CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: 401(K) 2012
. SEC Approves IEX Proposal to Launch National Exchange
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday approved Investors’ Exchange LLC’s (IEX)application to register as a national securities exchange. At the same time, the Commission issued an updated interpretation that will require trading centers to honor automated securities prices that are subject to a small delay or “speed” bump when being accessed.
“Today’s actions promote competition and innovation, which our equity markets depend on to continue to deliver robust, efficient service to both retail and institutional investors,” said SEC Chair Mary Jo White. “A critical role of the Commission’s regulatory framework is to facilitate the ability of market participants to craft appropriate market-based initiatives, consistent with our mission to protect investors, maintain market integrity, and promote capital formation.”
IEX must satisfy certain standard conditions specified in the Commission’s order before it is able to begin the process of transitioning its operation to a national securities exchange, including participating in a variety of national market system plans and joining the Intermarket Surveillance Group.
The Commission’s interpretation applies to the Order Protection Rule under Regulation NMS, which protects the best priced automated quotations of certain trading centers by generally obligating other trading centers to honor those protected quotations and not execute trades at inferior prices. Under Regulation NMS, an automated quotation is one that, among other things, can be executed immediately and automatically against an incoming immediate-or-cancel order.
The Commission’s updated interpretation determined that a small delay will not prevent investors from accessing stock prices in a fair and efficient manner consistent with the goals of the Order Protection Rule. In doing so, the Commission interprets the term “immediate” under Rule 600(b)(3) of Regulation NMS as precluding any coding of automated systems or other type of intentional action that would delay access to a security price beyond a de minimisamount of time.
Additionally, Commission staff issued guidance concerning the duration of the de minimis intentional access delays. The staff guidance states that delays of less than one millisecond are at a de minimis level.
Within two years of the Commission’s interpretation, staff will conduct a study regarding the effects of any intentional access delays on market quality, including asset pricing and report back to the Commission with the results of any recommendations. Based on the results of that study, or earlier as it determines, the Commission will reassess whether further action is appropriate.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: KMR Photography. Old Mutual AM Acquires Majority Stake In Landmark Partners
Old Mutual Asset Management (OMAM) has reached an agreement to acquire a 60% equity interest in Landmark Partners, a global secondary private equity, real estate and real asset investment firm.
The cost of the transaction amounts to around $240m in cash with the potential for an additional payment based on the growth of the business through 2018. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2016.
“The overall investment is expected to result in a purchase multiple of 8-10x economic net income generated by the Landmark transaction, prior to financing costs,” OMAM specified in a statement.
OMAM said it intends to fund the closing payment using available capacity on its existing revolving credit facility or may seek alternative sources of debt financing depending on market conditions.
The firm expects the transaction to be up to 12% accretive to 2017 ENI per share.
“Landmark is precisely the kind of industry leader with whom we seek to partner,” said Peter Bain, OMAM’s president and CEO.
“The depth and breadth of their management team are exemplary and we look forward to collaborating with them to grow their existing product set and further diversify their business into emerging secondary asset classes. Our global distribution team is excited about bringing Landmark into certain domestic channels as well as new markets outside the US”, points out Bain.
Founded in 1989, Landmark has completed over 500 transactions for a total amount of $15.5bn since its launch. The company has acquired interests in over 1,900 partnerships, managed by over 700 general partners. Landmark operates through locations in Boston, London, New York, and Simsbury, Connecticut.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Moyan Brenn. Brexit: más que un riesgo, una incertidumbre
Over the recent weeks, hedge funds have remained broadly defensive in anticipation of key announcements in June that may disrupt market conditions. As such, explains Lyxor AM, they are definitely not adding risk to their portfolios.
The Brexit referendum is the most prominent event among the near term potential disruptors. In response, several European L/S Equity managers have decided to significantly downsize their exposure to UK assets ahead of the vote. Meanwhile, CTAs and Macro managers maintain large net short positions on the GBP/USD. At the end of May, point out the firm, CTAs added to their GBP/USD shorts while Macro managers slightly reduced their short positions on the currency pair.
