“Time Is One of The Few Remaining Market Inefficiencies”

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“El tiempo es una de las pocas ineficiencias que quedan en el mercado”
Foto: Historias Visuales, Flickr, Creative Commons. El crecimiento mundial será anémico en 2016 y 2017 pese al petróleo barato, los tipos bajos y el menor lastre emergente

Mark E. DeVaul, portfolio manager of North America Value Fund and a member of the Nordea’s investment team (through the firm The London Company), explains in this interview with Funds Society how to be a good value investor in these high volatile markets. Recent additions to the portfolio have come from multiple sectors including Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Consumer Staples.

US equities have experienced a strong rally in recent years. Investing with a value perspective requires discounts to be found. Is this possible in a more expensive stock market scenario? 

US stocks have been strong since the bottom of the market back in March of 2009. Valuations have improved and the US economy is in much better condition compared to the depths of the great recession. It is more difficult to find great investing ideas today vs. 5-6 years ago, but we are still finding them. We attempt to purchase strong companies when they are trading at a roughly 30-40% discount to our estimate of intrinsic value. We calculate intrinsic value using a process we call Balance Sheet Optimization. Our goal is to build the investment thesis for each holding around the strength of the company’s balance sheet and not rely on future growth.

What return potential are you currently detecting for your portfolios, taking into account market prices? Has the safety margin tightened compared with before? 

We don’t have a specific return goal each year.  Our goal is to outperform the broader market over full market cycles (5-6 years) while maintaining more attractive risk characteristics (better downside capture, lower beta, lower standard deviation). Yes, the discount to intrinsic value is lower today vs. a few years ago. 

Value management is characterised by patience and long-term convictions… Do you believe it is possible to maintain a buy&hold management approach in view of the current high volatility? 

We believe it is an advantage to follow a buy and hold approach. Many investors have a very short time horizon. We think time is one of the few remaining market inefficiencies. We look at each company as if we were going to buy the whole firm. Our average holding period is five years. We build diversified portfolios of 30-35 holdings. Each holding is meaningful and can drive value to shareholders over a multi-year holding period.

In this regard, have you made any changes to your management approach as a consequence of the market volatility in recent years? 

No, we have not made any changes to our investment approach because of recent volatility. 

As regards sectors or companies in which you are currently detecting value, which sectors are you concentrating on?

We build our portfolios following a bottom up approach and pay little attention to sector weights. Our goal is to have a strong margin of safety in each holding. Recent additions to the portfolio have come from multiple sectors including Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Consumer Staples.

What impact could the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates have on your portfolios? Could the volatility that has been created be useful in any way?

The Fed’s timing of interest rate increases will not have much of an impact on our portfolio. We are aware of the risk and on the margin have stayed away from some of the sectors that investors may view more like bonds because of the high dividend yields (REITs, Telecom, Utilities). If rates begin to move higher, we take that into consideration as part of our balance sheet optimization approach in determining intrinsic value. 

To what extent do you take into account macro considerations when it comes to making your investment decisions? 

Our process is 100% bottom up so there is limited impact from macro considerations. That said, we are aware of what is going on at the macro level and try to avoid major headwinds when possible. 

I imagine that you invest bearing in mind the fundamentals of the company. Do you think the exposure of US companies to China and other EMs will impact their fundamentals?

Exposure to China and other EMs may have some impact. In our large cap portfolio, roughly 30% of sales from the companies in the portfolio are generated outside the US. So we recognize there is some impact.  However, the impact is fairly limited as we attempt to buy companies with very little growth expectations priced into the shares.

A Global Macro Perspective 2016 For Family Offices & Funds

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Perspectivas macro 2016 para family offices y fondos
Wikimedia Commons. A Global Macro Perspective 2016 For Family Offices & Funds

Florida Alternative Investmet Association will hold, on Tuesday December 1st, a pannel, under the title “A Global Macro Perspective 2016 For Family Offices & Funds”.

Shannon Morton, BlackRock’s Investment Institute; Peter Halloran, Titanium Exploration Partners; Luis Laboy, RWC Partners; Ted Izatt, SDKA International and Daryl Jones,  Hedgeye Risk Management will be the pannelists who share with the audience their insights.

