Corporate moves continue in the global asset management industry. The Goldman Sachs Group has announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the Dutch asset manager NN Investment Partners (NN IP) from NN Group N.V. for approximately 1.6 billion euros (1.87 billion dollars), consisting of a base purchase price of 1,515 million.
This amount doesn’t include a ticking fee and excess capital of 50 million euros to be distributed in the form of a dividend before completion, so the final figure could rise to €1.7 billion. The transaction is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2022, subject to regulatory and other approvals and conditions, reveal the statements released by both firms.
As part of the agreement, NN Group and Goldman Sachs Asset Management will enter into a ten-year strategic partnership under which the combined company will continue to provide asset management services to NN Group.
The combination of the complementary investment capabilities of NN IP and Goldman Sachs will create a full suite of asset management products that can be offered to clients through the distribution networks of both parties. At the same time, NN IP has highlighted that its “leading position” in responsible investing will strengthen Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s sustainable investment strategy, product offerings and client solutions.
A stronger European business
NN IP is a leading European asset manager based in The Hague, Netherlands, with approximately $355 billion in assets under supervision and $70 billion in assets under advice. It offers a broad range of equity and fixed income products, with a strong ESG integration across its business. Besides, it is a top-ranked ESG manager in Europe and 75% of its assets under supervision are ESG integrated. With a heritage dating back almost 175 years, NN IP employs more than 900 professionals in 15 countries and combines the use of data and technology with fundamental analysis in its investment processes.
NN IP’s employees will join Goldman Sachs Asset Management following the closing of the transaction and both firms expect that the Netherlands will become a significant location in GSAM’s European business. “We believe that their expertise will strengthen our fund management and distribution platform across retail and institutional channels in Europe and support us in delivering long-term value to clients”, said Goldman Sachs in its press release.
In their view, NN IP is highly complementary to their existing European footprint and will add new capabilities and accelerate growth in products such as European equity and investment grade credit, sustainable and impact equity, and green bonds.
Goldman Sachs has $2.3 trillion in assets under supervision globally, and this transaction will bring assets under supervision in Europe to over $600 billion, aligning with the firm’s strategic objectives to scale its European business and extend its global reach.
As a result of the agreement, Satish Bapat will step down from his role as a member of the Management Board of NN Group. He will continue to lead NN IP in his role as CEO.
A strategic partnership
Meanwhile, the combination with Goldman Sachs gives NN IP a broader platform to accelerate its growth and further improve the offering and service to its clients. It will also allow NN Group to continue its cooperation with NN IP and to benefit from the strengths and complementary product propositions of Goldman Sachs.
As part of the agreement, GSAM will enter into a long-term strategic partnership agreement with NN Group to manage an approximately $190 billion portfolio of assets, reflecting the strength of the business’ global insurance asset management capabilities and alternatives franchise.
The partnership will establish Goldman Sachs as the largest non-affiliated insurance asset manager globally, with over $550 billion in assets under supervision, and the acquisition will provide a foundation for further growth in the firm’s European fiduciary management business, building on the success of its platform in the United States and United Kingdom.
“This acquisition allows us to accelerate our growth strategy and broaden our asset management platform. NN IP offers a leading European client franchise and an extension of our strength in insurance asset management. Across their offerings they have been successful in integrating sustainability which mirrors our own level of ambition to put responsible investing and stewardship at the heart of our business. We look forward to partnering with the team at NN IP as we focus on delivering long-term value to our clients and our shareholders”, commented David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.
Meanwhile, David Knibbe, CEO of NN Group, pointed out that they have a “longstanding and successful” shared history with NN IP. “We value this strong and constructive relationship that we have and we look forward to further building on it in a new form. This transaction brings together two international asset managers, each with many decades of investment experience. We have found a strong and professional partner in Goldman Sachs, providing an environment in which our NN IP colleagues can continue to thrive, while the combined investment expertise and scale will enhance the service offering to their clients, including NN Group”, he added.
Foto cedidaPaul Camp, head de Global Treasury Management Group en Wells Fargo. Foto cedida
Wells Fargo has named Paul Camp head of its new Global Treasury Management unit. Most recently CEO of Treasury Services at BNY Mellon, he will join the company in November and will dually report to Perry Pelos, CEO of Wells Fargo Commercial Banking, and Jon Weiss, CEO of Corporate & Investment Banking.
