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The Shadow of ‘Terminator’ and Regulation Creep into the AI Investment Cycle

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a recurring topic of discussion with investment firms. When asked whether we have reached the peak of investment in this theme—from both fixed income and equity perspectives—they insist we have not. They argue that there is still room and investment opportunities left within the AI universe, even following warnings from key industry figures—such as Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic), Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI), and Elon Musk (xAI)—regarding the need to slow down development due to safety risks.

The impact of the current wave of investment in artificial intelligence could exceed $20 trillion. According to Capital Group, tech megacap capital expenditure is accelerating at a rate that could eclipse China’s industrialization process, referencing a benchmark of reaching $30 trillion by 2032.

“There is no doubt that artificial intelligence is becoming one of the primary drivers of economic activity. However, it should not be understood solely as a technology theme, but as an investment cycle with broad implications for the economy as a whole. The artificial intelligence ecosystem spans multiple levels, from semiconductor design and software development to power supply, infrastructure construction, and sectors integrating the new technology into their operations, such as media and financial services,” they note.

Debate or Marketing?

This massive investment opportunity has coincided in recent days with suggestions to moderate the pace of technological development, which had a slight impact on semiconductor companies while favoring software firms. “Leading model developers have little incentive to voluntarily slow down a technology they view as strategic, especially when Chinese competitors are just six to eight months behind,” according to Banca March.

This debate, combined with a higher interest rate outlook, could, according to Banca March’s latest analysis, “become the perfect backdrop for a temporary pullback in equity markets.” However, the firm’s experts downplay the concern, noting that “the narrative surrounding a potential slowdown in AI development seems to reflect an institutional marketing strategy ahead of two of the largest IPOs in history rather than an operational reality.”

“Competition in this space is extraordinarily intense, global, and decentralized, making any coordination attempt among primary players extremely difficult. Even more so when the Trump administration has been openly opposed, ruling out government interventions in the sector,” they add.

In the view of Flavien del Pino, Head of BDL Capital Management for Spain, the recent correction in tech companies most exposed to AI is not merely a cyclical market movement, but reflects a fundamental doubt regarding the actual profitability of this technology.

“Hyperscaler spending is accelerating to unprecedented levels and is destroying free cash flow generation, accumulating debt that will approach $2 trillion. To justify the $7 trillion that will be invested in data centers through 2030 with a return on capital employed (ROCE) of just 10%, the sector would need to generate $3.6 trillion annually in new revenues—a figure higher than the entire current global market for software and IT services,” he explains regarding the resulting capital return uncertainty.

Brakes on Investment

So, is there any factor that could genuinely stall AI investment? According to experts, a key issue will be national regulations—specifically, the outlook for AI regulation in the United States and potential restrictions on data center development. In the view of Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, while the U.S. Congress may begin to focus more intensely on AI safety and federal government involvement appears inevitable at some point, “we are unlikely to see a comprehensive federal regulatory framework enacted into law in the near term.” Looking ahead to the next Congress, she notes there will likely be greater scrutiny on the issue, though “for now, AI regulation does not appear imminent.”

In the absence of federal progress, Cantrill believes “states are likely to continue moving forward with AI safety legislation” and taking the lead on data center restrictions. In this domain, municipalities in 32 states have already moved forward with moratoria, and up to 26 states are currently considering statewide moratoria.

Against this backdrop, Cantrill anticipates that “in 2027, given the political landscape, we could see greater friction in AI infrastructure development, with a likely widespread increase in data center construction costs” and, in some cases, states opting to halt them entirely. This would imply, she concludes, “a more complex patchworks for both companies and investors.”

Implications for Investors

From an investor’s perspective, Andrew Heiskell, Equity Strategist at Wellington Management, and Brian Barbetta, Global Industry Analyst at Wellington Management, consider that the debate is no longer centered on whether AI is relevant, but on a more complex question: which links in the ecosystem will capture the value generated?

“In such a dynamic environment, long-term technological progress and short-term public market expectations are unlikely to move at the same pace. Instead, we should expect continued moments where investor sentiment overvalues or undervalues shifting business and technological realities,” hold both Wellington Management experts.

Their position is that investing in the constantly evolving AI universe requires not only stock selection, robust analytical capabilities, and top-tier active management, but also a comprehensive understanding of its ecosystem, which can offer investors greater composure amid market volatility and ambiguity. “Simply diversifying across a basket of AI-exposed stocks is unlikely to capture the full potential of this unique and transformative technology. Conversely, active managers with strong analytical capabilities who recognize that leadership will rotate as technology evolves and market conditions change will be better positioned to generate returns and manage risk in this new AI era,” they argue.

Furthermore, for investors, it is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid tech megacaps altogether, given their weight in global equity benchmarks and their critical role in driving productivity, innovation, and economic growth. However, “investors do not need to concentrate their exposure in a handful of U.S. large-cap companies to participate in long-term digitization and artificial intelligence trends,” warns Yan Taw Boon, Head of Thematic Strategies for Asia at Neuberger.

In his view, one of the most important current developments is that the AI infrastructure boom is broadening beyond technology itself. “Capital is increasingly flowing into sectors such as energy, construction, industrial automation, and the manufacturing of specialized components required to build and operate AI data centers. This creates a broader set of opportunities for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven growth while reducing reliance on a small group of dominant tech stocks,” the Neuberger expert explains.

