Multifonds and Ultumus Partner to Accelerate the Expansion of ETFs in Europe, Asia, and North America

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Multifonds, a global fund management software provider, and Ultumus, a SIX Group company specializing in ETF infrastructure technology, have announced a strategic alliance designed to enable management companies to expand rapidly in the growing ETF market. According to the companies, this collaboration provides Multifonds clients with direct access to Ultumus’ specialized ETF technology platform and its extensive global network of authorized participants and market makers, enabled through a preconfigured standard connector now available on the Multifonds platform.

With ETF assets growing at an unprecedented pace, the companies have identified that asset managers are increasingly seeking efficient ways to launch share classes in ETF format or convert existing mutual fund strategies into ETF vehicles. Therefore, they believe this alliance responds to that demand by combining Multifonds’ market-leading platform for fund administration and investor services, which currently supports more than $10 trillion in assets, across more than 40,000 funds and 35 jurisdictions, with Ultumus’ proven ETF operating infrastructure. “This alliance offers the market an integrated solution that removes the operational burden associated with launching and administering ETFs,” highlighted Oded Weiss, Chief Executive Officer of Multifonds.

Its comprehensive ETF infrastructure solution

According to the companies, the alliance also brings together complementary capabilities. On the one hand, Multifonds contributes its established fund accounting and investor servicing platform, used by 9 of the world’s 15 largest fund administrators; on the other, Ultumus provides specialized ETF infrastructure, including the COSMOS platform for creation and redemption processes, advanced PCF (Portfolio Composition File) calculation capabilities, and a well-established global network of relationships and distribution with authorized participants and market makers.

Together, the combined offering and connectivity enable end-to-end ETF operations, from fund accounting to trading and settlement, all on an integrated technology platform. The companies believe a key differentiating factor of the alliance is Ultumus’ strong network of relationships with European, Asian, and Canadian authorized participants and market makers, essential counterparties in the ETF ecosystem that enable efficient trading and liquidity provision. This network, they note, combined with Multifonds’ experience across more than 35 jurisdictions, provides asset managers and fund administrators with immediate access to the infrastructure needed to successfully launch and operate ETFs in global markets.

“The ETF market is evolving rapidly, and asset managers need partners who understand both the traditional fund administration business and the specific operational requirements of ETFs. Multifonds’ client relationships, combined with our specialized ETF technology and our market maker network, create a robust solution for firms looking to capture the ETF growth opportunity without having to build entirely new infrastructure,” said Bernie Thurston, Chief Executive Officer of Ultumus.

Driving industry transformation

Both firms maintain that this collaboration comes at a crucial moment for the asset management industry, particularly with the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle in Europe. According to them, recent regulatory changes allowing ETF share classes within mutual funds, together with investors’ strong preference for ETF structures due to their tax efficiency and lower costs, have accelerated demand for solutions that connect the mutual fund and ETF worlds.

“We are seeing a fundamental shift in how asset managers and fund administrators think about product structure. It is not just about launching new products, but about equipping existing fund ranges with the tools to evolve alongside market demand. Our collaboration with Ultumus delivers that capability at scale,” concludes Weiss.

Mariner Partners with State Street to Use Its Charles River Wealth Management Platform

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The Market Rides Between Macro Data, Geopolitics, and the Fed

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2026 is shaping up to be a year of balances. Global markets are riding this week between electoral risks, inflation data in the U.S., and geopolitical debates on security, while corporate earnings and signals from central banks add to a horizon filled with focal points.

In the opinion of Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, markets begin the week managing a dense combination of political events, macroeconomic data, and corporate earnings. Specifically, he believes that investors will be particularly attentive to the evolution of inflation in the U.S. and geopolitical developments: “Macroeconomic attention is focused on Friday’s U.S. CPI report, which will serve as a key indicator to assess whether inflation continues to moderate gradually. Markets remain sensitive to any upside surprise that could call into question expectations of continued monetary easing later this year.”

According to Gattiker, “these releases will help determine whether corporate fundamentals can continue sustaining market sentiment in a context of persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.”

