The High Yield Bond Market Has Trebled in Size in The Last 10 Years

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El mercado de deuda high yield se triplica en 10 años
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Chris Bullock, credit analyst at Henderson and co-manager on the Euro Corporate Bond Fund and Euro High Yield Bond Funds. . The High Yield Bond Market Has Trebled in Size in The Last 10 Years

High yield bonds have been a staple of US portfolios for more than thirty years, and the trends that have led to a large and well-developed US market are beginning to establish themselves elsewhere as companies increasingly turn to high yield bonds as a source of funding.

This growing global supply creates greater choice for investors at a time when demand for high yield bonds is also increasing because of the favourable risk/return and yield characteristics of the asset class.

High yield bonds are corporate bonds that carry a subinvestment grade credit rating. They are typically issued by companies with a higher risk of default, hence the higher yields. Henderson believe the following factors combine to make high yield bonds an attractive investment:

  • Growing and globalising market
  • High income in a low yield world
  • Low sensitivity to the interest rate cycle
  • Default rates expected to remain low
  • Significant opportunities for credit selection
  • A growing and globalising market

As the table shows, the high yield bond market has trebled in size in the last 10 years and, geographically, is becoming more diverse. “In part, this reflects a more confident and established market, as well as companies increasingly turning to the high yield bond market after banks cut back on lending following the financial crisis”, points out Chris Bullock, credit analyst at Henderson and co-manager on the Euro Corporate Bond Fund and Euro High Yield Bond Funds.

Today, the high yield market comprises a vast range of companies from household giants such as Tesco, Heinz and Telecom Italia through to small and medium-sized companies that are raising funding through bond markets for the first time. This creates an attractive and expanding mix of issuers that can reward strong credit analysis.

High income in a low yield world

High yield bonds continue to offer an attractive income pick-up.

Yields in many fixed income sub-asset classes are still close to historical lows despite recent rates market volatility. Yields have been driven by low global central bank rates combined with quantitative easing (QE). In the first half of 2015 alone, 33 central banks cut interest rates, while the ECB embarked on its €60bn-a-month quantitative easing programme.

From a risk-return perspective, high yield bonds are typically seen as occupying the space between investment grade bonds and equities. As the chart shows, over the last 15 years, high yield bonds have outperformed investment grade corporate bonds, government bonds and even equities, with less volatility than equities. The high income element in high yield bonds has been a valuable component of total return.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

David Steyn Appointed as CEO and Chairman of the Management Board of Robeco

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David Steyn, nuevo CEO de Robeco tras la salida de Roderick Munsters
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. David Steyn Appointed as CEO and Chairman of the Management Board of Robeco

Robeco today announces the appointment of Mr. David Steyn (1959) as Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Management Board of Robeco Groep N.V. (‘Robeco’) as of 1 November 2015.

David Steyn has over 35 years of international experience in asset management, in management, distribution and investment roles. Previously David Steyn was in charge of strategy at Aberdeen Asset Management plc and chief operating officer and head of distribution at AllianceBernstein LP, based in London and New York. He studied law at the University of Aberdeen.  

David Steyn, said: “I am honored to be given the opportunity to become part of an asset manager with such a strong heritage and reputation. I am looking forward to building Robeco further on a continuing path of excellence, meeting the evolving needs of clients around the world.

Dick Verbeek, Chairman of the Supervisory Board, said: “The Supervisory Board has given positive advice to the shareholders, because we believe that David is an excellent candidate for CEO of Robeco to continue the growth path. I’m confident that we can count on David’s long and proven track record in asset management to lead Robeco and benefit from the opportunities that will arise in the global asset management market in the years to come. On behalf of the entire company, I would like to extend him a warm welcome.”

Makoto Inoue, President and Chief Executive Officer of ORIX Corporation and member of Robeco’s Supervisory Board, said: “I am delighted to welcome David Steyn to Robeco. I am convinced that together with the members of the Management Board and staff at Robeco he will be able to accelerate Robeco’s growth ambitions globally while continuing to deliver great results for clients.”

