Photo: Flickr. Chinese Volatility Provides Longer-Term Buying Opportunities
The huge decline of Chinese equities is a sign of increasing market volatility rather than the start of a bigger correction, argues Lukas Daalder, Chief Investment Officer for Robeco’s Investment Solutions.
Signs that China’s economic slowdown is deepening have sent the Shanghai Composite Index to its biggest one-day percentage loss in eight years. The index closed down 8.5% on Monday. The decline was partly a reaction to the publication of the preliminary Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). This leading indicator declined from 47.8 in July to 47.1 in August, the lowest level since March 2009.
“The shift from an export- and investment-driven economy to a model which is driven by local consumption is a bumpy ride,” says Daalder. “The disappointing PMI report is the newest piece of a growing pile of evidence that the cracks in the Chinese economy are bigger than most investors anticipated. The stock market was already shaken by the sudden depreciation of the renminbi two weeks ago and this is a new shock.”
In a reaction to the falling markets, China has allowed pension funds managed by local governments to invest up to 30% of their net assets in stocks and equity funds. Chinese state media has calculated that this will theoretically allow USD 97 billion to flow into the stock market. “Local governments tend to react quite quickly to this kind of change in legislation”, says Daalder. “We expect China to take additional steps if they are needed for equity markets to calm down. Even a new deprecation of the renminbi cannot be ruled out.”
A difficult choice
Daalder says the Chinese government faces a difficult choice if its current actions fail to create a more stable market climate. “Additional interventions might provide some stability, but that would mark a step back in the shift to a more market driven model,” he says. “It is also a dangerous precedent, for investors have a tendency to get addicted to government support for financial markets quite quickly. On the other hand, without intervention the current panic might lead to a decline of 20%.”
According to Daalder, the base scenario is that the decline in Chinese equity markets is a sign of increasing market volatility rather than the start of a large correction: “Global equity markets have had a steady run-up during the last couple of years, which was not always supported by an improving economy. We have already warned investors that they should prepare themselves for larger price movements and growing uncertainty.”
The effects of the correction on the Chinese stock market are also being felt in different regions and among other asset classes. “China has become an essential part of the world economy,” says Daalder: “The fear of an economic slowdown is putting huge pressure on commodity prices. The oil price has fallen to its lowest level in more than seven years. A correction in commodity prices usually spells bad news for emerging markets.”
Correction creates buying-opportunities
“Financial markets are already quite edgy and in this climate, investors tend to overreact to bad news,” explains Daalder: “As long-term investors, we are plotting the market to see if the price declines are creating buying opportunities in some markets. The correction in the high yield-market illustrates that investors are already bracing themselves for a sharp increase in defaults, anticipating that a lot of shale companies will not be able to survive the collapse in the oil price. There is a good chance that the market is overshooting with this price reaction.”
Another effect of the panic in Chinese equity markets is a possible delay of an interest rate hike in the United States, explains Daalder. “The Federal Reserve has been communicating to financial markets that it intends to raise interest rates in September,” he says. If the markets do not calm down, they might decide to hold off raising interest rates until December. All in all, although the turmoil may continue for some time to come, we are looking at it as a longer-term buying opportunity”.
Photo: BlackRock’s BGF Global Multi-Asset Income Fund portfolio manager, Michael Fredericks. BlackRock: "We Must Begin To Look Beyond The Traditional Income Generating Assets”
Today’s markets have largely been characterized by increasing market volatility coming from diverging global monetary policy and macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, future return expectations across risk assets are more modest than in previous years, causing investors to have to rethink their overall investment strategy.
In this market environment it is very difficult to find assets which generate income while “keeping the risk at bay,” which is one of the obsessions of BlackRock’s BGF Global Multi-Asset Income Fund portfolio manager, Michael Fredericks. The company’s expert is convinced that flexibility and the ability to search for assets beyond traditional income-generating sectors will be a key element for the future, and the market is beginning to realize this.
