A Less Restrictive Fed: Ahead of a New Rate Cut and the End of QT

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The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) faces its monetary policy meeting with the latest headline CPI data for September still resonating, highlighting a further slowdown in underlying price pressures. The index rose 0.3% month-on-month—compared to the previous 0.4%—while core inflation slowed to 0.2%—down from the previous 0.3%.

The report revealed that core CPI inflation increased by 0.2% in September, aligning with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Specifically, while tariffs pushed up goods prices, core services and housing prices continue to moderate. Owners’ equivalent rent—the most significant and sticky component of core CPI inflation—recorded its lowest monthly reading since January 2021. The moderation in core inflation, along with continued labor market weakness, supports the possibility of another rate cut by the Fed at this week’s FOMC meeting,” explains Payden & Rygel.

Looking ahead to 2026, in their view, as tariff-related price pressures fade over the next 12 months and service inflation continues to cool, we can anticipate a scenario in which core CPI inflation reaches the Fed’s 2% target by late summer 2026. And, as the Fed governor noted in his latest speech, inflation on track toward 2% will not pose “an obstacle to a more neutral monetary policy.”

“The Fed officials will not be going into the October FOMC meeting completely blind, though they will be navigating through an uncomfortable haze. Since the federal government shutdown began earlier this month, there has been a scarcity of U.S. macroeconomic data releases, particularly regarding the labor market, and we don’t yet know when this data drought will end. At least, the Fed received the September CPI data on Friday, for which a slight uptick is expected,” notes the latest report by Ebury, the global fintech specialized in international payments and currency exchange.

According to the experts, the Fed could rely on this data to restart the cycle of rate cuts. If this happens, it would be the second consecutive cut and would confirm that the Fed is now more concerned about the labor market slowdown than about potential inflation spikes.

A New Cut

Experts agree that the communication received from the Fed ahead of the October FOMC meeting suggests that the lack of available data will not prevent central banks from cutting rates by another 25 basis points. “Which seems odd, considering we are flying blind due to the absence of new official data caused by the government shutdown. However, it is reasonable to assume that labor market conditions have not changed significantly since last month,” says Christian Scherrmann, chief U.S. economist at DWS.

He adds that renewed concerns about the health of the financial system, stemming from weaknesses in certain credit sectors, could provide final support for a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. “So far, so good, and markets appear well-positioned in terms of expectations for the upcoming meeting. However, beyond the October meeting, it would be unwise to become complacent. While another cut in December is consistent with the current dot plot, the median of Fed members only marginally supports this outcome. Not everyone favors rapid cuts, and some have voiced concerns about potential inflationary pressures,” Scherrmann argues.

“Historically, precautionary cuts have rarely been one-off measures. A new round of easing would not only mirror last year’s sequence of three consecutive cuts—totaling 100 bps between September and December—but also align with previous ‘insurance cycles.’ In three out of four cases since 1980, the Fed cut rates again within 90 days of the first reduction. Given the limited visibility in the current economic, political, and trade environment, as well as the ‘curious balance’ observed in the labor market—where both labor supply and demand have significantly moderated over the year—monetary policy decisions remain highly data-dependent. Although it would take considerable positive surprises in growth and inflation to avoid a new cut, upcoming price and employment data (with the September jobs report still unpublished due to the shutdown) could decisively influence the FOMC’s decision,” says Michael Krautzberger, global CIO for fixed income at Allianz Global Investors.

In the opinion of Guy Stear, head of developed market strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute, the Fed is expected to cut rates not only in October but also in December and two more times in the second quarter of 2026. “The market expects this as well, and the more interesting question is whether the Fed’s press conference will support the very aggressive cuts already priced into the curve through early 2027. Equally important will be understanding how the Fed plans to address shrinking liquidity at the short end, given the large volume of Treasury issuance in recent months. We could see a slight increase in two-year yields in the U.S. if the Fed disappoints the market’s aggressive expectations for rate cuts, but yields could also be supported if the Fed starts increasing system liquidity,” Stear explains.

What We Know

Experts have been trying to find clues about the Fed’s upcoming narrative from Chair Powell’s speech on monetary policy outlook at the National Association for Business Economics last Tuesday in Philadelphia. Specifically, Powell confirmed to markets that the October rate cut, which the Fed had already hinted at in its previous meeting, remains on the table. In the same speech, he expressed concern over lower hiring levels, which could pose a real risk to the U.S. economy. He also explicitly stated that, based on the available data, the labor market outlook had not changed since the September meeting, when the Fed’s dot plot outlined two additional cuts for 2025.

