Neither Recession, Nor Bear Market, Nor Hard Landing: It’s Just Volatility

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Markets are recovering. In this context of calm, investment firms insist that stock market volatility is normal, even though we had become accustomed to its absence.

“The S&P 500 has retreated more than 8% since its peak on July 16, which is not unusual. In fact, we have seen 5% or more contractions occur on average three times per year since the 1930s. As for corrections of 10% or more, they have happened once a year, and indeed we are on schedule, as the last correction was in the fall of 2023,” Bank of America noted in its report yesterday.

According to the bank’s analysts, a full bear market (a drop of 20% or more), is unlikely: only 50% of the signals that historically preceded S&P 500 peaks have been triggered, compared to an average of 70% before previous market peaks. “Bear markets have historically occurred once every three to four years on average, and the last one was from January to October 2022. Despite growing recession concerns due to weaker economic data, our economists expect a soft landing, do not anticipate recession-sized rate cuts, and forecast the first cut in September,” they add.

Schroders echoes this message: sharp declines are not particularly unusual in equity markets. “In recent days, there has been a sharp sell-off in stocks, which has hit consensus and crowded trades hard. However, this should be seen in the context of exceptionally strong equity markets since October 2023 – by mid-July, the MSCI All-Country World Index had risen about 32% from its October lows – and a correction is perfectly healthy and normal,” reiterates Simon Webber, Head of Global Equities at Schroders.

Enguerrand Artaz, fund manager at La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE), shares this view, explaining that the correction occurred in the context of very bullish markets and large accumulations of speculative positions, including short positions on the yen. “The sudden liquidation of these positions, combined with traditionally more limited summer liquidity, likely amplified market movements,” he explains. And he adds: “The market capitulation of recent days seems particularly exacerbated, although some of the triggers should be taken seriously. Therefore, at this time, it seems important to adopt a cautious approach without overreacting to short-term movements.”

Moreover, for most asset managers, a soft landing in the U.S. remains the most plausible scenario. “Market anxiety is understandable, especially after the pace of economic growth slowed and price pressures experienced a widespread relaxation. We expect this trend to continue and its dynamics to moderate through the end of the year. This means that the risk of recession is increasing, but not to levels that concern us. It is unlikely that growth will plummet and economic fundamentals remain quite solid. Consumer and business finances appear quite healthy. Our working hypothesis remains a soft landing, with a 55% probability, and we manage a 30% probability of recession,” says Fidelity International’s Global Macroeconomics and Asset Allocation team.

“Looking at equity markets in general, we would say that investors have become more attentive to the condition of the U.S. economy and whether the Fed might be lagging in its interest rate strategy. In recent days, markets have adopted a risk-off mode, as investors worry about growth and employment. In such circumstances, areas of the market where investors’ funds are most concentrated tend to be the hardest hit,” conclude Shuntaro Takeuchi and Michael J. Oh, portfolio managers at Matthews Asia.

Central Banks’ Response

In this market event, we have seen old and new habits. Undoubtedly, “the old” is getting used to living with volatility again and “the new” is the strong intervention of central banks every time the market hiccups (a reality we have lived with for the past ten years). Evidence of the latter is that the tranquility of Asian markets has come from the Bank of Japan, whose deputy governor came out yesterday to announce that he will not raise interest rates further if markets are unstable.

According to Bloomberg, this reassured anxious investors. “The comments provided much-needed reassurance at a time when many are still worried that the yen carry trade reversal has further to go,” they note.

In the case of the Fed, the debate is whether it is taking too long to cut rates. “The problem is that in June the Fed only announced one rate cut this year. This was too aggressive and prevented it from acting quickly in July. The Fed could cut 50 basis points in September to make up for lost time. But the market is now pricing in five cuts in 2024, which is an overreaction,” explains George Brown, Senior U.S. Economist at Schroders.

Fidelity International experts expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December. “In any case, we won’t know the severity of the risks emanating from financial markets until it’s too late, which could then justify a strong central bank response. That means we can’t rule out the possibility of more and bigger rate cuts (up to 50 bps) if financial conditions tighten further. The Fed could issue an official statement to quell the market’s most immediate concerns, stating that it is monitoring developments and ready to act if market turmoil begins to affect liquidity and monetary policy outlooks,” they argue.

