Andrea Orcel Appointed Santander Group CEO

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Andrea Orcel, nuevo consejero delegado de Santander
Foto cedidaAndrea Orcel, Ana Patricia Botín and José Antonio Álvarez . Andrea Orcel Appointed Santander Group CEO

Further to the announcement of 25 June 2018 which confirmed Rodrigo Echenique’s decision to retire from his role as Executive Vice Chairman of the Group and Chairman of Banco Santander Spain at the end of 2018, the Board of Directors of Banco Santander announced that José Antonio Álvarez will succeed Echenique as Vice Chairman of the Group and Chairman of Santander Spain. Following this appointment Álvarez and Bruce Carnegie-Brown will be the Group’s two Vice Chairmen, with Álvarez being the only one with an executive role.

Furthermore, following an intensive selection process carried out with the support of external advisers, the Board of Directors has decided that José Antonio Álvarez will be succeeded as CEO of the Group by Andrea Orcel, subject to regulatory approval. Orcel is currently member of UBS Group’s executive committee and brings a wealth of experience and expertise, having worked closely with Santander for almost two decades.

These appointments are expected to take effect in early 2019 following regulatory approvals.

Ana Botín, Executive Chairman of Banco Santander, said: “Rodrigo Echenique has been my most trusted advisor and played a fundamental role within the Board and as an Executive Chairman of Santander Spain. I now look forward to José Antonio Álvarez assuming these key strategic and executive responsibilities. The Board and I want to express our thanks and deep appreciation for Rodrigo´s commitment and great added value to Santander over the past 30 years and look forward to his continued support from his non-executive board role. We wish him and his family the best in his retirement from his executive roles. I very much look forward to continuing to work with José Antonio as a trusted partner, as we have done over the past four years. He has been critical to the successful execution and delivery of our plans and is a great role model for everything we want the Santander culture to be. As Executive Chairman of Santander Spain, he will complete the Banco Popular integration, as well as support and represent the bank and me personally on strategic decisions through his executive committee and board roles. Andrea Orcel’s international experience and strategic expertise further strengthen our existing team, helping ensure we continue delivering on our current strategy as we have for the past four years. He brings a deep understanding of retail and commercial banking, as well as a strong track record in managing diverse teams across Europe and the Americas in a collaborative way. This will help us achieve our ambition to build the best retail and commercial bank, as well as a global digital platform, whilst preserving our proven subsidiary model.

During the last four years, Santander has put in place a new management team both at the Group level and in the main markets, and launched a strategy based on growing loyal customers and embedding a common culture with its 200,000 employees. This has allowed the bank to become one of the best-rated in the industry for customer service in the majority of its core markets.

Santander launched its strategic plan in October 2015, and expects to deliver on all the objectives it set. By the end of 2018, the bank expects to have almost doubled the number of digital customers it serves, from 16 million in 2016 to 30 million, while the number of loyal customers has increased by 40% to 19.1 million. During the same period, Santander has strengthened its capital base significantly – adding over €16 billion euros to its CET1 to 10.8% at Q2 2018, while also increasing the cash dividend per share by 132%.

In early 2019, Banco Santander will publish its new medium-term strategic plan. The updated plan will be based on the same pillars which have guided the bank over the past three years: a relentless focus on customer loyalty, and a goal to become the best retail and commercial bank in the markets in which we operate, whilst building an integrated digital platform across the Group.

Botin continued, “We have a unique and strong base of 140 million customers across both developed and high-growth markets. We are building upon this solid foundation by creating an open financial services platform that brings the best products, services and technology to our customers. We are now strengthening the top team, with a goal of accelerating the execution of these plans, sharing the best practises and innovations across the Group for the benefit of all of our businesses and countries.”

José Antonio Álvarez said: “I am very excited to take over the Chairmanship of the best bank in Spain. We face many important challenges including the integration of Santander and Popular networks, and especially to make Santander in Spain, the best in the entire Group.”

