Economic Strength, Monetary Policy, and Disinflation: Three Arguments in Favor of Emerging Markets

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Mercados emergentes y fortalezas económicas

The new Donald Trump administration brings uncertainty to emerging markets. However, investment firms believe it is essential to look beyond this and remember that these regions have stronger markets and that the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy continues to favor risk assets.

According to Kirstie Spence, portfolio manager at Capital Group, many of the major emerging markets can leverage various tools: higher reserve volumes, positive real interest rates with room to decline, fewer imbalances than developed markets, and exchange rates that are fairly valued or undervalued.

“They have policy flexibility to weather the storm if needed. Except for the less consolidated economies, external balances are solid. Additionally, inflation is trending downward in a restrictive monetary policy environment. Fiscal indicators are often a weak point for these markets, but most major emerging markets have extended their debt maturity profile and are now issuing more in local currency,” argues Spence.

She also notes that a Federal Reserve less inclined to cut rates could put pressure on central banks in less developed emerging economies, making it difficult for them to maintain higher interest rates, especially in countries concerned about inflation and financial stability risks. “In more developed emerging markets, particularly in the Asian region, central banks have shown greater confidence in getting ahead of the Federal Reserve, given the absence of systemic pressures on financial systems and the development of deeper, more liquid domestic markets,” she adds.

According to Claudia Calich, Global Head of Emerging Debt at M&G, it is interesting to analyze that the disinflation story in emerging markets is practically complete, with few exceptions in high-inflation countries such as Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria. “It is remarkable how poorly Latin America performed in 2024, affected by both currency depreciation and rising yields. There is much less room for rate cuts, given the expected inflation path in most inflation-targeting economies. However, there is potential for a yield rebound if country-specific concerns ease, such as improved fiscal prospects in Brazil or greater clarity on trade between the U.S. and Mexico, and if currencies stabilize or recover some of the depreciation seen in 2024,” says Calich.

Implications for Investors

Given this backdrop, asset managers are looking for investment opportunities in emerging markets, with debt being one of the most analyzed areas. According to M&G’s expert, local currency bonds in emerging markets remain underappreciated, which could be a good signal for contrarian investors willing to step in and endure some volatility. “However, high short-term interest rates in key markets like the U.S., U.K., and, to a lesser extent, the Eurozone, remain a hurdle for this asset class, and global macroeconomic uncertainty doesn’t help. Local currency bonds in emerging markets still face strong competition from high short-term rates in the U.S., U.K., and Eurozone. This could improve in the future as central banks continue easing, but the risk of ‘higher for longer’ rates remains, especially if U.S. inflation expectations deteriorate due to tariffs,” she explains.

Additionally, M&G acknowledges that they remain selectively constructive on emerging market currencies, as their valuations have become even more attractive after last year’s sell-off. “However, timing the right moment to act is complex, as the fate of the U.S. dollar will largely depend on the policy mix adopted by the new administration,” Calich notes.

The Heavyweights

When discussing investment opportunities, Chris Thomsen, portfolio manager at Capital Group, highlights two “heavyweights”: India and China. In his view, both emerging markets have followed very different trajectories over the past five years, with Indian equities significantly outperforming Chinese equities.

“Valuations reflect these differences. While both markets offer attractive opportunities, they come with their own risks and investment drivers. The increasing penetration of mobile phones among India’s young and vast population has benefited telecom companies like Bharti Airtel, but the high valuation levels make selectivity crucial,” explains Thomsen.

On the other hand, he points out that China’s massive domestic consumer market could be boosted by government stimulus measures, creating opportunities for well-positioned digital companies. “Some companies like Tencent and NetEase hold dominant positions, have strong cash flows, and high-quality management teams. However, investing in China remains risky due to ongoing tensions with the U.S. and the trade priorities of the new Trump administration,” says the Capital Group manager, adding that the reconfiguration of global supply chains presents opportunities in Brazil, Mexico, and Indonesia.

