57% of Americans say they prefer a partner who provides financial security more than “head over heels” love. The survey conducted with over a thousand mass-affluent respondents shows that this preference is true for men and women, whereas today’s youngest generation, Gen Z, is the only generation to prioritize love over money.
The report also finds that Americans are contributing more annually to their savings and investments, than they spend in a year on their mortgage, children’s education and travel.
However, as Aron Levine, Head of Consumer Banking & Merrill Edge while explains, “While an endless pursuit for financial security may be prompting Americans to save at record rates, it’s clear that saving does not mean planning.” The majority of respondents say they have no monetary goal in mind when it comes to many major life milestones, including having a baby (67 percent), getting married (64 percent), sending children to college (54 percent), and putting a down payment on a house (50 percent).
Could emerging technologies be the solution to these planning shortfalls?
Respondents are increasingly embracing artificial intelligence (AI) in their financial lives, with the majority already comfortable with AI providing financial guidance, managing day-to-day finances and making investments. And, nearly half of Americans admit social media impacts their finances on a daily basis, including their spending habits, budget, and savings.
Merrill concluded that many Americans are clearly in need of well-defined plans to help pursue their goals with more autonomy and confidence.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAlexas_Foto. Emerging Markets: Have they Ceased to be Attractive for Investors?
Following the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Turkey and Argentina, the uncertainty about future elections in Brazil, and trade tensions in China, which were motivated by the escalation of US protectionist measures, many investors have decided to limit their exposure to emerging markets. Is it time to exit emerging markets?
According to management companies, keeping emerging market assets in the portfolios remains a good option in order to diversify risks and to capture some more profitability with some types of assets, but they also emphasize that it must be done with caution after thoroughly analyzing both the countries and the assets.
For example, Luca Paoilini, Chief Strategist at Pictet AM, admits that they continue to overweight emerging markets. “In this state of affairs we maintain a neutral position in stocks and bonds. The world economy remains resilient, but caution is justified and it is too early to overweight. However, we continue to overweight emerging stocks, as the risks are compensated with attractive valuations and solid fundamental,” he says.
At Julius Baer they don’t rule out that in the short term there may be more sales in local debt from emerging markets, driven especially by the decisions that the Fed may take this week on interest rates. They are optimistic however, “Looking beyond the next Fed meeting, we note that fundamentals continue to support both local and strong currency emerging market debt on an equal basis. Valuations have returned from high risk levels to quite normal. Most importantly, global growth remains well supported by US consumer activity and housing resilience in China. Therefore, global growth is unlikely to decline to levels historically linked to emerging market bond crises,” explains Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Analysis at Julius Baer, and Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Analyst at Julius. Baer.
According to Legg Mason, despite asset management companies’ valuations, investors are beginning to show their fear of exposing themselves to the emerging universe. “Real yield spreads between emerging and developed markets are at 10-year highs, reflecting the backdrop of fear that continues to spread across the developing world, when one country after another is sold and then repurchased with yields high enough to tempt value and produce hungry investors,” say Legg Mason’s fixed income experts.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrCourtesy photo. ESG: Will It Become A Competitive Advantage?
A few months ago, a great manager and friend, a faithful follower of the philosophy of value investing, told me that he had introduced ESG criteria into his analysis, and that he considered them a source of competitive advantage for certain companies. He even gave an example. It is the typical comment that you interpret as a justification to support a new trend, but as it came from this person, it made me think. Not only for listed companies where to invest, but for the very business of asset management.
There is no self-respecting conference on investments that does not discuss ESG, no institutional investor that does not show interest in adopting these criteria in new investments and no slide in strategic presentations of companies that does not mention it. They have started to create certificates in “ESG investing” and, of course, the regulator is surely not far behind wanting to define and assign universal ratings…
Obviously, it would be an unsustainable competitive advantage as it does not create a lasting entry barrier, but the speed of implementation may condition the feasibility of the business in the short term.
From the asset management perspective, it should go from being a specific type of asset to be part of the corporate investment philosophy. It will be a new risk factor to control. However, and still being an unstoppable trend, in the short term it faces certain difficulties:
It is currently in direct conflict with passive management, where there is no type of ESG filter in most indexes, and therefore in the funds that replicate them.
