Photo: Mark Moz
. Citi Sales Alternative Investor Services Business for $425 million
Citigroup announced that it has reached a definitive agreement to sell itsAlternative Investor Services business, which comprises Hedge Fund Services and Private Equity Fund Services, to SS&C Technologies Holdings for $425 million.
The entire operations of this business, including approximately 1,500 employees, will be transferred to SS&C upon closing.
This transaction is a positive outcome for Alternative Investor Services, including its employees and clients. As a result of this deal, Alternative Investor Services will become part of a known leader in financial services with a demonstrated track record of delivering high-quality products and services to its clients.
The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2016, and is subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.
Photo: Elliott Brown . Mediobanca to Acquire a Majority Stake in London-Based Credit Manager Cairn Capital
Mediobanca and Cairn Capital Group Ltd have agreed terms for a strategic partnership in which Mediobanca will acquire a majority interest in the London-based, credit asset management and advisory firm.
Cairn Capital was established in 2004 and provides a full range of credit asset management and advisory services, with a particular focus on European credit. As at 30 June 2015, Cairn Capital had $5.6bn of discretionary and legacy assets under management, with a further $9.1bn of assets under long term advice.
Under the terms of the transaction, Mediobanca will acquire 51 per cent. of the share capital of Cairn Capital on completion. The majority will be purchased from Cairn Capital’s institutional shareholders and following which The Royal Bank of Scotland will have no remaining interest. Mediobanca will have the ability to increase its interest in Cairn Capital after three years with an option to acquire some or all of the remaining 49 per cent., the majority of which is held by the management and staff of Cairn Capital.
As part of its overall strategy, Mediobanca is strongly committed to the development of an international Alternative Asset Management business, achieved through strategic partnerships with selected asset managers, having strong track records, high quality management teams, and scalable platforms. Cairn Capital will fulfill a central role within the MAAM credit platform and is well positioned to benefit from Mediobanca’s distribution channels, network of investor relationships and market access, as well as its institutional infrastructure and support.
Paul Campbell will continue to be CEO of the company and has agreed, together with the rest of Cairn Capital’s management team, to enter into new, longer term contracts in conjunction with the transaction, ensuring continued strength and stability to the business.
The transaction value does not have a material impact on CET1 of Mediobanca Group.
Dario Epstein, Director at Research for Traders and member of the Advisory Board of Biscayne Capital - Courtesy Photo. "Just as in Life, in the Markets, it’s: Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained"
“This crisis is new. Many of the large fund management companies talk about the “new normal” and, unfortunately, it is very difficult to extrapolate past experience and project it in order to resolve the current situation. Looking in retrospect no longer helps. We are charting a new path along the way, and the prudence partly stems from there: that the path is new”. That’s how Dario Epstein summarizes the current environment and the wait-and-see attitude of investors, with cash at the ready. But, just as in life, in the markets, it’s nothing ventured, nothing gained, he reflects. Epstein is Director at Research for Traders and recently joined the Advisory Board which Biscayne Capital created earlier this year.
When asked about the purpose for his joining the company, Epstein explains that private banking is currently going through a very dynamic phase driven by several factors, the most important of which is the regulatory factor. As a result, in recent months, the compliance department of the institutions has been strengthened significantly. Secondly, there’s the fiscal or tax issue, which has caused the United States, through FATCA, as well as other countries, to focus on trying to eliminate the loop holes, or tax havens, which facilitate tax evasion. In this context, the commercial development of wealth management networks poses a challenge to which the industry is responding. His experience as a former regulator, as well as in market analysis, allows the organization to be focused in these new aspects, and he contributes both his own personal input, as well as that of his company, in order to work more efficiently in the management of portfolios and investment recommendation.
Which products are the most interesting for the Biscayne Capital type of client in the current market environment?
Against this backdrop (China slowing, high probability of rising rates in the US, falling commodity prices, devaluation by China), we are currently adding coverage and protection for long positions and maintaining liquid reserves, although each profile, objectives, and risk appetite has its specific recommendation.
