Offshore archivos - Funds Society

Rescue Frenzy in Private Debt: The Canary in the Coal Mine or Just an Episode?

At the beginning of the last century, canaries helped miners detect toxic gases that could put them in danger. This metaphor seems especially relevant today, according to those who see a warning sign in the wave of redemptions experienced by private debt funds globally. Some see risk in this industry, one of the alternative asset classes that has generated the most interest in recent years—while others view it as a temporary episode of anxiety against the backdrop of solid market fundamentals. Time will tell which side is right, but industry professionals are watching all available signals closely.

These emerging doubts around the asset class come after years of strong growth, which have left their mark on the industry’s size. Figures from the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) show that the category ended last year with global AUM of more than 2.5 trillion dollars. Moreover, according to data compiled by S&P Global Ratings, 2025 saw industry fundraising reach 224.25 billion dollars worldwide.

Against this backdrop, the year so far has brought a series of major redemption announcements from large international funds such as Blackstone, Blue Owl, BlackRock, and Apollo. Does this mean the asset class is heading into a downturn? Industry participants downplay the situation, asserting that this is not a looming financial crisis, as some more alarmist voices have suggested. That said, this does not mean they see no areas of risk, especially given the dispersion and heterogeneity of the sector.

Illiquidity: nothing new under the sun

For Blue Owl, what is happening is simply a natural phenomenon tied to one of the core characteristics of alternative investments: illiquidity.

“These vehicles are designed to balance access to long-term assets with periodic liquidity windows. This trade-off—accepting limited liquidity in exchange for higher returns—is intentional and, when properly managed, allows strategies to function exactly as designed. Limited liquidity is not a flaw of the model; it is a structural feature of it,” says Felipe Manzo, Managing Director and Head of Private Wealth for Latin America at the firm, in comments to Funds Society.

In that sense, he says they do not see a systemic problem, but rather “specific situations.”

According to Manzo, the current situation stems from a gap between market sentiment and the fundamentals of the vehicles themselves. “Private credit continues to offer an attractive premium relative to public credit markets, with solid opportunities in high-quality borrowers,” he says, adding that more disciplined strategies tend to prevail in periods of volatility. “At Blue Owl, we believe we are particularly well positioned to navigate this environment, thanks to a rigorous credit analysis process and a diversified portfolio that has demonstrated resilience and solid returns across the business, not only in credit,” he notes.

At CIO Invest, a boutique specialized in alternatives, they call for a precise diagnosis of the phenomenon. This is not an industry-wide liquidity crisis, according to the firm’s team, but rather a specific tension in certain vehicles, where market sentiment is leading investors to request redemptions above established contractual limits. “That distinction is crucial,” they stress.

The role of semi-liquid vehicles

One factor that has accelerated redemption dynamics is the creation of semi-liquid funds—alternative structures designed to offer somewhat greater liquidity. Given this feature, it is not surprising that these products are seen as the spearhead that has opened the door to alternative strategies for a more retail-oriented investor base over the years.

However, despite offering more flexibility for withdrawals than traditional alternative funds, these episodes have served as a reminder that illiquid assets remain illiquid assets.

“Semi-liquid vehicles were designed with redemption limits precisely to manage this reality, but when sentiment deteriorates, investors seek to exit in volumes that far exceed those thresholds. That works as long as inflows exceed outflows, but when sentiment reverses, the system fractures,” explain sources at CIO Invest.

As such, this appears to be a localized issue, since traditional closed-ended vehicles, pure private credit platforms, and structures such as CLOs are not currently facing this dilemma.

At Blue Owl, they also highlight the role of wealth management channels in current dynamics. “The growth of private banking and wealth management channels has significantly expanded access to private markets. At the same time, this dynamic has raised the level of demand and responsibility for managers,” says Manzo.

Short-term flows

Regardless of the long-term impact, it appears that some damage has already been done. Considering that individual investors tend to be more sensitive to so-called “headline risk” than other segments—such as institutional investors—the expectation is that redemptions currently being deferred due to withdrawal limits will continue to drive outflows in the short term.

A report from Goldman Sachs Research indicates that the trend of declining sales and rising redemptions began in the last quarter of last year, driven by the prospect of lower future returns—given lower base rates, tighter spreads, and a credit event rate that has risen slightly from previously negligible levels—as well as increased media focus.

Looking ahead, the investment bank estimates that outflows will range between 45 billion and 70 billion dollars over the next two years. Even so, the firm does not expect this to trigger a wave of asset sales across the industry.