For Taw, diversifying exposure across geographies, sectors, and market capitalizations will be essential so that “investors can participate in the structural growth of the tech sector while mitigating concentration risk.”

Avenue’s New Steps

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

After building its operation around access to international investments for Brazilians, Avenue is preparing a new stage of expansion. The platform wants to broaden the range of services offered to clients and advance into offshore banking products, starting with the launch of a credit card issued in the United States.

The strategy was detailed by Roberto Lee, founder of Avenue, in a conversation with Funds Society Brasil. According to the executive, the company—which has Itaú as its majority partner—perceived that the financial internationalization of Brazilian families is no longer limited to investment diversification and has begun to encompass broader aspects of daily life.

“What we actually discovered is that it doesn’t end there. Brazilian families connecting to the outside world start with investments, but expand their journey into a life journey,” says Lee.

In the Avenue founder’s assessment, this movement appears mainly on three fronts: international education, real estate acquisition, and Brazilians working or receiving income from abroad.

“We have seen in our client base, but also around us, across the entire market, incredible growth in family planning for international education,” he said. “It is a massive journey of Brazilians starting to own real estate abroad. Their first properties, and it is no longer something reserved for very wealthy families. It has already penetrated the high-income segment.”

This shift helps explain Avenue’s next step. If the company’s first phase was concentrated on connecting the Brazilian investor to the international market, the intention now is to accompany the client in other financial needs that arise outside the country as well.

“Our goal is to make a vision we have a reality: to make it as natural for Brazilians to use banking services abroad as they do in Brazil,” he says.

For Lee, a gap exists precisely in this process. While investors in Brazil already find institutions and professionals capable of helping them build an international portfolio, other needs related to living abroad still require families to navigate much of the path on their own.

“They are already connected to the Brazilian system, but across all these other journeys, they become invisible to the Brazilian system. And they have to walk that path alone,” he states.

U.S. Credit Card Still in 2026

One of the first products of this new phase is expected to be Avenue’s credit card. Lee stated that the expectation is to start issuing the first cards to clients later this year.

“It will be an Avenue card. I hope that this year we will begin issuing the first credit cards to our clients.”

According to the executive, the card will be issued and settled in the United States. “It is an American card, operated by a Brazilian company,” he summarizes.

The ambition, however, does not stop at the card. Asked about the possibility of Avenue offering Brazilians access to loans in the U.S. market in the future, Lee said that this is one of the paths the company intends to pursue.

“That is where we are working toward. We are still far, but that is our goal.”

The strategy does not mean, in the executive’s view, simply transforming Avenue into a bank. For Lee, a banking license is only one piece of the infrastructure needed to build a broader service offering abroad.

“A bank is basically a license. I think it’s not about that,” he stated. In this context, the founder highlights the structure of Itaú, Avenue’s controlling shareholder. According to Lee, the group’s presence in different jurisdictions gives the platform access to core structures for this operation.

“It is obvious that we enjoy the privilege of having a controlling majority partner that is Itaú, which manages to have very sophisticated, deeply rooted licenses with human, regulatory, and infrastructure capital in several jurisdictions, including the United States,” says the CEO, noting also that the parent company recently received preliminary authorization to establish a nationally chartered bank in the United States.

Real Estate, Education, Insurance, and Credit

Avenue also sees opportunities in services associated with real estate purchases, international education, and insurance.

Lee’s proposal is that part of this service can continue to be provided directly from Brazil, even when the financial product or service is abroad.

“Our vision is that whoever helps you, just like whoever helps you invest abroad today, will be here in Brazil. Those who will help you get a mortgage, student financing, or insurance for the property you bought abroad will be Brazilian professionals.”

According to him, this involves building an ecosystem that extends beyond Avenue’s own boundaries. The executive cites, for instance, Brazilian real estate agencies expanding their international presence and educational institutions preparing students for foreign universities.

Avenue aims to act as a catalyst for this movement.

“We try to be the catalyst and leadership agent in this,” Lee said. “The leader isn’t just who is the biggest, who makes the most money, or who serves the most clients. The leader is the one who paves the way.”

For the executive, the trend that turned international investing from a product restricted to wealthy families into a broader movement is now appearing in other dimensions of cross-border wealth management.

Lee points to the real estate market as an example. “Brazilians are the third largest buyers of real estate in Florida. The average ticket size keeps dropping. It is no longer reserved for very wealthy families, just as investing abroad is no longer reserved for very wealthy families.”

The Revolution Behind Tokenized ETFs: Transparency, Accessibility, and Modernization

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The digital revolution underway includes a process that promises to be revolutionary for the industry: the tokenization of assets, including ETFs. This is a process by which shares of a traditional exchange-traded fund are converted into unique digital tokens on a blockchain network. Each token represents a fraction or the entirety of the underlying ETF’s value and maintains direct backing.

At State Street, they recall that the ETF sector has been characterized by improving access, transparency, liquidity, and efficiency for both investors and issuers, and that, therefore, tokenization should be considered as “the next step in that evolution,” in addition to the “real” possibility that, as a “wrapper,” it could end up being the optimal choice for investment solutions.

