HSBC Asset Management Hires a New Climate Technology Team

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. HSBC AM incorpora un equipo especializado en tecnología climática y prepara un primer fondo de capital riesgo

HSBC Asset Management has hired a Climate Technology (Climatech) team as part of its strategy to expand direct investment capabilities in alternatives. The new team will develop a venture capital investment strategy providing clients with opportunities to invest globally in technology startups who are addressing the challenges of climate change.

In a press release, the asset manager revealed that the strategy will focus on companies across the energy, transportation, insurance, agriculture and supply chain sectors. The first fund is planned to be launched before the end of the year with an intended cornerstone investment from HSBC.

The team will report to Remi Bourrette, Head of Venture and Growth Investments, who arrived at the firm last year from HSBC Global Banking and Markets. As for the new recruits, Christophe Defert joins as Head of Climate Technology Venture Investments. He has over 16 years’ experience in investment banking, private equity, corporate M&A, energy contracts and venture capital. Before joining HSBC Asset Management, he spent 10 years at Centrica where he most recently built and led Centrica Innovations’ Venture effort globally.

Also Michael D’Aurizio has been appointed Investment Director, Climate Technology. He has over 10 years’ experience in power, utilities, and clean energy including business strategy and venture capital, and previously led Centrica Innovations’ US activities.

“Technology will play a major role in enabling the energy transition, funded by public money, private capital and philanthropic commitments like HSBC’s Climate Solutions Partnership with the World Resources Institute and WWF. The appointment of this team will allow us to provide clients with early exposure to sectors which are just emerging as such, but will become major sources of financial and environmental value over the decade”, Joanna Munro, Global CIO at HSBC Asset Management, commented.

In 2020, HSBC Asset Management set out its strategy to re-position the business as a core solutions and specialist emerging markets, Asia and alternatives focused asset manager, with client centricity, investment excellence and sustainable investing as key enablers. The firm currently manages 45 billion dollars in alternatives strategies.

Aberdeen Standard Investments: “Higher Yields and Lower Duration Risk Has Been Beneficial for Investors in Frontier Bonds 2021”

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Aberdeen Standard Investments is confident that frontier market bonds represent a compelling investing opportunity in a diversified portfolio, considering the low level of interest rates worldwide.

Among the main features of this asset class, we could mention its decorrelation versus Treasuries, which is especially interesting if yields continue its upward trend and if the ghost of inflation remains in place. But also, because of the decorrelation we could find among the different local currencies of frontier markets.

Kevin Daly, fund manager of the Aberdeen Standard SICAV I – Frontier Markets Bond Fund, explains in this interview with Funds Society why he thinks the risk/return profile of this asset class is interesting compared to other emerging market assets, especially government bonds or equities.

Why is the present market environment a suitable opportunity to invest in frontier markets? Given their growth, the level of volatility and risk and the potential reflationary situation.

There are several reasons why I believe frontier bonds remain attractive. Firstly, higher carry compared to mainstream Emerging Markets (EM) and lower duration risk, explains outperformance amid rising US Treasury yields. Angola is my top pick in terms of USD bonds, as they have very moderate external liabilities coming due over the next several years following China and DSSI [The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative] relief in 2020. High oil prices will also result in an improving fiscal outlook and declining debt levels. With spreads of 650-725 investors can access an attractive risk premium for a country with improving credit metrics and low issuance needs. Having said that, I would expect Angola to return the market in 2022 if spreads continue to decline.

We continue to see good value in Sub-Sahara Africa bonds such as Ivory Coast, Senegal, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Gabon. We are also maintaining a 2% position in Ecuador, which surged after the election result last month. Egypt remains our top pick in local markets given the high real and nominal rates, and stable currency. Ghana, Ukraine, Kazakshtan, Kenya and Uganda are other local markets where we see value.

What about the risks?

The main risk for frontiers is higher default risk over the medium term, as we could have more countries opting for the Common Framework [debt relief beyond the DSSI] if they don’t address fiscal and debt vulnerabilities.

What do these markets offer in terms of advantages over emerging markets and from a decorrelation and diversification point of view?

