Russian equities are among the cheapest in the world amid political and economic controversy. Yet investors might be surprised to discover that the rapidly developing retail industry offers undervalued opportunities with attractive return potential, said AB experts.
Russian equities are trading at an average P/E ratio of 6.5x versus the emerging-market average of 12.5x. There are good reasons for the discount: Russia’s economy is under severe pressure because of a weaker oil price and international sanctions as a result of its role in the conflict in Ukraine. The ruble has plunged versus the US dollar, inflation has shot up and Russia’s GDP is shrinking. Ordinary Russians are feeling the pinch in the form of declining real incomes.
“So, even the most contrarian investor needs to tread very cautiously before venturing into Russian stocks. That said, we believe selected large Russian food retailers represent a compelling structural opportunity for investors given the long-term modernization and consolidation of the country’s food retail industry”, points out Henry S. D’Auria, Chief Investment Officer, Emerging Markets Value Equities at AB, and Justin Moreau, research associate in the team.
Room to Grow?
In size terms, the industry is potentially massive; Russia’s population is as large as Germany and France combined. However, modern supermarkets remain relatively few and far between and the industry is still highly fragmented. The biggest retail chains have been expanding rapidly. Together, they’ve rolled out more than 2,000 new stores in each of the last five years. But they still have lots of room to grow and to win greater market share.
This growth potential doesn’t seem to be priced into the big Russian food retailers’ valuations, which look cheap compared with many of their emerging-market peers, opine both AB experts.
This is particularly surprising since they’re highly profitable. In other countries, intense competitive pressures have resulted in price wars, driving down industry-wide profitability. In Russia, these pressures are kept in check because the country’s vast geography and harsh climate represent significant logistical barriers to entry. Western food retailers have largely decided to stay away. The challenging business environment, economic sanctions and their unfamiliarity with the local market have persuaded them not to target Russia.
Riding out a Spending Squeeze
“Clearly, declining wages and soaring prices could curb Russian spending on food. Retailers are also pressured by government food import restrictions. Imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish and dairy products are banned from countries that imposed sanctions in protest at Russia’s role in Ukraine. The resulting shortages are making some items still more expensive. In this challenging environment, we think the big players are much better positioned to thrive than smaller chains and stand-alone stores” said D’Auria and Moreau.
The biggest modern chains are relatively young companies, having emerged in the 1990s and become publicly listed in the last 10 years. But they’ve fast gained the size and reach that we regard as key ingredients for success in today’s food retailing market.
Russia’s economic woes have driven down both labor and real estate costs—the big players’ two largest operating expenses. This should make it cheaper for them to open more stores in future—providing yet another boost to their consolidation prospects.
“Russia isn’t an obvious investment target in these difficult times. But because many investors are steering clear of the region, it’s an opportune moment to take a strategic look at the market. In our view, the retail sector is a good place for investors to shop for bargains that should benefit from structural change during current economic and political uncertainties, as well as—in the long run—when the conflict is ultimately resolved”.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Guillermo Viciano
. The Summer Months Seem Prone to Market Setbacks
The old investment adage, ‘Sell in May and go away, come back again on St Leger’s Day’ seems more pertinent than usual this year. The summer months seem prone to market setbacks in thin trading conditions. This time around not only are there some clear event risks on the horizon, but also market liquidity is likely to be even worse than usual, explained John Stopford, co-Head of Multi-asset at Investec.
The key risks are probably the threat of Greek default and of higher interest rates in the US. “To some extent, these possible events must already be partly in the price, because they are known. It is unlikely, however, that they are fully priced in as their likelihood remains uncertain and their market impact is unclear”, said Stopford.
In the case of Greece, investors appear to still put a high probability on a default being avoided. This assumes that fear of the consequences of default will force an 11th hour compromise between the institutions and Greece. The rhetoric of late, unfortunately, suggests that the risk of an accident is rising. Even if a deal is struck it may only to buy a little time for further negotiations, and would need to be passed by unpredictable parliaments and possibly electorates.
Greece is too small to have major direct economic ramifications for the global economy, and now that the ECB is buying government bonds, there is more support for peripheral markets. “At some level, however, Greek default and possible Euro exit would mark a failure of European monetary union. This should leave investors feeling less comfortable about holding other Southern European debt, at least without a higher yield premium”, point out Investec expert.
A near-term tightening of US monetary policy is seen, more so than Greek default, as quite likely. Despite this, the bond market continues to price the balance of risks towards a more dovish outcome. Investors are conditioned by post crisis experience, perhaps, to expect the FOMC to err on the side of caution. Labour market data, however, suggest that spare capacity is being used up quickly and the Fed board is in danger of falling behind the curve. Historically, said Investec the bond market has been slow to price in possible interest rate increases until they are imminent, and then the market has tended to over react.