“This week’s January U.S. employment situation report will be important in shaping investors’ views on the trajectory of the labor market in the world’s leading economic power after the data released last week came in weaker than expected. The general expectation is that nonfarm employment will grow by 70,000 jobs, compared to 50,000 in December, that the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4.4%, and that average hourly earnings growth will moderate slightly to 3.7% year-on-year. Markets will be closely watching the nonfarm payroll figures given the weak job creation since May,” acknowledges Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard.

For Hans-Jörg Naumer, Global Head of Capital Markets & Thematic Research at Allianz Global Investors, although global politics is increasingly defined by shifts in spheres of influence, financial markets are looking beyond the geopolitical risks that dominate headlines, such as the recent turmoil surrounding Iran and Greenland, and are focusing on macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, and the factors driving medium-term returns.

“After the strong results achieved in 2025, equity markets began the year with very positive momentum. Commodities also extended their gains, and gold and silver continued their upward trend for much of January, before greater turbulence emerged in the markets. In contrast, fixed income markets recorded more differentiated performance. European government bonds benefited from falling yields, while U.K. and U.S. sovereign bonds were under pressure,” adds Naumer.

Politics and Geopolitics

Certainly, the political backdrop remains at the forefront, marked by snap elections in Japan, along with general elections in Thailand, whose results could influence the direction of regional policy and investor sentiment in Asia. In the case of Japan, the landslide victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi provides her with a firm mandate to assert herself on legislative matters. “In early trading today, the yen appears unchanged from Friday’s close in New York. Investors’ focus will be on the magnitude of fiscal expansion. In particular, close attention will be paid to developments regarding the temporary reduction of the food tax promised during the election campaign,” notes Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Research Economist at Aberdeen Investments.

In addition, looking at the week’s agenda, geopolitics adds another dimension, as the Munich Security Conference is likely to intensify the debate on NATO’s strategic outlook and the war in Ukraine, underscoring the persistent uncertainty surrounding global security.

Central Banks: Focus on the Fed

One of the drivers moving the market has to do with central banks. According to MSCI experts, market confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve could prove decisive in 2026. “With inflation still above target and early signs of a weaker labor market, the pressure to ease policy risks clashing with the Fed’s mandate. Grand jury subpoenas issued to the Chair of the Federal Reserve have further added complexity to an already delicate monetary policy environment. When a central bank’s credibility is eroded, inflation can persist even as growth slows, leading to stagflation, a scenario in which bonds cease to diversify against equities,” they explain.

“Moreover, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, at its January monetary policy meeting, with Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut. Uncertainty surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve intensified at the beginning of the month following news that the Department of Justice subpoenaed the Fed and its Chair, Jerome Powell, in connection with the renovation of the Fed building. The situation has extended to the Senate, where Senator Thom Tillis, a senior member of the Banking Committee, has indicated his intention to block Fed confirmations until the investigation is resolved,” adds Marco Giordano, Investment Director at Wellington Management, regarding the noise surrounding the Fed that continues to hold investors’ attention.

Investment Opportunities

In this context, investment firms are also speaking about opportunities. For example, it is hard to ignore how Japanese equities rose sharply on Monday after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s coalition secured a historic supermajority, unlocking fresh momentum for the so-called “Takaichi trade.”

In this regard, the message is clear: with political stability and reform catalysts in play, investors should be alert to further upside potential, as well as short-term episodes of volatility in bonds and the yen.

“We maintain our attractive rating on Japanese equities and see room for further gains, especially in sectors that benefit from domestic policies (defense, banks, real estate, and IT services) and global themes (energy, data centers, automation, and some auto sector stocks). As for the Japanese dollar/yen, authorities have already signaled a high degree of urgency regarding currency movements, which should help contain pressures,” says Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

At Capital Group, the focus is on how emerging markets are becoming the engine of industrial transformation on a global scale, thanks to strong investment in electric vehicles (EVs), robotics, and manufacturing related to artificial intelligence, including semiconductors. “The region is expected to account for nearly 65% of global economic growth by 2035. However, the long-term competitive advantage of emerging markets depends not only on excellence in the hardware segment, but also on their ability to advance toward innovation in software and systems,” they argue at the asset manager.

