In late February, President Trump promoted trade policy adviser Peter Navarro to assistant to the President. As a trade policy adviser, Mr. Navarro reported directly to White House Economic Adviser Gary Cohn. It is well known that Mr. Navarro (a Harvard-trained economist who wrote a book titled Death by China) has very protectionist ideals in regards to trade, while Mr. Cohn (the former President of Goldman Sachs) is a proponent of free trade. Effectively, Mr. Cohn served as a buffer between Mr. Navarro and President Trump. However, once Mr. Navarro was placed in a position where he could advise the President directly, we felt that some more extreme trade policies were on the horizon.
In less than a month, Mr. Navarro’s influence on President Trump was plain for all to see. Furthermore, Mr. Cohn resigned from his position following his futile attempt to convince President Trump not to go through with the tariffs. The equity markets suffered an immediate pullback on the announcement of Mr. Cohn’s resignation due to fears that the US would become even more protectionist without the influence of his globalist views. Fortunately for the market, Mr. Cohn’s replacement is CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow. Before embarking on a television career, Mr. Kudlow had been the chief economist at Bear Stearns and is known for having a very globalist view on trade. We believe the market will draw comfort from the appointment of Mr. Kudlow as Economic Adviser rather than Mr. Navarro.
This has happened before
In 2002, the administration of George W. Bush placed tariffs on steel products ranging from 15 to 30% in an effort to save the US steel industry. Back then, several steel producers had declared bankruptcy amidst a surge in steel imports. The government decided it needed to protect the companies of the steel industry for a period of three years to give time to restructure and emerge as more competitive players. Just like now, Canada and Mexico (thanks to NAFTA) were excluded from the tariffs of 2002.
Almost immediately, the European Union imposed tariffs and filed a case with the WTO. Several other countries filed similar cases and the WTO eventually ruled against the US. Following the international backlash and disappointing results for the economy, President Bush rescinded the tariffs only 18 months after their implementation.
“I don’t think it was smart policy to do it…The results were not what we anticipated in terms of its impact on the economy or jobs.” Andrew Card Jr., White House Chief of Staff under George W. Bush
Back in 2002, one of the actions considered by the EU was to place tariffs on oranges from Florida. For those not familiar with US regional politics, Florida is considered to be a swing state and President Bush won the state (and the overall election) by the narrowest of margins in 2000. The EU does not blindly select products on which to place tariffs; it wisely chooses products produced in politically sensitive states.
This time around, the EU is targeting Harley Davidson, which has manufacturing plants in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states that were important to Trump’s victory. Furthermore, Wisconsin is the home state of Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Another product being targeted is Kentucky Bourbon which is made in the home state of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The immediate economic impact seems mild but might only be the tip of the iceberg.
To be fair, steel and aluminum represent less than 2% of the country’s imports. Considering solely these two products, the overall impact to global trade should be modest. Unfortunately, these tariffs are not occurring in a vacuum and they might only be the tip of the iceberg as we await the outcome of the pending Section 301 investigation.
The investigation is focused on determining whether China’s actions relating to intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology discriminate against the US. The White House has signaled that there could be an announcement in regards to the investigation within a few weeks. Media reports are already speculating that the White House is considering imposing several new tariffs on $60 billion of Chinese products due to disagreements on intellectual property rights.
In fact, indirect actions against China may have already started. President Trump recently ordered Broadcom to “immediately and permanently abandon” the acquisition of Qualcomm for reasons of national security. The government did not disclose the details of why it is in the interest of national security for Qualcomm to stay independent, but Wall Street analysts are speculating that there was a fear that Broadcom would cut the R&D budget at Qualcomm, allowing Chinese telecommunication equipment company Huawei take the lead in the development of 5G wireless technology.
The 2018 season of the Longines Global Champions Tour is about to start. Spread over four days, the magical destination of Mexico City will welcome the world’s best horses and riders to the stunning Campo Marte grass arena for what promises to be an electric season opener.