Most capital allocation decisions are made within the companies themselves, which makes it especially difficult to analyse the decisions and the impact on different factors such as supply chains or trade policies.
It definitely means a great risk for asset managers, not being able to access a growing client base with clients who are looking for it, or ultimately, lose them (a great French institutional manager recently mentioned in a conference that 50% of its new business is coming with ESG criteria). And it is also a great risk for listed companies to see reduced access to capital markets, which may (it has not happened yet) increase their cost of capital. In certain cases, if a case of corruption by a senior executive of a company comes out, it could trigger a wave of indiscriminate sales from these funds. And if corporate governance does not work well, it may compromise its cost of financing in a much more aggressive way than we are seeing recently. And the client will eventually demand a report where their manager’s performance is analysed and the impact achieved in certain cases.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Extell Development Company. The World's Tallest Penthouse Will Set You (Or Your Client) Back by 95 Million Dollars
A beacon of glass and steel rising 1,550 feet on famed Billionaire’s Row in New York City, Central Park Tower is set to become one of the most prestigious addresses in the world. Offering endless views, exquisite architecture, gracious layouts and an unprecedented level of service, Central Park Tower will be the definitive New York skyscraper. Real estate development firm Extell Development Company will exclusively handle the sales and marketing for Central Park Tower which will have 20 condos worth over 60 million dollars, and a 95 million dollar penthouse.
“Over a decade of planning and collaboration with the world’s most talented architects, engineers and designers has resulted in Manhattan’s newest iconic structure,” said Gary Barnett, Founder and President of Extell Development Company. “Central Park Tower introduces a level of design, quality and service that hasn’t been seen before. This building will stand out in New York City history as the singular residential offering that redefined luxury living.”
Central Park Tower was designed by Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture (AS+GG), a firm dedicated to the design of high-performance, energy-efficient, striking architecture on an international scale. AS+GG has collaborated with clients across the globe to design nine of the world’s tallest and highest-performing buildings. Currently, AS+GG is responsible for the design of the next world’s tallest building, Jeddah Tower now under construction in Saudi Arabia, as well Wuhan Greenland Center and Greenland Tower Chengdu, both currently under construction in China.
With their breadth of experience, AS+GG is uniquely suited to deliver an iconic, landmark building like Central Park Tower. The building’s façade distinguishes itself from its surroundings by combining elements of glass, satin-finished stainless steel, and light-catching vertical and horizontal details that accentuate the interplay of texture and light. At a height of 300 feet from the street, the tower cantilevers to the east, creating Central Park views for all north-facing residences.
The definitive aspects of living in Central Park Tower are the extraordinary views and floor plans. The grand living and entertaining spaces are strategically positioned in the corners of the residences to maximize multiple panoramas and citywide views. Structural elements are discreetly located between the residential units, resulting in floor-to-ceiling windows, unencumbered views and gracious layouts.
“One of the greatest responsibilities of architecture is to continue to elevate experiences yet create structures that are elegant and respectful,” said Gordon Gill of Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture. “Central Park Tower was designed to take advantage of the spirit of the great city of New York and create an address worthy of its location on Billionaires Row and Central Park.”
The interiors of these grand residences are designed by Rottet Studio, whose credits include The Surrey Hotel in Manhattan, The St. Regis in Aspen, The Beverly Hills Hotel Presidential Bungalows and The River Oaks in Houston. Rottet’s interiors are marked by a distinguished level of detail and incorporating unique and custom finishes to create an unparalleled interior environment. Starting on the 32nd floor, the 179 ultra-luxury two-to-eight-bedroom residences range in size from 1,435 square feet to over 17,500 square feet.
Located within the tallest residential tower ever built will be one of the world’s most exclusive private clubs, Central Park Club. The Club will offer approximately 50,000 square feet of thoroughly curated luxury amenities spread across three floors, each location providing a unique experience complemented by five-star service.Extell is co-developing Central Park Tower with SMI USA (SMI), the US subsidiary of Shanghai Municipal Investment, a leading infrastructural investment company responsible for the esteemed Shanghai Tower, the second tallest building in the world.
For more information or to schedule a private appointment at the sales gallery, please call 212-957-5557 or visit their website.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAbraham E. Vela Dib, Linkedin. Abraham E. Vela Dib Will Head the Mexican Pension Funds Regulator
Abraham Everardo Vela Dib will be, as of December 1, 2018, the new President of Mexico’s pension funds regulator, the CONSAR.
