CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Glyn Lowe. Jon Aisbitt to Step Down as Man Group Chairman in 2016
Man Group announces that Jon Aisbitt intends to step down as Chairman and as a director of Man Group plc in May 2016 at the Company’s Annual General Meeting (AGM). A committee of the Board, led by the Senior Independent Director, Phillip Colebatch, will identify his successor.
Jon Aisbitt was appointed to the Board as a non-executive director in August 2003 and was appointed Chairman in September 2007.
Jon Aisbitt, Chairman of Man Group, said: “It has been a privilege to lead the Board over the past eight years, and I am very proud of the progress the firm has made in diversifying and repositioning for further growth. I would like to thank my fellow Board members and the executive team at Man Group for their support and commitment. I will leave Man Group in the hands of an experienced, dedicated management team, and with a first-class Board, with whom I will continue to work over the next year to help ensure a smooth succession process.”
Emmanuel Roman, CEO of Man Group, said: “On behalf of our shareholders and everyone at Man Group, I would like to thank Jon for his exceptional service and dedication to the firm over the past 12 years. Jon’s leadership of the Board through significant change for Man Group has been invaluable. He has been a great support, guide and challenge to me personally as we have worked very hard to reposition the business. Jon’s decision to step down at next year’s AGM is part of a well-considered succession plan and allows the Board the time and flexibility to find the right candidate to succeed him.”
Man Group also announces that John Cryan will succeed Phillip Colebatch as Chairman of the Remuneration Committee following today’s AGM. John Cryan was appointed to the Board as a non-executive director and as a member of the Remuneration Committee and Nomination Committee in January 2015. Phillip Colebatch will continue to serve as a non-executive director and as Senior Independent Director.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Blu News. European Equities: After the Bond Fall
The recent sharp fall in bond prices, which saw yields on German bunds climb to a six-month high of 0.72% on 13 May 2015, caused a long-anticipated consolidation in European equities. It also helped the euro to strengthen, stopping the US dollar rally in its tracks, in spite of continued nervousness over Greece.
Along with these moves, the oil price rallied and many stocks that outperformed during the first part of the year went into reverse. This triggered warnings that the equity rally may be over. I disagree: I think this has been a necessary breather, before we see a continuation of better economic and profits news over the next few months.
The return of pricing power
There are signs that inflation is picking up. European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, flagged up at the ECB Governing Council meeting on 15 April that inflation rates are expected to “increase later in 2015 and to pick up further during 2016 and 2017”. This is good news for equities – suggesting a return of pricing power. It is also positive for economies, because a moderate level of inflation is probably the most palatable way to begin eroding the vast amount of government debt built up globally over the past 25 years or so.
Inflation is, however, not good news for those who, spurred by deflationary fears, bought any of the high number of bonds that have started to trade on negative yields. These so-called “crowded trades” (where a position, whether short or long, is held by a large number of investors) look fine until there is a stampede for the exit. So perhaps there has been an element of this in recent moves.
Economic indicators remain supportive
For the medium and long-term investor it is perhaps more important to look beyond short-term trading noise and consider whether the gradual improvement in economies will continue. Recent data shows that European economies are getting better, albeit slowly, and an expected interest rate hike in the US may be postponed due to the country’s weak start to this year, impacted by port strikes and bad weather. This should reassure investors that US monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative.
It is clear, however, that European markets have moved on. The MSCI Europe Index 12-month forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio is close to 16x earnings – higher than average, but not necessarily a cause for concern as long as P/Es in the US remain higher. Furthermore, European companies are at the start of a period of recovery for profits. Even if inflation reaches 2% in the coming years, if the “rule of 20” (a view that the stock market is correctly valued when the average P/E plus the rate of inflation equals 20) holds true, European markets can become more expensive in terms of P/E ratios.From a dividend perspective, yields on European equities also remain well ahead of those on German 10-year government bonds (3.1% average for the MSCI Europe Index, as at 30 April 2015, versus 0.6% for bunds, as at 15 May 2015).