According to the U.S. asset manager Muzinich & Co, it seems that the market is realizing two things. On the one hand, the Fed is behind in cutting interest rates, and the effects of its inaction this year are negatively impacting many sectors of the economy.

“Investors should expect a Fed reaction: at the time of writing, rate cut expectations stand at 50 basis points for September and November, and a 25 basis point cut in December,” they point out. Additionally, they note that “investor overexuberance and perhaps lack of attention to fundamental variables have led to excessive valuations in some sectors, especially in the stock market.”

Finally, Paolo Zanghieri, Senior Economist at Generali AM, part of the Generali Investments ecosystem, incorporates the eurozone scenario, as it was the first to publish its quarterly GDP. “Despite the persistent strength of inflation data, lower inflation expectations (based on the market) and fears of global growth have prompted a sharp revision of ECB rate cuts. At the time of writing, markets expect three more 25 basis point cuts this year (from the current 3.75%) and place the deposit rate at 2% by the end of 2025.

This pessimistic view implies a rapid return to the inflation target, something we only consider consistent with a recessionary evolution. We maintain our view of an official interest rate of 2.5% by the end of 2025,” he indicates.

Alternative Providers Are Increasingly Partnering to Capture Retail Assets

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Alternative product providers estimate that only 13% of their managed assets come from the retail channel but expect this to increase to 23% in the next three years, according to The Cerulli Report-U.S. Alternative Investments 2024.

Cerulli estimates that U.S. financial advisors hold $1.4 trillion in alternative investment assets that are not fully liquid and forecasts this total will increase to $2.5 trillion by the end of 2028.

To seize this trillion-dollar opportunity, alternative product providers and asset managers are increasingly partnering through strategic alliances.

53% of asset managers say they currently rely on such partnerships, and half plan to increase this dependency.

“Strategic partnerships allow alternative product providers and asset managers to leverage each other’s strengths to reach new client segments that neither firm could have reached alone,” says Daniil Shapiro, director.

As partnerships proliferate, demand and development for multi-manager products have resurged, simplifying the way all investors, except the wealthiest, access alternative exposures, the consulting firm’s statement adds.

According to the study, multi-manager products can gain traction among a range of investors below the wealth levels of over $20 million (UHNW) and over $5 million (HNW), and allow access for advisors looking to venture into the alternative investment landscape with simplified solutions.

“Investors are looking for easy access solutions to alternatives where a single ticket allows them to access the broader universe of alternatives or multiple exposures within a sub-asset class of alternatives (e.g., different types of private credit). Advisors using such products are likely to help their clients take the first steps in allocating to alternative investments,” Shapiro states.

While alliances offer alternative product providers a legitimate pathway to retail assets, the risks of partnerships must be carefully considered, such as cultural clashes, overestimation of partners’ distribution capabilities, and the brand’s and exposures’ ability to resonate with advisors.

“Distribution synergies between channels should be examined, and future product roadmaps should be considered to ensure product-market fit,” Shapiro concludes.

The Disinflationary Process in Latin America Is Not Stable, Warns Julius Baer

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The disinflation observed globally after the peaks reached in late 2021 and early 2022 is a reality. However, there are recognized risks from central banks and processes that are not uniform. Latin America, with a history of general price pressures, is currently experiencing a disinflationary process that is not stable, warns Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Analyst at Julius Baer, in a report for their clients.

According to the specialist, price pressures continue to emerge in the region, generating instability in the disinflationary process. Although it is not a unique problem for Latin America, it is a concerning factor given the region’s history in this area, according to the European investment bank.

Central Banks Will Be Cautious

The Julius Baer expert highlights observations from several representative economies to explain the disinflationary instability in Latin America. For example, in Colombia, inflation rose marginally in June, mainly due to food prices but also due to rental inflation. The figure is still above the central bank’s inflation target range, and it is likely to be cautious in cutting rates in upcoming meetings.