“Considering certain levels of liquidity buffers within funds (around 19% of the industry’s NAV and about 11% of total gross fund assets), the maturity profile of loans (typically between 5 and 7 years), managers’ ability to provide liquidity, the capacity to maintain quarterly redemption limits of 5%, and the ability to use leverage, we believe the need to liquidate private loans at an industry level will be limited,” Goldman Sachs noted.

Even so, from the perspective of asset managers, this phenomenon opens up a behavioral risk that was not previously on their radar. “The real risk is not that loans will default en masse, but that sustained redemptions will force asset sales at discounts, depressing NAVs and triggering further redemptions in a vicious cycle. That is the scenario that needs to be closely monitored,” conclude sources at CIO Invest.

Peru Heads Toward a New Political Cycle After a Decade of Presidential Turnover

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

During the past decade, Peru has become a true case study, given the unusual turnover experienced at the Casa de Pizarro and the relative resilience its economy has shown amid political turmoil. Since the end of Ollanta Humala’s term, the last president to complete his mandate, in July 2016, the country has had eight presidents, some of whom did not even reach an anniversary in office. Nevertheless, the Andean country’s currency and economy have remained relatively firm.

Now, as the country enters a new political cycle, market participants are following the process with relative calm. With little expectation of anything that could affect the business climate and with changes to the political system underway, local actors are behaving with relative composure. That said, the financial industry emphasizes that political instability has carried an economic cost, and that the backdrop to all market movements today is the thorny conflict in the Middle East.

Peruvian assets have delivered strong performance over the past 12 months across various dimensions, but have come under pressure in the last month. The dollar has risen by around 3.5% against the sol, while the stock market, measured by the MSCI NUAM Peru Select Capped 15% benchmark, has lost roughly 9% of its value. Market participants say this is not linked to any idiosyncratic factor, but rather reflects a month in which risk aversion has increased. In context, during that same period, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has declined by 11%.

As for expectations strictly tied to the Peruvian economy, the financial world is awaiting the April 12 general elections with relative calm. On this occasion, the country will vote not only for a new president, but also to elect vice presidents, 60 senate seats, 130 lower house seats, and five members of the Andean Parliament.

Relative calm

“The environment is suspiciously calm, and there is no sense of concern in the business sector,” says Jorge Espada, Co-Founder & Managing Partner at Valoro Capital, in a conversation with Funds Society.

In his view, the key is that the most adverse scenario for local assets—a far-left government controlling both the executive and both chambers of the legislature—appears unlikely. “That is ruled out today,” he says, noting that most of the leading candidates are aligned with the right, with the exception of social democrat Alfonso López-Chau.

“The market today is not pricing a binary scenario, but rather one of high fragmentation,” adds Carlos Müller, Director of Strategy and Investment Advisory for Global Wealth at BBVA. While Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori lead in the polls, both are polling at around 11% support, with a large share of undecided voters. “That makes a runoff almost inevitable and leaves the door open for late shifts, especially if a candidate emerges who connects with the demand for order and security,” he says.

There is also the congressional factor, where the exclusion of parties that fail to reach a 5% threshold encourages vote concentration. “At this point, it appears that the far left will not hold a meaningful share in either chamber,” Espada adds. “That may explain the calm seen during this electoral process.”

A new political framework

The April elections also bring a key change in institutional design: the return of Peru’s Senate after more than three decades. Following its elimination in 1992, the 2024 constitutional reform, under the government of Dina Boluarte, restored bicameralism, with senators to be elected in the upcoming vote.

“Investors are closely watching the evolution of the general elections, not only regarding the presidency but also the Senate, given the importance this institution will have in the country’s new political architecture,” explains Luis Ramos, Head of Equity Strategy at LarrainVial Research.

In this context, the most favorable scenario for local assets, according to the firm, is “the combination of a pro-market president and a thoughtful Senate capable of containing populist initiatives that create regulatory risk, weaken fiscal anchors, and hinder capital market development.”

The main domestic risk to the local economy, according to LarrainVial, is populism. While a bicameral and politically fragmented Congress can act as a counterbalance to structural reforms, “this does not necessarily prevent the approval of populist measures, which often require only simple majorities,” Ramos warns.

The myth of decoupling

Peru’s macroeconomic conditions have remained relatively stable throughout this decade of political instability, giving rise to the idea that “politics and the economy move on separate tracks.” However, local market participants reject this view, arguing that the situation has come at a cost.