European politics: certainty and uncertainty
On the political side, the election of a Conservative government in the UK maintains the status quo. There is a risk that the new government could be pulled towards the Right by those members with an anti-Europe, anti-welfare mandate, but my suspicion is that David Cameron and his allies know that UK elections are won and lost in the middle ground. There is a possibility that the “in/out” referendum on Europe, scheduled for 2017, could go the wrong way for markets (i.e. the UK decides to leave Europe), but my view remains that the UK is better off in a properly functional European Union. I also accept, as do most European leaders, that Europe needs to undertake further serious – and successful – reforms.
Greece, as always, remains a problem. The impasse between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, who refuses to accept the need for fundamental reforms, and the International Monetary Fund and ECB, who have refused to provide further financial support until reforms begin, looks set to continue. If Greece wants to stay in the euro, it must adopt reforms and prove that it is heading in the right direction, as far as budget stability is concerned. Sadly, the current Greek government has reversed the progress made by previous administrations, making the situation even worse for the long-suffering Greek people.
The European story continues
Putting it all together, recent signs of strength in European economies, coincident with weaker-than-expected growth in China and the US, have led to a logical shift in sentiment. Further good news should be still to come from European equities, including an increase in merger and acquisition activity, while the ECB continues to press ahead with its monetary stimulus programme. Furthermore, the current trend, whereby money is flowing from bonds into equities, should continue. This is hardly surprising given the different expectations for each asset class over the next 12 to 18 months.
In my view it is too early to be scared about a return to a slightly more normal economic environment. But we remain wary of the “crowded trade” effect, which is likely to fuel bouts of higher market volatility from time to time.
Tim Stevenson is manager of the Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund at Henderson GI.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Hendrik Dacquin. BNY Mellon Dynamic Total Return Fund Now Available to European Investors
BNY Mellon Investment Management announced the launch of a UCITS Dynamic Total Return Fund. The launch gives European investors access to the successful Dynamic Total Return strategy which was previously limited to US investors. The US vehicle has recently passed through the USD$1 billion mark off the back of very strong performance and has been the number one fund in the Morningstar Multialternative universe over five years.
The BNY Mellon Dynamic Total Return Fund is the latest addition to BNY Mellon’s multi-asset range and will replicate the strategy of its US counterpart with the aim of keeping pace with global equity markets while also managing volatility and cushioning any market falls.
The Dublin-domiciled UCITS fund is aimed at investors seeking to achieve managed growth with a lower drawdown. The portfolio primarily uses futures to gain exposure to global equity and bond markets. It also invests in more specialist asset classes such as currencies, commodities and inflation-protected securities. The Fund will be managed by the multi-asset team at Mellon Capital Management, one of BNY Mellon’s investment boutiques, and led by Vassilis Dagioglu. Dagioglu is also lead manager on the US vehicle.
Matt Oomen, Head of European Distribution at BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA, commented: “We are seeing significant and growing client demand for multi-asset investment solutions. The Dynamic Total Return Fund provides our clients with access to an equity-like target return product alongside our existing suite of absolute return and total return products. It fits perfectly into our range as we continue to build out our offering in this space. The European launch of the Dynamic Total Return Fund gives clients the opportunity to invest in a strategy with a 10 year track record and the chance to benefit from Mellon Capital’s 25 years’ experience in the multi-asset space.”
Vassilis Dagioglu, Lead Manager of the BNY Mellon Dynamic Total Return Fund, said: “The Fund is a diversified growth fund which seeks to profit from mis-pricings across assets and between markets. Using forward-looking valuation models which incorporate expectations for future cash flows, we apply our fundamental analysis in a systematic process on a big scale, on a frequent basis, and with a strong emphasis on downside risk control. Allocations are consequently spread across a range of equity, bond, currency and commodity market exposures and dynamically adjusted as forecasts evolve. As one of the top performing funds in the Morningstar Multialternative universe, we are pleased to be able to offer this product to European investors within a UCITS structure.”
