From Bonds to Equities: Five Investment Themes for 2025

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Temas de inversión en 2025
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As we enter 2025, it is crucial to reflect on the events of the past year and prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead. At the end of 2024, the investment leaders of Neuberger Berman gathered to analyze the evolving investment environment and identify the themes they consider essential for the next twelve months. As a result of this exercise, the investment firm highlights five key themes.

A Year of Above-Trend Growth

Although policies may change, industrial strategies aimed at influencing domestic production patterns will continue, whether through government spending and investment, fiscal policy, trade policy, deregulation, or other means, according to Neuberger Berman. “If inflation can remain contained—and we believe it is possible—central banks could stay on the sidelines and allow economies to operate at a slightly faster pace. This scenario suggests above-trend U.S. GDP growth, which could pull other global economies along. The implications for debt and deficits, as well as the efficient allocation of capital, could surprise investors by proving to be manageable concerns in 2025,” the experts highlight.

Extending the Soft Landing with Real Income Growth

The negative impact of high inflation on lower-income consumers and small businesses has been a key factor in this year’s political uncertainty. According to the firm, countries and governments that achieve moderate inflation and greater participation in real wage and income growth will define success, reflected in data such as higher consumer confidence, improved political approval ratings, and GDP growth rates. “While it remains to be seen whether certain policy combinations can achieve this, we see evidence that the new U.S. administration at least recognizes this goal, and active industrial policies are proof of a growing recognition in other regions,” the experts emphasize.Setting the Stage for Broader Equity Market Performance

Deregulation, business-friendly policies, moderate inflation, and lower rates could allow for broader earnings growth and price performance, according to Neuberger Berman. “At the same time, the growth rates of large technology companies are likely to slow and normalize as capital expenditures increase. Value stocks, small-cap stocks, and sectors such as financials and industrials could start to regain ground against large tech companies. Non-U.S. markets could perform more strongly due to higher global growth and lower commodity prices. Relative valuations, along with fundamentals, should support this trend,” the experts note.

Bond Markets to Focus on Fiscal Policy Over Monetary Policy

“For more than two years, bond markets have been dominated by inflation data and central bank responses. We believe that in 2025, a reacceleration of inflation can be avoided, and central banks will settle into the more predictable routine of debating the level of the neutral rate,” Neuberger Berman states.

Bond investors are likely to shift their focus toward growth prospects for most of 2025, and possibly toward deficits and the issue of the term premium by the end of the year and into 2026, according to the firm’s experts. The result will be a moderate steepening of yield curves and a migration of bond market volatility from the short end of the curve to the intermediate and long ends.

A Boom in Mergers and Acquisitions

“Several factors are converging to unleash a pent-up wave of corporate deals: above-trend growth, optimistic valuations in public equity markets, a more stable outlook on inflation and central bank policies, the return of banks to the leveraged loan market, declining interest rates, and tighter credit spreads. Perhaps most importantly, a shift in the regulatory approach in the U.S. is anticipated,” the firm highlights.

That said, secondary private equity markets and co-investments will continue to thrive, as liquidity is still required to manage a large backlog of mature investments. However, raising new primary funds will remain a challenge. Event-driven hedge fund strategies will benefit from a large set of new opportunities, the experts conclude.

Franklin Templeton Launches a Registered Secondary Private Equity Public Tender Offer Fund

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Private equity continues to gain traction among asset managers, and Franklin Templeton does not want to be left behind. For this reason, it announced the launch of its first open-ended fund focused on secondary private equity investments, which will be jointly advised with Lexington Partners.

The Franklin Lexington Private Markets Fund (“FLEX”) offers simplified access to a diversified portfolio of private equity investments acquired through secondary transactions and co-investments in new private equity transactions.

Designed for clients in the U.S. wealth management channel seeking long-term growth opportunities, “FLEX provides access to an asset class that, until recently, was primarily available to institutional investors,” states the press release obtained by Funds Society.

This new fund enters the market with $904.5 million in assets under management, thanks to an initial partnership with two U.S.-based wealth management firms.

Lexington estimates that 2024 was the fourth consecutive year in which the secondary market volume exceeded $100 billion.

“With the initial public offering (IPO) market stalled and distributions slowing down, institutions may turn to the secondary market for liquidity. These dynamics are also driving the growth of continuation vehicle transactions, where private equity sponsors use the secondary market to fund these deals,” adds the announcement of the launch.