According to the Lyxor AM team, head by Jeanne Asseraf-Bitton, Global Head of Cross Asset Research, the mid-June FOMC meeting and the associated summary of economic projections will also be closely monitored by managers amid signals that US economic activity accelerated in Q2. As a result of such near term uncertainties, the median equity beta of hedge funds on the Lyxor platform remained below 20% during the last week of May (see chart) and edged even lower for strategies such as CTAs, Global Macro and multistrategy.
With regards to recent performance, say Lyxor AM experts, the last week of May was supportive for every strategy, with Macro and L/S Equity funds outperforming. Macro managers benefitted from their equity exposures and from the USD rally. In the L/S Equity space, variable biased managers outperformed. It is interesting to note that L/S managers with a defensive bias made the most of the market environment in May as the value rally faded. However, CTAs continued their recent underperformance. In May the Lyxor CTA Broad index was down 2.3%.
“Going forward, we maintain the preference for strategies that limit exposure to market directionality (i.e. we prefer merger arbitrage to special situations as well as market neutral and variable biased L/S to long biased managers). We also remain overweight CTAs in the midterm though tactically we advise a neutral stance as the large build up of short GBP/USD positions would cause losses if the UK opts for remaining in the EU. Finally we are neutral on L/S Credit and overweight Fixed Income Arbitrage”, conclude the Lyxor AM team.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Pictures of Money. Let the World’s Leading Companies Work for You
Quality global franchises often have strong disciplined business models which can provide some certainty in uncertain markets. They tend to create enduring competitive advantages, such as strong brands, patents, licences and copyrights and high barriers to entry. This means they tend to create some certainty around their profitability and cash flows.
Given the recent uncertainty in markets, many investors are looking for investments that are likely to perform well in a lower return world and have good defensive characteristics.
We believe the Investec Global Franchise Fund neatly fits that requirement. The types of companies it invests in have proven how their competitive advantages have helped them secure pro tability and income streams over the long term.
As the chart below shows, the Investec Global Franchise Fund has participated meaningfully in strongly rising markets, outperformed in moderate markets, displayed excellent defensive characteristics in falling markets and, most importantly, provided strong outperformance over the long term. The Fund has achieved this with relatively low levels of volatility since inception.
Photos: Old Mutual's Conference in Punta del Este, Uruguay. Old Mutual: "The High Levels of Political Risk Are the Key Driver behind the Pessimistic Sentiment in the Market"
The second Old Mutual Global Investors investment conference in Latin America began in mid-May. On the 12th and 13th of May, Chris Stapleton, Head of Distribution in Americas, Andrés Munho, Head of Sales in Latin America, Florida and Texas, and Santiago Sacias, Regional Manager in Southern Cone, met with more than 60 investment professionals from Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru, in Punta del Este under the banner “Global thinking, Local understanding”.
Following an overview of the capabilities and strategy of the British fund management company, a discussion panel among the five fund managers attending the event, was moderated by renowned Uruguayan economist Michele Santo. Major themes for the evening were China, the stimulus policies of the European Central Bank, market sentiment and its divorce from fundamentals and political risks which threaten markets with the arrival of Bréxit, as well as the presidential elections in the United States.
The first round of questions began with concerns about the continued low oil prices and a weaker dollar, and how these two factors could have affected the Chinese economy. Josh Crabb, Head of Asian Equities and Principal Portfolio Manager at Old Mutual Pacific Equity and Old Mutual Asian Equity Income, commented that the fact that oil prices remain low is positive for Asia: “The fact that oil prices have stabilized at these levels is also important because investors use the price per barrel as a measure of risk. As per the US dollar, whatever happens with the path of rates in the normalization process, I believe this is already taken its toll in the market and that investors have adjusted for that. If you go to Indonesia and India, you can pick up the best part of 10 cents bond yield around the world, as pretty impressive as it is in Brazil, and I think, once you start seen currency stability, people are going to start chasing those yield down again”.
Ian Ormiston, fund manager at Old Mutual European Smaller Companies (Ex UK), added his insight into the behavior of oil following interviews with the management teams of oil service companies: “Because we have a very deep deflation in the cost curves, decisions have been deferred. One of the companies with whom we met last week is very confident that they will see a sudden recovery in the projects, but at the same time they are telling their clients that they may get the same project next year 20 % cheaper. So as I putted to the company’s CEO, ‘if you can get it a 20% cheaper, why not do that?’ to what I really received no response.” Ian is confident that the industry related to shale oil will recover if the oil price continues to strengthen; and he believes it is conventional crude oil which will face more challenges, once it reaches a threshold where there is a risk of delay in project margins.