This new role brings together Wells Fargo’s Treasury Management and Global Payment Solutions teams into one organization that provides global cash management and payments services. “By combining these businesses, Wells Fargo will be able to leverage its capabilities more effectively to help clients manage their funds and process payments worldwide”, says the company in a statement accessed by Funds Society.
The current head of Treasury Management & Payment Solutions, Danny Peltz, a 31-year veteran of Wells Fargo, and will retire on Dec. 15.
“Over Paul’s 21-year career, he has experience at industry-leading global financial institutions and in technology startup environments, focused on delivering the best solutions for clients. He has a deep background in treasury management and payment solutions, which are strategic growth opportunities for the company,” said Pelos.
Meanwhile, Weiss pointed out that Camp brings “valuable expertise” to this role where he will develop a strategy focused on growth and innovation, serving large, medium, and smaller businesses alike. “We are excited to have him join later this year to lead our efforts to enhance products and services that are foundational to our client relationships”, he added.
At BNY Mellon, Camp led an organization that offers global payments, trade services, cash management, and foreign exchange services in 36 countries. Before that, he served as the CFO, treasurer, and EVP of Financial Operations at Circle, a fintech focused on secure technology to use and store money.
He’s also held senior-level roles in transaction services and cash management at both JP Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank. Camp holds a B.A. in classical studies from Dartmouth College and an MBA from Harvard Business School. During his time at BNY Mellon, he was recognized for his work on diversity, equity, and inclusion issues and looks forward to continuing that work at Wells Fargo.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Los tres mitos más comunes sobre la inversión sostenible
The conversation around sustainable investing, or ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing has rapidly taken on increased importance. Over the past year, the pandemic has proven the value of incorporating sustainability into corporate practice – and that extends beyond just environmental factors to social and governance policies. By incorporating ESG factors into their corporate structure, companies have not only been able to cope during challenging times, but also now have a social license to continue operating in the future.
Just as the signing of the Paris Agreementi in 2015 to combat climate change was a turning point for global sustainable affairs, the global pandemic is reinforcing structural change. The world is moving towarda stakeholder economyii, where companies seek to serve the interests of consumers, employees, suppliers, and communities as a whole.
More and more people, both globally and locally, are joining the conversation about sustainable investment strategies, and more asset management firms believe it’s important for financial advisors to do the same. The first step is to help guide investors by addressing misconceptions about sustainable investments and ESG.
To do this, we spoke with Jordie Olivella, Head of Distribution and Commercial Strategy for BlackRock’s Offshore Wealth business, to debunk three of the most common myths he hears from clients when it comes to sustainable investing.
Myth 1: Sustainable investing means sacrificing returns
Even before COVID, studies showed that sustainable investing can pay off, but last years’ market volatility was a litmus test, further demonstrating the resilience of sustainable products. Over the course of 2020, companies with better ESG profiles provided resilience in portfolios and outperformed lower-rated peers.
“In the first quarter of the year 94% of a globally representative set of sustainable indices outperformed standard indices. Extend that performance to the whole of 2020, and 81% of that same set of indices outperformed,” points out Jordie Olivella.
Myth 2: There aren’t any standards
It is true that definitions of “what is sustainable” can vary depending upon which investor or investment manager you speak to. At a global level, standardization should take into account three stages, according to BlackRock: the way in which companies report information, methodologies for obtaining an ESG rating, and the classification of financial products. BlackRock uses standardized methods to create indexed products that provide options for investors’ various financial and sustainable goals, from simpler methodologies such as negative screening that only eliminate certain industries to strategies that seek out investments by subject or impact.
“At BlackRock we’re committed to providing investors with full transparency about the sustainable objectives and characteristics for all of our investment strategies. We’re committed to providing the sustainable building blocks of investment portfolios, so that all investors have sustainable options,” says Jordie Olivella.
Myth 3: It costs more to invest with ESG products
Most investors assume it’s more expensive to invest in sustainable products, but that’s not always true. According to BlackRock, the management costs of sustainable funds and ETFs are often equivalent to, and in some cases, lower than standard products.
“iShares sustainable ETFs are on average five times less expensive than actively managed sustainable mutual funds, and as flows into sustainable products continue, these costs will keep falling,” weighs in Jordie Olivella
As the shift to sustainable investing progresses it’s important to understand the facts. Flows into sustainable strategies show no signs of slowing down – according to BlackRock 2020 Global Sustainable Investing Survey, global clients are planning on doubling their allocations into sustainable strategies over the next five years.