Between march 22nd and March 25th, top riders will compete in Mexico before continuing the tour in Miami, Shanghai, Madrid, Hamburg, St Tropez, Cannes, Cascais, Monaco, Paris, Chantilly, Berlin, Londron, Valkenswaard, Rome, Doha, and Prague. The prizes top over 40 million euros, a new record.
The Mexico program with 1.165.380 in prizes along with each Longines Global Champions Tour and GCL event can be separated into two categories – CSI5* and CSI2* classes. The CSI5* is the top level competition, where the top ranked riders in the world will compete for the highest prize money, over the biggest fences – up to 1.60m which is the highest in the sport. The CSI2* classes are slightly smaller in height, and offer opportunities for many local athletes as well as international rising stars.
All the CSI5* rounds will be streamed live via our website featuring exclusive studio interviews, expert commentary and of course all the action from the arena.
Last year over 20,000 fans watched as the world’s best battled it out for top honours at the spectacular debut of Mexico City, with the grassy picture perfect arena of Campo Marte the stunning setting for the first even of the season. With the top riders in the world hungry to get the season started and lay down an early gauntlet for the 2018 Champion of Champions title, the event promises to be full of fierce rivalry, top entertainment and world-class sport.
On April 12th and 13th Funds Society will host its fifth Investments & Golf Summit 2018. Sponsors include Janus Henderson Investors, RWC Partners, Thornburg Investment Management, Vontobel Asset Management, GAM Investments and AXA Investment Managers. The event will take place at the Blue Monster in Trump National Doral Club Golf, host of the prestigious PGA TOUR events for the past 55 years.
On April 12th, at the Investment day, sponsored also by Schroders Investment Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and MFS Investment Management, participants will be able to take the opportunity to discuss about Global Markets as well as the latest portfolio management strategies and investment ideas from top-performing Asset Managers from the nine sponsors, such as Columbia Threadneedle Investments’ Mark Heslop.
Global Small Caps
Mark Heslop joined Columbia Threadneedle Investments in 2008 as a smaller companies analyst in the European equities team. He manages the Threadneedle (Lux) Pan European Small Cap Opportunities, the Threadneedle European Smaller Companies Fund and the Threadneedle (Lux) Global Smaller Companies Fund. Before joining the company, he spent nine years as an analyst with Citi. He began his career as an accountant and consultant at PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
The Global Smaller Companies Portfolio seeks to achieve capital appreciation by investing principally in the equity securities of Global Smaller Companies. It invests at least two thirds of its assets in shares of smaller companies worldwide, typically no bigger than the largest company included in the MSCI World Small Cap Index. The Fund invests in what the manager believes to be the most attractive smaller companies investment opportunities globally, providing access to a portfolio of well researched companies from around the globe, with country, sector and industry diversification. It gives access to an investment process with a ‘quality growth’ approach, managed by a team that have broad experience of different market conditions. “Smaller companies can be a source of long-term growth: seeking the industry leaders of tomorrow”, he states.
To learn more about the Investments & Golf Summit, follow this link.
In the midst of market volatility, companies have been increasing their stock repurchase programs, providing unprecedented support for investors. Neil Kearns, Head of the Corporate Operations department of the Securities Division at Goldman Sachs, explains in an interview why 2018 is about to set a new share repurchase record.
Your department helps companies authorize and execute stock repurchase programs, what kind of activity are you seeing at your trading desk?
In the first two weeks of February, we recorded the most active period in the history of our trading desk, with executions (theoretical dollars spent) that increased 4.5 times our 2017 average. Authorizations to repurchase shares have increased by 100 % during the same period. To put this in perspective, it is the fastest start to the year in terms of repurchase authorizations. In fact, this indicates that we are likely to see the highest level of share buyback activity during 2018.
What are the factors that drive activity?
Certainly, the US tax reform and the corporate repatriation of cash that companies have outside the country are significant catalysts. When we analyze the last period of tax exemptions in 2004, for example, we see that the execution of repurchases of the S & P 500 increased by 84% that year and by 58% the next.
