In line with Vontobel’s ambition to drive the next stage of growth in the US, Vontobel SFA is expanding its Business Development team. Claudia Ruemmelein and Hansjuerg Raez are joining SFA as Senior Business Developers in the Miami and New York offices on September 1, 2023.
“Together with our ongoing efforts in the US, we believe that this integral next step will enable us to deliver on our strategic ambition, further build out our client base and service our partners and clients more effectively”, the firm said.
The Business Developers are the first point of contact for UBS financial advisors in the US, who continue to recommend SFA to their clients looking to diversify their assets internationally and thus offer tailored investments in Switzerland.
The important responsibility of the Business Developers is to maintain and expand our collaboration with UBS financial advisors, keep them informed about the Vontobel SFA offering, and reliably provide advice and support. The team, which includes employees in Zurich, New York and Miami, is to be expanded to around 10 experts over the next years under the leadership of Patrick Schurtenberger.
Hansjuerg Raez
Claudia will be based in Miami and brings more than 15 years of experience in the financial services industry, with a successful track record of building and developing new business in the Asset Management and Private Equity sectors. She joins us from Mesa Capital Advisors, where she covered Latin American institutional and UHNWI/Family Office clients investing in alternative investments.
Prior to that, she held various roles at First Avenue Partners, Apollo Management and PriceWaterhouse Coopers in New York, London and Frankfurt.
Hansjuerg will be based in New York and also brings more than 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. He joins us from UBS AGNew York, where he was responsible for multinational corporate clients and the expansion of that business for the last nine years.
Prior to that, he was at Trafigura in Stamford, Shanghai and Lucerne in various roles. Hansjuerg holds a bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Bern, Switzerland.
Achieving a portfolio under management of USD 500 million of high-net-worth families in a short period of time is not easy, considering the aggressive competition among firms and colleagues visiting the same clients and offering the same products. The elements that can differentiate us are what determine success or failure.
Over the years, we have overcome international and regional crises that have made us experts in how to protect and increase wealth in the face of changes that occur.
But now, the challenge is greater, because we not only have to face the post-pandemic economic changes, including changes in consumer behavior, but also the management of the inflationary phenomena and global interest rate hikes.
Additionally, we are facing a change in our industry, not only due to the arrival of AI (Artificial Intelligence), but also because major firms are migrating their strategies, and advisors are caught amid this chaos.
Therefore, we must make decisions thinking about our plan for the next 10 years, both for ourselves and for our clients.
Analyzing the situation:
a) Many large firms have shifted their focus from “putting their clients first” to ceasing service to those who are not their primary market… without prior notice, or clear future expectations.
b) There are many parameters to analyze, and everything is based on who your clients are: individual or institutional, country, size, sophistication in investments, with or without banking services (credit cards, transfers, loans); and whether your approach is comprehensive, supporting your clients with their assets and efficient planning and organization of their wealth, or if you prefer to only focus on their investments.
c) Clients demand personalized, flexible, and prompt attention; many “large” firms become bureaucratic and when their focus is not on the client, they lose their responsiveness, either relying on machines or on newly advisors focused on promoting “combo” portfolios that often do not meet the complex profile and needs of the client.
d) Advisors understand the clients’ “preservation profile“: strong jurisdictions in which to diversify with properties and financial assets held in well capitalized firms, with diversified portfolios seeking high income and capital growth, taking advantage of market opportunities within their profile (which is generally more conservative than established… when corrections occur) and therefore managing their assets accordingly, as trusted individuals with whom we have weathered various storms together. Our clients seek captains who know how to navigate and reach the destination.
e) We know where their money comes from, and it truly gives us a unique opportunity to respect their work, admire their achievements, and understand the dynamics of our clients, their families, and businesses in order to plan for intangibles – what is more important: the potential 20% market correction which generally recovers over time, or a family going through a divorce and “losing” 50% of their assets? Or an international client in the US with a personal investment account potentially losing up to 40% of their portfolio above USD 60,000 in US securities due to inheritance taxes? (*IRS info). It is part of our work, along with other professionals, to plan with companies, trusts, and other tax-efficient structures.
f) To preserve wealth, we involve future heirs so that they are aware that investment accounts are the funds generated and not spent over many years by their predecessors, along with the compounding effect (* Rule of 72 info), e.g., a portfolio doubles at 7.2% annual rate every 10 years). This way, when they receive them, they don’t “gamble” with them or spend them with their “new” friends.
g) Providing tools is always more educational than giving away, and for this purpose, there are strategies such as borrowing against the family portfolio (so they develop their projects with the discipline of having the obligation to repay); a strategy that is also used to acquire properties in a tax-efficient manner or support local businesses while maintaining the medium to long-term investment portfolio. It is also good for them to learn how it works because diversification and “time in the markets” are the only secrets to financial success.