Andrea Orcel said: “I am exceptionally proud and excited to be joining Santander as CEO and working with Ana, José Antonio and all of the organisation as we continue to ensure Santander excels. My immediate priority is to meet as many of my new colleagues as possible, and gain a new perspective on Santander from them. The financial services’ sector cultural and business transformation continues at an accelerated pace with increasing headwinds and disruption. Rather than fight those challenges, winning organizations embrace them, are energized by them and turn them to their advantage to catapult themselves forward building long lasting competitive advantage. I have no doubt that with us all working together to make the most of Santander’s strong culture, brand and global franchise, we will continue to be one of those winning organizations.”

These changes continue the trend of the last few years of building a more diverse and international team and Board. With new CEOs in our key markets of Mexico, Brazil, the UK, US and Spain, the Group´s management today better reflects the diversity of its footprint. In the Corporate Centre, similarly, the leadership team includes almost fifty percent internationally-experienced executives, including talent from Germany, Italy, the UK and the US.

The Board of Directors of Banco Santander will be composed of 15 members, of which the majority, eight, are independent. Santander’s board has gender diversity (more than a third are women), multiple nationalities (American, Brazilian, British, Italian, Mexican and Spanish) and broad sector representation (financial, distribution, technology, infrastructure or the university).

Andrea Orcel has been appointed by the Board of Directors by co-option to replace Juan Miguel Villar Mir’s seat on the Board of Directors. Villar Mir has presented his desire to leave the Board as his tenure expires. The Board wishes to express its appreciation for his contribution and dedication during his years as a director.
 

Greece’s Bailout Odyssey Comes to an End: What Happens Now?

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La odisea de Grecia con el rescate financiero llega a su fin: ¿y ahora qué?
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Bernhard_Staerck. Greece’s Bailout Odyssey Comes to an End: What Happens Now?

 

Greece officially exits the bailout program. The Hellenic country has put an end to eight years of financial bailout that has meant 386 billion Euros in loans, an increase in its debt in order to be able to face its creditors, a restructuring of its debt, and a period of policies of cuts for the country. But what can investors expect from Greece now?

The country’s macroeconomic data began to be positive in 2016 and, thanks to the good performance of its exports, last year its economy grew by 1.4%. “Greek politics and economy have stabilized in recent years. There are still many structural challenges, but both sides want to achieve a positive outcome and move away from the era of official assistance programs in the peripheral Euro-zone,” commented sources from Deutsche Bank’s analysis department.

 

In fact, Greece has experienced positive growth every quarter since 2017, as well as an increase in confidence in its economy. “From a structural perspective, the improvement of the economy has not translated into an increase in domestic demand, which has fallen during these years. Wages fell in the last decade, but prices did not adjust so much, which pushed domestic demand down but did not really improve competitiveness. This suggests that market reforms will be as, or more important than, labor market reforms in the coming years,” comment those same sources from the German banking institution.

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The Greek country still faces many challenges along the way. “Greece has to start considering regulated access to the bond market, a standardization illustrated by the sharp drop in interest rates in recent years. It should be noted that although the financing needs for 2022 are extremely low, the debt’s long-term sustainability is as yet unsecured,” explains Guillaume Rigeade, Fund Manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

 

The debt burden remains close to 190% of GDP and, starting in 2035, Greece’s financing needs will be once again substantial. According to Rigeade, this explains why “interest rates for Greek bonds continue to be the highest offered by sovereign debt in the Euro-zone.”

According to Joseph Mouawad, Manager at Carmignac, more than the exit itself, what matters most is the situation in which Greece exits the bail-out program. “Greece has a large primary surplus without large debt repayments in the short and medium term, a large cash cushion of 20 billion Euros, a competitive economy as a result of many reforms, and a painful internal devaluation and most importantly, growth is again in positive territory and is heading towards 3%,” Mouawad points out.

 

The asset management company is optimistic, acknowledging that they are still long-term investors in Greece. “We are seeking a wave of qualification updates that started with a 2-tier update from Fitch just a few weeks ago,” says the Carmignac manager.