“It is very generous to say that Peru has separate tracks, because it is costing us,” says Espada of Valoro Capital. In a favorable global commodities cycle, he explains, Peru would likely be growing between 5% and 6%. Instead, the economy is expanding at around 3%. This gap, he argues, is due to institutional deterioration.

For Müller of BBVA, there are nuances to the decoupling narrative. “The Peruvian economy still has the capacity to remain relatively separate from politics in this cycle,” supported by controlled inflation, high reserves, external strength, favorable terms of trade, and a credible central bank.

“That said, this decoupling is not infinite,” he stresses. “Politics may not break the macro fundamentals immediately, but it can slow investment when uncertainty persists,” he adds, noting that the resilience shown by the local economy “does not imply immunity.”

Echoes of war from abroad

Regardless of domestic developments, the key issue for the financial industry today is the global impact of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. “The main question for investors right now is the persistence of the conflict,” says Ramos of LarrainVial Research.

Given relatively favorable conditions, the market’s base case remains positive growth, but the impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran will be felt. “For the remainder of the year, the central view is still positive growth, but less clean than a few months ago,” says Müller. In this context, BBVA expects growth of 2.9% for the country in 2026, due to a supply shock, with a more affected first half and improvement in the second.

“This year, if the situation in the Middle East normalizes, we should end with growth above 3%,” adds Espada of Valoro Capital. Meanwhile, LarrainVial Research estimates growth at 3.4% for the Andean country this year if the conflict proves transitory; if it persists, growth would cool to 2.6%.

For Credicorp Capital, growth is expected to range between 3% and 3.5%, depending on how global risks evolve. “The final impact will depend on the magnitude and duration of the shocks,” the firm said in a recent report.

David López Takes Charge of Thoma Bravo’s Business in LatAm

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

LinkedIn David López, Head of LatAm at Thoma Bravo

The specialized investment firm Thoma Bravo, dedicated to investing in software companies, recruited David López to lead its business in Latin America. According to what the executive shared on his professional LinkedIn network, he recently assumed the role of Head of LatAm for the firm.

With this, López brings a track record of more than ten years in the financial industry, holding positions across different Latin American financial capitals and extensive experience dealing with private markets.

Previously, the professional spent more than four years at BlackRock, where he worked until this month as Co-Head of Alternatives for Latin America and the US Offshore market. He also worked as Vice President of Alternatives for Colombia, Peru, Chile, and Central America. During this period, the professional relocated from Bogotá to Miami, according to his profile.

Before that, López served as Alternatives Senior Manager at SURA México and as Alternative Investment Manager at SURA Asset Management, as well as a fund analyst in the Colombian branch of BTG Pactual.

Now, the executive joins one of the largest software-focused investment firms in the world, with assets exceeding 181 billion dollars. The firm has private equity and credit strategies and has invested in around 555 technology companies.

This Is the New Investment Moment for Latin America

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Global investors, policymakers, and business leaders gathered in Miami during the sessions organized by the FII Institute to analyze how capital is shifting across regions, sectors, and technologies in a period marked by geopolitical and economic changes and shocks.

One of the main conclusions was the key role that Latin America is playing in the reconfiguration of global capital flows. At the center of the debate on its role are nearshoring, infrastructure, energy, and human capital as key drivers of long-term growth.

In this context, participants highlighted Latin America’s transformation into a safe haven and a growth engine, with abundant natural resources, expanding capital markets, and increasing geopolitical relevance. “This is the moment to move from fragmentation to alignment, from hesitation to action. The new Latin American order will not be defined by speeches, but by decisions, alliances, and investment,” said Richard Attias, Chairman of the Executive Committee and Acting CEO of the FII Institute.

Capital in motion

Among the most notable themes during the event were strong capital inflows into key markets such as Brazil, Latin America’s role in global food and energy security, and the need to invest in infrastructure and education to unlock long-term returns.

“We are moving away from viewing social investment as a cost and recognizing it as the foundation of economic growth, because addressing early childhood, health, education, and sanitation is what truly shapes a country’s future,” said María José Pinto González Artigas, Vice President of Ecuador.

Throughout the sessions, three messages were consistently emphasized: capital is shifting toward new geographies, including Latin America; it is increasingly focused on long-term resilience and real-economy impact; and it is moving rapidly, driven by geopolitics, technology, and energy transitions.

They also agreed that in a world where disruption is the “new normal,” capital is being repositioned. “As global leaders continue their conversations in the coming days, the focus remains the same: how to align capital with opportunity and how to turn that movement into measurable impact,” noted the FII Institute.