In Chile, inflation also increased year-on-year, primarily due to food prices and an increase in electricity prices. Therefore, Tsekeridou considers it likely that the central bank of the Andean country will maintain a cautious tone in its next monetary policy meeting due to uncertainty about the direct and indirect impact of electricity price increases in the coming months.

The two largest economies in the region are no exception to this unstable disinflationary process. In Brazil, overall inflation increased year-on-year in June, approaching the upper level of the central bank’s target (3% ± 1.5%), although it was lower than expected after the floods in Rio Grande do Sul and currency depreciation. It is expected that the country’s central bank will maintain the Selic policy rate at 10.5% to keep inflation expectations anchored.

In Mexico, overall inflation also increased in June, mainly due to fruits and vegetables, although core inflation continued its decline. The increase could keep the central bank’s tone cautious, although a 25 basis point cut in August is not excluded to avoid an economic slowdown.

Finally, in the beleaguered economy of Argentina, the news is not much different: overall inflation continues to decrease both year-on-year and month-on-month. The slowdown in inflation should continue due to austerity measures and currency devaluation.

Julius Baer warns that, in general, June inflation data for Latin America show that the disinflation process is no longer smooth; it has some bumps. From their perspective, the region’s central banks will mostly maintain a cautious stance in their upcoming meetings and anticipate that expansion cycles will slow down or stop in 2024 to control inflation and keep inflation expectations anchored.

However, the first rate cut by the Fed, expected by the end of this year, should support performance.

Under the outlined scenario, Julius Baer maintains its overweight position in Latin American equities and corporate debt in strong currency.

Nervousness Causes Market Collapse: Was it Really That Bad?

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U.S. employment data and the rate hike by the Bank of Japan sparked widespread nervousness worldwide, leading to declines in all major global stock markets. However, the question that arises for analysis is whether the dramatism of the chain sales was premature and whether what is happening this Monday is just a temporary “perfect storm.”

For James Eagle, founder of Eeagli, it was a perfect storm based on inflation fears, less hope for interest rate cuts, concerns about the upcoming U.S. elections, and global tensions, as he posted on LinkedIn. Additionally, the renowned content creator said that if you add to that scenario that some tech stocks have reached all-time highs, you get an ideal recipe for market nervousness.

“All you need now is an excuse to panic. And we got it,” Eagle summarized.

On the other hand, Tiffany Wilding, an economist at PIMCO, reviewed the employment data released last week, with a figure lower than “expected and further proof that the U.S. economy is slowing down,” she said in a statement accessed by Funds Society. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.25% unrounded, nearly reaching the so-called Sahm rule, which in the past has been a reliable indicator of recession.

According to Wilding, although the main figures were weaker than expected and certainly reflect a slowing economy, there are some exceptions in the details that show it has not yet sunk.

For PIMCO, this consolidates a Fed rate cut in September and increases the risk that the Fed will revise its forecasts to signal a faster pace of cuts in the future. In this regard, the upcoming employment report and the recovery from July’s weakness will be key to setting the tone for the Fed’s September meeting, Wilding concludes.

Meanwhile, Fernando Marengo, Chief Economist at BlackToro Global Wealth Management, told Funds Society that last week’s data shows a soft landing scenario. And this outlook is not the most favorable for stock valuations in the tech sector, which had implied continued sales growth.

Furthermore, Marengo explained that the new macroeconomic data and equity values, which had been rising steadily since the fourth quarter of last year, prompted some of the market to take profits. At the same time, the professional warned about a “flight to quality.”

“Clearly, those who made a big profit are trying to capitalize on that gain in the face of a new scenario of uncertainty: first of slowdown and now of uncertainty, because the drop in asset prices clearly has an impact on families, there is a loss of wealth in the drop in assets,” he summarized, noting that a recession cannot be ruled out and that increases nervousness in the markets.

However, he also believes that these soft landing levels are not worrisome either.

“The Fed is fulfilling its dual mandate, full employment with price control. This would not justify a cut in monetary policy rates. Now, if the capital market crisis deepens and this starts to have an impact on the balance sheet of some sector of the economy, it will surely be necessary for the Fed to take action. Otherwise, we will have to wait for the September session,” he insisted.