The appointment of David Steyn is subject to formal approval by the relevant Dutch authorities. Once the regulatory approval has been obtained, David Steyn will work closely together with Roderick Munsters, whose departure was announced earlier this month, to ensure a smooth transition.

Dividend: It Is Essential To Analyze The Long Term Sustainability To Avoid ‘Value Traps’

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Photo: Nicu Buculei . Dividend: It Is Essential To Analyze The Long Term Sustainability To Avoid ‘Value Traps’

The case for equity income investing continues to strengthen. Worldwide, quoted companies paid out a record $1 trillion in dividends last year, according to the Henderson Global Dividend Index, a long-term study of global dividend trends. By investing globally, investors can gain exposure to a broader range of income opportunities and benefit from significant portfolio diversification. 

Broadening opportunity set

Companies increasingly recognise the benefits of attracting investors by being able to demonstrate a strong and growing dividend policy. This is well established in Europe and the US but the dividend culture is now providing increased opportunities in regions such as Asia-Pacific and selected emerging markets. This broadening universe provides an attractive diversification opportunity for equity income investors.

Long-term outperformance

Studies indicate that dividends generate a significant proportion of the total returns from equities over time. The combination of reinvested income with potential capital growth has led to long-term outperformance of higher dividend paying companies compared to the wider equity market, as shown in the chart below.

Reasons for this outperformance include:

  • A focus on cashflow is required in order for dividends to be sustained; dividends are therefore a strong indicator of the underlying health of the business.
  • Higher yielding shares by their nature tend to be more contrarian and out of favour thus offering revaluation opportunities.
  • Maintaining a healthy dividend stream imposes a disciplined approach on a company’s management team and can improve decision making.

Risk reduction – diversification benefits

As more companies globally pay dividends, the potential to diversify increases. Some markets suffer from high dividend concentration and as a result equity income strategies focused on single countries may become overly reliant on a low number of high-yielding companies that dominate the market. A global remit also maximises the opportunities at a sector level; for example, many high yielding technology companies can be accessed through investing in the US or Asia, but not the UK.

Key considerations

  • Look beyond the headline yield: High-yielding equities can be more risky than their lower-yielding counterparts, particularly after a period of strong market performance when equity price rises push yields down. The high-yielding companies that are left are often structurally-challenged businesses or companies with high payout ratios (distributing a high percentage of their earnings as dividends) that may not be sustainable. An investor simply focusing on yields, or gaining exposure through a passive product such as a high-yield index tracker fund, may end up owning a disproportionate percentage of these companies, often known as ‘value traps’. It is also worth noting that companies which cut their dividends tend to suffer poor capital performance as well. Therefore, it is essential to analyse the sustainability of a company’s ability to pay income.
  • Seasonality: A global approach offers equity investors diversification benefits and the opportunity to receive income from different sources throughout the year. Most regions show some dividend seasonality. European companies typically pay out more than three fifths of their annual total during the second quarter according to data within the Henderson Global Dividend Index. This is by far the region with the most concentrated dividend period. North America shows the least seasonality of any region with many firms making quarterly payments. UK firms also spread payments more smoothly than other parts of the world, although larger final dividends tend to be paid in the spring and summer following the annual general meeting season.
  • Dividend outlook: Overall, we are encouraged by the health of global companies generally, with strong balance sheets and disciplined management teams focused on generating good cashflow, which should be supportive for dividend growth in the long run.

 

 

 

 

Mirae Asset Global Investments Grows Equity Analyst Team in U.S.

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Mirae Asset Global Investments refuerza su equipo de análisis de renta variable global con cuatro incorporaciones
Photo: Matthias Rhomberg . Mirae Asset Global Investments Grows Equity Analyst Team in U.S.

Mirae Asset Global Investments has announced the hiring of four analysts to expand its global equity research team in the United States.The new investment analysts are based in New York and report to Jose Gerardo Morales, Chief Investment Officer. They are responsible for providing research and analysis in support of Mirae Asset USA’s mutual funds and international sub-advisory portfolios. The additions bring the total number of equity investment professionals with Mirae Asset USA to eight.