Considering this description of the context, we must ask ourselves:
At what point in your life are you…
Do you have the resilience to be a “soldier of your firm”, following orders to “close your clients’ accounts” in exchange for receiving the clients of the colleague who dares to take the step, or to retire? Or do you have the energy to be loyal to your clients to do all the work of establishing their accounts again and understand that there will be surprises along the way with the clients themselves, your colleagues, or the new firm or structure you choose?
Think about the future and try to understand who you want to work for in the next 10 to 15 years: a firm, your own firm, or clients? Your current clients or those who take the step with you (and truly value you)? New clients, markets, team, or strategic alliances?
The feeling that is generated when a partner or client accompanies you is tremendous and generous; they are there for you, just as you have been there for them… and naturally, you will take care of them, their children, and referrals.
It would be expected that the relationships built on years of effort and hard work surpass temporary separations of months (due to compliance with protocols and sector-specific rules).
According to a Wealth-X report, high net worth clients often follow their investment advisors when they decide to switch firms. This is due to the trust and experience that they have developed with their advisor over the years. The report also highlights that client loyalty to the investment advisor outweighs loyalty to the firm itself. Additionally, a survey conducted by PwC reveals that 64% of high-net-worth clients consider the personal relationship with their financial advisor as an important factor when choosing a wealth management firm.
Speaking of motivation, if one is recognized in the industry, besides choosing wisely and going where one feels better, you can “capitalize” on the change, and the work is very well rewarded…
A very personal article, as a Portfolio Manager, a market researcher, and with my own convictions… the same beliefs that led me to enter 2022 with over 30% of my clients’ USD 500 million in cash because I anticipated interest rate hikes and cash along with a small proportion in alternative investments (properties) was the only thing that could protect them.
And, as someone dedicated to my clients, recognized by Forbes, Working Mother, Women We Admire-Miami, and even being congratulated in Times Square… now, anticipating the events and adapting to the new reality, I have stepped out of my comfort zone to search, compare, and find the best place for my clients, a “boutique-style within one of the best capitalized financial institutions in USA with extensive resources,” or as my clients say, “we went from Rolex to Patek Philippe.”
Therefore, considering the question “should I stay, or should I go?”, and in order to grow, check the following points:
The significant growth in wealth management by boutique firms, as indicated in the Wealth-X report, also highlights that boutique firms have been successful in attracting high-profile clients such as successful business owners, institutional investors, and affluent families. This is due to their ability to quickly adapt to the changing needs of these clients, offering tailored solutions and high-quality personalized service, particularly in markets emerging and growing economies.
The increasing demand for online financial services and mobile applications by clients.
The increase in investment in North American firms. Additionally, the importance of understanding tax and legal regulations in both countries and properly preserving money in an efficient tax structure.
The search for estate planning services and investment in real estate in the United States.
Clients’ preference for responsible investment and strong personal relationships based on trust and tailored to cultural needs.
And, I will share my thoughts on strategy at this moment: position your cash… remember that in the last two decades there have only been high interest rates a couple of times, and therefore, considering the decrease in inflation, among many other variables, I believe that interest rates will decrease in the coming years; based on that, I suggest increasing the fixed income investments in your portfolio’s asset allocation, targeting yields of at least 5% with a conservative mix of securities such as fixed-term deposits – CDs (FDIC-insured certificates of deposit), as well as investment-grade bonds. It’s also time to extend the duration and increase maturities to maintain high cash flows and potential appreciation (you can stagger maturities for liquidity if needed). For additional income, growth, and currency diversification, consider including funds & ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), which for emerging markets (bonds and stocks) are a good way to better protect principal, thanks to diversification and tax efficiency – at least, ‘offshore’ offer to international clients.
In conclusion, taking into account these considerations supported by reliable reports and sources, remember the words of Warren Buffett: ‘It takes 20 years to build a reputation and only 5 minutes to ruin it,’ as it will help you make the right decision.