“So the potential for a negative market reaction this summer to either event seems reasonably high, with a likely spill over into broader market volatility. The fear is that any sell-off will be exaggerated by poor liquidity, especially in bond markets. Trading volumes have been negatively impacted by market regulation which has reduced the ability and willingness of investment banks to make markets. Liquidity is likely be further diminished over the next few months, by the absence of many risk takers from their desks over the summer holiday season”, argued Stopford.
As a consequence, it seems prudent to take some risk off the table, or to buy protection. Any weakness, however, will probably be a buying opportunity as risks become more fully priced in. This is especially true for equity markets, where volatility tends to cause corrections rather than marking the end of bull markets.
Photo: Steven S.. Family Firms, an Opportunity for Minority Investors?
Family-owned firms are not just key drivers of economic growth, but also key employers. But do they generate returns comparable to benchmarks, and what type of specific risks do they pose for external shareholders?
To find out whether family firms generate returns comparable to non-family-owned peers, the Credit Suisse Research Institute analyzed financial data from the CS Global Family 900 universe, a proprietary basket composed of 920 family-owned businesses located across the globe.
From an investment point of view, sector-adjusted share price returns show that since 2006 family-owned companies have delivered superior performance: The CS Global Family 900 universe has generated a 47 percent outperformance compared to the benchmark MSCI ACWI index. This equates to an annual excess return of 4.5 percent over the nine-year period to the end of April 2015, according to the Research Institute’s study “The Family Business Model.”
Considering profitability in terms of return on equity (RoE), superior RoEs were seen in family-owned companies both in Asia and EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), while US- and European-based family firms posted lower returns on equity (RoE) than benchmark. “Lower RoEs in more developed markets are indicative of more conservative strategies as well as broader priorities for family ownership beyond simply financial returns,” explained Richard Kersley, Head of Global Equity Research Product for Credit Suisse’s Investment Banking division.
But looking beyond a simple RoE analysis, data showed that the family firms in the CS Family 900 universe, excluding banks and regulated utilities, generated annual cash flow return on investment (CFROI) averaging 130 basis points higher than companies in MSCI ACWI. Over the longer term, family firms have generated twice the economic profit (earnings in excess of the opportunity cost of using assets or capital) than the benchmark.
US- and European-based family firms use less leverage than their non-family-owned peers and showed faster deleveraging following the recent financial crisis compared to benchmarks. Asian family companies, however, operate with higher leverage than the benchmark. Globally, family-owned businesses delivered smoother and more stable business cycles than the benchmark. “Sales growth is less volatile through the cycle with lower peaks and less pronounced troughs,” said Julia Dawson, an equity analyst at the bank’s Investment Banking division.
Annual sales growth has also been higher in family-owned firms – 10 percent compared to 7.3 percent for MSCI ACWI companies since 1995 – and less volatile during both the Internet bubble and the financial crisis. “A longer term corporate strategy is fundamental to the structural nature of this higher and less volatile (sales) growth,” Dawson said. “The importance of product or service quality, the development of long-term client relationships and brand loyalty, along with the focus on core products and innovation in these products rather than diversifying are all elements explaining this outperformance,” she underlined.
A founder’s premium was established when analyzing the CS Global Family 900 universe. Over the past nine years, first generation companies have delivered a share price compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9 percent. Share price returns are indeed the highest in the first generation, when investing alongside the founder, and then decline as family ownership passes down successive generations and the companies mature. “It pays to invest alongside the company founder, in the early years of a company’s existence that is likely to correspond to a period of high growth,” Dawson concluded.
Maria Eugenia Cordova. Maria Eugenia Cordova Appointed US Offshore Sales Manager for Miami at Henderson
Maria Eugenia Cordova has been appointed as the new Sales Manager with Henderson Global Investors for the US offshore market. She will be based in Miami, Florida, with immediate effect.
Henderson Global Investors’ has a strong commitment to these markets, with US $6 billion assets under management in the Iberian & Latin American region combined.
Maria Eugenia will report to Ignacio de la Maza, Head of Sales Iberia & Latin America, and she will be responsible for thewholesaleside of US Offshore markets.
Maria makes a welcome new addition to the team, and brings the headcount to a total of six sales people looking after Iberia & Latin America region. There are plans to further grow the sales team in Miami over the next 12 months.
