KKR Acquires Janney Montgomery Scott

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EBW Capital and AIS Financial form strategic alliance

KKR and The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company announced the signing of a definitive agreement under which investment funds managed by KKR will acquire Janney Montgomery Scott LLC.

Founded in 1832, Janney is a wealth management, investment banking, and asset management firm. It has over $150 billion in AUMs, with more than 900 financial advisors providing financial planning, asset allocation, retirement planning, and other financial services and advice to clients in 135 offices across the U.S.

After the transaction closes, Janney will become an independent private company that will continue to operate autonomously.

“We are excited to enter this next chapter in our nearly 200-year history with a new value-added strategic partner. KKR has demonstrated that they value our client- and advisor-centric culture and share our strong belief in the tremendous opportunities ahead for our business,” said Tony Miller, president of Janney.

Additionally, Chris Harrington, a partner at KKR, commented that Janney’s brand and culture were fundamental to the agreement’s closure.

“Janney’s respected brand, client-centric culture, and strong growth track record have established it as a first-class business that we believe is well-positioned to benefit from the significant tailwinds driving demand in the U.S. wealth management market,” said Harrington.

KKR will support Janney in creating a broad equity ownership program to provide the firm’s 2,300 employees the opportunity to participate in the benefits of ownership after the transaction closes.

This strategy is based on the belief that team member participation through ownership is a key driver in building stronger companies. Since 2011, more than 50 KKR portfolio companies have awarded billions of dollars in total equity value to over 100,000 non-management employees, according to the text published by the firm.

The transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024. KKR is making its investment in Janney primarily through its North America Fund XIII.

Ardea Partners acted as financial advisor, and Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP acted as legal advisors to KKR. WilmerHale acted as legal advisor to Penn Mutual.

Citadel Presents a Real Estate Project for Its Land in Brickell

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The hedge fund Citadel has finally presented a real estate project for its property at 1201 Brickell Bay Drive.

Representatives of the $51 billion fund submitted a real estate project to the Miami-Dade County office, which includes a tower designated for office space, a hotel, and shopping, along with a health center and a gym, as reported by the local press.

Neisen Kasdin, co-managing partner at the law firm Akerman in Miami, filed the application on Friday to meet with county officials and discuss the approval process for developments within a rapid transit zone. This regulation, managed by the county, allows for higher density and reduced parking requirements for projects near transit stops, according to Bisnow.

The firm moved its headquarters from Chicago in 2022 after its founder, Ken Griffin, relocated to South Florida.

Citadel spent a then-record $363 million in April 2022 to acquire the more than 10,000-square-meter waterfront site in Miami’s financial district. The hedge fund purchased the property through a Chicago-based entity.

“I am excited to have recently moved to Miami with my family and look forward to rapidly expanding Citadel in such a diverse and vibrant city,” Griffin wrote to employees in 2022, announcing the move in a note reported by the international agency Reuters.

The firm employs around 4,000 people in 17 offices worldwide, with 1,000 working at its Illinois headquarters.

Citadel executives have expressed concerns about crime in Chicago, Reuters reported.

The 830 Brickell Tower Secures $565 Million in Financing

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The office tower at 830 Brickell Avenue has secured a $565 million mortgage ahead of its delivery, announced its developers OKO Group and Cain International, according to local press.

The firms obtained the long-term loan from Tyko Capital for the tower located in Miami’s financial district.

The permanent financing replaces a $357 million loan from MSD Partners, the investment fund backed by Michael Dell. The loan was originated for $300 million in 2019 and was increased to its final balance last July.

“830 Brickell is the first office building to be constructed in the area in over 10 years and brings a premium commercial offering to the heart of Miami’s financial district. A truly unique addition to Miami’s skyline, this iconic tower offers unparalleled accommodation to the world’s leading companies,” says the project description on its website.

The nearly 60,000 square meter tower, initially scheduled for delivery in 2022, became the city’s first trophy office tower in a decade and has been fully leased for over a year, reported local outlet Bisnow. They explain that Tyko is a joint venture between Surya Capital Partners CEO Adi Chugh and the hedge fund Elliott Investment Management, which relocated its headquarters to West Palm Beach in 2020.