“Now is the opportunity to understand the facts behind sustainable investments and get ahead of the demand,” concludes the firm.
In Latin America: this material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice nor an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any Fund (nor shall any such shares be offered or sold to any person) in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities law of that jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred to in this material, it is possible that some or all of the funds may not have been registered with the securities regulator of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American country and thus might not be publicly offered within any such country. The securities regulators of such countries have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx
The U.S. equity market set a record high during the last week of July with the benchmark S&P 500 index closing higher for the sixth consecutive month, overriding fears of rising inflation and a potential slowdown in economic growth.On July 19, the U.S. Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that the COVID-19 induced two month U.S. recession from March to April of 2020 was the shortest on record, putting the 1980 February to July recession in second place.
Upcoming key events include Fed Chairman Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this year’s theme “Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy,” on Aug. 26, which follows the July jobs report that came out on August 6th. Goldman Sachs economists “expect the Fed will first hint that it intends to decrease the size of its $120 billion monthly asset purchases at its September meeting, formally announce tapering in December, and begin tapering in early 2022.” Chairman Bernanke’s 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ statement that the Fed “could in the next few meetings take a step down in its pace of purchases” started a five-day, 40 basis point rise in the 10-year UST yield to 2.6% and 5% drop in stocks.
GAMCO’s Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ stock research ideas highlighted as ‘stock picks’ during BARRON’S 2021 Midyear Roundtable, published in the July 19, issue, were: CNH Industrial (CNHI) that recently purchased Raven Industries (RAVN), a leader in precision-agriculture technology, Mexico’s TV network Grupo Televisa (TV) popular with the Spanish-speaking population, Deutsche Telekom (DTE) with a valuable stake in T-Mobile US (TMUS), Vivendi (VIV) a play on music streaming, ViacomCBS (VIACA) a restructuring play, Liberty Braves Group (BATRA) with John Malone at bat, Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) with James Dolan up, and Traton (8TRA) a truck maker spun out of Volkswagen with 25% of the Class 8 truck market in Europe, and now in the U.S. via its purchase of Lisle, Illinois based Navistar Inc.
Looking to M&A, Willis Towers Watson (WLTW) and Aon (AON) mutually agreed to walk away from their all-stock, $30 billion merger. Willis Towers Watson agreed to be acquired by Aon in March 2020 and terms of the deal called for Willis Towers shareholders to receive 1.08 shares of Aon for each share. In June, the U.S. DOJ filed suit to block the deal even though the European Commission had already granted conditional regulatory approval after the parties had agreed to sell overlapping business units that generated billions of dollars in revenue. Following efforts to negotiate additional divestitures to mollify the DOJ, an impasse was reached with the regulator and the parties opted to continue as separate companies. Willis Towers Watson received a $1 billion termination fee from Aon as a result, and will use the funds to buy back $1 billion of its stock. The unexpected move resulted in spreads widening on other mergers in sympathy.
Although this was a shock to the M&A market, we believe conditions are strong for continued strength building off of the record $2.8 billion from the first half of the year. Favourable dynamics remain in place, including historically low interest rates, accommodating debt markets, substantial dry powder held by private equity firms and management teams looking to better compete in an overall evolving global marketplace. While more deals do not necessarily translate to outsized returns, it, coupled with these various drivers, certainly provides for an encouraging landscaping and backdrop for investment opportunities within a portfolio like ours.
Rounding out our outlook with the convertibles space, the global convertible market saw some weakness in July, weighed down by a few large Chinese issuers. While some of these issues are now more attractively priced, we continue to view them cautiously. July was also the worst month for new issuance globally in nearly two years with only $3.4 billion of convertibles pricing. We are confident that issuance will pick back up as companies exit quiet periods around earnings and we approach typically busier fall months. The fundamental reasons for increased convertible issuance are still quite intact with low interest rates, increasing equity prices, and favourable tax environments available to most potential issuers.
To summarize, GAMCO continues to expect more deals — mergers, spinoffs, and other forms of financial engineering. Stocks should continue to do well with politicians spending to ensure a good economy for the midterms, and convertibles are an appealing way to stay invested in equities with the benefit of asymmetric risk exposure.