The event will take place at Akerman´s -1 SE 3rd Ave, Suite 28- from 5 to 8 pm.

For additional information and registration you may use this link.

Who are the 15 most Relevant Latin American and US Offshore Private Banking Industry Professionals?

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¿Quiénes son los 15 profesionales más relevantes de la industria de banca privada en América Latina y US Offshore?
Photo: Google . Who are the 15 most Relevant Latin American and US Offshore Private Banking Industry Professionals?

Terrapinn, in collaboration with Wealth Management Americas, has published a list of the 15 most influential industry professionals from private banking and wealth management in Latin America and US Offshore. Voters have valued excellence in customer service, in addition to wealth planning and preservation, and portfolio management. The ranking this year includes professionals from 14 private banks and four different countries; eight are located in Brazil; five based in the United States, with one professional in Mexico and another one in Switzerland.

Beatriz Sanchez, of Goldman Sachs, United States, was the highest ranked with 252 votes, closely followed by Emerson Pieri, of Barings Investments, Brazil, with 247, and Diego Pivoz, of HSBC USA, with 235. The Spaniard, Conchita Calderon of JP Morgan, Mexico, and Ernesto de La Fe, of Jeffries, United States, rounded out the top 5 with 211 and 198 votes respectively.

Between the fifth and tenth positions, are two industry professionals based in the United States, and three in Brazil: Gabriel Porzecanski, of HSBC, USA; Adriana Pineiro, of Morgan Stanley, USA; Renato Cohn, of BTG Pactual Brazil; Joao Albino Winkelmann, of Bradesco, Brazil; and Francisco J. Levy of UBS, Wealth Management Brazil.

Four other professionals based in Brazil, and the only one located in Switzerland to obtain a position in the ranking of the 15 most influential professionals, appear between the tenth and fifteenth positions: Charles Ferraz, of Itau Unibanco, Brazil; Guilhermo Morales, of Audi Bank, Switzerland; Raphael Guinle, of BTG Pactual, Brazil; Felipe Godard, of Deutsche Bank, Brazil; and Renato Roizenblit, of SLW Brazil.

The Wealth Management Americas 2015 forum, organized by Terrapinn, took place this week, with the participation of two of the professionals ranked in the top 5: Diego Pivoz, of HSBC, who shared his view on deregulation and transparency, and Ernesto de la Fe, of Jeffries, who talked about client relationship management, and how the private banking industry needs to adapt to the increasingly global presence of its clients.

The A’s that Acccording to Henderson, Move the Tech World

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Las A’s que mueven el mundo tecnológico según Henderson
Photo by Christopher Bowns . The A's that Acccording to Henderson, Move the Tech World

According to Alison Porter, portfolio manager with Henderson’s Global Technology Team, Apple, Alphabet (previously Google) and Amazon are three three key holdings “in a ‘winner takes most’ world.”

Following the release of the companies’ latest quarterly earnings results, Porter states that after the first quarter for Google as Alphabet, the company offers exposure to a number of powerful internet themes, including online video, programmatic advertising, paperless payments, mobile internet and several ‘other bets’ that could drive significant value in the future, including Nest (smart home appliances), its leading position in self-driving cars, Calico (life sciences) and Google Ventures (venture capital arm, which includes stakes in companies such as Uber). “In our view, the strength of Google’s position in mobile is underappreciated… We think investors will place a value on the company’s other ventures despite them currently being loss makers, and also award the core Google business a higher valuation.”

In regards to Apple, one of their main holdings, Henderson considers that the company “is currently valued as a ‘one product cyclical company’, which we believe undervalues the Apple eco-system.” Henderson expects sales growth of the iPhone 6 to slow from 28% in 2015 to around 6% in 2016. Nevertheless, they trust Apple will be able to take advantage of new markets.

When it comes to Amazon, better tan expected revenue and operating profit guidance consolidate Amazon’s dominance in its core businesses of ecommerce and cloud services − which are both large and rapidly growing markets where Amazon still has low market share. Henderson highlights Amazon Prime as an área of opportunity along with Amazon Web Services (AWS) is taking market share from traditional hardware companies such as IBM and EMC but now also increasingly from software companies such as Oracle.

