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Pictet Asset Management: An Unfavourable Mix of Slower Growth and Rising Inflation

The global economy is expanding at a solid pace. Developed countries are responsible for much of that growth thanks to the rapid vaccine rollout and the lifting of lockdown measures.

But economic momentum is beginning to ease as central banks prepare themselves to scale back monetary stimulus in response to rising price pressures.

A less favourable mix of growth and inflation, tighter liquidity conditions and high valuations for riskier asset classes lead us to maintain our neutral stance on equities.

Within equities, we are underweight economically-sensitive sectors – including consumer discretionary stocks – while in fixed income we are underweight riskier bonds such as US high yield debt.

At the same time, we continue to hold overweight positions in defensive assets such as US Treasuries and Chinese local currency bonds.

Our business cycle analysis shows price pressures are becoming more visible in the US.

The country’s consumer price index excluding food and energy is increasing at a 3-month annualised pace of 8.2 per cent, the highest since 1982.

Core PCE, the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, also rose 3.4 per cent to hit its highest level in nearly 30 years.

However, we believe the bout of inflationary pressure is transitory, owing to supply distortions and a surge in demand for items that were most affected by the pandemic, such as used cars.

Stripping out the impact from these Covid-sensitive items and the base effect, our analysis shows inflation is still stable at around 1.6 per cent (1).

The Fed now appears set to hike interest rates as early as end-2022 after it unexpectedly upgraded this year’s growth and inflation projections in June.

Higher interest rates could come even sooner if wage inflation picks up from the current 3 per cent year-on-year pace – which will in turn pressure corporate profit margins.

In Europe, economic conditions are improving rapidly as the bloc’s vaccination programme and business re-openings gather pace.

Further improving the region’s prospects, euro zone countries will soon begin receiving funds from the EUR750 billion recovery fund, which is expected to boost growth by at least 0.2 percentage points both this year and next.

Economic momentum in emerging countries is levelling off as Chinese growth cools after a strong rebound. We think domestic demand will replace exports as the main contributor to economic growth, which will in turn boost retail sales and fixed asset investments.

Our liquidity indicators support our neutral stance on risky asset classes.

Liquidity conditions in the US and euro zone are the loosest in the world, thanks to continued monetary stimulus from central banks.

In contrast, China’s liquidity conditions are now tighter than before the pandemic as Beijing resumes its crack down on debt after a 2020 boom in lending among small and medium enterprises.

However, a further slowdown in the world’s second largest economy may prompt the People’s Bank of China to switch to easier monetary policy later this year. This will see the central bank intervene in the foreign exchange market to weaken the renminbi currency.

Our valuation models suggest equity valuations are at their most expensive levels since 2008. Tighter liquidity conditions and a further increase in real yields are likely to pressure global price-earnings multiples, which we expect to decline by up to 20 per cent in the next 12 months.

Our model suggests that corporate profits should grow globally around 35 per cent year-on-year this year. We think consensus earnings growth forecasts for the next two years — at around 10 per cent — are too optimistic as that would take EPS clearly above the pre-Covid trend, which is unlikely given that profit margins are already stretched.

Our technical indicators remain moderately positive for equities. Within fixed income, Chinese government debt – in which we are overweight – is the only asset class for which technical signals are positive.

Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist.

Discover Pictet Asset Management’s macro and asset allocation views.

Notes:

(1) Covid-sensitive items: lodging away from home, used cars, car rentals, airline fare, televisions, toys, personal computers.

Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented herein.

Important notes

This material is for distribution to professional investors only. However it is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.

This document has been issued in Switzerland by Pictet Asset Management SA and in the rest of the world by Pictet Asset Management Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, and may not be reproduced or distributed, either in part or in full, without their prior authorisation.

For US investors, Shares sold in the United States or to US Persons will only be sold in private placements to accredited investors pursuant to exemptions from SEC registration under the Section 4(2) and Regulation D private placement exemptions under the 1933 Act and qualified clients as defined under the 1940 Act. The Shares of the Pictet funds have not been registered under the 1933 Act and may not, except in transactions which do not violate United States securities laws, be directly or indirectly offered or sold in the United States or to any US Person. The Management Fund Companies of the Pictet Group will not be registered under the 1940 Act.

Pictet Asset Management Inc. (Pictet AM Inc) is responsible for effecting solicitation in North America to promote the portfolio management services of Pictet Asset Management Limited (Pictet AM Ltd) and Pictet Asset Management SA (Pictet AM SA).

In Canada Pictet AM Inc is registered as Portfolio Managerr authorized to conduct marketing activities on behalf of Pictet AM Ltd and Pictet AM SA. In the USA, Pictet AM Inc. is registered as an SEC Investment Adviser and its activities are conducted in full compliance with the SEC rules applicable to the marketing of affiliate entities as prescribed in the Adviser Act of 1940 ref. 17CFR275.206(4)-3.