Vela Dib told Funds Society that leading this endeavour will be “a pleasure and distinction.”
According to Funds Society sources close to the CONSAR, Vela Dib will meet with the team of Carlos Ramírez Fuentes next week to work on the transition process.
Since the beginning of the year, Ramírez has been preparing various materials so that the change of administration is as easy as possible and the new team has all the necessary tools to make the decisions they need.
Amongst the new administration to-do list is to hold the CAR meeting that will give the green light to Afores’ investment in mutual funds.
The PhD in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), has held various positions at the Bank of Mexico and its Ministry of Finance. He has also been a visiting economist at the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements. He recently joined the teaching team of the Colegio de México-where he completed his MA in Economics, after leaving his post at the Central Bank of Hungary, where he spent the last 10 months as an expert in macroeconomic analysis and education.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. “Argentina will Continue to be a High-Risk Country, but at Levels that Exceed the Reasonable Possibilities of Default”
In an exclusive interview with Gorky Urquieta, Global Co-Head of Emerging Market Debt Neuberger Berman, Funds Society has had the opportunity to talk about their current vision and perspectives of emerging markets debt after the instability experienced in these markets during last August.
The current situation of emerging markets is different from that of 2013 or 2015 Neuberger Berman’s assessment of the current situation of emerging markets differs significantly from what happened in 2013 or 2015, when emerging markets experienced significant spread extensions and currency falls. Although they admit that there is a certain deceleration stage, and that some countries will have to make more aggressive adjustments in monetary policy, they also point out that there are others that are in relatively good conditions despite a more complicated current environment. In particular, Urquieta points out that: “There are countries that are in relatively good conditions in Latin America, countries such as Mexico and Colombia, and even Brazil, which is recovering from a hard recession, but there are vulnerabilities that have become more evident in recent times due to the rate hike, the expectation of rising US Treasury rates and the revaluation of the dollar that has complicated refinancing prospects, access to liquidity, and financial conditions for markets in general.”
Main risks: trade conflict and rate hikes in the United States
At Neuberger Berman, they believe that one of the reasons for the adjustment of emerging markets has to do with the uncertainty with respect to “trade,” not only the trade dispute between China and the United States, but also with regard to the uncertainty generated before an agreement was reached in NAFTA. Urquieta concludes: “In general, this whole protectionist attitude in the US is clearly not prone to lead to growth in world trade and that will affect emerging markets to a greater or lesser degree.”
In particular, and with respect to the trade conflict between China and the United States, he acknowledges that there is a risk factor as to how it will affect the Chinese economy’s demand for raw materials, although he states that it’s in a very good position to react on the side of monetary and fiscal policy favored by low pressure for the devaluation of the renminbi.
However, he acknowledges that part of this risk in emerging debt assets has already been priced in: “It’s possibly the only risk asset which has put some price on that conflict, via commodities.” Despite this, he explains that Asian currencies that may be more exposed, such as, for example, the Korean Yuan or the Taiwanese dollar, have not been so affected, thanks to their good fundamentals.
When asked about another of the major risks that concern investors, the rate hike by the Fed, Urquieta says that some of these are already priced in and justify the appreciation of the dollar with respect to its base. However, he does not expect rates to rise more than twice, due to his doubts about the ability of the American economy to maintain its current growth rate, which is close to 4%, and adds: “As we approach 2019, growth expectations will probably begin to cool down a bit and we think that the FED will not end up raising rates 3 or 4 times.”
Opportunities in Latin America: Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico
After strong corrections in the markets, there are usually purchase opportunities due to the indiscriminate sale of assets that occurs in situations of uncertainty. Urquieta explains: “In times of stress, the market starts to act without differentiating; and we saw that in August, when the lira collapsed and the Argentine peso fared worse than the lira. That example indicates that when we see that kind of reaction it means that the market is capitulating, that is to say that it has reached a point that does not distinguish, and that indiscriminate fall creates many opportunities “
As regards their interest in debt markets in foreign currency and local markets, Brazil is a country that attracts them greatly. While it is true that local rates and the real have suffered a lot of pressure due to political uncertainty, there will potentially be a point of entry that has not yet been defined, but which will be after the first round of elections.