The additions to the investment team include:

Tatiana Feldman is a senior investment analyst focusing on global emerging markets ex-Asia. Prior to joining Mirae Asset USA, Mrs. Feldman served as an investment analyst with INCA Investments, an equity research analyst at Brasil Plural and a senior analyst at Morgan Stanley covering Latin America. Mrs. Feldman holds a bachelor of journalism and mass communications degree from New York University.

SungWon Song, Ph.D. is an investment analyst focusing on the global healthcare sector. Prior to joining Mirae Asset USA, Dr. Song worked at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, where he served as a postdoctoral research fellow, and The Ohio State University, where he worked as a Graduate Research Associate. Dr. Song holds a Ph.D. in Molecular Cellular Developmental Biology from The Ohio State University, a master’s in biotechnology of biological sciences from Columbia University and a bachelor of biotechnology and genetic engineering from Korea University.

Malcolm Dorson is an investment analyst focusing on global emerging markets ex-Asia. Prior to joining Mirae Asset USA, Mr. Dorson worked as an investment analyst at Ashmore Group covering Latin America and at Citigroup, as an assistant vice president focusing on asset management for ultra-high net worth clients. Mr. Dorson holds an M.B.A. from the Wharton School, an M.A. in international studies from the Lauder Institute and a bachelor of arts degree from the University of Pennsylvania.

Michael Dolacky is an investment analyst focusing on the global healthcare sector. Prior to joining Mirae Asset USA, Mr. Dolacky was an investment analyst with Senzar Asset Management and a fixed income analyst at Nomura Securities. Mr. Dolacky holds a bachelor of economics degree from Tufts University.

“We are committed to growing our investment infrastructure in the U.S. and building upon Mirae Asset’s reputation as a leading source of global investment expertise,” said Peter Graham, CEO of Mirae Asset USA. “Each of these new analysts brings a wealth of experience, diverse expertise and deep understanding of the markets or sectors they cover.”

Investec Global Insights 2015 Will Gather 250 Investors From 23 Countries in London

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Next week, Investec Asset Management shall have the pleasure of organizing the eighth edition of its global investment conference, Investec Global Insights 2015. The asset management company will gather 250 delegates from 23 countries worldwide in London, with the aim of providing its clients with the most complete and updated analysis for making their investment decisions.

After the last twelve months, during which the market has undergone some significant changes, the content of the conference is more relevant than ever. Attendees from the United States, Latin America, Europe, UK, Middle East, Africa, and Asia will have the opportunity to attend several ‘Meet the Portfolio Manager’ sessions and interact with peers from major fund buyers from all around the world.

This year, some of the featured presentations will focus on the following topics:

  • Is it still worth investing in emerging markets?
  • Are developed markets looking stretched?
  • When will rates rise and what will be the impact?
  • How do you find sustainable sources of income?

Outside the purely financial field, the conference will feature the starring presentation of Francois Pienaar, captain of the South Africa National Rugby Union team from 1993 to 1996. He will share his experiences, which led the team to win the Rugby World Cup in 1995. In Invictus, the film based on this feat directed by Clint Eastwood, Pienaar is played by Matt Damon.

Richard Garland, Investec’s Managing Director, will act as conductor of the event for the duration of the conference.

For further information on the event’s agenda please consult the attached document.

Japan: Goodbye Deflation?

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Japón: ¿Adiós a la deflación?
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: OTA fotos. Japan: Goodbye Deflation?

Shinzō Abe had ambitious plans following his re-election as Prime Minister of Japan in 2012. He was prepared to pull all the levers available to him, in the form of radical economic and reformist polices, to end Japan’s ‘lost decades’ of crippling deflation. While the success of his reformist policies might be up for debate, his monetary and fiscal stimulus plans have finally seen both inflation and the stock market moving in the right direction – upwards (see chart below). “Abe ‘gets it’: everything that can be done to end deflation and return to growth must be done. And the only way to dig yourself out of deflation is to aggressively inflate your way out of it”, writes the Japanese Equity Team at Henderson.

