Edmond de Rothschild Group, the wealth and investment manager, announced that Vincent Taupin will assume global responsibility for Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management with effect from 1 January 2017, alongside his existing role as President du Directoire of Edmond de Rothschild France. This follows Roderick Munsters’ decision to resign from his role as Head of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management for personal reasons. However, he will continue to contribute to the Group by joining the board of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France).
Commenting on his departure, Roderick Munsters said, “In a short but exciting period at Edmond de Rothschild, I have been able to review and prepare a new and integrated asset management strategy. I have reluctantly taken the decision to step down and to return to the Netherlands.”
Ariane de Rothschild, Chairwoman of the Group Executive Committee, commented, “I fully understand the reasons for Roderick’s decision to step down from his leadership role in Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, and wish him all the best for the future. I have asked Vincent Taupin to assume responsibility for the asset management business alongside his existing French Private Banking role, as I believe that now is the right time to accelerate the convergence of our expertise, businesses and geographies. This is what our clients expect from a leading investment house.”
Commenting on his new responsibilities, Vincent Taupin said, “I am very much looking forward to taking on this additional responsibility, having worked closely with Roderick over the last six months.”
In related promotions, it was also announced today that Renzo Evangelista and Stéphane Pardini have been appointed Deputy Directors in the French Private Bank. In addition, Didier Deléage has been appointed CEO of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France).
Commenting on these promotions, Ariane de Rothschild said, “I am proud to be able to strengthen the management team by nominating colleagues from within our excellent talent pool. I congratulate them and wish them success in their new roles.”
The S-curve, which shows the growth trajectory of a company creating a new product or even a new industry can be an ally or enemy for investors. Find such a company toward the front end of the S curve and you could potentially own the stock through its explosive growth period. Invest at the top of the S curve, and you’ve missed much of the growth. It’s at that point – when most of their growth is behind them – that many companies graduate to the larger stock indexes. Skilled active managers try to find these companies much earlier on in the curve, with an eye toward tapping greater growth potential.
Consider the adoption of the personal computer in the 1980s and 1990s, which started slowly when they were cumbersome and expensive. But once PCs became easier to use in the early 1990s and allowed multi-tasking, prices fell sharply and soon they were on virtually every desktop within major corporations. Retail prices fell further, bringing the PC within reach of the home user. The introduction of the web browser in the mid-90s suddenly unleashed a wave of demand for computers, software and related products that culminated in the dotcom bubble which burst so memorably in the spring of 2000. Eventually the market for personal computers matured and became saturated. They became a low-margin, commodity product with little to differentiate one from another.
Personal computers spawned an industry which has had unprecedented impacts on many aspects of society, including the way we work, learn and consume content. The ripple effects of the PC revolution continue to be felt, even as the devices themselves evolve.
Under such creative disruption scenarios, the investment opportunity for skilled active managers comes from: 1) understanding where a company is in its growth trajectory along with key drivers of growth in a given industry and 2) an ability to reassess as the market matures. Are we in the early adoption or infancy phase, where there is great potential but the need for patience? Are we in the expansion phase where growth accelerates almost vertically? Or the maturity phase, where competitors flood the market, the product becomes commoditized and margins compress?
As history has shown, these cycles repeat. In recent years the smart phone has displaced the personal computer. Instead of storing data on floppy disks, we now store it in the cloud. Instead of consuming entertainment content at home on a television, increasingly we consume more of it on the go on a mobile device. Creative disruption is a never-ending process, creating opportunity and risk at every turn. Having an integrated research platform helps a skilled manager identify the opportunities and the risks and make decisions accordingly.
The market is a discounting mechanism of all available information. What we do as managers is to try and determine what the market has discounted and whether it’s correct. Our goal is to recognize a trend or an undervalued asset and risk-weight that asset appropriately. Having diverse points of view across the organization — in terms of exploring opportunities from both a fundamental and quantitative perspective, across geographies and from analysts in different sectors—can all play a role in creating better investment decisions, and hopefully better outcomes.