Argentine debt assets in foreign currency are a type of asset that also seems interesting, despite all the uncertainty surrounding the country, and he explains why: “Its market price, with the current spreads, as far as regards the probability of default, seems a bit excessive. But it‘s still a high risk country, which will probably continue to be high risk for a while, but it’s already at levels that exceed reasonable possibilities of default.”
Going into greater detail concerning the Argentine political issue, they agree that it’s complicated, but they also believe that Macri still has a relatively stable level of support, at around 40%, and that necessary adjustment plans for 2019 will be approved. They do not believe that there is any significant risk of government collapse and he adds: “Conditions would have to deteriorate greatly, a break with the fund, the program aborted for some reason, there would have to be a very extraordinary event outside of Argentina.”
“On the part of the markets we may have seen the worst,” Urquieta adds regarding the Argentine markets, although he acknowledges that the Argentine economy will suffer a severe adjustment and will be in negative growth for a long time. As for the Argentine peso, he believes that its fall is beginning to be under control, mainly because the domestic market begins to have more confidence and he adds: “That will follow a course and will eventually turn into a virtuous cycle, after having been a vicious cycle, where the outflow of capital, and the more aggressive sale of pesos to buy dollars has created a vicious circle. The stability of the exchange rate is a requirement for the rest to begin to recompose.”
Finally, he adds that, in their opinion, Mexico is another market to be taken into account, as it is a highly rated segment that seems interesting on the side of the handles and debt in foreign currency.
Portfolio recommendations
Given the current market environment and the variety of strategies that Neuberger Berman offers, we asked Gorky Urquieta about his investment recommendations and he presents the following 3 alternatives based on the risk profile.
On the more conservative side, he talks about short duration which is a fairly conservative strategy within emerging markets due to the duration profile, its foreign exchange risk, being exclusively foreign currency, and the credit quality of its portfolio with an average investment grade of BBB- . He also adds that, due to the pressure that has been observed in the short part of the curves of emerging markets during the month of August, the YTD (yield to maturity) was expanded by 100 basis points to stand above 5.8% , and thanks to this it is quite possible that they exceed the return target set at 3% over cash (3 month treasury rates).
On the opposite side, are the strategies in local currency and he adds: “If things recover, it is the strategy that has the most upside.” He also explains that based on their own analyses, following market falls exceeding 10 %, there will frequently be a rebound in prices in the following one to three months, and he confirms that the market has fallen 10% since February’s highs.
In between both strategies, there’s debt in foreign currency. Urquieta adds that although it‘s true that the spread of the benchmark has expanded 100 basis points since the beginning of the year to levels of 375 basis points, it’s mainly due to the component with credit rating below investment grade, which represents 49% of the benchmark , and whose spreads have expanded between 175-180 basis points, and half of this movement has occurred in August.
Gorky Urquieta joined Neuberger Berman in 2013. He is currently a Senior Portfolio Manager and Co-Head of the Emerging Markets Debt team, responsible for the management of numerous strategies including the following: Hard Currency, Local Currency, Corporate Debt, Short Duration, Blend, Blend Investment Grade, Asian Hard Currency, and China Bond Fund, with assets under management totaling 18 billion USD.
Founded in 1939, Neuberger Berman is a privately owned, 100% independent company. It has offices in 32 cities around the world, assets under management of approximately 304 billion dollars, and more than 40 UCITS funds registered in Ireland. With over 500 professional investors and approximately 2,0000 employees in total, Neuberger Berman stands out for its extensive offer in equities, fixed income and alternative products.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Виталий Смолыгин CC0. 4 Potential Reasons for the Gold Rally
Written by Russ Koesterich, CFA, Portfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation Team Russ discusses why gold, not a popular asset class until recently, has become so as a hedge.
October was not kind to investors. Not only did stocks suffer their worst monthly draw-down in years, but traditional hedges, such as government bonds, did not rallied enough to offset the losses (see Chart 1). As a result, a typical 60/40 stock/bond portfolio experienced one of the worst draw-downs since the financial crisis.
