Inflation and Market Concerns Drive Financial Anxiety in 2025

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Financial uncertainty escalates as inflation and market fluctuations continue to weigh on Americans. According to the 2025 Q1 Quarterly Market Perceptions Study from Allianz Life Insurance Company of North America, 71% of Americans expect inflation to worsen over the next 12 months, a significant increase from 60% at the close of 2024. Meanwhile, 75% fear that new tariffs will drive up their cost of living, further intensifying financial pressures. 

Additionally, 51% of respondents predicted another major market crash, a jump from 46% in the previous quarter. Only 26% feel comfortable investing in current conditions, down from 31% in Q4 2024

Americans are increasingly worried about the long-term effects of inflation. Nearly three in four believe rising costs will impact their retirement plans, while 79% fear inflation will continue to weaken their income’s purchasing power in the next six months. Short-term investments are also under pressure, with 67% concerned that returns on bonds and money market funds are too low to offset inflation. 

Growing economic uncertainty is prompting more Americans to seek financial advice. 59% have recently consulted or plan to consult a financial professional, up from 51% in the previous quarter

With rising costs and market uncertainty, Americans are increasingly seeking financial guidance. Strategic planning and diversified investments will be key to navigating these challenges and maintaining financial stability in the year ahead.

Pablo Bernal Appointed as New Country Head for Spain at Vanguard

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Pablo Bernal Country Head Vanguard España
Photo courtesyPablo Bernal, Vanguard

Vanguard has announced the appointment of Pablo Bernal as Country Head for Spain, underscoring the firm’s commitment to the Spanish market.

Bernal joined Vanguard in Mexico in 2017 and most recently served as Head of Intermediary Sales for Latin America. In his new role, he will be based in London, from where he will initially serve the Spanish market, reporting to Simone Rosti, Head of Italy and Southern Europe.

Earlier this year, Vanguard appointed Álvaro Hermoso Ferreiro as Sales Executive and Head of Client Support in Spain. He will now report to the new Country Head.

“We are very pleased to welcome Pablo to our team in Europe and to strengthen Vanguard’s presence in Spain. We have been working with clients in this country for many years and have built strong on-the-ground relationships that we now aim to expand and deepen. Spain represents a significant opportunity to serve both wholesale and advisory clients, as well as those serving self-directed investors. We believe Vanguard’s investment principles, backed by 50 years of proven experience, will resonate well with Spanish investors and give them the best chance for investment success,” said Robyn Laidlaw, Head of European Distribution at Vanguard.

The firm highlights that Spain is one of the largest investment management markets in Europe. However, it acknowledges that one of the main challenges in the Spanish market is the relatively low penetration of indexing and ETFs. As one of the world’s largest managers of both passive and active investments, Vanguard believes it is well positioned to help investors understand the benefits of low-cost index funds and ETFs.

Following the announcement, Pablo Bernal, now Country Head for Spain, commented: “I’m excited to bring Vanguard closer to Spanish investors. As we celebrate the firm’s 50th anniversary this year, it’s the perfect time to share our mission of standing up for all investors. We believe our broadly diversified index funds and ETFs, designed for long-term investing, along with our value-added services for intermediaries, will align well with a wide range of local clients. We also plan to expand our local operations and team by the end of this year.”

Vanguard Appoints Adriana Rangel as Head of Distribution for Latin America

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Vanguard appoints Adriana Rangel
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Vanguard has announced the promotion of Adriana Rangel to Head of Distribution for Latin America.

In her new role, the firm stated in a press release, Rangel will be responsible for the Institutional and Wealth Management distribution teams across Mexico, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, and US Offshore.

This consolidation of distribution teams aims to foster greater synergies across the region, the firm added.

Rangel joined Vanguard Mexico in 2019 and most recently served as Head of Institutional Sales for Latin America. The company described her role as “instrumental in strengthening the pension ecosystem in the region,” by developing local retirement solutions, enhancing investment alternatives for healthy global diversification, and raising the firm’s profile.

She is also a co-founder of Mujeres en Finanzas, an organization promoting the development and empowerment of women in the financial sector. Rangel brings extensive experience in providing investment solutions to institutions such as Afores, AFPs, Personal Retirement Plan Providers, Asset Managers, and Insurance Companies.

She holds a degree in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and recently earned her MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.