A similar opinion is expressed by Laure Peyranne, Head of ETF for Iberia, Latin America & US Offshore, who asserts that the tokenization of ETFs could “add a new layer of efficiency” to a vehicle that already stands out for its liquidity, transparency, and scalability. In short, it could represent a significant evolution in the fund industry’s infrastructure, “beyond a simple change in product format,” and rather than replacing the traditional ETF structure, “it can contribute to its evolution toward a more digital, automated model connected to new distribution systems.”

Meanwhile, Dovile Silenskyte, Director of Digital Assets Research at WisdomTree, clarifies that tokenization will not alter the economic exposure of an exchange-traded fund, but it could modernize the infrastructure through which ETF shares are issued, transferred, settled, and managed. “Currently, the post-trade process involves multiple parties, each maintaining records and reconciling positions. Tokenization has the potential to create a more synchronized record of ownership and automate elements of this process,” she notes, highlighting that, in practice, “the short-term model is likely to be hybrid: regulated market infrastructure will remain fundamental, while distributed-ledger technology will improve specific workflows.”

The Benefits

The future tokenization of ETFs will bring advantages for investors as well as for the broader industry. In this regard, Peyranne points out that tokenization can facilitate greater accessibility to certain investment vehicles by enabling fractional ownership, with the resulting reduction in minimum access amounts. “It can also contribute to greater operational efficiency by allowing more agile and transparent property records and transfers. It could even enable new functionalities for certain investor profiles, such as using tokenized assets as collateral, provided regulatory frameworks permit it,” she states.

Silenskyte, for her part, sees it as feasible that ETF tokenization will mean fewer manual processes, less need for reconciliation, lower management costs, and greater visibility of distribution activity for issuers. She even ventures to predict the possibility that tokenization could create a new gateway to the market, offering issuers a way to present diversified investment products to digital-native investors who currently “hold a substantial portion of their assets in highly volatile crypto-assets.”

At State Street, they point out that tokenization opens the doors to expanding investor access, broadening ETF distribution, and reducing operational friction. For investors, the firm notes, tokenization could make ETF shares more transferable and easier to utilize through digital wallets, including in collateral, treasury, and financing applications.

Initial Phase

The future holds great opportunities for the ETF industry, but the fund tokenization process still has a long road ahead. Peyranne notes that, according to estimates, tokenized funds in the market stand at around $30 billion to $35 billion, including money market funds, credit funds, and other investment strategies.

“Momentum is building, as many of the world’s largest asset managers and market infrastructure providers are actively investing in tokenized fund initiatives,” State Street points out, though the firm notes that ETF tokenization remains in an initial phase. “The next stage will consist of proving demand from institutional investors, interoperability with existing market infrastructure, and quantifiable improvements in distribution and efficiency,” they explain.

Silenskyte reveals that the sector has moved beyond the proof-of-concept phase, and tokenized funds are already operational across several jurisdictions, with major asset managers and market infrastructure providers allocating capital to this technology. However, she is aware that large-scale adoption remains far off, citing technical limitations as well as hurdles such as the legal treatment of digital securities, platform interoperability, integration with existing custody and settlement systems, the availability of institutional-scale tokenized cash, and consistent cross-border regulation.

In her view, the next phase of the process will determine whether tokenization “becomes a significant enhancement to the ETF operating model or remains a collection of isolated digital structures.”

The Long-Term Effects of AI Deployment

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyDrew T. Matus, Chief Market Strategist at MetLife Investment Management.

The second edition of the Funds Society Leaders Summit, held in collaboration with CFA Society Spain, featured an analysis by MetLife Investment Management, in which Drew T. Matus, Chief Market Strategist at the firm, focused on how he views the world right now and how he believes it will evolve; its risks and, above all, the impact of artificial intelligence.

Matus stated that growth is being driven primarily by AI: the United States and Korea are experiencing accelerated growth, but the rest of the world is facing some difficulties in recovering from last year’s weakness. All of this occurs within a context of inflation and high yields, “which is not necessarily a bad thing.”

The expert observes that, despite geopolitical volatility and inflation, recession expectations in any of these regions remain quite low. “People feel very comfortable that the status quo will hold indefinitely, which is somewhat strange given that yields are normalizing and there is significant geopolitical risk,” he comments, pointing out that the only country behaving remotely abnormally compared to the recent period is Japan.

Matus explains that artificial intelligence, as it spreads across the globe and is used more frequently in different regions, “could narrow the gap between the United States and the rest of the world in terms of productivity growth, which would imply reducing the differential in potential GDP growth.” This circumstance could provide a solution to issues such as government deficits, because according to the expert, “if you manage to grow out of the deficit, you will be in a fairly favorable position.”

However, according to Matus, the future could bring either a narrowing or a widening of this gap. Ultimately, “it will depend on policymakers, in this case in Europe, although the same applies to parts of Asia,” meaning “it is up to policymakers to determine whether they want to close this gap or not, and how to regulate the emerging technologies that could enable it.”

Risks

One of the main risks Matus sees regarding AI does not lie in the promise of the technology itself. CEOs believe it is enough to simply implement this technology in their companies and that giving everyone access to the tool will solve everything on its own. “But the reality is that you need a company designed to use the new technology,” he notes. From an operational standpoint, leveraging it is far more difficult than at any previous time, and now “CEOs have begun to realize that they have made many promises they cannot keep.”