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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552 Class I EUR – LU0687944396 Class A USD – LU0687943745 Class A EUR – LU0687943661 Class R USD – LU1453360825 Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648 Class I EUR – LU1216601564 Class A USD – LU1216600913 Class A EUR – LU1216600673 Class R USD – LU1453359900 Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
Disclaimer: The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
On September 9 at 6:30 p.m. (ET), a fundraising dinner will be held at the Rusty Pelican, Miami and all proceeds will be donated to Global Empowerment Mission, which carries out three collections for those affected by the collapse of June 24 that left 98 dead and dozens without a home
So far we have raised US$50,000, but there is still a lot more we can do! We are now aiming to reach US$75,000. There are still available tables and new sponsors continue to be welcome.
15 firms from the asset and wealth management community in Southern Florida are already participating, divided in Diamond, Gold and Silver sponsorships.
Diamond: Funds Society, MFS, Ninety One Gold: AXA Investment Managers, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bolton Global
Capital, Brown Advisory, Insigneo, Janus Henderson Investors, Jupiter Asset Management,
Schroders, Thornburg Investment Management Silver: RWC, Natixis Investment Management, Manulife Investment Management, Franklin Templeton
At a time when interest rates are either ultra-low or even negative, positive inflation-adjusted returns are in short supply. To achieve them, bond investors have turned to strategies that have the flexibility to invest in different types of fixed income, the most popular of which are multi asset credit (MAC) and absolute return fixed income (ARFI).
Both have plenty to commend them. But they should not necessarily compete for investors’ capital.
We would argue that it doesn’t have to be a case of one or the other. In fact, combining the two can improve a bond portfolio’s diversification and increase its overall risk-adjusted returns over the long run. That’s because MAC strategies tend to do particularly well when interest rates and bond spreads are stable, while ARFI portfolios outperform during periods of credit stress or when interest rates are volatile.
Universe and diversification
For a start, MAC strategies tend to have a tilt towards high yield rather than investment grade bonds. This helps them perform especially well when market volatility is low and yield spreads between corporate and government bonds are narrowing. Their overall credit investment remit, however, can be very broad; some portfolios include investments in private debt and loans. This means MAC strategies traditionally offer greater diversification than a direct allocation to high yield credit. It is the freedom to allocate capital across credit sectors that gives portfolio managers the opportunity to secure excess returns. Not only can they shift between investment grade and high yield, but also within those broad sectors into loans, subordinated bank debt and more.
By comparison, the ARFI universe tends to be, by design, much broader, embracing the full fixed income toolkit; the investment styles and the sources of excess return or ‘alpha’ are more diverse than for MAC strategies. In many cases such portfolios also invest in credit, but often do so alongside currencies, interest rate products and derivatives. Probably the most common feature of ARFI strategies is the incorporation of capital protection/risk mitigation trades. The aim here is to improve risk-adjusted returns, but it also means that absolute return strategies tend to lag during bull markets in credit spreads.
ARFI strategies also use all the investment tools available, including derivatives, to manage risk – keeping the desired exposure while hedging out unwanted risk – across the full spectrum of fixed income sectors. This makes ARFI strategies less sensitive than MAC strategies to the overall direction of the credit market. For example, an ARFI strategy can protect against the risk of inflation and rising rates by taking a negative duration position.
As ARFI strategies usually have a lower allocation to high yield debt than MAC portfolios, they tend to have lower solvency capital requirements (SCR), making them more attractive as investments among insurance companies that are subject to Solvency II regulations.
The differences between the two strategies mean that correlation of the returns generated by ARFI and MAC strategies tends to be relatively low, and certainly much lower than between the returns of the different funds within the MAC universe (see Fig. 1). Combining the two strategies could thus offer diversification benefits compared to investing in just one.
Liquidity versus returns
As a rule of thumb, credit investments and emerging market bonds tend to be less liquid than developed market sovereign debt and currencies. Thus, MAC strategies – which invest heavily in such assets – are usually less liquid than their ARFI counterparts, particularly if they have allocations to loans or private debt. This makes the risk of a sharp drawdown – or a sizeable peak to trough capital loss – more significant for the MAC strategies. This is particularly challenging during periods when market liquidity evaporates, as was the case in March 2020 and December 2018 (see Fig. 2). This is also the case even when comparing the top quartile MAC strategies with Pictet’s Absolute Return Fixed Income strategy.
