CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Guilhem Vellut
. Introducing Colony NorthStar, Equity REIT With $58 Billion of Assets Under Management
NorthStar Asset Management Group, Colony Capital, and NorthStar Realty Finance have announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which the companies will combine in an all-stock merger of equals transaction to create a real estate and investment management platform.
The combined company will be named “Colony NorthStar, Inc.” The transaction is expected to close during the first quarter of 2017, subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals, and approval by the NSAM, Colony and NRF shareholders.
Upon completion of the transaction, NSAM shareholders will own approximately 32.85%, Colony shareholders will own approximately 33.25% and NRF shareholders will own approximately 33.90% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis. NSAM shareholders will also receive, in addition to its regular quarterly dividend, a special cash dividend equal to $128 million, which represents a one-time distribution of excess NSAM taxable earnings and profits.
Upon closing of the transaction, Thomas J. Barrack Jr. will be Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors of Colony NorthStar, David Hamamoto will be Executive Vice Chairman, and Richard B. Saltzman will be Chief Executive Officer.
The transaction creates a global, diversified equity REIT with $58 billion of assets under management, led by a seasoned management team with access to proprietary deal sourcing and a significant track record as a global investor, operator and asset manager.
The portfolio has a concentration in scaled verticals across geographies, property types and capital stack positions, consisting primarily of owned real estate.
The companies have estimated an approximately $115 million in total annual cost synergies, consisting of approximately $80 million of cash savings and approximately $35 million of stock based compensation savings, expected to be realized post-closing.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Barbara Willi
. Hong Kong and Switzerland Ahead of the United States in the Competitiveness Ranking
The USA has surrendered its status as the world’s most competitive economy, which it has led for the past three years, after being overtaken byChina Hong Kong and Switzerland, according to the IMD World Competitiveness Center Ranking.
The 2016 edition ranks China Hong Kong first, Switzerland second and the USA third, with Singapore, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Canada completing the top 10.
Professor Arturo Bris, Director of the IMD World Competitiveness Center, said a consistent commitment to a favorable business environment was central to China Hong Kong’s rise and that Switzerland’s small size and its emphasis on a commitment to quality have allowed it to react quickly to keep its economy on top.
“The USA still boasts the best economic performance in the world, but there are many other factors that we take into account when assessing competitiveness,” he said.
“The common pattern among all of the countries in the top 20 is their focus on business-friendly regulation, physical and intangible infrastructure and inclusive institutions.”
A leading banking and financial center, China Hong Kong encourages innovation through low and simple taxation and imposes no restrictions on capital flows into or out of the territory.It also offers a gateway for foreign direct investment in China Mainland, the world’s newest economic superpower, and enables businesses there to access global capital markets.Taiwan, Malaysia, Korea Republic, and Indonesia have all suffered significant falls from their 2015 positions, while China Mainland declined only narrowly retaining its place in the top 25.
The study reveals some of the most impressive strides in Europe have been made by countries in the East, chief among them Latvia, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Western European economies have also continued to improve, with researchers highlighting the ongoing post-financial-crisis recovery of the public sector as a key driver.
Meanwhile, 36th-placed Chile is the sole Latin American nation outside the bottom 20, while Argentina, in 55th, is the only country in the region to have improved on its 2015 position.
“One important fact that the ranking makes clear year after year is that current economic growth is by no means a guarantee of future competitiveness.” Added Professor Bris.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Gilhem Vellut. Brexit: Implications for Asia Stock Markets
The recent announcement afirming the U.K.’s vote to exit the European Union has many ramifications—many of which affect millions of people in a negative way. Some refer to Friday’s announcement as a Black Swan event. Regardless of how the event is characterized, the fact is that the exact implications are largely unknown, the potential for a domino effect is real, governments and companies will need to re-think strategy and individuals will be impacted. Hopefully we will have more clarity in the days ahead, but it is always dificult to predict macro influences or investor sentiment. What is more apparent to us is that good businesses exist regardless of macro movements.
Reactions since Announcement
The FTSE 100, a cap-weighted index traded on the London Stock Exchange, has suffered signi cantly— down 15.79% in USD terms in two trading days since the announcement.
Initially, Japan certainly was Asia’s worst performing stock market with the Nikkei down the day after the announcement, almost 8% in local terms and 4.8% in USD terms. Japan was affected by worries that a stronger yen would negatively impact future earnings, especially for global exporters. The Japanese yen hit 100 vs. the U.S. dollar early in the trading session which sparked a stronger-than-anticipated equity reaction. The Nikkei recovered slightly overnight bringing its two day loss in USD terms to -2.10%.