BlackToro has been recommending for “some time” to reduce risk exposure and primarily invest in fixed income. Marengo explained that the strategy is “to make rates on the short end of the curve and extend duration on the treasury bond curve.”

“Since May, we started rotating our portfolio, we started moving out of the more aggressive stocks and moving into more defensive sectors. We moved out of tech and went into more value, much more defensive companies. Therefore, our portfolios are capitalizing on our strategies that we had been seeing from our teams,” he added.

The executive argued that it will always depend on the profile of each investor, but he maintained that it is not a time to take risks and wait “until uncertainty and volatility decrease.”

In another opinion, Santiago Ulloa, Managing Partner of We Family Offices, also thought that the market reaction was “exaggerated, accelerated by systematic trading as stop losses were surpassed.”

However, for Ulloa, based in Miami, the Fed will have to accelerate and increase rate cuts compared to what was thought a few months ago.

Regarding investment recommendations at this time, Ulloa told Funds Society that it depends a lot on their current asset diversification.

“I think any move has to be prudent, but for those who are not in the stock market and want to be, it could be a good time to start buying gradually. In any case, volatility will continue, and one must look at the long-term strategy for each person,” he concluded.

Triple Event: Data Will Guide the Decisions of the Fed, BoE, and BoJ

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On Wednesday and Thursday, there will be a triple event for central banks: the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold their respective monetary policy meetings. Each institution faces its own challenges and has its messages for the market. However, they all have one thing in common: dependence on the evolution of macro data, particularly inflation.

In the case of the Fed, everything indicates that it will maintain interest rates in this upcoming meeting, which will be interpreted as preparing for a possible first cut in September. However, things are not as clear for the Bank of England (BoE), where the sentiment for a possible cut is only 50%, despite what the data suggests. Lastly, experts explain that this BoJ meeting is important because it will provide more details on the plan to reduce the asset purchase program (QT), the next step to normalize monetary policy. The main conclusion is that there will be no rate hike, as it will be a gradual process to give the market time to digest the bonds and avoid a spike in yields.

The Fed in the US

According to Christiaan Tuntono, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Allianz Global Investors, the prospect of a rate cut in the US and the rebound in demand for semiconductors and electronics, in general, are currently very favorable factors for part of the Asian economy and many local equity markets. “In this sense, we expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week but to acknowledge the improvement in US inflation, which could open the door to a rate cut by the end of the summer,” Tuntono points out.

Regarding the importance of data, Pramod Atluri, manager at Capital Group, highlights that “the US economy has largely adapted to this new interest rate environment, and I expect growth to remain above 2% in 2024.” In his opinion, this resilience shown by the US economy has led investors to adjust their expectations regarding interest rates. Although Atluri believes that the arguments for future rate cuts are no longer as evident, the central bank seems inclined towards cuts.

In this regard, the views and analysis from international managers coincide with Tuntono Atluri’s assessment. There is also a consensus in interpreting the latest macro data from the country. “Although the labor market shows clear signs of normalization and recent consumer inflation data has been relatively positive, the central bank has been encouraged by macroeconomic data several times over the past 18 months, only to later discover that the economy continued to operate at an excessive pace. Therefore, it is likely that the Fed will argue that it is prudent to observe the next six weeks of data to clearly validate the need for policy easing,” says Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investment Management.

However, in his opinion, more important than what the Fed does in the next month and a half is how the market will gauge the subsequent pace of rate cuts and the eventual landing zone. “The magical soft landing of 1995 was achieved with only 75 basis points of rate cuts, and some argue that we will see a repeat of that episode in the next six months or so. However, the market expects the Fed to cut between 175 and 200 basis points before the first quarter of 2026,” estimates Weisman.

Regarding when the Fed’s first rate cut will be, managers’ analyses also point to the same timeline: September. “We believe that this week’s data, especially the 0.18% month-over-month core PCE and the signs of cooling shelter inflation, continue to reinforce our view that the first cut will occur in September. We expect a moderate hold at the Fed meeting, with Powell indicating during the press conference that a first cut is likely to happen quite soon if data continues to evolve as expected,” says Greg Wilensky, director of US Fixed Income and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson.