Energy, infrastructure, and the next investment cycle

When it comes to turning challenges into opportunities, Venezuela and the new opportunities in its technology sector took center stage. Speaking remotely, Delcy Rodríguez Gómez, Acting President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, highlighted that the country is welcoming more than 120 energy companies from the United States, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Europe amid legal reforms. According to her, Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law and broader legal reforms have been designed to provide the legal certainty investors need.

Another clear area of opportunity is infrastructure. According to experts participating in a panel on the topic, discussions in this sector are focused on the challenges that energy and electricity supply constraints pose for nearshoring, as well as the rapid expansion of industrial infrastructure and data centers. Participants also highlighted the role of tourism, logistics, and cultural infrastructure in generating long-term returns.

In this regard, Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio, Chairman of the World Travel & Tourism Council, emphasized the importance of Miami and investment partnerships for Latin America’s success: “Global public-private collaboration is essential for Latin America’s success, and Miami is proof of that. Most flights from Europeans traveling to Latin America pass through Miami.”

BAI Capital Launches the ALMA Miami Real Estate Project for $170 Million

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

conflict in Iran and investment thesis — Photo courtesyStudent housing complex, ALMA Miami. BAI Capital

BAI Capital, a private equity investment and real estate development firm that promotes permanent residency in the United States, formally announces the start of the key development phases of ALMA Miami. With a total projected investment of $170.6 million, this student housing complex is positioned as one of the most robust real estate investment opportunities for Latin American capital in South Florida.

Real estate megaproject

The project is strategically located just 0.6 miles (an 8-minute walk) from Florida International University (FIU), an institution that hosts more than 54,000 students from over 130 countries. Currently, there is a massive housing shortage in the area, as the university can only accommodate 8% of its students on campus.

ALMA Miami is a 26-story vertical project with 565 units, 644 beds, and 644 parking spaces, designed under the concept of “functional luxury.” After obtaining Site Plan approval in January 2026, the timeline includes completion of plans in May of this year, with the goal of breaking ground in January 2027 and delivery in the summer of 2029.

Green Card through investment

In a context of financial volatility, Mexican investors have turned their attention to safe-haven dollar-denominated assets that offer not only returns but also legal certainty.

ALMA Miami responds to this demand by allowing Mexican capital to participate in an institutional-scale project, previously reserved for large pension funds or U.S. family offices.

“For Mexican investors, ALMA Miami represents a direct bridge to the strongest economy in the world through a tangible, high-demand asset,” says Juan Carlos Eguiarte, Country Manager of BAI Capital in Mexico. “We are not just building a property; we are offering an investment structure that complies with the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 (RIA), allowing Mexican investors and their families to relocate immediately to the U.S. while the Green Card process is completed, which makes this program the Ferrari of visas.”

Economic impact and world-class partnerships

The relevance of ALMA Miami for the region is also reflected in its social and labor impact. The development is expected to generate approximately 1,875 jobs, quadrupling the legal requirement for EB-5 program investors.

To ensure successful execution, BAI Capital has partnered with top-tier strategic allies in the U.S.: BKV Group for architecture, HITT Contracting Inc. for construction, and Asset Living, a leader with 40 years of experience, for property management.

The Conflict in Iran Delays the Thesis, but Does Not Deactivate It

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

integración de gestoras y Access Capital Partners — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

One more week, market attention remains focused on energy prices and fears of a possible stagflation. The verdict remains one of contained concern, without panic, as the conflict in Iran has increased volatility but has not severely damaged the performance of risk assets.

The macroeconomic situation is different from the one that preceded the 2022 energy crisis. In addition, the world is now 60% less dependent on oil than in the 1970s, which mitigates the structural impact.

That said, the historical threshold for real damage is clear: oil needs to more than double to trigger a recession or a bear market. In the case of WTI, that implies sustainably exceeding $140 per barrel, an outcome that is possible but not yet the base case. If energy spending were to double, it would absorb approximately 7% of U.S. disposable income, slowing consumption and weakening the Republican bloc ahead of the midterm elections.

Iran cannot win militarily, but it can keep oil prices elevated long enough to force a shift in Washington’s stance. Trump, under pressure from a largely anti-war public, the proximity of legislative elections, and an affordability crisis directly affecting his electoral base, has strong incentives to resolve the conflict quickly. Markets are pricing in a favorable outcome, but a deterioration in the situation could generate a further correction, not necessarily a bear market, but an episode uncomfortable enough to precipitate a resolution.