The Industry Will Increase Its allocation to Venture Capital, Private Multi-Asset Solutions and Infrastructure

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Inversión en capital de riesgo y activos privados
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The increasing allocation to private markets in response to market evolution by wealth managers and financial advisors is a clear trend in the industry. In fact, according to the Global Investor Insights Survey (GIIS) by Schroders, more than half of these professionals are currently investing in private markets, with an additional 20% expecting to do so within the next two years.

The survey, which includes 1,755 wealth managers and financial advisors globally—representing $12.1 trillion in assets—reveals that private equity (53%), private multi-asset solutions (47%), and renewable infrastructure equity (46%) are the top three private market asset classes where advisors and wealth managers expect their clients to increase allocations in the next 1-2 years.

Regarding how they expect client allocations to private market asset classes to change over the next 1-2 years, two-thirds of wealth managers and financial advisors highlight the potential for higher returns compared to public markets as the primary benefit of private market investing for their clients. This was closely followed by the ability to achieve diversification through different return drivers (62%). Additionally, on average, most investor allocations to private markets represent between 5%-10% or 1%-5% of their total portfolio exposure.

 

According to Carla Bergareche, Global Head of Wealth Management at Schroders’ Client Group, while many wealth managers and financial advisors are already investing in private markets on behalf of their clients, allocation sizes remain significantly lower than the 20% or more seen in family office and institutional investor portfolios.

“This gap represents a significant opportunity to strengthen client engagement with private markets. We therefore expect these markets to play an increasingly important role in wealth investment portfolios as investors become more aware of the potential for strong and diversified returns,” explains Bergareche.

Access to Private Market Investments

Another key finding is that just over half of surveyed wealth managers and advisors indicated that they access private market opportunities through exchange-traded funds, closely followed by semi-liquid or open-ended indefinite-duration funds (51%). Despite these opportunities, lack of liquidity is cited as the main challenge when discussing private markets with clients.

According to Schroders, 49% of respondents stated that greater financial education for clients would help drive demand, followed by better-suited product structures (42%) and lower investment minimums (42%).

“There is no doubt that private wealth will play a very significant role in private markets in the future. Until now, wealth managers and advisors have had limited options to access these markets compared to their institutional counterparts, which explains why, despite their intent, we still see relatively low allocations,” says Tim Boole, Head of Private Equity Product Management at Schroders Capital.

However, in his experience, the emergence of new vehicles, such as semi-liquid funds, has expanded available access points, representing a significant advancement in providing greater flexibility for investors to achieve their financial goals through private markets. “It’s no surprise that these structures are favored by this client segment,” Boole adds.

Wealth Transfer as a Key Priority

Additionally, the firm highlights that wealth transfer has been identified as a priority for 59% of wealth managers and financial advisors worldwide. In North America, 66% consider it a priority, compared to 57% in the UK, 57% in Asia-Pacific, and 58% in EMEA.

The report shows that wealth transfer discussions are more deeply embedded in the Americas. Specifically, Latin America has the highest level of engagement globally, with 58% of advisors stating they have addressed this topic with more than half of their clients. In EMEA and Asia-Pacific, participation is lower, with 43% and 46% of advisors engaging in these discussions, primarily due to cultural sensitivities.

Why Texas Continues to Attract New Residents and Businesses?

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Texas continues to be one of the fastest-growing states in the U.S., driven by migration, economic growth, and a vibrant housing market. Realtor.com’s new report displays why people and businesses are moving to Texas. 

Over one in four home shoppers in Texas are from out of state, with the largest groups coming in from California and international sources. The state’s economic expansion, specifically in technology, manufacturing, and construction, has created a strong job market that attracts newcomers seeking employment and lower living costs. 