“Powell focused on the Fed’s balance sheet and stated that the reduction could be concluded in the coming months. The speech did not introduce any new elements, and the Fed appears on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on October 28 and 29. The odds of easing at each of the next two meetings have risen above 100%, so the momentum for a 50-basis-point easing cycle is starting, though it remains unlikely in our view,” says Karen Manna, fixed income client portfolio manager at Federated Hermes.

This month’s meeting will not include updated macroeconomic projections or a new dot plot. Therefore, in Ebury’s opinion, markets will scrutinize the tone of the bank’s statement and Powell’s press conference. “Given the absence of new economic releases, we believe the bank’s statement will be practically the same as in September. The Fed will likely once again highlight downside risks to employment, possibly noting that they have increased, and that the federal shutdown has made the decision-making process more difficult. However, the upside risks to inflation remain a headache for the Fed and should warrant a cautious response, despite the belief that the inflationary impact of tariffs will be transitory,” the fintech argues in its report.

More Accommodative Liquidity Conditions?
Cristina Gavín Moreno, head of fixed income at Ibercaja Gestión, agrees with this view and adds what she sees as the most relevant aspect of the meeting: “The end of the quantitative tightening (QT) process and the optimal size of the Fed’s balance sheet are additional points of discussion that are on the table, and this meeting could shed more light on them.”

Florian Späete, senior bond strategist at Generali AM, part of Generali Investments, notes that although the language is vague, Powell’s remarks suggest that quantitative tightening (QT) could end as early as this year. “This measure had previously been expected in the first quarter of 2026. It would represent a shift toward more accommodative liquidity conditions, easing pressure on funding markets. Improved liquidity and downward pressure on the term premium would offset the increasingly pronounced steepening trend in yield curves. However, overall, we assume that global yield curves still have room to steepen, given the higher inflation environment and rising public debt levels,” he states.

According to his analysis, since QT was already expected to end in early 2026, the impact on risk assets and the U.S. dollar is likely to be limited. “The easing of financial conditions, further interest rate cuts by the Fed, and relatively modest investor positioning are also favorable factors. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which we had already anticipated, should also be supported by the end of QT. The possible end of QT by the Fed is consistent with the idea of a less restrictive monetary policy in the United States,” he concludes.

Danilo Narbona, New Market Head for Central America and the Andean Region at Insigneo

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Insigneo Financial Group announced the appointment of Danilo Narbona as market head for the Andean region and Central America. He will report to Michael Averett, chief revenue officer of the U.S.-based wealth management firm.

Narbona will play a key role in strengthening the company’s presence and consolidating its positioning in the markets of Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela, and Central America, according to a statement from Insigneo.

“We are very pleased to welcome Danilo to this important role,” said Michael Averett. “He has a broad track record of driving growth in the financial industry. We are confident that Insigneo will continue to strengthen its position in these markets under his leadership.”

Narbona brings over 30 years of experience in the financial sector, where he has led multinational commercial organizations, empowering investment professionals to deliver a superior experience to their clients, the firm added.

Previously, the professional served as executive director at VectorGlobal Wealth Management Group, where he led the company’s international wealth management business across Latin America for more than a decade. Prior to that, he spent eight years at Citi, where he held the position of senior vice president and was responsible for the affluent & high net worth segment. Early in his career, he led the affluent clients division at Banco de Chile.

“Joining Insigneo represents a great opportunity,” said Danilo Narbona. “We aspire to be the leading wealth management firm in the Andean region and Central America, and I am convinced that the combination of my experience in these markets and Insigneo’s strong capabilities will allow us to achieve that goal,” added the business engineer from the University of Santiago, Chile.

“Many of the Fundamentals of American Exceptionalism Remain Intact”

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John Lamb, Equity Investment Director at Capital Group, analyzed the effects of Trump’s policies, the role of Europe, and highlighted attractive opportunities in the healthcare sector. He affirmed that there is a shift in the global balance, anticipated “some additional weakness” in the U.S. economy, and noted that the “inflationary rebound resulting from tariffs” has yet to materialize. However, the United States remains “resilient” thanks to strong investment in technology and data centers, and its exceptionalism continues to hold beyond the short term.

He also commented that by 2026, the ECB may need to consider raising rates “two or three times,” and that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year in a context of U.S. dollar weakness. Regarding emerging markets, he noted that China faces the challenge of structurally lower growth, while Indian companies appear overvalued.

