Foto cedidaDaniel Graña, CFA, portfolio manager y Matthew Culley, assistant portfolio manager. Janus Henderson. Foto cedida
Emerging markets will be the focus that Janus Henderson will address in his presentation within the seventh edition of the Investment Summit & Golf of Funds Society.
During the event, which will be held on October 14th and 15th at the Ritz Carlton Golf Resort in Naples, the company will present “Emerging Market Equities” by Daniel J. Graña, CFA, portfolio manager of Emerging Markets who will be share the presentation with Matthew Culley, assistant portfolio manager, at the same team.
The Janus Henderson Emerging Markets Fund aims to provide a return, from a combination of capital growth and income over the long term. The Fund invests at least two-thirds of its assets in shares (equities) and equity-related securities of companies, of any size, in any industry, in emerging markets, according to the firm information.
For more information and/or to register for the Investments Summit 2021, follow this link.
Cybersecurity services are more relevant than ever due to the adoption of interconnected technologies. Jeff Spiegel, our megatrends expert, delves into the new long-term investment opportunities as digitization continues to expand.
Over the past year or more, a shift from the office to remote work drove digitalization more than any previous year. Companies underwent a digital evolution overnight, fighting to stay competitive in the face of the global disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the biggest challenges was ensuring the security of enterprise networks.
Today, hybrid work is here to stay, and cybersecurity is a big consideration for companies’ business plans. In 2020 alone, the demand for new digital products and services increased by 76% and is estimated to grow to 83% by the end of 20211. Online security and digitization issues are already part of companies’ growth plans, opening the door to long-term opportunities for investors.
“The sector’s growth potential is driven by strong technology adoption globally. Global spending on information security and risk management technology is forecast to exceed $150 billion in 20212, up 12% from last year and 50 times more than four years ago“3 – Jeff Spiegel, US Head of BlackRock Megatrend, International and Sector ETFs
The hidden face of technological progress
Digitized companies were more resilient during the pandemic globally, and technology is expected to continue to be a growth driver moving forward. It is estimated that companies using digital tools can expect their profit margins to increase, on average, by 12% to 20% globally4.
However, the adoption of digital technologies has also paved the way for the proliferation of cybercrime. In 2020 alone, malware attacks (malicious software) more than tripled as compared with 2019, and ransomware attacks (the virtual extortion of companies) more than quadrupled5.
Any company, large or small, that uses servers to store information is at risk of cyber-attacks. Thus, the growing demand for cybersecurity services has resulted in a boom of companies offering this type of services.
Fad or trend?
The world is making great leaps and bounds towards a connected reality in both the organizational nature of companies and the habits of their employees. As more systems move to the cloud and rely on global networks, the need to ensure data security and privacy will continue to increase.
“Evidence of the impact of megatrends is all around us, reflected in products, services and movements with profound transformative potential. They are expected to reshape our personal and professional routines for decades to come. Identifying transformative investment themes offers the potential for significant long-term growth.” – Jeff Spiegel, Head of iShares Megatrend and International ETFs for the United States.
Investing in cybersecurity
The struggle to create a safer cyberspace is a global priority. The rise of cybersecurity, cloud security and information technology services companies is an opportunity to take advantage of the changes already materializing over the past year and a half.
“Our megatrend Active and Index Funds are based on BlackRock’s conception of long-term trends that can change the trajectory of the global economy. These powerful transformative forces, from artificial intelligence to genomics to clean energy, are changing societal priorities, driving innovation and redefining business models.” – Jeff Spiegel, US Head of BlackRock Megatrend, International and Sector ETFs
Investing in products nestled under the technological breakthrough megatrend functions as a portfolio diversifier that allows for greater resilience and exposure to long-term returns.
“Megatrend indexes are less constrained in their inclusion criteria than traditional sectors, potentially allowing them to better keep pace with the rapidly changing boundaries of the global economy. This investment approach allows earlier exposure to potentially disruptive companies than conventional indexes, as they are organized around business activities, not growth stages.” – Jeff Spiegel, US Head of BlackRock Megatrend, International and Sector ETFs
iShares megatrends ETFs within the technological breakthrough category provide exposure to companies that are developing technologies in the fields of cybersecurity, as well as to additional components of the megatrend such as digitization, smart infrastructure, telecommuting, automation and robotics.