The worst performing equity sectors within Asia ex Japan were energy, industrials and materials while the best performing sectors were consumer staples, health care and utilities. Asian currencies generally outperformed the Euro and GBP with export/commodity related currencies performing worst (Korean won, Australian dollar, and Malaysian ringgit). Interestingly, local Chinese shares, represented by the Shanghai Composite performed relatively well, down less than 1% in USD terms since the Brexit announcement.
Matthews Asia Investment Team Thoughts
A combination of an unexpected result not priced into markets and a likely prolonged period of uncertainty were the main negative drivers of markets across all asset classes. Risk-off sentiment could continue in the short term and because Brexit negotiations are expected to extend for many months, a period of ongoing uncertainty will keep markets unsettled for quite some time. That said, we also expect that global central bank coordination is ready to add stimulus as needed which should add liquidity— potentially mitigating market volatility.
In an already slow growth environment, added uncertainty will not help Europe’s fragile recovery. Prolonged uncertainty will cause a slow-down in investment, capex and European growth which in turn will increase the length of the current credit cycle, spur further central bank stimulus and liquidity, and ultimately drag out the “low growth for longer” thesis. In this scenario, we envision that cyclical sectors—especially those exposed to the EU—are most at risk. Winners could include defensive sectors and those that focus on domestic demand. Within Asia, we see both potential winners and losers if the turmoil in Europe continues to unfold.
Portfolio Implications
We believe successful investing in Asia includes an increased focus on domestic demand and regional growth— nding businesses that are less dependent on global growth and more dependent on regional growth of middle class consumers. And although growth may be increasingly dificult to find in Europe, our conviction for the long-term growth of Asia remains intact. We believe the ability to capture that growth—through domestic demand oriented businesses, attempting to mitigate macro influences wherever possible—have never been more important. While we don’t yet know what the long-term ramifications are for Europe and the U.K., we can be a little more certain about the future for Asia’s economy and its growing contribution to global growth.
David Dali is Client Portfolio Strategist at Matthews Asia.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Giuseppe Milo. Eaton Vance Launches a Multi-Asset Credit Fund
Eaton Vance Management Limited. (EVMI), a subsidiary of Eaton Vance Management, today announced the launch of Eaton Vance (Ireland) Multi-Asset Credit Fund, a sub-fund of Eaton Vance Institutional Funds Plc, which is available to investors in the UK and Ireland, with forthcoming registration in other jurisdictions.
In an uncertain market for traditional core fixed income asset class returns, this strategy seeks to provide investors with broad exposure to the global sub- investment grade credit markets, principally through higher yielding credit assets including global high yield bonds and floating-rate loans. Up to 40% of the fund’s assets may be allocated to opportunistic and risk-reducing fixed income asset classes. The strategy will also be available to investors as a customisable segregated mandate.
The Fund’s co-portfolio managers are Jeffrey Mueller, Vice President, Justin Bourgette, CFA, Vice President, and John Redding, Vice President. The Fund will be managed in a way that draws on Eaton Vance’s breadth of investment expertise and capabilities, based on the ‘intelligent integration’ of top-down and bottom-up inputs to optimise portfolio construction.
Payson Swaffield, Chief Income Investment Officer of Eaton Vance Management, commented: “Eaton Vance is an experienced manager of investments across the global credit spectrum. Bringing our multi-asset Credit capability to investors in a QIAIF structure is a natural evolution of our market leadership position in leveraged credit. I am confident that the combination of Jeff, Justin and John will allow us to provide an attractive strategy for investors seeking higher yields and strong, sustainable returns.”
The Fund is a regulated, Irish domiciled qualifying investor alternative investment fund (“QIAIF”) and complies with the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (“AIFMD”).
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: D Chris. Careful With The Brexit: Not To Confuse The Local Economy And Politics With Markets
The United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union has begun to reverberate around the world.
Prime Minister Cameron has announced he will resign in October, around the time of the next Conservative Party annual conference. Only after a new prime minister is in place will the UK trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and start the two-year process of negotiating its exit from the E U.