This was shared during an in-person meeting with Funds Society, during a stop on the roadshow the specialist conducted in Miami to present Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy, the global equity strategy the firm has been managing for over 50 years, investing flexibly in quality multinational companies driving global change.

Trump’s Impact and U.S. Economic Resilience

While acknowledging certain challenges stemming from the Trump administration’s policies, Lamb stated that the so-called “American exceptionalism” has not come to an end. “We take a balanced stance. We’re not fully on one side or the other. There are arguments both for and against,” he said.

Lamb expanded on Trump’s tariff policies, which in his view have created short-term difficulties for the U.S. economy. Still, he emphasized the resilience of U.S. companies and the economy as a whole, which have adapted to the trade tension environment.

According to Lamb, the full impact of the tariffs has yet to show up in the data. “We believe we haven’t yet seen the entire effect on the U.S. economy. Our short-term growth and inflation forecasts are less optimistic than the consensus,” he stated.

In that regard, he anticipated “some additional weakness” and warned that the inflation rebound linked to tariffs “has not yet materialized.” However, beyond the short term, Lamb argued that many of the fundamentals of American exceptionalism remain in place, driven by a combination of factors: “deep and liquid capital markets, a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and the rule of law… Many of those components remain intact,” he stated.

He also noted that growth has been supported by robust investment in tech infrastructure, particularly in data centers. While there may be risks of overenthusiasm in that segment, Lamb does not foresee a recession.

Diverging Monetary Policy

In this global context, Lamb said that Europe has performed better than expected. He considers it reasonable for the market to be pricing in three to four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but expects the European Central Bank to face the opposite challenge.

“The shift in Europe’s fiscal regime, with strong public spending—especially in Germany—could boost growth while also generating inflationary pressures,” he explained. In his view, the eurozone could potentially see two to three rate hikes.

Lamb also projected that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year amid U.S. dollar weakness. However, he added that “in the long term, the U.S. will likely benefit from a productivity boost driven by investment in artificial intelligence.”

Healthcare: Targeted Opportunities

Speaking about equities, Lamb pointed to the healthcare sector, where he sees attractive opportunities.

“It’s been a challenging time for the sector,” he admitted, citing negative factors tied to U.S. government policies on drug pricing and reimbursement, as well as tariffs. “But valuations are now near historic lows in relative terms.”

The expert believes political risks have diminished and that the sector combines “attractive valuations with an exciting innovation pipeline.” He cited specific examples such as Eli Lilly, which is about to present clinical trial results for a new oral version of its weight-loss drugs—a development that could “significantly open up the market and expand its reach.”

Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy does not make “large macro bets by region,” he explained. “We focus on finding the right companies, regardless of where they are domiciled,” he concluded.

Which Distribution Channel Wins and Loses in the Alternatives Boom?

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The Alts Leaders Survey 2025, conducted by Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, breaks down how the growth and adoption of alternative investments in private markets is taking place across different distribution channels. Overall, the study’s findings point to a market still in the early stages of integration. While adoption of these types of investments is expanding, the report’s data highlights significant segmentation by channel, making average figures less meaningful without added context.

The study gathers insights from senior executives in the distribution sector representing more than 65.9% of all private investment flows into alternative assets. The results show that although private alternatives are gaining traction, investment penetration remains uneven across the various distribution channels.

Key findings include:

1. Wirehouses Lead:
23% of clients invest in private market alternative assets, with an average portfolio allocation of 16%. This accounts for 3.75% of total client assets—nearly three times the share held by independent broker-dealers and five times that of the RIA community overall. Their institutional infrastructure, the expertise of their CIOs and analysts, along with the support of both technological and human capital infrastructure, are decisive advantages driving private investment adoption among clients.

2. Independent Broker-Dealers Lag Behind but Make Meaningful Allocations:
Adoption stands at 9%; however, participating clients have a 13% exposure, equating to over 1% of total assets. Structural barriers, lower client wealth, and suitability restrictions limit broader growth, the study notes. Some respondents indicated that historical underperformance of legacy real estate funds has dampened enthusiasm in this channel.

3. RIAs Tell Two Stories:
Committed RIAs show private market alternative adoption above 29%, with client allocations averaging 11%, representing 3.35% of implied client assets. However, Broad RIAs reflect only 0.78% in implied assets, signaling that many firms in this segment have yet to engage in alternative investments. Barriers include indexing preferences, operational limitations, and fee sensitivity.