Technology tends to be a sector where the winner takes most market share and companies with the strongest barriers to entry such as Apple, Alphabet and Amazon are the most likely to benefit. The team is confident these three companies are well positioned in a low growth environment to grow profitably and reward investors.concludes Porter.

You can read the full report in the following link.

General Colin Powell, Monica Lewinsky, Tony Hawk, and Marc Randolph to participate in eMerge Americas

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eMerge Americas traerá al general Colin Powell, Monica Lewinsky,  Tony Hawk y Marc Randolph a Miami
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Mr. Usaji . General Colin Powell, Monica Lewinsky, Tony Hawk, and Marc Randolph to participate in eMerge Americas

eMerge Americas third annual conference will take place on April 18 and 19, 2016, and will bring General Colin L. Powell, Former Secretary of State, United States; Monica Lewinsky, Activist & Writer; Tony Hawk, Legendary Skateboarder & Entrepreneur; Founder, The Tony Hawk Foundation; Tim Storey, World-Renowned Motivational Speaker; and Marc Randolph, Co-founder, Netflix; to Miami to share their inspiring stories.

Registration has just opened for the global event, which serves as a platform for the advancement of technology and idea exchange, and Launchpad for innovation connecting Latin America, North America and Europe

Following a second year of growth, the event will bring together disruptive thinkers from an array of industries under one roof. Other than the already mentioned: Scott Wise, Partner, Andreessen Horowitz; Susan Lyne, President & Founder, BBG Ventures; Naveen Jain, Co-Founder & Executive Chairman, Moon Express; Gabriel Sanchez Zinny, Coordinating Founder & Partner, Blue Star Strategies; Miriam Lopez, President & Chief Lending Officer, Marquis Bank; Andrés Freire, Co-Founder, Officenet; Doug Dietz, Innovation Architect, GE Healthcare; Michael Samway, Adjunct Professor, Master of Science in Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Denelle Dixon-Thayer, Chief Legal and Business Officer, Mozilla; Nuala O’Connor, President & CEO, Center for Democracy & Technology; Alessandro Prest, Co-Founder & CTO, LogoGrab;Joan Cwaik, Latin America Marketing & Communication Manager, Maytronics; Will Perego, Founder & CEO, 24-hour Solar Roof; Ernesto Rodriguez Leal, Associate Professor in Robotics; CEO, Tecnologico de Monterrey; WeaRobot; Patricia Smith, Strategic Information Technology Consultant and Fran Allegra, President, the SEED School of Miami.

“The global tech community is growing fast, and our own rapid growth is testament to that. As the community continues to evolve, eMerge Americas will too, working to inspire and address the needs of this innovative community,” added Manuel D. Medina, founder of eMerge Americas.

For more information or to register for eMerge Americas 2016, follow this link

Andrew Feltus, Pioneer Investments: The Fed Wants to Increase Rates, but is Afraid to Kill the Cycle

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Feltus, de Pioneer Investments: La Fed quiere subir tipos, pero no quiere matar el ciclo
Andrew Feltus, Director of High Yield and Bank Loans, is Portfolio Manager of Pioneer Funds – Global High Yield, Pioneer Funds - U.S. High Yield, and Pioneer Funds – Strategic Income. Courtesy Photo. Andrew Feltus, Pioneer Investments: The Fed Wants to Increase Rates, but is Afraid to Kill the Cycle

Despite having very limited public spending, the United States is the fastest growing developed economy. What has changed during the past year in the U.S. economy? Andrew Feltus, Director of High Yield and Bank Loans, is Portfolio Manager of Pioneer Funds – Global High Yield, Pioneer Funds – U.S. High Yield, and Pioneer Funds – Strategic Income. With extensive experience managing a wide range of debt securities globally, including emerging markets and foreign exchange, Feltus narrows in his focus to review the situation for the U.S. credit markets at the Investment Seminar “Embrace New Sources of Return” which was recently held in Miami by the fund management company.

“In the past year, the fall in energy prices has led to a change in consumer behavior. The ordinary citizen has used the money from gas savings to pay down their debts and increase their savings” says Feltus. Right now, the U.S. consumer has much more flexibility and a bigger cushion than in 2008. “Banks are also much more robust.”