Indeed, in the past few days we have awakened to several consecutive devaluations of the renminbi, and commodity prices at historic lows, how far could this go?
China upset the apple cart and surprised everyone. While devaluation is not important, the impact it later had on all the variables was, deepening the crisis in the currency and equity markets of emerging countries in particular, which are currently less competitive at exporting to China. Even the People’s Bank of China could not stop the trend, indicating on the third day that there is no basis for further depreciation of the yuan (at around 6.40 USDCNY) due to the strong economic fundamentals of the country. That is precisely what is being questioned in the markets. Thursday’s close saw three straight days of devaluation. It is true that the strong fiscal and international reserves position provide good support for the exchange rate, but the slowdown is greater than expected and devaluation was a last resort.
I worry that China may abandon the development of the domestic market, which is its point of inflection in order to grow internally, and devalue its currency for the purpose of increasing competitiveness of its external sector and exports. There are two references (yen and euro)which have devalued strongly in recent years, and with the currencies of emerging countries in sharp depreciation against the dollar, it was to be expected that China take some compensatory measures.
With regard to the prices of commodities, they are very low, my opinion is that they are finding their footing and we expect some insignificant technical rebound. What we do see is that the shares of emerging countries, net exporters of commodities, still have a wide margin of decline, measured in terms of multiples, and may yet fall another 15% -20%.
The Shangay Composite has lost 3.4 trillion dollars and received injections of 900 billion renminbi, according to Goldman Sachs, who says that the regulator still has more than 160 billion dollars: will they have to use them?
It Depends. China is investing money in the market to avoid losses through purchases or provisions to short selling. Obviously the Chinese market has been impacted by two factors: firstly, the monthly addition of millions of new accounts of the country’s residents and, secondly, some slippage in the margin lending which led stock prices to a bubble, contrary to what was going on in the real economy. According to some Chinese market experts this market is extremely trend follower. In this case, the losses were not greater because many companies have suspended their stock exchange and it is now in the hands of the regulator to calm the markets. As I published a few days ago, the Chinese have discovered that capitalism is not easy.
Goldman analysts also believe that the index will range between 3,000 and 4,000 in the short term. Is that possible?
Yes it is, but only if the regulator continues to participate in the process. If it breaks 3,400 there is no significant resistance until 2,800. If the regulator is not involved, the 3,000 barrier will be broken. Although there may be an abrupt change following a more aggressive devaluation; if the currency starts to devalue, the market trend may change.
What does the supposed beginning of rate hikes by the FED add to this situation?
If the FED starts to eliminate all incentives, there will be a negative impact on global growth and the strength of the dollar will increase. The impact of a rise of a quarter point will be liquefied in the first two months. If the market goes up, you run the risk that more investors follow the trend and that we enter into a period of more complex markets in mid-2016.
How will this affect the stock markets in the American continent?
The effect will spread. Brazil is being very badly affected. Its neighbors (Colombia, Peru) will notice the impact on the region, and in Venezuela, where oil is the strong point, it will have great effect. It is very difficult to find countries in the region that are isolated. In terms of currencies and commodity prices we have seen the worst. While there is room for depreciation, we will stabilize in this situation. Some currencies have already devalued; we could be finding a point of balance of the Real at around 3.50. Same with commodities. Not so with the shares, they could still fall.
Which LatAm markets and sectors offer the lowest risk?
Right now our position is more conservative in Latin America.
Brazil is in a very complicated process, entering a recession with negative growth projected in 2015 and 2016. Venezuela is being hit hard, Ecuador going through a difficult process. Basically, after 10 years of very favorable terms for the region, the countries which had the vision to invest in infrastructure and to generate twin surplus (balance of payments and foreign trade), and those who managed to create reserves and countercyclical funds to weather this situation will mark the difference. Brazil has 300 billion dollars in reserves; Peru, Colombia, and Chile also have good reserves.
With respect to Argentina, the markets discern that any of the presidential candidates will have a much more pro-market and international integration rationale. In this backdrop, Argentine assets, which have been underweight in the past, may have an interesting evolution, as so far as other emerging markets do not derail.