“In the years since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Texas economy has boomed, especially in high-demand industries like technology, education, manufacturing, and construction,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com

Texas has also become a leader in new home construction, accounting for 15% of the nation’s new housing permits in 2024. The state has focused on building smaller, more affordable homes, helping ease the housing shortage. While new homes in Texas are slightly smaller than a few years ago, the share of homes priced below $350,000 has risen, making homeownership more attainable. 

Despite rising prices, Texas remains more affordable than the national average. As of December 2024, the median listing price in Texas was $360,000 – about $40,000 lower than the national median. Nearly half of homes for sale in Texas were priced at $350,000 or less, compared to 40.1% nationwide. However, there is still a gap in affordability for lower-income households, with only 17% of homes affordable to those earning less than $75,000 annually. 

Texas also stands out for its affordable rental market. In 2024, Austin and San Antonio ranked among the top 10 rental markets, with Austin becoming a hotspot for recent college graduates due to its combination of affordable rents and job opportunities. 

“By showcasing solutions from states like Texas and calling attention to those that are falling behind, we can drive a national conversation that leads to real, meaningful change,” said Damian Eales, CEO at Realtor.com

While San Antonio has the highest share of homes priced under $350,000, Austin remains the least affordable major metro. Despite challenges, Texas offers a more affordable housing market than many other regions. 

The report highlights Texas’ ongoing growth and its challenges in balancing demand with affordability. As migration to the state continues, the housing market will likely evolve in response to these dynamics.

Investing in AI: How to Gain an Edge in the New Technological Revolution

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Inversión en IA y revolución tecnológica
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Artificial Intelligence (AI) has transitioned from being a futuristic concept to becoming a reality that is transforming multiple aspects of daily life. From virtual assistants to autonomous vehicles, AI is present in almost everything. As a result, investing in companies related to the sector has become an attractive strategy, making it one of the most dynamic and promising sectors for investors.

To contextualize, according to Statista, the global market value of Artificial Intelligence could exceed $300 billion by 2026, making this industry one of the most attractive for the future.

However, to better understand and gain exposure by investing in AI, we must consider various aspects that provide a complete picture: analyzing its structure as a sector; evaluating existing investment options (the ones that suit us best); the markets in which it is present; opportunity and risk, as well as future advantages and disadvantages.

As Laura Helsinger, an Artificial Intelligence expert, points out, there are three key groups to understand this sector: innovators, users, and facilitators or resource providers.

The innovators refer to companies that are creating this technology, both in software (Google, Meta, IBM, or Microsoft) and in hardware (Tesla, Rockwell, Boston Dynamics, among others). The users are the companies that use Artificial Intelligence in their products, operations, or inventories and are present in various sectors, such as Target (in retail), John Deere (agriculture), or Lemonade (finance), to name a few. And the facilitators or resource providers are the companies that are creating the infrastructure for the innovators to develop Artificial Intelligence and for the users to adopt it.

In this last point, the role of companies like Nvidia stands out, whose stock was worth $14.61 at the end of 2022 and is now at $138.07, showing a return of more than 800%. Other similar cases are Intel, Oracle, AMD, among others.

From our perspective, it is important to outline key points to understand how to invest in AI. There are three categories to gain exposure to this niche: stocks, ETFs, and Investment Funds.

For stocks, it is important to choose companies that have broad exposure, with access to the International Quotation System (SIC) and the entire U.S. stock market. However, it is advisable that when deciding to invest under this category, one does not only bet on one or two stocks but rather try to form a more diversified portfolio, as in innovative sectors like AI, it is sometimes difficult to predict which company will be the winner or which will capture greater growth or a larger market share. The case of Nvidia is a clear example.

As advantages of investing in this instrument, direct exposure, flexibility, and customization stand out. Some disadvantages may be analysis and selection, concentration, and diversification, which implies a higher risk.

In the case of ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), investors can diversify their portfolios without having to buy each asset individually. With an ETF, an entire portfolio of selected companies is purchased by an expert team.

Some advantages of investing in these instruments are: professional management, simplicity, diversification, and a low minimum investment. Among the disadvantages, less directed exposure stands out.