What is the outlook for the Chinese economy?
On returning to the China issue, as a major player in the global economy, Josh Crabb revealed the two factors which in his opinion are most relevant in order to understand what is happening in the Asian giant’s economy: “Ironically, not as much is happening in China as people think. I think the reality is everything happens at a much slower path that people gives a credit for. From my perspective, there are a couple issues to consider: the first is the currency, let’s put what actually happened into context, we had a currency that was pegged to the dollar. Chinese authorities announced that, going forward, the Renmimbi would be linked to a basket of currencies, but did not really specify what currencies would make up this new basket, the only two options were the yen and the euro, both of those currencies depreciated suddenly, authorities made a one-time adjustment, and the whole world panicked.” Josh is confident that from now on, greater communication by the Chinese government will provide more clarity and intra-day variations, so this problem will disappear with time, now that the levels of speculation in the yen and the euro have drop off.
Josh Crabb’s second concern is the real economy and the excess credit perceived by a large part of the market’s participants: “Many people believe that the Chinese economy is back to a debt driven disaster because they are only looking at the credit data, but considering how credit works in China, where banks receive a quota on how much lending they can do over the course of a year, if they can lend at the beginning of the year or at the end of the year at the same interest for the whole year, the more likely is that they are going to try to lend at the beginning of the year, and as a result there is seasonality at the beginning of the year, and then comes back off again “. In relation to where the government’s stimulus measures are being directed, Josh insists that it’s not being spent on building ghost cities or bridges that lead to nowhere, but on real projects: “The stimulus is being directed at things as simple as metro systems, and the question that arises is, ‘how many metro systems can be built?’ That is because people do not appreciate that there are 190 cities with a population of over one million people in China, which involves the construction of 190 metro systems, a very significant figure”.
Another factor that is changing Chinese society is concern about pollution, five years ago nobody cared, they are now more aware about the high levels of pollution and require large investment amounts.
The subject of the conversation then changes, beginning a discussion regarding the return of high levels of volatility to markets, Justin Wells, Investments Director on the Global Equities team, who is involved in the management of the fund Global Equity Absolute Return (GEAR), a Market Neutral strategy that is the one flagship funds of Old Mutual, among other strategies,commented: “One of the areas which is more difficult to understand when assessing the environment in which we invest, is the fact that North America has seen the highest levels of volatility according to our indicators; and the greatest deal of pessimistic sentiment, a fact which is contrary to the economic growth embedded in that great nation, in that great economy. There are a lot of strange things happening in the markets today.” For Justin, this volatility has returned to stay for a while, but the positive side is that it can create opportunities for the active investor, which is the approach that his team is taking for the forthcoming months ahead.
ECB’s Purchasing Program
As for the effectiveness of the latest measures announced by Mario Dragui, Bastian Wagner, the fund manager who, along with Christine Johnson, makes the investments decisions on the structure of the Old Mutual Monthly High Yield Bond, expresses his opinion on the market reaction to the European Central Bank’s purchases program, which includes the purchase of corporate bonds: “I think the market was quite surprised by the magnitude of purchases announced with the new measures. When you think about it, the most challenging part will be to buy between 3 and 5 additional trillion on top of established government bonds purchases every month. They explicitly expressed that they wanted to buy investment grade debt denominated in Euros and up to 70%, which represents a large amount when taking into consideration that 5 billion Euros represent almost 2% of the all eligible market.”
Bastian refers to the generalized narrowing of spreads in the investment grade bond markets, but mentions that the effect on speculative grade bonds will be greater. He also points out several issues that have yet to be answered, such as what the effect of a new rate cut may be on the real economy, and what would happen if any of the bonds purchased by the European Central Bank loses its investment grade.
Meanwhile, Huw Davies, co-manager for the Old Mutual Absolute Return Government Bond fund said to be quite impressed with the ECB’s performance: “We believe that the program of the European Central Bank is aggressive and most likely to work. We have already seen some of these effects in falling unemployment rates, which really were at very high levels”.