Vontobel Completes de Purchase of TwentyFour AM by Acquiring the Remaining 40%

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staub-zeno — Foto cedidaZeno Staub, CEO de Vontobel. Vontobel AM completa la compra de TwentyFour AM tras adquirir el 40% restante de la boutique

Vontobel Asset Management has completed the purchase of TwentyFour Asset Management after securing the remaining 40% of its capital. After acquiring a 60% stake in the fixed income boutique in 2015, Vontobel had intended to buy the remaining 40% in two tranches in 2021 and 2023. However, it has beaten its own deadlines and has already accomplished the operation.

In a press release, Vontobel AM has explained that it has taken “targeted steps” in recent years to develop a diversified range of products for its clients, and one of the main pillars was the acquisition of a majority stake in TwentyFour Asset Management LLP (TwentyFour), now a 24.2 billion swiss francs specialist fixed income boutique. Both firms have now agreed that Vontobel will have acquired the remaining 40% in one tranche as of 30 June 2021.

TwentyFour and Vontobel are thus underscoring the very positive development of the partnership. “By bringing the transaction forward it gives clients and investors clarity and ensures focus remains on delivering outstanding performance and client service for the long term”, the statement said.

After the transaction, TwentyFour will remain operationally independent and will continue to service its clients from offices in London and New York, as well as via Vontobel’s international network. Since the acquisition of the majority stake of 60% in 2015, all TwentyFour Partners have continued to play an active role in the company’s day-to-day operations. Besides, the asset manager has highlighted that the partners and portfolio management teams “remain committed to serving the interests of clients and ensuring the investment boutique’s ongoing success, hence will continue to serve as a driver of growth for Vontobel”.

Both parties have agreed not to disclose the purchase price but have revealed that the acquisition of this stake will be fully financed out of Vontobel’s own funds. Part of the transaction will be paid in the form of Vontobel shares, further underscoring the commitment of TwentyFour’s Partners.

“From the very beginning, we have been impressed by TwentyFour’s expertise and entrepreneurial culture, as well as its continuous growth. The acquisition of the remaining 40% stake is therefore the logical next step in our diversification and growth strategy. I look forward to our ongoing collaboration with our colleagues at TwentyFour, who are all supportive of this acquisition,” stated Zeno Staub, CEO of Vontobel.

Mark Holman, CEO of TwentyFour, claimed that after six years of working very closely together with Vontobel as a majority shareholder, the decision to move to full ownership was not a difficult one. “As a direct consequence of our partnership we have been able to spread our investment expertise to a far greater audience as we have moved from being a domestic player to genuinely global. Importantly though we have preserved the independence and entrepreneurial spirit of being a boutique, which I know is something that both our clients and staff really value and was at the core of our decision making for this transaction”, he added.

TwentyFour was founded in 2008 as a partnership, and has since grown to employ around 75 staff, responsible for providing a broad range of fixed income products to institutional investors. It is known for its disciplined investment philosophy and its proven investment process that generates sustained attractive risk-adjusted returns. The firm’s funds have been rated by Morningstar, which has assigned 99% of them (asset weighted) a four- or five-star rating. Furthermore, the quality of its products has been recognized by a variety of industry awards.

William Davies Will Become Global CIO of Columbia Threadneedle

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foto ligera — Foto cedidaWilliam Davies, CIO para EMEA y responsable global de renta variable, y próximo CIO global en enero de 2022.. William Davies asumirá el papel de CIO global de Columbia Threadneedle

Columbia Threadneedle Investments has put its Global Chief Investment Officer transition plan into action. The asset manager has announced the retirement of Colin Moore, who currently holds this position, after nearly 20 years at the firm. He will be replaced by William Davies, currently EMEA CIO and Global Head of Equities, in January 2022.

The firm has highlighted the “key role” that Moore has played in shaping its global investment capability, including its “well-established and highly successful investment process based on collaboration across asset classes, research intensity and independent oversight to foster continuous improvement.” Under his leadership, Columbia Threadneedle has generated consistently strong long-term investment performance for individual and institutional clients, and today has 103 four- and five-star Morningstar-rated funds globally.

“I would like to recognise and thank Colin for his numerous contributions, including establishing our global investment capability that has delivered an enviable track record of consistently strong investment performance for our clients. We have built an outstanding and experienced team of more than 450 investment professionals across our global footprint, and as we look forward, William is well positioned to assume the Global CIO role. He is both an exceptional investor and respected people leader with a deep understanding of our firm having joined us in 1993. I look forward to working with William and Colin to ensure a smooth transition”, said Ted Truscott, Chief Executive Officer of the firm.

Meanwhile, Moore claimed to be grateful for the opportunity he’s had to establish a broad and deep investment capability for their clients. “We have spent considerable time ensuring a thoughtful succession, and I am extremely pleased that William will assume the Global CIO role next year. It has been a privilege to lead our team of dedicated, experienced investors who will continue to focus on delivering consistent, competitive investment performance for our clients under William’s leadership”, he added.

Lastly, Davies commented that his focus is unchanged: “I will continue to work with my colleagues to consistently deliver the investment performance our clients expect. I am honoured to lead our talented global investment organisation and look forward to continuing our partnership with colleagues across the business to help our individual and institutional clients achieve their investment goals.”