Proof of this is that traditional income-oriented investments, such as dividend paying equities and high yield bonds, have seen significant inflow in recent years and are beginning to be overvalued. It’s time to look elsewhere.
The strategy, with five star Morningstar rating, has the flexibility to invest across a wide variety of income-producing asset classes, with no regional constraints. “Non-traditional income asset classes such as Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), Preferred Stock, Floating Rate Loans and Emerging Market Debt are often more difficult for individual investors to access yet can offer attractive diversification within a broader income portfolio.”
In addition to derivatives, BlackRock’s Global Multi-Asset Income Fund uses covered call options, “which are very attractive in a low interest rate and low returns environment,” Fredericks said. “In particular, we favor an approach that focuses on writing calls on individual securities rather than on an index as this offers more attractive opportunities to take advantage of market and individual stock volatility. We prefer short maturities, typically writing calls with maturities between 1-3 months, and write options that are on average 5-8% out-of-the-money which allow us to capture 5-8% upside potential on the underlying stock. We believe this approach provides the best risk-adjusted income and return opportunities for our investors.”
For Fredericks, it’s a fact that equities offer attractive value in this environment relative to credit. However, he reminds us that, “it is important to consider an investor’s risk tolerance when increasing an allocation to stocks. While valuations across most stock and bond sectors are at or near elevated levels, we do still think there are opportunities for attractive risk-adjusted yield opportunities, though investors need to tame their expectations for returns. Specific to credit, we believe current spread levels offer investors attractive opportunities for income, but we do not expect significant appreciation above and beyond the coupon from these securities.”
BlackRock’s BGF Global Multi-Asset Income Fund currently has a large percentage of assets invested within the US, mainly in fixed income. “. With bond yields at historic lows across the globe, we have favored exposure to U.S. credit sectors that offer attractive levels of income and ample liquidity,” adds the portfolio manager. However, when talking about the equity portion in the portfolio, Fredericks prefers to avoid the US market and opts for Europe or Japan. The reason is obvious: “quantitative easing programs offer an attractive backdrop for companies with greater exposure to those regions.”
While it’s true that fixed income is starting to look less expensive after a recent increase in yields, the expert from BlackRock, however, heightened volatility within bonds and believe a more tactical approach is necessary during these markets. “We currently favor corporate bonds (both investment grade and below investment grade) over government debt and also find opportunities within the mortgage-backed market, particular commercial mortgage-backed securities and residential non-agency mortgages. Finally, we see value in Preferred Stock, in particular the institutional preferred market which offers attractive income levels but also a fixed-to-floating rate structure which we find attractive amid the possibility of rising interest rates,” he explains.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Hubert Figuière
. Three Important Things about the European Investment-Grade Fixed Income Market
The European Investment-Grade Fixed income team at Pioneer, lead by Tanguy Le Saout, Head of European Fixed Income, Executive Vice President, talked last week about certain developments in the fixed income markets to keep in mind in the short term:
1. Inflation – Down Down, Deeper and Down
Perhaps the reason that global bonds initially rallied was that the Renminbi (RMB) move was seen as a global deflationary move. A weaker RMB (and other Asian currencies) should mean weaker commodity prices, and lower U.S. and European import prices. However, oil is probably the main driver behind some of the big moves in the inflation markets. This week West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to a 6.5 year low. The reason? In our opinion, not so much a lack of demand, but rather a surplus of supply. The International Energy Agency described global oil supply as growing at “breakneck speed”. Coupled with modest demand growth, the situation might suggest further downward pressure on the oil price before a bottom is found. Little wonder then that inflation breakevens globally are falling back towards recent lows. The market appears to be moving away from expecting a pick-up in inflation, to expecting falling inflation again. That could happen in the short-term, but longer-term we believe inflation will move higher.