From a credit perspective, the ratings agencies have made it known that the UK’s sovereign credit rating will be downgraded as a result of the decision to leave the European Union. Standard and Poor’s called the AAA credit rating ‘no longer tenable under the circumstances’. Moody’s called Brexit a credit negative for the UK and for other issuers in the country, citing a prolonged period of policy uncertainty that will likely dent investment flows and confidence. On an absolute basis, UK gilt yields may fall in the near term, but spreads could widen.
Central banks have made it clear that they stand ready to provide liquidity to financial institutions — and in some cases intervene in currency markets — amid volatile market conditions. Expect central banks to work together to suppress volatility. A rate cut by the Bank of England in July is increasingly likely, while the US Federal Reserve, as a result of the vote, is unlikely to hike short-term rates for the balance of the year.
Currency markets have borne the brunt of today’s volatility, with the pound falling by a record 11% against the dollar in the wake of the vote before stabilizing. Equity markets were hit hard at the open of trading on 24 June, with the FTSE 100 Index falling nearly 9%, but those losses moderated significantly as the session wore on. The moves have been relatively sensible, with the sectors most at risk in the short term — financial services and cyclicals — bearing the brunt of the pressure thus far. Ten-year UK gilts fell to a record 1% before stabilizing near 1.10% toward Friday’s close, while the 10-year US Treasury note tested record low yields, near 1.40%, this morning before rebounding to 1.57%.
This sort of environment can create opportunities for investors. We are long term in our focus, and we’re very careful not to confuse the local economy and politics with markets. We invest in international and global businesses, and stock prices act as a discounting mechanism. Some of the impacts of the Brexit vote may already be reflected in prices. Against this more volatile backdrop, long-term inefficiencies may emerge. There are great businesses that have been hit hard in the short term, and there are others where risks have increased substantially. This is the type of environment where long-term active managers would be expected to add value. After all, volatility should be our friend over the long term.
In fixed income, we continue to look for opportunities where valuations have become dislocated. We’re going through our names and sector exposures, deciding where we want to add or reduce risk. We’re not rushing, as we’re mindful of challenges around liquidity in the near term. We’re largely taking a wait-and-see approach, awaiting improved liquidity. We have already identified specific credits and sectors, so we can move quickly when the environment is conducive to adjusting portfolios appropriately.
Politically, it’s not over
As Michael Gove said during the Brexit campaign, many ‘have had enough of experts’. That sentiment is being felt far beyond the UK’s shores, notably within Europe and the United States. While the Brexit vote has brought a slight bit of clarity to the UK’s future relationship with the EU, it opens the door for a potential domino effect across Europe as populist movements gather strength. Investors wonder which countries will be next in the queue for an EU referendum of their own.
To sum up, it looks as though the UK’s decision to leave the EU could be the beginning of a large, protracted process in which dissatisfaction with the effects of three decades of globalisation is being expressed in ever more impactful ways. It bears watching to see if the trend accelerates, and what lasting impacts, if any, these political forces will have on companies around the world. Geopolitical conditions are ever shifting, but great businesses always seem to find a way to adapt and prosper over time. We suspect they will be able to weather this storm.
Pilar Gomez-Bravo, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, and Ben Kottler, Institutional Equity Portfolio Manager – UK.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Iain Cunningham, Portfolio Manager in its established multi-asset team. Investec Asset Management Appointed Iain Cunningham to its Multi-Asset Team
Investec Asset Management has announced the appointment of Iain Cunningham as a Portfolio Manager in its established multi-asset team. Iain brings an extensive track record dedicated to multi-asset investment, most recently at Schroder Investment Management.
Iain Cunningham will join the firm’s multi-asset investment capability, reporting to Michael Spinks, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth at Investec Asset Management. The range of solutions managed by the 31-strong team includes total return and relative return growth strategies, as well as defensive income.
Michael Spinks, co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth, commented: “We are excited about Iain joining the team given the asset allocation skills and experience that he brings with him. In addition to portfolio management responsibilities, Iain will help to develop Investec’s multi-asset capabilities globally, with a specific focus on our long-standing relative return growth strategies.”
Iain Cunningham joins from Schroder Investment Management where he spent nine years in investment management roles within the multi-manager and multi-asset investment teams – he co-managed the Schroder ISF Global Multi-Asset Income Fund and was co-manager of the Global Multi-Asset Allocation Fund. Additionally, he managed Global Tactical Asset Allocation mandates; was instrumental in developing Schroders’ Multi-Asset Income franchise; and led currency research for the multi-asset team.