Financial Flows, the Fountain of Youth for an Ailing Water Infrastructure

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reservoir-50681_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Flujos financieros: la fuente de la juventud para unas infraestructuras hidráulicas enfermas

Adequate water supply is essential for the human life as well for economies and businesses to thrive. Yet adequate water supply has become more of a luxury than a basic right due to a growing global water crisis where water supply is limited, quality issues prevail, and infrastructure is either old and breaking down or even non-existent in the case of the developing world.

Allianz Global Investors believes that the implications of inadequate water infrastructure and lack of access to fresh, high quality water supply has far reaching consequences impacting nearly every individual, economy, and business around the world. “Investments in new and upgraded water infrastructure are therefore necessary for high quality water supply access and effective wastewater treatment today and into the future. Such investments can support the development of resilient infrastructure which can more effectively meet both todays and future challenges tied to growing populations, urbanization, climate change and even cyber-attacks”, says the asset manager in a recent analysis.

Given the necessity for such investments, the US Senate recently approved the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021, which authorizes USD 35 billion of water related investments to be allocated to improving wastewater, stormwater, drinking water and water recycling across the nation. It is one the few areas with bipartisan support in the US which highlights the urgent need for water investments.

Will funding run dry?

The makeover of US water infrastructure which still has to be passed by the House is just one part of the larger USD 2 trillion infrastructure bill. As unanimous as the consensus is about the urgency to make the world’s biggest economy’s drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems future-proof, is the remaining investment deficit as the USD 35 billion will only slightly move the needle. In 2019 alone, the accumulative investment gap on water infrastructure was USD 81 billion.¹Other calculations suggest annual needs of more than USD 100 billion each year for the next 20 years.²

Allianz GI points out that the consequences of funding shortfalls for water-reliant businesses and households are “enormous” as breakdowns and quality incidents will continue to plague local communities and disrupt future economic growth. “So, filling this financial void is vital not only to allow for the current US water infrastructure to function properly but also to make it resilient for future requirements“, they add.

The state of US water infrastructure

The United States’ public drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems resemble an outdated patchwork rug formed by pipes and lines from different centuries and with different levels of functionality. Because many pipes and pumps are nearly a one hundred years old and are operating at higher capacity than initially designed for, they are past the end of their usable life, leaking large amounts of water and oftentimes failing to meet today’s needs.

The asset manager highlights that municipalities are facing the question whether to upgrade, replace, or fortify these systems and how to make the water infrastructure future-proof to tackle severe weather events brought on by climate change. Additionally, they face the challenge to connect all US households to a regulated and safe water system. Currently, around a fifth of all households rely on septic tanks over public wastewater systems, and over two million lack properly connected drinking water and sanitation systems.³Around a quarter of Americans are very concerned about the quality of their community’s drinking water.⁴

The leaking lifeline

A modern and robust water infrastructure is vital to the country’s economic development as it secures not only the supply of water but also prevents the spread of illness and diseases, fosters economic growth, and ensures a higher living standard.

“The more water infrastructure leaks treated water, the more capital is lost negatively thus impacting both local residents and the local economy. It also affects the competitiveness of a city as a business located in an area with adequate water supply and infrastructure is more competitive and fosters long term growth”, they comment. According to ASCE’s 2021 Infrastructure Report Card⁵ there is a daily loss of approximately 6 billion gallons (approx. 22.7 million m³) of treated water due to water main breaks occurring at one-minute intervals, amounting to a yearly loss of 2.1 trillion gallons (approx. 7.9 trillion m³).

Within the next four years, almost three-quarters of all dams will be over 50 years old and gradually deteriorating. If not upgraded and rehabilitated, they will be vulnerably exposed to possible disaster scenarios leading to a loss of human lives and to a considerable damage of properties and existing infrastructure.
Following the estimations of the Association of State Dam Safety Officials⁶ there are more than 2,300 state regulated high-hazard-potential dams in poor or unsatisfactory condition and in need of remediation.
Urbanization combined with the age profile of wastewater treatment plans is increasingly resulting in system overloads and failures.
15% of wastewater treatment plants have reached/exceeded their designed capacity.

These are just a few examples illustrating the poor conditions of US water infrastructure and the dire need for infrastructure capital expenditure. The situation has far-reaching consequences and urgent action is needed to upgrade and modernize the world’s biggest economy’s drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater systems.

The investment gaps

For Allianz GI, while the infrastructure investment proposals currently making their way through the US Congress would be a step in the right direction, the US water infrastructure gap is still immense. Estimates indicate that over USD 2 trillion in water investments are needed over the next 20 years to close the funding gap and develop adequate water infrastructure across the nation. For example, the amount needed to replace the remaining lead pipes in the US is already over the projected USD 35 billion in the current proposal as estimates are as high as USD 45 billion to complete the replacements.

According to estimates of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) there are between 6.5 million and 10 million lead service lines in the US. On average, it costs about USD 4,700 to replace one single lead service line. Even if the EPA’s estimate is higher than needed in certain cases, the projected funds would quickly run dry.