Finally, François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management, revisits one of last week’s standout topics: gold. Precious metals have been in the spotlight in recent weeks due to the exceptional movements observed in prices: a 25% increase between the end of the year and January 28, followed by a decline of more than 13% in the case of gold. The situation is even worse for silver, which has lost a third of its value after having risen by more than 60%.

“From our point of view, the rebound in gold (and, to a lesser extent, silver) is driven by several factors, some more relevant than others. The key factor appears to be the continuation of expansionary fiscal policies since the Covid crisis and the war between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, current geopolitical instability acts as another supporting factor for gold prices and, once again, recent developments do not point, in our view, to a decline,” explains Rimeu.

His main conclusion is that the catalysts that have been present over the past three years remain in place and that the recent correction is ultimately healthy, as it helps to eliminate more speculative investments.

Back to the Weakness of the Dollar: These Are the Investor’s Options

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This week, the dollar extended its losses following disappointing U.S. retail sales data. In the view of experts from investment firms, the weakening of the dollar is likely to continue, especially in a context of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Tim Murray, Capital Markets Strategist in the Multi-Asset Division at T. Rowe Price, outlines four reasons why he believes the U.S. currency will likely continue to weaken after nearly 16 years of steady appreciation: “The recent decline reflects a combination of structural and cyclical factors, suggesting that the move may have further room to run rather than representing merely a short-term correction. First, fiscal concerns are increasingly putting pressure on the currency. Second, monetary policy expectations are becoming a clear headwind. Third, political dynamics are influencing foreign demand for dollar-denominated assets. And finally, global capital flows are acting as an additional source of pressure,” Murray notes.

However, from a valuation perspective, this expert believes the dollar remains elevated relative to its own history and against most major currencies. “Even after its recent weakness, it remains expensive by historical standards,” he adds.

The outlook of Axel Botte, Head of Market Strategy at Ostrum AM (an affiliate of Natixis IM), is similar: “The greenback will likely face structural headwinds in the coming years. The dollar’s carry against the euro will fall to around 100 basis points and will turn negative against the pound sterling and the Australian dollar this year.” For Botte, the dollar’s status as a safe-haven asset is being called into question and it may decline at the same time as U.S. equities and bonds.

“This is the phenomenon known as ‘sell America,’ which has shown that the dollar is no longer the ultimate safe-haven currency. U.S. exceptionalism will also be tested as the AI boom comes under greater scrutiny from investors. Dollar hedging flows could increase, and valuation metrics suggest that the greenback has room to adjust downward,” Botte adds.

Investor options

If this outlook materializes, the dollar’s rate advantage over other currencies would consequently erode. In addition, global investors’ efforts to diversify could add further downward pressure and open up tactical opportunities in higher-yielding currencies. “With dollar weakness likely to persist, investors should review their currency allocations and consider the benefits of diversification. For those with an affinity for gold, we consider an allocation of up to a mid-single-digit percentage within a diversified portfolio to be appropriate,” says Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

In Murray’s view, for investors considering ways to potentially hedge against a weaker dollar, increasing exposure to assets outside the U.S. may offer diversification benefits. “Emerging market and local currency bonds can benefit directly from dollar depreciation, while international equities provide both equity returns and potential currency gains. After years of dollar strength that led some investors to reduce their international exposure, a sustained period of weakness could encourage a reallocation toward global markets.”

Undoubtedly, however, the key task for managers and investors will be to continue monitoring the behavior of the dollar. The U.S. asset manager Muzinich & Co reminds that “in the macroeconomic sphere, the key indicator to watch will be the U.S. dollar, as a sovereign currency is often seen as a barometer of both the health of the economy and confidence in the administration that governs it.”

Nuveen to Acquire Schroders for $13.5 Billion

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Photo courtesyWilliam Huffman, CEO of Nuveen.

Fund manager Schroders has announced an agreement with Nuveen under which the U.S. firm will acquire the British company for £9.9 billion ($13.5 billion). The founding family would sell its shares, bringiqng an end to an era for the 222-year-old firm.

