Total assets managed by the top 100 alternative investment managers globally reached $3.6 trillion up 3% on the prior year, according to research produced by Willis Towers Watson. The Global Alternatives Survey, which covers ten asset classes and seven investor types, shows that of the top 100 alternative investment managers, real estate managers have the largest share of assets (34% and over $1.2 trillion), followed by hedge funds (21% and $755bn), private equity fund managers (18% and $640bn), private equity funds of funds (PEFoFs) (12% and $420bn), funds of hedge funds (FoHFs) (6% and $222bn), infrastructure (5%) and illiquid credit (5%).
The research also lists the top-ranked managers, by assets under management (AuM), in each area. Data from the broader survey (all 602 entries) shows that total global alternative AuM is now $6.2 trillion.
Luba Nikulina, global head of manager research at Willis Towers Watson, said: “Institutional investors continue to focus on diversity but not at all cost. While inflows into alternative assets continue apace, investors have become more mindful of alignment of interests and getting value for money. This has contributed to a further blurring between individual ‘asset classes’, as investors increase their focus on underlying return drivers with the ultimate objective of achieving true diversity and making their portfolios more robust in the face of the increasingly volatile and uncertain macroeconomic environment.”
The research – which includes data on a diverse range of institutional investor types – shows that pension fund assets represent a third (34%) of the top 100 alternative managers’ assets, followed by wealth managers (19%), insurance companies (10%), sovereign wealth funds (6%), banks (2%), funds of funds (2%) and endowments & foundations (2%).
The research shows, among the top 100 managers, that North America continues to be the largest destination for investment in alternative assets (50%), with illiquid credit and infrastructure being the only asset classes where more capital is invested in Europe. Overall, 37% of alternative assets are invested in Europe and 8% in Asia Pacific, with 5% being invested in the rest of the world.
According to the research, Macquarie Group is the largest infrastructure manager with over $95bn and tops the overall rankings, while Blackstone is the largest private equity manager with over $94bn and the largest real estate manager with also almost $94bn. In the ranking Bridgewater Associates is the largest hedge fund manager with $88bn and Blackstone is the largest FoHF manager with almost $68bn. Goldman Sachs is the largest PEFoF manager with almost $45bn and M&G Investments is the largest illiquid credit manager with over $33bn. PIMCO is the largest commodities manager with $10bn, the largest manager of real assets is TIAA with over $7bn and LGT Capital Partners is the largest manager of Insurance-linked investments.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments has launched a new, innovative absolute return strategy in form of the Threadneedle Diversified Alternative Risk Premia Fund, following regulatory approval by the CSSF (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) in Luxembourg.
The strategy is designed to capture the excess returns arising from exposure to market anomalies (the ‘alternative betas’ or ‘risk premia’) across all major asset classes (equities, fixed income, credit, currencies and commodities) and all major investment factors (value, style, curve, carry, short volatility and liquidity).
The daily liquid, transparent and diversified UCITS fund is managed by Dr William Landes, Marc Khalamayzer and Joshua Kutin, out of Boston, US, who between them have close to 50 years of asset management experience. The fund managers benefit from access to non-traditional sources of returns as well as macro inputs from Columbia Threadneedle’s wider asset allocation team, meaning that liquid risk premia exposures are tactically adjusted where macro events are believed to influence the holdings.
William Landes, Head of Alternative Investments & Deputy Head of Investment Solutions at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, said: “In the search to maximise and diversify their portfolio returns, institutional investors have often turned to multi-strategy or fund of hedge funds. This strategy offers many of the risk premia attributes present in multi-strategy hedge funds at a much lower cost. Now that tools have been developed which allow financial market anomalies to be cost-effectively packaged, alternative risk premia strategies present an attractive investment solution for institutional investors.”
Dominik Kremer, Head of Institutional Distribution in EMEA and Latin America at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, said: “We believe this is a truly unique offering in the marketplace. Our portfolio managers use advanced portfolio construction techniques, invest in a wide array of different risk premia across all major asset classes and combine this with an active, macro-driven tactical approach. In our minds, our strategy is an innovative solution for institutional investors seeking to both enhance portfolio returns and provide true diversification at a time when economic and financial conditions make investing increasingly challenging.”
Just over a year ago, on July 6th 2015, Old Mutual Global Investors, part of Old Mutual Wealth, welcomed Bill Gross back as fund manager of the $330 million Old Mutual Total Return USD Bond Fund.