On the other hand, employment and wage inflation are doing relatively well, positively influencing consumption and services, “which make up the bulk of the U.S. economy.”

Energy and Liquidity the Black-Spots of the Credit Market

The companies which have suffered are almost exclusively in the energy sector. “In this industry, there are defaults, job losses, and reduced earnings per share. This doesn’t only affect the companies directly related to the energy industry, but all of those which service it indirectly, especially those related to shale gas.” The plight of this sector has infected the whole high yield credit market in the U.S., which with its 600 bp spreads are discounting a default rate of 7.5%, when in fact the default rate is at 2.5% (ex-energy data, end of September).

“This really seems too much,” says Feltus. Although he also adds that, until it is clear where the oil price points to, they are not looking to increase their exposure to the energy sector, because “the valuation is very attractive, but the fundamentals are very uncertain.”

An additional problem, which affects the whole credit market, is liquidity. “Liquidity is trash these days,” points out Feltus. “The lack of liquidity is what is causing credit spreads outside the energy sector, but if the problem is solved, there is now an opportunity to enter.”

Is this Enough to Curb the Fed?

Feltus explains how, historically, the worst time for the credit markets is from 3 to 6 months before the Fed begins to raise rates, “but the trouble this time is that we have been postponing the expectations of the first rate rise for almost a year. The Fed wants to raise interest rates, but does not want to kill the cycle, which is pretty nice.” Feltus, like many other voices in the industry, believes that probably at this point the market would react well to the first hike as long as the message continues to be one of gentle rises.

He also points out that the QE program ended a year ago, and the Fed’s balance sheet has been contracting since, “so, on that side, there has been some ‘tightening’ of monetary policy.” Meanwhile, general inflation is under control, but it is true that as you break down the index, energy prices have a big effect. In fact, inflation in the service sector is slightly above 2% -the Fed’s target-. In any case, “the reality is that rarely in the Fed’s history -only twice- it has raised rates with the GDP growing below 4%, which is the current situation.”

Barbell Strategy to Extend Duration

Due to the economic slowdown seen outside of the United States, and inflation expectations falling to lows since 2008, the Strategic Income Fund team has decided to be less short in duration than previously, but through the purchase of TIPS –long-term bonds linked to inflation-, which should benefit from a normalization in inflation expectations. “There is no value in buying Treasuries right now, unless you’re considering a scenario of recession, something we do not see at this time,” says Feltus.

An effect that is repeated in the history of the Fed’s upward cycles is the flattening of the curve, with a much greater effect on the shorter half of the curve. Faced with these prospects, the team is using a Barbell strategy in the portfolio, with very short-term bonds on one side, and TIPS on the other, to lengthen the portfolio’s duration and neutralize this effect.

Finally, Feltus declares himself to be a great fan of the dollar. “We have less exposure to currencies other than the dollar than what we have had in our history.”

UBS (Italia) S.p.A. to Acquire a Business Concern from Santander Private Banking Italia, which Includes €2.7bn AUM

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Santander vende a UBS su negocio de banca privada en Italia
Photo: Ana Patricia Botín.. UBS (Italia) S.p.A. to Acquire a Business Concern from Santander Private Banking Italia, which Includes €2.7bn AUM

UBS Group AG announced today that its Italian Wealth Management entity UBS (Italia) S.p.A. has entered into an agreement to acquire a business concern from Santander Private Banking S.p.A. (SPB Italia), which includes €2.7bn assets under management, all of its private bankers and branch support staff. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2016, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions.

Based in Milan, SPB Italia provides financial advice and investment solutions to high net worth individuals and family groups. In addition to its wealth management services, SPB Italia’s offering includes banking products and services, loan products, and mortgages. As of 30 September 2015, SPB Italia operates through 6 branch offices located in Milan, Varese, Brescia, Roma Napoli and Salerno.

SPB Italia’s business will be integrated into UBS Italia and will enhance UBS Wealth Management’s presence in the country.