Bilingual in both Spanish and English, Maria has a ten year career in asset management. Most recently she worked at Aberdeen Asset Management. Previously she was employed by Franklin Templeton, Pioneer and Chase Investment Services. She graduated from University of Florida with a BA in Economics and Finance.
Commenting on the appointment, Ignacio de la Maza, said, “Maria has an excellent blend of skills both in the asset management sector and the US Offshore market. She has spent a number of years fostering relationships with clients, and she understands their investment priorities. She adds great value to the growing presence that Henderson has in the US Offshore market.”
Photo: Pedro Ribeiro. Nikko Asset Management Expands UCITS Range
EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) investors’ strong appetite for gaining exposure to specialist investment strategies is driving Nikko Asset Management to expand its range of UCITS funds.
“UCITS funds are an excellent way for clients in EMEA and other regions to access global investments in an easily accessible and efficient manner,” said Takuya Koyama, executive vice president and global head of sales at Nikko Asset Management. “The launch of more UCITS funds is central to our strategic effort to significantly expand our business in EMEA.”
Nikko Asset Management is launching two new UCITS funds this month that invest in global equities and multi-asset. These institutional quality strategies will allow sophisticated global investors access to a broad range of exposures across developed and emerging markets.
“As we position ourselves as Asia’s premier global asset manager, we are eager to leverage our expanded investment capabilities and expertise,” said Yu-Ming Wang, global head of investment at Nikko Asset Management. “We have a first-rate team of investment professionals, and now we are making their skills available to an even broader range of global clients.”
Over the past two years, Nikko Asset Management has been expanding its existing investment capabilities. The most recent addition was the highly experienced UK-based global active equity team led by William Low in August 2014. The global multi-asset team headed by Al Clark joined the company in March 2014 and the Asia ex-Japan equity team headed by Peter Sartori joined in October 2013.
The Tokyo-based asset manager has plans to launch more UCITS funds in the coming months in order to meet global investors’ evolving demand for exposure to more markets and strategies.
Photo: A Guy Taking Pictures. Aberdeen Launches Multi-Asset Fund
Aberdeen Asset Management has launched the Aberdeen Global – Multi-Asset Income Fund to be managed by its Edinburgh-based Multi-Asset Income Team. Share classes of the Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS fund are registered for public distribution to investors in Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland and Singapore (restricted to Qualified Investors).
The Fund is designed to address the increased demand for multi-asset investment products and the challenges that investors are facing when they seek income in the current low rate environment. It combines a broad range of high quality income-generating assets with the aim of producing a high, but sustainable, annual yield while maintaining the real value of capital over the medium term.
The eight-strong Multi-Asset Income team will manage the fund. The team will also draw on knowledge and research from the broader 60-strong Investments Solutions division.
The Fund’s strategic asset allocation is determined by the yield expectations of a range of assets and reviewed on a regular basis. Throughout this process, the focus is on creating a diversified portfolio of high quality income-generating assets.
Mike Turner, Head of Multi-Asset at Aberdeen Asset Management, comments: “In the post-financial crisis world, income is harder to come by. Using our team’s extensive experience in multi-asset investment, we aim to provide a product which can deliver a sustainable annual yield while maintaining the real value of investors’ capital over the medium term.”
Aberdeen’s Investment Solutions division currently manages over €129 billion in multi-asset portfolios on behalf of clients around the world.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Daniel Lobo. Greek Mattress Stash Up to 30% of GDP
The stock of banknotes put into circulation by the Bank of Greece rose by a further €5.3 billion in June to a record €50.5 billion – see chart. The central bank’s liability to the rest of the Eurosystem related to the supply of notes is now €22.8 billion, on top of a €107.7 billion TARGET2 deficit.
The stock of notes is equivalent to 30% of forecast GDP in 2015 and 37% of bank deposits of Eurozone residents in Greek banks at end-May. For comparison, the Eurozone-wide stock equals 10% of GDP and 9% of bank deposits.
The ECB has accommodated a huge shift in Greek liquidity preference caused by the confidence-wrecking manoeuvres of the former finance minister and associated “Grexit” fears. His claim of deliberate “liquidity asphyxiation” is surreal.
Kevin Choy, Portfolio Manager. Pioneer Investments Strengthens Alternative Fixed Income Team
Pioneer Investments announced the enhancement of its Alternative Fixed Income team with the appointment of Kevin Choy as Portfolio Manager. Based in Boston, Kevin will report directly to Thomas Swaney, Head of Alternative Fixed Income, U.S.
In his role, Kevin will work alongside Thomas to support the management of Pioneer Investments’ liquid alternative strategies, including the Long/Short Bond strategy and Long/Short Opportunistic Credit strategy.
