August Has Passed… and the Market Is Once Again Suffering From Excesses

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The correction in the S&P 500’s price at the beginning of August was resolved almost as quickly as it occurred, and the market is once again suffering from the same symptoms of overvaluation and technical and sentiment-driven excesses.

The market is nearing overbought territory again, and retail investor surveys are once more showing excessive confidence, as evidenced by investors’ reaction to Nvidia’s results on Wednesday, with a post-market drop that reached 7%.

The numbers highlighted the potential of the business: the company continues to exceed consensus expectations in sales, margins, and EPS quarter after quarter. Its outlook for medium-term demand maintained the optimism of previous quarters. “We expect to grow our data center business significantly next year. Blackwell is going to completely change the game for the industry,” said Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia. Additionally, concerns about delays in the launch of its new product, Blackwell, were alleviated. However, the strong performance and the CEO’s comments—unclear regarding the ROI impact of the massive GPU investments by companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or Meta—did not fully satisfy investors’ optimism.

This is relevant because Nvidia is one of those rare cases where a single company, or sometimes a single industry, like technology in 1999, becomes so significant that it comes to dominate the macroeconomic landscape by embodying the essence of the generative AI theme. This is the underlying idea behind the stock market rally over the last two years, since the official launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

The numbers don’t lie: this year, the GPU company contributed about 230 points to the S&P 500 before the earnings release, accounting for 27% of the total returns the U.S. index has generated so far this year.

Maintaining business momentum like the one Nvidia has shown over the past 12 months is not sustainable, and its growth is slowing both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter—although, to be clear, sequential growth is expected to pick up again in the fourth quarter as Blackwell begins reaching end customers, while demand for Hopper remains strong.

At a macro level, a similar situation is unfolding, despite the desire to celebrate Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole a few weeks ago. Despite the strong U.S. GDP data for the second quarter and the July retail sales figures, there is evidence of weaker growth. Manufacturing activity has contracted again, and the U.S. consumer, the main driver of global expansion over the past two years, is now less dynamic.

Real disposable income is growing at only 0.9% year-over-year, and a number of multinationals tied to household spending disappointed during earnings season (e.g., McDonald’s, Ford, Alphabet, or LVMH). The excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been spent, fiscal policy will be less generous—regardless of who ends up in the White House in 2025, and especially if it’s Donald Trump—and the labor market is showing signs of fatigue.

Cumulative unemployment claims suggest that companies are reluctant to hire, and while the most optimistic observers attribute the activation of the Sahm rule to the exceptional nature of Tropical Storm Beryl, which impacted the U.S. Gulf Coast in July, the rise in unemployment over the past 12 months is affecting not just Texas but 80% of the 51 states that make up the union.

While it is true that payroll growth continues to be positive—and is usually negative in the context of economic contractions—this fact confirms that immigration is likely the main cause of the rise in unemployment from a low of 3.4% to 4.3%. We find ourselves in the unusual situation of rising unemployment alongside a growing economy because the imbalance is coming from the supply side of workers.

Demand is moderating, as indicated by the JOLT (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data on voluntary quits and hires. Although the economy is still creating a reasonable number of jobs each month, and inflation-adjusted private sector wages are increasing by 2.5%, these figures do not pose an imminent threat to GDP. However, growth has peaked, is deflating, and raises doubts about the ability to meet the ambitious EPS growth projections that consensus is forecasting for 2025.

On the geopolitical front, the potential implications of Harris overtaking Trump in betting markets (according to PredictIt, but not Polymarket) and in polls do not appear to be adequately priced into stocks. Investors don’t like the economic platform of either candidate, but in Harris’s case, it is assumed that Republicans will control the House of Representatives or the Senate (if not both), which would prevent much of her fiscal agenda from coming to fruition. In Trump’s case, he would have near-unilateral authority on tariffs, creating risk regardless of what happens with Congress.

The CEO of Wealth Management at J.P. Morgan Will Join UBS as Head of US Wealth

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Michael Camacho, CEO of Wealth Management Solutions at J.P. Morgan, announced on Tuesday that he will be joining UBS as Head of Wealth for the U.S. market.

“After 33 incredible years at J.P. Morgan, I will be moving to UBS as Head of US Wealth. This decision was not made lightly, as my time at J.P. Morgan was filled with invaluable experiences, personal growth, and cherished relationships,” Camacho posted on LinkedIn.