Schroders shareholders will receive 590 pence per share in cash, plus dividends of up to 22 pence, valuing the company at 612 pence per share. This represents a 34% premium to Wednesday’s market closing price.

Nuveen stated that the deal would create a leading platform for public and private assets with greater geographic reach across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The firm said it has received irrevocable commitments in support of the deal from Schroders’ largest shareholder group, which controls 41% of the shares through various family trusts.

The offer document states that the businesses of Nuveen and Schroders are highly complementary and that the transaction “represents an opportunity to combine their strengths in order to accelerate growth, better serve clients, and create one of the largest active asset managers globally.” The combined group will have nearly $2.5 trillion in assets under management, balanced evenly between institutional and wealth channels. According to the proposed timetable, the transaction is expected to become effective during the fourth quarter of 2026.

BNP Paribas served as financial adviser to Nuveen, while Wells Fargo and Barclays advised Schroders.

Elizabeth Corley, Chair of Schroders, commented that the Group resulting from the combination of Schroders and Nuveen “will bring together two successful companies with shared values and highly complementary strengths to create a new global leader in public and private investment management. Following Schroders’ tradition, London will remain the center of the new combined entity, and the transaction will provide an attractive cash premium to our shareholders, reflecting the value of our business and its future prospects. The Schroders Board is confident that this is the right step for our shareholders, clients, and employees.”

For his part, Richard Oldfield, Group CEO of Schroders, stated that “in a competitive environment where scale can help deliver benefits, we see in Nuveen a partner that shares our values, respects the culture we have built, and that we believe will create exciting opportunities for our clients and employees.” The executive added that the transaction “will significantly accelerate our growth plans to create a leading public-private platform with broader geographic reach and a strengthened balance sheet. Together, we can create an exceptional opportunity to provide clients with a broad range of high-quality investment solutions that meet their evolving needs.”

Likewise, William Huffman, CEO of Nuveen, stated that through this “exciting transformational step for our two distinguished firms, we look forward to welcoming Schroders to the Nuveen family. By bringing together our platforms, capabilities, distribution networks, and complementary cultures, we will create an extraordinary opportunity to enhance the way we serve our collective clients through access to new markets, a strengthened product offering, and a greater depth of investment talent.” He also said that the transaction “is intended to unlock new growth opportunities for institutional and wealth investors worldwide, equipping our leading and differentiated public-to-private platform with a broader global presence,” according to the transaction statement.

Schroders CEO Richard Oldfield will remain at the helm of the firm following the closing of the deal. London will serve as the headquarters of the combined group outside the United States. Nuveen and Schroders will assess opportunities for collaboration and effective integration during the 12 to 18 months following completion of the transaction. During that period, Schroders is expected to continue operating as an independent company.

Asset Managers’ Budgets to Obtain Alternative Data Continue to Grow

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Investment managers’ budgets for alternative data will continue to increase this year, consolidating the strong growth of the past two years, according to new research by Exabel and BattleFin, two platforms specializing in alternative data.

Around 85% of the investment managers and analysts surveyed in the global study state that their budgets will increase this year, and 33% foresee substantial growth, according to the report “Alternative Data Buy-side Insights & Trends 2025” by Exabel and BattleFin. This increase adds to the recent expansion of budgets. The study, which included fund managers in the U.S., the U.K., Hong Kong, and Singapore with a total of $820 billion in assets under management, revealed that 43% of respondents reported a budget increase of between 50% and 75%, while 36% indicated that their budgets grew between 25% and 50% during the period analyzed.

The report by Exabel, which was acquired by BattleFin in December of last year, identified that one of the key areas of budget growth is likely to be investment in third-party software systems for data analysis. Currently, 66% of the firms surveyed use third-party software as part of their solutions, compared with 51% that use internally developed systems and 51% that use systems provided by data vendors. However, the research also revealed that 59% of respondents still use basic tools and legacy systems, such as Excel and Tableau, to analyze alternative data.