Higher yields and lower duration risk compared to mainstream EM has been beneficial for investors in frontier bonds 2021. I would expect that to remain intact during the year. Rising commodity prices is another factor why some frontier credits have performed well in 2021.

What is the current level of flows to these markets and how might they evolve over the course of the year?

Flows into EM funds have been pretty strong at around $32bn, of which half is hard currency funds. Using a straight line benchmark assumption, that suggests around $2.5-3bn have gone into frontier hard currency bonds.  

 And in terms of expected valuation evolution?

Spreads on frontier hard currency sovereign bonds are currently 540bp over USTs, and while they’ve tightened around 60bp this year, they are still 120bp wide of their 2020 lows. So I believe there’s still decent value, although I would not expect spreads to revisit 2020 lows until we have a better picture on the impact from the pandemic, and some improvement on the fiscals and debt levels.     

What role do local currencies play in investing in these markets and specifically in your investment philosophy?

Local currency provides higher carry and in some cases defensive characteristics compared to hard currency, as was the case during the peak of the pandemic in 2020 when hard currency sold off sharply due to huge outflows from mutual funds that invest in those bond. However, there’s very little mutual fund investment in frontier local markets. When it comes to portfolio construction, we take a bottom up approach, and we will look at the relative value between hard and local currency bonds that will dictate how we want to be positioned in that particular country.  

Why Aberdeen Standard SICAV I Frontier Markets Bond?

We have the resources and long track record investing in frontier markets. Among our four dedicated frontier bond strategies, we have a highly diversified approach as our fund has traditionally invested in HC, LC and corporates. We can also demonstrate a consistent long-term track record.

China’s Bond Market Comes of Age for Global Investment Funds

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Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPekín. Pekín

The trajectory of the onshore Chinese bond market has been positive over recent years with increasing inflows.  Eight percent of the market is already owned by offshore investors, which includes about 3% foreign ownership, and this is up from virtually 0% just 5 years ago. The IMF SDR (’15), the JPM GBI-EM (Feb ’20) and the FTSE WGBI (Oct ’21) have all created demand for local Chinese bonds and Bond Connect has helped create a path to satisfy that demand, with average daily trading volume in April at RMB24.7 billion.

However, as with most things, it takes time – time for funds to recognize that the benefits outweigh the costs (operational, execution, setup) and time to get approval to trade in the onshore market as an offshore participant.  

If Bond Connect were easier to deploy, more funds in the US, Europe and Japan would have pre-positioned in the lead-up to China bonds being included in the FTSE Russell WGBI. Once funds are greenlit, it will be a steep trajectory for inflows. With that, investors will see more strategies oriented towards offshore investors and a huge push for green bond issuance (already 13% of the market and the 2nd largest green bond market in the world) which is a major topic for investors in the west.

Given China’s ambitious net-zero carbon target by 2060, the country will require trillions of yuan in new investments to revamp its carbon-intensive economy and energy system over the coming four decades. This will pique the interest of many funds given the average yield of Chinese green bonds was 3.44% as of March 31st, compared to 0.58% for the Barclays MSCI Global Green Bond Index.

 

Gráfico 1

Source:  Goldman Sachs

China debt inclusion in the Russell flagship benchmark (FTSE Russell WGBI) will be a gamechanger in terms of foreign investors’ strategic allocations.The inclusion can’t be ignored, as an estimated $2-4 trillion in assets follow this index. It will make China the sixth largest market by weight and will have the second highest country group yield in the FTSE World Government Bond Index (WGBI) behind only Mexico, but with a much larger weight (5.25% vs .6%) thereby pushing the overall index yield up 15bps. It may not sound significant, but it is, considering the whole index only yields 32bps today.  Monthly passive inflows will likely total US$5-7.5bn a month (3x today’s pace) from October 2021.

There will likely be a 36-month phase in after that (in-line with previous inclusions). We should expect an acceleration of inflows (2x today’s pace) which could lead to a market driven compression of yields which was the case when Malaysia and Mexico were added to the index in 2007 and 2010, respectively.