 

From Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT)

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De la flexibilización cuantitativa (QE) al ajuste cuantitativo (QT)
Courtesy photo. From Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT)

This month of September is the tenth anniversary of the fall of Lehman Brothers, which was back then the fourth largest bank in the USA, and it initiated the worst global financial crisis in recent decades. The hyper-debt was not able to support the existing economic model, and the central banks, in a coordinated action, came to the rescue by applying unconventional policies known as Quantitative Easing, which is based on asset purchasing programmes that help inject liquidity into the market. The objective was to reactivate the flow of credit in the economy by artificially keeping the interest rates low (ZIRP, zero interest rate policy) or in negative figures (NIRP, negative interest rate policy).

The main milestones reached were the deleverage of the private sector and a financial system that had to assume stricter regulations and frequent controls in adverse scenarios (stress tests), as well as achieve further solvency by means of higher capital ratios. All of this despite the regulatory cost making them less profitable. However, the macroeconomic variables are being normalised in the main economies. The IMF, in its latest publication of the World Economic Outlook, expects an overall growth of 3.9%, for both 2018 and 2019.

At this stage, when it seems like we are overcoming the financial crisis and economic depression and the world economy is expanding, the main central banks are getting ready to reverse their balance sheet and start down a path to the normalisation of the monetary policy. This process is known as Quantitative Tightening, and it is the process of reverting Quantitative Easing. The Federal Reserve started this process in November 2017, and it has already reduced the balance in 237.9 Billion USD. The European Central Bank will reduce the monthly rate of net purchases of assets to 15,000 million euros until late December 2018 and it foresees its cessation from then on.

According to Bloomberg data, in the ten-year period between 2008 and 2017, all central banks have trebled their balance sheet, which has involved an injection of 14,245.6 Billion USD. This expansive policy has flooded the market with liquidity and, undoubtedly, helped raise the price of assets. This in turn has led to the so-called portfolio effect, by means of which the central bank’s purchase of lower risk assets (government bonds, IG credit, covered bonds) has encouraged investors to purchase higher risk bonds, whether due to the lack of bonds in this segment or due to seeking a higher performance.

It is only natural that investors are concerned about knowing what will happen when all this liquidity is drained and the interest rates rise (the FED, immersed in this process, has increased its reference rate from 0.25 to 2% since December 2015). There is certainly a risk of the prices of assets dropping during this reversal process. There is currently a particular need for the central banks to measure correctly the different risks at a macroeconomic (especially the predictions of inflation), financial and geopolitical level, so the monetary normalisation can be carried out without any hiccups. In fact, the markets are also more volatile this year than in 2017. The price war or the Turkish crisis played a significant role, but surely so did the QT, as the better performance of the US government bonds and the appreciation of the dollar have contributed to the prices of emerging market bonds, for example.

In this context, who can be the big winners? The money market investors, who will be able to invest at better interest rates; for example: the three-month treasury bills in the USA have gone from offering an interest rate below 1% just a year ago to 2.13% today.

What are the major corporate pension plans doing to protect themselves from the rise of interest rates or a greater volatility? They are incorporating real assets that generate recurring income, such as real state, or investing in infrastructure. Many already consider them as the new bonds, which improve the performance and reduce the global risk of the portfolios.

Column by Josep Maria Pon, Head of Fixed Income at Crèdit Andorrà Asset Management. Crèdit Andorrà Financial Group Research.

BlackRock Completes Acquisition of Citi’s Mexican Asset Management Business

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BlackRock concreta la adquisición del negocio de administración de activos de Citibanamex
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: NASA. BlackRock Completes Acquisition of Citi's Mexican Asset Management Business

BlackRock has completed its acquisition of Citibanamex’s asset management business. Citibanamex is a subsidiary of Citigroup. The transaction, which has received all necessary approvals from Mexican regulatory entities, involves fixed income, equity, and multi-asset funds holding approximately 34 billion dollars in AUM.

Prior to the acquisition, BlackRock’s business in Mexico, which will continue to be led by Samantha Ricciardi, focused primarily on offering international investment and risk management products and services to institutional clients, while Citibanamex Asset Management focused primarily on the retail segment.