“Since her arrival, Adriana has been fundamental to Vanguard’s growth in the region, positioning us as one of the leading global asset managers in the market. I am confident that under her leadership, extensive experience, and deep understanding of our clients’ needs, we will continue to enhance our value proposition and services, offering all investors the best chances of success,” said Juan Hernández, Head of Latin America, in the press release.

Hernández also took the opportunity to thank outgoing executive Pablo Bernal – recently appointed Country Head for Vanguard Spain – for his leadership and achievements in the region over the past eight years.

Rangel commented: “I am very proud and excited about the challenge this new role represents. Our team has built very strong relationships across the region, and we want to deliver the best investment solutions. We will optimize our client coverage so that, through our extraordinary team, we can change the way Latin America invests.”

Investment With a Gender Perspective: The Approach and Proposal of Asset Managers

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The last 25 years have been marked by a growing focus on diversity and gender inclusion worldwide, with specific strategies aimed at eliminating biases across all areas of society. This trend has also reached the investment sector and its investment criteria.

According to UBS in its Gender-Lens Investment report, the origins of gender-focused investing are deeply rooted in the collective effort to empower women. “However, it would be a mistake not to recognize the significant economic benefits that can result from it. Closing the gender gap in labor force participation and management positions could alone contribute up to 7 trillion dollars to global GDP. This number rises to between 22 and 28 trillion dollars if gender equality is achieved,” the report states.

These potential economic benefits are capturing the attention of governments and economists, who are implementing new strategies to strengthen the role of women in society. However, UBS also believes that investors can benefit from this momentum by identifying opportunities within the three gender-focused investment perspectives.

Investment Ideas With a Gender Perspective

The first perspective proposed by UBS is based on the idea that investments for women encompass a wide range of products and services that meet their needs. “We believe the most viable investment opportunity lies in emerging digital technologies,” the report states. In their view, many gender-focused efforts, such as those related to education or financial inclusion, have concentrated on serving women in emerging and frontier markets, often through philanthropic mechanisms such as blended finance and grant funding.

The second idea UBS advocates in its report is that investments in women represent, in their opinion, the most scalable and diversified investment opportunity, as they provide access to various industries, regions, and types of companies. In this regard, they explain that this includes more established approaches, such as “investing in companies with significant female representation in management positions, based on the investment thesis that diverse companies tend to achieve better financial performance.”

Lastly, the UBS report argues that “investments made by women offer the opportunity to incorporate capital with a more defined purpose into portfolios, with credible sustainable and impact investment solutions, as well as less liquid investments in private companies and assets that are likely to gain greater relevance.”

From Approach to Fund Construction: Three Examples

As a result of this approach, asset managers have created specific funds that incorporate the ideas proposed and analyzed in the UBS report. For example, in 2019, Nordea AM launched the Global Diversity Engagement Strategy fund, aiming to capitalize on the growing awareness of diversity and inclusion. According to Julie Bech, the fund manager, the strategy focuses on investing in companies that lead in gender equality and diversity while also engaging with those at the beginning of their diversity journey to help accelerate their progress.

“The strategy consists of a global equity portfolio with an additional level of social engagement. Stock selection is based on the multi-asset team’s quantitative model at NAM, which filters the most attractive investments using factors such as quality, value, momentum, and historical relative profitability. The strategy evaluates companies using a ‘diversity overlay,’ which assigns them a score based on four criteria: leadership diversity, talent pipeline, inclusion efforts, and diversity change,” Bech adds.

Along the same lines, the Mirova Women Leaders Equity Fund, launched in 2019 by Mirova, a subsidiary of Natixis Investment Managers, stands out. This vehicle invests in companies that contribute to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, with a special focus on gender diversity and female empowerment.

Also within the equity market, investors have access to the RobecoSAM Global Gender Equality Equities fund. According to the asset manager, it is an actively managed vehicle that invests globally in companies that promote gender diversity and equality. “Stock selection is based on fundamental analysis, and the strategy integrates sustainability criteria as part of the selection process through a specific gender-focused sustainability assessment. The portfolio is built from an eligible investment universe that includes companies with higher gender scores, based on an internal gender assessment methodology. This methodology covers various criteria, such as board diversity, pay equity, talent management, and employee well-being,” they explain.

Construction Costs Ease, but challenges remain

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While inflation has begun to slow across the Americas, the construction industry remains under strain. A combination of new tariffs, labor shortages, and rising material prices continues to challenge businesses heading into 2025. 