4. Early-Stage Market Dynamics:
Interviews confirm that firms with dedicated resources expand adoption more effectively, while others remain cautious due to illiquidity, operational sensitivities, and fees.

Based on these figures, the study highlights several observations and implications:

  1. Wirehouses are leaders in alternatives across distribution channels for multiple reasons: the combination of adoption and allocation generates the greatest impact on client portfolios, supported by CIOs’ analytical activity and advisor reinforcement.

  2. Independent Broker-Dealers remain constrained by suitability: structural barriers persist, limiting both access and the scope of product approval.

  3. RIAs include a subset of firms deeply committed to private market alternative investments, but the majority remain uninvolved, which weighs down capital-weighted averages, according to the study.

The report also notes that the wide dispersion across each channel in terms of private market alternative investment reflects a market still in its early stages: the large variation among firms reveals disparities in infrastructure and operational readiness.

The growing availability of evergreen funds with lower minimum investment thresholds and permanent access is expected to gradually increase penetration rates of alternative investments among clients.

During interviews, many respondents expressed a desire to “catch up” with firms that offer strong and sophisticated solutions for their clients.

China’s Advantage in Trump’s Tariff Game

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Since last Friday, Malaysia’s capital (Kuala Lumpur) has been the setting for the fifth round of trade negotiations between China and the U.S., following a staged escalation in tensions last week. According to experts, these meetings have aimed to ease the atmosphere ahead of the face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, which will take place in three days.

At DWS, they emphasize that the Asian giant is better prepared to face the trade and tariff challenges posed by the U.S. Firstly, as explained in the latest report by its CIO, the situation is not new. “China was already a key focus of U.S. foreign policy under President Biden. Moreover, although China remains one of the main targets of the United States’ tariff policy, its impact was diluted in April, when Washington imposed punitive tariffs on multiple countries worldwide. China also responded quickly to Trump’s return, adopting economic policy measures aimed at stability. And finally, the share of Chinese exports destined for the U.S. has halved over the past eight years, now standing at around 10%. Ultimately, China’s economy today is much less dependent on international trade than is commonly assumed: in 2024, exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP, compared to 36% in the case of the European Union,” they point out.

Just last week, China announced its new five-year plan, which largely signals a continuation of recent policy priorities—under the umbrella of “high-quality development”—placing increased emphasis on accelerating technological self-sufficiency and scientific capabilities. In the opinion of Robert Gilhooly, senior economist specializing in emerging markets at Aberdeen Investments, this will be seen as a continuation of the effort to improve and expand domestic manufacturing capabilities, as outlined in the ‘Made in China 2025’ plan, though it is unlikely the name will be renewed, as it has irritated key trade partners.

“Recently, policy has attempted to boost consumption, but geopolitical pressure is likely to keep priorities tilted toward the supply side of the economy, which will make it harder to eliminate deflationary pressures—even if authorities focus on sectors with well-known overcapacity issues, such as automobile manufacturing, solar energy, and batteries,” Gilhooly notes.

The Secret of Tariffs


In addition to China’s stronger position at the negotiating table, Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum AM (a firm affiliated with Natixis IM), argues that, at its core, the U.S. tech sector cannot fully decouple from the Asian country. “Trump’s response, with tariffs on China 100% higher than those already in place, is a reaction born of helplessness, as the United States cannot do without many Chinese products. Chinese advances are harming the U.S. tech and defense industries. What’s new is the shortage this could cause on the other side of the Atlantic. It is no longer a matter of prices, but of a break in the value chain. It’s not comparable, and the consequences for U.S. industry could be far greater than the mere application of customs duties,” Waechter states.

As the Ostrum AM expert recalls, “The U.S. economy is strong, but artificial intelligence plays a major role: it explains 92% of growth in the first half of the year. Without it, GDP would have grown just 0.1%. The U.S. economy is likely not as robust as it appears.”

For Sandy Pei, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, despite the renewed escalation of the trade war, the risks facing China’s economy are well understood and already priced in. “We expect supportive policies to stimulate the economy, particularly for high-tech industries, especially in areas where China currently lags behind global leaders. However, financial support is likely to taper off quickly, as the government prefers a market-driven approach: only the most competitive companies will come out ahead,” she argues.