In the Investment Fund category, there are instruments focused on investing in global innovation trends with exposure to Artificial Intelligence, which establish a strategy with broad diversification and long-term growth potential, with a low correlation of returns compared to traditional growth strategies.

The advantages of these instruments can be: active professional management, simplicity, diversification, and a low minimum investment. Disadvantages: diversified exposure to additional niches.

In this sense, Artificial Intelligence is shaping the future, while also offering a vast array of investment opportunities that should not be overlooked.

It is essential to understand that, like any investment, investing in Artificial Intelligence requires in-depth research and careful risk assessment. This is where financial advisory plays a key role: having the support of an expert not only helps to design a personalized strategy that maximizes returns but also provides the confidence needed to make informed decisions. With the right guidance, investing in AI not only becomes an opportunity for significant returns but also a way to be an active part of one of the most significant technological revolutions of our time.

By Moises Saad, VP Director of Advisory and Investment Solutions GBM

From the Visible to the Invisible: The Impact of Tariffs on the Market, Assets, and Portfolios

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Impacto de los aranceles en mercados y carteras
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After a few weeks of intense market reactions to Donald Trump’s statements, investors have shown they can tolerate the volatility his words generate. “Throughout the week, the market has focused more on the positives than the negatives. In all cases, it seems that the parties have given themselves time to negotiate—the new Chinese tariffs will take effect on February 10—allowing stock markets to resume their upward trend on Tuesday. Additionally, inflation fears remain under control, which has strengthened fixed-income markets, especially longer-duration bonds,” analysts at Banca March noted.

For Yves Bonzon, CIO of Julius Baer, the U.S. stock market no longer fears potential tariffs, seeing them merely as a negotiation tool for Trump to extract benefits from the involved governments. “We now know that the president views the stock market as one of the best indicators of his policy success. He cannot ignore the consequences of imposing tariffs of this magnitude on U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement partners. If we add trade with Mexico and China, which currently faces 10% tariffs, nearly half of U.S. imports are now subject to these new levies,” explains Bonzon.

This perspective aligns with the views of Samy Chaar, Chief Economist and CIO Switzerland at Lombard Odier, and Luca Bindelli, Head of Investment Strategy at the firm: “Trump’s White House is deeply challenging the post-1945 global order, but for now, policy initiatives are mostly aligned with campaign rhetoric. As a result, our baseline expectations for the U.S. economy and markets remain unchanged.”

Experts at EDM also note that despite macroeconomic and political uncertainties, equity investors have remained optimistic, pushing stock prices higher (S&P 500 +4.0%; MSCI World +3.6%). “However, gains are starting to be more diversified than in 2024, which was characterized by a strong concentration in tech-driven returns. Bond markets are seeing rising yields due to higher medium- and long-term inflation expectations, fueled by negative price adjustments. There is no doubt that concerns over the growing U.S. debt are behind this increased demand for higher returns,” EDM stated in its latest report.

Market Outlook

According to MFS IM, global equity markets have not yet fully priced in significant downside risks. The firm argues that, in general, tariffs—if implemented as currently expected—will negatively impact stocks, primarily reflecting concerns about a combination of slower global growth and higher interest rates. “This is evident in price action, or how stock prices reacted immediately after the U.S. announcement,” they explain. However, MFS IM emphasizes that when assessing broader market implications, it is crucial to differentiate between companies based on their export exposure.

Conversely, in fixed-income markets, MFS IM believes the risk of a trade war had already been fully priced into global bond markets. “One of the most pronounced transmission channels has been the currency markets, with the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso suffering sharp losses against the U.S. dollar. Both currencies have since recovered due to negotiations that delayed tariff implementation,” they acknowledge.

Regarding U.S. fixed income, MFS IM believes this latest development will likely further constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease policy in the future, given the potential impact of a one-off price adjustment on domestic inflation. “As a result, initial interest rates are likely to rise, triggering some flattening of the yield curve,” they indicate.