On the flip side, by capturing this liquidity premia, MAC strategies tend to deliver higher returns, on average, than their ARFI peers over the course of a market cycle.
For a typical MAC strategy, up to 80 per cent of performance would be attributed to movements in yield spreads. By comparison, Pictet’s Absolute Return Fixed Income strategy aims to diversify the sources of return evenly between spreads, rates and currencies. By doing so, Pictet targets a liquid portfolio at all times.
The source of return also tends to be different, with MAC taking a more bottom-up approach and ARFI tending to place more emphasis on top-down, macroeconomic factors in portfolio construction. In our ARFI strategy, for example, only about 10 per cent of overall performance comes from security selection.
Manager diversification matters
One downside of the ARFI approach is the fact that the strategies are not homogenous, and success is highly dependent on manager skill. Due diligence is thus paramount. The same can also be said of MAC, where return dispersion within the universe is similarly high.
Both are dependent on portfolio managers’ timing when rotating between different investments. In fact, this is arguably more important for MAC strategies given that such portfolios concentrate investments in a narrower range of sectors and are less liquid.
Best of both worlds?
Despite their differences, MAC and ARFI vie for the same type of investor – one who is looking for a flexible approach that generates returns even in the current climate of low yields and low credit spreads. Yet, there are enough differences for the two types of strategies to be complementary. MAC can offer access to more exotic and less liquid securities that offer the prospect of higher yield. A well-balanced ARFI strategy, meanwhile, can harness strong macroeconomic trends while reducing risk and yet still delivering positive real returns.
By combining the two and selecting the managers that play to each strategy’s strengths, investors can thus achieve better risk adjusted returns than by focusing on either one in isolation (see Fig. 3).
Written by Andrés Sánchez Balcázar, Head of Global Bonds team at Pictet Asset Management.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented herein.
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This material is for distribution to professional investors only. However it is not intended for distribution to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Any opinion, estimate or forecast may be changed at any time without prior warning. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested.
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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Los inversores de los mercados emergentes esperan el momento adecuado para hacer uso del efectivo
Emerging market (EM) investors are holding high levels of cash in their portfolios, waiting for markets to stabilize before investing in higher-yielding assets, according to HSBC. Its latest quarterly EM Sentiment Survey found that 45% of investors polled have in excess of 5% of their portfolios in cash and 59% don’t expect to deploy it over the next three months.
“Emerging market investors are waiting for the right time to invest because the markets have been gyrating wildly over the past two months. Only last month, the US Federal Reserve turned more hawkish and the focus was on rate rises and tapering and this month the pendulum has swung completely the other way as investors worry about the continued impact of COVID on growth”, said Murat Ulgen, Global Head of EM Research at the firm.
The survey -the fifth of its kind in a series first launched in June 2020- was conducted between 8 June 2021 and 23 July 2021 among 124 investors from 119 institutions representing 506 billion dollars of EM assets under management.
The poll shows that around half of investors are neutral on the prospects for EM countries over the next three months, although 40% are now bullish, up from 34% in the first quarter of the year. Risk appetite (measured on a scale from 0 to 10 where 10 means the greatest willingness to take risk) also rose modestly to 6.17 from 6.04
EM investors are, however, becoming less optimistic on the growth outlook for EM countries over the next 12 months and have, therefore, also downgraded their inflation expectations. The proportion who are optimistic on growth dropped to 60% in the most recent survey, down from 89% at the end of last year, and those expecting inflation to rise dropped to 59% from 77% at the end of the first quarter.
Rates, the biggest concern
Nevertheless, a clear majority of investors (56%) still expect to see higher policy rates across EM countries with many central banks, including those of Brazil, Russia, Hungary and Mexico, already having hiked rates in 2021. “The feeling among investors is that while the growth outlook is dimmer and inflation is less of a concern than at the beginning of the year, EM countries will continue to hike rates because they are trying to pre-empt Fed tightening and avoid a repeat of the taper tantrum we saw in 2013-2014,” commented Ulgen.
The prospect of tightening by the US Federal Reserve was cited by more respondents as a concern than any other issue, ahead of inflation and COVID-19. This is encouraging investors to focus on economies with rapid rate increases. In this sense, Ulgen pointed out that when you fear that global rates are going to rise, “you’re going to be looking for a higher risk premium to invest in the emerging markets as insulation against tapering”.