In recent days, we have received clear signs of a conciliatory stance from Trump, but Iran continues to play cat and mouse. The new deadline set by the U.S. president to reach a preliminary agreement expires on April 6.

Moreover, the macroeconomic similarity to the First Gulf War discourages abrupt changes in portfolio composition. In 1990–91, the U.S. economy was already losing momentum before Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. In 2026, the pattern is repeating: before the attacks on Iran, the economy was already feeling the impact of intermittent tariffs, weak hiring, and inflationary pressures that, although easing, had not disappeared. In fact, Greenspan had already been cutting rates for a year when Iraq invaded Kuwait, just like Powell, who had also begun easing before the Iranian conflict, reducing rates from 5.25%–5.50% to around 4.25%–4.50% between the second half of 2024 and early 2025.

The rate cuts implemented by the Fed in the second half of 2025 and the fiscal stimulus from the OBBBA plan are acting as buffers against the effects of the war on the economy. If the crisis is resolved within a reasonable timeframe, the boost to equities could be just as strong: from the lows of October 1990, the S&P 500 surged 26% in just three months, quickly recovering pre-conflict levels.

The outlook for the fixed income market points in the same direction. In 1990, Greenspan paused rate cuts when inflation expectations rose due to higher oil prices, and Treasury yields increased accordingly. However, the deterioration in the labor market and the recession forced a resumption of cuts, and by the end of that year, Treasury yields were below pre-conflict levels.

Europe: a less burdensome starting point than in 2022

Although logic suggests comparing the Iranian conflict with the 2022 energy crisis, the starting point is substantially different. When Russia invaded Ukraine, eurozone inflation was already մոտ 6%. Today, with headline inflation at 1.9% and wage growth below 2%, the ECB has insufficient justification to raise rates.

Energy prices should be treated as a temporary supply shock, not as structural inflationary pressure. Tightening monetary policy in this context would repeat Trichet’s 2011 mistake and hinder an economy already hit by gas prices, tariffs, and Germany’s manufacturing crisis. The market is pricing in 76 basis points of hikes in 2026, which may create opportunities in the short and intermediate parts of the curve.

That said, it is worth remembering that, unlike the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the ECB’s sole objective is to keep inflation close to 2%. If oil spikes or stabilizes above $100, the memory of Trichet’s mistake may fade among Governing Council members.

The references from the 2022 episode are clear: equities and cyclical currencies do not bottom out until energy prices peak. In the meantime, the energy sector outperforms the market, defensives outperform cyclicals, and the dollar appreciates against major currencies.

The Strait of Hormuz is also the main transit route for helium and fertilizers, among other commodities that are difficult to substitute in production processes, introducing additional risks to food inflation and the global supply chain. This uncertainty particularly penalizes more open economies, such as those in Europe.

Before the subprime crisis, 79% of S&P 500 earnings came from cyclical sectors. Now, 57% comes from growth industries, making the U.S. index more defensive.

Currency markets: dollar strength and gold to the downside

The EUR/USD has corrected since the start of the conflict, confirming that the dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset remains intact despite downgrade concerns. As long as uncertainty persists, the relative strength of the U.S. currency will remain in place. The dollar is also a trending currency, and the breakout above its 200-day moving average provides technical support for this view.

However, the appreciation has fully erased the premium the market had assigned to EUR/USD following the tariff announcements on Liberation Day, although uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy remains high. Long-term models point to a somewhat overvalued dollar, and speculative investors have already closed their short positions on the greenback. Additionally, the market has shifted from expecting fed funds to end 2026 at 3% to seeing them anchored at 3.75%. The announcement of a truce would force a rapid reassessment of these expectations.

Contrary to what might be expected from a safe-haven asset, gold has fallen 14% in the month of March. The strength of the dollar, the sharp rise in real interest rates, and technical overbought conditions explain the move. However, the proximity of a truce (which would entail a reversal of these negative forces), the structural shift toward geopolitical multipolarity, and the procyclical turn toward expansionary fiscal policies maintain gold’s appeal as a diversifying element in multi-asset portfolios.

Funds Society Hosts Its First Funds Society Leaders Summit in Miami

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

With the support of CFA Society Miami as a partner, Funds Society is organizing the first edition of the Funds Society Leaders Summit in Miami. This is a meeting aimed at leaders in the asset and wealth management industry, created by and for the industry.