Whether it’s staying with your current firm, moving to another firm, becoming independent, changing sectors, or even taking a break or retiring… It’s time to make that decision with courage, conviction, and triumph. Keep soaring high and enjoy the journey while continuing to be the best version of yourself.
Wipfli, a top 20 advisory and accounting firm, published the results of two industry surveys from the wealth management and asset management sectors to gain insights into their current economic challenges and how they’re positioning themselves for long-term market stability.
Ongoing rate hikes, uncertain market performance, geopolitical tensions, and increased competition all contribute to overall cautious economic predictions in both the new State of the wealth management and State of asset management industry reports.
“Our research indicates common themes uniting wealth management and asset management firms’ priorities,” said Anna Kooi, financial services and institutions practice leader at Wipfli. “Employee retention and recruitment, client engagement, and technology integration are all crucial for future success, and firms have to balance budget allocations and investments in each area appropriately.”
Both wealth management and asset management firms anticipate shifting economic times ahead, with 62% of wealth management firms and 72% of asset management firms expecting a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. Accordingly, the majority of survey participants for each industry estimate conservative market growth of five to eight percent over the next 12 months (55% wealth, 65% asset). Less than a third for both industries anticipate standard growth of eight to ten percent.
Recruiting top talent and implementing technology are key concerns for both industries. About two-thirds of both industries (66% wealth, 69% asset) list employee recruitment as one of their top concerns, and asset management firms note that talent management is their most important strategic focus. Also, asset management firms are ahead of the curve in recognizing how technology can assist and automate tasks for employees, while wealth management firms are also focused on new client acquisition and cultivation.
“Wealth management firms need to focus on targeted strategies that will help them foster long-term stability and viability,” said Paul Lally, wealth and asset management industry leader, principal at Wipfli. “In today’s uncertain economy, it’s critical for firms to adapt and constantly reassess their growth strategies.”
For example, most wealth management firms surveyed listed new client demographics as a key priority, but the majority also reported making no changes to their client acquisition strategies. In addition, offering employee flexibility was seen as key to addressing recruiting concerns, yet 64% of wealth respondents also expected employees to work in the office five days a week. Workplace flexibility and increased employee benefits will be key for firms to attract new talent, and wealth management firms should ensure that their growth plans align with their overall goals and initiatives to avoid contradictions in their strategies.
Asset management respondents are experiencing a massive shift in how technology is applied in their day-to-day operations. Three-quarters of asset firms surveyed named “managing and implementing change” as the top factor driving their goal achievement. With the onset of industry-changing technologies like artificial intelligence enhancing their work, asset management firms know they are on the precipice of a new era.
“Asset management firms recognize the important role technology will need to play due to the ever increasing complexity of investment opportunities and client demands.” said Ron Niemaszyk, partner for Wipfli’s wealth and asset management practice. “New and older generations of clients are increasingly comfortable with technology, and expect firms to provide a level of reporting on metrics well beyond that of monthly returns. Investors are now looking for insights into their portfolios’ risks and exposure to ESG initiatives. Firms who begin offering this type of reporting now can establish an edge in client acquisition over less progressive competitors.”
Technological integration is transforming how wealth management and asset management firms do business. In both industries, some firms are already using technology to support more efficient client onboarding and account management processes, as well as using data analytics to inform business decisions. Eighty-three percent of asset management firms are using business analytics to support data-driven decisions, and 58% of wealth management firms have increased their use of analytics in key business strategies.
The wealth management survey was based on responses from 102 wealth management firms across 28 states, and the asset management survey had 99 firms respond across 31 states. Both the State of the asset management report and the State of the wealth management report can be found on Wipfli’s website.
The Natixis IM survey reveals that portfolio managers’ most significant concern continues to be the increasing inflation rate (70%), followed by a sustained rise in interest rate (63%). Despite this outlook, investment advisors remain optimistic.
According to the same source, asset funds, sustainable investments, and private assets are the focus of portfolio managers for the remainder of 2023.
In this regard, investment fund managers see potential opportunities in the rising interest rates that accompany inflation, making fixed-income instruments a significant player during 2023.
However, the returns offered by these instruments in some Latin American countries are favorable for attracting investors through offshore investment vehicles, helping to increase their distribution in international private banking.
Several alternatives in the market allow for securitizing a fixed-income investment strategy or any portfolio with diverse underlying assets. When making a choice, it is essential to consider the following aspects:
Cost: There are two main costs associated with an investment vehicle. The first is related to the structuring and launch of the investment vehicle, and the second refers to the expenses related to its daily maintenance. Both cost elements are crucial when selecting a suitable investment vehicle to avoid penalizing investors with high structural costs impacting their returns.