The 57-story building began construction in 2020 and became a magnet during the pandemic for high-profile companies relocating from other states or opening branches in South Florida.

More than 90% of its tenants will open their first office in Miami, according to a statement, Bisnow adds.

In addition to Citadel, which recently subleased two floors to expand to eight floors, Microsoft signed a lease for 15,240 square meters in the tower in September 2021, nearly a year before Citadel announced it would relocate its headquarters from Chicago to Miami.

Santander Private Banking offices will also be installed, along with law firms such as Kirkland & Ellis, which occupied six floors before subleasing two to Citadel, and Winston & Strawn, which leased 35,000 square meters.

The venture capital firm Thoma Bravo, insurance brokerage Marsh, wealth management firm CI Financial, and New York financial firm A-Cap also have space in the tower.

J.P. Morgan AM Appoints new Head of Real Estate Americas Portfolio Strategy

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Nuevos codirectores en Barings

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has hired Josh Myerberg as Head of Real Estate Portfolio Strategy for the U.S.

In his new role, Myerberg will lead the company’s real estate investment strategy in the region.

With over 20 years of experience in the real estate investment industry, Myerberg joins J.P. Morgan from Morgan Stanley, where he held the position of CIO and Deputy Portfolio Manager of the firm’s largest real estate fund, according to the company’s statement. In his new role, he will lead portfolio strategy, oversee the core and core plus real estate teams, and manage the Strategic Property, Special Situation Property, and U.S. Real Estate Income & Growth strategies.

“Josh’s track record, two decades of experience, and strategic vision will be crucial for driving the growth and positioning of our equity funds. The real estate franchise is extremely well-positioned for growth,” said Mr. Tredway. “We are experiencing significant momentum in our U.S. business, and this new role will further consolidate our industry leadership,” commented Chad Tredway, Head of Real Estate Americas, to whom Myerberg will report directly.

Myerberg’s career began in the Real Estate Investment Banking group at Bank of America Securities and at First Union Securities. He is an active member of ULI, serves as Chairman and is a member of the NAREIM Board, and is a member of the Real Estate Round Table.

What is Trumponomics?

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Markets are increasingly attentive to the economic proposals of the Republican candidate for the U.S. presidency, Donald Trump, and their implications not only for the country but also for the global economy. Barclays Bank presents an analysis to evaluate what it calls Trumponomics, referring to the economy under a possible Trump presidency.

Higher tariffs, reductions in corporate taxes, restrictions on migration to the United States, and more protectionism are some of the bases of the economic program proposed by Trump.

Often, their immediate effect could be partially offset by countermeasures (e.g., retaliatory tariffs), exchange rate adjustments, and substitution effects, which in turn depend on supply and demand elasticities, not known beforehand.

However, the firm indicates that it seems fair to say that a combination of higher trade tariffs and reduced migration are, in principle, negative supply shocks with inflationary consequences. At the same time, lower taxes without equivalent spending cuts would primarily stimulate demand (though potentially with some positive supply effects as well).

This would point to a U.S. economy with strong (real) growth but also greater inflationary pressures. This means: a rapid expansion of nominal GDP, with higher nominal interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar as an exchange currency.

Deregulation could offset inflationary pressures to the extent that it translates into a positive supply shock and increased productivity, although such effects traditionally take time, Barclays noted.

The financial firm provided a summary of the key policy proposals that have emerged so far and some of their macroeconomic implications:

Higher Tariffs

Trump has been vocal about his perception of unfair global trade, particularly focusing on countries with which the United States has large bilateral trade deficits (such as China and the European Union). He and his team, centered around former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, have suggested implementing a 10% tariff on all imports to the United States and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. If implemented, this would raise the average U.S. tariff to the highest level since the 1950s, marking a significant departure from the post-World War II global trade regime.

Lower Taxes

Trump described his economic doctrine as “low interest rates and low taxes.” Therefore, it is very likely that a Trump administration would extend its 2017 tax cuts. He has also pledged to further reduce the corporate income tax cost from 21% to 20%, and in an interview with Bloomberg, he floated the idea of lowering it to 15%, although he admitted that “this would be difficult.”