Chinese Equities


For now, no other country is subject to as intense a burden of tariffs and sanctions from the United States as China. However, the Asian giant also appears to be the best-prepared country for a second Trump term, and DWS believes Chinese equity markets may be benefiting from this. “Sometimes, equity markets can be ironic. Chinese stocks began to rebound roughly at the time Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025,” notes the latest report from its CIO.

The document points out that the factors driving the Chinese stock market are primarily internal rather than external. And, prior to the rebound seen this year, they were far from favorable. “Since 2021, the Chinese market has lagged behind the U.S. and Europe. The problems are well known and, in part, remain unresolved: an oversaturated real estate market, an aging population, high levels of local government debt, power concentrated in the party, weak consumer confidence and high savings rates, inconsistent data quality, and overcapacity in numerous sectors. The government’s ‘anti-involution’ strategy aims to address some of these issues,” it notes.

From the asset manager’s perspective, after adjusting its economic policy, the MSCI China index has gained nearly 40% so far this year, and they consider valuations to have returned to the average of the past fifteen years. “The deterioration of confidence in other regions is boosting China’s position, where the likelihood of a gradual recovery is increasing. Even if a broad-based recovery does not occur, opportunities in the technology sectors could continue to offer solid upside potential, despite the recent valuation reassessment,” says Sebastian Kahlfeld, head of emerging markets equities at DWS.

Miami: Angelita Fuentes Joins Voya as Associate Regional Director

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Angelita Fuentes joins Voya Investment Management in Miami as associate regional director – US offshore, according to a post on her LinkedIn profile.

“I am pleased to announce that I am starting a new position as associate regional director – US offshore sales at Voya Investment Management,” she said in the post.

According to what the professional shared on LinkedIn, she will join the team led by Alberto D’Avenia, managing director – head of US offshore; along with Vince León, senior VP & senior regional director – US offshore; Samantha Muratori, US offshore wholesaler – NY & TX; and Joseph Arrieta, assistant vice president – US offshore.

Angelita Fuentes comes from SMVNF Investments, where she held the position of finance manager, after working at IPG Investment Advisors as VP wealth management. Previously, she built her career at SunTrust, holding various roles.

Academically, she is a graduate of Florida International University, where she earned a degree in international relations and affairs and also completed a master’s in finance at the same institution. She holds FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 licenses, among other academic certifications.

UBS International Adds Alejandro Lara in New York

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Generation Z Millennials 401k vs Social Security
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UBS International announced the addition of Alejandro Lara as part of the New York International Market in the role of First Vice President – Wealth Management.

“With experience in wealth planning, structured finance, and capital markets, Alejandro brings valuable expertise to help you achieve your most important goals and aspirations for your family, your career, your business, and your legacy,” the bank stated in a welcome announcement.

“As part of a leading global wealth management firm, Alejandro will offer well-thought-out strategies and solutions for every aspect of your financial life,” it added.

Michael Sarlanis, Managing Director & Market Executive, New York International at UBS, also joined the welcome announcement from his LinkedIn profile, where he invited his contacts to join him, Fabián Ochsner, Market Director, New York International, Wealth Management Americas, and “the entire leadership team of New York International, in welcoming Alejandro to UBS.”

According to his LinkedIn profile, Lara worked for nearly twelve years at Morgan Stanley in New York as an International Client Advisor, and later held a brief tenure at Oppenheimer as Senior Director Investments. He holds a law degree from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México and a Master of Law in Banking, Corporate, Finance, and Securities Law from Fordham University School of Law.

Pictet AM Launches Its First ETFs in the U.S.

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Pictet Asset Management, part of the Geneva-based independent group managing over $800 billion in assets, announced the launch of its first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in the United States, designed to bring its artificial intelligence-driven quantitative and thematic strategies to U.S. financial advisors and investors, the firm stated in a press release. The listed funds are the Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT), the Pictet Cleaner Planet ETF (PCLN), and the Pictet AI & Automation ETF (PBOT).

“These strategies reflect our long-term approach, with investments in emerging technologies and global megatrends,” said Elizabeth Dillon, CEO of Pictet Asset Management (U.S.).

PQNT offers diversified exposure to international equities using a transparent, factor-neutral AI model designed to consistently generate stock-specific alpha, while maintaining low correlation with traditional quantitative strategies.

“PQNT brings our AI-powered international equity strategy — previously available only to institutional clients — to U.S. advisors for the first time,” explained David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management. “The strategy aims to deliver consistent active returns without relying on the ‘black box’ approach typical of many quantitative strategies,” he added.