Then, where should one be right now?
Cash. The wealthiest families have a high dose of cash and are very expectant. There is much awareness that part of the growth of real estate prices, stocks, and bonds are a result of monetary stimulus, and not of market fundamentals. And at certain prices investors prefer to continue in cash, AAA short-term bonds, banks … the scenario can change within 10 days. In this environment, the strategy is very short-term, waiting on opportunities that may result from the FOMC meeting of the FED, from an acceleration of devaluation in China, or from other macro scenarios.
Is Greece a closed issue?
Today it’s a closed issue, within a year we will have to discuss Greece again because with the current austerity plan, Greece cannot grow. Spain, Italy, and Portugal are facing similar situations: high youth unemployment and austerity. While it is true that a country can’t live in permanent deficit, there are times that countercyclical policies are necessary, and the orthodox prescription of the IMF and Germany is not helping the peripheral economies in Europe to takeoff.
This year we have elections in Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The poor performance by the political left in Greece has weakened the chances for similar groups to gain power in other countries where there is a social demand which must be addressed. Let’s say that the Greek issue is now concealed for a while.
Photo: Dan Nguyen
. S&P Dow Jones Indices Launches Spin-Off, IPO and Activist Interest Indices
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has announced the launch of the S&P U.S. Spin-Off index, the S&P U.S IPO and Spin-Off index and the S&P U.S. Activist Interest index. These three new indices broaden S&P DJI’s event driven index family which includes merger arbitrage indices.
The S&P U.S. Spin-Off index is designed to measure the performance of U.S. companies that have been spun-off from a parent company within the last four years. It is based on the S&P U.S. Broad Market Index (BMI). At each monthly rebalancing, spin-offs that are added to the U.S. BMI and have a float-adjusted market capitalization of at least $1 billion are added to the Index and remain in the Index for up to four years.
The S&P U.S. IPO and Spin-Off index calculates the performance of U.S. companies with in the S&P U.S. BMI that have had initial public offerings (IPOs) or have been spun-off from a parent company within the last five years. The spin-offs should have a float-adjusted market capitalization of at least $1 billion as of the rebalancing reference date while the IPOs are subject to the same criteria but as of the close of their first day of trading.
The S&P U.S. Activist Interest index measures the performance of U.S. domiciled companies that have been targeted by activist investors within the last 24 months. It is an equal-weighted index based on the S&P U.S. BMI. Companies subjected to an activist investor campaign as determined by SEC Form 13D filings are added to the Index, at each monthly balancing, and remain in the Index for a maximum of 24 months.
“Boards of American companies have become more active in pursuing spinoff opportunities and merger activity,” says Vinit Srivastava, Senior Director of Strategy Indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Historically, spin-offs, IPOs and firms targeted by activist investors have generally outperformed the broad market as they uncover value and increase efficiencies. These three new indices, in addition to our existing S&P Merger Arbitrage Index, provide investors sophisticated and transparent benchmarks that reflect how these significant events impact a company’s performance.”
. Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Hires Nick Angilletta to Lead Wealth Management Capital Markets Business
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management (Deutsche AWM) announced that Nicholas Angilletta has joined the Bank as a Managing Director and the Head of Wealth Management Capital Markets in the Americas.
In this new role, he is responsible for managing the trading activities of Deutsche AWM’s Wealth Management Capital Markets business in the Americas. Based in New York, Angilletta reports directly to Yves Dermaux, the Head of the Solutions & Trading Group for Deutsche AWM, and regionally to Jerry Miller, Head of Deutsche AWM in the Americas.
“We are excited Nick has joined our team, as he has extensive experience leading capital markets teams, delivering product solutions, and deepening client relationships,” said Dermaux. “His experience will play a critical role as we look to evolve our wealth management capital markets business in the Americas.”
Angilletta is a 25-year veteran in the financial services industry, focusing his entire career in the wealth management capital markets space at Morgan Stanley. Most recently, as a Managing Director and the Director of Capital Markets and Consulting Group Sales Strategy. Previously, he held various positions at the firm including Head of Sales for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s Global Investment Solutions and Asset Management Business and Head of Smith Barney’s Private Client Sales and Trading desks.