“The lower inflation rates of the past three months should pave the way for a rate cut in September. This is likely to be reflected in the meeting’s conclusions, as the Committee is expected to ensure that confidence in inflation evolving sustainably towards 2% has strengthened and emphasize that the risks to employment and inflation objectives are now balanced. Powell is likely to use his speech at Jackson Hole next month to outline the framework for the easing cycle and remind investors that the Fed will likely lower rates gradually once it begins,” adds Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, international economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

For his part, Brendan Murphy, head of North American Fixed Income at Insight Investment (part of BNY Investments), expects the committee’s official statement to include some modest changes, reflecting how their key inflation metrics are now close to the target and the labor market shows signs of slowing down. “The central bank may be concerned about a potential sudden deterioration in the labor market at some point, so we expect most members to prefer acting soon to ensure a soft landing for the economy. Chairman Powell could also use next month’s Jackson Hole Symposium to set expectations for the rate-cutting cycle,” comments Murphy.

Looking at the United Kingdom

A completely different case from the US is the Bank of England (BoE). According to Katrin Loehken, economist for the UK and Japan at DWS, the outcome of the BoE’s upcoming meeting on Thursday is not clear at all. “The market expects a rate cut with just over 50% probability, and we also anticipate a reduction in the official rate from 5.25% to 5%. However, uncertainty is high because there are good arguments for both sides,” says Loehken.

In this sense, she explains that if most members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) place more emphasis on a prudent and data-dependent assessment of the current situation, the negative surprise in service price inflation in July would be an argument against a rate cut, as would the slow decline in wage dynamics. “With a wait-and-see attitude, nothing wrong would be done in that case. Chief Economist Pill seems to be in the waiting camp after his last speech,” she clarifies.

On the other hand, the DWS economist highlights that updated growth and inflation forecasts should show that the economy is still growing moderately and that inflation is likely to fall below the 2% target in the medium term. Additionally, the current weakening of the labor market also raises the question of how restrictive the central bank should remain.

“In our view, these arguments are more favorable to a first rate cut and are also consistent with the central bank’s generally pessimistic rhetoric. The assessment of voting behavior is further complicated by the new composition of the Monetary Policy Committee. Therefore, only a narrow majority should vote in favor of the expected rate cut,” comments Loehken.

However, Johnathan Owen, manager at TwentyFour AM (Boutique of Vontobel), believes that the BoE may delay this rate cut. “The latest UK inflation figures will bring some relief to consumers, but behind the headline figure, Bank of England policymakers face a more complex picture that suggests rate cuts could still be far off. The latest data showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell exactly to 2% in May, in line with market expectations and marking a return to the BoE’s 2% target for the first time since July 2021,” argues Owen.

According to him, before Wednesday’s CPI data, markets had largely ruled out any chance of the Bank of England cutting rates in June, although the probability of a cut in August was at 44%. “Despite the Bank of England achieving its headline inflation target of 2%, the rigidity of services inflation, driven by strong wage growth and resilient demand in certain sectors, makes a rate cut in August increasingly unlikely, in our opinion,” defends the expert from TwentyFour AM.

Lastly, Peder Beck-Friis, economist at PIMCO, maintains his outlook and points out that the BoE will make two rate cuts in 2024. “Core inflation is likely to decline as the effects of the pandemic fade, monetary policy remains restrictive, and the labor market rebalances. Rachel Reeves’ comments yesterday show that the new government is firmly committed to fiscal discipline, reducing the upside risks to inflation in the coming years,” explains Beck-Friis.

Japan and Its Historic Monetary Policy

Finally, according to analysts at Banca March, in Japan, investors are betting on a rate hike at the July meeting, especially after the long silence from Governor Ueda—he will arrive at the meeting with more than 40 days without public interventions—and in light of the recent appreciation of the yen (5% higher against the dollar).

Not only is a rate hike expected, but a reduction in its monthly bond purchases could help strengthen the yen even further. “The possibility of a BoJ rate hike could lead to higher yields on Japanese bonds. However, they could see some volatility in case of a surprise. These actions would represent a significant shift in Japan’s monetary policy, affecting bond yields. Yields fell today and could remain under pressure before the BoJ meeting, although they remain near their highs. Additionally, the risks of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere could drive flows into safe-haven assets, benefiting the yen,” explains Bas Kooijman, CEO and manager at DHF Capital S.A.