PCLN invests in companies whose innovation accelerates the transition toward a cleaner future, from efficient supply chains to smart grids.

“Our decades-long experience in thematic investing has taught us that the most compelling opportunities arise when powerful megatrends — such as urbanization, artificial intelligence, resource scarcity, and climate change — converge to redefine how societies produce, consume, and connect,” stated Yi Shi, Client Portfolio Manager of PCLN. This ETF “leverages a platform of more than 70 thematic investment specialists and three decades of institutional research to identify companies well positioned to benefit from long-term structural growth, accelerating the global transition toward a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable future,” he concluded.

For its part, PBOT provides exposure to companies benefiting from the adoption of AI and automation, focusing on long-term efficiency and productivity growth.

“As long-term thematic investors, we can invest across the entire value chain of artificial intelligence and position our portfolios to capture the main beneficiaries as they emerge,” said Anjali Bastianpillai, Senior Client Portfolio Manager of PBOT. The ETF “offers investors long-term exposure to AI and automation through rigorous fundamental analysis aimed at capturing long-term benefits, rather than short-term momentum,” she explained.

Dillon noted that “these strategies reflect our 220-year commitment to independent thinking and pioneering investments based on solid research. They are designed as enduring pillars for portfolio construction, expressing our forward-looking view on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, alongside our deep expertise in global megatrends.”

The launch of these ETFs allows Pictet to extend its client-centric approach into a rapidly growing segment, offering strategies grounded in rigorous research and independent thinking that have supported the group’s success for over two centuries.

Not All Is Smooth Sailing: Gold Correction and Isolated Credit Defaults in the U.S.

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Complacency has been one of the most repeated words by investment managers and experts to describe the market in recent months. While stock markets—especially the S&P 500—remain at record highs, experts are now placing less emphasis on the idea that markets are in a “complacent” state, given two sharp movements that occurred over the past week.

Instead, the two words that seem to remain valid in describing the current market are resilience and volatility. “The global outlook reflects a confluence of factors that are keeping markets in a state of fragile stability. In the U.S., corporate strength contrasts with political and trade uncertainty, while in Europe, regulatory pressure and energy dependency remain latent risks. Asia shows resilience thanks to expectations of stimulus and trade agreements, although Japan faces the challenge of balancing monetary and fiscal policy in a high-tariff environment,” says Felipe Mendoza, market analyst at ATFX LATAM.

Gold Adjustment

The headline this week was the sharp 5% correction in gold, after reaching October highs near $4,400 per ounce. According to experts, the strength of the dollar this week put pressure on precious metals, triggering one of the most pronounced drops in years for both gold and silver, as investors looked to lock in profits following a bullish streak.

“From a technical perspective, gold broke through key intraday support levels, which accelerated algorithmic selling and deepened the decline. However, the underlying context remains solid. Central banks continue to buy at a steady pace, and physical demand in Asia remains strong, particularly in China and India. These factors continue to serve as structural buffers against short-term speculative moves,” adds ATFX LATAM.

According to Claudio Wewel, FX strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the recent correction is due to broad-based profit-taking driven by a combination of factors. “Although the coming days will likely be marked by volatility, we believe the fundamentals supporting a renewed increase in gold prices remain strong in the medium and long term. Geopolitical uncertainty remains very high, and gold is still underweighted in portfolios. Therefore, we expect investors who had previously stayed away from the metal to continue turning to it and increasing their positions. Finally, the growing interest from stablecoin issuers and an uptick in outflows from crypto assets represent additional upward drivers for gold,” says Wewel.

Simon Jäger, portfolio manager on the multi-asset team at Flossbach von Storch, adds another factor to explain the situation: “Due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the central banks of China and Russia in particular have massively increased their gold reserves in recent years. We believe this trend will likely continue. As a result, this year gold has replaced the U.S. dollar (or U.S. Treasury bonds) as the largest investment within central banks’ foreign exchange reserves globally.”

Credit Stumble

The other key topic was U.S. credit. It began last week when regional U.S. banks came under pressure after several lenders reported loan write-downs linked to a bankrupt real estate investment trust (REIT).

As Axel Botte, Head of Market Strategy at Ostrum AM (a Natixis IM affiliate), explains, Tricolor (a subprime auto lender) and First Brands (a leveraged auto parts company) have become the first casualties of accumulated delays in auto loan payments and the sharp increase in tariffs on auto parts.