This acquisition reaffirms BlackRock’s conviction in Mexico’s long-term growth potential and positions BlackRock to help more Mexicans build better financial futures. With 10 years of experience in the Mexican market, BlackRock will now offer a full range of local and international investment solutions for clients there. BlackRock’s presence in Latin America and Iberia has now grown to approximately 275 professionals across eight offices with $184 billion in assets managed on behalf of clients in the region.

Armando Senra, Head of the Latin America & Iberia region for BlackRock, said: “This transaction is transformative for BlackRock and the asset management industry in Mexico and the region. As an independent asset manager with local and global capabilities, BlackRock brings Mexican clients unparalleled investment solutions backed by our world-class risk management technology.”

The transaction is part of Citi’s emphasis on expanding access to best-in-class investment products, rather than on manufacturing proprietary asset management products. Ernesto Torres Cantu, CEO of Citibanamex, said: “BlackRock and Citibanamex are enhancing their longstanding institutional relationship and will offer, through a distribution agreement, BlackRock investment products to Citibanamex’s 21 million banking clients in its network of 1,500 branches in Mexico. Citibanamex clients can invest as little as 1,000 pesos (approximately $50 dollars) in products backed by BlackRock’s world-class investment and risk management platform.”

Janus Henderson Investors Hires Paul Brito As Director of Sales, US Offshore

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Janus Henderson Investors ficha a Paul Brito como director de ventas offshore
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainCourtesy photo. Janus Henderson Investors Hires Paul Brito As Director of Sales, US Offshore

Paul Brito has been appointed as the new Director of Sales, for US Offshore with Janus Henderson Investors. He will be based in Miami, Florida, with immediate effect. 

Janus Henderson Investors has a strong commitment to the US Offshore market, with approximately €6.1 billion assets under management in the Iberian & Latin American region combined. 

Paul will report to Ignacio de la Maza, Head of Continental Europe, Wholesale & Latin America and he will be responsible for strengthening and developing US Offshore and Latin American distribution.

Paul makes a welcome new addition to the team, and brings the headcount to total of nine sales people for the Iberia, US Offshore & Latin America region.

Fluent in English, Spanish and Portuguese, Paul has been in financial services for more than twelve years. Most recently he was at MFS Investment Management, where he worked for almost ten years, his last role was Distribution Director. He has a bachelor’s degree from Stonehill College, Massachusetts. 

Commenting on the appointment, Ignacio de la Maza, said, “Paul is a great addition to the team. He brings an exceptional skill set of asset management and the US Offshore market. Paul has established and developed strategic partnerships, which combined with his deep understanding of client investment priorities; means Janus Henderson Investors will be able to increase our service and dedication to our clients in the US offshore market.”

 

Loomis Sayles Appoints Succesors for the Global Fixed Income and Senior Loan Teams

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Lynda Schweitzer y Scott Service liderarán el equipo de renta fija global de Loomis Sayles
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPatricksommer. Loomis Sayles Appoints Succesors for the Global Fixed Income and Senior Loan Teams

 Loomis, Sayles & Company, an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, announced that Kenneth Buntrock, portfolio manager and co-team leader of the global fixed income team, will retire in March 2019 after 21 years with the company. Kevin Perry, portfolio manager on the senior loan team, will retire in March 2019 after 17 years with the company and 37 years in the industry.

In preparation for Ken’s retirement, longstanding portfolio managers Lynda Schweitzer and Scott Service will assume leadership roles effective immediately, joining David Rolley as co-team leaders, while all senior loan portfolios will continue to be co-managed by portfolio managers John Bell and Michael Klawitter, who have been members of the team for 17 and 16 years, respectively.

Kevin Charleston, chief executive officer said of Buntrock retirement: “We are grateful to Ken for more than 20 years of service and leadership at Loomis Sayles. His dedication is reflected within the success and growth of the Loomis Sayles global bond capabilities over the past two decades, and we wish him the best in retirement.” Charleston said of Perry: “Kevin has embodied Loomis Sayles’ values of collaboration, humility and prudent risk-taking every day since he and John joined us in 2001. Kevin and John are considered pioneers in the bank loan market and their efforts have led to clients entrusting us with the management of more than $10 billion in bank loan assets. We are grateful for Kevin’s contributions to our firm, and to bank loan investing, and wish him the best in retirement.”