“With today’s low growth environment and uncertain economic backdrop, clients are increasingly looking to target investment outcomes based on risk and return”, said Spinks. “Having managed multi-asset portfolios for over 25 years, our core investment capabilities are firmly established, and Iain will play a key role in helping us to continue to seek strong results for our clients.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Ines Hegedus-Garcia
. The Duarte Vasquez Group joins Bolton Global Capital
Bolton Global Capital announced that the Merrill Lynch team of Tanya Duarte and Archibaldo Vasquez has joined the firm’s Miami office. The team manages $225 million in client assets with $2.1 million in annual revenues operating under the name “Duarte Vasquez Group”.
As senior financial advisors with Merrill Lynch for the past 22 years, they have built a broad based international business serving high net worth clients predominantly from Mexico, Colombia, Dominican Republic and the US. Prior to joining Merrill Lynch in 1994, they both worked for 10 years at Chase Private Bank as Team Leaders for various Latin American markets.
“We are honored to have such well respected professionals affiliate with our company and look forward to supporting the continued growth of their wealth management business.” Arturo Vasquez will be responsible for client support operations where he has worked at Morgan Stanley for the past 3 years prior to joining Bolton and with BNP Paribas for 2 years.
With the affiliation of the Duarte Vasquez Group, Bolton continues to establish its position as a premier destination for top wirehouse teams transitioning to the independent business model. Over the past 3 years, the firm’s Miami office has recruited more than a dozen major teams from Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, RBC Wealth Management, Citi Private Bank and HSBC Private Bank. During the 3 quarters ending in June 2016, Bolton has added teams with total AUM of more than $1.3 Billion. The firm has leased additional space at 801 Brickell Avenue to accommodate the growth of its business.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Roman Lashkin
. Why Investors Overreact to Market Corrections?
The short answer for Bernie Scozzafava, Diversified Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, and Dan Codreanu, Senior Diversified Fixed Income Quantitative Analyst at Eaton Vance, is that it’s human nature, irrational though it may be in many cases:
Loss aversion: Behavioral finance tells us that fear trumps greed. In other words, most investors dread losses more than they desire gains.
Recency bias: Recent events trigger hasty decisions, even when such events contradict longer-term trends or investment objectives.
Overreaction bias: Most investors place too much emphasis on negative, sensational news headlines, leading to indiscriminate selling.
Herd behavior: Investors take an “everyone is selling” mentality and follow suit because they fear being the last one to sell.
According to Eaton Vance experts, these all-too human tendencies were exacerbated by the 2008 credit crisis, which left many investors permanently scarred. This debacle, caused by massive losses on subprime loans, sparked the worst market collapse in more than 75 years. Although nearly eight years have passed since then, the carnage still remains fresh in investors’ minds, with many fearing that the next recession and market downturn will be just as bad.
“More often than not, such fears are unfounded. For example, there is growing concern (and press coverage) these days that bank loans to the energy sector could pose a serious threat to the economy and financial system – even though banks generally do not have excessive E&P exposure, are better capitalized and adhere to stricter counterparty risk measures than they did prior to the 2008 crisis”, point out Scozzafava and Codreanu.
Investors with long time horizons are best positioned to tolerate market volatility and earn attractive returns over time, but instead, many behave irrationally and sell during corrections to limit their short-term losses.
“Market volatility and corrections are many investors’ biggest fear. However, we believe a bigger fear should be missing out on the market recoveries that typically follow the corrections. Our research shows that when disciplined, data-driven investing gives way to biased, emotion-driven investing, portfolio performance suffers”, conclude.
Hamish Forsyth, CEO at Capital Group for Europe. . "We Look Forward to A World Where It Is Clear The Investor Is Paying for Advice and It Is Not Being Bundled into Our Investment Management Fee"
The heart of what Capital Group has done for 85 years in the US is mutual fund distribution through financial advisors to individual investors and they want to do that in Europe and Asia as well. Hamish Forsyth, Capital Group’s CEO for Europe, explains in this interview with Funds Society his plans for the continent. Always, with a long-term view and being aware of the regulatory and political challenges: “If Brexit was to materialize, with modifications, the management company in Luxembourg could take on the role currently played by London”, he says. But he believes there are opportunities in Europe and Spain, specially for companies stable and conservative as Capital Group.
How do you assess the development of Capital Group in Europe in the last years?