Trading Hours and Operations: Some European investment vehicles may not offer operational and tradable hours fully compatible with those in the Americas. This is particularly important when the investment strategy requires quick execution of subscription and redemption orders by the trading desk.
Distribution and Custody Capacity: One of the main criteria for selecting an investment vehicle should be its potential for future distribution. Nowadays, registering investment funds on certain private banking platforms can be a costly, lengthy, and tedious process.
Transparency and Disclosure: Ensuring the investment vehicle provides clear and detailed information about its investment strategy, underlying assets, and associated risks. Transparency and proper disclosure are fundamental for investors to make informed decisions.
Flexibility and Diversification Capability: It is especially important to consider whether the investment vehicle is flexible enough to package multiple asset classes. This will allow for portfolio diversification and the application of hedging and covered call strategies.
Launch Time: The timing and synchronization between the vehicle’s launch and capital raising is usually crucial for asset managers. It is not only about the structure having an agile “time to market” but also about coordinating inflows from investors promptly.
In this context, the following is a comparative analysis between the Active Management Certificate (AMC) and FlexFunds‘ FlexPortfolio, where you can learn about the advantages and disadvantages of each:
AMCs present themselves as a flexible alternative with the capacity to solve the scalability issue. Due to their nature as structured products, they may be more complex and may not share many of the advantages offered by ETPs (Exchange Traded Products).
On the other hand, the FlexPortfolio is an internationally recognized solution for asset managers seeking a quick and efficient structure to launch various investment strategies. It is an investment vehicle that allows for the securitization of multiple listed asset classes.
It transforms an investment strategy into a negotiable security listed on a stock exchange and distributable through Euroclear. This way, asset managers can significantly expand the distribution of their portfolios.
Among the main advantages offered by the FlexPortfolio are:
Flexibility:
The FlexPortfolio offers broad flexibility in the underlying assets that can be repackaged
Ease of distribution:
Investors can access the investment strategy you design directly from their own brokerage accounts. It is a simple securities purchase operation with an ISIN-CUSIP number.
The FlexPortfolio is a Eurocleable investment vehicle. Therefore, your investment strategy can be distributed globally.
Operational Capacity:
There is little or no restriction concerning rebalancing or trading the underlying FlexPortfolio’s account.
The manager can perform all trades directly in the brokerage account without the involvement of third parties.
FlexPortfolio allows direct access and trading of your brokerage account 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, regardless of the time zone.
Security of issuance:
The investment strategy is backed by the underlying assets and utterly independent of the promoter’s activities.
Possibility of leverage:
Leverage can be available for many strategies. At FlexFunds, through Interactive Brokers, we offer you the possibility to trade on margin.
Competitive Costs:
The FlexPortfolio can have no set-up or maintenance cost, making it a very cost-efficient investment vehicle.
Speed of launch:
The setup and launch of the FlexPortfolio usually take between 6 and 8 weeks. This can be less than half the time required by other alternatives in the market.
In summary, the selection of an investment vehicle will depend, among other factors, on the underlying assets you wish to repackage, the available time and cost, future distribution needs, and operational requirements.
The FlexPortfolio offers a simple, flexible, agile, and cost-efficient solution for asset managers. Consider our FlexPortfolio when evaluating an AMC or any other investment vehicle. You can contact FlexFundsthrough the following email address info@flexfunds.com, and one of our representatives will contact you to assess the solution that best suits your needs and investment strategy.
Emilio Veiga Gil , Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer for FlexFunds.
Bolton Global Capital is pleased to welcome Ivan Palacino as the latest financial advisor to join the firm.
Palacino is a seasoned international financial advisor with over thirty years in the business, servicing high net worth clients and institutions in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.
He started in the financial industry in his native Colombia working for Banco de Credito. Later in his career he worked at Salomon Smith Barney, Lehman Brothers and Barclays Capital Inc, before ultimately joining Morgan Stanley in 2013 as a Vice President.
“We are looking forward to working with Ivan. He is an insightful industry veteran who undoubtedly will be a key player for the Bolton team. As we continue to grow, having an advisor of Ivan’s caliber is definitely an exceptional asset for us“ said Michael Averett, Bolton’s Head of Business Development.