Until their retirement date, both executives will continue in his leadership and portfolio management roles to ensure a seamless transition and provide continuity for clients.

Regulation, Monetary Normalization, Diversification, and More Cautious Investors: The Legacy of a Crisis

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Regulación, normalización monetaria, diversificación e inversores más cautos: la herencia de una crisis
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Nile. Regulation, Monetary Normalization, Diversification, and More Cautious Investors: The Legacy of a Crisis

This past weekend marked the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers collapse, one of the most important milestones that marked the financial crisis of 2008. TwentyFour Asset Management, a boutique specialized in fixed income founded by nine employees, was born just 24 hours later and in the midst of that chaos; facing a fund industry that changed overnight.

“Over the past decade, we have witnessed an unprecedented global expansion in the role and power of central banks, whose combined balances now exceed $ 15 trillion. Yield curves are now lower and flatter than before the crisis, thanks to a combination of risk-aversion and QE. This has distorted the relationship between interest rates and inflation, and has destroyed the term premium, a sign which shows that markets have not yet normalized. In addition, we have seen a transformation in the volume and quality of capital in the global banking system, together with a radical change in the regulation of the sector,” points out Graeme Anderson, President of TwentyFour Asset Management.

Anderson recalls that, after the Lehman Brothers collapse and the outlook that they would not obtain mandates, they had to rethink their entire business model. “We said it was better to rethink everything we thought we knew about the financial markets, because this was a new chapter,” he recalls. Like him, the market and the asset management companies were never the same after September 15th, 2018.

“With each market crisis there are lessons to be learnt, and honestly, some have to be learnt twice. In 2007-2008, investors were taught the lesson of how housing prices can fall at the same time across the country and how, for better or for worse, the global financial system was interconnected. We learnt that banks were not sufficiently capitalized to support higher risk behavior or systemic risk. What many investors still have to learn is that good times don’t last forever,” points out Ed Walczak, Portfolio Manager, Vontobel Asset Management, on analyzing how things have changed after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

According to Juan Ramón Casanovas, Head of Private Portfolio Management of Bank Degroof Petercam Spain, that collapse and the international crisis caused, firstly, a new regulatory framework for financial institutions. “The great excesses committed in the past have brought radical changes in legislation. In 2010, the Wall Street reform law came into force, stress tests for financial entities began and new supervisory bodies were created. In Europe and in the rest of the world, we have experienced large concentrations and mergers of financial entities, transforming the financial system in some countries such as Spain. Bailouts with public funds have brought strong criticism. Cases of fines to banks for non-compliance have escalated. Another consequence has been the strong legislation for the marketing and purchase of new products, a sample of which is the MiFID regulation,” explains Casanovas.

This increase in legislation has meant that the global banking system seems much stronger now than it was 10 years ago. “Many regulations have been established to ensure that banks are better capitalized for their business model. For example, leveraging was significantly reduced, on the one hand, by strengthening the capital base and, on the other hand, by significantly reducing dealing on own account. In this regard, banks would probably be currently facing a comparable situation,” said Thomas Herbert and Michael Blümke, Portfolio Managers at Ethenea Independent Investors.

Beyond Regulation

The sector hasn’t only seen change in terms of regulation or of the economic environment, but also, according to Amundi Asset Management, the way in which managers assign the assets has changed as well. “From a portfolio construction perspective, we currently see three main areas of development, since not all the lessons of the crisis have resulted in real solutions. First, a broader concept of risk is considered, which is not only limited to volatility but also to liquidity. Secondly, new risk profiles are taken into account in all asset classes, and finally, the diversification strategies are improved and gain relevance,” company sources explain.