Franklin Templeton, for its part, believes that secondary private equity is appealing because it offers several potential advantages for the wealth management channel.

“In particular, individual investors could benefit from a shorter timeframe to receive distributions, as well as diversification across general partners, investment periods, geographies, and industries,” the company notes.

FLEX is registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 as a closed-end public tender offer fund and features lower investment minimums compared to private equity funds available to institutional investors. It also offers 1099 tax reporting, monthly subscriptions, and quarterly liquidity.

Investor.gov’s 10 Investing Resolutions for 2025

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Investor Govs y resoluciones de inversión
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As the new year begins, it’s a good time to focus on one’s financial goals. Setting clear investing resolutions can help guide one’s decisions and lead to long-term success. In order to do that, Lori Shock, Director of the SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy, has created 10 resolutions to consider for 2025.

1. Check out Investor.gov

Before investing, explore the free resources offered through Investor.gov. Use its financial planning tools, calculators, and valuable information to create an investment plan that aligns with your financial goals. 

2. Conduct a Background Check on an Investment Professional 

Before working with an investment professional, check their credentials and use Investor.gov to verify their background, registration status, and more.

3. Take Our Monthly Investing Quizzes

Test your knowledge each month with the SEC’s monthly quizzes, designed to educate people while providing helpful tips. Take them as often as needed to reinforce the information. 

4. Research Every Investment Opportunity Thoroughly

Always conduct independent research to fully understand the investment and its associated risks before you invest. Do not rely on endorsements made by celebrities or ads that were found online – always investigate the information before committing. 

5. Say “NO” to FOMO

Avoid the temptation of the latest investment craze driven by a fear of missing out or FOMO. Stay focused on the long-term goals you’ve set for yourself. 

6. Sign Up For Our Investor Alerts and Bulletins

Stay informed about potential investment scams and trends by subscribing to the SEC’s Investor Alerts and Bulletins. These resources can help you avoid fraud and update you on important investment topics like digital assets and ESG investing. 

7. Visit Our Director’s Take Articles Page

The SEC’s Director’s Take articles offer easy-to-understand articles on current investment topics, such as market volatility or teen trading. 

8. Watch Our Public Service Campaign Videos

Learn key investing concepts and current topics through the SEC’s short informative videos. These can help you understand complex financial concepts better and make more informed decisions. 

9. Create a Long-Term Investment Plan

Develop a diversified investment strategy that reflects your goals and risk tolerance. Remember, time in the market, not timing the market, leads to success. 

10. Resolve to Steer Clear of Investment Scams 

Be cautious of “too good to be true” opportunities, promises of guaranteed returns and investment schemes based on hype. Stay alert for signs of fraud in investment offers. 

The Trump Era for Cryptoassets Has Begun: The SEC Announces New Regulations

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The acting chairman of the SEC, Mark T. Uyeda, has launched a task force dedicated to developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for cryptoassets. In the same announcement, the regulator took the opportunity to criticize the former administration, according to a statement issued by the SEC.

The team will be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce and will include Richard Gabbert, the acting chairman’s senior advisor, and Taylor Asher, the acting chairman’s senior policy advisor. Gabbert and Asher will serve as Chief of Staff and Senior Policy Advisor for the task force, respectively.

“Composed of talented staff from across the agency, the Task Force will collaborate with Commission staff and the public to chart a sensible regulatory path that respects the boundaries of the law,” the statement reads.

The statement, issued after the departure of Joe Biden’s administration, clearly expresses dissatisfaction with how cryptoasset oversight has been handled in recent years.

Information released on Tuesday indicates that, to date, the SEC has primarily relied on enforcement actions to regulate cryptoassets retroactively and reactively, often adopting novel and untested legal interpretations in the process.

“Clarity on who needs to register, along with practical solutions for those seeking to register, has been elusive. This has resulted in confusion about what is legal, creating a hostile environment for innovation and conducive to fraud. The SEC can do better,” the statement asserts.

The Task Force’s focus will be to help the Commission draw clear regulatory lines, provide realistic registration pathways, design reasonable disclosure frameworks, and deploy enforcement resources judiciously, the statement adds.

Additionally, the Task Force “will operate within the legal framework established by Congress and coordinate the provision of technical assistance to Congress as it makes changes to that framework.”

It will also collaborate with federal departments and agencies, such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as well as with state and international counterparts.