The Funds Society Leaders Summit will take place next April 21 at 10:00 am at the AKA Brickell Hotel in Miami, a sophisticated urban retreat located in the Brickell financial district, overlooking Biscayne Bay.

The event, designed in collaboration with CFA Society Miami, will feature top-level speakers and experts in key areas such as asset management, private banking, family offices, pension funds, and insurance companies, who will analyze the main challenges and trends currently shaping the industry.

The program will combine roundtable discussions with dedicated networking spaces and will conclude with a keynote session, followed by a cocktail at Casa Zeru, offering the perfect setting to exchange insights and continue expanding professional networks.

The event will include participation from panelists who are leading figures in the industry, such as Raúl Henríquez, CEO and Chairman of Insigneo Financial Group; Santiago Ulloa, Founder, Managing Partner and CIO of WE Family Offices; Jesús Valencia, Market Director – Florida International Market at UBS; and Rocío Harb, Director & Brand Manager at IPG Investment, among others.

Participating in the Funds Society Leaders Summit

The event is not only endorsed by CFA Society Miami, but also supported by Janus Henderson, M&G, Muzinich & Co, Capital Group, Fidelity, State Street Investment Management, Thornburg, and VanEck.

Places are limited, so if you have not yet registered, we encourage you to do so as soon as possible, as capacity is restricted. If you are interested, please contact this email: elena.santiso@fundssociety.com.

Arcalis Toesca Deploys the Full Range of U.S. Middle-Market Private Equity

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyArcalis Toesca Day, Santiago, Chile

A highly sought-after but highly competitive asset. Middle-market private equity in the U.S. is a space that has been drawing attention in the Chilean financial industry for some time, where alternative assets are becoming increasingly relevant within investment portfolios, both institutional and private.

Thus, bringing together what they expect will be many more in the future, the alternatives-focused boutique Arcalis Toesca , a joint venture of Arcalis Capital and Toesca Asset Management, gathered the local financial industry for the first event focused on middle-market private equity in Latin America. At the Ritz-Carlton hotel in Santiago, and before a full audience, the event served as a showcase for a variety of investment firms dedicated to the U.S. middle market, offering a range of investment philosophies, processes, and sectors.

Representatives from Kinderhook Industries, K1 Investment Management, Tenex Capital Management, Lee Equity Partners, Gridiron Capital, Lightyear Capital, Apogem Capital, Ridgemont Equity Partners, Monomoy Capital Partners, The Sterling Group, Arsenal Capital Partners, and SK Capital Partners presented their firms and the strategies for which they are raising capital.

The conference painted a picture of specialization in a space that is highly demanded by local LPs, but also highly competitive. “There are more private equity firms than McDonald’s,” said Neil Malik, co-founder of K1, drawing laughs from the audience. In that sense, the executive sees it as difficult for the industry to keep growing, placing it at a “cyclical peak.”

Even so, the U.S. middle market remains attractive. Part of this, explained Kevin Jackson, Managing Partner of Gridiron Capital, is due to it being a very large market, with thousands of companies across all sectors. In that regard, the executive emphasized the particular importance of relationships in this space to capture more attractive opportunities.

Thus, to navigate a sea of mid-sized companies, often family-owned, there are cross-cutting factors to consider, such as the importance of origination, sector expertise, and the possibilities that artificial intelligence opens up to transform portfolio companies.

The push for proprietary pipeline

As with private markets, origination is key. The high level of competition, in an environment with more than 3,000 private equity firms, means that the ability to find attractive deals becomes one of the core competencies in the industry.

“Every manager says they have proprietary pipelines, and it’s mostly true,” joked Christian Michalik, Managing Director at Kinderhook. Considering that the mission of private equity firms is to originate attractive deals for their investors, he noted, the ability to generate these deals is crucial.

At a later stage, another key mission for firms is value creation. Operational transformation, in that sense, is a fundamental tool for companies in the sector. “That’s how you move the needle in the middle market,” said Mike Green, CEO of Tenex Capital Management.

A common message during the conference was the importance of investing in businesses that are familiar to the firm, where expertise plays a key role in value creation.

Familiar niches

To achieve that desired value creation, the stance of the managers gathered by Arcalis Toesca is to focus on specific sectors where they have significant experience. “Sector expertise is very important in the middle market,” emphasized Michael Petrzela, partner at Lightyear Capital.

While there is a temptation to invest in “sexy” areas, trendy themes that capture market interest, it is better to focus on businesses they understand, as highlighted by Robert Michalik, Managing Director at Kinderhook.