“As we continue to expand Deutsche AWM’s presence in the Americas, we must further enhance our capital markets business on both the asset and wealth management sides of the business to anticipate the needs of our clients and capture greater market share in this important growth region,” said Miller.
. Global Dividends Fall in Q2 as The US Dollar Soars In Value, But Underlying Growth Is Strong
Global dividends fell 6.7% year on year in the second quarter to $404.9bn, a decline of $29.1bn according to the latest Henderson Global Dividend Index. This is the third consecutive quarter of declines, mainly owing to the strength of the US dollar against major world currencies.
The euro, yen and Australian dollar were all a fifth weaker year on year and sterling was down a tenth. The rising dollar knocked a record $52.2bn off the value of dividends paid during the quarter. The HGDI ended the second quarter at 155.1, down 4% from the 161.5 peak in September last year.
Underlying growth, however, which strips out exchange rate movements, special dividends, index changes and changes in the timing of payments, was an encouraging 8.9%.
Q2 is dominated by Europe ex-UK, so trends in that region characterise the global results this quarter, and largely explain the weak headline global growth figure. Two thirds of Europe’s dividends are paid in the period and these fell 14.3% on a headline basis (to $133.7bn), a drop of $22.3bn, with most countries seeing double digit declines. This was almost entirely due to the sharply lower euro against the US dollar. The negative exchange rate effect was a record $29.5bn in the quarter.
Underlying growth was 8.6%, an impressive result for the region with Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium enjoying the highest underlying growth, boosted by a strong performance from financials. Indeed, the region’s financials as a whole significantly increased their payouts, led by Allianz in Germany, which is raising its payout ratio.
This encouraging performance from the sector is part of a growing trend around the world. Danish shipping conglomerate Moller Maersk paid a very large special dividend, while France, the region’s largest payer, saw a slowdown (underlying growth was 2.3%, headline was -20.2%), with weakness at Orange and GDF Suez affecting growth there. German dividends fell 16.0% to $29.9bn, but were 6.6% higher on an underlying basis, with a similar result in Spain (-24.4% headline, +6.0% underlying). In Switzerland, headline dividends fell 2.4% to $17.0bn, owing to a weaker Swiss franc. They rose 5.9% on an underlying basis, with a large increase at UBS contributing to the improvement in European financial dividends.
Once again, US companies grew their dividends rapidly, with almost every sector increasing payouts. Here too, financials showed rapid growth, with Bank of America and Citigroup quintupling their distribution. Overall headline growth was 10.0%, taking the total to $98.6bn, and the US HGDI to a record 186.0. This strong performance marked the sixth consecutive quarter of double digit increases. Underlying growth was a similarly strong 9.3%.
Q2 is also an important quarter for Japan, accounting for almost half the annual total. Headline dividends fell 7.1%, but underlying growth was very impressive, up 16.8% to $23.4bn, as rising profits combined with higher payout ratios to drive dividends higher. Japanese companies are responding to calls from investors and the government to increase the proportion of their profits they return to shareholders (from a very low base compared to other developed markets). South Korea is among other countries seeing the same pressures, and that helped push South Korean dividends higher by 37.4% on an underlying basis year on year, with large increases from Samsung Electronics among others.
Though technology dividends rose fastest, in line with a long running trend, financial dividends grew 0.3% at a headline level year on year, far outperforming the 6.7% global headline decline, and indicating rapid underlying growth. Financials account for roughly a quarter of annual global dividends, so improvements to dividend payments in this industry can make a real difference to income investors.
With underlying growth so encouraging, Henderson has upgraded its forecast for 2015 by $29bn. It now expects global dividends of $1.16 trillion this year, which is down 1.2% at a headline level, but up 7.8% on an underlying basis. The strength of the US dollar against all major currencies explains the marginal headline decline.