Matus highlights the lack of evidence suggesting that AI is leaving young people out of work. In fact, in the United States, hiring is happening, but for experienced workers, “which is precisely the opposite of what is intended with AI, because experienced workers are the ones who can be replaced and are usually more expensive.” Ultimately, he observes neither an increase in unemployment or underemployment, nor high productivity levels in the United States. Specifically, the latest quarterly figures align with the average of the last 10 years, and even the last 50 years. “If we look for AI in the data, we haven’t found it yet,” he states. Therefore, he sees an opportunity for the markets, “as we have not yet seen the positive impact of AI on the broader economy, neither in the United States nor, frankly, anywhere else.”

Another aspect Matus finds concerning is that a sector that should benefit from artificial intelligence and all the productivity gains it brings—the financial sector—is not experiencing a strong market run on par with the tech sector or the broader market. “The market has bought into the idea that AI will be a revolutionary technology, but conclusive proof is still lacking,” Matus notes.

Ultimately, the expert concludes that the market is betting on short-term optimism around AI. But the reality is that AI will take time to integrate into the economy. For this reason, he anticipates that as AI spreads throughout the economy, “it will have all the effects that are promised in the short term, but we won’t see them anytime soon.”

The Long Term

How do we expect this to play out in the long term? To understand productivity gains in the United States, Matus points to technology and its optimal utilization. The methodology the country used to achieve this—through employee training—was “the right one, whether due to lower regulation or any other reason.”

Matus puts figures on potential U.S. growth through the application of AI: between 4% and 4.5% over the next 10 years, “something we have never seen before in a developed market economy.” It would only be comparable to what was seen following China’s entry into the WTO. Matus highlights at this point that this is one of the reasons why, when analyzing the U.S. deficit or perceiving that Americans do not care about it, “it is because we really don’t care; we believe we can outgrow it.”

There will also be shifts in the economy, as has happened in other technological revolutions. In fact, Matus does not rule out that some of the largest companies in 2025 will no longer hold those positions in the future, just as occurred with the giants of the 1990s. What became clear then—and what Matus considers a risk when weighing artificial intelligence and all the changes occurring in the global economy—is that the companies that figured out how to use the new technology are precisely the ones that made it into that group.

“One or two of them are directly related to technology, but in general, they simply take a different approach to new technologies. So, when reflecting on what the world will look like in 2035, 2040, and 2050, the winners and losers will not necessarily be the names appearing today on the front pages of the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. It is really about companies that are figuring out how to use the technology being offered to them,” he concludes.

State Street Names Mostapha Tahiri President of Its Alpha Platform and Ann Fogarty Chief Operating Officer

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

State Street Corporation has announced the appointment of new executives to support the next phase of the firm’s growth strategy and its continued focus on driving innovation and transformation to help clients achieve better outcomes in increasingly complex global markets. Specifically, Mostapha Tahiri, previously Chief Operating Officer, will become President of State Street Alpha, assuming responsibility for Alpha, Charles River Development (CRD), and a suite of innovative platform solutions; and Ann Fogarty, previously Chief Operating Officer of Investment Services, has been named Enterprise Chief Operating Officer.

Regarding Tahiri’s appointment, the firm clarifies that Alpha is State Street’s leading end-to-end (front-to-back) integrated platform, combining CRD’s front-office technology with the firm’s servicing, markets, and data capabilities to offer investors a single platform experience across the entire investment lifecycle. Drawing on his deep commercial, client, technological, AI, and operational experience, Tahiri will assume end-to-end responsibility for commercial strategy, product strategy, technology, and client delivery for Alpha and CRD. Leveraging the strength of this platform, Tahiri will focus on accelerating growth, strengthening execution, transforming the operating model, and maximizing the full potential of innovation across the business.

Tahiri will also serve as Chair for Asia-Pacific (APAC). Having spent much of his career serving clients in APAC and following his recent return to Singapore, Tahiri is ideally positioned to oversee State Street’s business relationships in the region with key clients, regulatory bodies, and strategic partners. He will continue to serve on State Street’s Executive Committee. This executive has nearly 30 years of international experience in the asset management, asset servicing, investment platforms, and financial technology sectors. His track record includes leading and transforming complex global businesses and driving initiatives where clients, technology, and operations intersect.

Another announced change affects Ann Fogarty, previously Chief Operating Officer of Investment Services, who has been named Enterprise Chief Operating Officer, succeeding Tahiri. In her new role, she will also report to O’Hanley. As Enterprise Chief Operating Officer, she will lead the firm’s global technology and operations areas and drive State Street’s technological modernization and AI agenda, reflecting the growing convergence of technology, operations, data, resilience, and client service across the industry. She will continue to co-lead the firm’s global transformation program alongside John Woods, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), helping accelerate innovation, build greater scale and efficiency, reduce cycle times, and further strengthen the quality of client outcomes across State Street’s businesses. Fogarty will continue to serve on the firm’s Executive Committee. Fogarty brings nearly four decades of industry experience. She has led key client operations for Investment Services, where she drove operational simplification, resilience, and enterprise-wide global transformation initiatives. Fogarty also chairs the Supervisory Board of State Street Bank International GmbH (SSBI), our principal European bank.