Palacino holds degrees from the Universidad De Los Andes as Specialist in Negotiation and International Affairs and a B.S from the Universidad del Rosario in Business Administration. He will be working in the Bolton Global Capital offices at the Four Seasons Tower in Miami.
Photo courtesyShane Cunningham, Axxes Capital Managing Director and Head of U.S. Offshore & LATAM Distribution
Axxes Capital announced it has appointed former Franklin Templeton executive Shane Cunningham as Managing Director and Head of U.S. Offshore & LATAM Distribution.
In his new role, Cunningham will lead the firms’ offshore initiatives across all sales and marketing-related activities for the U.S. Offshore and Latin American intermediary markets and manage all third-party distributors for the region.
Cunningham brings a wealth of experience to Axxes Capital, following a distinguished career at Franklin Templeton spanning more than 20 years and crossing three decades.
His tenure at Franklin Templeton culminated in his role as a Senior Vice President and Offshore National Sales Manager, where he successfully led the offshore sales team covering the NRC market, Canada, and the Caribbean Islands. He also served as President and CEO of Templeton Franklin Investment Services (TFIS) broker-dealer.
Axxes Capital’s Founder, Chairman, and CEO, Joseph DaGrosa, Jr., welcomed Cunningham’s appointment: “The addition of Shane rounds out our highly experienced sales and distribution leadership team, allowing us to execute on our global growth strategy.”
Parker Roy, Global Head of Distribution at Axxes Capital, added “With Shane’s 20 plus years of experience in US Offshore and LATAM, we look forward to leveraging his insights to deliver attractive private market solutions specific to this marketplace.”
The team at FlexFunds, a fund manager specialising in the creation and launch of customised investment vehicles (ETPs), discusses in the following article the advantages of ETFs for an investor, as well as the most common mistakes that are often made and how they can be avoided:
What are ETFs, and how do they work?
One of the possibilities for investing in the stock market when you have little experience and fundamental knowledge is to do so through passive management funds, since they are usually characterized by their greater diversification and lower risk, in addition to having lower commissions.
An ETF is a publicly traded investment vehicle comprising a basket of assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. Its operation is simple, and the most common replicate indices, such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100, metals such as gold, or sets of shares, are grouped by sectors such as biotechnology, information technology, or geographic markets.
Advantages of ETFs: liquidity, transparency, and lower volatility
In addition to lower volatility, their main advantages include being listed on the stock exchange, which enables them to be traded like shares, improving their liquidity. Additionally, their commissions are low, as the vast majority of them are passive management products, and their great transparency, as the assets that make up the ETF portfolio and their net asset value are published daily. If, in addition, as numerous studies have shown, the managers of actively managed investment funds are not usually able to outperform the indexes they replicate, their high fees are unjustified, which improves the attractiveness of ETFs for investors.
Although ETFs are an excellent investment vehicle, their high demand among beginners and experienced investors has encouraged the design of different types, from traditional to synthetic, inverse to leveraged, and different variations that can be created in a portfolio. But sometimes, the product is not known, and mistakes and misinterpretations can be made, leading to unpleasant surprises. For this reason, FlexFunds has a specialized team that can guide you through the process of structuring investment vehicles similar to ETFs, allowing you to expand access to international investors for any investment strategy you design.
The 10 most common mistakes when investing in ETFs
Among the most common mistakes, made by those who invest in ETFs, are those that are due to the lack of attention to certain key factors such as:
ETF Investment Strategy
Not analyzing the investment strategy of the ETF or its composition is one of the most common mistakes since it is essential to understand what underlying the ETF follows to see if it adapts to the investor’s objectives. On the other hand, knowing what you are investing in and understanding it is decisive. It must be analyzed to what extent the return of the ETF is close to that of the index that it replicates and how consistent the monitoring is.
Buyer Investment Plan
Not having a long-term investment plan, which allows the roadmap and the objectives to be pursued, as well as the risks to be assumed to be designed, can lead to making decisions based on emotions, impulsive, and not very rational. Having a roadmap and setting goals for the future, along with a contingency plan, can be a good idea to avoid disappointment.
Monitor the portfolio and its evolution
Not monitoring the portfolio regularly and thinking everything will be fine is a bad decision. A certain majority of listed ETFs have a high probability of underperforming and disappearing. Portfolio monitoring is key to avoiding upsets and making the necessary adjustments.