Companies are also operating in a business climate that has improved. The economy is strengthening, corporate profits are growing and companies are generating more free cash flow. In addition, any company that is not actively allocating its cash faces the wrath of shareholders who are dissatisfied with the management of capital and the possible unwanted attention of activists.
What other parts of the market will affect the repurchase of shares?
The share repurchase activity is highly correlated with the general volatility of the market, which is why many companies used the market correction of last month as an opportunity to gain an advantage over their repurchase targets for the year. In fact, our colleagues at Goldman Sachs Research recently raised their estimates for total cash spending of the S&P 500 in 2018 to $ 2.5 trillion, with a 23% increase in share repurchases, up to 650 billion dollars, due to the tax reform and the recent market correction.
What are the implications for investors and for the market?
Buy-side investors are very focused on what companies are doing in the market, particularly in response to stock volatility. Given that companies have been the largest net buyers of US stock since 2010, there is obviously a great interest in understanding their general sentiment in light of market fluctuations and commitment to their repurchase plans.
For example, since the 2008 financial crisis, the S&P 500 companies have repurchased about 4.25 trillion dollars of their own shares, which represents approximately 17% of the current market capitalization, situated at approximately $ 24.5 trillion.
Undoubtedly, we see greater interest in corporate behavior with respect to its repurchase programs when the markets are highly volatile. Based on both the pace of repurchase announcements and the actual repurchase activity, investors can take comfort in the fact that stock repurchase programs are very much alive.
Vanguard has listed three new UCITS ETFs on the Mexican market. Currently there are 68 Vanguard ETFs in the Mexican Global Market, known as SIC.
The new ETFs, with fees of 0.09%, 0.19%, and 0.29%, are:
Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF – it looks to replicate the returns of the UK market
Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF – it is focused on tracking the returns of medium-to-large cap Japanese firms
Vanguard FTSE-All Word High Dividend Yield – it tracks the returns generated by the index of medium-to-large cap emerging and developed market companies that pay high dividends
Juan Hernández, Vanguard Mexico Country Head, said: ‘We are pleased to list our Ucits ETFs on the Mexican Stock Exchange, offering Mexican investors additional opportunities to create a balanced portfolio that meets their investment goals. We are committed to providing durable and effective solutions to Mexican investors, helping them achieve success in their investments.’
The ETFs grant exposure specific international themes that are not offered among its current US-domiciled ETF range. According to the firm, the UK and Japan ETFs offer exposure to two of the world’s most developed countries while the High Dividend Yield ETF combines a diversified stock portfolio with high income, at a competitive price.
Franklin Templeton Investments announced the opening of a new office in Santiago, Chile, to support the sales and client service needs in the country. The firm has also appointed Gonzalo Ramírez Correa as vice president, Sales. Based in the firm’s new Santiago office, he will work to develop tailored solutions for clients in Chile, leveraging the capabilities of Franklin Templeton’s various investment groups. He will report to Sergio Guerrien, director and country manager for South America ex-Brazil, who will oversee the Chile operation.
“We are very delighted that Gonzalo has joined our team in this period of growth in the Chilean market,” said Guerrien. “With the opening of this new office in Santiago, we are committed to strengthening our capabilities in the South American region as our clients look to us to solve their needs for specific investment outcomes while leveraging the comprehensive resources and broad expertise of Franklin Templeton.”
Ramírez Correa brings with him over 10 years of industry experience. Prior to joining Franklin Templeton, he was director of business development for Legg Mason Global Asset Management, focused on sales and based in Santiago. Before joining Legg Mason in 2015, he was an account manager and investment sales specialist for Latin America for Thomson Reuters. Earlier in his career, Ramírez Correa was with HMC Capital in institutional sales, where he was responsible for business relationships.
Franklin Templeton has been serving a wide array of local institutional investors, pension funds, private banks, retail distributors, mutual funds, insurance companies and family offices in Chile since 1995 and is among the top mutual fund providers to the Chilean pension system.