Following these changes, Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of State Street, highlighted: “Our clients face increasingly complex markets and operating environments, and are demanding with increasing frequency that technology and operations function seamlessly together. Mostapha’s focus on Alpha—one of State Street’s most differentiating businesses and a core strategic priority for the firm—and Ann’s leadership in global operations and technology provide dedicated direction in areas that drive how we create value for clients. These appointments reinforce the strength of our leadership team and position us to continue executing for clients while investing in the future of our business.”

Together, these appointments establish dedicated leadership in two key areas critical to client needs and the firm’s long-term strategy. They also reflect State Street’s commitment to leading alongside its clients as technology, AI, data, and operations shape the future of investment and investment infrastructure. Both appointments are effective as of 09/14/2026.

Allianz Global Investors and BTG Pactual Seal a Distribution Agreement for US Offshore and Latin America

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyAlexandra Auer, Head of Distribution for EMEA at Allianz Global Investors

Allianz Global Investors (AllianzGI) and BTG Pactual have announced a strategic distribution alliance for the US Offshore market and several Latin American countries, including Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. Under the agreement, BTG Pactual will distribute AllianzGI’s active investment strategies in public and private markets.

As highlighted in a press release, the alliance combines AllianzGI’s global expertise in investment and active management with BTG Pactual’s consolidated regional distribution network, its local market knowledge, and its strong client relationships. The collaboration will expand investors’ access to international strategies, backed by customer service with a local focus.

The agreement, they stressed, reinforces AllianzGI’s commitment to the US Offshore market, a strategic priority for the firm, and reflects its goal to continue expanding its presence in Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.

“Latin America is a strategic market for Allianz Global Investors, and this alliance with BTG Pactual represents an important step toward continuing to drive and strengthen our presence in the region. BTG Pactual’s local expertise, strong client relationships, and consolidated distribution network make it a key partner for AllianzGI. Together, we will be able to better respond to the needs of US Offshore investors and expand access to our active investment strategies in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and other markets across the region,” said Alexandra Auer, Head of Distribution for EMEA at Allianz Global Investors.

“We are pleased to deepen our relationship with Allianz Global Investors through this strategic alliance, which is fully aligned with our goal of collaborating with leading international asset managers to offer our clients access to top-tier investment solutions. This collaboration will allow us to expand access to AllianzGI’s investment capabilities for clients in the US offshore and Latin American markets. Our distribution activities will be driven by a dedicated team of more than 30 professionals, who will work closely with AllianzGI to foster the long-term development of this business. We are confident in building a strong, successful, and lasting partnership,” stated Rubens Henriques, Managing Partner and CEO of BTG Pactual Asset Management.

Mexico Investment Week: How to Attract More Capital?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Mexico arrived in New York with a paradox on the table: the country is experiencing a record moment in foreign direct investment (FDI), but most of these resources do not represent new capital entering the country.

During the first half of 2026, Mexico captured $34.968 billion in FDI, the highest amount recorded for a comparable period. However, 88.5% corresponded to reinvestment of earnings, shifting the challenge from retaining capital already in the country to persuading new investors to allocate resources to companies, infrastructure, and productive projects.

Against this backdrop, the Institutional Stock Exchange (BIVA) held the seventh edition of Mexico Investment Week in New York, bringing together Mexican authorities, business leaders, financial institutions, multilateral organizations, and investors to discuss the necessary conditions for turning international interest in Mexico into new capital flows.

The agenda highlighted several key issues that will shape the next stage of the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship: the future of the USMCA, North American productive integration, the development of capital, fixed income, and credit markets, as well as investment opportunities in energy, water, and infrastructure.

The effort is highly relevant to the Mexican financial market because the challenge of attracting additional investment goes beyond traditional foreign direct investment. It also involves the country’s capacity to channel institutional and private capital toward long-term projects and leverage the stock market as an additional financing source.

From Interest to New Capital Flows

Concrete signals of market appetite for Mexico emerged during the event. René Saúl, CEO and co-founder of Kapital Bank, announced a $125 million funding round in equity and debt, raising the company’s valuation to $2 billion and establishing it, according to information shared at the event, as Latin America’s first artificial intelligence unicorn.

The announcement served as evidence that international interest in Mexico can materialize in technology and financial services companies capable of attracting global capital.

Another discussion framed the potential scale of private equity investment in Mexico. It was estimated that firms such as Apollo Global Management could deploy up to $20 billion in domestic projects over the coming years, primarily in infrastructure, energy, and corporate credit.

This figure highlights one of the key areas where Mexico aims to broaden its appeal: private markets, where large international investors can participate in projects requiring extended investment horizons and capital commitments larger than those traditionally handled by public stock markets.

For BIVA, the primary objective is to bridge this capital with domestic opportunities. María Ariza, CEO of BIVA, stated that Mexico Investment Week aims to serve as a bridge between both markets and build the framework to convert investor interest into long-term relationships and investment opportunities.

“Mexico Investment Week today represents much more than a meeting; it is a bridge connecting two nations, two markets, and two cultures that share a common vision: driving economic growth, innovation, and investment,” she stated.

Mexico and the U.S.: A Relationship That Can Outweigh Tariffs

Trade relations with the United States dominated much of the dialogue, particularly amid uncertainty regarding the USMCA’s future and commercial policies coming out of Washington.

Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director at McLarty Associates, noted during the event that 89% of Mexican exports enter the United States duty-free—a status that, in her view, preserves Mexico’s competitiveness as an investment hub.

The executive also emphasized that no other country possesses comparable access to the U.S. market and minimized expectations of a U.S. withdrawal from the USMCA. The discussion carries added weight as global corporations redefine supply chains to mitigate geopolitical and logistical risks.

For Mexico, the opportunity lies in converting its trade integration with the United States into an advantage for attracting new manufacturing plants, infrastructure, suppliers, logistics hubs, and supply chain services. However, geographic proximity alone is insufficient.

Investors also demand legal certainty, predictable tax rules, adequate infrastructure, and physical conditions suitable for developing long-term projects. Finding the right balance among these factors remains central to competing for global capital.

Mexico’s Geopolitical Thesis

Roberto Lazzeri, Mexico’s Ambassador to the United States, shifted the discussion toward a broader domain: the evolving geopolitical landscape. The diplomat pointed out that the U.S. government is sharpening its focus on the Western Hemisphere, positioning Mexico at the center of this new dynamic.

“There is a shift in the U.S. government’s focus toward the Western Hemisphere, and the gateway to that hemisphere is Mexico; it is the strongest investment thesis you can find,” he declared.

This thesis relies on an underlying economic reality: Mexico is the main trading partner of the United States and is deeply integrated into the North American productive network. This integration makes the country a prime beneficiary of supply chain realignments, while simultaneously raising demands for infrastructure, energy, water, logistics, and financing.

The primary task is ensuring this geopolitical advantage moves beyond a promotional narrative and yields tangible, realized projects.

Capital Markets Seek a Larger Role

In this environment, BIVA’s participation carries implications that extend beyond international promotion; public capital markets can serve as a primary mechanism for transforming investor interest into long-term funding for corporations and infrastructure. Achieving this, however, will require expanding Mexico’s issuer base, boosting investor participation, and deepening market liquidity.

The Mexico Investment Week agenda specifically covered discussions on fixed income, credit, and capital markets, Alongside sector-specific opportunities in energy, water, and infrastructure.

The core logic remains clear: if Mexico aims to capitalize on the next cycle of North American integration, it will require substantial capital volumes.

A portion will come from FDI; another share from commercial banks and private markets; and additional funds from institutional investors and public capital markets.

The scale of the challenge is reflected in the composition of recent FDI flows. The nearly $35 billion captured in the first half shows that Mexico retains strong fundamentals for attracting foreign capital. However, with nearly nine out of every ten dollars coming from reinvested earnings, significant room remains for drawing brand-new projects and greenfield investments.

Consequently, BIVA’s objective in New York extended beyond presenting Mexico as an attractive destination, focusing instead on addressing a more complex core question: how to convert the nation’s trade and geopolitical advantages into new, committed investment decisions.

Mexico Investment Week will continue with activities including a market bell ceremony at Nasdaq, alongside sessions covering economic outlooks, state-level investment opportunities, and fintech ecosystem developments.

Ultimately, the goal is to establish financial channels capable of routing international interest, North American integration, and global supply chain realignments directly toward companies and projects seeking expansion capital.

Record FDI figures confirm that Mexico remains an attractive market; the immediate test is converting that attraction into new money, productive investment, and long-term capital deployment.

The US Sets the Pace While Emerging Markets Accelerate the Global “Ultra-Rich” Factory

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyThe Wealth Report 2026 (Knight Frank)

Global wealth creation has surged at an extraordinary pace over the last five years. According to the new Wealth Sizing Model included in The Wealth Report 2026 by Knight Frank, the global population of Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs)—defined as those with net assets exceeding $30 million—has expanded from 551,435 in 2021 to reach 713,626 worldwide.

As detailed in the document, this rapid expansion has been decisively dominated by the United States, which generated 41% of new ultra-high-net-worth individuals thanks to the depth and liquidity of its capital markets, as well as the powerful multiplier effect of the technology sector and artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific and India are consolidating their positions as secondary drivers of structural growth.

Figures from the report reveal that, over the past five years, 89 people around the world crossed the $30 million threshold every single day. The strength of U.S. financial infrastructure will drive the country from concentrating 35% of global UHNWIs in 2026 to a projected 41% by the year 2031, adding more than 136,000 new ultra-high-net-worth individuals. To accommodate this relentless U.S. expansion, nearly every other country—including China, which will drop from its current 17% share to 15%—will see its global market share contract.

However, the report highlights clear geographical dispersion looking ahead, driven by rapidly maturing economies. Indonesia leads percentage growth forecasts, with a projected 82% surge in its UHNWI population by 2031. It is followed closely by Saudi Arabia and Poland (both above 60%), as well as Vietnam (nearly 60%), underscoring the speed at which new wealth hubs are forming, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Global UHNWI and Billionaire Charts. Source: Knight Frank, The Wealth Report 2026

The billionaire segment confirms this shift toward global diversification. Although Asia-Pacific holds the highest total count (1,116 compared to North America’s 965), the fastest growth rates over the next five years will be registered in Saudi Arabia (+183%), Poland (+123%), Sweden (+81%), and Australia (+77%).