2. Greece and the ECB – “Hello, Mr Draghi, my old friend”
Former British Prime Minister Edward Heath once remarked that “a week was a long time in politics”. What an apt description for the week that Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras has enjoyed. Firstly, encouraging noises are being made about concluding negotiations on a third bail-out package in time to meet the next repayments to the ECB on 20 August. Secondly, the fiscal targets being set in this package appear to be considerably easier than initially suggested. Thirdly, and probably most surprisingly, Greek Q2 2015 GDP was reported as a stronger-than-expected +0.8%, as opposed to consensus expectations for a fall of 0.5%. So it is worth asking exactly when Greek bonds might be eligible for the ECB’s QE bond-buying programme? The ECB would have to reinstate the waiver of the minimum rating criteria for Greek government debt. However, that could come potentially as soon as European Stability Mechanism approval of the first tranche of loans. Could you have imagined back in early July that the ECB might be buying Greek government bonds by the end of 2015? No, us neither.
3. What’s happening to the Swiss Franc?
In all the excitement about the Chinese RMB movements, not much attention is being paid to the recent surprising depreciation of the Swiss Franc. Following the surprise abandonment of the floor against the Euro back in January 2015, the Swiss Franc had settled around the 1.05 level against the Euro. But in the last few weeks, it’s fallen about 4% to a level of 1.09. Perhaps the resolution of the Greek situation has led to some reversal of safe-haven flows. Or maybe, the Swiss National Bank is quietly intervening in the market. And one thing we on the European Fixed Income Investment-Grade Team have noticed is that liquidity is quite scarce in the Swiss Franc, as investors have struggled to understand the Swiss National Bank’s currency policy. Therefore, intervention would have a bigger impact in an illiquid market. Either way, for the moment, it’s a currency that we prefer to watch rather than trade.
Photo: phylevn
. Alternative Investments Grew by 19% Amongst Minority Investors
According to a report published by the Money Management Institute estimating the increase recorded in 2014 at 19%, the popularity of alternative investments is growing rapidly among minority investors, indicating a paradigm shift not seen since the advent of exchange-traded funds in 1993.
Institutional investors have, for a long time, used alternative strategies, a broad category which includes everything from real estate and private equity to hedge funds and private-placement debt, as a vital tool to cover the risk of more traditional long-term strategies, which make up most of their equity portfolios.
But now it’s not just them, but individual investors are also positioning themselves in line with the investment options, especially following the global downturn in the financial markets in 2008. Since then, their focus has expanded beyond shares and bonds, to a world of assets which provide a high level of diversificationnon-correlated with the average ‘Main Street’ portfolio.
Historically, access to these alternative investments was limited to qualified investors, but that barrier is fading, largely because the financial services industry has created vehicles that provide access to alternatives. Thus, mutual funds, with ETFs following closely behind, are currently the most popular vehicles for minority investors.
With a retail market of $ 11.6 trillion in mutual funds, it is not surprising that the financial industry is wildly running to accommodate the growing demand for alternative investment vehicles. Although the amount of $ 139 billion currently included in alternative investment funds is relatively small, that figure has grown steadily over the past five years. Although hedge funds experienced an outflow amounting to $ 6.9 billion in 2013, liquid alternative investment funds gained a further 40 billion during the same period.
Private investors may also gain access to alternative strategies through a network of investment advisors. A large number of private investors already have their own registered investment adviser (RIA) to enter the world of real estate, private placement debt, and direct investments, as well as other alternative strategies. Meanwhile, over 81% of investment advisors are already working with alternative investments for their clients, compared with 74% last year, according to an industry survey.
Prodigy Network, one of the world’s largest Crowd-investing platforms, which invests in Manhattan real estate, is an example of a successful and innovative prospect. The company has successfully raised more than $ 850 million, 30% of which comes from more than 6,200 investors who make up their “crowd”. Together with FlexFunds, an ETPs issuer (Exchange Traded Products), it created a solution that would provide a management and distribution system which would allow investors to participate directly through its investment account.