Complementing previous opinions, Ian Ormiston pointed out that it is important to mention that, for the first time, the Central Bank recognizes that there is a problem in the European banking system, particularly within the Eurozone: “The negative interest rates are compressing spreads and are causing issues for the banks. It’s good that it is good that they now are talking about it, because the debilitation of bank credit is probably the biggest problem in Europe”.
Investor sentiment and divorce from the fundamentals
When asking Ian about the sentiment of the management teams of the companies in which he invests, the divorce between investor sentiment and fundamentals rapidly arises: “It’s amazing the way it is evolving. Especially, when comparing the first quarter reports to the end of year reports three months earlier, a time when CEOs were not providing guidance or giving very cautious guidance. Then the market fell, influencing the opinion of those who thought that Europe was heading back into a recession.”
Ian Ormiston mentions the case of the French economy as a symptomatic case of the entire European economy. In which most investors talk about France as a country which will never grow, and for which bad sentiment is developing due to the lack of proposals for economic reforms by the French government: “Just when everyone had given up on France, its economy begins to grow, fantastically, but not dynamically. Many equities basically reflected no growth at all; but growth is starting to come back. In France, one of the biggest impediments for growth are the labor laws which have really affected large companies. While small companies can more easily hire and fire, they can also help large companies by providing them with employees who are not necessarily included in their payroll.”
Meanwhile, Bastian Wagner compares the differences between the European and US markets, amongst which there is a curious divergence. While during the past four years the United States has seen significant activity in projects of M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and private equity; in Europe, this activity has either decreased or remained flat. “In Europe, we have not seen many private equity firms entering the market, making purchases, or with big M&A operations, which is a sign of lack of confidence. Which raises the question of whether the ECB’s measures are sufficient for the company directors to sit and decide whether an investment project should be executed, or whether maybe we need to go a step further, and the government should provide confidence to the private sector.”
But this lack of confidence doesn’t only occur in developed markets, Josh Crabb comments that sentiment towards emerging markets has been quite pessimistic for a long period of time, so that current valuation levels are very low. “Current levels are as low as they can be in a world without crisis. So, in that respect, they are quite negative, but the interesting part comes when we consider the positioning in stock. During the last six months we have seen that commodities stocks rallied a 100% to 200%, we have seen markets like Brazil which, with the wonderful news of the ‘impeachment’, rallied 50% in the course of three weeks. And most investors have missed it, which is a clear indicator of how extreme the sentiment is, therefore, a simple little event which makes the current situation somewhat less bad, can really change the market.”
Crabb also adds that perhaps it’s time for fiscal policies to begin to step in. In his opinion, fiscal policy tends to benefit emerging countries and obtains better results for the majority of the population by redistributing wealth.
As for the political risks facing the markets, Huw Davies believes that it’s unlikely that the UK exits the European Economic Community. For the fund manager, much of the risk of that event has manifested in the currency, the sterling pound. As the date of the consultation approaches, the strategy in which he participates will be distancing their exposure to the event, as it is an event of a binary nature. As for the US presidential elections, he admits to not having a sure bet: “Six months ago nobody imagined that Trump would get the Republican nomination, currently everything looks possible.”
Finally, Justin Wells refers to the role that these events are playing in terms of market sentiment. “All regions where we have positions are in pessimistic sentiment territory, the higher levels of political risk are the key driver behind that.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Russ Oxley. Old Mutual Global Investors Strengthens Absolute Return Government Bond Team With New Hires
Old Mutual Global Investors, part of Old Mutual Wealth, announces that, as a consequence of a difference in opinion regarding future strategic direction, Russ Oxley will leave the business with immediate effect. Old Mutual Global Investors would like to thank Russ for his valuable contribution in supporting the launch of the ARGB capability.
Adam Purzitsky and Paul Shanta have been appointed Co-Heads of the Absolute Return Government Bond team, reporting to Paul Simpson, Investment Director.
Adam and Paul joined Old Mutual Global Investors in early 2015 along with the other members of the ARGB team. They have been instrumental in the management and development of the Absolute Return Government Bond strategy over the last seven and eight years, respectively.