The Fund is part of BNY Mellon’s Global Fund range and is available to investors in Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, Portugal, Denmark and the Netherlands.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Fitch: Below-Average Hurricane Season Predicted in 2015; Nearly 10 Years Since Last Florida Landfall
Fitch Ratings new special report, ‘Hurricane Season 2015: A Desk Reference for Insurance Investors’, provides analysis on potential effects of a major storm season on large insurance companies and the industry as a whole. The report also compares forecasts for the 2015 hurricane season from several market experts, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University (CSU) and Tropical Storm Research (TSR).
Expert forecasts are leaning toward a less severe North Atlantic hurricane season in 2015. If projections hold true, the State of Florida could reach 10 consecutive years without a Hurricane landfall. The last named storm to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.
The time span since the last hurricane landfall in Florida has nearly doubled the previous record of hurricane-free years for the state. As Florida’s population and the value of insured property has grown substantially since the last hurricane landfall, Florida’s State government, residents and property insurers companies must remain wary of the devastation that a severe storm would generate.
Early forecasts for the 2015 U.S. hurricane season predict that the North Atlantic Basin will likely produce below-average hurricane frequency relative to long-term results, as a number of environmental forces that serve to inhibit the development of tropical storm activity portend a third consecutive year with below long-term average activity.
Fitch estimates that given the current substantial level of industry capitalization, it would likely take a record individual storm loss or a series of significant losses equal to 15% or more of industry aggregate surplus for consideration of a property/casualty sector outlook movement to negative tied to catastrophe experience.
State-sponsored insurers continue to turn to the capital markets for alternative methods of transferring catastrophe risks. The continued low interest rate environment, along with the desire of state-sponsored insurers to utilize alternatives to the traditional insurance risk transfer market, has generated significant growth in 2015 as repeat sponsors and new entrants have issued $1.4 billion of notes in the first half of the year with named storms as a trigger peril. The growth in 2015 was led by the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA), which issued two tranches of notes totaling $700 million, making it the largest issuance in the market so far this year.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Tuscasasrurales. Taking Advantage of Volatility to Reinforce Eurozone Equities
The economic environment continues to soften in the US and investors are starting to have doubts on the momentum of the global recovery’s main driver. There is no doubt that the weakness in the US economy is due to more than simply technical factors like the cold spell at the beginning of 2015 and strikes in oil terminals but we still think it is only temporary.
The slump in oil prices at the end of 2014 triggered drastic cuts to investment in the energy sector while households mostly reacted to lower oil prices by boosting savings rather than spending. Brutal oil price shifts in the past have always had an effect over several quarters and not a few weeks. Consequently, after initially suffering from the negative impact of lower oil prices, we should now start to benefit from them. Our economic scenario is unchanged: the US recovery is proceeding and will drive Europe and Japan while Europe’s return to normal is taking place in better conditions.
We can no longer bank on multiple expansion on today’s equity markets so we prefer markets where earnings growth looks most likely to generate the most positive surprises.
Our convictions on equity markets:
In this respect, euro equity markets have been more turbulent in recent weeks, most probably due to fresh uncertainty in Greece but essentially because of the euro’s violent rebound. True, the Greek issue is by no means settled but we believe the talks have taken a more positive turn since Athens reshuffled the team that is negotiating with the Troika. The government’s falling popularity and recent opinions polls which suggest the Greeks are still just as attached to the Eurozone seem to have prompted a political inflection. This will, however, need to be confirmed in coming weeks. The referendum planned by the Tsipras administration over reforms agreed with the Troika could still be very risky. But it would appear that it might get popular support and thus end a period of intense political confusion.
Elsewhere, the euro’s rebound looks largely technical, a case of markets taking a breather after a brutal correction. We see no lasting bounce in the euro and remain bullish of the US dollar. Meanwhile, there are encouraging signs that Italy is emerging from a long crisis, probably due to reforms introduced over the last two years. And lastly, we have seen encouraging results from European companies to date, enough to justify expectations of strong earnings growth in 2015.
For all these reasons, we have been taking advantage of market falls to reinforce our overweight positionon Eurozone equities, moving from =/+ to +.