Another company which fits entirely into the alternative investment category is NXTP Labs, a private investment fund with an accelerated program focused on growing new technology companies with global or regional business in Latin America, which has a strong track record in supporting, accelerating, and selling companies. In its case, it created an ETP, also through FlexFunds, which provides investment advisors with a vehicle, which allows its clients to participate in the direct investment segment of alternative investments.
It seems that, as the alternative investment sector grows, the most innovative platforms, associations, and efficient services, will evolve with them.
Jay Pelham - Courtesy Photo. TotalBank Creates a Private Client Group Headed by Jay Pelham
TotalBank has announced the creation of a new division, Private Client Group, and the appointment of Jay Pelham as its Executive Vice President. Pelham will be responsible for overseeing the Private Client Group division that also houses the Bank’s Total Wealth Management. Private Client Group will also include concierge banking, lending, and wealth management to high-net-worth individuals and professionals.
In his new position, he will also service and enhance existing private client relationships and develop profitable relationships with new clients, targeting professionals and high-net-worth individuals.
Pelham was most recently at Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust as Executive Vice President of Private Banking. He began his financial services career at SunTrust Bank more than 25 years ago in commercial lending, later transitioning to private banking in 2000 as the Private Banking Manager for Miami-Dade County.
Pelham graduated magna cum laude from the University of Tennessee with a bachelor’s degree in economics. He is also a certified financial planner and holds licenses in life, health and variable annuities
Photo: Jean-Marc Stenger, CIO for Alternative Investments at Lyxor, pick up the award in the ceremony. Lyxor AM Wins "Transparency" Award at Distrib Invest’s Ceremony
Lyxor AM won the Transparency award «Les Coupoles» in the “Integrated Financial Groups” category at Distrib Invest’s ceremony, which took place on June 18th in Paris.
The magazine Distrib Invest reward French fund distributors and fund selectors for the quality of their financial reporting.
In its category, Lyxor won this award ahead of La Française and Amundi. “This distinction confirms the success of Lyxor’s strategy, which is based on the quality and transparency of its investment solutions”, said Lyxor.
Jean-Marc Stenger, CIO for Alternative Investments at Lyxor, pick up the award in the ceremony.
Photo: Trey Raatcliff, Flickr, Creative Commons. Renminbi Devaluation: The Impact, Country by Country
China has devaluated its currency, Renminbi. Theses moves shows China is using both domestic (fiscal, monetary) and external (currency) levers to support growth. CNY depreciation will have a negative impact on commodities (given China is the largest consumer) and commodity exporting countries -Indonesia, Malaysia-. If this leads to further easing from other countries, it will be positive for equities, says Mirae Asset.
Impact in China
PBOC’s weakening of CNY may lead to further depreciation, which might not be all negative. “Historically, we have seen currency adjustment as a beneficial tool to boost exports and therefore economic growth”.
However, the risks of currency wars remain. China is in a strong position to defend its currency thanks to it’s large FX reserves and low offshore borrowing. Rather than looking at USD/CNY, China might prevent further appreciation of REER. Emerging Asia constitutes about 20% of China’s total trade, with Europe and Japan accounting for around 40%, according to the experts.
Even if China does want to reverse the appreciation of CNY vs other Asian currencies, it would imply a ~10% depreciation in CNY. On various models, RMB is around 10% overvalued on an average of various frameworks.
“Overall, for the financial sector, we are entering into a lower growth environment, with the asset quality cycle turning and a not-so-conducive operating backdrop. As a result, we maintain an Underweight the financial sector. In such an environment we prefer countries where monetary easing will have the ability to deliver a boost to domestic demand and those with low credit penetration (India, Indonesia, Philippines). Apart from these countries, we continue to like Chinese life insurance companies where protection gap is significant and the industry is showing signs of turnaround for the past 18 months”, says Mirae Asset.