As a US Offshore Investor, you can access Megatrends through Active and Index Solutions with BlackRock. See our Funds that provide exposure to CyberSecurity:
Disclaimer In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx
Thornburg will be featured at the Funds Society’s Seventh Investment Summit & Golf with a conference on “Bond Investing in a Low Yield Environment” by the client portfolio manager, Robert Costello, CFA.
At the event to be held October 14th and 15th at the Ritz Carlton Golf Resort in Naples, Costello will present both the Thornburg Limited Term and the Thornburg Strategic Income.
Thornburg Limited Term Income Fund is a flexible, actively managed, core portfolio of high-quality U.S. dollar-denominated bonds. This centerpiece investment-grade portfolio seeks a reasonable level of income and lower volatility than some peers, without overextending in the pursuit of yield.
Thornburg Strategic Income Fund is a global, income-oriented fund with a flexible mandate focused on paying an attractive, sustainable yield. The portfolio invests in a combination of income-producing securities with an emphasis on higher-yielding fixed income.
For more information and/or to register for the Investments Summit 2021, follow this link.
The new GPs that have come to Mexico to offer global private equity investments to institutional investors as of September 2021 have been: Stepstone Group (under the LOCK3PI ticker) and Oaktree Capital (OAKPI). Stepstone issued commitments for USD $400 million, while Oaktree for $224 million.
Among the recurring issuers for 2021 are: Walton Street Capital, General Atlantic, Thor Urbana and Lock. With these names, there are now 21 global and local GPs that have issued CERPIs.
Among the main issuers of CERPIs (listed by called capital) are: Harbourvest, Lock, Spruceview, General Atlantic, Blackrock and KKR.
At less than three months before the end of 2021, the committed capital of the 24 new CKDs (6) and CERPIs (18) is USD $2,543M of which USD $406M corresponds to investments in local private capital (CKDs) and USD $2,137M in global investments (CERPIs). The called capital is USD $120M for local investments vs USD $154M for global investments.
When comparing the issuances of the CKDs vs the CERPIs of 2021, it is worth highlighting:
In the CKDs, committed capital is less than one fifth of the amount of CERPIs (USD $406M vs USD $2,137M), showing the greater interest for global private capital investments versus local.
The initial capital call of CERPIS have been remarkably lower than that of the CKDs in 2021 (7% vs 30%). CERPIs have been shown to call the minimum necessary, while CKDs have not been so prudent.
In the CERPIs, the figures as of September show that the total committed capital is already higher than the previous year (USD $2,137M in September vs USD $1,924M in 2020). In 2019, CERPI issuances reached USD $2,668M, while in 2018 it was USD $5,017M which represents the maximum level reached by the CERPIs (and first year institutional LPs invested in the structures).
Highlights from the local and global GPs of 2021:
Local issuers of recurring CKDs (FINSA, Walton Street Capital, Infraestructura México and Grupo Renovables Agrícolas).
Global issuers of recurring CERPIs (General Atlantic and Lock).
Local issuers that open their existing portfolio to global private equity investments using CERPIs (Thor Urbana, Walton Street Capital).
New global issuers of CERPIs that bring their global strategy (Stepstone with ticker symbol LOCK3PI, as well as Oaktree Capital).
In the list of potential issuers, that are in application and process of issuance there are two new local issuers of CKDs seeking to issue (DD3 and Finpro), while the potential issuers of CERPIs are Walton Street and Lock.
Everything indicates that 2021 will be an important year in the structuring and fundraising of vehicles for global private equity investments, and that new global issuers will continue to arrive to Mexico.
BroadSpan Capital has announced the expansion of its operations in Latin America through the establishment of a presence in Mexico City and the hiring of senior banker Luis Camarena as Managing Director and Head of Mexico.