Associated expenses and commissions
Buying and selling too frequently can lead to higher-than-expected expenses, eroding profitability. Readjusting an investor’s ETF portfolio means facing sales commissions, purchase commissions for the new ETF, and taxing capital gains. The associated expenses erode the returns obtained and the gap compared to those expected.
Liquidity
Not analyzing the liquidity of the ETF can generate losses or problems when it comes to recovering the money in the sale. Suppose the values that make up the index that replicates the ETF are not negotiable or are not very liquid. In that case, the ETF can be listed at a premium, in the purchase, or at a discount in the sale; the range of purchase and sale prices will be wider. It may be listed at a premium when the price is higher than the net asset value or at a discount in sales operations when the price is below said value. In these cases, buying or selling orders should be limited instead of at market prices.
Structure and internal functioning
ETFs have a structure and operation that is important to know before investing because it can impact your level of risk, commissions, and losses. Assessing it in depth allows you to understand how it follows the index you want to replicate and what assets can form it, which affects risk and cost. It can be a full replica ETF (investing in the same assets as the index) or synthetic, supported by futures and derivatives issued by a third party, increasing risk exposure for both the underlying and the third party.
Profitability
Assuming that the past performance of the ETF is going to be transferred to the future tends to occur in less seasoned investors since, many times, they are attracted by the announced historical performance without taking into account the period of time where it has been reached and if it has been done continuously or punctually. The consistency of this aspect in the long term should be one of the criteria to consider since if the announced return is similar to the average of the last five years, the probability of being faced with a good choice will increase. However, this does not guarantee that any change in the environment won’t affect negatively.
Changes in volatility
Many times, an ETF is bought without considering the factors that drive its greater volatility, which may be derived from the volatility of the underlying or the lack of liquidity of the ETF itself. In both cases, the consequence is a widening of the price range, which can be detrimental. Another similar situation is their operation when the price variation is greater, such as during the first and last minutes of the opening and closing of the market where they are listed, respectively. Thus, avoiding trading in these time intervals helps to deal with less volatility and, therefore, less risk.
The ETF Market
Care must be taken with the geographic exposure of the ETF since it can focus on a specific market that may not adapt to the investor’s interests or not mitigate the risk due to overexposure to a certain market. The net asset value of an ETF is calculated at the close of the local market, which can cause problems if you wish to operate when the associated underlying market has different hours than the market on which the ETF is listed. The latter is listed at a value other than the net asset value, therefore, increasing the premium or discount, due to the existing divergence between the prices. Therefore, it is advisable to diversify geographically and by asset class.
Taxation
As with investing in other financial products, you must always take into account their taxation and the tax obligations that it entails since failure to comply with some of them can bring significant sanctions that dilute the final profitability of the ETF. In some countries, unlike index funds, transfers from one ETF to another are not exempt from tax. On the other hand, if the broker has the depository abroad, likely, it will not notify the treasury of the country where the holder resides, neither the yields nor the capital gains generated and, therefore, it is the investor himself who must make the corresponding informative declarations, being able to carry a sanction if it does not do so.
Although many other risks are associated with ETF trading, those detailed above are often the most common. Therefore, great attention should be paid to all of them, especially by those investors who could be blinded by the benefits of this product and make inappropriate decisions for their profile.
For more information on the setup and issuance of investment vehicles similar to ETFs, please get in touch with our specialists at info@flexfunds.com.
U.S. equities were mixed during the month of May. While mega-cap tech stocks benefited from a wave of optimism fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), the current Federal debt crisis loomed large, dominating the headlines and affecting market sentiment. The first quarter earnings season concluded and while the “better than feared” label can describe the past few earnings seasons quite well, the general increase to 2023 guidance is an encouraging sign for companies overall. After tense negotiations between the White House and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the House of Representatives passed legislation to suspend the debt ceiling and set federal spending limits in an effort to avoid a potential economic catastrophe. The bill was sent to the Senate, which finally passed it on June 1st, so the nation’s new debt limit has been extended through January 1, 2025.
On May 3, the Federal Reserve announced another 25bps rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting, bringing the targeted federal funds rate to 5.00-5.25%. During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year and that the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go.
Mega-cap tech stocks have been the prime beneficiaries of the recent positive momentum regarding artificial intelligence, with NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) as the top three contributors to the Russell 1000’s performance for the month of May.
