado ayudando a aumentar el cupón medio del universo. Este año podríamos asistir a algunas emisiones gigantescas en todo el mercado, como por ejemplo la sorprendente reaparición de Alibaba con un bono de 5.000 millones de dólares en mayo. Curiosamente, no se ha producido ningún deterioro notable de la calidad media que pudiera vincularse a empresas con problemas de liquidez que acuden a este mercado en busca de financiación. La mayoría de los nombres son empresas que están entre el grado de inversión y el alto rendimiento y que financian el desarrollo del crecimiento, en lugar de empresas basura que buscan un salvavidas.
El riesgo de impago es de hecho real, dado el deterioro de las perspectivas económicas. Sin embargo, las inversiones indexadas pueden ofrecer algunas ventajas reales. De hecho, creemos que la diversificación de la cartera ayuda a limitar el riesgo idiosincrático. En el índice Refinitiv Qualified Global Convertible, la ponderación de un emisor no puede superar el 4% y los 10 principales emisores representan menos del 14% en conjunto. En total, hay más de 345 bonos convertibles subyacentes.
Con unos niveles de cupón más elevados, un entorno de tipos históricamente «normalizado» y un posible repunte de la volatilidad, a los inversores en bonos convertibles se les está pagando por esperar y es probable que se beneficien de exposiciones temáticas fundamentales a la renta variable como la inteligencia artificial, la atención sanitaria y la energía a largo plazo, y simplemente de un giro de los tipos a más corto plazo.
Por qué los ETF SPDR® para bonos convertibles
State Street Global Advisors cuenta con una sólida experiencia en la gestión de índices para la compleja clase de activos de bonos convertibles, con cerca de 4.800 millones de dólares gestionados en dos ETF. En UCITS ETFs ofrecemos varias clases de acciones con cobertura de divisas de nuestro ETF global de bonos convertibles – en EUR, GBP, CHF y USD – facilitando el cambio entre ellas.
- ZPRC GY- SPDR® Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond UCITS ETF (Dist)
- SPF1 GY- SPDR® Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond EUR Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc)
- GCVC SE- SPDR® Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond CHF Hdg UCITS ETF (Acc)
- GCVGx I2- SPDR® Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond GBP Hdg UCITS ETF (Dist)
- SPF2 GY- SPDR® Refinitiv Global Convertible Bond USD Hdg UCITS ETF (Dist)
El 14 de octubre, SPDR celebra el décimo aniversario de la salida del ETF de Bonos Convertibles Globales. Durante este tiempo el fondo ha acumulado activos por valor de $1.470 millones. Desde julio de 2024 el ETF disfruta de clasificación Oro de Morningstar,
Tribuna de Antoine Lesné, Director de la Estrategia de ETF de State Street Global Advisors.
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