In a press release, the firm has revealed that, through these efforts, it will expand its capacity to deliver its core Restructuring Advisory and M&A Advisory services to clients in Mexico as well as further facilitate cross border transactions for clients based in other markets.
Prior to joining BroadSpan, Camarena headed the Mexico operations of European investment banking firm Alantra for three years. Before that, he was a Director of Rothschild’s Mexico team for over eight years where he led numerous successful restructurings and M&A transactions. Camarena also worked at both Lehman Brothers and JP Morgan in the Investment Banking groups in Mexico City, Monterrey, and New York.
“We are delighted to bring Luis into the BroadSpan structure. It is rare to find a banker of his caliber that has not only the proven restructuring and M&A track record, but also successful experience working in both the bulge bracket and boutique environments. A fantastic fit for all parties,” said Mike Gerrard, BroadSpan’s CEO.
Meanwhile, Camarena claimed to be excited to join a team of bankers with “an unmatched level” of experience and track record that has successfully built a true US-Latin American IB platform. “BroadSpan’s top ranked restructuring practice and longstanding leadership in cross border M&A will bring significant value to our clients as we expand in what is the second largest economy in Latin America”, he added.
Founded in 2001, BroadSpan Capital is an independent investment banking firm that provides corporations, partnerships and government institutions with advice related to mergers & acquisitions and financial restructuring in Latin America and the Caribbean. It has offices in Miami, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Mexico City and Bogota and through affiliate offices located in 30 countries around the world.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Jupiter amplía su equipo de crédito estadounidense con la apertura de una oficina en Nueva York
Jupiter Asset Managementhas announced the launch of a new, New York-based US credit hub, increasing the research capacity of its 13 billion dollars’ global unconstrained fixed income strategy and deepening analytical coverage of the world’s largest, most liquid market.
In a press release, the firm has revealed that three Jupiter employees, including two newly appointed team members, will be based in the office, evolving the firm’s US credit coverage from its current focused and selective approach to a deeper and more extensive analytical cover. “With the office designed as an idea-generation hub for Jupiter’s UK-based fixed income strategy, the team will have no initial requirement for order raising or trading capability”, they add.
Dedicated US credit research team
The New York-based team will be led by experienced US Credit Analyst and US national Joel Ojdana, who joined the company in London in July 2018 and moved back to the United States with the opening of Jupiter’s Denver office in October 2020. With over thirteen years’ experience in fixed income investing, the asset manager believes that Ojdana has made “a meaningful contribution” to the firm’s US credit research – an important pillar of Jupiter’s unconstrained bond offering, led by Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, Ariel Bezalel.
With Ojdana in the credit hub will be David Rowe and Jordan Sonnenberg, who have joined the company as Credit Analysts this month. Rowe joins Jupiter from JP Morganwhere he has worked as an Analyst on theLeveraged Loans & High Yield Credit Trading Desk for the last two years, while Sonnenberg joins from Deutsche Bank, where he has spent five years on the company’s High Yield Credit Research team, most recently as a High Yield Credit Research Associate covering the industrials, paper & packaging and chemicals sectors.
In their new roles, both will work closely with Jupiter’s 10-strong London-based credit research team, including Credit Analyst Charlie Spelina, who joined Jupiter in 2017 to spearhead the company’s US credit research. Besides, they will report into Ojdana and to Luca Evangelisti, Jupiter’s UK-based Head of Credit Research.
Jupiter AM has pointed out that the team will focus onhigh-yield credit research, feeding into the idea generation process for its global unconstrained bond offering, including the flagship Jupiter Dynamic Bond (SICAV). In addition, their work will also feed into the research process across Jupiter’s broader fixed income strategy, including the Jupiter Global High Yield Fund, with a longer-term scope for evolving the company’s product range in this area.