From Ridgemont Equity Partners, partner Jack Purcell agrees with the importance of experience in the industries in which they invest, especially in the current market context. “The formula for this environment is different from ten years ago,” he said, adding that “this is not a market to be a sector tourist.”

The industrial revolution of AI

Of course, there was no shortage of discussion about the investment trend of the moment: artificial intelligence.

Beyond investing in companies dedicated to this technology, private equity firms are showing interest in the various ways this technology could improve the operations of their portfolio companies.

“AI will help us have better processes and operations and remove costs along the way,” highlighted Mark Gormley, partner at Lee Equity Partners, which could lead to “better economics.”

“It’s a great opportunity, but also a risk,” said Malik of K1 Investment Management. The firm’s approach has been to add artificial intelligence to its portfolio companies, either by incorporating it or through in-house developments.

That said, looking at the valuations surrounding some companies in the space, particularly the hype around LLMs, the executive anticipates a price adjustment. “In my opinion, we are on the verge of a correction,” he said, which could open a window of opportunity: “When capital becomes scarce again, that’s the time to invest again.”

“The Growth of Revenue Linked to AI Is Real and Quantifiable”

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyAnita Patel, Investment Director at Capital Group.

“High valuations are not automatically a sign of excess.” This is stated by Anita Patel, Investment Director at Capital Group, referring to the fact that they reflect the strength of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings. In addition, the expert holds cautiously optimistic forecasts on AI, pointing to the magnitude of investment linked to the wave of productivity that this technology will bring, which she considers structural.

With this idea as a guiding thread, Patel goes on to explain how to interpret the current market environment, the changes in the structure of the equity market, and the main risks for the remainder of the year.

Are U.S. equity valuations justified?

U.S. equities are trading at elevated levels, and valuations in some segments, especially in large companies exposed to AI, are demanding. The S&P 500 stands above its historical valuation averages, and the largest technology companies trade at around 34 times forward earnings, compared to approximately 22 times for the overall market.

That said, high valuations are not automatically a sign of excess. They reflect strong earnings growth, a resilient economy, and the volume of investment associated with the current productivity wave driven by AI. Revenue growth linked to this technology is real and quantifiable: semiconductor companies generated more than $400 billion in sales last year, the highest figure on record, while leaders such as NVIDIA more than doubled their year-over-year revenue amid the race among cloud providers to secure computing capacity.

Is AI in bubble territory?

The volume of capital deployed points to structural demand rather than speculative enthusiasm. Hyperscalers have invested more than $400 billion annually in chips and data centers, with Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet signaling increases in capex for 2026. Many companies also indicate that they will remain capacity-constrained well into 2026, demonstrating that demand for AI computing continues to exceed supply.

Although there are pockets of overheating, especially in private AI startups or early-stage infrastructure projects, the listed market has already begun to differentiate between profitable leaders and more speculative names. Since the end of 2025, several prominent AI stocks have moved sideways while the broader market advanced, suggesting normalization rather than a bubble.

Outside the technology sector, valuations are much more attractive, especially in utilities, healthcare, financials, and some industrial segments, where earnings growth has been solid and multiples are closer to their historical averages.

This dispersion reinforces the appeal of diversified and actively managed approaches such as the Capital Group Investment Company of America (LUX) (ICA) fund, aimed at building broad portfolios across different sectors of the economy. In fact, these areas have begun to outperform the market in recent months, as investors seek sources of return beyond large technology companies.

Regarding corporate earnings, do they show a healthy trend? Which areas are stronger or more vulnerable?

Corporate earnings show a healthy tone. The United States recorded its tenth consecutive quarter of growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an increase of 13% and a broad majority of companies beating expectations, reinforcing the strength of the corporate cycle.

This growth is widespread and not limited to large technology companies. Sectors such as financials, industrials, materials, real estate, healthcare, utilities, and consumer discretionary have delivered solid results, supported by firm demand, improvements in supply chains, and increased investment amid lower tariff uncertainty.

The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing a multi-year upcycle driven by global travel demand and a high order backlog. GE Aerospace, for example, has recorded strong growth in both orders and margins, supported by the normalization of bottlenecks and the weight of recurring aftermarket revenue.

The healthcare sector has also stood out: companies such as Eli Lilly advanced more than 40% in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the success of their drugs and promising pipelines.

Among the more vulnerable segments are some consumer discretionary companies exposed to rising tariff-related costs and pressure on lower-income households, as well as part of the software sector, where AI-based programming tools are putting pressure on traditional revenue models.