“SPB Italia has a distinguished positioning in our country as a provider of world-class Private Banking services. This transaction is a natural fit with our current wealth management offering in Italy in terms of both business and culture,” said Fabio Innocenzi, CEO UBS Italia. “It also represents a perfect opportunity to grow UBS’s business and to further expand our market share in Italy. SPB Italia’s clients and Private Bankers will gain access to one of the world’s leading wealth management platforms with an excellent reputation in the marketplace. UBS’s clients will benefit from a wider range of banking products and financial solutions.”

UBS is one of the largest wealth managers in the world, giving access to a global banking platform while providing excellent local advice. UBS offers a global scale, world-class investment capabilities and a compelling value proposition for its clients.

UBS (Italia) S.p.A. is an Italian registered bank, subsidiary of UBS AG, running wealth management activities for private investors in Italy. UBS (Italia) S.p.A. is the parent company of Gruppo UBS Italia, comprising also UBS Fiduciaria S.p.A, operating in the country since 1996 and employing about 480 staff serving from nine branches located in Bologna, Brescia, Florence, Milan, Modena, Padua, Rome, Treviso and Turin. UBS (Italia) S.p.A. is ranked 6th and has a market share of 4% in the Italian Wealth Management market (source: Magstat).

Solidarité

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Solidarité
Photo By fdecomite. Solidarité

Funds Society joins the world showing its support for France after the terrorist attacks suffered in Paris on November 13th. Our thoughts are with the French people, and specially with the families and friends of the victims of the attacks.

“From a Fixed Income Investor’s Perspective There Are Opportunities in The Energy, Power Utilities and Railways Sectors in India”

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Kenneth Akintewe is a portfolio manager on the fixed income Asia Pacific team at Aberdeen, responsible for the local currency interest rate strategy. The team is one of the largest dedicated Asian fixed income teams, managing approximately US$4.5 billion in assets. The team of 27 professionals, who are based throughout the region, has been managing Asian fixed income portfolios since 1997 and first got a Foreign Institutional Investor licence specifically for the Indian bond market in 2007. In this interview Akintewe goes over the progress on reforms in India.

Are you happy with the pace of reform in India?

We would like to see reforms move forward as quickly as possible – new land acquisition legislation is crucial – but we’re also aware of the magnitude of the task that faces Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team. While there have been setbacks (such as a defeat in local elections earlier this year) we’re encouraged by progress that’s best described as “slow and steady.” Sure, some of the more ambitious reform legislation hasn’t been approved yet, but since Modi became premier last year, some 47 bills have been passed into law by Parliament and the administration’s commitment to reform remains unshaken. Not all of those bills would have been linked to the reform agenda, but this statistic shows that things are getting done despite political opposition in the upper house of Parliament. Beyond the headlines, quiet progress has been made on the devolution of economic power to state governments and on improving policy coordination between the capital and the regions. That’s in addition to measures to boost government efficiency and streamlining the approval process for infrastructure projects.

Can we see the benefits of reform in the economy?

The economy is in much better shape than it was even a couple of years ago – inflation is down, as are interest rates, and fiscal consolidation remains on track. Foreign exchange reserves of more than US$350 billion are at record levels and the rupee has seen better performance versus the majority of G104 and emerging market currencies. While the country has been a key beneficiary of the windfall gains from cheaper oil, policymakers have also taken the initiative to reduce fuel subsidies (subsidies for diesel and petrol were abolished, although those for liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene remain). The number of stalled investment projects has been declining as the government continues to try and clear the backlog that built up, while the value of new projects has been increasing. Foreign direct investment has also been on the rise. There are, of course, good reasons for caution. For example, corporate earnings have disappointed and many companies aren’t yet confident enough to invest in their businesses.

Why is infrastructure so important?

Decades of under-investment means India has appalling infrastructure. This is a major obstacle to the nation’s growth ambitions, especially if the country wants to become a manufacturing hub like China. Even a casual visitor will quickly realize that there is a desperate need for more of everything – better roads, modern railways, efficient ports. Power outages are a regular feature of daily life. Therefore, some of the most ambitious elements of the reform agenda are linked to infrastructure development. However, making this happen will mean changes to the law that have run into political opposition. From a fixed income investor’s perspective we think there are opportunities in the energy, power utilities/transmission and railways sectors. To start with, public spending will do the heavy lifting as private sector investment remains weak. If the government can harness the savings from lower oil prices (plus scale back fuel subsidies) and invest that money into public works, this could spur more investment from the corporate world.