Franklin Templeton has been present in Latin America for over 20 years. The company opened its first office in the region in 1995, and today has a presence in Santiago, Buenos Aires, Bogota, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Montevideo and Mexico City.
Uruguay has started the year with a new law against money laundering, a regulation that brings together all the provisions that were previously dispersed in different legal instruments. The reform places the country within international standards, in a global context of ever stricter regulations.
According to the new law, approved towards the end of 2017, tax offenses are considered predicate offences to money laundering, which entails a criminal process. Lawyers and accountants must report suspicious transactions, as well as banks, financial advisors, real estate agents, auctioneers, civil associations, casinos, foundations, political parties and NGOs.
After only a few months trajectory, the reform still raises a series of questions and doubts on the part of the taxpayers. What changes is this regulation generating in the Uruguayan financial industry? “The Uruguayan financial industry acquires the new requirement of ‘know your client’. From now on, tax compliance is mandatory,” explains Marcelo Gutiérrez, Managing Partner for Invertax.
“This change is not only occurring in Uruguay, but in many other countries, and is part of the new reality: more transparency, more information exchange. It was under discussion for a long time, but tax evasion is very difficult to support as a moral argument. The discussion on whether governments make good use or misuse of these resources is a different matter,” adds the expert on tax issues.
At Invertax they believe that the Uruguayan financial industry will encounter some difficulties: “As in the rest of the world, and with the end of banking secrecy, the offshore industry in Uruguay is on its way out. At present, only the United States offers traditional offshore services,” says Gutiérrez, Uruguay’s representative at the International Fiscal Association.
The new restrictions raise fears of a decrease in foreign investment, something that Marcelo Gutiérrez plays down: “It depends on what type of investment we are talking about, if we refer to Real Estate in Punta del Este, this new requirement will complicate things for many of the ’traditional’ investors. However, direct foreign investment, such as the pulp mills and other important ones already planned, will not be affected.”
During the sixth edition of the Morningstar Awards in Mexico, at the W Hotel in Mexico City, representatives of the best asset managers of the country gathered to recognize the three best firms and the six best funds of the year. At the event, Alejandro Ritch, Regional Director of Morningstar for Latin America, highlighted the positive transformation that is taking place in the sector.
He also noted that there is still a significant concentration in the sector: with 69% of the assets under management in the hands of the five leading firms. The executive also pointed to the growth of passive strategies and the consequences this has had on the fund market, mentioning that “the competition that the ETFs have created is real and the managers have lowered their commissions in response to this.”
In the category of Best Funds the winners were:
Short term debt Operadora Mifel
Medium term debt, Actinver
Long term debt, Intercam Fondos
Mixed fund, Principal
Global equities, Operadora de fondos Banamex (recently acquired by BlackRock)
On April 12th and 13th Funds Society will host its fifth Investments & Golf Summit 2018. Sponsors include Janus Henderson Investors, RWC Partners, Thornburg Investment Management, Vontobel Asset Management, GAM Investments and AXA Investment Managers. The event will take place at the Blue Monster in Trump National Doral Club Golf, host of the prestigious PGA TOUR events for the past 55 years.
On April 12th, at the Investment day, sponsored also by Schroders Investment Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and MFS Investment Management, participants will be able to take the opportunity to discuss about Global Markets as well as the latest portfolio management strategies and investment ideas from top-performing Asset Managers from the nine sponsors, such as Janus Henderson‘s Charlie Awdry.
Chinese Equities
Charlie Awdry will talk Chinese equities on the first day of the event. He will focus on what could investors expect for the year, and where he believes best opportunities are.
Awdry is an Investment Manager for the Chinese Equities strategy, a position he has held since 2011. Charlie joined the firm as part of Henderson’s acquisition of Gartmore in 2011. He started with Gartmore in 2001. After a period of working in Hong Kong from 2005 to 2006, he returned to London and became the China fund manager at Gartmore in 2006. Charlie graduated with honours, first class from the University of Bristol with a bachelor’s degree in geography. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and has 17 years of financial industry experience and more than a decade of experience as lead manager of China equities portfolios.