The slowing of inflation has brought some relief, with construction costs falling below their 5- and 10-year averages. However, industry leaders remain cautious. 

“Our survey shows that general contractors expect permitting times will continue to be a major pain point as well, leading to project delays and more uncertainty,” said Brian Ungles, President, Project & Development Services, Americas. 

Office construction has taken a hit, with new office space down by 40% year-over-year. This has led to increased demand for renovations and fit-outs in existing offices. As a result, landlords are offering higher tenant improvement packages, but these come at a cost. Some markets have seen TI allowances jump by 20% in the past year. 

“While new office construction pipeline has decreased, costs for all construction will continue to rise with more fill-out activity in existing offices and the strength of new construction in other sectors,” said Richard Jantz, Tri-State Lead, Project & Development Services. 

For those looking to plan office upgrades or new construction projects, Cushman & Wakefield’s 2025 Americas Office Fit Out Cost Guide is offering in-depth analysis of 58 markets. This guide includes updated costs for a range of construction trades. 

While inflation slows, rising materials costs and the complex challenges of labor shortages and tariffs ensure that the construction landscape will remain turbulent. As projects move forward into 2025, businesses must carefully plan and adjust to these ongoing pressures.

The Tariff Heading Continues With Corrections in the Bags and the Managers Adjusting Their Scenarios

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The world’s major economies are making their move in response to the Trump administration’s tariff game. Meanwhile, markets are feeling the impact of commercial and geopolitical uncertainty, and investors are beginning to consider a scenario of economic recession in the U.S. alongside rising inflation. This heightened volatility translated into another turbulent session on Wall Street, with declines in the S&P and Nasdaq, as well as European stock markets falling for the fourth consecutive session (EuroStoxx 50 -1.4%; Ibex -1.5%).

“The fear of a U.S. economic recession and its spillover to the rest of the world, partly driven by Trump’s unstable trade policy in these early months of his term, is leading to profit-taking after an excellent start to the year for European stock markets,” explain analysts at Banca March.

According to Gilles Moëc, chief economist at AXA IM, “there is a revolutionary atmosphere in Europe.” He believes that “the reaction of EU institutions and national governments to the U.S. challenge has been quicker and stronger than expected.” He warns of two key issues: first, “whether national governments have the willingness and capacity, given already unstable fiscal positions and watchful markets”; second, “the magnitude of the multiplier effects that this additional spending will have on GDP, both in Europe and in Germany,” a country about which he notes, “the revolution could be relatively painless.”

Where Are We in This Tariff Game?

To summarize quickly, Trump has implemented 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico being the most affected. Additionally, the U.S. president has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, in response to a 25% increase in the electricity price Ontario exports to the United States.

On the receiving end of these new tariffs, the latest response has come from the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, has just announced countermeasures worth €26 billion, which will affect U.S. products such as textiles, appliances, and agricultural goods starting April 1. The European Commission “regrets the U.S. decision to impose such tariffs, which are unjustified and harmful to transatlantic trade, damaging businesses and consumers and often resulting in higher prices.” Brussels estimates that these tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative European products will have an impact of around $28 billion.

How Much and How the Landscape Has Changed

In response to this situation, international asset managers are adjusting their scenarios. According to Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at Aberdeen Investments, the rapid adoption of executive measures by President Trump, particularly in trade, has led them to update their outlooks from several important perspectives.

“We now see the U.S. weighted average tariff rate continuing to rise to 9.1%. We assume a reciprocal tariff will be implemented, though with several exemptions. We anticipate higher general tariffs on China and more sector-specific tariffs, including those applied to the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Additionally, the risk that trade policy becomes even more disruptive has increased,” she notes.

Galbraith acknowledges that their “Unleashed Trump” scenario assumes reciprocal tariffs are systematically applied and include non-tariff trade barriers, while the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) collapses entirely. “This results in the average U.S. tariff reaching 22%, surpassing the highs of the 1930s,” she explains.

The Aberdeen Investments political economist believes that the economic fundamentals remain strong. However, she acknowledges that “our updated baseline political expectations, along with the risk bias in our forecasts, will present headwinds for U.S. economic growth and inflation.”