For Connor Fitzgerald and Schuyler Reece, fixed-income portfolio managers at Wellington Management, during times of market uncertainty, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets, causing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds to surge. “We believe the best time to consider Treasuries is before volatility hits. If fixed-income portfolios already contain U.S. Treasuries when negative market events occur, investors can dynamically rotate their allocations, anticipating the shift from credit to Treasuries, and execute transactions at potentially more attractive levels on both sides of the trade,” they argue.

Chaar adds: “We expect 10-year Treasury yields to settle around 4.5% over the next 12 months, suggesting limited pressure on equity valuations. We maintain our preference for corporate bonds, which should offer higher yields than government bonds for comparable maturities. In fact, U.S. corporate bonds should still benefit from a likely pro-growth agenda in the U.S. (through deregulation and tax cuts) and relatively stable spreads, whereas government bonds may continue to face challenges due to rising budget deficits and refinancing needs, increasing yield volatility.”

Flexible Portfolios

From a portfolio management perspective, the current situation underscores the importance of remaining flexible and maintaining composure in the face of volatility, as such periods are often accompanied by excessive noise and fluctuating headlines. “While we remain attentive to news flows, we do not believe current market movements have created opportunities for significant changes in our asset allocation,” states Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour AM (a Vontobel boutique).

Regarding long-term implications, Villarroel believes it is too early to determine how the balance of power will shift under Trump’s administration. “That said, we believe U.S. exceptionalism and its enduring status as a safe-haven asset and recipient of foreign capital are partly due to the predictability of its policies. Today, market sentiment on this has not changed, but there may come a point where investors start feeling uneasy. These characteristics are also factored into credit rating agencies’ assessments and influence the ongoing evaluation of a country’s AAA rating. We doubt rating agencies will react to Trump’s initial salvos; however, if tariffs remained in place, GDP growth assumptions would change, potentially triggering a review,” Villarroel concludes.

GAM Investments Hires a New European Equity Team

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GAM Investments y nuevo equipo de renta variable
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GAM Investments has announced the addition of three professionals from the European equity team at Janus Henderson Investors. According to the asset manager, “these strategic hires reinforce GAM’s commitment to providing clients with access to the highest quality in investment, along with exceptional results.”

The team will be led by Tom O’Hara, alongside Jamie Ross and David Barker, also from Janus Henderson. The three bring extensive experience, having managed over 6.5 billion euros in European equity funds for institutional and retail clients worldwide. According to the firm, these professionals will join GAM in the coming months.

Following the announcement, Tom O’Hara stated: “For decades, GAM has attracted some of the best talent in the industry for the benefit of its clients. Its strong track record in European equities has directly shaped my approach to investing. I take on this new challenge with pride and look forward to contributing to GAM’s sustainable long-term growth.”

Meanwhile, Elmar Zumbuehl, CEO of GAM Group, commented: “We are delighted to welcome Tom, Jamie, and David to GAM. We are confident that their extensive experience and proven investment success will be a valuable asset to our firm. Attracting such outstanding investment professionals highlights GAM’s distinctive and appealing culture, our strategy, and our long-term commitment.”

Trump’s Policy and Central Bank Demand: Bullish Factors for Gold

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Trump, bancos centrales y oro
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After a pause in December, gold reached new all-time highs, outperforming all other asset classes in 2024. This upward trend has continued in 2025, and by the end of January, gold had broken its own records, reaching $2,798.40 per ounce. According to experts, this strong performance is driven by its demand as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about the impact of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump’s administration on the global economy.

“Global gold demand was much stronger toward the end of last year than available data suggested. The World Gold Council’s demand trends for the fourth quarter of 2024 showed strong growth in investment demand and central bank purchases, which further reinforced bullish sentiment in the gold market and pushed prices to a new all-time high,” explains Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.