The Australian case stands out for its economic resilience and depth: its UHNWI population is projected to grow nearly 60% (reaching 26,095 individuals), supported by an ecosystem combining commodities with an increasingly sophisticated financial services and technology sector.

For its part, India represents a story of large-scale consolidation. After seeing its ultra-wealthy population skyrocket 63% between 2021 and 2026, the country is set to add an additional 27% by 2031, surpassing 25,000 UHNWIs. This progress reflects the transformation of its economy toward a model backed by a deeper equity market, greater private equity penetration, and increasingly established global investment networks.

mRNA Melanoma Vaccine: What the Market Measures and How Health Managers Interpret It

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Julia Kung (Groupama AM) a la izquierda, Christian Fay (BNP Paribas AM) en el centro y Sara Torrecilla (Candriam) a la derecha. — Photo courtesy

When Moderna and MSD announced that their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine had met its primary endpoints in Phase 3, the market did not wait for the fine print. Within hours, both companies added tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization, without a peer-reviewed scientific publication or a complete breakdown of efficacy and safety yet available. Funds Society consulted three fund managers with exposure to the healthcare sector—Candriam, BNP Paribas AM, and Groupama AM—to understand exactly what that price is discounting, and what needs to happen for the bet to hold.

“Investors are assigning value to the possibility that this approach could work across multiple tumor types and treatment settings,” summarizes Sara Torrecilla, Senior Biotech Analyst at Candriam, regarding a stock rally that at its peak added roughly $90 billion in combined market value and settled around $60 billion net. It is, in her words, a warning sign as much as a point of enthusiasm: the peak sales estimates already circulating in the market, in the tens of billions of dollars, “should be viewed as market assumptions, not clinical evidence.”

Groupama AM, manager of the Global Disruption fund, reaches a similar diagnosis from a different angle. “The surge in stock prices for Moderna and Merck reflects a de-risking re-rating of both companies thanks to a historic validation of the mRNA platform, considered ‘first-in-class,'” explains Julia Kung, portfolio manager and international equity and convertible bond analyst at the firm. The market, she adds, “is also betting that this could be expanded beyond melanoma to other tumors, such as non-small cell lung cancer, bladder, kidney, and other cancer types,” even though all that has been published so far is “an interim summary of results across two endpoints” without the complete dataset on risk, statistical confidence, and safety. Stock prices, she reminds, “always look forward,” and reacted this way because this represents the first Phase III success for an individualized neoantigen therapy and for any mRNA-based cancer treatment.

From BNP Paribas AM, Senior Portfolio Manager Christian Fay agrees that the reaction is justified, though he emphasizes the underlying medical need: the interim data showed “statistically significant and clinically meaningful” improvements compared to treatment with Keytruda alone, in a type of melanoma—resected high-risk cutaneous—where unmet medical need remains high. “These results reinforce our conviction that targeted, personalized medicine can be a particularly effective strategy to treat specific types of cancer, such as melanoma,” notes Fay.

Merck, Keytruda, and the Defensive Play

There is a second layer to the story that relates specifically to Merck. Kung, from Groupama, observes that by combining the vaccine with Keytruda, “this collaboration generates a narrative of potential market dominance not only in melanoma, but also across other cancer types where Keytruda is used.” She goes further: “the rally in Merck’s stock price can be interpreted as a successful defensive narrative: that Merck can protect and extend the Keytruda franchise through combination therapies, while also signaling confidence in Merck’s ability to grow beyond Keytruda.” In other words, part of what the market is celebrating is not just the vaccine itself, but the possibility that Merck has found a way to extend the commercial lifespan of its flagship product.

Revolution or Intermediate Step?

It is in the scale of the promise where perspectives begin to diverge. Kung admits that, over the long term, this “could prove to be ‘revolutionary’ and, so to speak, mark the true beginning of the ‘cancer vaccine’ market.” But she qualifies: “at present, it is better characterized as a platform-level inflection point, analogous to the first kinase inhibitor that validated targeted therapy, rather than an immediate restructuring of pharmaceutical leadership.” The reason is two-fold: adjuvant melanoma is “a relatively narrow indication,” and large-scale personalized manufacturing—producing a distinct treatment for every single patient—”remains operationally complex and expensive.”

Candriam frames the same caution within its specific oncology mandate: personalized mRNA vaccines must be “evaluated with the same discipline as other treatment modalities,” in an increasingly multimodal therapeutic landscape where other innovations—such as antibody-drug conjugates and targeted therapies—have already found their place depending on the tumor type. Torrecilla expands the radar beyond pharmaceutical companies: the life sciences supply chain—tumor sequencing, mRNA manufacturing, lipid nanoparticles—added roughly $50 billion in market value on the day of the announcement, according to Jefferies estimates. But she clarifies the limits of that thesis: “no third-party vendor has been publicly confirmed as a direct manufacturing or sequencing partner,” so it is best not to get ahead of assigning that value to specific companies just yet.

BNP Paribas, without a dedicated thematic healthcare fund, resolves the dilemma differently: capturing the thesis through diversified portfolios that collectively exceed $5 billion, with exposure to healthcare and biotech companies that, according to Fay, act as “engines of innovation” for big pharma. The backdrop, he explains, is structural: nearly $200 billion in big pharma sales will be exposed to patent expirations in the coming years, which will keep both innovation and M&A activity high, because internal R&D at major companies is insufficient to fill that gap.