Industry Firms React to the California Wildfires

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Industry and California wildfires
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The devastating Southern California wildfire will go down in history as one of the most costly and damaging natural disasters in the region. While the fire has subsided, alerts remain in place, and after eight days, at least 25 people have lost their lives, and approximately 6.5 million people have remained on alert. Additionally, the fire has damaged or destroyed more than 12,000 homes and other structures, displacing 200,000 people.

In this context, asset managers and banks have expressed concern for those displaced, including some of their employees, and have also thanked supporters for their assistance in recent hours. Specifically, this article includes statements from Capital Group, iMGP, and UBS.

“We cannot thank you enough for the incredible show of support in the face of the tragic wildfires still burning in Los Angeles. The damage to our communities is heartbreaking,” Capital Group said in a statement sent to clients and the press.

The asset manager, with offices in Los Angeles, added that its focus has been to join forces with colleagues and neighbors “to support them in every way possible” and emphasized that the most important thing is that its associates “are safe.” Additionally, the company’s statement noted that some have lost their homes, and others have been evacuated.

Finally, the asset manager, which clarified that its business is operating normally, said it is “donating to the California Community Foundation, the Los Angeles Regional Food Bank, and the American Red Cross.”

iM Global Partner, for its part, expressed deep sorrow and concern about the situation in California. “The devastation caused by the fires in Los Angeles, California, is immense and truly heartbreaking. Our thoughts are with those affected by this terrible tragedy, and we are very grateful that most are safe,” the asset manager said in a statement accessed by Funds Society.

iMGP, which has offices in Los Angeles, noted that some of its team members have had to leave their homes, while others “are opening their doors to help those in need,” the statement added.

The firm committed to contributing to the rebuilding of the affected areas and supporting the people of Los Angeles in the future.

Finally, the Swiss bank UBS, which also has a presence on the West Coast, expressed its “condolences to those who have suffered losses” and prepared a report on how the wildfires could affect the municipal bond industry.

“It is too early to fully assess the impact on municipal issuers, but we do not expect defaults among the seven major issuers we cover in the region, given federal support, state aid, insurance payouts, and strong credit fundamentals,” said Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer for the U.S. at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a LinkedIn post.

Additionally, the UBS executive noted that experts observed that “California has a proven track record of assisting its local governments with disaster recovery efforts.”

Finally, she warned investors “that widespread destruction will create credit pressures across all sectors, which will likely lead to actions by rating agencies.”

Vanguard Announces a New Actively Managed Fixed-Income ETF

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Vanguard and actively managed ETF
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Vanguard Will Expand Its Fixed-Income Offering with the Launch of the Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF (VSDB), an Actively Managed Fixed-Income ETF to Be Managed by Vanguard’s Fixed-Income Group.

“The Vanguard Short Duration Bond ETF adds to our growing lineup of actively managed fixed-income ETFs and offers investors the opportunity to outperform the market in their short-term fixed-income allocations,” said Dan Reyes, Head of Vanguard’s Portfolio Review Department.

The firm plans to launch this ETF in early April of this year, and it will offer diversified exposure, primarily to short-term U.S. investment-grade bonds, including some exposure to structured products such as asset-backed securities.

The ETF is designed “to provide clients with current income and lower price volatility, consistent with short-duration bonds,” according to the statement.

Additionally, it will have the flexibility to invest in below-investment-grade debt and emerging markets to seek additional yield.

“This multi-sector approach aligns with investors’ preferences within their short-term fixed-income allocations and allows Vanguard’s fixed-income group to leverage the best ideas within a broad investable universe. The VSDB will have an estimated expense ratio of 0.15%,” the manager’s statement adds.

The ETF will be actively managed, enabling portfolio managers to seek the best opportunities within their investment universe while always maintaining a highly risk-aware approach, the information concludes.

Trump Pledges to Reclaim the Panama Canal, Prioritize Oil, and Revive Manufacturing

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Trump and Panama Canal
Wikimedia CommonsOfficial photo of the inauguration of the 47th presidency of the United States led by Donald Trump.

Donald Trump officially assumed office on Monday as the 47th President of the United States. In a robust inaugural address, he outlined policies aimed at making Americans “proud of their country,” while advocating for the oil industry, national manufacturing, and the reclamation of the Panama Canal.

“We will drill, baby, drill”

In a pointed critique of the Biden administration’s legacy, Trump declared the “Green New Deal” dead. He strongly criticized Democratic environmental policies and staunchly defended U.S. oil drilling (fracking) as a means to lower energy prices, which he claims have fueled inflation.