The change in the way in which management companies assign assets and compose portfolios is also due to the fact that the investor has changed. At present, investors are more cautious and therefore are more likely to change their mind when volatility looms again. “Buy and maintain” has gone from being a reliable key principle to a sad commonplace that many investors can no longer sustain.

According to Dave Lafferty, Chief Investment Strategist at Natixis IM, as the attitudes of investors have changed, so have the markets. “Because Lehman’s failure was equally a credit and liquidity crisis, investors have come to demand better protection and more liquidity in their investments. The sector has proven to be more willing to develop new products and strategies that promise to reduce volatility, manage exposure to downside or reduce correlation with falling markets,” says Lafferty.

Current Risks

Despite everything that was learnt and improved on after the crisis, management companies agree that there are still aspects to be changed and challenges to face. “The ultra-expansive policies, both monetary and fiscal, that were needed at that time in order to avoid an economic depression, have not addressed the root of the problem. They are capable, in the best of cases, of smoothing the cycle, but they have had little effect on the trend, which depends on the political reforms and on the will to carry them out. On the other hand, given that some of these extraordinary measures are still underway, they are delaying the necessary adjustment even further,” advises Fabrizio Quirighetti, Head of Multi-asset at SYZ AM.

At Schroders they wonder where these imbalances are now, in order to identify the future failings in world economy. “We discovered that there have been significant changes in the global economy, so that any imbalances are minor, but they have changed in such a way that the risks are different from those of a decade ago,” says Keith Wade, Chief Economist and Strategist at Schroders. In this regard, Wade focuses on three elements: emerging markets are still vulnerable, the current US account deficit still persists and there will be an inevitable appreciation of the Euro.

BNP Paribas Securities Services Hires Graham Ray

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BNP Paribas Securities Services ficha a Graham Ray
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainGraham Ray, Linkedin. BNP Paribas Securities Services Hires Graham Ray

BNP Paribas Securities Services has appointed Graham Ray to the newly-created role of Global Head of Sales and Relationship Management for Financial Intermediaries with immediate effect.

Ray will be responsible for driving new sales and strategic opportunities with financial intermediaries, and for deepening relationships with new and existing clients. His proven experience in helping clients with complex needs to optimise their business operations will continue to position BNP Paribas Securities Services as a strategic partner to its clients. Ray will be based in London and will report globally to Alvaro Camuñas, and locally to Patrick Hayes, Regional Head of UK, Middle East & South Africa.

Alvaro Camuñas, Global Head of Sales and Relationship Management at BNP Paribas Securities Services said: “We’re delighted to have Graham on board. His outstanding track record in our industry, product knowledge and client expertise position us well for future growth. He joins at an important time for our business, which is growing rapidly around the world.”

Ray has more than 15 years’ experience in the custody industry. He joins BNP Paribas from Deutsche Bank where he was Global Head of Investor Services, responsible for product management for an extensive portfolio of products. Prior to this, Ray worked in global operations for Northern Trust as a Division Manager, responsible for securities and alternative investment settlement operations.

Sebastián Ochagavía, Allfunds’ New Chile Country Manager

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Allfunds contrata a Sebastián Ochagavía como nuevo gerente general de Chile
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrSabastián Ochagavía, courtesy photo. Sebastián Ochagavía, Allfunds' New Chile Country Manager

Allfunds Bank, Europe’s largest open architecture fund platform, continues to expand its presence in Latin American with the appointment of Sebastián Ochagavía as the new Country Head of Chile with additional responsibility for the Allfunds business in Uruguay and Argentina.

Allfunds has been present in Chile since 2008 and has extensive plans to continue to accelerate its growth in the Region.Ochagavía will be responsible for heading up the Allfunds sales efforts in Chile, Argentina and Uruguay and will report directly to Laura Gonzalez, Head of LatAm and Iberia. Gonzalez, said: “I am very pleased to welcome Sebastián to Allfunds -I am confident he will make an immediate impact on our business. The Latin American market, particularly Chile, is extremely important to us. Sebastián will be joining an already very well-established team that has have been operating in the Region for over 10 years and so I am delighted to have his experience and insight to help grow our business.”