As CEO of J.P. Morgan Wealth Management Solutions, Camacho is responsible for all wealth management products, services, and platforms, including investments, lending, and banking.

Before assuming his current role, he was Head of the Asset Management Investment Platform and developed its ETF and index businesses. Prior to joining Asset Management, he spent 25 years in the Investment Bank, holding several leadership positions, including Global Head of Commodities, Head of Structured Investments in the Americas, and Head of Exotic Rates Trading in dollars, according to his biography on the social network.

Additionally, he is a member of the Asset and Wealth Management and Global Private Bank Operating Committees and serves as the executive sponsor of the Hispanic Leadership Forum within Asset and Wealth Management.

He holds a degree in Computer Science from Columbia University and a master’s in Finance from New York University.

Financial Advisors Will Lean Even More Towards ETFs in the Coming Years

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Advisors are increasing allocations to ETFs as they become more comfortable with the product and its use across a broader range of asset classes, according to the latest edition of The Cerulli Edge-U.S. Monthly Product Trends.

According to the study, which analyzes ETF flows up to July 2024, nearly all advisors (90%) use the product in some way.

On the other hand, while active managers can add value, 61% of advisors agree or strongly agree that it is difficult to identify active managers who consistently outperform the indices.

Hybrid RIAs advisors allocate the highest percentage of assets to actively managed ETFs across all channels, and numerous asset managers are dedicating resources to expanding their product range to include more active ETFs.

In July, mutual fund assets grew by $332 billion (1.7%) over $39.5 billion in total net outflows, representing an organic growth rate of -0.2%.

Total asset growth for 2024 is $1.6 trillion, despite total net outflows of $175 billion.

Additionally, during July, ETF assets grew by $329 billion (3.6%), with $119 billion attributed to net inflows, marking their second strongest month in history.

In 2024, ETFs assets have increased by $1.4 trillion (16.8%), with total net flows of $526 billion, representing an organic growth rate of 6.5%, concludes the report.

Harbor Capital Advisors Launches the Harbor Active Small Cap ETF

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Vanguard and actively managed ETF

Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc. (“Harbor”), an asset manager that curates a suite of actively-managed ETFs, mutual funds, and collective investment trusts, has added the Harbor Active Small Cap ETF (Ticker: SMLL) to its growing lineup of ETF offerings.

“SMLL is an actively managed ETF that invests in a blend of growth and value small cap companies. It seeks to offer what we believe is a cost-effective, transparent, and tax-efficient way for advisors to access the small cap blend space with an active strategy positioned to capitalize on the asset class’s inherent inefficiencies and wide dispersion of returns,” the statement says.

Why SMLL?

“Small caps are top of mind for Harbor as we believe they have the potential to offer attractive returns over the coming cycle,” said Kristof Gleich, President & CIO at Harbor Capital Advisors. “Glenn sits squarely in the bullseye of what we’re trying to achieve at Harbor. He is a proven, committed, skilled active manager who has decided to break away and create his own boutique, honing decades of experience and knowledge he has accumulated at a larger firm. An active approach and commitment to finding companies he believes have a sustainable competitive advantage can serve as a compelling allocation for advisors who seek to capture some of the potential returns available to small cap investors.”

Harbor’s Active Small Cap ETF (SMLL) invests only in businesses with sustainable competitive advantages run by competent management teams that are good stewards of capital with a track record of success. Candidates for inclusion in SMLL must also trade at a discount to their intrinsic value.

Harbor’s Active Small Cap ETF gives access to a tenured investment manager and process with total expense ratio of 80 basis points.

BlackTORO GWM Adds Yael Malik in Miami

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Yael Malik has joined BlackTORO GWM in Miami for the role of Chief Commercial Officer.

Malik’s background in investment banking, corporate finance and asset management is critical to BlackTORO, said Gabriel Ruiz, president and CIO of the firm.

With more than 30 years of experience in the financial market, She held leadership positions in major financial institutions such as BACS Banco de Crédito y Securitización S.A., where she served as Investment Banking Senior Vice President, and Consultores Asset Management S.A. where she served as Managing Director.

In these companies, she had prominent roles in the different investment teams in which he participated and led the structuring and execution of complex financial transactions of equity and debt, says the statement accessed by Funds Society.

Her experience also includes participation in international primary market transactions, where she led more than 20 international debt issuances valued at more than $5 billion, the firm’s information adds.