Land of rising inflation (just)

Banks bounce back

These policies have helped Japanese equities to become one of the best performing asset classes so far this year, albeit at the expense of a significantly weakened yen. One particular beneficiary has been financials, point out Henderson. In recent years the sector has been buoyed by banks finally writing-off legacy bad loans, leaving their balance sheets stronger than most of their developed world counterparts. In addition, the banks’ Tier 1 capital ratios have been buoyed by the surge in the equity market.

For most western banks, this capital tends to be held in low-risk fixed income assets, with a low percentage held in equities. However, in Japan a significant proportion is held in non-financial domestic equities. In a reflationary environment, this surge in equity shareholdings has bolstered the capital of banks, leaving them far more sufficiently capitalised to withstand any unforeseen shocks, while also being well positioned to benefit from any recovery in the domestic economy.

The road ahead

Longer term, financials are set to benefit from any rise in interest rates, which have remained ultra-low in Japan for decades. A rise – albeit likely a very small and gradual one – would allow banks to earn a higher net interest margin. That is, the margin on what can be earned from the lending activities of banks, versus what is paid to depositors, increases. However, this currently feels like a distant prospect, with markets not forecasting a rise in rates until the second half of 2016.

“In the meantime, we see opportunities in those domestically-orientated companies that are likely to benefit from a recovery in the economy. Most notably the service and retail sectors should benefit, following the lull induced by the 2014 consumption tax hike, which saw the tax on goods and services rise from 5% to 8%. Stocks we hold in these sectors include Rakuten, Japan’s leading ecommerce company, and Fujitsu. The latter has new management, which we hope will focus more on its highly cash-generative core IT service business”, explains the Japanese Equity Team.

“It is too early for Abe to claim economic victory. However, should he continue with his economic and reformist policies, we could finally see a return to something approaching ‘normality’, much to the relief of the country’s ever-patient investor base”, concludes.

 

Economic Uncertainties in The U.S. Keeping CFOs Up at Night

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Los directores financieros de Estados Unidos, a la caza de talento
Photo: Deurim Poyu. Economic Uncertainties in The U.S. Keeping CFOs Up at Night

The nation’s finance chiefs are relatively optimistic about the future, but remain cautious in the face of domestic uncertainties like Congressional inaction on tax reform. This is according to the latest edition of Grant Thornton LLP’s CFO Survey, which reflects the insights of more than 900 chief financial officers and other senior financial executives across the United States.

More than half (55 percent) of CFOs say uncertainty in the U.S. economy is a major concern that could impact their businesses’ growth in the next 12 months. This is despite the fact that most CFOs expect the U.S. economy overall to remain the same (49 percent) or improve (43 percent) in the next 12 months, suggesting that factors other than the overall health of the economy are presenting a barrier to growth.

“While the U.S. economy has stabilized, our data suggest that uncertainty related to other economic factors is making strategic planning difficult for financial executives,” said Randy Robason, Grant Thornton’s national managing partner of Tax Services. “CFOs are looking to Washington, regulators and the Federal Reserve for answers and getting nothing but indecision.”

 

Business leaders’ concern over these economic uncertainties appears to have increased significantly since earlier this year. In May 2015, only net 22 percent of U.S. business leaders saw economic uncertainty as a major constraint on their ability to grow in the coming year, according to the Grant Thornton International Business Report.

Particularly frustrating for CFOs is the dysfunction in Congress over a bill to extend more than 50 popular tax provisions that expired at the end of 2014.

Meanwhile, good news for finance professionals: CFOs are aggressively looking to develop and hire new talent. The vast majority (70 percent) of CFOs say finding and retaining the right talent is a critical need for supporting growth. Forty percent expect their business’s new hiring to increase in the next six months; 52 percent expect hiring to remain the same. A majority of CFOs (67 percent) plan to increase salaries in the coming year, holding steady since 2014.

 

Put Your Bond Manager to the Liquidity Test

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Las tres preguntas clave sobre liquidez que hay que hacerle a los gestores de deuda
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. Put Your Bond Manager to the Liquidity Test

Bond market liquidity is drying up—something every investor and financial advisor should take seriously. But liquidity risk can also provide an additional source of returns. The trick is knowing how to manage it, point out AB.