Overall, however, the resilience of earnings across sectors remains one of the key pillars supporting current valuations. For strategies such as ICA, based on bottom-up stock selection rather than concentration in a few growth names, this breadth of earnings opens multiple avenues for return generation.

Market breadth has been limited by the weight of the “Magnificent 7.” Has anything changed? Should we expect greater dispersion?

Market breadth has improved significantly in recent months. After several years in which a small group of large technology companies accounted for most of the returns, broader market participation is now evident.

Equal-weight indices such as the S&P 500 Equal Weight have outperformed the traditional S&P 500 since October 2025, and sectors such as healthcare, industrials, materials, and energy have led gains, while many AI-related stocks have taken a breather.

This shift is driven by two factors: more reasonable valuations outside the top decile of the market and stronger earnings growth across the broader corporate landscape.

A relevant data point is that only two of the “Magnificent Seven” were among the 100 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2025, marking a shift from previous years and showing that investors are rediscovering the broader universe of opportunities. In addition, more than 60% of index constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average, another indicator of improved breadth.

As spending on AI is analyzed more rigorously and investors focus on fundamentals and return on invested capital, dispersion is likely to increase both across sectors and within them, an environment traditionally favorable for active management.

What lesson should investors draw from the volatility of 2025? What risks do you anticipate for 2026?

The main lesson of 2025 is that volatility does not equal vulnerability. The year began with trade tensions and recession fears, but the U.S. economy proved resilient, inflation moderated, and equity markets rebounded strongly. The S&P 500 closed with a return of 18%, underscoring the importance of staying invested even during periods of high uncertainty.

Looking ahead to 2026, a more stable environment is expected, although geopolitical developments will remain a factor to monitor. Inflation is projected to approach 2.5%, interest rates are expected to trend downward, and consumption should continue to be supported by unusually large tax refunds, which could inject between $100 billion and $200 billion into households as early as the summer.

Corporate earnings continue to show strength, and real GDP growth of around 2.5% is expected, with upside potential if productivity gains from AI accelerate.

However, risks remain: potential changes in tariff policy, the capital intensity of AI infrastructure deployment, which could pressure margins if end demand slows, and the proximity of the U.S. midterm election cycle, historically associated with higher volatility. It is also important to monitor public debt dynamics, which exceed 120% of GDP, as well as rising financing costs.

Even so, the fundamentals of the U.S. market, high corporate profitability, deep capital markets, leadership in AI, and a resilient consumer, remain intact. For long-term investors, 2025 has reinforced the importance of diversification, downside resilience, and disciplined active management, which are core pillars of ICA’s investment approach across market cycles.

Boreal Transforms into Mora Capital Group After Growing 39% in Three Years

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyJoaquín Francés, CEO of Mora Capital Group Miami

Boreal Capital Management Miami begins a new phase and is renamed Mora Capital Group Miami, explicitly incorporating into its name the surname of the founding and owner family of the MoraBanc Group, while maintaining the independence and autonomy that have historically characterized the firm.

This brand change comes after recording growth of 39% in just three years and responds to the objective of strengthening its identity and highlighting a track record of more than 70 years in private banking. The entity preserves its boutique model, based on close, personalized service and a differentiated product offering.

The new name represents a natural evolution in the firm’s development and takes place at a time of strengthening for the MoraBanc Group, currently immersed in a phase of expansion in the markets in which it operates. Under this new brand, which does not imply changes in financial activity or in the relationship with clients, the entity strengthens its value proposition and brings together its three business areas in the United States: Mora Capital Management, Mora Capital Securities, and Mora Capital Lending.

Mora Capital Management encompasses advisory and wealth management activities, the core of the business in Miami. For its part, Mora Capital Securities acts as a broker-dealer specialized in intermediation services, execution, and access to markets and financial products. Finally, Mora Capital Lending constitutes the private financing platform designed to meet the liquidity needs of sophisticated investors.

Joaquín Francés, CEO of Mora Capital Group Miami, states that “this brand change is a natural evolution of our firm and marks the beginning of a new phase. It represents progress toward a model that allows the integration of more services thanks to synergies with the MoraBanc Group, while maintaining the essence that defines us. Our boutique positioning remains the differentiating axis: a close way of working, specialized and focused on delivering real value to each client.”

He also adds that this new phase strengthens the solidity and trust built over time and prepares the entity to face the future with a more comprehensive and coherent offering.