May was a challenging month for merger arbitrage investing as First Horizon (FHN) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) walked away from their deal, and the U.S. FTC sued to block Amgen’s (AMGN) $27 billion acquisition of Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP). Spreads on other deals widened in sympathy, however, we view this as an opportunity to add to positions at wider spreads despite the setbacks. The market has appropriately begun pricing in more concerns around regulatory scrutiny and risk, which has resulted in wider spreads that have negatively impacted performance. New deal activity is creating opportunities for investors to deploy capital in deals where we believe arbitrageurs can be appropriately compensated, and believe that over time will continue to generate absolute returns.
The convertible market was essentially flat in May, as fears of a recession and the US debt ceiling impasse weighed on the market while mixed economic data and company guidance gave some optimistic investors hope. Equity market breadth is quite low with only a few names driving performance. On balance the market feels like it is waiting for an inevitable recession. We recognize the importance that these macro factors have on a convertible portfolio, but believe the market currently offers an opportunity for favourable risk adjusted performance relative to underlying equities in this environment.
The unique opportunity in convertibles currently comes from fixed income equivalent issues that are trading at attractive yields to maturity in excess of our long term expected return. These are often convertibles within a few years of maturity that we expect to accrete to par over that time. While this is not the profile we have focused on historically, we find it to be attractive for the fund in this environment. These convertibles should have limited downside from here and we expect them to outperform equities in a flat, down, or volatile market.
In this new global context: rising interest rates and inflationary pressures triggered mainly by the expansionary monetary policies applied by central banks during the pandemic, together with a new geopolitical reality, investors’ and portfolio managers’ appetite for fixed income has been reawakened. Relegated in recent years due to low-interest rates, this asset class is now a tool for protecting purchasing power in the face of inflation.
The recent bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March reverberated across markets, raising concerns about the impact on the financial sector in general and global monetary policy, reinforcing investment in fixed-income instruments as an exciting option for investors.
The US financial multinational Morgan Stanley is betting on bonds. It ranks them as the potential big winners of 2023. “This will be particularly true for high-quality bonds, which have historically performed well after the Federal Reserve (Fed) stops raising interest rates, even when a recession follows,” explained Andrew Sheets, chief strategist at Morgan Stanley Research.
For the first time since 2007, nearly 90% of the bond market yields above 4%. As BlackRock explains, the rate hike has brought the highest returns the US bond market has seen in over a decade.
The return offered by some fixed-income instruments in certain Latin American countries provides a unique opportunity to attract local or international investors through securitization tools and the creation of offshore investment vehicles or ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products), which allow increasing their distribution exponentially.
At FlexFunds, we can confirm that the creation of ETPs with this strategy has increased during the last year. Focusing mainly on Latin American investors, these instruments seek to offer:
1. Stability: Fixed-income investments are usually considered stable and low-risk compared to existing portfolio options. The fixed income is an instrument that offers a fixed interest rate paid periodically, which provides a constant and recurring source of income.
2. Income predictability: Since fixed-income investments offer interest at a predefined rate, it is feasible to project the amount and timing of the investor’s income. This is especially useful for those seeking steady sources of income to plan their budget.
3. Inflation protection: this is a key benefit of fixed-income bonds. Typically, these bonds come with an interest rate higher than the inflation rate, which means that the investor is protected against the erosion of the purchasing power of their money.
4. Diversification: This asset class can be a valuable tool for diversifying an investment portfolio and reducing downside risk. Since the return on a fixed income is not related directly to the performance of stock markets, it can be an effective way to have a balanced and diversified portfolio.
In the current environment, to take advantage of the opportunity that fixed income is bringing to the table, and after evaluating various alternatives in the market, many asset managers have found FlexFunds‘ FlexPortfolio an efficient solution for the management and distribution of fixed income strategies because it allows them:
1. Flexibility: FlexPortfolio is an instrument tailored to the manager’s needs. The manager can choose and trade the assets they wish to invest and adjust their allocation according to the proposed strategy’s conditions.
2. Accessibility: Managers can expand their access to investors globally. The FlexPortfolio can be purchased from existing brokerage accounts simply as it has an ISIN number, with settlement through Euroclear/Clearstream.
3. Lower costs: The cost of setting up a FlexPortfolio can be half that of other alternatives in the market. Managers benefit from economies of scale and structural and back-office cost savings.
4. Transparency: FlexPortfolios offer complete transparency to the investor compared to other investment vehicles, as the underlying assets and their returns are always visible.
5. Versatility: One of the main advantages of the FlexPortfolio is that it allows a tailor-made combination of assets to be designed and executed in a single investment. A FlexPortfolio can include various assets: stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies.