Less Migration

Trump has promised to reduce immigration, which reached a record level in 2023. Immigration flows have been a key source of American exceptionalism during the post-pandemic period, providing a strong tailwind for aggregate supply that has helped sustain disinflation amid solid consumption-driven expansion. Policies to curb the flow of asylum seekers would reduce labor supply and growth.

Less Regulation

The Trump administration would likely take a significantly different approach from the Democrats, particularly regarding energy and the environment. The effects of this could be complex. For example, expanding oil production could be a positive supply shock, but slower adoption of electric vehicles would increase oil demand. In any case, a limited effect on oil market fundamentals is expected in the short term. Similarly, reducing bureaucracy could facilitate business operations, but repealing some laws could affect investment and employment.

Realigned Geopolitics

There are potentially significant changes from current policies that markets cannot ignore. First, Trump and JD Vance (vice presidential candidate) openly talk about ending the war in Ukraine by withdrawing support for Ukraine and thus forcing an agreement with Russia. Secondly, they maintain their anti-China views, but Trump has raised doubts about the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan. Thirdly, in the Middle East, Trump would likely refocus on strong relations with Saudi Arabia.

A general theme that seems certain is that under Trump’s presidency, the United States would expect its allies, whether Europe or Taiwan, to “pay” or rely less on the protection provided by the United States.

The eventual return of the businessman and reality TV star to the U.S. presidency, which seems increasingly likely, would bid farewell to Bidenomics, the costly experiment of industrial subsidies and protectionism, said Barclays, but Trumponomics would arrive, with effects and consequences still unknown for the United States and the entire world.

Strategies in Soles Lead the Growth in the Boom of Mutual Funds in Peru

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The mutual fund industry is experiencing a favorable moment in Peru, showing promising growth figures at the end of the first half of 2024. One contributing factor is increased investor confidence in the local economy, highlighted by Credicorp Capital Sociedad Administradora de Fondos (SAF), which is reflected in a growth in strategies in soles that surpasses those in dollars.

The market reached 40 billion soles (approximately $10.65 billion) as of June this year, according to a presentation shared by the manager with the press. This represents a growth of 58% since mid-2023.

In the presentation, Óscar Zapata, General Manager of Credicorp Capital SAF, emphasized that –isolating the exchange rate effect– the fund market in soles grew more than 30% in the period, while dollar strategies registered an increase of 20%.

What explains the boom in the industry in the Andean country? According to the manager’s analysis, 35% of the overall market growth comes from fund appreciation –with better fund returns– and the exchange rate effect. The remaining 65%, they estimate, comes from new client balances, noting a year-over-year growth of more than 10% in participants.

Better Conditions

Regarding the increased interest of local investors, Zapata highlighted two key variables: interest rates and confidence in Peru.

From the perspective of interest rates, Credicorp Capital points out that the scenario of decreasing rates makes mutual funds a more attractive option –in terms of profitability– than other savings alternatives. This is in a context where the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) has been gradually lowering reference rates from the peak they held during most of 2023, from 7.75% to the current 5.75%.

Additionally, Zapata explained, there is greater client confidence in the local economy, which promotes the investment of resources through local fund management, rather than various investment options abroad. Reflecting this, he noted, is the more marked boom in vehicles in soles versus dollars.

Looking ahead, Credicorp Capital SAF expects the mutual fund market to continue growing in the second half of the year. They estimate that the industry should close the year with assets above 45 billion soles (approximately $12 billion). This is explained by the anticipated economic reactivation in the second half of the year and further rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the BCRP.

BlackRock Bets on Japan, AI, Quality Companies, Emerging Markets, and Europe

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BlackRock has focused on the real economy in its investment strategy for the second half of 2024. This was acknowledged by Javier García Díaz, Head of Sales for Iberia at BlackRock, during the firm’s presentation of its outlook for the second half of the year.

“We are in interesting times with challenges and opportunities for investors,” said García Díaz, who admitted that the firm shows a preference for risk “but with control” and that one must be alert to the opportunities that will emerge in this new economic regime. “Resources are currently being invested in major economic forces, such as artificial intelligence or deglobalization, which generate winners and losers,” he said.

The bet on the real economy is reflected in the opportunities the firm sees in data centers for artificial intelligence, “which will grow between 60% and 100% in the coming years”; also in the energy transition, with needs amounting to $3.5 trillion, and the reconfiguration of supply chains. “The real economy is gaining ground over the financial economy, benefiting infrastructure and industry,” the expert noted.