This is why picking the right manager is critical. Before entrusting money to anyone, investors or their advisors should make sure prospective managers understand why liquidity is evaporating and have an investment process that can effectively manage this growing risk.

In AB’s view, settling for anything less will make it harder to protect your portfolio from the damage less liquid markets can cause—and to seize the opportunities they offer.

Here are some questions that Douglas J. Peebles, Chief Investment Officer and Head at AllianceBernstein Fixed Income, and Ashish Shah, Head of Global Credit, feel investors should be asking.

1) To what do you attribute the decline in liquidity?

For most people, an asset is liquid if it can be bought or sold quickly without significantly affecting its price—something that’s become more difficult lately.

Many market participants blame post–financial crisis banking regulations. Designed to make banks safer, the new rules have also made them less willing to take risks. Consequently, most banks are no longer big buyers and sellers of corporate bonds. In the past, banks’ involvement—particularly in high yield—helped keep price fluctuations in check and meant investors could usually count on them as buyers when others wanted to sell.

But because they affect the supply of liquidity, regulations are only part of the story. Several other trends have drastically increased the potential demand for liquidity. These include investor crowding and the growing use of risk-management strategies that use leverage and make it hard for investors to ride out short-term volatility.

In one way or another, these trends have driven investors around the world to behave in the same way at the same time. That distorts asset prices and suggests investors may find that their asset isn’t liquid when they need it to be. If a shock hits the market and a fire starts, each of these trends may act as an accelerant.

Managers who think regulation is the only cause of the liquidity drought probably aren’t seeing the big picture. That could make your portfolio more vulnerable in a crisis.

2) Has your investment process changed as liquidity has dried up?

Since it’s risky to assume that liquidity will be there when it’s needed, a manager should be comfortable with the notion of holding the bonds in his or her portfolio for a long time—possibly to maturity (Display). Since that requires deep analysis and a selective eye, ask about a manager’s credit research process and how it has changed.

Managers should also be reducing the risk of getting trapped in crowded trades by taking a multi-sector approach. This way, if selling spikes in one overcrowded corner of the credit market—let’s say emerging markets or high yield—investment managers can quickly and easily move into investment-grade bonds or another sector where liquidity is more plentiful.

Staying out of crowded trades also puts investors in a position to make decisions based on value, not popularity. Managers who do this—and who keep some cash on hand—will be in a better position to swoop in and buy attractive assets when others are desperate to sell.

This ability to be agile and take the other side of popular trades can be a crucial advantage when other investors have to sell. Think of those who used the 2013 “taper tantrum” to buy attractive bonds when everyone else was hitting the sell button. For providing liquidity when others needed it, they were compensated with higher yields.

3) How are you dealing with volatility?

Volatility is a fact of life in markets, and investors should expect more of it as liquidity dries up. The best thing a manager can do is to be prepared.

For instance, does the manager buy “call” or “put” options—the right to buy or sell an asset in the future at a predetermined price to protect against a big liquidity-induced market move? In our view, doing so is a lot like spending $3 on an umbrella when the sun is shining. After all, it’s going to rain eventually.

The alternative—waiting until volatility rises and prices fall before selling—is akin to buying the umbrella after the storm has started. Chances are you’ll pay $5 for it—and you’ll get soaked as you run through the rain to get it.

4) What role do traders play?

Historically, traders at asset management firms mostly executed orders. But as banks have retreated from the bond-trading business, the responsibilities of buy-side traders have grown. Managers who embrace a hands-on role for traders are more likely to turn illiquidity to their advantage.

A few questions to consider: Do traders play an active role in the entire investment process? Are they skilled enough to find sources of liquidity when it’s scarce and make the most of opportunities caused by its ebb and flow? Do traders understand the manager’s strategies?

If a manager can’t answer these questions, advisors should find someone else to oversee their clients’ assets.