“We are very excited to have Yael join our management team at BlackTORO. Her experience in investment banking and asset management and her ability to develop business relationships will be instrumental in delivering comprehensive service excellence to our clients and driving the growth of our firm in Latin America and the United States,” said Ruiz.

Malik holds a Bachelor’s degree in Administration from the Universidad de Buenos Aires and a Master’s degree in Finance from Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. She also holds CFA Level II certification and has earned Next Board certification in Women Corporate Directors at UCEMA.

“I am honored to join such a talented and experienced team, and I am excited to contribute my knowledge and experience to the company’s continued growth in its core business areas,” concludes Malik.

Pictet AM Hires Juan Ramón Caridad García as Head of Strategic Clients for Iberia and Latam

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Photo courtesyJuan Ramón Caridad García, Head of Strategic Clients para Iberia y Latam de Pictet AM.

Pictet Asset Management, the institutional asset management and fund management division of the Swiss Pictet Group, has made two key appointments for the Iberian and Latin American markets, under the supervision of Gonzalo Rengifo Abbad, who has been its General Manager in Iberia and Latam since 2002.

As announced, Juan Ramón Caridad García is joining the Pictet AM team as Head of Strategic Clients for Iberia and Latam, reporting to Gonzalo Rengifo from the Madrid office. Additionally, Lorenzo Coletti Perucca has been promoted to Head of Iberia, taking on the responsibility for the Iberian market, while Tiago Forte Vaz becomes Head of Latam, responsible for the Latin American market. Coletti joined Pictet AM in 2001 as Sales Director for the Italian market and has been in Spain since 2005, while Forte Vaz joined in 2013 to develop business in Portugal and Brazil.

Meanwhile, Patricia de Arriaga Rodríguez, who began her career in 1984 and joined Pictet AM in 2006, will remain with the company as Deputy General Manager in Spain until the end of 2024, and later as Senior Advisor for key clients until her retirement in 2025.

Following Caridad’s appointment, Gonzalo Rengifo Abbad, General Manager in Iberia and Latam, stated: “This is a new transversal role aimed at facilitating a differential service in the various markets of Iberia and Latam and enhancing global synergies. Juan Ramón fits perfectly into the team, as he shares our values of responsibility, entrepreneurial spirit, and long-term thinking.”

Caridad has 25 years of experience. Until last May, he was Managing Director and Head for Iberia & Latam at GAM Investments. Caridad holds a degree in Economics and Business from the Autonomous University of Madrid and a postgraduate degree in Business Analysis and Valuation from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He is the Academic Director of the Master’s in Finance and Alternative Investment at Bolsas y Mercados Españoles and Co-Director of the I3 program at Instituto de Empresa. Additionally, he is a trustee of the FIDE Foundation.

Rengifo also highlighted that “Patricia will continue to contribute to the business with her extensive experience, deep knowledge of Pictet AM’s investment strategies and capabilities, and close relationship with clients. She has helped multiply the business in the Spanish market to €8.91 billion as of March 2024, making it one of the top ten international asset managers in our country. Among her wide range of achievements, she has been instrumental in successfully advancing thematic investments as well as financial education through various initiatives over the years.”

According to the firm’s head for Iberia and Latam, “these appointments underscore Pictet AM’s commitment to experienced professionals to drive growth and establish itself as a leading partner for institutional investors in the Iberian and Latin American markets.”

Federal Reserve Board Announces Final Individual Capital Requirements

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The Fed Board announced in a statement the final individual capital requirements for all large banks.

The margins, which will take effect on October 1, are the result of the stress test conducted earlier this year, the Fed explained.

The capital requirements for large banks are based on the results of the Board’s stress test, which provides a risk-sensitive and forward-looking assessment of capital needs.

The Tier 1 capital requirements of each bank’s common equity, which is composed of several elements:

  • The minimum capital requirement, which is the same for each bank and is 4.5 percent;
  • The stress capital buffer requirement, which is based in part on the stress test results and is at least 2.5 percent; and
  • If applicable, a capital surcharge for the largest and most complex banks, which is updated in the first quarter of each year to account for the overall systemic risk of each of these banks.

If a bank’s capital dips below its total requirement announced today, the bank is subject to automatic restrictions on both capital distributions and discretionary bonus payments.