With expectations for further rate rises in EM countries, 40% of survey respondents expect EM FX to appreciate against the US dollar, up from 22% in April. Those expectations tend to be most bullish in countries that are frontloading rate hikes, notably Russia and Brazil. Similarly, the poll results suggest investors are seeking a higher risk premium in fixed income as well, citing Russia (22% of the total), Nigeria (13% of the total) and South Africa (12% of the total) as the top three markets with a more favourable outlook in local currency debt.
While Asia remains the most favoured investment destination, the net sentiment has declined as investors are focusing on countries that are benefitting from the rise in commodity prices, including Latin America, Middle East and Africa.
Lastly, engagement with environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing continues to rise, with 45% of respondents now running an ESG portfolio either directly indirectly, up from 30% in June 2020. Climate change, inequality, and minority shareholder protection remain the top three ESG concerns respectively.
Foto cedidaNathalie Wallace, nueva directora global de inversión sostenible de Natixis Investment Managers. Nathalie Wallace, nueva directora global de inversión sostenible de Natixis Investment Managers
Natixis Investment Managershas appointed Nathalie Wallace as Global Head of Sustainable Investing, effective 1st September. She will report to Joseph Pinto, Head of Distribution for Europe, Latin America, Middle East and Asia Pacific, and will be based in Boston.
In a press release, the asset manager has revealed that, in her role, Wallace will be responsible for driving the firm’s ESG commitments across its distribution network, its affiliate managers and through its participation in industry-wide initiatives. She will also focus on supporting clients on their ESG journey from early stage integration to allocation to impact investing. “ESG is at the heart of the strategic ambitions of Natixis IM, which targets to have 600 billion euros of its AUM, equivalent to around 50% of the total, invested in the sustainable or impact investing category by 2024.
Wallace joins from Mirova US, where she was Head of ESG Strategy & Development. She earned her bachelor’s degree at the Institut Supérieur de Gestion Business School in Paris, France and is a Certified International Investment Analyst (CIIA). She served as French Foreign Trade Advisor from 2014 to 2020 and is a member of the CFA Institute’s ESG Technical Committee.
“Having most recently worked at Mirova, our dedicated sustainable investment affiliate, Nathalie, with her deep knowledge and long industry experience, is ideally placed to lead our strategy to support clients in their journey to align their ESG beliefs with their investment goals, and to help us further our contribution to the transition to a more sustainable global economy”, commented Tim Ryan, CEO of Natixis IM.
There is no summer lull for investors this year. The global economy is powering ahead despite the resurgence of COVID-19 infections while inflationary pressures continue to build, particularly in the US. Then there’s renewed upheaval in China.
The Chinese government’s surprise ban on for-profit after-school tutoring, essentially shutting down the circa USD100 billion edu-tech sector, has raised concerns about an intensification of Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns. The latest intervention comes on the heels of cybersecurity investigations of the ride hailing app DiDi and other e-commerce companies, increased scrutiny of overseas IPOs and the imposition of fines and restrictions on some of China’s largest e-commerce firms.
Authorities have also moved to restrict the use of the variable interest entities (VIE) structure – holding companies based in tax haven jurisdictions and designed to allow foreign investors to invest in key sectors such as tech without giving them any operational control.
A positive reading of such developments is that they are a belated response to innovation and the breakneck growth of industries that flourished in the absence of a regulatory framework. Even though such moves would in effect add a permanent ‘risk premium’ to Chinese stocks and bonds, the should not fundamentally change China’s growth model or the broader investment case for the country’s financial assets.
Nonetheless, a greater degree of caution seems sensible and we feel justified in taking profits in Chinese bonds, which have performed strongly year-to-date.
More broadly, we retain a neutral allocation across equities, bonds and cash; still, we continue to favour assets that benefit from stronger economic potential, such as European stocks.
Our business cycle analysis shows that economic activity is picking up strongly across the euro zone, following a sharp deceleration over the last two quarters. Purchasing manager indices remain buoyant, especially in the service sector. Retail sales have meanwhile recovered above the pre-pandemic trend. Bank lending conditions are also easing, which augurs well for future credit growth. Overall, it would seem that European economic growth is more likely to to surpass consensus forecasts than the US, where we are starting to see some signs that its expansion is moderating. Worryingly, second quarter GDP growth came in at just 6.5 per cent on an annualised basis – some 2 percentage points below the consensus forecast.