According to Magdalene Teo, Asian fixed income analyst at Julius Baer, it is still possible for the BoJ to maintain a hawkish stance by setting the stage to reduce bond purchases with a clear and bold plan to raise interest rates. “In any case, the big decision this week will come from Japan. Any communication error could be costly for the BoJ. The AUD and most Asian currencies, except MYR, IDR, and KRW, depreciated against the USD yesterday,” concludes Teo.

BNY Investments Launches a New Global Aggregate Fixed Income Fund

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BNY Investments has announced the launch of the BNY Mellon Global Aggregate Bond Fund, a vehicle managed by Insight Investment (Insight), a global manager with $838.1 million in assets under management, of which $252.6 million is in fixed income.

According to the asset manager, the fund launches with an initial capital of approximately $150 million and will primarily invest in government debt securities and investment-grade credit from around the world. The strategy is co-managed by the Global Credit, Global Rates, and Macro Research teams. These three teams are part of Insight’s Fixed Income Group (FIG), composed of 166 investment professionals worldwide. Specifically, the vehicle will be led by Adam Whiteley, Head of Global Credit, and Harvey Bradley, Senior Portfolio Manager, in coordination with Portfolio Manager Nathaniel Hyde.

“Our approach focuses on selecting the best ideas from a set of global fixed income opportunities to build a truly diversified portfolio. While we prioritize investment-grade debt, we can invest in high yield and emerging market fixed income. When building the portfolio, the team combines Insight’s top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up security selection to identify opportunities that offer attractive risk-adjusted returns regardless of market conditions,” explained Peter Bentley, Co-Head of Fixed Income at Insight.

Sasha Evers, Head of Europe ex-UK at BNY Investments, added: “We are in an ideal moment for fixed income because yields are at levels we haven’t seen since before the global financial crisis. This new fund is managed the same way as the global aggregate fixed income strategy launched by Insight in 2015, which has assets of €9.2 billion.”

The fund is part of BNY Mellon Global Funds, plc (BNY MGF), the range of products domiciled in Ireland, and is registered in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

More Than a Third of Americans Use AI to Manage Their Finances

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the way Americans learn, work, and communicate, and investment management is no exception. According to a survey by BMO Financial Group, more than a third of Americans (37%) use this new technology to manage their finances.

Among the 37% of Americans using AI to help manage their finances, the most common uses include learning more about personal finance topics (49%), creating and/or updating household budgets (48%), identifying new investment strategies (47%), accumulating savings (47%), and creating and/or updating their financial plans (46%).

However, 64% state that AI cannot understand how emotions influence financial planning, the statement explains.

“AI offers great potential in how we manage our finances, providing real-time insights and analysis. However, money management is more than analytical; it is a deeply personal relationship shaped by emotions, experiences, and unique life circumstances,” said Paul Dilda, Head, U.S. Consumer Strategy, BMO.

The survey highlights how AI continues to change the way Americans learn, work, and communicate. For example, 59% use AI to ask questions about topics of interest, and 40% use the technology for data analysis.

Additionally, more than half believe that AI can help people make more informed financial decisions (53%) and make financial planning more accessible for everyone (52%).

On the other hand, 39% use AI to draft business, travel, exercise, and meal plans and/or manage their schedules and content creation, with more than 40% of Americans using the technology.

Optimistic Perspectives

Among Americans who do not use AI for their finances, nearly a third are considering using the technology to learn more about personal finance topics (32%), increase their savings (31%), find new investment strategies (29%), create and/or update their household budgets (29%) and financial plans (27%), and/or for retirement planning (27%).

As Generation Z begins to navigate life changes, the majority leverage AI to plan upcoming financial milestones more than any other generation. Therefore, they are the most likely to use AI to ask questions about topics of interest (82%), draft written content (75%), create business, travel, exercise, and/or meal plans (67%), and manage their finances and investments (61%).