Also, the Board announced that it had modified the stress capital buffer requirement for Goldman Sachs, after the firm’s request for reconsideration. Based on an analysis of additional information presented by the firm in its request, the Board determined it would be appropriate to adjust the treatment of particular historical expenses incurred by the bank in the stress testing models’ input data, due to the non-recurring nature of those expenses. As a result, the bank’s stress capital buffer requirement has been adjusted to 6.2 percent from a preliminary 6.4 percent.

The Board is focused on continuously improving the stress testing framework. To that end, the Board will analyze whether to revise regulatory reporting forms to better capture these types of data and to explore possible refinements to certain model components, the memo concludes.

Latina Women Contribute $1.3 Trillion to U.S. GDP

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Latina women in the U.S. contributed $1.3 trillion to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, representing a growth of over 50% in a decade, according to the U.S. Latina GDP Report.

The research, funded by Bank of America, is the first of its kind and highlights the “significant and growing economic contribution of the country’s Latina female population.”

Led by academics Matthew Fienup, Ph.D., from California Lutheran University, and David Hayes-Bautista, Ph.D., from the Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, the report found that the GDP of Latina women in the U.S. grew at a rate 2.7 times higher than that of non-Latinas between 2010 and 2021.

Currently, the GDP of Latina women is larger than the entire economy of the state of Florida, the report adds.

“This exciting body of work captures the positive growth and contributions that multigenerational American Latinas have been making to the U.S. economy and confirms that Latinas are a driving force. We see a similar momentum reflected in our overall business, as well as many of the same key drivers found in our own research,” said Jennifer Auerbach-Rodríguez, Head of Strategic Growth Markets and Client Development at Merrill Wealth Management.

Following the compilation of the U.S. Latina GDP and in metropolitan areas, this new report brings much-needed attention to the contributions of Latina women in the U.S. and reveals that Latinas outperform their gender and ethnic peers in key economic measures, including record levels of Latina labor force participation, educational attainment, and income growth, Fienup commented.

Santander PBI Continues its Expansion in Dubai with the Relocation of Iñigo Urbano

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Iñigo Urbano, Santander Private Banking International

Iñigo Urbano has relocated from Miami to Santander Private Banking International’s office in Dubai.

“After more than a decade with our team in Miami, we are delighted to welcome Iñigo Urbano Zumalacarregui to our new Branch in DIFC where he will join the team as Executive Advisor,” the firm announced Wednesday on LinkedIn.

The portfolio manager, who worked for 13 years in Santander’s discretionary management division in Miami (2011-2024), is moving to Dubai for the new office led by Masroor Batin.

Throughout his 20-year career, Urbano has worked at Credit Suisse (1999-2002), Fortis (BNP Paribas) between 2003 and 2009 as a senior portfolio manager. He later worked at Seguros RGA for two years before joining Santander, according to his LinkedIn profile.

In December 2023, Santander Private Banking announced, through an internal memorandum, the opening of an office in Dubai led by Masroor Batin, the former Head of Middle East and Africa at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, in line with its interest in expanding its business in the United Arab Emirates.

In this context, the entity continues to strengthen its Dubai team. Among those who joined before Urbano’s relocation are Jacques-Antoine Lecointre, Kamram Butt, Mustafa Asif Mahmood, and Fady E. Eid.

Generative AI in the Insurance Market Could Generate Over $50 Billions

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The international consultancy Bain & Company has published a study on the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the insurance industry, highlighting that this technology could increase company revenues by up to 20% and reduce costs by up to 15%, creating an opportunity for over $50 billion in annual economic benefits.

According to the report, the early use of generative AI in insurance will enable a transformation in distribution, covering four areas. First, its implementation will help agents produce content faster, reduce low-value interactions, and provide guidance to improve customer relationships.

Additionally, having an always-active virtual assistant will expand agent availability and assist customers with product comparisons and digital purchases.

This also opens up the possibility of large-scale hyper-personalization, where conversations, content, and offers will better respond to individual customer needs. Finally, combining structured and unstructured data will provide new insights and assist in risk identification. According to the consultancy, the application of generative AI will boost productivity, adjust workforce size, increase sales through more effective agents, and reduce commissions.

For individual insurers, the technology could increase revenues by 15% to 20% and reduce costs by 5% to 15%. However, Bain concluded that any change must be applied responsibly, recommending that insurers implementing this digital tool should focus on experimentation, learning, and change management.