Our convictions on bonds markets:
We have also cut our rating on Eurozone debt on the grounds that all government bonds are expensive compared to other asset classes.
10-year German bonds offer almost no yield and there seems to be little scope for spreads on peripheral debt to narrow. Expected returns are therefore very low. At the same time, such low yields will make it increasingly difficult for Eurozone bonds to act as efficient protection should risk aversion increase. In bond portfolios, government bonds are still important but in our diversified portfolios we can afford to take profits.
Column by EdRAM. Benjamin Melman is Head of Asset Allocation and Sovereign Debt in Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France).
Disclaimer: This document is for information only.The data, comments and analysis in this document reflect the opinion of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France) and its affiliates with respect to the markets, their trends, regulation and tax issues, on the basis of its own expertise, economic analysis and information currently known to it. However, they shall not under any circumstances be construed as comprising any sort of undertaking or guarantee whatsoever on the part of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France). Any investment involves specific risks. Main investment risks: risk of capital loss, equity risk, credit risk and fixed income risk. Any investment involves specific risks. All potential investors must take prior measures and specialist advice in order to analyse the risks and establish his or her own opinion independent of Edmondde Rothschild Asset Management (France) in order to determine the relevance of such an investment to his or her own financial situation.
Photo: Raul Garcia Piñero. Nomura Launches Two JPX-Nikkei 400 ETFs
Nomura today announces the launch of the “Nomura JPX-Nikkei 400 Daily EUR-Hedged UCITS Exchange Traded Fund” and the “Nomura JPX-Nikkei 400 Daily USD-Hedged UCITS Exchange Traded Fund”. The ETFs are listed on the London Stock Exchange and are available to investors in key European markets.
The investment objective of the funds is to track the performance of the recently launched JPX-Nikkei 400 Total Return US dollar and Euro-hedged indices. Offered in EUR–hedged and USD-hedged formats, the ETFs will allow investors to gain exposure to Japanese equities, while reducing the impact on their portfolios of potential JPY depreciation against those currencies.
The JPX-Nikkei 400 Total Return Index spearheads a new generation of benchmarks, with the objective of increasing the appeal of Japanese equities by including companies with high and sustainable dividend yields; encouraging better corporate governance and capital efficiency. The selection criteria are based on return on equity, governance, size and liquidity. The index is calculated on a free-float adjusted market capitalisation weighted basis.
The ETFs are part of Nomura’s US$52.7 billion NEXT FUNDS range, which offer physical replication of benchmark indices in various asset classes.
These additions represent a further step in the international expansion of NEXT FUNDS into the UCITS ETF market, following the launch in January of the “Nomura Nikkei 225 Euro- Hedged UCITS ETF” and the “Nomura Nikkei 225 UCITS US Dollar-Hedged ETF”.
Mike Ward, Head of Equity Sales, EMEA, at Nomura, said: “These new ETFs provide best- in-class access to Japanese equities for our international clients, while allowing them to hedge currency risk. They are a direct response to the broad-based interest in Japanese equities among the international investor community.”
Photo: Paulo Brandao. Santander, Teachers' and PSP Investments Launch Cubico Sustainable Investments
Banco Santander, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Public Sector Pension Investment Board today announced the formal launch of Cubico Sustainable Investments, a London-headquartered firm established to manage and invest in renewable energy and water infrastructure assets globally.
Owned equally by Santander and two of Canada’s largest pension funds, Teachers and PSP Investments, the firm has significant capital to invest and is committed to a long-term growth strategy designed to make it one of the largest and best in class renewable energy and water investors in the world.
Following the transfer of 19 wind, solar and water infrastructure assets previously owned by Santander, Cubico has a balanced and diversified portfolio valued at more than US$2 billion. The assets in operation, construction or under development have a total capacity of more than 1,400 megawatts and are located across seven countries: Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
The firm is led by Santander’s former Asset & Capital Structuring (A&CS) team of 30 professionals who specialize in managing and investing in infrastructure investments globally. A&CS team leader Marcos Sebares becomes Chief Executive Officer of the company. Alongside capital and financial expertise, a local Cubico specialist will take an important role in the management of each of its assets, ensuring that resources, contacts, ideas and knowledge of best practice are brought to all its investments.