The next real test for all of this comes in October, with the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress, taking place from October 23 to 27 in Madrid. It is one of the most influential events on the global oncology calendar, where the full trial dataset will be shared.

According to Kung, “the gap between top-line data and granular details is where short-term valuation risk is concentrated.” Torrecilla speaks in similar terms: “The market will focus on the magnitude of the benefit,” both to confirm the commercial opportunity in melanoma and to build confidence in extending the approach to other tumors.

Meanwhile, each fund manager maintains their own list of catalysts. Groupama monitors the FDA submission and review of the Biologics License Application (BLA) for adjuvant melanoma, results in non-small cell lung cancer—which they view as “the most closely watched expansion opportunity given its significantly larger potential market”—pricing and reimbursement signals—since “custom production for every patient represents a major commercial constraint” and payers “will establish the revenue ceiling”—and BioNTech’s trial in pancreatic cancer with autogene cevumeran, which “will indicate the extent to which the concept can be generalized across different tumor types.” Candriam adds Phase 1 data in pancreatic cancer and expected renal cell carcinoma results by year-end to that list. BNP Paribas, for its part, closely tracks other industry milestones such as the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, broadening its view to other areas of healthcare innovation where it identifies similar opportunities.

Active ETFs, Increasingly Important in Investor Portfolios

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyTom Stephens, Head of ETFs at Schroders.

Active ETFs are leaving behind their status as a niche allocation to become an increasingly relevant element in portfolio construction. The Schroders Global Investor Insights Study 2026 (GIIS) shows that investors are seeking to combine active management with the operational advantages inherent to ETFs, overcoming the perception of these vehicles as a mere lower-cost alternative to mutual funds.

Thus, globally, virtually all respondents (98%) recognize that active ETFs have a role to play in portfolios (compared to only 2% who believe otherwise), shifting the debate: it is no longer about whether to use them, but how to get the most out of them.

This shift is especially relevant in the current market environment. In a setting marked by higher volatility and persistent uncertainty, investors need tools that allow them to act quickly, closely monitor their positions, and adjust them with agility, without giving up the added value of active management.

Cost is no longer everything

Regarding the factors investors place the most importance on when evaluating an active ETF, cost is cited without hesitation. Lower costs compared to mutual funds are the main advantage for 70% of respondents. But interest in these products is no longer limited to cheaper access to active management. For more than half of respondents worldwide (51%), intraday liquidity and the ability to trade at market prices, along with higher liquidity in the secondary market (55%) compared to equivalent mutual funds, are other major arguments in favor of this investment vehicle. This is because active ETFs can be bought and sold continuously, often supported by market makers. In contrast, traditional funds are typically valued and settled only once a day, limiting flexibility when rapid intervention is needed.

Greater portfolio transparency is another element particularly valued by investors (51%). Conversely, barely 11% of respondents identified tax efficiency as a benefit.

Chart 1: Top factors when choosing an active ETF

Source: Schroders Global Investor Insights Study 2026. The survey question was: “When considering an active ETF, which of the following advantages are most important to you?”, and respondents were asked to rank their top three reasons.

How do investors use active ETFs?

The survey points out that investors incorporate active ETFs as flexible components within portfolio construction. They allow them to express their investment convictions, access differentiated exposures, and complement their core positions, while maintaining high operational efficiency.

This is structured mainly on two levels. On one hand, investors consider that active ETFs play a relevant role in diversification (68%). On the other hand, they also point to them as a core component in building their investment portfolios (38%).

Tom Stephens, Head of ETFs at Schroders, noted: “The appeal of active ETFs lies in the simplicity of the vehicle and the ease with which they can be integrated, both strategically and tactically. Strategically, they can serve as core equity or fixed income exposure; tactically, they allow positioning in duration, themes, or sectors. And it’s not just a matter of costs: the ability to trade intraday across different platforms facilitates making rapid adjustments, with greater transparency and operational efficiency than many other instruments. This is especially useful when seeking specific goals, such as diversification or risk management.”

Active ETFs for specialized and harder-to-access markets

The survey also shows that demand for active ETFs is not uniform across all investment areas. Investors especially value active management in areas where markets have less coverage, are less efficient, or present greater structural complexity. This is the case for thematic or sector strategies (49%), small- and mid-cap equities (43%), and emerging market equities (40%).

This highlights that investors are looking for active ETFs to combine ease of trading with active management results that make a real difference, especially when index exposure is less precise or when other vehicles are less operational.

Addressing concerns: returns and con fusion with passive ETFs

Despite the strong momentum of active ETFs, the survey shows that some obstacles to adoption remain, which have more to do with the fund manager than with the structure of the vehicle itself. Thus, nearly half of respondents globally (43%) point to uncertainty regarding the performance of this investment solution compared to active mutual funds, a vehicle that remains dominant and has a long tradition in the market, as the main concern. Meanwhile, the second largest concern expressed by investors (40%) is the unclear differentiation between active and passive ETFs.

These elements suggest that the next phase of growth for active ETFs will largely depend on managers’ ability to demonstrate the robustness of their investment process and explain how strategies are implemented and managed within the ETF fund structure, so that investors can understand them and track them over the long term.