Several angles for active investments

“Undoubtedly, the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act of 2021 reflects a decisive first step to closing the existing funding gap. On the other hand, while it is ambitious it’s still short of meeting the most pressing water challenges as it cannot even address the remaining lead pipes which threaten the safety of US citizens. There are still substantial funding gaps that require capital expenditure to be addressed. That said, if this bill is passed later this summer, it will be a positive for water space and for water investments given the water equipment and projects that will be needed to make the upgrades”, explains the firm.

When considering the several aspects water infrastructure covers, we can clearly identify where active investments are needed and how they could pay off.

Replacement of lead pipes and service lines: The removal of all lead service lines in the United States not only ensures clean drinking water for every American but it is also contributing to improved public health by preventing severe chronic diseases like lead poisoning, ultimately easing the financial burden on health systems. Additionally, it is likely to result in an attractive investment opportunity in companies that provide piping systems. Investor-owned networks can also play a role here as they can make improvements independent of infrastructure stimulus, many times at lower costs than municipalities.
Leaking lines: To maintain and stop the loss of precious treated water companies have developed smart technologies and tools to detect leaks in water pipes.
Emerging contaminants and Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAs)⁷: Specialised companies that offer advanced water treatment technologies can detect and remove emerging contaminants from drinking water and help protect citizens from developing cancer after consuming poor water quality for years at a time.
Aging wastewater treatment plants: The replacement of wastewater treatment plants reaching the end of their lifespan opens up interesting investment opportunities for companies who are experts in wastewater management and designing wastewater treatment plants.

Lookout

While the USA and a big part of the world is focussing on how the US Drinking Water and Wastewater Infrastructure Act will contribute to revitalizing the aging US water infrastructure, positively impacting economic and job growth over the medium to long-term, there are still many under-researched and prominent risks. Just take cyber security, a topic gaining increasing importance for the protection of water infrastructure against cyber criminals. The cyber-attack on the water supply in Oldsmar, Florida and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s call to “install independent cyber-physical safety systems”⁸ is just one piece of evidence of the high relevance cyber security has for a future-proof water supply.

Investment implications

Global Water strategies help to address the very real water-infrastructure and water-quality related challenges in the US and the rest of the world by investing in pure play water companies delivering solutions to the most pressing challenges. “Investments may not only generate financial alpha given structural support of the theme, but also environmental and social alpha given the solutions-oriented approach. Such investments can help to upgrade and build resilient water infrastructure that is well prepared to face the challenges tied to climate change and ongoing population growth and urbanization”, says Allianz GI.

This approach allows investors the ability to participate in a compelling long-term growth opportunity and contribute to the solutions of modern water infrastructure, a lifeline to society and the economy.

1 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/wastewater/

² http://www.uswateralliance.org/sites/uswateralliance.org/files/publications/VOW%20Economic%20Paper_0.pdf

3 https://www.asce.org/uploadedFiles/Issues_and_Advocacy/Infrastructure/Content_Pieces/the-economic-benefits-of-investing-in-water-infrastructurereport.

pdf

4 http://uswateralliance.org/sites/uswateralliance.org/files/2021%20Value%20of%20Water%20Survey%20Analysis%20Slides.pdf

5 https://infrastructurereportcard.org/

6 https://damsafety.org/media/statistics

7 https://www.epa.gov/pfas/basic-information-pfas

8 https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/alerts/aa21-042a

JP Morgan AM Acquires Campbell Global, a Firm Focused in Forest Management and Timberland Investing

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forest-5597499_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. JP Morgan AM compra Campbell Global, firma especializada en gestión e inversión en el sector forestal

In an effort to directly impact the transition to a low-carbon economy and provide ESG-minded investment opportunities related to climate, conservation and biodiversity, JP Morgan Asset Management has acquired forest management and timberland investing company Campbell Global, LLC.

Although the terms of the deal with Campbell Global’s parent company, BrightSphere Investment Group, were not disclosed, the asset manager has stated in a press release that the acquisition does not impact current investment strategies for Campbell Global clients. It also revealed that the transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.

Campbell Global is a recognized leader in global timberland investment and natural resource management. Based in Portland, Oregon, the firm has over three decades of experience, 5.3 billion dollars in assets under management and manages over 1.7 million acres worldwide with over 150 employees. JP Morgan AM has indicated that all employees will be retained and Campbell Global will remain headquartered in Portland.

The deal will make the asset manager “a significant benefactor for thriving forests around the world”, including in 15 U.S. states, New Zealand, Australia and Chile. Carbon sequestration in forests worldwide will play an important role in carbon markets, and the firm expects to become an active participant in carbon offset markets as they develop. Besides direct access to Forestry sector, the transaction will provide alignment UN Sustainable Development Goals and Principles of Responsible Investing.

“This acquisition expands our alternatives offering and demonstrates our desire to integrate sustainability into our business in a way that is meaningful. Investing in timberland, on behalf of institutional and high net wealth individuals, will allow us to apply our expertise in managing real assets to forests, which are a natural solution to many of the world’s climate, biodiversity and social challenges”, said George Gatch, CEO of JP Morgan AM

John Gilleland, CEO of Campbell Global, commented that they have always held that “there should be no tradeoff” between investing wisely and investing responsibly. “We made our first institutional investment in timberland 35 years ago, have since planted over 536 million trees, and emerged as a leader in sustainable forestry. We look forward to continuing these efforts with JP Morgan. Importantly, this transaction further positions Campbell Global to serve our existing world-class clients at the highest standard“, he added.