Risk, according to García Díaz, should be “tactical,” and it’s a good time to invest, characterized by below-trend growth, above-average inflation data, high debt, and elevated interest rates.

The equity positioning – an asset that has been performing well this year due to technology and good corporate earnings – focuses on Japan, artificial intelligence, quality companies, emerging markets – albeit selectively – and, tentatively, Europe.

1. Japan: The country is favored, according to the BlackRock expert, by a more favorable monetary policy, an economic recovery, healthy inflation, and structural reforms for shareholders and investors. “We advise allocating 10% of the total portfolio to Japan,” said García Díaz.

2. Artificial Intelligence: “We continue to overweight this sector and increase our conviction,” said the expert, who relies on the strong profits of these companies. “We believe we are still in a very early stage of AI; tech companies are investing heavily, and in future phases, telecommunications, healthcare, and finance will incorporate AI into their development, eventually permeating the real economy,” he assured. García Díaz revealed that AI will add 1.5 percentage points per year to the US GDP in the future.

Opportunities in this sector, according to the expert, are in data protection and cybersecurity; infrastructure such as data centers, semiconductors, and cooling; and finally, energy, due to the high consumption of this technology.

However, he also disclosed risks such as the capacity of the electrical grid to meet energy demand; regulation, or potential bottlenecks in the supply and production of metals necessary for artificial intelligence, like copper.

3. Quality Companies: Companies with healthy balance sheets and investment capacity are BlackRock’s main targets. These are abundant, according to the firm, in technology and the luxury sector.

4. Emerging Markets: The position García Díaz advises in emerging markets is “selective,” with India as the main protagonist, following the recent elections won by President Narendra Modi. “There has been volatility in the Indian market, but we value its young population; there is strong investment in supply chains, and there is a flow of equity ETFs into the country,” he said. His bet on India includes not only the stock market but also the country’s fixed income.

5. Europe: The firm’s positioning in Europe is still “tentative.” In this region, there are notable aspects, according to García Díaz, such as a better situation in the banking sector; the automotive industry weighs less in the indexes than in the past, and international companies are now better. “We are cautiously optimistic: we prefer banks, healthcare, and luxury in Europe,” the expert affirmed.

In fixed income, the firm overweights US short-term bonds and is increasing duration in European fixed income, considering that the ECB has already lowered interest rates and that inflation in the US remains elevated. The positioning is neutral in credit – both investment grade and high yield – while being selective with emerging markets, again favoring India as the preferred market.

Alternative markets are another of BlackRock’s bets due to the strong expected growth: in the coming years, assets will double. This growth, according to the expert, would come from easier access to such assets through products like Eltifs, technological improvements, and the progressive reduction of listed companies – since 2009, there are 20% fewer companies on global stock exchanges. “It’s a clear bet, as demonstrated by BlackRock’s last two corporate acquisitions: the GIP investment fund and the private markets data provider Preqin.”

The SEC Approves the MIAX Sapphire Exchange Platform

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Miami International Holdings (MIH) announced that the SEC has approved the application for MIAX Sapphire as a national securities exchange.

MIAX Sapphire will be MIAX’s fourth national stock exchange for listed options in multiple U.S. markets and will operate both an electronic exchange and a physical trading floor.

The electronic exchange is expected to launch on August 12, 2024, and the physical trading floor is set to open in 2025, according to the firm’s statement.

The MIAX Sapphire trading floor will be the first national stock exchange to establish operations in Miami, Florida, and will include a state-of-the-art trading floor, additional office space for MIAX employees and market participants, conference facilities, and media space.

“The launch of MIAX Sapphire provides our members, liquidity providers, and market makers with a new exchange designed to meet their evolving demands for better access to options liquidity,” said Thomas P. Gallagher, Chairman and CEO of MIH.

This system “also offers our market participants access to 100% of the listed options market in multiple markets, all supported by our proprietary technology designed to enhance liquidity and promote better price discovery,” he added.