“America will be a manufacturing nation, and we have more oil than any other country. Prices will drop, our strategic reserves are at maximum capacity, and we will export to nations around the world,” Trump announced.

The president emphasized the importance of capitalizing on America’s “liquid gold,” stating that fracking would be a cornerstone of his productive strategy. “We’re going to drill, baby, drill,” he exclaimed.

The U.S. Will Be a Manufacturing Nation Again

Trump outlined plans for his administration to tackle rising prices, with his new cabinet focused on controlling inflation.

In terms of production, the president, now beginning his second non-consecutive term, reiterated his commitment to making the U.S. “a nation of domestic manufacturing” once again, particularly in the automotive and fossil fuel sectors.

On trade, Trump revisited a key theme from his first term—tariffs.

“Immediately, I will begin reforming our trade system. Instead of using our taxes to enrich other countries, we will use the taxes of other countries to enrich our own nation,” he stated.

On the Panama Canal: “China Is Operating It”

Trump also announced his intention to reclaim the Panama Canal, which he claimed is currently being operated by China.

“American ships are being grossly overcharged and unfairly treated in every way, shape, and form. This includes the U.S. Navy. And above all, China is operating the Panama Canal. We didn’t give it to China. We gave it to Panama, and we’re going to take it back,” Trump declared.

Defense, Security, and Gender Policies

The new president also addressed immigration, defense, national security, and gender-related policies.

Trump began by emphasizing national security, declaring a “national emergency” at the southern border effective immediately.

He announced an immediate halt to illegal border crossings and outlined plans to deport undocumented immigrants. “We will put an end to the practice of catch and release. We will stop the dangerous invasion that has plagued our country,” he stated.

Additionally, Trump labeled drug cartels as international terrorist organizations.

“We will eliminate the presence of gangs and criminals in our major cities and heartlands. As Commander-in-Chief, it is my duty to defend our country, and that’s exactly what we will do,” he said.

These measures had immediate consequences at the border, including the suspension of asylum applications through the CBP One system, which had facilitated asylum requests in the U.S.

On national defense, Trump vowed to restore pride in the Armed Forces and announced that the American flag would one day be planted on Mars.

Regarding gender policies, Trump took a firm stance against diversity initiatives, declaring that under his administration, there would be “only two genders: male and female.”

Inauguration Ceremony

The swearing-in ceremony at the Capitol was attended by former presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama, as well as outgoing president Joe Biden. Members of Trump’s family and inner circle were also present.

Jose Luis Blázquez Vilés Founds the Wealthtech ALVUS

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José Luis Blázquez Viles and Alvus
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José Luis Blázquez Vilés has founded ALVUS Wealth Tech Wisdom, a SaaS (Software as a Service) platform designed to provide technological services for aggregating, monitoring, and managing the wealth of unregulated entities such as single family offices, religious congregations, associations, or foundations in Spain and Latin America. ALVUS currently serves single family offices in Spain, Peru, and Panama.

Most clients of this type rely on Excel-based processes. ALVUS aims to help them optimize these processes by reducing costs and increasing profitability and productivity. For example, single family offices can automatically integrate any type of asset—liquid or illiquid, active or passive—from any financial entity or jurisdiction. The platform offers global or partial reports, document management, automated accounting, tax reporting, document archiving, among other services. Additionally, ALVUS provides tools for cost control with financial entities, risk management, and asset recurrence control, including a “look through” of the total wealth of families or individuals by entity or overall.

ALVUS is a fully independent company, unaffiliated with any financial entity, and boasts over 200 connections with custodial banks and asset managers. Eighty IT professionals support the project.

ALVUS is part of a platform that already provides services to regulated entities in Spain (under CNMV) and Latin America (regulated by local market authorities). ALVUS clients benefit from the expertise and reliability of this platform, which serves securities and brokerage firms, banks, investment firms, fund managers, and more, without depending on external wealth management or advisory services.

Blázquez was the founder of Beka Values Private Banking (now Beka Finance Private Banking) and the creator of the ACUA Private Banking Project. He was also the Director of the External Advisors and Managers Model for Spain and Latin America at Andbank. He has held roles at Inversis Banco, including Director of the Independent Financial Advisors Network and Business Development, and served as Director of Asset Management for Spain and Portugal at Dresdner Bank. Other roles include positions at Renta 4, Dresdner Kleinwort, CECA London, Garban Europe London, and Renta 4 Securities Company.