“Acquiring Campbell Global provides us with an opportunity to strengthen and diversify our ESG focus, including building a robust carbon sequestration platform,” said Anton Pil, Global Head of J.P. Morgan Global Alternatives. “Timber investing further enhances our asset class offerings in our alternatives business, ultimately passing along the unique benefits of forest management to our clients. Our knowledge of real estate and transport markets, in particular, is expected to provide opportunities to optimize the usage of timber and wood products more vertically.”

The investment offering will sit within JP Morgan’s Global Alternatives franchise, with 168 billion dollars in AUM, and will tap into the continued growth of private markets. JP Morgan is an expert in investing in real assets, with leadership positions in real estate, infrastructure, and transport and as well as private equity, private debt and hedge funds. In their opinion, Campbell Global adds to this portfolio, filling an asset class gap in an attractive market while also supporting sustainability goals.

Jaime Cuadra Joins Better Way LLC as Partner, Managing Director and Founding Member

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Captura de Pantalla 2021-06-24 a la(s) 11 — Foto cedidaJaime Cuadra Jr.. ,,

Jaime Cuadra Jr. has joined as partner, managing director and founding member at Better Way LLC, a private investment firm where he will lead the global growth efforts focusing on capital raising, institutional partnerships, joint ventures, and investor relations.

Cuadra told Funds Society that he will now join forces with Alex Gregory, who founded the firm, built its infrastructure and brought in its initial investors.

Better Way LLC is an investment manager that offers a unique access program to invest in top overlooked Private Equity and Debt funds with a focus on mitigating risk and avoiding conflicts of interest for investors. Leveraging the team’s top performing decade long track record and deep relationships, target investors are investment advisors, family offices and institutional investors.

Jaime Cuadra has more than 15 years of experience in global asset management, private banking, and corporate strategy. Recently he was Global Director of Institutional clients at Compass Group in New York, an investment firm with over 41 billion dollars in assets where he led the unit that raised capital and advised global investors with Latin-American investments.

Throughout his career, Better Way’s new partner has held multiple leadership positions and enabled businesses in America, Europe and Asia through partnerships. He is an Industrial and Systems Engineer and also holds a Bachelors in Finance.

In his view, the rise and relevance of private investments in client portfolios (either institutional or retail) is “greater than ever” and he expects that this trend will continue in the future: “Allocation to Private Equity or Private Debt is still low relative to institutional portfolios, and there is a lot of room for this to evolve”.

“That being said, there are a lot of firms, distributors and banks, offering PE funds from top brands; yet in the competitive landscape our clients have told us they don’t hear a focus on risk or thorough due diligence when deals are presented. In our view, investing periodically in a carefully curated, small number of quality deals makes a big difference in performance”, Cuadra added.

He also pointed out that, given the reputation and the philosophy of Alex Gregory as a professional investor is “quite outstanding, unique and special”, it was “a no brainer” to work alongside him and bring this investment approach to investors around the world. “Alex’s track record is quite impressive over the decades and I hope we can continue evangelizing that paying attention to risk, and asking the tough questions is very important when allocating to Private Equity“, he concluded.

Aiming for Zero: Europe Raises its Clean Energy Game

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Shifting into a higher gear. This is precisely what the European Union has just done as it steers towards a more sustainable economy. Its new climate blueprint – which EU lawmakers and national governments have agreed in principle to make legally binding – proposes cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55 per cent compared with 1990 levels by the end of the decade.

That is significantly more ambitious than the EU’s previous target of 40 per cent, and means the region could become climate neutral by 2050.

It’s not difficult to see why the EU should want to pursue a green recovery with such determination.

Executed well, the plan, to be adopted in May 2021 and apply from 2022, offers the tantalising prospect of restoring both the environment and the economy back to full health.

The funds being set aside certainly point in that direction. The package will translate into approximately EUR7 trillion of new green investments by 2050. Crucial for the region’s economic prospects, a large proportion of that money will be channelled to the environmental industry (see Fig. 1) – a fast-growing sector that is making an ever larger contribution to GDP.

The industry’s gross value add (GVA) – a measure of its contribution to national output – rose to EUR286 billion in 2015, up 63 per cent from 2003. Within the sector are some especially vibrant industries such as resource management, which includes renewable energy and energy efficiency and has grown 150 per cent over that time (1).

More broadly, Europe’s environmental goods and services industry can now claim to rival that of the US.

It already employs 4 million full-time equivalent workers, up 38 per cent from 2003, and has contributed more than 2 per cent to the region’s GDP in 2015 (1).

EVs: the green light

Under the European Commission’s new set of criteria for green investments, producers of rechargeable batteries, energy efficiency equipment, non-polluting cars, wind and solar power plants will be able to win a formal green label. That could prove transformative for Europe’s transport, energy and real estate sectors.

Take autos, if European governments are to achieve their growth and pollution targets, electric vehicles (EV) will have to evolve into a strategic industry.