According to Ned Naylor-Leyland, investment manager for gold and silver at Jupiter AM, the gold market is currently in a bull phase, but the broader market has not yet fully participated, which suggests there is still room for further gains. He notes that gold mining companies have increased production and profit margins, but their stock prices have not risen at the same pace.

The Impact of Tariffs

According to Menke, global gold trade between the U.S. futures market and European physical markets could be affected by the tariffs Trump has threatened to impose. “This is creating uncertainty among gold traders and widening the price gap between New York and London. In theory, tariffs—if implemented—should not alter the long-term supply and demand balance in the global gold market or international benchmark prices. That said, if market imbalances arise in the short term due to tariffs, prices will need to signal the need to attract sufficient supplies to the U.S.,” he explains.

In this regard, Menke argues that the fundamental impact on global gold demand would be more related to prolonged trade tensions, which could be one of the bullish factors of Trump’s presidency. “Overall, we believe his administration could generate a wide range of possible outcomes, both bullish and bearish. Our outlook on gold remains positive, primarily based on the resumption of central bank purchases rather than Trump’s presidency,” he clarifies.

The Role of Central Banks

Another key factor supporting gold’s rally is that several major central banks, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and Sweden’s Riksbank, are implementing interest rate cuts, increasing gold’s appeal. Although the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates unchanged, investors anticipate two additional rate cuts this year, which could also support the metal’s price.

“Countries like China, India, and Turkey have increased their gold reserves to diversify assets at the expense of the U.S. dollar. Globally, central banks purchased 694 tons of gold in the first few months of the year; in November, the People’s Bank of China announced it would resume gold purchases after a six-month pause,” notes Diego Franzin, Head of Portfolio Strategies at Plenisfer Investments, part of Generali Investments.

According to Franzin, monetary policy decisions also play a crucial role in the gold market. “During the phase of rising interest rates, gold was the ultimate hedge against inflation, which monetary policies were fighting. In the current phase of rate cuts, gold continues to offer an alternative to other asset classes, although the cost-benefit ratio of holding gold has increased. Gold prices saw a slight dip after the Fed’s rate cut in December. However, it is worth noting that the U.S. central bank also indicated that next year’s rate cuts would be slower than previously expected,” he states.

Outlook

Considering these factors, some experts, such as Franzin, estimate that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce, supported by the continuation of the aforementioned trends and a potential resurgence of inflation driven by fiscal and trade policies under the new Trump administration. “There are also expectations of another increase in U.S. public debt,” he adds.

“Beyond central bank purchases, gold market demand has been largely driven by sophisticated investors, such as hedge funds and algorithmic traders, who have pushed gold futures higher,” adds the Jupiter AM manager.

At Plenisfer Investments, they believe that regardless of short-term price trends, gold will continue to play several key roles in an investment portfolio in 2025. *”It will remain a strong diversification element, helping to reduce portfolio volatility due to its low correlation with other assets. It will continue to offer protection against inflation, which historically occurs in waves and could persist, particularly in the U.S., above the levels currently expected by markets.

Lastly, it will remain a safe-haven asset in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty,” concludes Franzin.

Trump’s Tariff Game: Beware of Missteps and Noise

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Aranceles de Trump y su impacto económico
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One of the key recommendations made by international asset managers at the beginning of the year was the need to filter out the noise surrounding Donald Trump‘s approach to policymaking. The trade war launched by his administration, which has put the word “tariff” in most headlines since yesterday, is a clear example of why investment firms gave that advice.

If we look at the latest developments, China has imposed tariffs on U.S. products set to take effect on February 10. Specifically, it has announced a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied gas and a 10% tariff on oil, agricultural machinery, high-displacement cars, and pickup trucks. Canada’s response was similar, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing 25% tariffs on U.S. products. Meanwhile, after a “friendly” phone call with Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, Trump has decided to pause the 25% tariffs on the country for a month in exchange for a series of commitments on border and trade security.

Time to Negotiate?