Finally, according to Enguerrand Artaz, strategist at La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE), part of the LBP AM group, “the market scenarios that prevailed at the beginning of the year have been erased.” Artaz explains that the U.S. exceptionalism that had been shining for the past two years—and that consensus expected to continue—is now faltering. “Weighed down by the collapse of the trade balance, driven in turn by a sharp increase in imports in anticipation of tariff hikes, U.S. growth is expected to slow significantly, at least in the first quarter. On the other hand, Europe, a region in which very few investors had any hope at the start of the year, has returned to center stage.”

Implications for Investments

Given this backdrop, Amundi‘s latest Investment Talks report states that “the Trump trades are over, and the market rotation away from major U.S. tech stocks continues.” They explain that despite the recent sell-off, they believe the expected correction in excessively valued areas of the U.S. equity market could continue, leading to further rotation in favor of Europe and China.

“In fixed income, it is crucial to maintain an active duration approach. Since the beginning of the year, we first became more bullish on European duration, and more recently, we have started moving toward neutrality. We have also shifted to a neutral stance on U.S. duration and expect the U.S. 2-10 year yield curve to steepen. Regarding credit, we remain cautious on U.S. high-yield bonds and prefer investment-grade European credit. As our original euro/dollar target of 1.10 approaches, we expect volatility to remain high and believe there is still room for further dollar correction. Overall, we believe it is essential to maintain a balanced and diversified allocation that includes gold and hedges to counter the increasing downside risk in equities,” Amundi analysts state.

Meanwhile, BlackRock Investment Institute highlights that political uncertainty and rising bond yields pose risks to growth and equities in the short term. “We see further upward pressure on European and U.S. yields due to persistent inflation and rising debt levels, although lower U.S. yields suggest markets expect the typical Federal Reserve response to a slowdown. However, we believe that megatrends like artificial intelligence (AI) could offset these drags on equities, which is why we remain positive over a six- to twelve-month horizon,” they indicate in their weekly report.

Farmer Confidence Rises as Conditions Improve on U.S. Farms

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U.S. farmers had already begun 2025 with an optimistic outlook, and their sentiment further improved in February. The Purdue University-CME Group Agricultural Economy Barometer rose to 152, an 11-point increase from the previous month.

An improvement in the current situation of U.S. farms was the main driver of stronger sentiment among producers, as the Current Conditions Index reading was 28 points higher than in January.

However, there was little change in producers’ assessment of future prospects, with the Future Expectations Index rising only 3 points in February to reach 159.

This latest increase in the Current Conditions Index capped off a long recovery from the stagnation seen in late summer and early fall of 2024, when the index hit a low of 76.

A strong rebound in crop prices in recent months—boosted by expectations of disaster payments authorized by Congress—combined with the strength of the U.S. livestock sector, contributed to a more positive assessment by producers regarding conditions on their farms and in the broader agricultural sector.

Despite the significant improvement in the Current Conditions Index, the Future Expectations Index for February remained 22 points higher than the current index, suggesting that farmers expect conditions to improve even further.

Meanwhile, the Agricultural Capital Investment Index rose 11 points to 59 in February. This reading also marked the most positive investment outlook reported by farmers since May 2021.

Interestingly, in February, it was a stronger assessment of current conditions—rather than heightened expectations for the future—that helped push the index upward. The Farm Financial Performance Index stood at 110, remaining virtually unchanged from 111 the previous month. While the index showed little change from January, it still reflects a significant rebound compared to last fall, when it fell to a low of just 68.

ICBA Payments Partners With Mastercard To Modernize Community Banking

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ICBA Payments has partnered with Mastercard to upgrade card and payment services for 1,400 community banks. The collaboration enhances security, streamlines digital payments, and improves customer experiences.

“By partnering with Mastercard, we’re equipping our member banks with secure, cost-effective solutions to support and grow their communities,” said ICBA Payments CEO Jacob Eisen

These payments will upgrade its sponsored card programs to Mastercard at no cost, introducing contactless payments, digital wallet tokenization, and optimized business BIN structures. Mastercard will manage cardholder communication and provide assets to boost engagement. 

“Together, we are enabling community banks to drive financial empowerment, foster local growth, and create a more connected and resilient future for every community they serve,” said Marie Elizabeth, US Market Development Mastercard executive president. 

ICBA payments support community banks through innovation and advocacy, collectively managing over $43 billion in credit and debit sales. This partnership strengthens local economies all while delivering secure, modern payment solutions.