In the past six months, 22% of Generation Z needed to make a major purchase, such as a car or a house, 18% attended college or graduate school, 15% changed jobs, and 13% started a business. However, 85% of Generation Z say that concern about their overall financial situation is the main source of financial anxiety, followed by fear of unknown expenses (80%), housing costs (79%), and keeping up with monthly bills (76%).

58% of Generation Z believe that AI can help people make more informed financial decisions, and 55% trust that AI tools can help them make real financial progress.

Political Uncertainty, Inflation, and Central Banks Will Shape the Exchange Rate Between the Euro and the Dollar

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The political uncertainty following recent European elections and ahead of the U.S. elections in November this year is a key factor in evaluating the future of the euro-dollar exchange rate. Additionally, this situation is compounded by the evolution of inflation in both economies, which is decreasing at a slower pace than expected, and the decisions that the ECB and the Fed will make regarding the pace of interest rate cuts.

To provide an approximate forecast of how the euro-dollar relationship will evolve, we have gathered analysis from various experts. For example, Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, considers it unlikely that the euro will rebound, as manufacturing momentum is slowing, although the currency should rise once the Fed starts cutting rates.

“Since the beginning of the year, the euro has had a mediocre performance. So far this year, it has fallen by around 3% against the U.S. dollar, while it has recorded a 1% rise in trade-weighted terms. Notably, the euro’s fluctuation band has been narrowing in recent years, and since January, the euro-dollar ratio has remained between 1.06 and 1.10,” Wewel points out.

According to his view, the duration of the current episode of “prolonged rise” will depend on the data. In this regard, he notes that the latest U.S. macroeconomic data have been weaker than expected, suggesting a moderation of the U.S.’s superior cyclical performance. However, he sees it as unlikely that the cyclical euro will benefit from the weakening economic activity in the U.S., given that the main economies of the eurozone have seen disappointing manufacturing PMIs in June.

“In this relative cyclical context, the ECB should be able to cut its policy more than the Federal Reserve this year. Along with the greater rigidity of U.S. inflation, the Fed’s less deep rate cut path than the market expected also reflects the increased odds of Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which markets have started to consider as the base case. In our opinion, Trump’s policy mix would likely be more inflationary than a continuation of Biden’s policies, implying that in 2025 the Fed would implement fewer rate cuts in this case,” adds the expert from J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

From Ebury, they point out that market nervousness and uncertainty will benefit safe-haven currencies. The fintech predicts a slight appreciation of the euro-dollar pair in the coming months, which will largely result from “some convergence in economic outcomes across the Atlantic in 2024, as the U.S. economy slows after an impressive year, while the eurozone accelerates from a very low base.” Ebury analysts believe this circumstance “will push the pair back towards the 1.10 level by the end of the year, with further appreciation towards the 1.14 level in 2025.”

However, they warn that the outcome of the November presidential elections in the U.S. could pose a risk to this view. “A Donald Trump electoral victory, which markets currently assign about a 50% probability, could be bearish for EUR/USD if the former president doubles down on the protectionist policies that characterized his previous tenure in the White House,” they explain.

Parity: An Omen of Bad Luck?

Finally, according to Bank of America, parity between the two currencies is “rare” and “has not lasted long,” and they believe that for it to happen again, “everything would have to go wrong and stay that way.” According to their analysts, the probability of the euro/dollar reaching parity or less using quarterly data is zero.

“The verdict is still out on whether the euro/dollar will stay at its post-2014 lows or recover to its previous highs. Much depends on the balance between unsustainable debt and U.S. exceptionalism, and to what extent Europe unites to tackle its severe challenges stemming from geopolitics and energy dependency. A potential trade war after the U.S. elections could further weaken the euro. However, for us, parity remains only an outcome in extreme risk scenarios, and even then, we wouldn’t expect it to last long,” explains the entity in one of its latest reports.

Drawing on historical perspective, BofA indicates that the euro/dollar fell below parity only in exceptional circumstances that did not last long. Specifically, it did so only during the periods of 2000-2002 and from August to October 2022. “The first period, which was the longest, occurred during the dot-com bubble in the United States and its burst. The second period was during a perfect storm of negative shocks for Europe, with the war in Ukraine triggering a severe deterioration in its terms of trade through an energy shock, and with divergent monetary policies as the Fed was raising rates while the ECB denied inflation, delaying its policy tightening. However, the euro/dollar was above parity in November 2022, as these shocks began to diminish and the ECB started catching up with the Fed,” they point out.