Isn’t red tape still a problem?

Excessive, incompetent and/or corrupt bureaucracy is notorious in India. But this government is well aware of this and has been quick to address the problem. For example, Modi quickly clamped down on chronic absenteeism in the civil service and ordered the country’s so-called “babus”5 to tackle the backlog of work that was gathering dust in many government offices. There have been other administrative measures to improve government efficiency.

Why do local currency bonds look attractive?

In an unprecedented move, the Reserve Bank of India has started to target inflation as a key component of monetary policy. If reforms are successful, this could lead to a structural decline in inflation over the long term, which will likely drive down local currency bond yields. We believe Indian bonds pay an attractive yield even as the country’s economic prospects improve. Credit rating agency Moody’s Investors Service revised India’s sovereign outlook to “positive” from “stable” in April. Despite a year-long rally, 10-year sovereign bonds yield around 7.7%, while corporate bonds can yield some 60 to 140 basis points (bps) more than the government benchmark. Another attraction is the low degree of correlation with other bond markets. That’s because quotas and other market restrictions mean foreign participation is minimal and therefore this market is largely insulated from changes in foreign investor sentiment. The rupee, a currency that we think is undervalued, should continue to exhibit better stability and deliver better performance than a large number of other global and emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, central bank governor Raghuram Rajan has plenty of room to cut interest rates once there is greater clarity on issues such as the timing and impact of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate normalization, the direction of global commodity prices and the monsoon rains in India.

What are the key risks for investors?

Investor sentiment may be damaged if the reform program loses momentum in the face of stubborn political opposition, while lingering uncertainties over the tax liabilities of foreign investors are also unhelpful. After years of unproductive investment, state-owned banks and other companies have limited capacity to support Modi’s reforms. Inflation (which is largely driven by factors outside the control of Indian policymakers) could bounce back, particularly if there are unfavorable monsoon conditions that negatively impact agriculture. Meanwhile, investors need to be more careful when selecting so-called “quasi-sovereign” government-linked credits. A rush to find proxies for sovereign debt means some investors may have overlooked important differences in government-ownership levels and/or company fundamentals.

Fund Society’s “Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015” Event, Nominated for “Launch of the Year” at the PPA Connect Awards

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El evento "Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015" organizado por Funds Society, nominado al mejor lanzamiento del año por PPA Connect Awards
. Fund Society's "Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015" Event, Nominated for “Launch of the Year” at the PPA Connect Awards

PPA Connect Awards has shortlisted the Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015, held at the Ritz Carlton hotel in Key Biscayne and organized by Funds Society in collaboration with Open Door Media, for the “launch of the year” award The presentation of the awards to the winning finalists will take place on December 7th in London, where the community of professional events’ organizers granting the awards, have their headquarters.

Funds Society’s Fund Selector Summit was the first event organized jointly by Funds Society, an online reference publication for the US Offshore market’s professional investors and Spanish language magazine distributed quarterly in the United States, and Open Door Media, publisher of a magazine for professional investors in the UK and an experienced organizer of events for financial professionals, in several European countries.

The union of the two parties has shown itself to be a perfect tandem as 11 international fund management companies sponsored an event which was attended by more than 50 fund selectors in May 2015. Throughout the two days, meetings were held between small groups of buyside professionals and a fund manager from each of the sponsoring institutions. There was time for presentations, questions, coffees, talks, exchanging business cards, cookouts in the hotel grounds, and to enjoy an excellent presentation by Javier Santiso.

 The celebration of Funds Society’s Fund Selector Summit 2016 has been announced for the 28th and 29th of April at the same venue, and organizers hope to repeat last year’s success.

Thanks to all the sponsors who supported the event for making this possible: Amundi, Carmignac, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Henderson Global Investors, NN Investment Partners, Lord Abbett, M & G Investments, Matthews Asia, Old Mutual Global Investors, Schroders and Robeco.

Photos of the first day of last year’s event are available through this link and those of the second day through this other link.