Alex Crooke, Head of Global Equity Income at Henderson Global Investors said: “Though the headline decline seems disappointing, it is concealing very positive underlying increases in dividends. The strength of the US dollar had a significant impact again this quarter but our research shows that the effect of currency movements even out over time and investors adopting a longer term approach should largely disregard them. At the sector level, it is encouraging to see increases from financial companies as they start to slowly move towards higher payout levels. But this is less about a renewed boom to financial payouts and more about a gradual return to normality.
“This means a dividend paying culture is extending into new markets, beyond those where paying an income to equity investors is already deeply entrenched, highlighting the increasing income opportunities available to investors who adopt a global approach”, said.
Foto cedidaDe izquierda a derecha, Ánbel Buñesch e Íñigo Iturriaga.. credit suisse
Credit Suisse has announced that Pedro Jorge Villarreal will become the Chief Executive Officer of Mexico, effective immediately. Mr. Villarreal, a 15-year veteran of Credit Suisse, will be taking over the country CEO role from Hector Grisi who is leaving the bank. Mr. Villarreal will continue to hold his current role as the co-head of the Investment Banking Department for Latin America, excluding Brazil. Previously, he led the Investment Banking Department in Mexico for five years.
This appointment marks a natural progression for Mr. Villarreal and for Credit Suisse in Mexico, where the bank has grown significantly over the past half-century into a fully integrated Investment Bank, Private Bank and Asset Management business.
Robert Shafir, CEO of Credit Suisse Americas Region, said: “I am thrilled that Pedro Jorge Villarreal, an established and recognized leader in our Latin America franchise, will be taking on this leadership role as country CEO for Mexico. Mexico’s growing economy brings with it a need for increased financial intermediation, wealth creation and deeper capital markets – and Credit Suisse is uniquely positioned to meet these needs. I expect our success in Mexico to continue under the leadership of Mr. Villarreal. I would also like to thank Mr. Grisi for his considerable contributions during his many years at the bank.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Travis Simon. Legg Mason to Acquire Australian Infrastructure Firm
US asset manager Legg Mason announced that it has agreed to acquire a majority equity interest in Rare Infrastructure, Ltd., (Rare) a global infrastructure asset manager headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Rare has offices in Sydney, Melbourne, London and Chicago and specialises in global listed infrastructure investments, managing $7.6bn (€6.8bn) for institutional and retail clients.
Under the terms of the transaction, Legg Mason will acquire a 75% ownership stake, the Rare’s management team will retain a 15% equity stake and The Treasury Group, a previous minority owner, will retain 10%.
Joseph Sullivan, chairman and CEO of Legg Mason, said, “Rare’s investment expertise has strong relevance for many clients today, meeting important investment objectives including income, growth, diversification and capital preservation. The market for infrastructure investing has grown significantly over the past few years and RARE has participated in this growth, particularly in early adopter markets like Australia and Canada.”
Rare will operate as a core independent investment affiliate along with Brandywine Global, ClearBridge Investments, Martin Currie, the Permal Group, QS Investors, Royce and Associates, and Western Asset Management.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Shizhao. A Quick Look at Possible Implications of China’s Record Weakening of the Renminbi
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has announced yesterday that it is improving the pricing mechanism of the daily fixing rate of the renminbi. It will do this by referencing the previous day’s closing rate and by taking into account “demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange markets” as well as exchange rate movements of other major currencies. As a result, the USDCNY (US dollar to Chinese Yuan Renminbi rate) was fixed higher by 1.9% as a one-off adjustment and represents a record weakening of the Chinese currency. It is the first weakening in the exchange rate by the PBoC since 1994.
The announcement of the PBoC that it will increase yuan flexibility suggests the daily fixing of the currency will be much more dependent on the market. As a result, it is unlikely that the yuan will continue to exhibit relatively low volatility and may continue to depreciate over the medium term as the authorities grapple with a slowdown in economic growth.
For Anthony Doyle, investment director within the M&G Fixed Interest team, there are a number of implications of a weakening yuan over the medium term:
Firstly, any move to weaken the yuan against the USD is likely to be bullish for US treasuries at the margin, resulting in lower yields. If the yuan depreciates in value, then China will have more USD to invest in US treasuries through foreign reserve accumulation, suggesting a strengthening in demand. However, unless we see a sustained weakening in the yuan in the weeks ahead then this move is unlikely to have a large impact in the demand for US treasuries in the short-term.