Their analysis shows that the euro/dollar weakened but stayed above parity during other severe shocks. For example, it was well above parity during the global financial crisis and the eurozone crisis. It weakened substantially but also remained above parity during the ECB’s negative policy rate period after 2014. “Similarly, it stayed well above parity and without a clear trend during Trump’s first term in the United States: the euro/dollar initially strengthened and then weakened. It also remained well above parity during the pandemic,” concludes BofA in its report.

BBVA México Launches Fund Focused on Nearshoring

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico linked to nearshoring grew at an annual rate of 47%, rising from $10.5 billion between January and September 2022 to a total of $15 billion in the same period of 2023.

This figure is one of the reasons BBVA México announced the launch of the BBVANSH investment fund, focused on the economic phenomenon of nearshoring, which is transforming the global dynamics of production and trade.

This investment fund is a Mexican equity product that operates with an initial capital of 120 million pesos ($6.48 million), selecting stocks of companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts (FIBRAs) focused on the logistics, supply, infrastructure, and services sectors.

The sectoral distribution of the investment fund primarily includes airport services, construction, rail transportation, passenger transportation, equipment and auto parts, as well as the hotel and education sectors, among others.

BBVA México led the country’s investment fund market during the first half of the year with a 24.53% share; the new BBVANSH fund increases the institution’s offering of investment strategies to 56 available products.

“BBVANSH not only reflects our commitment to innovation and adaptation to global trends but also our confidence in Mexico’s economic potential. We firmly believe that the fund, aside from providing attractive returns to our investors, will also contribute to the sustainable economic development of our country,” said Luis Ángel Rodríguez Amestoy, director of BBVA Asset Management México.

“We recognize the opportunity that this strategy represents not only for our country but also for companies and investments in the financial markets,” added Jorge Alegría Formoso, CEO of the Mexican Stock Exchange.

According to BBVA México, BBVANSH will consist of between 15 and 35 issuers listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange, with approximately 70% being companies and 30% FIBRAs, prioritizing high and mid-cap issuers.

The expectations of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) indicate that nearshoring will continue to be one of the major investment magnets for the Mexican economy in the coming years.

IMCO recently highlighted an analysis of the 57 sectors most related to nearshoring and the trend of FDI, including automobile and truck manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and the beverage industry—data that BBVA also considered when launching its new product in the institution’s fund family.

Retail Investors Become the Main Clientele for Funds in Brazil

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The number of individual investors in Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDC) has skyrocketed in the past year, making this class of investors the primary category in the investment sector, according to a report published by Anbima (Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities).

According to available data, in May (the most recent month available), the number of individual investors reached 37,830, a figure 70% higher compared to the previous year. In second place are investment funds, with 28,968 managers.

According to Sergio Cutolo, Director of Anbima, CVM Resolution 175 was largely responsible for the change. “Our expectation is that the adaptation of the stock of FIDCs to the new standards, which will take place in November of this year, will pave the way for even greater growth than what has been recorded so far,” he says.

Liquidity and Transparency

The liquidity of FIDC assets, especially open-end funds, is a crucial issue for this asset class. The obligation to provide detailed liquidity information to the regulator (CVM) revealed that many managers still face challenges. In May 2024, 88 funds did not submit the required information, and of the 404 that did, 76 were discarded due to filling errors.

However, FIDC liquidity has increased, and longer terms are being offered to investors. The data shows that 71.56% of the assets of these funds have liquidity of more than 360 days, an improvement compared to the beginning of the year, but still lower than the levels in 2021 and 2022.

The presence of open-end financial funds investing in closed-end FIDCs represents a liquidity risk, especially due to the difficulties in handling shareholder redemptions. In May 2024, there were 1,656 open-end FIFs with shares in closed-end FIDCs, a significant increase from the 1,189 in January 2023. Despite this, most FIFs maintain relatively low exposure to FIDCs, which helps mitigate risks.