This landscape appears to be changing: 85% of respondents predict that their use of third-party systems will increase over the next five years, and 15% expect a drastic increase in their adoption for data analysis. The main reason is their greater cost-effectiveness, mentioned by 87% of respondents. In addition, 62% believe that these systems offer a more consistent way of working with different types of data, while 52% consider them more effective than internal systems.

In fact, senior management at the firms surveyed supports the increase in budgets: 98% state that they are very or fairly committed to the use of alternative data for investment research. Likewise, 84% have a head of alternative data on their teams, while only 11% admit not having one.

When allocating budgets for the acquisition and management of alternative data, the survey revealed that approximately 62% of firms allocate between 25% and 50% of their resources to purchasing data, while 45% indicate that their firm allocates between 25% and 50% of the budget to technology and software. And 49% indicated that their firms allocate between 10% and 25% of the budget to hiring staff to analyze and manage alternative data.

In light of these results, Tim Harrington, CEO of BattleFin & Exabel, commented: “The demand for alternative data continues to grow globally, with investment managers increasing their budgets year after year both to acquire and to manage a growing variety of datasets. The main challenges include resource allocation, data standardization across different sources, and the use of third-party analytical tools. We are committed to harnessing the power of alternative data to deliver actionable insights and generate value. In today’s dynamic market environment, accessing high-quality data is crucial to gaining a competitive advantage and unlocking alpha.”

Below is a table showing how the firms surveyed distribute their budgets for the acquisition and management of alternative data.

Balanz USA Appoints Federico Francia as Head of Wealth Management

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Barings experts present investment opportunities
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Balanz USA has a new key position: Federico Francia is the new Head of Wealth Management for its Latin America-focused wealth division based in Miami.

“In this role, Mr. Francia will lead the firm’s wealth management strategy across the Latin American region, further strengthening Balanz USA’s commitment to offering personalized investment solutions to its clients,” the Argentine-headquartered firm told Funds Society.

Federico Francia steps into his new role this February 2026, after working for more than eleven years at Puente Servicios Financieros, where he held positions such as Senior Financial Advisor (also in Miami), Team Leader, and Financial Advisor Private Banking.

“With more than 11 years of experience, today it’s time to say goodbye to Puente, a firm that allowed me to learn, grow, and develop in the Wealth Management industry. Thank you to all the colleagues, clients, and friends who accompanied me on this journey, both in Uruguay and the United States. It has been a true pleasure to share this path with you,” Francia shared on LinkedIn.

The new Balanz hire also worked at SURA Uruguay and HSBC, always in the wealth management sector.

The professional holds an MBA from EADA Business School and FINRA Series 66 and 7 licenses.

The Funds Society Managers Guide for the US Offshore Market Is Now Available

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Funds Society launched the 10th edition of its Asset Manager’s Guide 2026 U.S. NRI (Non-Resident Investor), a reference tool for wealth management professionals in the offshore business. The guide offers an updated mapping of the non-resident asset management market in the United States, with a focus on UCITS investment solutions.

The publication brings together more than 115 international asset managers operating in the NRI segment through their UCITS offerings, including key contact information for private bankers, financial advisors, and other wealth management professionals.

In addition, the guide features exclusive content from 12 asset managers, outlining their value proposition and business strategy for the Americas region, providing deeper insight into their positioning and commercial approach.

To download the guide, click on this link.

Citi Predicts Up to $200 Trillion Annually in Digital Transactions

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In April 2025, the Citi GPS report: Digital Dollars anticipated that it would be the moment for institutional adoption of blockchain technology, with stablecoins acting as a decisive catalyst in this transformation. One year after this prediction, recent events and data confirm that this revolution is occurring at a rapid pace, driven primarily by digitally native companies, technological advancements, and an increase in transactional activity.

The volume of stablecoin issuance has experienced remarkable growth, rising from approximately $200 billion at the beginning of 2025 to nearly $280 billion today. This momentum has led the Citi Institute to revise its projections for total stablecoin issuance in 2030, adjusting the base case to $1.9 trillion, up from the initially forecasted $1.6 trillion, and the optimistic scenario to $4.0 trillion, compared to the previous $3.7 trillion. This growth reflects both the partial relocation of U.S. dollar cash, domestic and offshore, and the gradual replacement of short-term international liquidity with stablecoins denominated in dollars and other local currencies, in addition to a boom in crypto ecosystem adoption and increased cryptocurrency trading.