 The inclusion also provides a stamp of approval around liquidity, policy transparency and currency management that have kept many offshore managers at bay for years. For many funds, navigating the local landscape was a daunting prospect. With this inclusion, the prospect is far less scary.

 

Gráfico 2

Source:  Goldman Sachs

 

The Chinese government’s management of Covid-19 along with recent policy changes have made its bond market more attractive to institutional investors. While policy makers elsewhere were cutting funding rates, expanding balance sheets and increasing fiscal spend, Chinese counterparts were more austere, and in some cases, they even tightened policy. The goods and digital economy in China far outweigh the service economy so less structural support was needed.

 Why does this matter? Chinese rates were stable and even higher in absolute terms while bond yields were plummeting elsewhere with some credit fundamentals deteriorating. The Covid-19 pandemic has really been a goldilocks situation for Chinese bonds. After the initial shock of the pandemic, investors started to realize China offered a unique opportunity and we saw flows into Chinese local bonds ramp up in the second half of 2020.

Default risk in China has always been more about refinancing risk than leverage. Seventy-six companies have roughly $50bn of repayment pressure over the coming months. Moody’s forecasts the trailing 12-month default rate for these firms will fall to 3.5% at year-end from 7.4% at the end of 2020. Continued supportive fiscal and monetary policies and better pandemic containment with vaccination rollouts also play a role in the improvement.

Still, weaker firms’ funding channels “could be restricted” following guidance last month from China’s supervisor of state-owned assets regarding bonds’ proportion of total debt at riskier firms.

 In the private credit sector, there can be too much gearing, forex risk, and/or secular headwinds. This risk is far easier for international investors to tolerate, understand and navigate than the SOE risk. If a company has 8x debt to EBITDA and a majority of that is in FX despite most income being in local currency, there is potential solvency risk. It’s high yield for a reason.

Regulators have stepped in to limit home price growth and home development. That means the property names that grew unchecked for years by accessing cheap financing in USD and using it to amass disproportionately large land banks, now find themselves on the wrong side of regulation. These corporations have a lot of assets that they cannot offload or develop along with acute debt service costs.  

Regarding SOEs, bank regulators are doing what they can to limit future default risk by guiding the so-called zombie corporations towards insolvency. By doing so, they are pruning fundamentally impaired institutions before they become a systemic issue and cause contagion. We applaud these measures. Coal names come to mind most readily with the default of Yongcheng in late 2020 just weeks after they issued bonds. Fortunately, it was only RMB 1 billion, so it wasn’t a systemic issue. SOEs have some 5.4 trillion yuan of bonds maturing this year. Net bond financing has been negative for more than a dozen provinces since Yongcheng Coal’s default in November.

 

Ayman Ahmed is a Senior Fixed Income Analyst at Thornburg Investment Management.

 

 

 

Important Information

 

The views expressed are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. This information should not be relied upon as a recommendation or investment advice and is not intended to predict the performance of any investment or market.

 

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Founded in 1982, Thornburg Investment Management is a privately-owned global investment firm that offers a range of multi-strategy solutions for institutions and financial advisors around the world. A recognized leader in fixed income, equity, and alternatives investing, the firm oversees US$45 billion ($43.3 billion in assets under management and $1.8 billion in assets under advisement) as of 31 December 2020 across mutual funds, institutional accounts, separate accounts for high-net-worth investors, and UCITS funds for non-U.S. investors. Thornburg is headquartered in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, with additional offices in London, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

 

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Gregor Hirt, New Global CIO for Multi Asset at Allianz GI

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Foto cedidaGregor Hirt, nuevo director de inversiones global de multiactivos de Allianz GI.. Gregor Hirt, nombrado director de inversiones global de multiactivos de Allianz GI

Allianz Global Investors has announced in a press release the appointment of Gregor Hirt as Global CIO for Multi Asset as of July 1. He will be based in Frankfurt and report to Deborah Zurkow, Global Head of Investments.

In his new role, Hirt will work closely with the firm’s Multi Asset experts in Europe, Asia and the US to ensure Allianz GI continues to strategically develop and grow its Multi Asset business in areas of client demand, including risk management strategies and multi asset liquid alternatives.