Negative for exporters and ASEAN countries
However on a broader macro perspective, it is negative for exporters to China (or countries with close linkages with China) like Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. ASEAN may be impacted due to second order effects with their currencies depreciation and reducing the scope of interest rate cuts as currencies remains under pressure.
Regarding the US rate hike, “on the flip side, it might possibly lead to a postponement of US rate hikes, as strong USD and disinflation- ary impulse due to actions of various central banks (CN, EU, JP) might impact the conditions within the US. Furthermore, the notion of substantial real weakness in China (which the FX move indirectly signals) is, in itself, not inmaterial”.
Mirae Asset also analyses the impact of the devaluation in Renminbi, sector by sector:
Photo: YoTuT
. Nikko AM Appoints Sumi Trust as Fund Administrator
Sumi Trust Global Asset Services has won a mandate from Nikko AM Global Cayman, a subsidiary of Nikko Asset Management, to serve as their fund administrator and provide a full range of fund administration and asset support services.
SuMi Trust will provide fund administration services to Nikko Asset Management’s Japanese-domiciled and off-shore fund structures which will be launched in the future. Nikko Asset Management has entrusted six new funds, in addition to six existing funds from other administrators, to Sumi Ttust.
The funds, which are all Cayman-domiciled, together account for $2.7bn (€2.4bn) in AUM, with each following a dedicated investment strategy. These strategies include global and regional equities, currencies, fixed income and natural resources securities.
Nikko Asset Management, which holds assets under management of $161.9bn (€146.5bn) as of March 2015, is one of Asia’s largest, oldest and most respected asset management firms. Nikko Asset Management is part of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, which owns Sumi Trust Global Asset Services.
Nikko Asset Management’s decision demonstrates the benefits of the cross-integration of services between complementary business units within the SMTB group. Meanwhile, this recognition by the asset management firm underscores Sumi Trust’s ability to service funds trading a large number of different asset classes.
Hiromitsu Tanaka, CEO of Sumi Trust Ireland, commented: “With a track record of more than 25 years of providing fund administration support for both regulated and off shore fund structures, we’re very proud that Nikko Asset Management decided to entrust a greater share of their assets to Sumi Trust.
“Our fund administration business in Ireland has enjoyed tremendous success over the past year in attracting business from independent asset managers that are looking to launch new products and replace their administration partner in response to the increasing demands of the global financial services industry.”
Investors remain open to risk despite market jitters around crises such as China and Greece, according to the findings of the latest Risk Rotation Index by NN Investment Partners.
The research revealed that 28.3% of the panel of global institutional fund managers surveyed said that they had increased their appetite for risk over the previous six months compared to 18.3% who said that their appetite had decreased, leaving overall net risk appetite at +10%.
However, in spite of this confidence, investors have growing concerns over a potential Eurozone crisis, with 49% of respondents citing it as a ‘significant’ threat to their portfolios – up from 35% in the previous quarter – while one in eight (13%) view it as a ‘very significant’ threat.
Valentijn van Nieuwenhuijzen, Head of Strategy, Multi-Asset at NN Investment Partners, says: “A Eurozone crisis was viewed as significant threat by almost half (49%) of investors who appear to be approaching the current situation with both caution and confidence.
“Greece may have jolted markets but the Eurozone survived. The Chinese crisis – we think we can call it a crisis by now – is creating serious problems for the commodity exporters and the countries that sell the most capital goods to China.”
“Despite market jitters investors still have confidence in the market and retain some optimism with the recent pick-up in growth in the US and Japan. As we are back in calmer waters (at least temporarily), we upgraded equities from neutral to a small overweight which was our stance before Greece and China spoiled the party.”
Away from the Eurozone, other potential dangers such as a black swan event (24%) and a Chinese slowdown (21%) were also named by investors as events of which they were wary.
As well as indicating a preference for risk amongst investors, the research also hinted at growing stability within investors’ portfolios. Indeed, more than half (53%) of the panel stated that they had not adjusted their risk profile over previous six months – the highest proportion since the index was launched in 2013.