The company has a flexible investment mandate and through its strong origination capability will focus on identifying assets that will achieve significant scale and value over the lifetime of its ownership. Cubico has the mandate to hold assets for the long term.
Cubico will be headquartered in London, with regional offices in Milan, Sao Paulo and Mexico DF. The company will build on the A&CS strategy of developing a global platform of diversified infrastructure assets that generate stable cash flows and superior returns.
Marcos Sebares, Chief Executive Officer, Cubico Sustainable Investments, commented: “Today represents the beginning of an exciting new chapter for us. Renewable and water infrastructure developments require decisive long-term investment and commitment. We are uniquely positioned to provide this through our strong ownership structure, experienced team and global footprint. We have already built a strong pipeline of attractive assets to add to the platform and look forward to working with our partners over the coming years to consolidate Cubico’s position as one of the world’s leading renewable energy and water infrastructure investors.”
Andrew Claerhout, Senior Vice-President, Infrastructure at Teachers’, commented: “We are pleased to have worked with our partners to create Cubico. We look forward to supporting the strong management team and its efforts to build a platform for global growth in the renewable energy and water sector.”
Bruno Guilmette, Senior Vice-President, Infrastructure Investments at PSP Investments, commented: “We are pleased to have completed this landmark transaction alongside reputable partners such as Banco Santander and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. This new joint venture will allow us to continue to grow and develop our portfolio of private energy assets while contributing to environmentally sustainable energy production.”
Juan Andres Yanes, Senior Executive Vice President, Banco Santander S.A, commented: “This is the culmination of almost two years of focused work that started in 2013 with the identification of the sale opportunity and the best parties to join us in this innovative endeavour. We are pleased to start this new joint venture with Teachers’ and PSP Investments, two of the best known pension funds in infrastructure investment. We are confident that this venture represents a significant milestone for Santander to increase its footprint in the renewable and water infrastructure industry.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Donkey Hotey
. Día Mundial de la Tierra: hay que abastecer alimentos mundialmente a precio razonable
BNP Paribas Investment Partners is adding a new fundamental active world equity fund, Parvest Equity Best Selection World, to its flagship Parvest umbrella fund. The fund is managed by its highly experienced Global Equity team that joined in February and is led by Simon Roberts.
Parvest Equity Best Selection World is a high conviction stock picking fund managed using an unconstrained long-only strategy with an absolute return philosophy. The portfolio consists of the fund managers’ top stock picks and is highly concentrated, with a maximum of 40 names. It is not benchmark-constrained and has a high active share of close to 90%, and is expected to have a tracking error in the range of 4-8%1.
The investment team seeks to identify companies based in Europe, the USA, Japan and Emerging Markets, which have strong compounding growth potential that has been underestimated by the market, or where companies are undergoing significant restructuring by reducing their asset base and therefore leading to increased and sustainable profitability.
Parvest Equity Best Selection World combines a proprietary quantitative screening process that identifies a universe of stocks with attractive financial characteristics with fundamental analysis to identify and invest in stocks with an expected risk-adjusted absolute annualised Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of at least 20%. Position sizes will be consistent with the expected IRR at any time and this approach is also a major part of the sell discipline. The fund follows a long-term investment approach, resulting in low turnover. It is expected that much of the alpha will be sourced from stock selection across sectors and that there will be no intentional style bias through time, which should enable it to perform in different market conditions.
Guy Davies, Director of Equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, comments: “We are pleased to announce the launch of Parvest Equity Best Selection World, managed by our recently-appointed global equity team. The team members average more than 20 years’ industry experience and have worked together for many years. They have a strong and demonstrable investment record, and being able to offer our clients this capability is a further step in our strategy of developing a world class equity proposition.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: James. Aberdeen to Acquire Flag Capital Management to Boost Global Alternatives Capability
Aberdeen Asset Management announce today it has entered into an agreement to acquire FLAG Capital Management, LLC (FLAG), a manager of private equity and real asset solutions with offices in Stamford CT, Boston, MA, and Hong Kong.