Hirt brings 25 years of experience in Multi Asset investing from both a wealth management and asset management perspective. He joins from Deutsche Bank, where he has been Global Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management for the International Private Bank since 2019. Prior to that, he was Group Chief Strategist and Head of Multi Asset Solutions at Vontobel Asset Management, having also gained strong experience at UBS Asset Management, Schroders Investment Management and Credit Suisse.

“Allianz GI has a rich heritage in Multi Asset investing, with one of the strongest teams in the industry. Marrying the best of our deep expertise in both quantitative and fundamental approaches, while integrating ESG considerations, will be pivotal in ensuring that our offering is as successful for clients in the next generation as it has been in the past. With just the right mix of leadership experience, market insight and client understanding, we are delighted to be welcoming Greg. As well as significant experience across asset management and wealth management, he has deep appreciation for quantitative discipline while having a background in fundamental analysis”, highlighted Zurkow.

Allianz GI currently manages 152 billion euros in Multi Asset portfolios for retail and institutional clients around the world. AllianzGI’s Multi Asset investment approach combines a systematic assessment with the insights of fundamental analysis with the dual objective of mitigating risks and enhancing return potential for clients.

Managers Remain Optimistic about Mega Fund Launches in China

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Los gestores siguen siendo optimistas sobre los lanzamientos de megafondos en China

China is a major player in the global fund industry. Blockbuster fund initial public offerings (IPOs), which have seen popular new funds being oversubscribed and sold out within a day after sales commence, have become more common in the country over the past few years. While short-term investor sentiment has been hurt by the recent market downturn, Cerulli Associates points out in its latest analysis that the trend could resume over the long run.

China’s mutual fund assets under management, including that of ETFs, recorded robust year-on-year growth of 37.5% to reach 19.7 trillion renminbi (3 trillion dollars) in 2020. Total assets garnered through mutual fund IPOs reached 3.2 trillion renminbi, double the size in 2019. The average IPO volume of new funds also improved to 2.2 billion renminbi, compared to 1.5 billion in 2019.

Local media reports show that in 2020, over 100 new funds were sold out within one day after subscriptions commenced, and 15 of these IPOs successfully garnered assets of over 10 billion renminbi. “The trend continued in the beginning of 2021, according to China Fund News reports, when a total of 122 new mutual funds were rolled out in January, raising assets of almost 500 billion renminbi, the second largest monthly amount for IPO assets recorded in the market”, Cerulli says.

Among the factors behind blockbuster new fund launches the firm identified are optimistic investor sentiments, star managers with good track records, and sufficient liquidity in the market. Over the past few years, the Chinese government has introduced a series of monetary easing measures to stimulate the economy following the U.S.-China tensions and COVID-19 pandemic. “Part of the money supply went to the real economy and real estate market as traditional long-term investment vehicles for local residents, while the rest was available to asset management products. This created plenty of opportunities for mutual funds, as other investment products in general are not attractive enough”, they add.

In this sense, some managers Cerulli spoke with said that the fast-track fund approvals introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) have also facilitated their new fund launches. Extensive marketing efforts and digital distribution have also supported mega fund launches.

Following this year’s Chinese New Year holiday, the stock market plunge dampened investors’ interest in new fund launches. However, despite the potential challenge to fundraising, the firm’s analysis shows that managers focused on the long term are still upbeat about the industry’s prospects, and are “confident that mega fund launches will resume if the stock market turns bullish again”.

In Cerulli’s view, mutual funds’ long-term growth prospects should continue because profits earned by listed enterprises which survived COVID-19 will eventually enter the stock market, and funds have an inherent advantage over other financial products.

“The cooling of market sentiments is normal, and it is also an opportunity to educate small-ticket young investors who have not experienced many market cycles. As long as the recovery does not take too long and a bear market is avoided, the long-term outlook for mutual fund IPOs should remain positive”, said Ye Kangting, senior analyst at the firm.