A collaborative culture and an integrated research platform can help skilled managers understand the ripple-effects created by disruptive new technologies. Teams of talented managers and analysts are better positioned to think-through the ramifications on a global scale than those focused strictly on the technology or product itself. For instance, would a new technology, such as electronic payment methods be adopted more rapidly in developed markets owing to an infrastructure advantage, creating opportunities for incumbent technologies to gain market share in less developed markets? This is the type of issue where a skilled active manager who cross-pollinates ideas across disciplines and stress-tests assumptions among investment team members would hope to stay ahead of the curve.
Robert M. Almeida, Jr. is MFS Institutional Portfolio Manager.
UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) predicts a polarized political world in 2017. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to rise to 3.5% from 3.1% this year as US growth improves, despite the ongoing slowdown in China. With elections set for the Netherlands, France and Germany, investors will need to be conscious of increased post-Brexit division in Europe.
In the US, CIO expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates once in December and twice in 2017, but new fiscal stimulus should support growth, and inflation is likely to rise more than rates. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank will probably start to taper quantitative easing. China will likely continue to manage its slowdown and let the USDCNY exchange rate depreciate to 7.0 in 12 months.
Mark Haefele, Global Chief Investment Officer at UBS Wealth Management, says: “We believe that central banks in the US and Europe will continue to err on the side of loose monetary policy. This means equities can remain supported, most notably in the US and emerging markets, and that investments with a decent yield will remain sought after. Investors will also need to consider means of hedging portfolios against rising inflation.”
The lessons of 2016
Don’t confuse a base case with a done deal. The past year has been ignominious for base case forecasts. Donald Trump won the US election. The UK voted to leave the EU. And central banks were forced to ease policy more than previously thought necessary.
Don’t panic. 2016 rewarded investors who remained calm amid uncertainty. The MSCI All-Country World Index dropped 13% early in the year on concerns over China, but bounced back by the end of March. After the Brexit vote, markets regained prior highs within three weeks.
Don’t underestimate central banks. Central bank policy surprises this year meant that even some negative-yielding assets provided positive returns.
Top 10 ideas for 2017
US equities. US earnings should grow 8% in 2017, supported by stabilizing oil prices, accommodative monetary policy and potential fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration.
Emerging market (EM) equities. A softer US dollar, low developed market (DM) interest rates and stabilizing GDP growth and commodity prices should continue to help EM stocks next year.
EM FX basket. Low DM rates help make high-yielding EM FX – real, rupee, ruble, & rand – attractive versus growth-sensitive DM peers – Australian & Canadian dollars & Swedish krone.
Asia Pacific real estate investment trusts should also benefit from low DM rates. Yields relative to government bonds are attractive compared with global averages.
Dividends and buybacks. With yields ultra-low in the Eurozone, Japan, and Switzerland, companies offering reliable incomes there have become even more appealing.
US senior loans. Senior loan yields offer a 4% pickup over short-maturity investment-grade corporate bonds, which is attractive even if default rates rise to long-term averages.
US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). CIO expects TIPS to benefit from higher wage growth, stabilizing oil prices, potential fiscal stimulus and a weaker US dollar.
Palladium and platinum. A pickup in industrial activity, political uncertainty and falling real interest rates should support both precious metals in 2017.
Alternatives. Traditional asset class returns are likely to be moderate in 2017. The uncorrelated exposure offered by hedge funds, private markets, and short-term investment opportunities will be more valuable than ever.
Sell high-grade bonds. Yields are negligible and risks are rising. Investors could consider replicating some of the asset class’s insurance features with other approaches, including systematic hedging and allocation strategies.
Recommended long-term investment themes for 2017 and beyond
Emerging market healthcare catch-up. In developing nations, spending on healthcare is far outpacing GDP growth, creating opportunities for companies and impact investors.
Energy efficiency. Governments are increasing incentives to cut down on carbon emissions and lower energy consumption. Such standards now cover 30% of the fuel used worldwide.
The education gap. Companies are helping to meet demand for higher education and training as governments struggle to keep up.
As investors look forward to 2017, CIO’s End Game offers the opportunity to play policymaker and see how solutions to the world’s economic issues can affect economies, markets, and portfolios. A recent survey of UBS’s Industry Leader Network of entrepreneur clients globally underscored the importance of policy in investment planning: 25% named the political landscape as the biggest potential change for their business in 2017, compared with 19% who cited technology upgrades, 12% who cited a different shift, and 44% who saw no change.