“Two regional banks are now reporting they were victims of fraud related to loans to credit funds with unfavorable exposure to commercial mortgage-backed securities. The opacity of private credit funds has long been recognized as a risk factor. It’s difficult to assess the systemic risks tied to their activities, but once you spot one cockroach, there are likely more hidden. While the credit minefield may remain contained, reports from the main regional banks are not raising alarms for now; however, credit quality will remain a focal point. The Fed’s announcement to pause balance sheet reduction suggests Jerome Powell is particularly attentive to liquidity conditions,” he argues.

“A senior executive from a major U.S. bank warned that spotting ‘a cockroach’ usually signals there are more, reflecting concern that isolated defaults could foreshadow a broader wave of bankruptcies. To make matters worse, wholesale funding rates have climbed above normal levels, which historically signals a shortage of reserves in the banking system,” adds Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director and Head of the Market Intelligence Group at MFS Investment Management.

Anne calls for calm, explaining that her team at MFS IM sees no reason for panic. “To begin with, recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest a review of quantitative tightening at upcoming FOMC meetings. This should ease downward pressure on bank reserves. As for the recent defaults, our investment team considers them isolated, relatively small, and unrelated, which reduces the likelihood of a systemic credit event. In fact, broader markets—including asset-backed securities (ABS) and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)—have not shown significant spread increases related to these episodes. Overall, it’s worth noting that continued disruptions could create mispricings, offering active managers the chance to deploy capital at attractive valuations,” she explains.

End of the Private Credit Cycle?

Lale Akoner, Global Markets Strategist at eToro, takes a broader view: “We see the credit events in October as idiosyncratic blowups, not systemic fractures. Both companies operated in narrow, high-risk segments of the market—subprime loans with high leverage. The losses were real but concentrated. Crucially, most regional banks showed limited or fully provisioned exposure, with no signs of widespread credit deterioration. This was a wake-up call on layered credit risk, but not a repeat of SVB or 2008 in our view. That said, the opacity of financing structures, the increasing use of PIK interest, and interconnections between funds require closer monitoring through 2026. The good news is that we are in a falling interest rate environment, not in a tightening cycle.”

In this broader reading of the private credit market, Francesco Castelli, Head of Fixed Income and Portfolio Manager of the Euro Bond Fund at Banor SICAV, believes that credit markets are approaching an inflection point in the credit cycle. He notes that “Private Credit markets are behaving like Telecoms in 2000 or Banks in 2007—they were the triggers for major crises in the credit cycle.”

In his view, private credit markets have grown exponentially in recent years due to the high returns they offered, despite not being publicly traded and therefore not pricing in market value on a daily basis. This, in his opinion, makes it harder to detect stress phases, although there are tangible warning signs.

“The main red flag is the behavior of Business Development Companies (BDCs), publicly traded vehicles providing access to private lending, which have entered bearish territory after years of strong gains. This sharp reversal reflects growing investor concern over whether high dividends will continue as borrowers’ cash flows deteriorate and defaults rise. The sudden $10 billion default of First Brands has fueled investor concerns and could be a potential trigger for a broader market reassessment. Combined with the persistent underperformance of CCC-rated bonds compared to higher-quality high yield over the past six months, the message is clear: investors are increasingly distinguishing based on credit quality,” concludes Castelli.

The Rise of Women’s Sports, a Unique Investment Opportunity

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Women’s Sports on the Rise: A Unique Investment Opportunity

Women’s sports are entering a phase of accelerated and sustained growth, representing a “once-in-a-generation” economic opportunity. After years of underinvestment and media invisibility, there are now structural conditions that allow this sector to scale in a more organic, profitable, and sustainable way, according to a report by McKinsey & Company.

According to the consulting firm, women’s sports are no longer a niche “activist” space with a limited fan base: the audience is growing, franchises are expanding, and new formats are emerging. In fact, many women’s sports audiences today come from existing fans of men’s sports—this conversion of sports consumers has been key to the momentum.

Structural Changes and Growth Drivers

McKinsey identifies several key drivers of growth in women’s sports:

  • Growing Fan Base: The number of followers of women’s sports has increased, as has their time spent consuming content (live attendance, television, digital platforms). This fan base incentivizes media companies to purchase broadcasting rights and encourages sponsors to invest more.

  • Innovation in Formats and Leagues: New leagues, complementary competitions, and emerging formats (e.g., 3-on-3 tournaments, franchise-based leagues) allow women’s sports to explore less saturated markets and design their growth with greater flexibility.