Interestingly, gold, largely left for dead, has rallied. Not only has gold bounced, but it has done so despite a steady dollar. Which raises the question: Why is gold rallying now? Here are four potential reasons:
1. Gold got “cheap.”
Over the very long term gold and the U.S. money supply, measured by M2, tend to move together. Changes in gold prices have roughly equaled changes in the money supply, with the ratio tending to mean-revert towards 1. By the end of September, this ratio had fallen to below 0.7, the lowest since 2005. When the ratio is low, defined as 25% below the long-term average, the average return during the subsequent 12-months is 15%.
2. The dollar has stabilized.
While the DXY Index is pushing against the upper end of its five-month range, the dollar has been relatively stable since May. This is important as a rapidly strengthening dollar, as we witnessed last spring, has historically been a headwind for gold. To the extent the dollar has stabilized, this removes one headwind.
3. Real rates also appear to have plateaued.
Besides the dollar, the biggest challenge for gold in 2018 has been rising real rates, i.e. interest rates after inflation. Higher real rates raise the opportunity cost of an asset that produces no income. Between January and early October, real 10-year yields advanced by 50 basis points. However, since then, real rates seem to have temporarily peaked near the levels reached in 2013.
4. The return of volatility.
While real rates and the dollar are key fundamental drivers for gold, demand for a hedge against volatility also drives gold prices. With the exception of the brief correction in February, that attribute has not been in demand until recently. Prior to the recent swoon, U.S. equities were well on their way towards another year of double-digit gains. Unfortunately, this pleasant trajectory has been interrupted. Equity market volatility, measured by the VIX Index, has doubled since early October. This is important, as gold has a history of performing best versus stocks when volatility is spiking. Historically, in months in which volatility rises by more than 20%, gold typically beats U.S. stocks by more than 5%.
Bottom Line
In short, whether or not gold can continue to rally will largely be driven by the direction of the dollar, real rates and market volatility. Another dollar rally will likely interrupt gold’s recent strength. That said, absent another leg up in the dollar, an environment of rising volatility, particularly one in which economic uncertainty is rising, has historically been exactly the environment when gold has proved its value as a hedge.
Russ Koesterich, CFA, is Portfolio Manager for BlackRock’s Global Allocation team.
Photo: Funds Society. Shiller: "You Must Have Exposure To The United States Even Though It Is One Of The Most Expensive Markets In The World"
According to Robert Shiller, Nobel laureate in economics 2013, economic growth is good in the United States and although there is concern about high valuations, he does not predict a near collapse.
In his last visit to Mexico, to celebrate the launch of the Ossiam Shiller Barclays ETF in the Mexican Global Market (SIC in Spanish), the economist told Funds Society about the importance of geographic diversification and added that, within it, exposure to the United States should be kept, even though “the US market is at high valuations with a cap ratio of 30”.
“Despite the short-term fluctuations that come and go, I think we should not think that a bear market is approaching and I think that we should have some exposure to the United States that, although it is one of the most expensive markets in the world, continues to behave positively. The key is not to put all the eggs in the US basket, but to diversify,” he added.
In his opinion, one way to get exposure to this market is to look for instruments that have a value-focused approach, such as the ETF that replicates the index resulting from its collaboration with Barclays.
However, he warns that markets are not only about interest rates and their effect, but the ideas of people. Currently we have important changes in the political sphere of the United States and many places in the world, including Mexico, and according to the economist, “one would have believed that the markets had suffered, which did not happen on a large scale…”
In his opinion, “the way the economy looks is changing. It is becoming less theoretical, less mathematical, less abstract and is becoming more practical. Now it is giving greater importance to the narrative that accompanies it,” he mentions adding that, “the desire and willingness of people to invest and take risk changes over time and the narrative they live.”
Mexico
The economist, who personally has exposure to Mexico in his investments and considers the country as a key player in the global economy, commented that “the next government of Mexico, headed by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, should give certainty and security to investors” .
About the airport, Schiller said: “I do not know if Mexico needs a new airport, but I hope that this can be resolved in a way that all the people who made investments and plans feel that they made a good agreement … It is important that the new president encourages investors to feel that there is a safe environment to invest.” He concluded.
Photo: Guma89. Play Cautiously with Vulnerable Markets
Written by Rick Rieder, BlackRock Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and portfolio manager for the BGF Fixed Income Global Opportunities Fund. Rieder argues that monetary policy restrictiveness, fading fiscal stimulus, and growing economic uncertainties leave markets more vulnerable today, and these risks are not to be toyed with.