Insigneo Continues its New York Expansion with the Hiring of Margaret Rivera

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Captura de Pantalla 2021-05-18 a la(s) 15
. Pexels

The independent investment advisory firm Insigneo continues to boost its New York network with the hiring of Margaret Rivera, who joins from Wells Fargo’s International office.

“Insigneo is continuing its New York City expansion, please welcome our new International Financial Advisor Margaret Rivera from Wells Fargo’s International office in NY. Margaret has been a financial advisor covering clients across the globe for over 29 years”, reads the company’s posting on its LinkedIn profile.

Rivera started in the financial services industry at Smith Barney in New York. She spent the majority of her career at Chase Investment Services and at Citi International, where she worked for 17 years before joining Wells Fargo.

“Margaret brings a wealth of experience in international markets to our new Insigneo NY office in Midtown Manhattan, she is a great addition to our team. We are looking forward to working with her and continuing to expand our footprint in New York City”, said Jose Salazar, Head of Business Development for the US Offshore market at Insigneo.

Meanwhile, Rivera claimed to be “very pleased” to be part of an expansion which “truly caters” to the international client. “I am reunited once again with former colleagues from Citigroup and Wells, and most importantly: my clients won’t have to worry on any business model changes because International is the core model for Insigneo. It is perfect all around and it just feels right”, she insisted.

This appointment comes after the recent opening by Insigneo of a new office located in midtown Manhattan and the hiring of Alden Baxter and Adelina Rodriguez.

Listed Infrastructure’s Crucial Role in the Clean Energy Transition

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. Pictet AM

It is in one area in particular where listed infrastructure is emerging as a viable alternative to its private counterpart: clean energy. 

It’s abundantly clear that renewables and sustainability-related sectors will be a magnet for infrastructure investment in the coming years. Both governments and an increasing number of large multinational corporations have committed to ambitious carbon reduction targets in the post-Covid era.

This will require trillions of dollars of capital to be re-directed to clean energy assets. The shift was already gathering momentum prior to the public health crisis. 

In the year before the pandemic, the renewables sector had accounted for the largest share of private-sector infrastructure investment. It drew in more than USD40 billion in new capital in 2019 alone – or over 40 per cent of the total amount invested in infrastructure that year. This is up from 20 per cent at the start of the decade (1).

 

Pictet AM

That looks modest compared with what could unfold. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, cumulative investments in the energy system will need to increase 16 per cent to USD110 trillion between 2016 and 2050 from what’s currently planned to meet climate targets. 

If that happens, investment opportunities in the electrification and infrastructure segment – which includes power grids, EV charging networks and hydrogen or synthetic gas production facilities – could expand to as much as USD26 trillion by 2050. It is a similar picture in renewables.

Public infrastructure: gaining depth

And there are reasons to believe that the public market could attract a significant share of this capital.

The rise of blank-check financiers, popularly known as SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), is a crucial development in this regard.

SPACs start off with no assets and go public to pool capital with the intention of merging or acquiring targets. They provide a quicker and more efficient alternative for firms to raise capital than through a traditional public listing.  

According to US law firm Vinson & Elkins, the number of announced “de-SPAC” transactions by clean energy companies – or the post-IPO process of the SPAC and the target business combining into a publicly traded operating company – set a record in 2021 while IPOs of energy transition SPACs have been equally robust.

Among the most popular industries targeted by SPACs are electric/alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle autonomy and grid-level battery storage (2).

The V&E report adds: “with projected capital requirements to meet carbon goals and deep investor appetite for these investments, activity to date may be but a prelude to even more robust activity over the next decade.”

The average clean-energy SPAC is estimated to have an anticipated enterprise value – a measure of a company’s potential takeover value – of USD1.8 billion (3).

Traditional IPOs in the clean energy industry are also strong in some regions. In Spain, partly in response to the EU’s green recovery investment plan, at least four companies, including Repsol, are working on possible IPOs of renewable assets this year.

Green infrastructure for impact

As the world accelerates efforts to decarbonise and become more resource efficient, listed infrastructure firms specialising in clean energy and sustainable solutions are both a complement and alternative to private assets.

Listed infrastructure stocks, especially in clean energy and sustainable sectors, also allow investors to align their investment return objectives with their environmental and social goals.