Old Mutual Global Investors also announces the enhancement of the ARGB portfolio management team with the appointment of two highly experienced investment professionals, Mark Greenwood and Peter Meiklejohn. Both Mark and Peter have already made valuable contributions to the ARGB team during the time they have been working alongside the team as consultants. These appointments bring the total number of portfolio management professionals working on the ARGB strategy to six, supported by two additional specialist investment professionals.
Supported by the rest of the team, Adam and Paul will continue to co-manage the Old Mutual Absolute Return Government Bond strategy. Their focus will remain on meeting clients’ expectations and delivering the outcomes and investment journey clients expect. Adam and Paul were among the first members of the team to join Old Mutual Global Investors, and were instrumental in the pre-launch preparation, as well as actively managing the strategy since launch in October 2015. The managers will continue to employ exactly the same investment process and philosophy that they have been at the heart of developing over many years.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Scott Beal. Least-Loved Cycle Looks Less Lovely
We are now more than six years into one of the longest-lived — though least-loved — business cycles in history. Markets have shown a much greater ability than the public to shake off the effects of the global financial crisis. Why is this? If you listened to the pundits, you’d think they have been held aloft by nothing but a combination of hot air and central bank liquidity. But that couldn’t be further from the truth. It has been profits, not punditry, that have driven markets to new highs. Since the market bottom in early 2009, the value of the S&P 500 has tripled. Not coincidently, S&P 500 company profits have tripled as well.
Earnings of large multinational corporations — like those in the S&P — have been propelled by the productive use of labor and capital, rapid asset turnover, low energy costs and, yes, the historically low cost of capital, thanks to accommodative central bank policies.
In recent months, however, profits have begun to flag, and with them my confidence in the market’s upward trajectory. The drag on profits and earnings seems to be coming from two sources. The first is excess global manufacturing capacity, particularly in China. In the developed markets, production is quick to respond to changes in demand. Demand in China does not respond as quickly, given the political realities there. This leaves excess capacity in the global economy, which tends to depress pricing power, not just for Chinese companies but worldwide.
A second factor that has weakened profits is tepid consumer demand. I had expected the “energy dividend” from spending less on gas and home heating to translate into greater demand from consumers in developed markets. But we’ve actually seen a significant percentage of that energy dividend going into savings rather than back into the economy. At the same time, energy costs have begun to rise, suggesting more downward pressure on consumer demand down the road. That could further crimp topline growth for many companies.
That lack of topline growth has translated into weak capital expenditures at big global companies. That’s a worrisome sign, since in my view, capex is the main driver of jobs and profits.
Here are the conditions I’d need to see before venturing back into riskier assets:
While we wait to see if these occur, I’d advise investors to be cautious with new money. My concern is not that recession is imminent in 2016, but that we’re facing a prolonged profits drought which could disrupt margins and returns. This could become the new theme for the final years of a market cycle that, while remarkable, could become even less loved.
James Swanson is Chief Investment Strategist at MFS Investment Management.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Donkey Hotey. US Market Watch: The Fed’s New Policy Tool
Markets have been too sanguine about the chances of further rate hikes this year. For the past three months, the futures market has been pricing in only a one-in-five chance of a second rate hike in June. In response, the Federal Reserve appears to have stepped up its rhetoric to change those expectations. The minutes of the April meeting made it very clear that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members believed it appropriate to raise rates again in June.
What could change the call slightly is the timing of the “Brexit” referendum in the UK just a week after the 15 June FOMC meeting. While the June rate hike probabilities have remained steady, the likelihood of a July move has shot up well above 50% at the end of May – suggesting markets are catching up with the Fed.
This doesn’t mean we are now likely to see a typical market reaction to a Fed rate hike cycle. The use of forward interest rate guidance – in the form of the “dot plot” of FOMC members’ policy rate forecasts – has given the Fed a second set of interest rates to manipulate, a policy option that didn’t exist in the past. When the committee raised actual policy rates in December, it also cut future interest rates by lowering the number of expected rate increases by 50 basis points. The market reacted in kind; the dollar fell and stocks rose.
We expect the Fed will raise actual policy rates in June or July – depending on Brexit risk. But we also expect the Fed to cut interest rates again in the second half of the year. Right now, the dot plot still signals four rate hikes in 2017 and five in 2018. So there is plenty of room to cut future interest rates to offset macro volatility or, potentially, excessive tightening of financial conditions.