The U.S. ETF Industry Bets on a Dual Share Class Structure

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Asset managers are generally optimistic about the possibility of a future approval of the dual-class share structure. Most ETFs issuers stated that they expect active mutual funds (74% of applicants) and passive mutual funds (26%) to incorporate ETF share classes for approval.

Furthermore, 93% of active applicants requested such an exemption in their applications as of December 2024, according to the latest report by consulting firm Cerulli Edge—U.S. Product Development Edition.

The appeal of the dual-class share structure makes sense from a product development perspective, as such approval would greatly benefit both financial advisors and end investors by expanding investment options and simplifying the process for those seeking greater exposure through their preferred structure.

According to Cerulli’s survey, 69% of ETFs issuers indicated that they have already submitted exemption requests, while 29% are planning to apply at a later date or are considering a dual-class share structure initiative and monitoring developments (29%).

SEC filings from various applicants clearly list advantages such as “lower portfolio transaction costs,” “greater tax efficiency,” and an “additional distribution channel for asset growth and economies of scale” concerning ETF share classes in mutual funds, as well as “efficient portfolio rebalancing” and “greater basket flexibility” for mutual fund share classes in ETFs, noted Sally Jin, an analyst at Cerulli.

“Other arguments in favor of the dual-class share structure point to ongoing initiatives that offer similar benefits—such as cloning mutual fund strategies in ETFs and converting mutual funds to ETFs—which simultaneously respond to investor demand and pose fiduciary challenges that the dual-class share structure might be better suited to address,” she added.

However, significant regulatory and distribution challenges persist, and it remains to be seen whether the SEC will approve these measures and, if so, what they will entail exactly, according to the Boston-based consulting firm.

The SEC has raised numerous concerns, including excessive leverage, conflicts of interest, investor confusion, the risk of cross-subsidies, discrepancies in cash redemptions and fund expense payments, and unequal voting power.

Regarding distribution, ETF managers cited the main obstacles as brokerage firms’ reluctance to approve or make ETF share classes available on platforms (54%), the operational complexity of managing mutual fund and ETFs share classes (43%), and asset managers’ reluctance to provide transparency into mutual fund strategies (29%).

Additionally, 69% of ETF asset managers agreed that adopting the dual-class share structure would be more significant for registered independent advisor (RIA) channels, compared to 42% of firms that expressed the same view regarding central offices.

“Despite these obstacles, half of the asset managers who responded to Cerulli’s survey remain optimistic about the possibility of future approval of the dual-class share structure, although the timeline for such approval remains uncertain,” Jin stated. “The growing number of applicants, who make up a significant portion of the investment sector, could be a decisive factor,” she concluded.

Trump, Central Banks, or the Climate: What Dynamics Are Driving the Commodities Market?

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Even as the world enters a phase of deglobalization, the connection between markets and the global economic and geopolitical landscape remains strong. That is why international asset managers are closely watching how the commodities market is responding to expectations surrounding steel and aluminum tariffs, a potential U.S. recession, increased spending in Europe, possible sanctions on Russia, and shifts in energy demand—a long and complex list of factors.

According to Marcus Garvey, Head of Commodities Strategy at Macquarie, their economists have revised global GDP growth projections for 2025 down to 2.2% year-over-year, expecting expansion to slow to a quarterly low of 0.3% in Q3 2024.

He explains that the possibility of tariffs on commodity imports has driven up duty-free prices in the U.S.

“This has led to increased demand for materials that can be moved to the U.S. before potential tariffs are imposed, as seen in the growing gold reserves within the country. However, this merely brings forward demand, and once there is tariff clarity, these additional purchases should subside. Furthermore, once tariffs are confirmed, excess inventory in the U.S. is likely, and the resulting price hikes for consumers could lead to demand destruction,” Garvey adds.

He also notes that the reciprocal tariffs expected after April 1st may be lower than the market anticipates, which could provide some relief.

Garvey’s base-case scenario is that weakening global demand for goods and slower industrial production growth will negatively impact primary commodity consumption.

“We therefore expect most commodity prices to decline in the second half of the year, with most physical commodity trade balances posting global surpluses. However, gold is a notable exception—given the U.S. fiscal deficit shows no improvement, it could test its all-time high of around $3,500 per ounce,” he states.

Tariffs: The Impact on Steel and Aluminum

The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum announced by the U.S. are now in effect, significantly impacting Australia, Canada, Argentina, and the European Union.