A New Financial Ecosystem: Coexistence and Evolution

The evolution of digital assets such as stablecoins and bank tokens is marking a shift. However, far from representing a threat to the traditional financial system, these innovations contribute to reimagining and strengthening it. The reality points toward integration and coexistence of models.

Although stablecoins offer a valuable financial tool, especially for digital companies, investors, and households in emerging markets seeking an efficient and secure option, they are not a universal solution for all markets. In many countries, national payment systems already provide fast, secure, and low-cost solutions. In contrast, cross-border payments continue to present challenges that both fintechs and large banks are addressing through advanced technologies.

For certain market segments, bank tokens offer a simpler alternative aligned with traditional infrastructures, and transaction volumes using these tokens are expected to surpass those of stablecoins by 2030. Rather than competition, this diversity of formats represents progress toward smarter, more agile, and programmable finance.

Market Projections and Transactional Activity

The Citi Institute estimates that stablecoins could support nearly $100 trillion in annual transactional activity in its base-case scenario for 2030. In the optimistic scenario, this figure could double to $200 trillion, placing stablecoins at the center of the global financial infrastructure of the future.

At the same time, bank tokens, which combine the trust, familiarity, and regulatory security of traditional bank money, are projected to reach similar or even higher volumes. These tokens could play a key role in the financial ecosystem, especially in corporate transactions where institutional trust and regulation are fundamental.

Programmability and Efficiency: The Key for Corporate Treasuries

One of the most valued features for large corporations is the programmability of digital money, which enables real-time settlements and reconciliations, with built-in regulatory compliance at the point of transaction and significant friction reduction. Both stablecoins and bank tokens are positioned to offer these capabilities, which will attract growing interest from corporate treasuries seeking to optimize cash management and improve operational efficiency.

Dollar Dominance and Geographic Expansion

U.S. dollar denomination will continue to predominate in on-chain money volumes, generating incremental demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Nevertheless, the relevant activity is not limited to the United States. Innovative financial centers such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and other emerging jurisdictions are undergoing rapid development in blockchain technology adoption, reflecting a diversified and global geographic expansion.

Context and Comparison With Traditional Flows

While the projected annual turnover figures for stablecoins and bank tokens, $100 trillion and over $100 trillion, respectively, may seem astronomical to the general public, in context they remain smaller compared to the daily flows handled by major banks, which range between $5 trillion and $10 trillion. This highlights the enormous growth potential of on-chain digital money, which still represents a fraction of total global payment volumes.

AI in 2026: Major Investments, Real Growth, and Healthy Corrections

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The recent correction in the tech sector reflects more of an adjustment than a structural break in the AI investment cycle. In this sense, investment firms have no doubt: artificial intelligence will continue to be one of the most important drivers of technology and the economy this year. According to Nicolas Bickel of Edmond de Rothschild, major cloud companies and OpenAI are making historic investments in AI infrastructure, more than $1.6 trillion between 2025 and 2028. “These investments are already yielding results: AI is improving cloud services, e-commerce, and digital advertising, and many software companies that have adapted to AI are seeing growing interest in their products,” he notes.

However, as AI becomes more tangible, market corrections have also arrived. Although the S&P 500 had only dropped 3% from its highs as of Thursday’s close, the situation feels much worse. “That 3% loss is a combination of much steeper declines this year in areas that had attracted most assets, such as bitcoin (-49%), software giants (-25%), and the Magnificent 7 (-6%). Meanwhile, the shares of the other 493 companies have risen between 1% and 6% since the market lows in November, which is even more reassuring. We consider the current tech correction to be healthy, though not yet complete,” explains the Federated Hermes equities team.