Pioneer Investments announces that Tanguy Le Saout and Ali Chabaane have resigned from Pioneer with immediate effect, and on the 13th of December, 2016, they will consent to the orders of the Dublin High Court that effectively redress any advantage they might have obtained due to their conduct in seeking to launch a competing asset management business.
Le Saout and Chabaane were recently suspended following an internal investigation that showed they had acted against the commercial best interests of Pioneer. There has been no negative impact on client assets or accounts; no other investment professionals were involved; and no regulatory breaches occurred. Two other human resources employees, associated with the actions of Le Saout and Chabaane, will also consent to the orders of the Dublin High Court and have also resigned with immediate effect.
Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments, commented “Any actions that violate our corporate values of trust, loyalty and teamwork must be responded to, irrespective of the circumstances. We have taken decisive action in this instance in order to protect our commercial best interests and have ensured that no client assets were adversely affected and no compliance breaches took place.”
Following the resignations, 15-year Pioneer veteran Cosimo Marasciulo currently Head of European Government Bonds, has been appointed as Head of European Fixed Income and Declan Murray, currently Global Chief of Staff for Investments at Pioneer, to provide guidance and leadership to the Portfolio Construction team. Pioneer expects a seamless transition under Marasciulo and Murray given the capability and experience of both individuals, as well as the strength and depth of the broader Pioneer European fixed-income team that encompasses a matrix structure of over 15 portfolio managers and 24 research analysts.
Amundi announced on Monday that it has signed a binding agreement with UniCredit in order to acquire Pioneer Investments for an all-cash consideration of €3,545 million.
Aliant, aLos Angeles-based international law firm, has observed a significant spike in the number of clients moving wealth outside the United Statesfollowing the presidential election.
Donald Trump’s successful campaign clinched him the presidency, but his ‘America First’ foreign policy has raised concerns in the global community and among the affluent Americans. It is not unusual for governments with a nationalist bend to restrict the outflow of wealth.
Jacob Stein, one of Aliant’s partners in Los Angeles, chairs the firm’s private wealth and asset protection practice and represents a significant number of ultra-high net worth families, including Forbes 400 families. Stein states, “A lot of our wealthy U.S. clients have contacted us about moving wealth offshore. Some have expressed concerns about the uncertainty of the Trump presidency, the future of the U.S. economy, possible currency controls, prohibitions against foreign investment and currency risks. These clients are looking to diversify their wealth out of the U.S., access foreign markets, diversify their currency portfolios and set aside a secure box of wealth beyond the reach of the U.S. government.”
Analysts speculate that trade and investment will drop sharply because Trump’s proposed foreign policy will place a strain on alliances and trade agreements, leading to instability. An unstable economy makes investors fearful.
Stein confirms that the fear of economic and financial instability is the primary reason for the flight of capital out of the U.S. The firm is representing these clients to establish offshore wealth holding structures like foreign trusts and private foundations, to set up offshore bank and investment accounts and to ensure that all offshore structures are protected from creditors and anonymous to the greatest extent possible, without running afoul of the tax laws and government mandated disclosures.
PIMCO has entered into a joint venture with Solar Capital Partners as the firm continues to develop and expand its private credit platform. Solar Capital Partners is an experienced and highly respected investor in private corporate credit with a successful 10-year track record of making private loans to corporate borrowers. The firm also has an extensive network of relationships with middle market borrowers and private equity sponsors.
This joint venture is the result of collaboration between PIMCO and Solar Capital Partners that began in 2014. Emmanuel Roman, PIMCO’s Chief Executive Officer said: “This joint venture is a continuation of the disciplined expansion of PIMCO’s alternatives’ strategies since 2004, where we have sought to capitalize on targeted market opportunities by leveraging PIMCO’s broad investment expertise and long-term performance focus.” Dan Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO added: “We believe the combination of Solar Capital Partners’ proven credit underwriting and relationships matched with PIMCO’s global credit investment experience creates a superior ability in sourcing, evaluating, and underwriting private investments. We believe that private credit is an attractive super-secular opportunity.”