Meanwhile, Stephen Pearson, CIO, addedthat as Jupiter’s Fixed Income strategy continues to go from strength to strength, it is “vitally important” to invest in their people and infrastructure. “David and Jordan’s experience in the US credit market make them the ideal candidates to further expand the team’s wealth of regional expertise, building on the meaningful contribution Joel’s work in the US has already made to the team’s investment process”, he concluded.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAutor: Alexas_Photos. Franklin Templeton compra el equipo de Crédito Investment Grade de Aviva Investors
Franklin Templeton has announced the talent acquisition of Aviva Investors’ US-based Investment Grade Credit team. This means that senior portfolio managers Josh Lohmeier and Michael Cho will join Franklin Templeton Fixed Income (FTFI). In addition, Tom Meyers, previously Aviva’s Head of Americas Client Solutions, will join FTFI in a newly created role as SVP, Senior Director of Investments and Strategy Development, Fixed Income.
In a press release, the asset manager has revealed that Meyers, Lohmeier and the full investment team are expected to join by the end of 2021. Lohmeier and Meyers will report to Sonal Desai, CIO at FTFI, and the investment team will continue to report to Lohmeier.
The Investment Grade Credit team currently manages over 7.5 billion dollars in institutional assets under management at Aviva, across its suite of investment grade credit strategies, including US Investment Grade Credit, US Long Duration Credit, US Long Duration Government/Credit, and US Intermediate Credit, with additional customized versions of each strategy for various institutional clients. The asset manager has clarified that Aviva clients in these strategies will have the opportunity to continue to have the team manage their assets at Franklin Templeton.
“Bringing this experienced team aboard will complement our existing credit capabilities by further deepening our expertise in investment grade credit, strengthening our research and analysis resources, and expanding our strategy offerings and capabilities further into the institutional marketplace, with a special focus on defined benefit and liability-driven investing,” said Desai.
“I look forward to working with Josh and the team to bolster and differentiate our investment grade credit offerings, and with Tom to bring this messaging to our clients and consultants, especially in the institutional arena”, she added.
Excess returns through all market cycles
Franklin Templeton has highlighted that this Investment Grade Credit team uses a differentiated portfolio construction process that breaks down and analyzes credit markets in distinctive ways in order to uncover additional opportunities for alpha and risk reduction for clients. Utilizing a custom risk framework and allocation system, the team aims to consistently deliver positive and uncorrelated excess returns through all market cycles, regardless of the direction of credit spreads, with a focus on downside protection.
Lohmeier claimed to be “thrilled” to continue to grow the substantial client interest they have seen in their investment grade credit strategy, now with Franklin Templeton. “Portfolio construction sets the strategy apart from its peers and is a key driver of its non-correlation. Our time-tested process is designed to add value by creating a more efficient portfolio and allocating to the best credit ideas”, he said.
Franklin Templeton believes that the team’s approach and expertise are complementary to its existing active quant investment process, which combines fundamental research-based active management with quantitative analysis and data science. In addition, the team’s investment philosophy and culture, built on the belief that a quantitative enhancement to fundamental research leads to more consistent and repeatable alpha generation, strongly aligns with FTFI’s existing culture.
“In the current environment, and especially within fixed income, we believe clients are looking for crisp differentiation and consistency,” said Meyers. “I look forward to working with Josh to continue to articulate the benefits of the investment grade credit strategies, and with the broader Franklin Templeton Fixed Income team in connecting clients with investment strategies that meet their diverse needs.”
Franklin Templeton Fixed Income has 156 billion dollars in assets under management, with approximately 13 billion of that in corporate credit strategies, as of August 31, 2021. The firm’s existing Corporate Credit Research Team comprises 31 investment professionals, organized by region.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAutor: Free-Photos. Reapertura de EE. UU.
U.S. equities marched higher in August as the S&P 500 logged its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Markets responded favorably to a strong earnings season, stable central bank monetary policy, and robust infrastructure spending. Despite the positive headlines, investors remain cautious over inflation dampening profit margins and companies’ passing those higher prices to consumers.
Although 53% of Americans are fully vaccinated, concerns remain over the impact of the Delta variant on the unvaccinated portion of the population. Efforts to administer a booster shot have received FDA approval, which aim to bolster the efficacy of those vaccinated earlier this year. Additional shutdowns remain unlikely and the market appears to have already discounted a cautionary re-opening scenario with travel and leisure stocks shedding some of their gains.