Pictet Clean Energy strategy: investing in energy transition

  • Pictet AM’s Clean Energy strategy is ideally placed as a complement for institutional investors looking for exposure in sustainable infrastructure. 
  • The strategy invests in companies supporting and benefiting from the energy transition. It aims to deliver long-term capital growth with a scope to outperform major global equity indices over a business cycle.
  • The strategy invests in broad and diversified clean energy segments, not only in renewable energy but also technologies, innovations and infrastructure supporting smart mobility, energy efficient buildings and efficient manufacturing.
  • Utilities and industrials make up at least 40 per cent of the portfolio.
  • About a third of the portfolio is directly exposed to infrastructure assets and investments, while the remaining has indirect exposure which should also benefit from growing inflows into green infrastructure.
  • The portfolio is nearly 100 per cent exposed to US President Joe Biden’s USD2 trillion stimulus.
  • Launched in 2007, Clean Energy strategy has a track record that is one of the longest in the industry. The experienced team that manage the Clean Energy strategy sit within our pioneering Thematic Equities team that manages around USD53 billion across a range of strategies.
  • Data as of 31/03/2021.

 

Opinion written by Xavier Chollet, Senior Investment Manager in the Thematic Equities Team co-managing the Clean Energy Strategy at Pictet Asset Management

 

Click here for more insights on clean and sustainable infrastructure

 

Notes: 

(1) Source: Global Infrastructure Hub. Investments combining debt (75%) and equity (25%) flows.

(2) Source: Vinsons and Elkins, 13.01.2021

(3) Shayle Kann, a San Francisco-based managing director at Energy Impact Partners, in an InterChange podcast entitled “The Cleantech SPAC Attack.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Información importante:

Este material va dirigido exclusivamente a inversores profesionales. Sin embargo, no deberá ser distribuido a ninguna persona o entidad que sea ciudadano o residente de cualquier lugar, estado, país o jurisdicción en el que dicha distribución, publicación o uso sea contrario a sus leyes o normativas. La información utilizada para la elaboración del presente documento se basa en fuentes que consideramos fiables, pero no se hace ninguna manifestación ni se da ninguna garantía en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de dichas fuentes. Cualquier opinión, estimación o previsión puede modificarse en cualquier momento sin previo aviso.  Los inversores deben leer el folleto o el memorándum de oferta antes de invertir en cualquier fondo gestionado por Pictet. El tratamiento fiscal depende de las circunstancias individuales de cada inversor y puede cambiar en el futuro.  Las rentabilidades pasadas no son indicativas de rentabilidades futuras.  El valor de las inversiones, así como la renta que generen, puede disminuir o aumentar y no está garantizado.  Es posible que usted no recupere el importe inicialmente invertido.

Este documento ha sido publicado en Suiza por Pictet Asset Management SA y en el resto del mundo por Pictet Asset Management Limited, sociedad autorizada y regulada por la Financial Conduct Authority, y no podrá reproducirse ni distribuirse, ni parcialmente ni en su totalidad, sin su autorización previa.

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Pictet Asset Management: It’s in the Price

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Luca Paolini Pictet AM

Just four months into 2021, global equity markets have already hit our targets for the year (returns of 10 per cent). That and tentative signs that economic and corporate earnings growth may be peaking has led us to take some profits. We therefore downgrade equities to neutral, and trim our exposure to cyclical stocks.

Our business cycle indicators suggest the global economy is recovering well from the pandemic, but growth momentum has slowed slightly. That’s particularly true in China, where weaker-than-expected first quarter data has prompted us to trim our 2021 GDP growth forecast there to 10.0 per cent from 10.5 per cent. This slowdown is partly due to a cooling in credit growth. China’s credit impulse, our own measure of credit flowing through the economy,  has dropped off sharply since October is now broadly in-line with its long-term average of 6.5 per cent of GDP.(1) This is in keeping with the view that China will stick to its promise of maintaining continuity and stability in economic policies.