For more information on the Investments & Golf Summit 2018, follow this link.
Rodolfo Castilla returned to Uruguay less than a year ago, after working for several years as Global Head of Wealth Management Products and Platforms for Citi’s Consumer Bank in New York. It’s obvious that he feels at home in the lands of the River Plate, as Castilla already experienced a professionally intense stage in Montevideo, heading the International Personal Banking business (IPB US) for this same division for the Southern Cone from the Uruguayan capital since 2008.
In view of the winds of change shaking that region, the challenge facing Castilla as Head for the Wealth Management business of the Consumer Bank for LatAm’s Southern Cone, based in Citi IPB US’ offices in Uruguay, will not be any smaller. Citi’s Director met with Funds Society to discuss the future of the industry.
In the few months that you have been in Montevideo, how have you found the situation in Uruguay after five years’ absence?
My first thought is that, in terms of sales practices and the platforms that we and our competitors use, I found it relatively similar to what I left five years ago, before going to New York. And I think that all players face the risk of losing competitiveness because there are three things that are already happening in more developed markets, such as the United States or even in Asia, a region that was similar to Latin America in this dimension. Over there, business models are changing, as is the value proposition in anticipation of these changes, which, in general, I have seen happening here somewhat more slowly.
In my own personal opinion, there are three major drivers happening in our industry due to which we have the responsibility to rethink our value strategy in order to better serve our clients.
The first one is regulatory evolution at a global level, with two well defined aspects in the case of Consumer Wealth Management. The first is transparency, in portfolios as well as in investment decisions and, above all, in the costs of advising and transactionality. The example that I like to use is the difference in the allocation of portfolios for the US domestic market, where passive products have been widely surpassing asset flows very consistently in recent years. And if we look at our region, the allocation of passive products is much lower in comparison, which can be explained by many factors such as the average level of sophistication of the clients, and of bankers and advisers as well, since mathematically there are times when they are not optimizing risk / return for the client, based on the costs incurred.
That is why I think that when these regulations oriented towards total transparency in returns, risk, and costs are approved and impact our region, (and in my opinion, following the trend in other regions such as Europe, the question is when, and not if, it will happen) I believe that there are many products present today in portfolios that will no longer be the first choice, forcing the entire industry to rethink and articulate a different value proposition.
The second aspect is what is happening with the DOL in the United States for retirement accounts, referred to the concept of “Fiduciary Standard”.In general, our industry currently works broadly with a suitability standard: our obligation is that the product / portfolio that we advise a client on, appropriately corresponds with the client’s risk profile. And that is a valid model which for many years drove our industry, whose controls are also automated in most of the current platforms at the level of each transaction and of the total portfolio.
The potential new standard, a fiduciary one, proposes an evolution that, in my opinion, is more than conceptually correct, where we will have to demonstrate not only alignment with the risk profile, but also be able to demonstrate at all times that we are making the best decision for a client. So when, for example, in order to express a market view, we are facing three similar products – a basket of individual bonds, an active bond fund, or a bond ETF -, we will not only have to check whether it corresponds to the risk profile, but we’ll also have to know why we choose one option or another, including the cost / benefit ratio. Something that, again in my opinion, is absolutely healthy, since it’s in line with what we always strive for in Citi: looking for the best solution for our clients.
Are clients in Latin America really going to demand that?
I believe that those players who opt for investing in educating clients on these issues of costs, performance, risks … that we will gain an important part of the market in the future, since this is an irreversible global trend. In my opinion, this is a model that may impact the short-term financial margin, but which is undoubtedly the right one, and that whoever manages to carry out a value proposal with these elements will gain volume share because the client will eventually realize the difference in value.
And now we move on to the second driver of change, global and also regional, which has to do with the Tax Amnesties that are happening in Latin American countries. When you think of Argentina, you also think of Brazil, and on what lies ahead for Peru and on what already happened in Chile, it is a regional context but immersed in a search for transparency that is also global. Our industry is going to be even more transparent than it is today, both towards clients and Institutions, which again is very positive.