This acquisition is in line with Aberdeen’s strategy to strengthen and grow its global alternatives platform and solutions provision via multi-manager coverage of hedge funds, property and private market allocations, infrastructure investments and pan-alternative capabilities. FLAG’s well-established private equity teams in the U.S. and Asia will help broaden Aberdeen’s private markets solutions activity within the alternatives arena.
As of December 31, 2014 , FLAG managed assets of approximately $6.3 billion of invested and committed capital on behalf of its broad client base. FLAG is a diversified private markets solutions business focused on venture capital, small- to mid-cap private equity, and real assets in the U.S. , as well as private equity in the Asia-Pacific region. The business will be fully integrated into Aberdeen’s current private markets capability. This will position Aberdeen as a leading global private equity investor with over 50 investment professionals and roughly $15 billion of assets under management.
Aberdeen’s alternatives platform, overseen by Andrew McCaffery, Global Head of Alternatives, will have total assets under management of $21.3 billion following completion of the transaction.
The transaction provides key benefits to Aberdeen:
The addition of FLAG’s U.S.- and Asia-focused investment capability, combined with Aberdeen’s strength in Europe, will offer clients a compelling global private markets solutions proposition;
FLAG’s long-established presence across the institutional and high-net-worth client segments in the U.S. increases Aberdeen’s exposure to the region and enhances the footprint among family offices, endowments and public and corporate pension plans;
Aberdeen believe FLAG’s expertise in successfully launching private equity and real asset-linked products will permit Aberdeen to accelerate organic growth in this business segment;
FLAG’s funds bring highly stable revenues that are at low risk of outflows; once launched, each fund’s revenue stream is defined, based on committed capital and a fixed fee schedule over the multiple-year life of the fund, which typically is set at 12 years;
The integration of FLAG’s investment platform boosts Aberdeen’s pan-alternatives capability, allowing Aberdeen to provide to its client base a full range of private markets solutions.
Commenting on the transaction, Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen, said: “Institutional investors are increasingly looking towards alternative asset classes, including private market allocations, to diversify their portfolios and enhance returns. This transaction is in line with Aberdeen’s strategy of undertaking clear value-added acquisitions that will assist with accelerating business growth in this area. FLAG meets this objective in two ways. Initially, it strengthens further our private market capability by bringing additional Asian expertise and new U.S. resource. This will also benefit our overall pan-alternatives platform. Secondly, FLAG deepens and expands our U.S. client base, which is a key growth market for Aberdeen.”
Commenting on the transaction, Peter Lawrence, Chief Executive of FLAG, said: “We at FLAG are thrilled to be joining Aberdeen, not only because of its reputation and position as one of the leading global asset management firms, but also because of the clear cultural fit of our two organizations. We believe the combination serves the interests of all of our constituents, particularly our limited partners and the talented team of professionals that have built FLAG into the high-achieving, high integrity firm that attracted Aberdeen in the first place. Simply put, we can think of no better or more appropriate future for all involved. As integral members of Aberdeen’s private markets solutions team, we’re excited to deliver a truly global array of private capital solutions for our investors.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Paul Downey. Amundi Launches Floating Rate Notes ETF
Amundi has launched the first ETF in Europe exposed to USD denominated floating rate notes. This fund aims to protect portfolios from interest rate moves.
The firm says that the ETF has a low degree of price sensitivity to interest rates and a yield moving in line with interest rates.
The fund has been listed on Euronext Paris and has already been recongnised by the Financial Conduct Authority. It will be soon cross-listed on the main European markets, including the London Stock Exchange.
Valerie Baudson, global head of ETF, Indexing and Smart Beta at Amundi, said: “Our innovative Floating Rate Notes range is of particular interest in today’s market for investors seeking a source of yield in a low rate environment and a hedge in the event of a rise in EUR and US short term rates. Our building blocks are innovation, cost-efficiency and quality of replication.”