Continued focus remains on the Fed and their stance on monetary policy in response to higher inflation rates. Although recent discussions of potential implementation of tapering have been non-material, the market remains cognizant of potential action being taken by the Fed should these concerns persist.
Although our approach to picking stocks always evolves – we still often video conference with management teams even though we are back in the office – we remain true to the founding fundamental research process and PMV with a Catalyst™ methodology of our firm. As Value Investors, we will continue to use the current market volatility as an opportunity to buy attractive companies, which have positive free cash flows, healthy balance sheets and are trading at discounted prices.
Mergers and acquisitions activity remained vibrant in August with $480 billion in announced deals, an increase of 44% compared to 2020.
The global convertible market bounced back in August with positive returns and an uptick in issuance. Returns were mostly driven by positive underlying equity performance for the month. The return of issuance was also a positive development after a relatively slow July. Pricing improved and we anticipate the pace of issuance to accelerate through the fall. The fundamental reasons for increased convertible issuance are still quite intact with low interest rates, increasing equity prices, and favorable tax environments available to most potential issuers.
_________________________________________
To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552 Class I EUR – LU0687944396 Class A USD – LU0687943745 Class A EUR – LU0687943661 Class R USD – LU1453360825 Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648 Class I EUR – LU1216601564 Class A USD – LU1216600913 Class A EUR – LU1216600673 Class R USD – LU1453359900 Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
Disclaimer: The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainBajos rendimientos de la renta fija. Bajos rendimientos de la renta fija
As investors look across the world for opportunity and challenges within the fixed income asset class, it’s important to note that real yields are at historic lows in high quality fixed income markets.
In addition, spreads are at some of the lowest levels that we’ve seen in history. This is not a time to take undue risk within fixed income. At the same time, it’s important to see that the role of fixed income in asset allocators’ portfolios is changing. Because those real yields are so low, and yet because the opportunity in markets from a volatility perspective is rising, an investor must be significantly nimbler these days than to merely clip a coupon.
In the current market environment, we’re generally positioning our fixed income portfolios to take less risk given low real yields and low spreads. There are still areas of opportunity. As is often true in investing, investors continually fight the last war. Consumer balance sheets, particularly in the United States, are overlooked by some. To the contrary, we believe consumer balance sheets in the United States are quite strong. The real challenges are consumer balance sheets outside the United States and the corporate and sovereign bonds that are exposed to that weakness.
Outside of the U.S., we have seen an incredible penchant for spending, most notably on the sovereign front where government expenditures rose precipitously with Covid-related social spending programs. Of course, this is coming at a time when government revenues are at record lows due to lack of tax revenues with subdued economic activity. As with corporates, the recipe of a higher debt load with a lower P&L is not a comfortable dynamic, especially if prolonged.
Investors gave governments the benefit of the doubt through 2020 with the hope that 2021 would bring some austerity. That has not been the case. We are now left with a larger public sector deficit and a higher debt load. Therefore, we are not surprised that we have seen the largest number of sovereign rating downgrades in the 21st century by nearly 200% (captured below).
When Will the Fed Move?
One interesting development in markets over the course of the past quarter has been that rates have fallen, not just in the United States, but in many places across the globe. This is at odds with high inflation and high growth prints, as well as an improving labor market. A remarkable instance of the market trying to outguess the Federal Reserve.
Despite questions around the Fed’s commitment to keeping rates lower for longer, investors have seen that they have been very clear and resolute. The Fed’s plan to raise rates and taper bond purchases is on schedule for later this year.
Although the Fed is still active in markets, the economic bump in the road due to the Delta variant makes it apparent that rates cannot rise monotonically towards 2 or 3+ percent. However, as we look at the intermediate term, and we see incredible amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus still in the system, growth should continue to be good and curves should continue to steepen. While the Fed and other central banks are anchoring rates at the front end, the long end can rise especially as that taper gets closer and closer.