In the game of Jenga, players take turns removing one block at a time from a tower constructed of 54 blocks. Each block removed is then placed on top of the tower, creating a progressively taller, yet more unstable, structure. The game ends when the tower falls and the loser is the person who made it fall. To us, the 2018 investing regime is evolving much like a late-stage game of Jenga, with the Federal Reserve and Treasury clinically and methodically removing the blocks of stability from underneath the financial and real economy “towers.” Indeed, ongoing rate hikes, Fed balance sheet reductions, and massive amounts of Treasury issuance to finance fiscal deficits are leading to increasing vulnerabilities for both financial assets and the prospects for economic growth over coming quarters. In our view, this vulnerability is evidenced by the recent acute spike in market volatility.
Monetary Policy likely to differ from standard market narrative
The conventional market narrative today surrounds already realized robust U.S. growth and earnings, and an earnest belief that sufficient momentum exists to push a capacity-constrained economy into a mode of overheating that will force the Fed to seek a restrictive policy stance. Our base case monetary policy scenario is far more benign, as increasingly skittish financial markets, along with signs that previous tightening has already started to bite parts of the real economy, suggest to us that the tightening cycle is nearing its end. To be clear, though, we do not think the Fed will mistakenly become too restrictive.
To be sure, third quarter U.S. economic growth remains strong by most measures, but we think there are numerous yellow lights flashing ahead of investors today. For instance, while ‘present conditions’ components of high-frequency survey economic data remain solid, related measures of ‘forward expectations’ have become noticeably weaker. Moreover, the two largest (and most rate-sensitive) sectors of the tangible economy, the housing and auto markets, are showing demonstrable signs of softness. That weakening can be witnessed with declines in mortgage applications, housing turnover, and a reduced rate of home-price appreciation. It can also be seen in a notable decline in used car prices. Finally, the powerful influence of 2018 fiscal stimulus will become a growth headwind in 2019, as temporary measures roll off leaving only the related financing burden behind. As that process unfolds, it’s very likely that the Fed’s judgement of the strength of the economy and the need for further policy rate hikes also adjusts (see graph), an eventuality that markets are not properly discounting now.
Meanwhile, inflation has moved begrudgingly toward the Fed’s desired target, but there is scant evidence of untethered economy-wide price increases. In fact, persistent “misses” in core inflation prints, relative to expectations, are widely brushed aside as “one-off” occurrences, but the reality is that the greatest cost revolution in history (due to technology and demographic forces) is combining with fat corporate profit margins that can handily absorb wage increases. That fact should mute consumer price increases, just as inflation expectations continue to make new generational lows.
And, with real economy vulnerabilities percolating, we see a more acute tightening of financial conditions (FC) than is broadly appreciated. While traditional metrics show that FC are approaching longer run averages, when adjusted for contracting forward equity multiples, a more pronounced tightening is evident. Also, rising yields are driving increased corporate borrowing costs, a late-cycle phenomenon that often leads reflexively to wider credit spreads that in turn risk exacerbating the phenomenon.
What tighter financial conditions mean for markets
Tighter financial conditions have already impacted the global economy as U.S. dollar strength, and declining global liquidity growth, has generated significant turmoil in emerging markets (EM) this year. Many EM countries have witnessed a ubiquitous, and unwanted, currency weakness that has forced onerous policy tightening by their central banks to restore stability. However, this creates yet another headwind to global growth, with worrying implications for non-U.S. developed market (DM) economies that rely on EM growth for economic resilience (such as a good deal of Europe). Indeed, just last week, the International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast for the first time in years.
During October, nascent signs of global growth deceleration and tightening financial conditions have caused volatility to spike anew. Moreover, if price declines across asset classes proliferate further over coming weeks the risk of accelerating retail capital outflows from financial assets would be exacerbated by dangerously thinly traded financial markets. An important tail risk to greater equity market weakness is the potential to rapidly undo the progress that pension funds have made in closing their funding gaps in recent years. The early third quarter backdrop of higher rates and buoyant equities provided a window for pensions to lock in that progress, but the more recent equity selloff, should it persist, would suddenly jeopardize those gains.