MIAX Sapphire will utilize Taker-Maker pricing and a Price-Time allocation model while leveraging existing MIAX-based technology and infrastructure, allowing current MIAX Exchange members to access the new exchange with minimal additional technological effort, the firm explains.

Venture Capital Investment Grew by 16% in the First Quarter Due to the Funding Needs of AI Companies

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The latest study by Bain & Company reveals that venture capital investment reached $89 billion globally (spread across more than 4,600 transactions) during the first quarter of 2024, representing a 16% increase compared to the last quarter of 2023. The consulting firm notes that generative artificial intelligence (AI) continues to dominate the venture capital landscape, given that large language models have a high need for funding.

According to the report, the United States led this growth, with a 72% increase compared to the previous quarter, driven by investments in technology, AI, energy, and healthcare. China also recorded a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13%, mainly due to the automotive and AI sectors. In contrast, Europe experienced a 28% decline in funding due to macroeconomic uncertainty and the technical recession in the United Kingdom.

The average size of venture capital deals increased across all funding stages. Early-stage investments grew by 43%, while seed-stage deals rose by 17%. In late-stage deals, the increase was 21%. Bain & Company particularly highlights the growth of Series B stage deals – when companies seek to expand their market reach – driven by sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and healthcare.

Additionally, the study indicates that while the number of Corporate Venture Capital investors remained stable, the deals funded by these investment vehicles increased significantly in the first quarter of 2024. This growth was particularly notable in the early-stage and seed stages, especially in sectors like energy, AI, and healthcare.

Alvaro Pires, partner at Bain & Company, adds: “More and more non-tech private equity firms are joining the generative AI trend. LG Technology Ventures, CVS Health Ventures, and Capital One Ventures led this activity globally in the past year. Moreover, we have observed significant growth in the collaborations these companies establish with some startups to incorporate generative AI into their customer experience.”

Harris vs Trump: What Does the Market Expect?

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The resignation of U.S. President Joe Biden from seeking re-election has further increased uncertainty in an already tumultuous geopolitical landscape for this year. Therefore, it is important to know the opinions of market leaders on how they expect the path to the national elections to unfold.

Although Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy is not fully confirmed, considering that the Democratic convention will be held in mid-August, the politician who has already received support from President Biden seems to be the favorite.

In the improvised selection of candidates that has emerged following Biden’s resignation, Harris is the betting favorite and has gained support from her party members in the last 24 hours. For example, at least 20 governors, 41 senators, and 181 representatives have endorsed Harris, according to a count by the New York Times, and the local press highlights over $81 million in donations for her campaign.

The market eagerly awaits the decision and the first polls on how these changes might affect former President Donald Trump, currently the betting favorite to win.

According to Ray Grenier, CEO of Bolton Global Capital, the Democrats have a better chance of winning with Harris. The head of the independent advisory network noted that with Biden, the chances of winning were very low “due to his evident decline in mental capabilities.”

In that regard, the executive commented that a potential Democratic victory with Harris at the helm—whom he believes has a high chance of being the candidate—would impact the markets in areas such as the expiration of the tax cuts implemented by Trump, the continuation of the green political agenda, and a bias towards increased regulation.

On the other hand, Biden’s resignation could boost former President Trump’s standing in the polls and benefit market sectors that have been anticipating higher chances of a Republican sweep in November, such as the financial and energy sectors, said Saira Malik, CIO of Nuveen.

If the opposite occurs, it could benefit more globally focused areas. In any case, “we expect greater short-term volatility due to this political uncertainty. One thing seems certain: there will be more twists and turns on the political roller coaster in the coming months,” she opined.

Additionally, the wave of weaker-than-expected economic data last week, following the release of lower-than-forecast CPI inflation for June the previous week, increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed, the CIO of the asset manager added.

Portfolio Considerations

With heightened expectations of an early start to the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, now seems like an especially opportune time to consider extending the portfolio’s duration by shifting some assets from short-term bonds and cash, complemented by allocations to diversified credit exposure, recommends Malik.

This could help investors reduce reinvestment risk, increase income potential, and provide a cushion against rate volatility. And with real yields—nominal yields minus taxes and inflation—in cash equivalents, investors might find sectors offering real yields and total return potential much more attractive than cash if U.S. Treasury yields decrease from here, as we forecast, concludes the Nuveen report.