In the euro zone, the recovery is not self-sustaining yet and is fully conditional on successful control of the pandemic, the vaccination campaign and on the persistence of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. Economic activity in the US, meanwhile, continues to beat expectations – for now. We expect growth to peak in the current quarter, before slowing into the year-end as the fiscal boost starts to fade. Reinforcing our view, a New York Fed survey shows US households plan to spend just 25 per cent of the their stimulus cheques; 34 per cent of the cash will be used to pay down debt and the balance saved.

Pictet AM

 

Our liquidity indicators show that private credit conditions – credit flowing to household and corporations – have normalised globally. Overall liquidity, however, remains marginally supportive for riskier assets thanks to continued central bank stimulus. However, this support is likely to ease over the coming months. We think that the US Federal Reserve may move faster than expected on tapering QE; it could flag the shift in policy as soon as its June rate-setting meeting.

That, in turn, adds to the case for dialling down exposure to equities – particularly in light of extremely stretched valuations. The total return ratio of US equities versus bonds is now at a historic high, and a staggering 47 per cent above its long-term trend (see Fig. 2). The gap between stocks’ earnings yields and government bond yields, meanwhile, is at its lowest since the 2008 financial crisis.

Pictet AM

 

 

Globally, stocks’ earnings multiples should come under further pressure in the coming months as monetary stimulus fades. Any further upside for equities will thus have to come from corporate earnings growth. This could indeed continue to surprise on the upside for a while longer, but with investor positioning in – and sentiment towards – stocks already at very bullish levels, any positive market reaction to news of stronger profits is likely to be muted, while weaker-than-expected results could be severely punished.

Technical indicators suggest we are about to enter a three-month long period of negative seasonality for equities (the period running from May to July tends to be associated with weak stock market performance). While investment flows into equities remain strong, the momentum is slowing even if our indicators do not yet suggest stocks are ‘overbought’. For bonds, the overall technical signal remains negative.

 

 

Opinion written by Luca PaoliniPictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist

Discover Pictet Asset Management’s macro and asset allocation views.

 

 

Notes:

(1) China’s credit impulse is a broad measure of credit and liquidity to the real economy, which we calculate as year-on-year change in total social financing quarterly flow (ex-equity).

 

Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented herein.

Important notes

This material is for distribution to professional investors only. However it is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning.  Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future.  Past performance is not a guide to future performance.  The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed.  You may not get back the amount originally invested. 

This document has been issued in Switzerland by Pictet Asset Management SA and in the rest of the world by Pictet Asset Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and may not be reproduced or distributed, either in part or in full, without their prior authorisation.

For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.

Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).

In Canada Pictet AM Inc is registered as Portfolio Managerr authorized to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc. is registered as an SEC Investment Adviser and its activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.

 

 

AUM’s Growth for the Afores Will Fuel Local and Global PE Investments

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Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Dezalb . Foto:

In 12 years, the Mexican institutional investor has increased its investments in private equity through public vehicles registered on the local stock market (CKDs and CERPIs). Today these investments reflect a market value of 16.186 billion dollars of which 13.544 billion dollars come from the Afores (84% of the total), with the remaining 16% coming from other institutional investors such as insurance companies and such.

The total represents 1.4% of Mexican GDP and this figure doubles if one considers committed capital, which amounts to 32.824 billion dollars. This figure highlights the importance that the CKDs and CERPIs are gradually acquiring, as well as their great potential.

According to Santander’s area of analysis in the document: How Should Mexico’s Pension Reform Benefit Its Financial System? prepared by Alan Alanís, Claudia Benavente, Héctor Maya and Jorge Henderson (February 2021), it is estimated that Afores’ AUM could more than double from 237 billion dollars at the end of 2020 to 537 billion dollars by 2027, via employee contributions, investment returns, and benefits from the pension reform. This growth means that assets under management will go from 20% of Mexican GDP in 2020 to 32% in 2027.

The same document comments that in the last decade, assets under management increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, with 7% originating from returns and 6% from employee contributions.

Additionally, if the assets under management double in six-year periods, the potential investments in bonds, equities and private equity, among others, will also experience a boom.