Implications for Asset Allocation
All things considered, we’re increasingly convinced that the Fed will not allow the Jenga tower to topple. Instead, we see a looming slowdown in the march toward “normalization” and a subsequent victory declaration regarding the Fed’s dogged pursuit of policy neutrality. Accordingly, we reiterate our enthusiasm for convex, high-quality, front-end rate expressions with immensely attractive carry (such as the 2-Year U.S. Treasury), as these assets have already priced in excessive incremental tightening and provide a portfolio hedge against the unlikely event of a policy mistake. We’ll gradually increase exposure to the belly of the curve (5-Year U.S. Treasury) on a moderate backup from here for an optimal mix of attractive carry breakeven and duration, just as the recent favorable shifts in cross-currency swaps make DM sovereigns expressed in USD newly enticing (note, the USD still remains one of our favored left-tail risk hedges).
We continue to like beta exposures through investment-grade credit expressions; for the combination of attractive all-in yield and satisfactory market liquidity, and also like short duration securitized assets, for their stable and secure cash flows. Finally, U.S. equities are increasingly attractive to own outright at ever cheaper valuations, just as corporate buybacks are set to resume after the third quarter earnings season ends. And for the first time all year, we think that elevated levels of implied volatility are creating tactical opportunities to sell options for incremental portfolio carry. Investors today must remain on guard against the market vulnerabilities we outlined, but at the same time, these very vulnerabilities provide opportunity. After all, no matter how precariously the Jenga tower is leaning, a player can’t win unless they remove a block and carefully place it on top.
Build on Insight, by BlackRock written by Rick Rieder, Managing Director, is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and portfolio manager for the BGF Fixed Income Global Opportunities Fund
In Latin America and Iberia: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds have not been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx.
Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.
Fixed income risks include interest-rate and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in bond values. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the bond issuer will not be able to make principal and interest payments. Learn more about how consistent investment performance and low fees are critical to achieving your fixed income goals in today’s environment. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets and in concentrations of single countries.
Non-investment-grade debt securities (high-yield/junk bonds) may be subject to greater market fluctuations, risk of default or loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of October 2018 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member Finra
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Alexas_Fotos. October Spooked Market Participants Universally But The U.S. Economy is Still on a Roll
October spooked market participants universally with US stocks enduring their worst month since the financial crisis. Issues at hand circle around concerns about peak earnings and growth, tighter financial conditions, fears of a Fed policy mistake, a potential credit bubble and selling pressure in crowded trades. Tensions have been further compounded by geopolitical worries, including ongoing trade tensions with China and deteriorating Chinese/US relations; Italy’s budget chaos and fears of a recession; uncertainty regarding the upcoming US congressional elections; and Brazil’s election of Jair Bolsonaro, joining the growing ranks of populists across the world.
The U.S. economy is still on a roll and this is reflected by the outperformance of U.S. equities versus foreign stock markets. More broadly, payrolls are increasing, wages are growing at the fastest rate since 2009, and unemployment is at a 49 year low. Consumer spending is doing well and should get a boost from falling oil prices while global investors continue to be attracted by America’s low tax rate, economic strength, corporate profit growth, and ongoing efforts to achieve less regulation.
There are undoubtedly countless factors that could go wrong with the equity market. With that in mind, much could still go right. Earnings growth rates may be peaking, but earnings are still strong; outcomes in the US midterm elections will be known November 6th, removing the angst over potential outcomes; and the world could be pleasantly surprised following a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the upcoming G-20 summit, easing concerns over escalating challenges between two of the world’s superpowers. With no compass to turn to, we continue to orient ourselves by looking at valuations, which for global stocks look to be at attractive levels not seen for over two years.
One specific investment dynamic I would like to highlight is in regards to the music industry, which are changing fast with Sony continuing to strategically position itself to the benefit of shareholders. After gaining European Commission approval in late October, Sony will acquire EMI Music Publishing in a $2.3 billion deal without conditions. The EMI acquisition will make Sony the global industry leader with a market share of about 26 percent. Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group are the major competitors in an industry that has now been revitalized by digital streaming services. As a copyright manager, Sony can earn revenues from direct deals with Spottily, Apple Music, Google Play, SoundCloud and YouTube. At the end of October, returning to the creative roots of its original Sony Walkman TPS-L2 in 1979 and as a logical extension of the music business, Sony audio announced that it aimed to regain its leadership position in headphones.
Column by Gabelli Funds, written by Michael Gabelli
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GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
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