6. Liquidity: FlexPortfolios offer high liquidity because investors can subscribe and redeem their holdings in the portfolio more quickly, compared to buying and selling the underlying assets individually. The liquidity of this investment vehicle is directly proportional to the liquidity of its underlying assets.
In conclusion, in the current economic environment, fixed income can provide stability and security to investors due to its ability to offer fixed and relatively predictable income. However, as with any investment, it is essential to evaluate it carefully and have the right advice to weigh its pros and cons before making an investment decision. When establishing an investment vehicle that allows you to design and distribute a fixed-income strategy, FlexFunds‘ FlexPortfolio may be an alternative.
Pablo Gegalian serves as Regional Director of Southern Cone for FlexFunds .
U.S. stocks were mostly higher to finish March despite a banking crisis that caused the second & third-largest bank failures in U.S. history. The market’s mood and outlook shifted as investors’ expectations about the Fed’s policy path drove a significant rotation into growth names, with big tech, semis and software among the notable beneficiaries.
The month started with thoughts of a higher terminal rate in response to stronger-than-expected economic data, supported by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony about accelerating the pace of rate hikes if necessary. However, investors quickly focused their attention on bank deposit stress and losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) assets, as an accelerating bank run brought about the rapid regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY). Both banks had an unusually high ratio of uninsured deposits that spooked customers into seeking insurance.
On March 22, the Federal Reserve announced another 25bps rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting, bringing the targeted federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00%. During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the central bank may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle but he qualified that the inflation fight is not over. Most investors still expect at least one more rate hike this year. The next FOMC meeting is May 2-3.
Growth stocks have substantially outperformed value stocks to start 2023. We believe this creates an opportunity for Value Investors. The market is pricing a cut in interest rates sooner than Powell’s comments imply. The current environment of rising interest rates will continue to put a premium on near term cash flows, which should benefit our portfolio of companies.
As value oriented stock pickers, we believe now is our time to shine. We continue to seek franchise businesses with barriers to entry, pricing power, recurring revenue and large free cash flow generation that are trading below Private Market Value. The environment is still ripe for value surfacing catalysts: while M&A activity was down in 2022, it is still robust compared to most historical years. Companies have many opportunities to pursue financial engineering, not limited to M&A. We believe our portfolio of holdings is well positioned to thrive in this environment and their value will be recognized by the market in due time.
Global M&A volume totalled $580 billion in the first quarter, a 23% sequential decline from the fourth quarter of 2022 and a decrease of 44% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Healthcarewas the most active sector for M&A, totalling $97 billion of dealmaking, an increase of 60% compared to 2022, and it accounted for 17% of all deals. Technology and Industrials were the next most active sectors, accounting for 17% and 13%, respectively.
Private Equity activity remained robust, accounting for more than 25% of deal volume in the first quarter. Despite the global slowdown in deals, public company M&A in the U.S. remained stable sequentially. Notable deals that closed in March include: Atlas Air Worldwide (AAWW-NASDAQ) which was acquired by Apollo Global for $5 billion, Coupa Software (COUP-NASDAQ) which was acquired by Thoma Bravo for $6 billion, Vivint Smart Home (VVNT-NYSE) which was acquired by NRG Energy for $5 billion, Altra Industrial Motion Corp. (AIMC-NASDAQ) which was acquired by Regal Rexnord for $5 billion, and Duck Creek Technologies (DCT-NASDAQ) which was acquired by Vista Equity Partners for $2.5 billion, among others.
Despite the noted volatility this month, the convertible market finished slightly higher with strong performance following the CS acquisition. Convertible performance is more a function of underlying equity movements than interest rates, but both factors had a positive contribution over the last few weeks. Issuance has continued to trickle in and we have added some recent new issues to the portfolio. Generally, these have helped increase current yield while diversifying the portfolio with balanced convertibles.
We continue to remain optimistic for the possibilities of convertibles as an asset class this year, as they allow investors to position their portfolio cautiously while allowing them to participate when the market moves higher. There are many convertibles with a yield to maturity in excess of the long-term expected return of the convertible market despite solid and improving fundamentals. As we have noted previously, we have managed convertibles through multiple market downturns and have seen how they can be a great tool for companies to raise capital despite uncertainty while offering investors a risk-adjusted way to participate in a recovery.
Opinion article by Michael Gabelli, Managing Director at Gabelli & Partners.