Market moves have been mostly positive
US equities continued to push higher in May despite growing conviction of a summer Fed rate hike and lingering Brexit risk. The US economic news flow may still not be convincingly bullish. Yet the picture that is emerging two months into the second quarter supports our thesis of a growth reacceleration after an extended six-month period with GDP growth trending well below the previous 2.1% recovery average. The S&P 500 index gained nearly 2%, driven by energy, materials, and financials. Bond returns were essentially flat. The Barclays Aggregate index was unchanged for the month, though performance year-to-date is still ahead of the S&P 500.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were little changed. Yet shorter maturity yields increased notably, reflecting the possibility of another Fed rate hike. High yield bonds posted small gains, enough to push returns to 8% for the year. The dollar enjoyed one of the strongest month in the past four years. The Fed’s trade-weighted dollar index was up 3%, and the DXY index, which includes only the six most traded currencies, was up 2.6%. West Texas Intermediate oil prices continued their upward move, albeit at a much slower speed compared with that in April and March, briefly touching the $50-per-barrel mark intraday before retreating.
The economy looks good, right?
US equity markets seem cautiously optimistic about the outlook, and the economic news flow is starting to tilt in that direction. However, we are not without our fair share of question marks. Seasonality has played a major role in recent years, leading to slower growth at the start of the last three years, averaging just 0.2%. In the last two years, growth reaccelerated back to 3% in the remaining three quarters. That is, essentially, what we are looking for again this year. Retail sales, industrial production, and virtually all housing-related numbers rebounded in April, starting the quarter on the expected bullish note. What’s more important is that strong April household spending suggests consumption, still 69% of total GDP, is on track to grow between 3% and 3.5% this spring. This sets the stage for the now-familiar spring and summer growth reacceleration.
One question mark arises from business and consumer surveys. If economic prospects are looking good, then why are they more consistent with sluggish economic growth? The average of the two main US consumer confidence indexes reversed the surprise April decline, but this doesn’t signal a material improvement over the previous six months. The average of the two manufacturing purchasing managers indexes improved marginally, but at 51 is barely trading above the expansion/ contraction threshold for the sector. Weak business activity was partly the result of a profit recession last year. Reported profits fell more than 3%, the first decline in seven years. Profitability improved marginally in the first quarter, with domestic non-financial corporate profits up about 4%. Yet financials and profits from overseas operations continued to contract, highlighting the difficulties of a low-interest-rate environment and weak trade growth.
The economy is on track for the second-quarter US growth reacceleration we have been forecasting for a while. However, there is a question mark here, too: Can that stronger pace can be sustained in the second half of this year? US business activity needs to rebound more convincingly to make the stronger growth trend stick. Yes, housing activity is picking up again, but the sector is too small to make a significant difference. Purchasing managers indexes show little evidence of a global growth bounce, so trade will remain a headwind. Rising inflation could be the next problem if wages and income don’t keep pace. We already saw a noticeable slowdown in real disposable income growth in April. The Fed should be careful what it wishes for.
The outlook is warming up for summer
Now that we are through the bad news of the winter quarter, US GDP growth is set to pick up again. Our forecast of a 3% average between April and December is well above the 2.3% consensus among the economists polled regularly by Bloomberg. US inflation has moved up and is likely to trend between 1% and 1.5% for much of the rest of the year. Traditionally, rising policy rates would also push up bond yields. Yet we see a dichotomy between rising actual rates, but likely falling future policy rates, and the pull from extremely low government bond yields in the eurozone and Japan. This means 10-year Treasury yields are likely to remain range-bound between 1.75% and 2.25% for the rest of the year.
Markus Schomer is Chief Economist at Pinebridge Investments.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Wajahat Mahmood. Frontier Markets: Kenya and Their Overcoming of the Infrastructure Deficit
Before the team lead by Stephen Bailey-Smith with Kenyan policy makers at the African Development Bank Annual meetings, Global Evolution was positioned long duration in the local bond curve, and overweight in the Eurobonds. However, after their meeting, they reinforced “our constructive sentiment towards the country’s longer-term prospects and happy with our investment positions.”