Michael Gross, Co-Founder of Solar Capital Partners, said: “We are excited about expanding our partnership with PIMCO and the depth of resources they can bring to our investment process. We believe that a well-managed, private direct corporate lending strategy has the potential to provide an attractive risk-adjusted yield premium relative to public credit investments.” “Together with the two publicly-traded Business Development Companies that we manage, Solar Capital Ltd. and Solar Senior Capital Ltd., our joint venture with PIMCO can provide us with significant scale to deliver full solutions to our clients,” said Bruce Spohler, Co-Founder of Solar Capital Partners.
Amundi announces that it has signed a binding agreement with UniCredit in order to acquire Pioneer Investments for an all-cash consideration of €3,545 million. As part of the transaction, Amundi will form a long term strategic partnership with UniCredit for the distribution of asset management products.
With €222 billion of assets under management, a majority being retail assets, Pioneer Investments has a highly complementary business and geographic profile with Amundi, the firms declare in the press release.
Eighth Largest Asset Manager Globally
This acquisition will strengthen significantly Amundi’s industrial project and reinforce its position as the European leader in asset management. It will create the 8th largest asset manager globally with €1,276 billion of assets under management, and will allow Amundi to reinforce its leadership in key European markets. “The combined entity will be number 1 in France, in a top 3 position in Italy and in Austria, and in a strong position in Germany.”
Italy will become Amundi’s second domestic market with €160bn under management, and Milan will become one of the Group’s investment “hubs”. The number of staff in Milan will therefore significantly increase.
The price of the acquisition is €3,545 million. The transaction will be financed by c.€1.5 billion of excess capital, a c.€1.4bn capital increase (rights issue), and c.€0.6bn of senior and subordinated debt. The rights issue will be launched in H1 2017 and will be underwritten by Crédit Agricole Group.
The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2017.
Commenting on the acquisition, Xavier Musca, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Amundi, said “This acquisition is fully in line with the selective acquisition strategy announced at the time of the IPO: Pioneer Investments will reinforce Amundi’s product expertise, broaden its distribution channels and networks, and generate significant synergies. It confirms Amundi’s position as a clear European leader in asset management, in terms of size and profitability.”
Yves Perrier, Chief Executive Officer of Amundi, added “The acquisition of Pioneer Investments is a major step to anchor Amundi as the European leader in asset management. This acquisition will reinforce Amundi’s industrial model and will benefit our clients whilst creating significant value for our shareholders. Pioneer Investments is a world class asset manager that has a highly complementary business and geographic profile. At Amundi we are all excited to welcome soon our new colleagues who will join us in a leading asset management group fully dedicated to serve its retail and institutional clients.”
PineBridge Investments a leading global multi-asset class investment manager, today released its 2017 Global Investment Outlook, a comprehensive analysis and preview across asset classes of the opportunities and risks for investors in the year ahead.
“We surveyed the state of the markets on behalf of multi-asset, fixed income, and equity investors around the world. What we found is that all of these markets are ripe for change – and the catalysts are everywhere,” said Greg Ehret, CEO of PineBridge. “Political winds are shifting across developed and emerging economies and globalization shifts are creating new challenges and opportunities. Investors will have to look within and across geographies, sectors, and asset classes to best position themselves for this new chapter. ”
In 2017, investors will need to keep an eye on the rise of political risk in the developed world, particularly in the US and Europe, which could depress growth and raise market volatility. Markus Schomer, Chief Economist, is looking for a move in monetary policy away from excessive stimulus in the developed world and toward a more balanced stance that will gradually turn into policy normalization in the next few years.
“There should also be a gradual shift toward growing business investment – as long as interest rates remain low – instead of labor expenditures. Overall, the team expects a moderate reacceleration in global economic growth from the 3% average in the past two years to 3.4% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018,” said Schomer. For US GDP, growth forecasts have been raised to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.