China’s growth has clearly peaked with industrial production, retail sales and construction all coming in below their three-year average. Even so, we still expect a very respectable 10 per cent expansion in GDP for the year – some distance above the 8.5 per cent consensus forecast.
Should Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns threaten growth, however, there is some comfort to be taken from our liquidity indicators, which show that China has plenty of monetary fire power. Indeed, we already saw authorities take action in July, when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR); we expect to see more action in coming months.
The US is moving in the opposite direction, with the US Federal Reserve edging into the first stages of a tightening cycle. Notably, at its latest meeting, the US central bank highlighted the improvement in economic conditions and “progress” in the labour market. However, we expect the tightening journey to be a relatively slow one, and for now US monetary policy remains the loosest of all the world’s major economies, according to our models.
One of the clearest signals from our valuation models is that US Treasures now look expensive, particularly when compared to levels implied by the cyclical trends we monitor.
The same applies to US equities. US stocks’ price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5 times based on 12 month forward earnings can only be sustained if trend growth is unchanged, profit margins are stable at high levels and bond yields stay low. So far, the recovery in US earnings has been in line with GDP (see Fig. 2), and we think further upside to this year’s corporate profit growth is unlikely in the absence of an upward revision to US GDP growth forecasts.
Technical indicators suggest the correlation in the returns of equities and bonds has turned negative again, improving the diversification appeal of fixed income.
Another conclusion to draw from our technical gauges is that investors appear more cautious. This is arguably reflected in the strong inflows into government bonds seen in recent weeks, as well as into equity funds that invest in quality stocks. Some USD6.7 billion flowed into tech, healthcare and consumer goods stocks in the first three weeks of July at expense of cyclical sectors, according to EPFR data. Approximately USD3.1 billion was withdrawn from financials, materials and energy stocks in the same period.
Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist.
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Foto cedidaRobert Sharps, asumirá como CEO de T.Rowe Price en 2022. Rob Sharps
T. Rowe Price has recently announced key leadership transitions. Its CEO and chair of the Board of Directors, Bill Stromberg, will retire on December 31, 2021, after 35 years at the firm. In a press release, the asset manager has revealed that Rob Sharps, its current president, head of investments, CIO and a member of the firm’s Management Committee, will succeed him as of January 1.
Sharps will then become president and CEO, take over as chair of the Management Committee and join the Board of Directors. He joined T. Rowe Price in 1997 as an equity analyst and his role and influence have broadened in recent years as he has taken a more active role in corporate strategy, product development and key client relationships. Before becoming head of investments and group CIO, Sharps was co-head of Global Equity, the longtime portfolio manager of the US Large-Cap Growth Equity Strategy, and portfolio manager of the former US Growth & Income Equity Strategy.
“I am honored to be the next CEO of T. Rowe Price and am grateful for the confidence that both Bill and the Board have placed in me. T. Rowe Price is well positioned to execute on significant opportunities ahead, and I am excited to lead our business forward and continue helping our clients achieve their financial goals”, he said.
Alan D. Wilson, lead independent director, highlighted that Stromberg has been a remarkable leader and highly effective CEO: “He has deftly navigated the firm through a period of significant change and disruption in the industry. Under his leadership, significant investments in our investment, distribution, product, operations, technology, and corporate function teams have helped the company deliver strong results for clients and take advantage of strong markets to grow assets under management, revenues, earnings, and dividends”, he added.
Lastly, Stromberg commented that, over the course of hist 20-year partnership with Rob, he has consistently demonstrated his abilities as “a talented investor, a principled decision-maker, and an accessible and impactful leader of people and processes”.
Additional leadership transitions
The firm has also announced other changes in senior positions. Specifically, Céline Dufétel, chief operating officer (COO), chief financial officer (CFO), and treasurer, will be stepping down, but she will serve in an advisory role until August 31, 2021, “to ensure a seamless transition”. Jen Dardis, currently head of Finance, will take over her roles and join the Management Committee.
Besides, Eric Veiel, currently co-head of Global Equity, head of U.S. Equity, and chair of the U.S. Equity Steering Committee (ESC), will become head of Global Equity, as of January 1, 2022. At that time, Josh Nelson, currently associate head of U.S. Equity, will become head of U.S. Equity and chair of the U.S. ESC and will join the Management Committee.