According to experts, this first move in the trade war by all parties confirms what many had anticipated: tariffs will be used as a bargaining tool. “As we predicted, Trump is starting his term by using trade policy decisions as a shock weapon within a broader framework of future negotiations, allowing him to partially rebalance trade with some economies. We already saw this tactic during the NAFTA renegotiation when Trump’s threats to withdraw from the trade alliance successfully pressured for a new agreement,” state analysts at Banca March.

Experts at the firm believe that China, having already experienced a trade war, is less inclined to give in to such pressure. Trump is now expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days, raising hopes that both leaders may reach an agreement to avoid a new trade war.

For Damian McIntyre, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Federated Hermes, these announcements signal to the world that Trump is willing and able to use tariffs as a tool. “While this could ultimately be a negotiation tactic, it has the potential to reshape global investment narratives, including the need for higher risk premiums for countries he perceives as unfair players. Whether it’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions or AI and profits, investors face many risks in today’s market. We believe that investing in a globally diversified range of assets is one way for investors to maintain strong and resilient portfolios,” says McIntyre.

In this context, asset managers are focusing on the imbalances in public accounts and their impact on national economies. “Contrary to what Trump’s rhetoric suggests, it is not the exporting countries that pay the tariffs. U.S. importing companies pay these tariffs to the Treasury. Mechanically, the first impact will be on U.S. companies. For the end consumer, an increase in customs duties has a macroeconomic effect similar to that of a tax hike. It has a temporary impact on inflation and a downward effect on demand, which tends to push prices lower. The main risk, therefore, is a demand-driven growth shock rather than an inflation shock,” explains Enguerrand Artaz, analyst at La Financière de l’Échiquier.

“Trump knows that an open trade war would mean higher inflation for the average U.S. citizen, something he will likely want to avoid in the end. Meanwhile, we must get used to a more volatile 2025 than the previous year, where risk assets, particularly fixed income, will continue to offer attractive entry opportunities,” say analysts at Banca March.

Market Reactions

The first two days following these announcements have also provided insight into how markets are digesting the possibility of a new trade war. According to Robeco, the swift execution of Trump’s tariff threats surprised markets, causing volatility in equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar surged. “After Trump abruptly withdrew his threat of general tariffs on Colombia earlier last week following a migrant deportation deal, the market was convinced that Trump’s bite would be softer than his bark,” says Peter van der Welle, Strategist for Sustainable Multi-Asset Solutions at Robeco.

Van der Welle believes that the latest tariff announcements on Canada and Mexico show that Trump’s bite is primarily tied to his willingness to seal a border security deal and achieve his political goal of restricting migration. “With markets now forced to guess Trump’s next trade policy moves, U.S. trade policy uncertainty has reached its highest level in 40 years, except for the summer of 2019, when the U.S.-China trade war was at its peak. We expect market volatility to remain high in the short term, reflecting a significant risk of another major trade announcement targeting China, Europe, and/or Japan,” he notes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Michael Medeiros, macroeconomic strategist at Wellington Management, believes that the most important factor for investors to consider in this situation is the increased likelihood of higher inflation volatility, a lower probability of supply-side improvements in the economy, and the significant link between tariff revenues and tax cuts through budget reconciliation. “These tariffs represent Trump delivering on his campaign promises. He is doing what he said he would do, and that is another key factor to keep in mind,” says Medeiros.

Economists at BofA agree that using tariffs as a bargaining tool has increased trade policy uncertainty and expect this trend to continue. “For markets, we see three key takeaways: the U.S. administration is transactional—nothing is final until it’s signed; U.S. economic policy threats should be taken seriously and literally; and the U.S. ‘bailout’ policy may be further from financial relief than the market expects. Investors have suggested that the stock market serves as the U.S. administration’s performance marker and that any policy shift affecting risk assets will be quickly reversed. We advise caution,” they state in their latest report.