Multi-Asset: Fasten Your Seat Belts, It’s Going to Be a Bumpy Regime Change
“The year ahead marks several simultaneous secular turning points including the initial signs of deleveraging ending in the US. A net plus to global growth with more meaningful differences to regional, sector, asset class, and factor winners and losers is a healthy backdrop for seeking alpha from choosing beta,” said Michael J. Kelly, Global Head of Multi-Asset. “When the two largest economies – the US and China – pivot from slowing to revving up, take notice. Several other simultaneous regime changes are also likely to be fellow travelers.”
While the US equity market previously appeared modestly overvalued, after-tax cash flows will now be worth more if taxes are meaningfully reduced. US GDP should also accelerate from a host of factors. Given US small-cap and value stocks’ economic sensitivity, their attractive valuation is now being complemented with improving fundamentals by the second half of 2017, when tax rates should decline.
Countries with accelerating and domestically sourced growth –like India and Indonesia– provide compelling opportunities. Commodity producers should be big winners with infrastructure programs working their way through the pipeline. Risks to the outlook include trade negotiations spiralling into a global trade war, an inflation scare (but not an actual spike) emanating from the US, sluggishness in Europe and Japan, where negative interest rates and commensurately low output gaps persist, and China rethinking its faster trajectory.
Fixed Income: Investors Return to Coupon-Clipping in a Shifting, More Uncertain Environment
In 2017, PineBridge expects fixed income returns to decline while tail risks increase. More caution is in order given the likelihood of volatility flashpoints related to rising political risk in developed countries as well as a limited valuation cushion to absorb market shocks.
“With political risk and a transitory environment of monetary and fiscal policy we can expect heightened bouts of volatility to impact investing in fixed income. Investors must capture incremental alpha opportunities both across and within asset classes through micro views and security selection,” said Steven Oh, Global Head of Credit and Fixed Income.
Across developed markets investment grade, US dollar credit is preferred over European credit with Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as a defensive portfolio hedge, given higher US inflation risk. In leveraged finance, loans are favored over high-yield bonds on a risk-adjusted basis, with the US more attractive than Europe. In emerging markets, hard currency investment grade bonds over high yield segments are recommended for 2017, along with a targeted approach toward local currencies.
Equities: A Return to Fundamentally Driven Investing
The period of sharply falling earnings estimates for 2017 appears to have ended, with an increase in the number of companies seeing positive revisions, which should restore investors’ confidence in the broad equity market. The slump in emerging markets may be ending as many of the main factors that led to underperformance are now stabilizing or even reversing, and infrastructure spending ramps up in Asia. However, risks to equity markets remain with the uncertainty around US trade agreements or a potential disorderly increase in bond yields.
“We see equity flows pivoting to active strategies in a market driven by fundamentals where selectivity will be key, as global growth accelerates,” said Anik Sen, Global Head of Equities. “We maintain a high conviction on technology-related investments, small and midcap stocks, the US regional banks as well as in industries that benefit from infrastructure spending. In emerging markets, China is a bright spot with attractive secular growth in a number of sectors, and our positive view on India and Brazil, in particular, remains unchanged.”
Investors’ misperceptions about what impacts their outcomes often make them spend too much time measuring what doesn’t matter and not enough time on what does. It’s time to start looking at what really counts when choosing an investment manager.
Investors have a tougher job today than ever before. They’re taking more risk than in decades past in order to achieve similar returns. And they’re doing so against a backdrop of geopolitical and market uncertainty — things they cannot control, but still must take into consideration. Understandably, that sense of uncertainty, coupled with the need to take more risk, is driving investors to focus on what is tangible and easy to measure — in an effort to gain some sense of control.
We see investors spending a lot of time anchored to short-term past performance — three year returns dominate decision-making for example — as well as tracking traditional, price-momentum benchmarks that point more to changes in prices than true, long-term value. But these metrics don’t matter as much to investment outcomes.
So it’s time to have a disruptive conversation. We want to help investors get back to spending time on what they know has always counted more — people, process and philosophy, but also a healthy dose of honesty around time horizons.
However, in a world that has become so short-term focused, that is a significant hurdle. Lack of clarity around time horizons appears to be a growing convention, and it’s tough to break with popular sentiment, especially at a time of greater angst. Markets are more complex and finding returns is more challenging. But here is an important truth. Looking at what is easy to measure (e.g., endless data comparisons) only creates the illusion of control, and feeds into ambiguity aversion — a known behavioral bias that kicks in because we don’t like uncertainty.