We have been in Europe since 1962 and we have built, particularly through the 1990’s, a meaningful size institutional business; historically our focus has stayed on the institutional market. Since the financial crisis we have been working hard on a plan to develop a mutual fund distribution business. The heart of what Capital Group has done for 85 years in the US is mutual fund distribution through financial advisors to individual investors and we want to do that in Europe and Asia as well. We are physically present now in support to that mutual fund distribution business in London, Zurich, Geneva, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Milan, Madrid, Hong Kong, Singapore, New York and Miami.
In which markets will Capital Group focus on in 2016 and which are the favorite ones for boosting its business?
This is like with my children, I have no favorite one.
The uncertainty because of elections in Europe and geopolitical risks (Brexit, elections in Spain, rise of populism in Austria): How could it affect to your business development strategy in Europe?
Let´s distinguish between portfolio impact and business planning impact. So, there are lots of things that could affect stock markets, bond prices, and I´m not worried about that so much, I am not a portfolio manager; I leave that to the portfolio managers. For me, as CEO, my focus remains on the factors that could impact our business development strategy. Obviously, Brexit is one of them. We have a strategy throughout the EU that it is based on our UK company and our ability to passport our services from the UK. And if the UK leaves, we presumably will have to find another way of doing that. We have a small management company in Luxembourg today that takes care about our funds (domiciled in Luxembourg) and if Brexit was to materialize, with modifications, that management company could take on the role currently played by London.
Political uncertainty mostly is not affecting our business planning but regulatory uncertainty certainly does. We are in an era of significant regulatory changes and we spend a lot of time thinking about that.
In the case of Spain-Iberia: How are your goals working since the office was opened?
We came to Spain in 2014 to stay. Our goals and measurements of success therefore go beyond AUM and sales objectives. Our initial objective was twofold: firstly, to get to know the local market and distributors needs better and secondly, for us to start introducing CG investment process and capabilities. We trust this approach will help us building a solid, balanced long term business in Spain which is our ultimate goal. 2015 was our first full year in Spain and we feel we have progressed well in our efforts to introduce CG in the local market.
How do you see the positioning of international asset managers in Spain? Are there opportunities?
We had a faster than expected progress last year, which was our first full year with the team in Madrid. Since then, we have also hired a dedicated marketing manager for Spain, so the team has grown. Like everybody this year has been harder; it has been a hard year for mutual fund sales across the board in Europe and our challenge continues to be to find really first class organisations we can do long term business with.
Another important thing to stress, is that now Capital Group is known for the right reasons. We are not only just one of the biggest asset managers in the world. Apart from that, we are very different compared to other big asset managers. In this sense, the feedback we are receiving from clients is very good. We received a very warm welcome from Spanish investors. We trust our investment philosophy and our conservative and long term approach fits well with Spanish investors.
We could say we are a slightly old fashioned, rather conservative asset manager. What we have seen over our 85 years is that people who come to know us well appreciate us greatly. We are not a firm which is necessarily going to dazzle you with star products, a star manager or an outstanding short term investment result because this is not what we are looking for. What we are looking for is long term sustainability of good investment results. This is something that people have to come to learn about us and part of Mario and Álvaro’s jobs in the ground. In this context, and given our way of managing money, it’s important that we present the firm and our investment process before we sell our products.
In the last years, many asset managers have entered Spain; do you think that the Spanish market is crowded now? Where is the market niche for Capital Group?
Yes, we think it´s a crowded market. In the short term, inflows in the Spanish market have attracted a lot of new asset managers chasing short term inflows. Our view is more long term oriented. We think there is a long term opportunity for asset managers in the Spanish market and, in particular, for stable, conservative international asset managers like us.
How many products are currently registered in Spain and which are your latest news? And which products will you bring in the near future?
All of our Luxembourg funds, which are about 20 products now, are registered for distribution in Spain. Spain is an important market for us. We are on the process at the moment of bringing to Europe a number of our long standing American mutual funds. This is the heart of our firm, the family funds called American Funds. In October last year we brought a global equity portfolio, the New Perspective Fund launched in 1964. This month we are bringing our oldest mutual fund, The Investment Company of America, a US equity fund with an 82 year track record which launched in 1934. And later this year we are bringing New World Fund, an all country fund looking to get exposure to emerging markets through multinational companies.
We will continue to bring American funds to Europe and they can be an important manifestation of what we were saying earlier about the long term sustainable nature of what we aim to do.
Are you planning to expand your Iberian team in the mid-short term?
As we mentioned early, we have hired recently a new country marketing manager, Teresa García. One of the goals of our local presence is to provide the best service and support we can to our clients and distributors. That´s what drives the size of the team and currently we are happy with the current size of the team.