Here, the approach is one of carrot and stick.

France has a EUR8 billion programme to boost its EV industry with a goal of producing more than 1 million electric and hybrid cars every year over the next five years. The plan also includes a financial incentive that would reduce the cost of buying an EV by up to 40 per cent.

Germany also stepped up its support for zero-emission transport, doubling subsidies to as high as EUR9 billion, following a prior increase in November 2019 (2).

These incentives have already had a clear impact on EV take-up. German EV sales, for example, rose to account for 13 per cent of total car sales in August 2020, compared with just 2.5 per cent in the same month in 2019.

Regulators are also playing their part. Europe, the second biggest EV market after China, now has tough new emissions standards. Every car manufacturer must cap emissions for its entire fleet to 95g of CO2/km on average by end-2020 – some 20 per cent below the average emission level in 2018. This cap will drop to 81g by 2025 and to 59g by 2030.

Those who fail to meet the standards will pay a heavy price: the fine is EUR95 for every g/km of excess emissions per vehicle. Car manufacturers that fail to improve their CO2 emissions compared with 2019 levels face possible fines of several billions of euros every year.

All of this will help further boost e-mobility’s growth (see Fig. 2).

Pictet AM

Build back better

Construction will also be at heart of the European recovery plan – not least because 70 per cent of all buildings in the region are over 20 years old.

The European Green Deal reserves some EUR370 billion – or EUR53 billion a year – for renovation to boost energy efficiency and decarbonise existing buildings. That would represent a big boost to the European renovation industry, which was worth EUR819 billion in 2019 (3).

Europe is also proposing to commit EUR100 billion in research and development (R&D) spending in digital and environmental sectors. The seven-year programme, launching in 2021, aims to boost productivity and growth and maintain competitiveness in sectors consistent with the Green Deal’s objectives. The Commission estimates each euro invested in R&D would have a leverage effect of EUR11.

When it comes to sustainability, Europe has just raised the bar. Its ambitious green spending commitments and stricter regulations not only give an environmental template for other countries to follow, they also offer the prospect of stronger economic growth and open up new investment opportunities.

Pictet AM’s Clean Energy strategy: investing in the energy transition

Europe’s 2050 climate target is set to disrupt and transform a number of industries, each representing rich and diverse investment opportunities which are underappreciated by the wider market.

E-mobility: Some 80 per cent of today’s transport energy needs to be converted to electricity to meet the emissions target. BNEF expects 57 per cent of all passenger vehicle sales will be electric globally by 2040, compared with only 3 per cent in 2019. This will likely boost investments into not only EV manufacturers but, more significantly, supporting technologies such as batteries and power semiconductors, as well as smarter grid networks and charging infrastructure.
Renewables: Under the European plan, the share of renewables in power generation must rise to 85 per cent by 2050 from today’s 20 per cent, with the bulk of that covered by wind and solar. The way we generate power is transforming as an increasing number of European power utilities ramp up their production of renewable energy with aggressive expansion plans. Underlining this trend, while total EU energy generation declined almost 10 per cent in July from the year before, renewable energy generation rose over 8 per cent.
Green buildings: All new European buildings must be “nearly net zero energy” starting 2021. We also expect a significant increase in demand for “retrofitting” existing buildings. This should support companies producing high-performance building materials and insulation, heat pumps and LED lighting as well as smart Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and building energy management systems and other energy efficiency technologies and equipment.

Written by Steve Freedman, Sustainability and Research Manager in the Thematic Equities team at Pictet Asset Management.

Discover more about Pictet Asset Management’s long expertise in thematic investing.

Notes:

(1) Based on 2010 prices. Source: European Environment Agency (EEA)
(2) https://insideevs.com/news/443518/germany-plugin-car-sales-august-2020/ and https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/04/germany-in-august-electric-vehicles-crushing-it-at-record-13-2-market-share
(3) Euroconstruct

Important notes

Global Wealth Creation Was Largely Immune to the Pandemic Shock in 2020

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monopoly-5136946_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Más ricos y más acaudalados: el crecimiento de la riqueza se mostró inmune al golpe de la pandemia mundial

Wealth creation in 2020 was largely immune to the challenges facing the world due to the actions taken by governments and central banks to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19. This is the main conclusion of the twelfth “Global Wealth Report” recently published by Credit Suisse Research Institute.

The analysis shows that total global wealth grew by 7.4% and wealth per adult rose by 6% to reach another record high of 79,952 dollars. Meanwhile, aggregate global wealth rose by 28.7 trillion dollars to reach 418.3 trillion at the end of the year. However, widespread depreciation of the US dollar accounted for 3.3 percentage points of the growth. If exchange rates had remained the same as in 2019, total wealth would have grown by 4.1% and wealth per adult by 2.7%.

The research institute points out that overall, the countries most affected by the pandemic “have not fared worse in terms of wealth creation”. In this sense, the pandemic had a profound short-term impact on global markets in the first quarter of 2020: the report estimates that 17.5 trillion dollars was lost from total global household wealth between January and March 2020, equivalent to a fall of 4.4%.