As an example of the largest offshore market in the Southern Cone, Argentina, private studies show that a large majority of Argentine savings are abroad, and we have just witnessed the largest tax amnesty in that country’s modern history. That also changes the market because this significant volume of assets adds a third player: client, banker and now the local accountant. And there is an element in the conversation that is the tax optimization of the investment strategy, very important in many markets and with different models for the different players regarding the permitted level of direct tax advice. The obvious conclusion is that we must all have a varied offer of tax efficient products in our value proposition.
Many players in the industry believe that, whatever the regulatory evolution, the weight of the local market will increase anyway: What is your opinion on that?
It will inevitably increase the local market, because governments are creating the conditions for the development of local capital markets, very healthy and also important to generate new attractive investment opportunities for clients. In Argentina’s case, I believe that there will be an offshore and onshore mix that will enhance the value proposal. Even more so with these changes; in my opinion I believe more than ever that we must upgrade the value proposal, that in Citi’s case we open an institutional discussion based on proprietary Asset Allocation models, where there is a global investment committee sharing decision making with analysts in 4 continents, and which following all this decision making, ends in an offer with certain asset classes that optimize the return / risk / cost ratio, after which we just have to follow with the security selection of products. At Citi, we are now in a position to offer all the elements of this value chain.
I point out the difference because, for many years, our industry talked directly about products (this fund or this bonus), and that is no longer an optimal value proposition for the client. It has been widely demonstrated that individual selection of the product is 20 or 30% of the final performance, well below the correct selection of asset classes, regions, sectors, etc…
Along these lines, I think we should invest in Technology, as is already done in Asia and part of the US domestic market. We should create more intuitive platforms that allow for guiding the conversation towards understanding and solving the financial objectives of the client, instead of towards buying or selling products.
In Citi’s case in other regions, we have invested in one of those platforms that allow us to have several portfolios, one per client’s objective, each one with its risk profile and suitability controls. For example: “This is the money for my children’s university, I want to be conservative with this. And this is for my retirement, I will need it in 20 years, and I also have this 10% with which I can be more aggressive because I don’t need it in the short term and can assume greater risk”. Then, the platform allows you to build an asset location for each of these life goals, in a very intuitive way. And then comes the institutional proposal, backed by units of Due Diligence, Research, and Analysts in 4 continents calculating what the maximization of risk and return is. And, finally, it’s clearly a more efficient model also for bankers.
With these intuitive platforms, client education occurs naturally, by sitting with the client with an iPad, it is all quite simple and easy. The dialogue with the client is not based on choosing a fund or a bond but on making sure that we are fulfilling their financial objectives; that should be our common objective.
How much longer before we see this in Latin America?
While I cannot assure time-frames in Citi’s case, I can tell you that it is a global priority that is reaching our region. In the case of other important players, I do not have enough information to give my opinion about it. Our technological model at Citi is designed to complement the banker, although we think that it will never replace the banker because face to face is important, and that trust, relationship, and understanding the model and the family balance sheet will never be able to be replaced by an algorithm in certain market segments.
Are we already talking about a near- horizon in Latin America, is it possible to talk about what will happen within a ten-year period?
I reaffirm my opinion: I believe that it will be a transparent business where clients will know exactly what their objectives are, their returns, the risks assumed, what they are charged and why they are charged, in a much simpler and more intuitive way than at present.
It will be very easy to demonstrate whether the banker or adviser is doing things right or not, any client regardless of their sophistication will be able to understand that, and that will result in that only those of us who improve our value proposition will be able to maintain a leadership position.
There will be flows between onshore and offshore, with a much greater onshore allocation, because I believe in the region and believe in local markets. And if macroeconomic conditions improve, the enormous wealth generation of our countries can be channeled, instead of being consumed or absorbed by inflation. Latin America, and the Southern Cone in particular, is an area with enormous growth potential in the coming years, so whoever adjusts the value proposition faster in order to do the best for their clients, will gain a greater share of this growth.