Of the 12 years that institutional investors have been investing in private equity, in the first 6 years (2009-2015) investments were focused on local investments (CKDs) reaching a market value of 7.835 billion dollars. By 2021, this has almost doubled reaching 12.944 billion dollars (+ 65%).

In 2018, the year in which the Afores began investing globally, the market value of available CERPIs was of 1.827 billion. By March 2021, it had already reached a market value of 3.243 billion dollars (+ 78%), which represents 1.4% of the assets under management of the Afores while the investments in local private equity (CKDs) is 4.3% to reach a combined total of 5.7%.

If this 5.7% of total assets under management is simply maintained, does not grow at all, if it were applied to the 537 billion dollars projected in total AUM by Santander for 2027 it would represent 30.6 billion dollars.

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3In the past 12 years that the CKDs have been in place there have been 121 funds, while in the three years since the creation of CERPIs there are already 51. The explosive growth in the issuance of CERPIs with respect to the CKDs is due to the fact that they have primarily focused on fund of funds (43) while the others have been more sectorial focused as can be seen in the table.

This fund of funds CERPIs’ trend has led to their creation according to the risk profile of the investor or by the age of the workers affiliated (years of retirement of the worker to get their pension and / or money saved), or “Target Date Funds”.  Blackrock, for example, issued 7 series of its CERPI in 2019, while Lock Capital and Spruceview México released 7 and 8 series respectively in 2020. These three issuers alone represent 22 of the 51 CERPIs.

With this projected dynamism, investments in local and global private capital through CKDs and CERPIs will continue to grow.

Column by Arturo Hanono

Janus Henderson Prepares its Global Bond Team for the Departure of Nick Maroutsos

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Nick Janus
Foto cedidaNick Maroutsos, actual responsable de bonos globales y cogestor de las estrategias de retorno absoluto y renta fija multisectorial global de Janus Henderson. . Janus Henderson prepara a su equipo de bonos globales ante la salida de Nick Maroutsos

Janus Henderson has announced succession plans for its Global Bond team due to the departure of Nick MaroutsosHead of Global Bonds and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Absolute Return Income and Global Multi-Sector Fixed Income related strategies. In a press release, the asset manager has revealed that he will be leaving the firm next October “to take a career break”.

As part of its succession planning, during the next six months, Maroutsos will work closely with the global bonds team “to ensure a smooth transition and handover of responsibilities“.

Effective October 1, 2021, the team will be left under the leadership of Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income. The firm has highlighted that the following portfolio managers will continue to work in their current roles and will maintain the investment processes that have been “so impactful” for their clients to date. In this sense, Jason England and Daniel Siluk will remain co-portfolio managers on the Janus Henderson Absolute Return Income strategy and related funds. Also Andrew Mulliner, currently Head of Global Aggregate, will continue to serve in this role and oversee the multi-sector global bond portfolio strategies.

“While my decision to take a career break is bittersweet, I have the utmost confidence in the team and their investment process. Having worked closely with the team for many years, I have no doubt their talent and unwavering dedication to serving our clients will position them to generate solid returns. I thank the team and senior management for their trust over the past 15 years and will miss their professionalism and friendship”, Maroutsos said.

Meanwhile, Cielinski commented that their client commitment “has always been and will continue to be to seek to deliver dependable investment outcomes” to support their clients in achieving their long-term financial goals: “As a firm, we take a collaborative team-based approach focused on growing talent from within the teams, which allows for robust succession planning and a seamless transition for clients when we have personnel changes”.

He also thanked Maroutsos for his contribution to Janus Henderson, his “unwavering commitment” to clients, and his involvement “in developing the next generation of investors”. “Our dedicated Absolute Return Income team consists of thirteen people, of which Nick is one, split across the US and Australia. Given the lengthy transition period, and the breadth and depth of the experienced team, we are confident that this will be a smooth transition for our clients. Our global bonds effort has been and remains a strategic priority for the firm, and we will continue to invest in our team”, he concluded.

Janus Henderson’s Global Bonds team is built on collaboration across multiple geographies and anticipates no disruption to its cohesive global approach. Further it ensures global coverage across all major markets allowing for broader, more open collaboration, and increased idea exchange.