No Global Lock-Step Market Movements Likely
As we look across the globe, there are a variety of different situations and potential opportunities. Emerging markets is a varied landscape: from China which has a significant virus lockdown and has seen an early cycle growth stage, earlier than other countries; to places like Brazil, where vaccination rates are much more challenging and resulting growth has been pushed into the future. At some point, we’re going to see vaccines continue to take hold, and that should be a boost for growth. But is there an opportunity today before we see restored domestic demand, particularly in a healthier local consumer?
Outside the U.S., we cannot apply a blanket policy to risk. Corporate bonds offer a glimmer of hope. There are many corporates in EM who benefit from the global cycle vs domestic demand. In other words, they are exposed to the aforementioned healthy consumer/corporates we have in the United States. Because of this, we have seen leverage, interest coverage, and cashflow generation improve with global reflation.
The key in EM is making sure there are built-in hedges to the business (input costs, currency, interest rate) that can help weather global economic swings or offer defensive narratives. With these, we can capture EM spread levels which have lagged both U.S. and the Euro area (see below) while limiting our exposure to typical EM dynamics like cyclicality, currency depreciation and earnings volatility.
With that in mind, we have continued to move our portfolios to a risk-off stance but with a focus on the strength of consumer and corporate balance sheets and the underwriting of fixed income in those sectors.
One last note is we need to look at the market every day, and do, because we never know what day volatility will rear its head. These are times when a nimble and wholistic approach to fixed income management really comes into its own.
Jason Brady, CFA, is President and CEO at Thornburg Investment Management.
Ayman Ahmed is a Senior Fixed Income Analyst at Thornburg Investment Management.
Important Information
The views expressed are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. This information should not be relied upon as a recommendation or investment advice and is not intended to predict the performance of any investment or market.
This is not a solicitation or offer for any product or service. Nor is it a complete analysis of every material fact concerning any market, industry, or investment. Data has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Thornburg makes no representations as to the completeness or accuracy of such information and has no obligation to provide updates or changes. Thornburg does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein.
Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal.
Outside the United States
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Please see our glossary for a definition of terms.
Foto cedidaNicolas Chaput, consejero delegado (CEO) de ODDO BHF AM.. ODDO BHF AM compra Metropole Gestión, firma especializada en gestión value
ODDO BHF Asset Management and Metropole Gestion have announced their merger. In a press release, they have revealed that ODDO BHF AM has acquired 100% of the equity capital of this independent French asset manager specializing in value investing, which was founded in 2002 by François-Marie Wojcik and Isabel Levy. The transaction is still subject to approval by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).
In their view, this link-up will avail clients of both companys of “a unique investment style” that has been implemented for over 20 years by a “stable and dedicated team” led by Isabel Levy and Ingrid Trawinski.
Specifically, the expertise of Metropole Gestion will enrich ODDO BHF AM’s existing product offering. Both investment firms have already placed environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria at the heart of their investment processes for several years now.
Meanwhile, Metropole Gestion’s fund range will benefit from ODDO BHF AM’s European distribution capacities, particularly in France, Germany, and Switzerland, with institutional clients, distributors and independent financial advisors. Meanwhile, the merger will give ODDO BHF AM’s strategies access to distribution in the US and UK, where Metropole Gestion is already present.
“In almost 20 years, Metropole Gestion has built up renowned know-how in value-oriented investment style, thanks to the trust that investors have placed in it, and backed by a highly skilled and devoted team. This know-how will be the cornerstone of the greater reach it will have within the framework of this merger”, said Francois-Marie Wojcik, Chairman and CEO of Metropole Gestion.
Isabel Levy, Deputy CEO and Chief Investment Officer of the independent firm comment that this merger addresses their wish to join up with “an ambitious business strategy” by combining teams with “renowned and complementary skills and similar cultures.”
Lastly, Nicolas Chaput, CEO of ODDO BHF AM claimed to be “very pleased” to welcome the Metropole Gestion team, whom they know well and for whom they have “the utmost respect”. “The value-oriented investment style implemented by Isabel’s and Ingrid’s teams will enrich the Group’s product offering and meet the expectations of many of our clients”, he concluded.