In order to mitigate potential risk over the coming months, investors appear to be most in favour of using multi-asset (74%) and equity strategies (56%). When broken down there is little difference in preference between balanced and total return multi-asset strategies – 37.3% vs. 36.3% – meaning that individually both strategies are more favoured amongst investors than illiquid assets such as private equity and mortgages (26%), hedge funds (22%) and high dividend (18%).
Van Nieuwenhuijzen continues: “In the current investment climate there are a great number of pockets of opportunity for investors – but also a great number of potential pitfalls. It is therefore important for investors to deploy the right strategy to ensure yield whilst simultaneously mitigating market turbulence. Indeed, our survey reveals that 46% of investors have diversified their portfolios to manage risk over the past year, and we believe that multi-asset strategies such as balanced or total return funds provide investors with the exposure to risk that provide them with a steady yield stream – even in an uncertain economic landscape.”
When looking at the asset classes most favoured in terms of risk versus return over the coming three months, investors stated a preference for equities (34%), followed by real estate (17%) and government bonds (14%). The most favourable geographical regions in terms of risk versus return were the US (46%), Japan (38%) and the Eurozone (29%).
Photo: Natesh Ramasamy
. Deutsche Bank Group Announces The Sale of Its India Asset Management Business
Deutsche Bank Group announced that it has entered into an agreement to sell its India asset management business to Pramerica Asset Managers Pvt. Ltd., subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.
Pramerica Asset Managers is the asset management business in India of Pramerica Investment Management (PIM), whose multi-manager asset management businesses collectively rank among the top 10 institutional money managers in the world, according to Pensions & Investments. The sale is a continuation of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management’s global initiative to further focus its business on developing and strengthening its regional centres of investment excellence, with the ultimate aim of delivering consistently superior performance to clients across all asset classes and investment strategies.
Ravi Raju, Head of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, Asia Pacific, said: “Deutsche Bank Group’s asset management business was established in 2003, and is now the second largest foreign asset manager in India. We have built a strong brand with a well respected investment and coverage team. This solid foundation will be passed on to Pramerica, which is an internationally respected asset manager with broad product capabilities and expertise. We are confident that with Pramerica’s global footprint and track record of integrating and working with local partners in key markets, the business will continue to perform well following the integration. We are committed to working with Pramerica to ensure a smooth transition for clients, staff and other stakeholders.”
Ravneet Gill, Chief Executive Officer, Deutsche Bank Group India said: “The divestment of our asset management business is in line with our strategy of focusing on our core businesses where we can achieve a leadership position. Deutsche Bank Group’s overall India franchise has posted strong financial results, and we remain absolutely committed to further investment and development of our business here given that India is strategically important to the bank’s global growth aspirations.”
Glen Baptist, Chief Executive Officer of Pramerica International Investments, said, “The strong track record of Deutsche Bank Group’s asset management business in India, its talented leadership team, and deep relationships with institutional clients and distribution partners, perfectly complement the sales, investment and product capabilities of our existing business. When the transaction is completed, we will have the scale and platform necessary to make our investment strategies available to clients across India and put us within sight of the top 10 asset management businesses. We are confident that the combined business, and our new joint venture with DHFL, will enable us to achieve our strategic priority of building an industry-leading India asset management business.”
Pramerica’s new JV with DHFL, which will benefit from DHFL’s 30 years of financial services experience in India when the transaction is completed, will be renamed DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers upon regulatory approval.
Deutsche Asset Management established its business in India in 2003 and today has INR 20,720 crore (EUR 2.9 billion) average assets under management (as of quarter Apr-Jun 2015), making it the second-largest 100% foreign-owned asset manager in India.
Over the last decade, the firm has built a strong investment performance track record. Its product portfolio spans debt and equity schemes; domestic and offshore funds.
Deutsche Asset Management (India) is the Mutual Fund business of Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management in India.