Ken Taubes, Head of Investment Management U.S., commented: ‘’In an environment of lower expected returns from bonds, combined with a potential rise in volatility, we need to consider a different way of investing that targets new sources of returns, downside risk mitigation, and volatility management. Liquid alternative strategies aim to provide diversification, improve risk-adjusted returns, and act as shock absorbers during times of market stress,’’ he continued. “They’re potentially also a way to reduce correlations versus traditional asset classes.’’
Taubes added: ‘’We are pleased to welcome Kevin to the team and his appointment represents a further commitment to our capabilities in the growing alternative fixed income area.’’
Kevin joins Pioneer Investments from Hartford Investment Management, where he was a Senior Analyst covering a variety of sectors, including telecom, media and technology. Before joining Hartford he was a Senior Analyst at OFI Global Asset Management, where he generated long and short investment ideas for both retail and institutional investment mandates. Kevin also held positions at NEC Corp. in Tokyo, Japan and the U.S. Kevin has a B.S. in Business Administration with a concentration in Accounting from San Jose State University. Kevin also has an M.B.A. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is a CFA charterholder.
As a more unique insight to their Liquid Alts efforts, Thomas Swaney will be a key presenter speaking on Long / Short Opportunistic Credit when he visits Miami for a due diligence event Pioneer is hosting in early October. For more detail on this upcoming event, please post the contact: US.Offshore@pioneerinvestments.com.
Photo: -Gio -Iab. Moody's: Chile's Resilient Economy Will Weather Slowdown in Investment and Consumption
Despite the Chile’s strong credit profile, slowing growth will strain profitability and demand for companies that rely on consumption, while weak commodities prices and rising production costs will weigh on Chile’s mining sector, says Moody’s Investors Service.
“A series of fiscal reforms in 2014 strengthened Chile’s fiscal policy and commitment to debt reduction, but in the process also led to a temporary reduction in investment and consumer spending,” says Moody’s Vice President and Senior Credit Officer, Barbara Mattos.
“Weaker investment has had a particularly negative effect on Chile’s economic growth. Commodities producers, especially copper, which represents over half of Chile’s exports and about 12% of its GDP, have delayed some investments in a time of narrow profits,” says Mattos in the report “Corporate Credit Quality in Chile: Investment, Consumption Will Slow Briefly in Otherwise Resilient Economy.”
The weakness of Chile’s peso against the US dollar further strains companies that derive most of their revenue from domestic consumption and have significant dollar-denominated debt on their balance sheets coming due in 2015.
However, the weak peso benefits producers of chemicals, metals, and paper and forest products, which are export-dependent.
Moody’s also notes that sectors that already have global exposure or can expand globally will be better able to weather this period of slower economic growth and lower consumer spending.
Five of the 11 rated Chilean companies had negative outlooks at the end of June 2015, which reflect company-specific conditions, such as tight liquidity, debt-financed expansions or weaker demand for commodities, rather than Chile’s macroeconomic environment.
“Chile’s economy is recovering from a growth rate of 1.9% in 2014, its weakest growth rate in five years,” says Mattos. “As the economy continues to recover in 2015 and 2016, companies will continue to benefit from Chile’s solid financial system.”
Photo: Santi Villamarin. Where Are the Most Interesting Opportunities in Equity Markets?
There are several reasons why we think upward momentum on equity markets will continue. US growth is set to continue, Europe is recovering, both the ECB and BoJ are deploying ultra accommodating policy, large groups are once again looking to do deals and European company margins are expected to continue improving.
But index gains are likely to be slower than at the beginning of 2015 and the road ahead will be rocky due to persistent volatility over events like the Greek talks, Fed policy and the crisis between Russia and Ukraine. We are maintaining our preference for developed country equities, especially in Europe and Japan, as earnings upgrades are set to continue and likely to underpin equity market advances.
Absolute European valuations may look testing but they are not excessive in cyclically adjusted terms. And compared to bond markets, equities still look attractive. We prefer the Eurozone, cyclical and banks. Japanese equity valuations are not yet in expensive territory and recent regulatory developments and the resulting boost to ROE should provide additional support for equity prices.
In the US, however, valuations and historically high profit margins suggest we should be more cautious. We prefer financials and cyclicals. Financials are trading at attractive valuations and should gain from any Fed action while cyclicals, especially in the consumer sector, stand to benefit from lower unemployment and future wage increases.
Finally, we remain selective in emerging markets which remain just as disparate as far as fundamentals and valuations are concerned.
Philippe Uzan is CIO at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France)