Many people argue that the environment will become more complicated for asset managers in the forthcoming future, due to the margin compression, the increase in costs, new regulation, and competition from passive products… Which are in your opinion the most important challenges for the AM industry, especially for Europe, in the next years?
The first thing I would say is that I remain rather positive. Regulatory change has often been very helpful for asset managers, and for us as a firm; and the creation of the single European market for mutual funds, the UCITS directive has given international players like us the ability to distribute one fund cross border in many countries, this is an incredible privilege and one we have taken advantage of.
Regulatory changes have resulted on margin compression and lower fees. As a firm, we believe very strongly in the importance of good advice. We think investors have better financial outcomes when they have worked with a good financial advisor but as I said, in a way, we look forward to a world where it is clear the investor is paying for that advice and it is not being bundled into our investment management fee. A world eventually where it is clear who is doing what for what fee is positive for us as a firm.
The most important challenge for us as an active asset manager has to be results. Linking back with something I´ve said earlier, if fees come down, in the end, it makes it easier for us to do a good job of producing investment results after fees.
Some American and Canadian asset managers are coming to Europe and expanding their product ranges with UCITS products, is this a long-lasting trend? Why?
I think it probably is. If you want to expand as an asset manager and you’re based outside the EU, I think expanding in the EU is always going to be an obvious move because of what we said earlier about the size of the client field, and because of the ability to distribute one set of funds across multiple markets in the EU and beyond. The UCITS magnet as a place for people to start is pretty good. We are not part of the UCITS magnet. We arrived to Europe in 1962 and launched our first fund in Luxembourg in 1969, so our commitment to cross boarder distribution of mutual funds in Europe predates UCITS by a couple of decades. However I think this is an explanation for why so many fund managers are arriving now.
You recently hired a new sales person to cover NRC Markets. How are you positioning yourselves?
Regarding NRC regions, indeed we now have a team of two front line sales people, one based in New York and another based in Miami, covering the main NRC territories in the USA. So, we feel now we are one step closer to the market.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: David Dennis. MSCI Delays Inclusion of China A-Shares in Index
Late on 14 June, MSCI, a provider of global equity indexes, announced that it would delay including China A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. This was the third year running in which MSCI has denied China’s onshore equity markets entry into the index.
MSCI acknowledged that China had made significant progress towards addressing its previously cited concerns: issues regarding beneficial ownership, regulations on trading suspension, and the allocation and capital mobility restrictions for qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) quotas. However, the index provider still believed that the 20% monthly repatriation limit remained a significant hurdle for investors that may be faced with redemptions. The firm also stated that its concerns about local exchanges’ pre-approval restrictions on launching nancial products remained unaddressed.
Both international investors and local regulators have been impatient for the MSCI nod, which would be a signi cant step towards the internationalisation of China’s largely closed capital markets. Despite many being disappointed by this decision, the press release from MSCI is positive. It said that it did “not rule out a potential off-cycle announcement should further significant positive developments occur ahead of June 2017.” We believe that the Chinese authorities will continue to work with MSCI to achieve inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as this is a key area of focus for the government. It is less a case of if A-shares become included, but when.
Ultimately, we believe that China is too big to remain out of MSCI’s flagship emerging markets index, to which an estimated US$1.5 trillion is benchmarked. The People’s Republic has the world’s second largest economy (almost US$11 trillion) and equity market (total market capitalisation of approximately US$7 trillion) and cannot be ignored.
We believe that the A-share market is changing rapidly and has an abundance of investment opportunities, with over 4,000 companies listed. As China rebalances its economy, and services grow faster than heavy industry, the equity market increasingly represents a new consumer-facing Chinese economy. We believe there are manifold opportunities in sectors and services such as food producers, automobiles, appliance manufactures, leisure and gaming companies, pharmaceutical and healthcare. And not forgetting some of the world’s most innovative internet companies.
Although MSCI’s decision is not necessarily the one we were expecting, we continue to build and invest in the 4Factor EquityTM China team of highly capable and talented investment professionals focusing on the domestic A-share market. We have been investing in the country for almost two decades and have experience and expertise to enable us to identify a large number of good-quality companies with good growth at attractive valuations. Now, more than ever, we are sticking with our belief that early moving investors are likely to reap long-term rewards.
Greg Kuhnert is a portfolio manager and financials sector specialist in the 4Factor Global Equity team at Investec Asset Management.