The Fed Will Subject 22 Banking Institutions to Its Stress Test in 2025

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Fed y pruebas de estrés bancario 2025
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On Wednesday, the Fed published the hypothetical scenarios for its annual stress test, in which 22 banks will be tested against a severe global recession, increased strain in commercial and residential real estate markets, and corporate debt market stress, according to a statement.

While the scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as predictions of future economic conditions, the test incorporates various macroeconomic data points.

For example, the test assumes that the U.S. unemployment rate rises by nearly 5.9 percentage points, reaching a peak of 10%. This increase in unemployment is accompanied by high market volatility, widening corporate bond spreads, and a sharp decline in asset prices, including an approximate 33% drop in home prices and a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices, according to the Fed‘s statement.

Additionally, “large banks with significant trading or custody operations are also required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario component to estimate potential losses from the unexpected default of the firm’s largest counterparty amid a severe market disruption.” Meanwhile, banks with major trading operations will undergo a test featuring a global market shock component, primarily affecting their trading positions and related activities.

The following table outlines the components of the annual stress test applied to each bank, based on data from the third quarter of 2024:

This year’s exploratory analysis includes two separate hypothetical elements designed to evaluate the banking system’s resilience to a broader range of risks. One element examines how banks would respond to credit and liquidity disruptions in the non-bank financial institution sector during a severe global recession.

The second component of the exploratory analysis involves a market shock scenario that will apply only to the largest and most complex banks. This scenario hypothesizes the failure of five major hedge funds, combined with a decline in global economic activity and rising inflation.

Unlike the stress test, the exploratory analysis is designed to assess additional hypothetical risks to the banking system as a whole, rather than focusing on the specific outcomes for each individual bank. The Fed will publish aggregated results from the exploratory analysis alongside the annual stress test results in June 2025.

The Fed plans to take steps soon to reduce the volatility of stress test results and begin improving the transparency of the models used in the 2025 tests. Additionally, the Fed intends to initiate a public comment process this year regarding its comprehensive changes to the stress testing framework.

The annual stress test evaluates the resilience of large banks by estimating their losses, net income, and capital levels—which serve as a buffer against losses—under hypothetical recession scenarios that extend two years into the future.

Interest in ESG Criteria Declines but Remains Strong Among Retail Investors

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Interest in investment products with ESG criteria has stagnated over the past two years, even among younger investors, who have historically been the most enthusiastic about these strategies. However, there is still a significant opportunity for advisory services related to broader ESG investment principles, according to the Cerulli Edge – The Americas Asset and Wealth Management report.

Preference for ESG investing declined slightly in 2023, falling from 48% to 46%, amid increasing political and financial scrutiny. However, investors under 40 remain the most passionate about ESG-related issues, with 66% still preferring conscious investment in this category—down from 72% the previous year—marking a second consecutive year of declining interest. Meanwhile, households over 50 maintain a 44% support rate, with 13% expressing strong support.

However, “there is still a great opportunity for advisory services, particularly among Millennials, who are becoming wealthier and more likely to seek formal financial advice than in previous years,” adds the international consultancy firm.

The Cerulli study reveals that 49% of investors still prefer not to invest in companies that manufacture products they consider “objectionable.” This includes 42% of self-directed investors, who likely research these companies before making investment decisions.

While the desire to avoid questionable companies is strongest among those with less than $250,000 in investable assets (54%), it remains relatively popular across all asset levels. Investors with between $1 million and $2 million in investable assets are the least likely (46%) to actively hold this preference.

Meanwhile, 67% of investors say they prefer to invest in companies that pay their workers a fair or living wage.

“There remains a significant population of investors who value ESG criteria, particularly those focused on environmental issues and fair wages, even if they wouldn’t otherwise identify as ESG investors,” said Scott Smith, director at Cerulli. “This creates an opportunity for both advisors and providers to help interested clients find investments aligned with these values, offering a more personalized portfolio solution while also deepening their understanding of clients beyond a purely transactional relationship,” he concluded.