However, this was largely reversed by the end of June. “Surprisingly, in the second half of 2020 share prices continued on an upward path, reaching record levels by the end of the year. Housing markets also benefitted from the prevailing optimism as house prices rose at rates not seen for many years. The net result was that 28.7 trillion was added to global household wealth during the year”, highlights the analysis.

“The pandemic had an acute short term impact on global markets but this was largely reversed by the end of June 2020. As we noted last year, global wealth not only held steady in the face of such turmoil but in fact rapidly increased in the second half of the year. Indeed wealth creation in 2020 appears to have been completely detached from the economic woes resulting from COVID-19“, said Anthony Shorrocks, economist and report author.

The regional breakdown shows that total wealth rose by 12.4 trillion dollars in North America and by 9.2 trillion in Europe. These two regions accounted for the bulk of the wealth gains in 2020, with China adding another 4.2 trillion and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China and India) another 4.7 trillion.

Another key finding of the report is that India and Latin America both recorded losses in 2020. In this sense, total wealth fell in India by 594 billion dollars, or 4.4% in percentage terms. This loss was amplified by exchange rate depreciation: at fixed exchange rates, the loss would have been 2.1%. Latin America appears to have been the worst performing region, with total wealth dropping by 11.4% or 1.2 trillion.

Meanwhile, total debt also increased by 7.5% and the report points out that it would likely have increased much more if households had not been obliged to save more by the constraints on spending. Specifically, it rose markedly in China and Europe, but declined in Africa and in Latin America, even after allowance is made for exchange rate depreciation.

“Windfalls from unplanned savings and prevailing low interest rates saw a revival in housing markets during the second half of 2020. The net result was a better-than-average year for homeowners in most countries”, it adds.

Global wealth levels in 2020

Wealth impacts of the pandemic have differed among population subgroups due to two main factors: portfolio composition and income shocks. The wealth of those with a higher share of equities among their assets, e.g. late middle age individuals, men, and wealthier groups in general, tended to fare better. Homeowners in most markets have seen capital gains due to rising house prices.

“If asset price increases are set aside, then global household wealth may well have fallen. In the lower wealth bands where financial assets are less prevalent, wealth has tended to stand still, or, in many cases, regressed. Some of the underlying factors may self-correct over time. For example, interest rates will begin to rise again at some point, and this will dampen asset prices”, Shorrocks commented.

The report also shows that there have been large differences in income shocks during the pandemic. In many high income countries the loss of labor or business income was softened by emergency benefits and employment policies. In countries with an absence of income support, vulnerable groups like women, minorities and young people were particularly affected

Also, female workers initially suffered disproportionately from the pandemic, partly because of their high representation in businesses and industries badly affected by the pandemic, such as restaurants, hotels, personal service and retail. “Labor force participation declined over the course of 2020 for both men and women, but the size of the decline was similar, at least in most advanced economies”, it adds.

Wealth distribution and the outlook

Wealth differences between adults widened in 2020. The global number of millionaires expanded by 5.2 million to reach 56.1 million. As a result, an adult now needs more than 1 million dollars to belong to the global top 1%. A year ago, the requirement for a top 1% membership was 988,103 dollars. So, as Credit Suisse Research Institute highlights, 2020 marks the year when for the first time, more than one percent of all global adults are in nominal terms dollar millionaires.

Besides, the ultra high net worth (UHNW) group grew even faster, adding 24% more members, the highest rate of increase since 2003. Since 2000, people with wealth in the range of 10,000–100,000 dollars have seen the biggest rise in numbers, more than trebling in size from 507 million in 2000 to 1.7 billion in mid-2020. “This reflects the growing prosperity of emerging economies, especially China, and the expansion of the middle class in the developing world”, says the report.

Global wealth is projected to rise by 39% over the next five years, reaching 583 trillion dollars by 2025. Low and middle-income countries are responsible for 42% of the growth, although they account for just 33% of current wealth. Wealth per adult is projected to increase by 31%, passing the mark of 100,000 dollars. Unadjusted for inflation, the number of millionaires will also grow markedly over the next five years reaching 84 million, while the number of UHNWIs should reach 344,000.

Ricos a 2025

Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, Chief Investment Officer International Wealth Management and Global Head of Economics & Research at Credit Suisse, claimed that “there is no denying” actions taken by governments and central banks to organize massive income transfer programs to support the individuals and businesses most adversely affected by the pandemic, and by lowering interest rates, have successfully averted a full scale global crisis.

“Although successful, these interventions have come at a great cost. Public debt relative to GDP has risen throughout the world by 20 percentage points or more in many countries. Generous payments from the public sector to households have meant that disposable household income has been relatively stable and has even risen in some countries. Coupled with restricted consumption, household saving has surged inflating household financial assets and lowering debts. The lowering of interest rates by central banks has probably had the greatest impact. It is a major reason why share prices and house prices have flourished, and these translate directly into our valuations of household wealth”, she concluded.

Tony Esses and his Team Join Snowden Lane Partners with 800 Million Dollars in AUM

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Captura de Pantalla 2021-06-22 a la(s) 09 — . Pexels

Snowden Lane Partners has announced the launch of The Esses Group, a new wealth management team helmed by Tony Esses, who was Managing Director at Wells Fargo Advisors from 2014-2021. Overseeing more than 800 million dollars in client assets, they will be based in Snowden Lane’s Coral Gables office.