Blázquez holds a degree in Business Administration with a specialization in Quantitative Methods from the Autonomous University of Madrid. He has obtained multiple postgraduate qualifications, including a Master’s in Financial Markets (Autonomous University of Madrid), a Master’s in e-Business (Instituto de Empresa), an Executive MBA (ESADE), a Management Development Program (IESE), a Fintech Program (ESADE), and a Derivatives Program (INSEAD). Additionally, he holds certifications such as Chartered Financial Technician (CFTe) and EFPA.

LarrainVial Activos Prepares to Purchase $1 Million in Shares of Its Controversial Fund

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LarrainVial and controversial fund
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A few weeks after announcing a compensation program for non-institutional investors in its controversial Capital Estructurado I fund, LarrainVial Activos AGF—the alternative investments arm of the Chilean group LarrainVial—has provided more details about the program’s scope. Recently, the manager informed the market that it reached an agreement with 23 contributors to the vehicle.

According to a material event report submitted to the Comisión para el Mercado Financiero (CMF), these contributors from the fund’s Series B, who filed a lawsuit for fraud and disloyal management against STF Capital, LarrainVial Activos, and a group of key individuals, “were deceived by executives” at STF Capital when joining the fund.

Although the management company that created the vehicle asserts that it “had no involvement in these irregularities committed by STF and other third parties,” it decided to launch the compensation program in mid-December. Now, the agreement with the 23 investors brings the total amount of share purchases to 1.121 billion pesos (approximately $1.1 million).

This transaction, they noted in their statement to the regulator, “along with previous fund distributions, represents approximately a 68% recovery for each of the 23 claimants.”

“Additionally, the Administrator has contacted other Series B contributors, who were former STF clients affected by the serious irregularities of that brokerage, which are under judicial investigation, with the aim of arranging a plan to purchase the shares they hold,” the statement added.

The Controversy Surrounding the Fund

The controversial investment fund came under scrutiny from the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the CMF after concerns arose about how Capital Estructurado I was managed and structured. This led to lawsuits, regulatory sanctions, and formal charges against a dozen executives from LarrainVial and STF Capital.

The fund’s objective was to repay the debts of businessman Antonio Jalaff and convert them into an indirect stake in the renowned real estate holding Grupo Patio.

From LarrainVial Activos, they emphasize that they were not involved in the fund’s irregularities. In mid-December, the AGF filed a criminal lawsuit for the crime of fraud, as defined and penalized under Article 473 of the Criminal Code, against Álvaro Ignacio Jalaff Sanz, Antonio Jalaff Sanz, Cristián Felipe Menichetti Pilasi, Luis Patricio Flores Cuevas, Ariel Sauer Adlerstein, and Daniel Sauer Adlerstein, as perpetrators. The complaint also extends to “all others who may be held responsible for the damages caused to the fund.”

This action is “without prejudice to other crimes that may arise during the course of the criminal investigation,” as highlighted in their most recent material event disclosure.

La Française Real Estate Managers Expands Its Investment Team with the Appointment of Astrid Bonduelle

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La Française and Astrid Bonduelle
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La Française Real Estate Managers (REM), the real estate asset management company of Groupe La Française, has announced the appointment of Astrid Bonduelle as Investment Director within the healthcare real estate division.

In her new role, Astrid Bonduelle will be responsible for analyzing and evaluating real estate investment opportunities in the healthcare sector. She will report to Jérôme Valade, Director of the Healthcare Real Estate Sector at La Française REM.

Valade stated that over the past three years, and in the current economic context, “healthcare real estate assets have demonstrated their defensive role. Driven by an aging population and the consequent increase in healthcare needs, these investments benefit from sustained demand and can withstand economic fluctuations to some extent. Astrid will contribute to the development of this strategic sector for La Française REM.”

Bonduelle brings to La Française Real Estate Managers extensive experience in the real estate value chain. She began her career in 2020 at Groupama Gan REIM as an investment analyst, where she also supported the management of real estate portfolios. She later joined the real estate management company Euryale, where she honed her investment skills by sourcing, analyzing, and conducting due diligence on acquisition opportunities in the pan-European healthcare real estate sector.

Astrid Bonduelle holds a master’s degree in Real Estate Management from Paris Dauphine University.