The key message from Kenya’s policy makers is that the high twin deficits are a necessary short-term evil in order to overcome the country’s infrastructure deficit. The strategy is being broadly practiced across the African continent. “But Kenya is one of the few countries where we believe it will proceed without jeopardizing macroeconomic stability.” Says Bailey-Smith.
“Our view is not uniformly held by the market and/or the rating agencies, who are concerned by the rate of debt accumulation, especially ahead of the elections in August 17.Certainly, the plan to spend KES45bn (USD450m) on elections discussed during our meetings does seem a tad excessive and reiterates for us one of the key negatives for the credit: the deeply ingrained ethnic fault lines in the political system, which raise governance costs and have arguably been exaggerated under the shift towards more local government.” He explains.
For the strategist, it is important to note that Cabinet Secretary Rotich will deliver the final budget to parliament In June and we suspect it will be more constrained than the April draft, which proposed a budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP. Moreover, the outcome for FY15/16 looks more like a deficit of 6.9% of GDP rather than the planned 7.9% of GDP reflecting the ongoing struggle to deliver on spending pledges. “We remain reasonably confident that the government will not allow their debt financing positon to become disorderly. Crucially, there appears to be a couple of prudent guidelines including recurrent spending being met by revenue and debt in NPV terms not exceeding 50.0% of GDP.”
Since the provisional budget was released there also appears to have been a change in the plans for deficit financing with more coming from concessional and less from commercial sources. Some 40.0% will come from domestic borrowing. Of the 60.0% external borrowing, some 46.0% will have a concessional element. “It is also important to take into account the huge investment spending going into the Single Gauge Railway which has a budget of around KES180bn or 2.6% of GDP. We remain reasonably constructive on the combination of the revamped rail and port facilities, plus the marked progress in energy generation and distribution to deliver significant productivity growth to the economy.”
Certainly this was the view of the relatively new CBK Governor Njoroge, who took up his position after nearly 20 years working at the IMF as a macroeconomist. Well known for his strict religious lifestyle and tough stance on corruption, “his appointment is positive not least because it demonstrates the President’s priorities” says Bailey-Smith.
Interestingly, the Governor feels the recent decline in the C/A deficit to 6.8% of GDP in 2015 from 9.8% of GDP in 2014 will continue despite the large fiscal deficit. He expects the C/A deficit to be around 5.5% in 2016 and 5.8% in 2017.
The improvement comes from a combination of lower imports (especially fuel), higher service and remittance inflows, albeit the improvement is partly due to better measurement. Interestingly, there have also been upward revisions to the FDI numbers suggesting the country now runs a much smaller basic balance deficit. He also suggested foreign holdings of local debt were a very minor 7.0% of total, suggesting limited currency vulnerability from global market risk.
“The reasonably contained BOP suggests continued currency stability, which should allow inflation to fall further and allow the CBK to continue easing monetary policy in coming months.” Bailey-Smith concludes.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Robert S. Donovan. Asia is Primed for Innovation
The massive buying power of Asian consumers has far-reaching significance, especially for aspiring entrepreneurs focused on ground-breaking new products. Innovators have existed in every market in Asia, most notably in South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. However, the overall value created has been constrained by their smaller market size since such homegrown inventions have been unique to their domestic markets. Today, this has completely changed, explained Michael J. Oh, CFA, portfolio manager at Matthews Asia. Key innovators in Asia now target their own regional market—and Asia’s middle class is quite homogeneous in many respects, meaning they may share similar cultural backgrounds, tastes and aspirations. Let’s look at South Korea’s cosmetics industry for example.
Human resources, another key source of competitiveness for innovators in Asia, is something that tends not to be in short supply in Asia. Each year, a highly educated workforce of millions hails from North Asian countries and India. South Korea’s young population, for example, has a notably high proportion of college graduates and the country has one of the highest ratios of higher education degrees earned among OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries and the highest in Asia for those aged 25-35, according to the OECD and UNESCO.
According to the expert, asian companies are also increasing spending on research and development. In fact, many policymakers in Asia have made innovation a national, strategic priority. The global share of research and development spending by Asian companies surpassed that of U.S. companies in 2011, and the gap continued to widen in 2015. The effort has given rise to numerous research hubs equipped with good infrastructure and skilled workers. In this way, Asian companies are increasingly laying firm foundations for future innovation.