Esses, a top-ranked financial advisor with over 35 years of experience in the international wealth management business, specializes in working with individuals, business owners and families based in Argentina. He is joining Snowden Lane as a Senior Partner and Managing Director.

“Over the last three decades, Tony has established himself as a top-rated financial advisor and a true champion for his clients. He exemplifies everything we look for in a partner and colleague, and we have no doubt he and his new team will do great things for years to come”, said Greg Franks, President and COO of Snowden Lane Partner.

Meanwhile, Esses claimed to be “delighted” to be joining a firm “with such a client-first mindset and independent spirit”. In order to best serve clients, it “became clear” to him that he needed to operate within a firm that gave their advisors space and freedom without conflicts or pressure. “Snowden Lane’s built an environment that’s removed all obstacles to growth, and their fast rise within the RIA space is a reflection of the strong and unique culture they’ve established”, he commented.

Prior to Snowden Lane, he served as a Managing Director at Wells Fargo Advisors for seven years, and before that held senior roles at Barclays (2010-2014) and Republic National Bank of New York (later HSBC, 1985-2010). He’s been selected to the Financial Times Top 400 Advisors list several times and has been distinguished as a premier advisor at each of the institutions he’s worked for.

The firm has also revealed that several additional team recruits are expected to join soon.

Rob Mooney, Snowden Lane’s CEO, added that it’s been an exciting recruiting start so far this year and that they are “so pleased” with the pace and quality of individuals who’ve have joined them over the last few months. “We finished 2020 with great momentum and we’re heading into the second half of 2021 with wind in our sails. The strong response from the advisor community, particularly those who cater to international clients, has been nothing short of breathtaking and we’re looking forward to the future”, he concluded.

The firm has 116 total employees, 64 of whom are financial advisors, across 12 offices around the United States.

BlackRock Acquires Baringa Partners’ Climate Change Scenario Model

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Marcos colores — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. BlackRock adquiere el modelo de escenarios de cambio climático de Baringa Partners

BlackRock and Baringa Partners have announced their entry into a definitive agreement for BlackRock to acquire and integrate Baringa’s industry-leading Climate Change Scenario Model into its Aladdin Climate technology. In a press release, both firms pointed out that this new long-term partnership is “a significant milestone” for them, as they collaborate to set the standard for modelling the impacts of climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy on financial assets for investors, banks and other clients.

They will bring together their expertise to develop climate risk models underpinning Aladdin Climate, as well as innovating other climate analytics solutions. Through the partnership, Baringa will use the core Aladdin Climate capabilities as part of its growing global consulting work in advising financial services, governments, regulatory bodies, and clients across all sectors on climate risk and developing net zero strategies.

Both companies believe that, while the reallocation of capital to sustainable investment strategies continues -with over 2.3 trillion dollars of assets under management in sustainability funds globally as of the first quarter of 2021- understanding the potential impacts of climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy on their portfolios remains a complex challenge for investors. With the number of governments and companies making commitments to achieve net-zero continuing to grow alongside increased regulatory requirements for climate-related disclosures, companies and investors alike are seeking solutions to help assess climate risk.

“Investors and companies are increasingly recognising that climate risk presents investment risk. Through this partnership with Baringa, we are raising the industry bar for climate analytics and risk management tools, so clients can build and customise more sustainable portfolios. The integration of Baringa’s models and the ongoing collaboration between our firms will enhance Aladdin Climate’s capabilities, helping our clients understand transition risks in more sectors and regions than ever before”, commented Sudhir Nair, Global Head of the Aladdin Business at BlackRock.

Meanwhile, Colin Preston, Global Head of Climate Solutions at Baringa said that climate change is “the number one challenge and opportunity of our generation”. Having developed the leading Climate Change Scenario Model, they are “excited to partner with BlackRock” to accelerate the adoption of this solution by organisations across the globe. “The integration of Baringa’s Climate Change Scenario Model into BlackRock’s Aladdin platform will inform the reallocation of capital across the global economy, accelerating the transition to net zero”, he concluded.

Baringa developed its market-leading climate scenario modelling capabilities on 20 years of experience. Baringa’s solutions support net zero commitments, TCFD reporting, regulatory reporting, investment and capital allocation strategies, as well as developing climate risk management capabilities. As the leading solution in the financial services sector, Baringa’s Climate Change Scenario Model is informing clients with assets totalling more than 15 trillion dollars; supporting the management of climate risk and the reallocation of capital to achieve net zero.

As for BlackRock, it began developing Aladdin Climate to fill a void in climate risk analytics by creating technology to help clients better understand and mitigate the financial impacts associated with climate change on their portfolios. Aladdin Climate is offered through the Aladdin platform and is used by BlackRock’s Financial Markets Advisory (FMA) group to deliver sustainability advisory services to clients. It measures both the impacts of physical risks, like extreme weather events, and transition risks – such as policy changes, new technology, and energy supply – at the financial instrument and portfolio levels.