Secondly, this move will put downward pressure on already low inflation rates in the developed economies. Import prices for developed economies are likely to fall, suggesting lower producer and consumer prices. A substantial amount of Chinese manufactured goods consumed in the developed world are now cheaper and could cheapen further, resulting in lower costs for inputs which could lead to lower consumer prices.
Thirdly, the fall in the yuan will mean the purchasing power of Chinese businesses and households will deteriorate. It will also make raw material prices, which are largely denominated in USD, more expensive. The suggests further downward pressure on commodity prices and further pressure on commodity-rich export nations like Australia, New Zealand and Brazil. A weakening yuan suggests weakening demand and could result in lower growth for economies that export to China and weaker growth for the Asian region.
Any move to liberalise the determination of exchange rates should be viewed positively for the global economy. Given China’s level of importance as a key manufacturer of goods and its huge cache of foreign reserves, it is unsurprising that large moves in the exchange rate can have significant spillover effects for other economies and financial assets. Any further evolution of the determination of the daily fixing rate of the renminbi will continue to be closely watched, especially in an environment where the Chinese economic growth profile continues to be questioned.
Photo: Mauro Sartori
. Investing Lessons from Baseball’s Active Managers
As the popularity of passive investing continues to gain momentum, AB has taken a pause to think about a lesson from baseball. The question is: what kind of equity lineup creates a winning team?
Nobody can deny the increasing shift of equity investors toward index strategies. Net flows to passive US equity funds have reached $21.7 billion this year through June, while investors have pulled $83.7 billion out of actively managed portfolios, according to Morningstar. In this environment, active managers are increasingly challenged to prove their worth and justify their fees.
Building a Winning Lineup
Baseball provides an interesting analogy for the active equity manager. “Across all players in Major League Baseball, the batting average this season is .253, as of August 6. Yet even in today’s statistics-driven environment, you won’t find a single team manager who would choose to put together a lineup of nine players who all bat .253—even if it were possible”, explained James T. Tierney, Chief Investment Officer, Concentrated US Growth.
The reason is clear and intuitive. For a baseball team to be successful, it need to have at least a few hitters who are likely to get hits more often than their peers. And to create a really robust lineup, a manager wants a couple of power hitters who pose a more potent threat. “Of course, some hitters will trend toward the average and slumping players will hit well below the pack. That’s why you need a diverse bunch. A team comprised solely of .253 hitters is unlikely to have the energy or the momentum needed to win those crucial games and make the playoffs”, said Tierney.
False Security in Average Performance
So what does this have to do with investing? “When an investor allocates funds exclusively to passive portfolios, it’s like putting together an equity lineup that is uniformly composed of .253 hitters. This lineup might provide a sense of security because returns will always be in synch with the benchmark. But it’s little consolation if the benchmark slumps. A passive equity lineup won’t be able to rely on any higher-octane performers to pull it through challenging periods of lower, or negative, returns”, point out the CIO.
Still, many investors fear getting stuck with a lineup of .200 hitting active managers. AB believes the best strategy to combat that risk is to focus on investing with high conviction managers, who have a strong track record of beating the market, according to a research.
Passive and Active: The Best of Both Worlds
Passive investing has its merits. Investors have legitimate concerns about fees as well as the ability of active managers to deliver consistent outperformance. The appeal of passive is understandable.
Yet AB believes that putting an entire equity allocation in passive vehicles is flawed. It leaves investors exposed to potential concentration risks and bubbles that often infect the broader equity market. And with equity returns likely to be subdued in the coming years, beating the benchmark by even a percentage point or two will be increasingly important for investors seeking to benefit from compounding returns and meet their long-term goals
“There is another way. By combining passive strategies with high-conviction equity portfolios, investors can enjoy the benefits of an index along with the diversity of performance from an active approach, in our view. Baseball managers don’t settle for average performance. Why should you?”, summarized Tierney.