  • Value of Media Rights: McKinsey highlights that the cost per viewer hour for women’s media rights is significantly lower than for men’s, suggesting substantial potential for upselling if the gap can be closed.

  • Sponsorships, Marketing, and Brands: Investors, sponsors, and media are starting to see women’s sports not just as a social cause but as an investment with growing returns, thanks to the expanding target audience with purchasing power.

  • Infrastructure and Capital Investment: Private funds, institutional investors, and venture capital have begun backing franchises, leagues, sports data platforms, management services, and other components of the “women’s sports infrastructure.” McKinsey cites players like Project Level (led by Jason Wright), who aim to “level the playing field” as part of their investment strategy.

These combined drivers are generating a “virtuous cycle”: larger audiences → better media rights → more investment → expansion of leagues, franchises, and infrastructure.

Market Projections and Future Monetization

McKinsey estimates that women’s sports media rights in the U.S. could generate at least $2.5 billion annually by 2030, compared to approximately $1 billion estimated in 2024. In other words, a projected growth of 150–250% over the course of this decade.

As for the expected revenue breakdown:

  • Sponsorships (brands, image rights, partnerships) would make up the largest share.

  • Ticket sales and live experiences would be the second most significant source, driven by increased stadium attendance and the growing popularity of live events.

  • Media rights are expected to account for around 20% of total projected revenue.

  • The remaining income would come from merchandise sales, brand activations, licensing, and related products.

A key point is that media rights for women’s sports are still undervalued (lower cost per viewer hour compared to men’s sports), suggesting considerable room for rights holders to capture more value if they improve engagement, grow their audiences, and enhance commercial positioning.

To realize this potential monetization, McKinsey emphasizes the need for coordinated action across all levels of the ecosystem: leagues, franchises, federations, brands, media, and tech platforms.

Challenges, Gaps, and Risks

While the outlook is promising, McKinsey also points to several barriers and risks that could slow the development of women’s sports:

  • Monetization Gap and Risk Perception: Many investors, brands, and media apply a “discount” or bias toward women’s sports due to their shorter track record of financial performance, smaller scale, and perceived uncertainty.

  • Lack of Data, Standards, and Infrastructure: Many women’s sports organizations lack mature capabilities in data analytics, audience metrics, fan retention strategies, or robust technology platforms.

  • Attention Competition and Media Saturation: Women’s sports compete in a crowded entertainment market (men’s sports, streaming, gaming, digital content), making it costly to capture and retain audience attention.

  • Operational Misalignment and Management Capacity: Many women’s franchises operate with small teams, limited resources, and without efficient scaling models, which may limit growth potential and profitability.

  • Overexpansion Risk: Rapid growth without financial or structural backing could lead to instability (e.g., bankruptcies, cutbacks, fan disappointment).

  • Inequality in Access to Capital and Networks: Women’s organizations still have less access to strong capital networks, sponsorships, and partnerships, which could perpetuate growth gaps.

McKinsey warns that the “peak” of positive impact has not yet been reached: many growth dynamics are still in early stages and depend on coordinated, long-term efforts across the ecosystem.

Strategic Recommendations for Stakeholders

To capitalize on the moment, the report offers a series of strategies for different actors:

  • For Investors / Venture Capital: Get involved not only as financiers but also as operators—contribute expertise, connections, and strategic support to emerging franchises.

  • For Franchises / Teams / Leagues: Professionalize operations, invest in data analytics and audience metrics, strengthen digital marketing and storytelling strategies to emotionally engage fans, and build immersive in-person and digital experiences.

  • For Brands and Sponsors: Recognize women’s sports as a growth and positioning opportunity with greater credibility, invest early, build deep partnerships with teams and clubs, and go beyond sponsorship through activations, co-created content, and strategic collaborations.

  • For Media and Streaming Platforms: Raise the visibility of women’s sports, negotiate rights more aggressively, collaborate on original content production, and integrate with digital platforms to boost accessibility and discoverability of competitions.

  • For Federations, Regulators, and Sports Bodies: Enable access, design more balanced calendars, harmonize formats, promote youth development infrastructure for girls, and implement equity policies.

  • For the Ecosystem at Large (Services, Tech, Training, Data): Build complementary businesses (sports analytics, management platforms, specialized agencies, sports marketing) that expand the women’s sports “stack” and contribute to its scalability.

These recommendations aim for each actor to not just “bet” on women’s sports but to become an active part of structural transformation.