A Healthy Correction

Although some experts compare the current situation to the year 2000, many argue that today’s conditions are significantly different: listed companies driving the current capex boom often have strong cash flows and the financial flexibility to invest, even if some of that spending ends up being misallocated. One such voice is Fabiana Fedeli, CIO of Equities, Multi-Asset and Sustainability at M&G Investments, who acknowledges that concerns about increased capex and software companies overpromising on AI-driven revenue are valid, but believes we are not at a turning point. In her view, this is more of a reset, as markets reassess their expectations.

“The speed of market movements has increased, amplifying volatility and contributing to the magnitude of the recent purge. These adjustments are now broader and faster than in previous cycles, and investors will need to sharpen their ability to distinguish noise from truly meaningful signals,” she adds.

For Fedeli, this is not the end of the AI bet, but rather an expansion of the opportunity set beyond the narrow group of large U.S. tech companies that have captured investor attention. “The race for AI is global, and while we still believe that some of the ‘enablers’ of AI, the hardware makers building the supporting infrastructure, still hold potential, we increasingly see opportunities among AI beneficiaries: companies across sectors like consumer, media, financials, materials, and industrials that are deploying AI to reduce costs, increase revenues, and optimize customer acquisition. Moreover, AI investment is global, and we must look beyond the U.S. market. That said, the current relative weakness of U.S. tech will offer active investors new opportunities, as broad-based innovation continues to show structural strength. This is a recalibration, not a trend reversal, and the main beneficiaries of the AI investment boom may not be the capex spenders, but those best positioned to leverage it,” says the M&G expert.

Meanwhile, Federated Hermes analysts expect the market shift toward smaller-cap and value stocks to likely continue for some time. One reason supporting this “healthy correction” view relates to the evolution of AI itself. For example, they explain that hyperscalers are beginning to move away from the “asset-light” model that once made them so attractive: high incremental margins, modest capital intensity, and extraordinary free cash flow generation. That landscape is changing quickly.

“In addition, the software sector faces a mix of serious issues that are underappreciated. First, many companies are still absorbing excess licenses sold during the remote work surge of the pandemic. Renewal cycles remain focused on optimization and downsizing, not expansion. Second, AI is threatening the traditional license-based model. And also, the market is broadening as companies outside the tech realm, which had previously led the market, are now improving,” they add.

Finally, Thomas Hempell of Generali AM acknowledges that the market can be volatile due to the concentration of investments in tech companies and their high valuations. But unlike the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, today’s growth is supported by real earnings. AI has enormous potential to transform businesses and boost productivity, even in an economic environment that remains favorable.

Outlook for This Year

These recent adjustments do not undermine the case for investing in AI. According to Paddy Flood of Schroders, the benefits of AI are not always immediately visible. Many companies are using it to make their services more efficient, from virtual assistants to personalized recommendations, without users paying for it directly. “Even if it’s not always seen, AI is already generating economic value throughout the tech chain,” says Flood.

Joe Davis, of Vanguard, notes that AI investment is still in its early stages, much like the early days of the internet or electricity. The next phase will depend on so-called “AI scalers”, companies with the resources to ramp up computing power, data storage, and large-scale AI models. These investments will drive not only technology itself but also related sectors such as semiconductors, data centers, and energy. This marks the beginning of a long-term transformation in the economy.

According to Johnathan Owen, portfolio manager at TwentyFour AM, after a year of AI hype, markets are starting to show discipline. The massive issuance of AI-linked bonds, which could reach between $1 and $3 trillion in the coming years, raises concerns about whether investors can absorb so much supply in such a short period. While demand remains strong, the timing and volume of these issuances could slow price growth and increase credit risks. Owen recommends focusing on essential assets like data centers and infrastructure, carefully evaluating debt levels and risks, as returns may take time to materialize.

Lastly, Mark Munro and Anthony Merola of Aberdeen point out that tech giants are increasingly turning to public bond markets to finance AI expansion, moving away from relying solely on cash flow or private capital. In just the past three months, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle have issued billions of dollars in bonds. They compare the current pace of investment to the internet boom of the 1990s. According to them, the need for funding will continue to grow, driven by costly data centers and rising energy demand. For investors, this means tactical opportunities in short-term, high-quality bonds, while long-term funds will need flexibility to take advantage of major upcoming issuances.