Previously Ochagavía was Deputy Head of Institutional Clients at Compass Group where he was in charge of the distribution of third-party products (mutual funds, ETFs and alternatives strategies) to institutional clients in Chile including Pension Funds, Insurance Companies and Local Mutual Funds companies. Before joining Compass, Ochagavía was a Business Development Associate at BlackRock for SAxB region, where he covered Institutional Clients in Chile and Peru, based in Santiago. Prior to this, he worked at Corso Inversiones, one of the largest single Family Offices in Chile, as a buy-side investment analyst. Ochagavía has a Bachelor degree in Business Administration with a concentration in finance from University of Chile. He is fluent in Spanish, English and French.
 

US Companies are at the Forefront of Another Outstanding Period of Results on a Global Scale

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Las empresas estadounidenses se sitúan a la cabeza de otra destacada temporada de resultados a escala mundial
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainFree photos. US Companies are at the Forefront of Another Outstanding Period of Results on a Global Scale

Since the beginning of the year, equities have positioned themselves as one of the most attractive assets for investors given the risk / reward ratio that it offers. Therefore, asset managers have been calibrating and searching for the best combination of US, European, and emerging market equities. According to the asset management companies, this will continue to be a fundamental piece in the portfolios for the second part of the year.

Although historically summers are a quiet period, logically there are also some exceptions, sources at DWS point out that this year “the growth of some shares, for example Facebook, has been afflicted, and defensive stocks have outperformed the behavior of the most cyclical securities. In fact, some cyclical stocks obtained poor results, while sovereign bonds barely moved.”

US equities stood out due to the good behavior of business profits which, as was to be expected, increased thanks to the fiscal reform that was already noticeable this quarter. According to Richard Turnill, Global Head of Investment Strategy at BlackRock, “the strength of corporate profits, especially in the United States, will continue until the end of the year, as the optimistic forecasts of companies show that confidence is on the rise”.

In his opinion, US Companies are at the Forefront of another outstanding period of results on a global scale. According to his analysis, firms that exceeded expectations have been rewarded with a rise in prices, even in spite of investors’ concerns about the increase in economic uncertainty, trade tensions and the appreciation of the US dollar. “Our analyses of business forecasts suggest that business confidence is on the rise, which provides us with the basis to affirm that the soundness of profits can be perpetuated in 2018 in a context characterized by the robustness of global growth,” says Turnill.
 

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In his opinion, US Companies are at the Forefront of another outstanding period of results on a global scale. According to his analysis, firms that exceeded expectations have been rewarded with a rise in prices, even in spite of investors’ concerns about the increase in economic uncertainty, trade tensions and the appreciation of the US dollar. “Our analyses of business forecasts suggest that business confidence is on the rise, which provides us with the basis to affirm that the soundness of profits can be perpetuated in 2018 in a context characterized by the robustness of global growth,” says Turnill.

But all that glitters is not gold, especially in the United States. “The downside is that American companies are seeing more pressure on the cost of raw materials and wages. There have also been quite a few companies in the United States that have pointed out the negative effects that the increase in tariffs has on them, whereas European companies have taken advantage of the opportunities that trade tension has generated,” DWS points out in its latest report.

Once again, the United States and Europe are the markets where investors and asset managers find more opportunities for equities, after the exit of flows from emerging countries due to the effect of the strength of the dollar. According to Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), the strength of the dollar must be added to the political uncertainty generated by the US administration with its trade policy. “In our opinion, investors have become excessively pessimistic about emerging markets’ assets, and a stabilization of the dollar should allow a rebound in emerging market stocks,” UBP explains in its latest report.

The entity is cautious and prefers to follow strategies that allow them to participate in equity growth through hedge funds, strategies that protect capital, and convertible bonds, avoiding direct investment in shares. “Within equities, we have expanded our underweight in Europe given the constant political fragility that is projected, and a more moderate economic growth. On the other hand, Euro-zone shares are more attractive than US equities, while offering a modest perspective of earnings growth,” he argues egarding his position towards the end of the summer.