Stelac Advisory Services Hires Gabriel Garcia, Carlos Machado and Nacho Contreras, and Opens an Office in Miami

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Stelac Advisory Services contrata a Gabriel Garcia, Carlos Machado y Nacho Contreras, y abre oficina en Miami
Photo: Rusan Estudio / Courtesy Photo. Stelac Advisory Services Hires Gabriel Garcia, Carlos Machado and Nacho Contreras, and Opens an Office in Miami

Stelac Advisory Services, a multi family office based in New York co-founded and headed by Carlos Padula, has closed three high level contracts over the past two months.

Gabriel Garcia Daumen joinsfrom UBS WM Americas International, where he was responsible for the selection of offshore mutual funds and hedge funds for the UBS platform. He joined the team as Head of Research and Direct Investments last July. Before joining UBS WM in 2007, Gabriel Garcia worked at PWC and prior to that, from 1999 to 2003, at Deutsche Bank, where the founders of Stelac Advisory Services worked before founding the company. Gabriel Garcia shall carry out his duties from New York headquarters.

Carlos Machado joined the Stelac team this month as Director, Relationship Manager, and Head of the Stelac office in Miami, which opened this August. Machado has worked for just under four years in BigSur Partners, a multi family office based in Miami, where he carried out advisory work. He previously worked at Standard Chartered during the years 2010 and 2011, although the bulk of his career, from 2003-2010, was carried out in various areas of Deutsche Bank in the Americas region and in Switzerland.

Nacho Contreras, holder of an MBA from IESE and a PHD in Economics and Human Resources, and an expert in corporate finance and consulting, has joined the Stelac team as Head of the Human Resources division and to lead relationships with endowments and foundations.

Carlos Padula, Managing Partner of Stelac, was Managing Director and CEO of PWM Latin America at Deutsche Bank until 2007, the year in which he founded Stelac Advisory Services together with Maria Zita La Rosa and Karla Cervoni, who also worked at Deutsche Bank with UHNW Latin American clients.

According to information filed with the SEC, Stelac Advisory Services has US$1.5 billion in assets under management and advisory, belonging primarily to UHNW clients from international families.

European Equities: A Return To Normality? What Is The New Normal?

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La renta variable europea vuelve a la normalidad pero, ¿qué es lo normal?
Photo: Santi Villamarín. European Equities: A Return To Normality? What Is The New Normal?

Any attempt to gauge where European markets are in terms of ‘normality’ is fraught with dangers. Inevitably, and rightly, everyone has a different understanding of what is ‘normal’.

My working premise for some years has been that Europe is a low growth area. When the Henderson Horizon Pan European Equity Fund was launched in November 2001, we said investment opportunities would come from how governments, companies, individuals, and investment styles change rather than because of ‘growth’ per se. One of the reasons for that stance was years of frustrating meetings with asset allocators who would quickly write off Europe in preference for higher growth in emerging markets or Asia, while ignoring what consumers in those markets aspired to or were already buying.

Low for longer

Growth in Europe is now finally picking up. Yet because growth in the UK and US started recovering quite a lot earlier, those markets are looking for an opportunity to return interest rates to a more ‘normal’ level. This may well happen within the next 6 to 12 months, and that fact should not be spooking the market as much as it currently is. It is a ‘good’ thing; but to expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to follow suit straight afterwards is utterly wrong. European economic growth is better, but still weak. There is very little pricing power and inflation is still way below the ECB target of 2%. While core inflation* has now accelerated to 1.0% (see chart), it is likely to remain below target for some time given oil and raw material price developments.

Brave new world

The crux of the issue is that the ‘new normal’ might just be a world of low growth. Now that China is increasingly recognised as growing at a slower pace, and emerging markets are suffering due to weaker currencies and lower demand worldwide, there is no region where higher growth can compensate for lower growth in other regions of the world. This goes some way to explaining the sustained popularity of higher-rated growth stocks, although given the premium investors have placed on such stocks, it only takes a relatively small earnings shock to see these share prices fall considerably.

In a world of close to no growth, ‘only’ 10% revenue growth can be perceived as ‘high’ growth. There is nothing ‘normal’ about that! Against this reshaped backdrop, our approach remains focussed on investing in quality, reliable, cash-generative businesses that should perform well through a range of economic cycles.

Tim Stevenson is Director of European Equities as Henderson and has over 30 years’ investment experience.