“An important trend we are seeing is innovation moving from East to West. This is most evident in the Internet services and consumer products space. For example, Amazon recently started a one to two-hour delivery service in some key cities in the U.S., and is investing in developing its own logistics as a key competitive advantage. This business strategy was started by leading Chinese entrepreneurs and companies early on. Initially, many investors had doubts over its potential for success, but the development of one’s own logistics has in fact become a global trend among many e-commerce companies. And most leading e-commerce companies in India and South Korea are making related investments in order to improve customer experience and satisfaction levels. It seems Amazon is also taking a page from this approach”, point out Matthews Asia portfolio manager.
In another area of prominence, China is leading the world in financial technology and, along with Indonesia, has among the highest levels of mobile banking penetration. In fact, Internet companies in China are penetrating deeper into the everyday lives of Chinese consumers in almost every respect. Internet companies have touched upon just about every major life purchase—from cars to homes to insurance products. Mobile Internet penetration in China is among the highest in the world, and China is often leading the innovation, creating new markets and services in the mobile Internet space.
“Asia can also claim to lead in some areas of traditional technology products, including next-generation display technology, known as organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), that will power future mobile devices and TVs, as well as lithium batteries—essential for many mobile devices and electronic vehicles. Almost all lithium batteries used in electronic vehicles today are made by companies based in Asia, and Asian companies are spearheading the development of next-generation batteries to power the global electronic vehicle industry”, explained Michael Oh.
Innovation is Key for Growth and Survival
Innovation can create value even during slower growth environments, which is important at this juncture since Asia in general is likely to transition more gradually, explained the strategist. For example, South Korea has long been a pioneer in the e-commerce industry and its market has become relatively mature with among the highest penetration rates in the world. It also has the highest e-commerce penetration rate in the Asia Pacific region with an online shopping reach of approximately 62%. But even in this relatively mature market, new companies with inventive marketing and distribution strategies have been able to grow exponentially—in one instance, one created a market value of approximately US$5 billion in just five years. This is particularly relevant to Asia today as many parts of the region adjust within a slower growth environment.
But for Oh, it is also important to note that innovation is not only limited to technology industries. Innovation can happen in any industry—old or new. Let’s look at transportation for example. Transportation is an old industry but a newcomer like the ride-sharing service Uber has completely changed the industry. Uber disrupted the century old industry with new ways of providing transportation services enabled by new mobile technology. Within the tourism industry, companies like Airbnb are doing the same, enabling people to capitalize on under-utilized assets by connecting the supply and demand of accommodation rentals via mobile technology. This is just the beginning for the ways in which technology is reshaping older industries.
Even in the automobile industry we are witnessing tremendous changes brought by electronic vehicles (EV). EV is likely to have far-reaching impacts beyond the automobile industries as it influences energy consumption patterns.
Oh highlights in a recent post in Matthews Asia blog that Japan and China, the region’s major auto powerhouses, have been ramping up the competition over the type of technology and power that may be adopted as the global standard for electric cars. China, which has famously been grappling with pollution issues, now has many locally funded EV start-ups that hope to usurp Tesla Motors. Beijing has been pushing for EV autos, offering buyer incentives, compelling global automakers to share their technology, and opening its market to tech firms. Japan, on the other hand, has invested heavily in fuel-cell technology and infrastructure as part of a national policy for the zero-emission fuel to power homes and vehicles.
Looking Ahead
The explosive growth of China’s emerging middle class brought sweeping economic changes to the global economy and these changes are still ongoing. Asia also has many emerging countries whose middle class has not yet entirely emerged. The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, is a compelling area of focus for future growth. With an overall population of about 625 million, this region holds exciting potential despite still being relatively poor with an overall middle class that is still relatively underdeveloped.
“We believe that Asia innovators can create value for Asian consumers and long-term shareholders on the back of a vast market that has been created in the Asian marketplace. Companies that can create unique products and services that are well-suited to meet the demand created by rising disposable incomes and improving lifestyles should be well rewarded by the market, and we believe this will continue to foster more innovation. This virtuous cycle will be one of the major trends in Asia going forward and be a sustainable value creator for long-term investors”, concluded.