Garvey explains that these tariffs will be implemented through the reinstatement and extension of the Section 232 tariffs from 2018. “This means the same mechanism cannot be easily used to impose tariffs on other commodities in the short term, as it would first require an investigation by the Department of Commerce. As a result, recent volatility in copper spreads on the CME and LME, as well as in the exchange-for-physical (EFP) prices of precious metals, may have been excessive. Still, prices remain vulnerable to broad-based tariffs or country-specific tariffs affecting a large portion of U.S. imports,” he says.

According to Garvey, while some of these costs will be passed on to U.S. processors and consumers, a portion of the tariffs will be absorbed by exporters, as their best net-margin strategy remains delivering to the U.S. Given the greater availability of materials outside the U.S., this could put downward pressure on regional prices elsewhere.

“In steel, there is room for a supply response that could mitigate this situation. However, for aluminum, we do not expect any smelters to restart production. Ultimately, demand will be key in determining the extent of sustained cost pass-through, and we still see the overall backdrop of rising trade tensions as a bearish factor for industrial metal prices,” he adds.

Crude Oil Market and the Impact of Russian Sanctions

In the oil market, projections suggest that supply will continue to outpace demand in 2025 by approximately 1 million barrels per day. However, market perception varies—while sour crude buyers face supply shortages, light sweet crude buyers see a well-supplied market.

Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, notes that with oil hovering around $70 per barrel, it appears to be stabilizing after its recent drop.

“Market sentiment is cooling, and uncertainties around economic outlooks and oil demand are keeping prices under pressure. Beyond geopolitical noise, structural shifts appear to be taking shape,” Rücker explains.

He argues that increased production from oil-producing nations is intensifying competition in the crude market, which is likely to limit U.S. shale oil’s market share.

“U.S. dominance is facing broader scrutiny. From a fundamental perspective, we believe the oil market is heading toward a surplus, with prices declining to around $65 per barrel by the end of the year,” he states.

Additionally, the impact of Russian sanctions remains a crucial factor.

Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie, explains that if sanctions remain in place, reduced Russian exports to India, China, and Turkey could drive a significant price increase. Conversely, if sanctions are weakened or lifted, crude could drop by $5–$10 per barrel.

“While the public focus has been on the U.S. back-and-forth over tariff announcements and suspensions, we believe Russian sanctions could have a much greater impact on crude prices throughout at least the first half of the year. If sanctions on Russia are not eased, the ongoing decline in shipments—currently around 1 million barrels per day—could continue and become a catalyst for a major price surge,” he warns.

Gold’s Surge Amid Economic and Political Uncertainty

No commodities discussion is complete without mentioning gold, which has risen 50% in a year—and may not stop there.

Matthew Michael, Chief Investment Officer at Schroders, explains that a year ago, gold prices began to break out of their previous stagnation.

“At the time, the rally was fueled by major central banks increasing their gold purchases to reduce reliance on U.S. dollar reserves and Treasury holdings amid rising uncertainty. This partially broke gold’s historical correlation with real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates. Additionally, Trump’s trade war will further boost the precious metal,” he states.

Meanwhile, Charlotte Peuron, a precious metals fund manager at Crédit Mutuel AM, adds that gold continued its 2024 uptrend into January 2025, driven by economic and political risks (trade wars, U.S. inflation, political instability, etc.).

She notes that Western investor demand for gold is rising, both through ETFs and physical deliveries.

“China, in addition to central bank purchases, has just launched a pilot program allowing insurance companies to invest in gold for their medium- and long-term asset allocation strategies. All signals are green, which should support gold demand. Silver is also rallying, up 12.8% since the beginning of the year, reaching $32.60 per ounce,” she adds.

Agricultural Commodities: The Coffee Price Surge

One notable commodity trend is the relentless rise in coffee prices. Since early 2024, the price of high-quality Arabica beans—known for their smoother, less bitter taste—has risen by about 90%, while Robusta beans—typically used for instant coffee—have increased by over 90%.

Michaela Huber, Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at Vontobel, attributes this mainly to climate conditions.

“Brazil, which accounts for nearly 40% of global coffee production and is the top supplier of Arabica, has suffered from a devastating combination of frost and prolonged drought. In Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer and the top supplier of Robusta, extreme weather fluctuations—droughts followed by heavy rains—have also wreaked havoc. As a result, crop yields have plummeted, reducing supply,” she explains.

Huber warns that unless harvests improve or consumers significantly cut back on consumption, the price rally could persist.