Also, short-term micro-measurement doesn’t help forecast the future, generate returns or meet investors’ long-term goals. Rather, it causes pro-cyclical (herding) behavior among investors, which, as noted by the International Monetary Fund in a paper on countercyclical investing, takes them away from their inherent “edge as long-horizon investors.“
While investors do spend considerable time evaluating the harder to measure key attributes of investment managers during their search process, they tend to brush those metrics aside in post-hiring evaluations, especially in times of short-term underperformance. It may be common practice to revert back to performance measurement, but there is a danger in relying too heavily on what doesn’t persist.
As you can see in the exhibits below, even the top-performing managers don’t stay on that pedestal from period to period. For example, of the managers who performed in the top quartile from October 1990 to September 1995, only 25% remained in the top quartile in the subsequent period from October 1995 to September 2000, while the rest dropped down to lower quartiles. On the other hand, looking at the second exhibit, which shows what happened to bottom quartile managers over the same time periods, 27% of these managers went from the lowest performance ranking to the top performance ranking in the subsequent period.
An investment manager’s people, process and philosophy — which reflect the strength of its collective intelligence, culture and the management of its talent and business, tend to be far more persistent. Why does that matter so much to investors? Because these qualities may reflect a manager’s ability to go against the grain when necessary, applying its insight toward finding opportunities other managers may be missing and potentially recognizing risks that others may not. In short, investors want to see signs of a manager’s power to be countercyclical.
The harder-to-measure manager attributes are also highly relevant to the environmental, social and governance (ESG) conversation. We believe ESG is often misconstrued as more of a social/responsible investment decision. That has driven some investment managers to respond with a relevant product set. In reality, ESG is much more about trying to invest in good businesses rather than bad — finding those with true long-term value by understanding what factors (e.g., good management, effective capital allocation and superior products and services) are material to a company’s sustainability and competitive advantage. Integrating those considerations into the investment process — whether you’re an investment manager selecting securities or an asset owner selecting an investment manager — could reduce risk and potentially improve returns over time. But it takes patience and robust research to understand what is material over the long term.
Passive management typically does not integrate ESG factors, and yet we believe these considerations are more important than ever to “getting it right” for the investors we serve. But getting it right depends as much on the investor as it does on the investment manager. Investors’ time tolerance has to align with how their investment managers make decisions within their portfolios, or the resulting misalignment could damage both expectations and outcomes. For example, portfolio turnover is an important consideration in aligning investor horizons and manager decision making. When investors see an active manager with low portfolio turnover (i.e., a longer-term focus), they can better understand why that manager would need a full market cycle to generate alpha.
The work we do as an industry to improve the misalignment between investor time horizons and investment manager decision making is really about improving trust. Because ultimately investors need to trust a manager’s skill long enough to allow it to work.
Carol W. Geremia is President of MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. Co-Head of Global Distribution.
Columbia Threadneedle has appointed Michelle Scrimgeour as chief executive officer, Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) and CEO of Threadneedle Asset Management Limited.
She will also join the executive leadership team of Ameriprise Financial, Columbia Threadneedle being the global asset management group of Ameriprise Financial.
Scrimgeour joins from M&G Investments, where she holds currently the roles of chief risk officer and director of M&G Group Limited.
Prior to joining M&G, she worked at BlackRock where she was a member of the European executive committee which led the firm’s $1trn EMEA business and oversaw the integration of BlackRock and BGI in London.
Formerly, she has also been chief operating officer for international fixed income; global head of Fixed Income Product; head of Alternative Investments and held senior roles in the quantitative equity and transition management businesses of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers and Mercury Asset Management (now known as BlackRock).
Commenting the appointment, Ted Truscott, global CEO of Columbia Threadneedle, said: “Michelle joins Columbia Threadneedle at an exciting time as we further build our global business and continue to focus on delivering successful investment outcomes and solutions for our clients.”
As of 30 September 2016, Columbia Threadneedle managed €416bn in assets.