The fund seeks to maximise total return consistent with preservation of capital and prudent investment management. Ranking in the 1st quartile, the Fund has returned 7.61% against the benchmark’s return of 6.97%
Heading into the second year of managing this fund under Janus Capital Group, while facing a fairly stagnant economic environment and with the possibility of de-globalisation, Bill said: “Worry for now about the return ‘of’ your money, not the return ‘on’ it. Our Monopoly-based economy requires credit creation and if it stays low, the future losers will grow in number. Until governments can spend money and replace the animal spirits lacking in the private sector, then the Monopoly board and meagre credit growth shrinks as a future deflationary weapon.”
When asked where he was looking for value in the bond market, he added: “Sovereign bond yields at record lows aren’t worth the risk and are therefore not top of my shopping list right now; it’s too risky. Low yields mean bonds are especially vulnerable because a small increase can bring a large decline in price.”
He also commented about his time as an investor, saying: “In an industry driven by facts and figures, stats and claims, here is another; I am heading very close to marking a half century of financial industry experience. Yes, much has changed in those near on five decades but for every challenge there has been an equal measure of opportunities. This portfolio can invest across global fixed income markets with the flexibility to utilise the high conviction views that me and the team have, in order to capitalise on those challenges and opportunities in a balanced way. Each day seems to bring fresh investment prospects, though all viewed with a cautionary caveat at this time.”
Warren Tonkinson, managing director, Old Mutual Global Investors comments: “We were thrilled that we were able to welcome back Bill as steward of this fund, and a year on the performance numbers speak for themselves. The past year has thrown up a number of economic curve balls which Bill and his team have been able to deal with, if not avoid, thanks to their vast experience of managing bonds throughout complex market conditions. Our thanks go to Bill for steering this fund positively through ‘choppy waters’. We look forward to working with Bill and the team for many years to come.”
Nikko Asset Management is launching a Luxembourg domiciled Global Credit Ucits fund on 3 August.
The fund aims to target an excess return of 1.5% against the Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate Index and also has an absolute return target of 4% by investing worldwide in a portfolio of 70-120 corporate bonds. The team adopts an active investment approach based on thorough fundamental research, taking advantage of mispricings in global credit markets.
It is managed by head portfolio manager Holger Mertens and supported by the firm’s Global Credit teams based in London, Tokyo, Singapore, Sydney, Auckland and New York.
Nikko AM has been launching more Ucits funds to its product line-up, to meet global investors’ evolving demand for exposure to diverse products and strategies. This is the latest, following the recent launch of a Japan Focus Equity Ucits and an Asia ex-Japan, Global Equity and Multi-Asset Ucits in 2015.
“We are launching the fund in response to investor need for consistent and sufficient returns in a low yield environment through a diversified and high quality credit portfolio. The need is increasing for a highly skilled active fund management team with truly global resources, and experience in different regions of the world,” said Nikko AM head of Global Fixed Income, Andre Severino.
Long-term success for wealth management firms will in part depend on their willingness to explore collaborations and partnerships with FinTech companies, as well as improve their digital maturity finds the 20th annual World Wealth Report (WWR) released by Capgemini.
According to the firm, wealth management firms are missing the mark when it comes to implementing digital capabilities, and as a result, are putting profits, client, and employee retention at significant risk. They note that up to 56 percent of firms’ net income could be at risk due to client attrition due to lacking digital capabilities. The report also finds that more than half of wealth managers (55 percent) are not fully satisfied with their firm’s digital capabilities and consequently, over a third (39 percent) would even consider looking for employment elsewhere.
“As wealth firms and wealth managers face a number of converging market dynamics, including increased competition from FinTechs, firms need to be making progress on all aspects of their digital capabilities to ensure they remain relevant to clients who may be wooed by their technology-driven competitors,” said Anirban Bose, Head of Global Banking and Capital Markets, Capgemini’s Financial Services Business Unit. “The latest World Wealth Report findings reinforce the need for firms to adapt to meet evolving client and manager expectations alike, as nothing less than a high level of digital maturity will be adequate in the face of digitally-native competitor providers.”
Limited digital maturity despite increased HNWI demand and threat from FinTechs With High Net Worth Individual (HNWI) demand for digital services continuing to increase in areas where FinTechs are strong, such as automated advisory platforms, open investment communities and third party capability plug-ins, wealth management firms cannot afford to fall short in any aspect of their digital strategy. In the past year alone, the report found HNWI demand for automated advisory services has shot up nearly 20 percentage points, from 49 percent in 2015 to 67 percent in 2016. Additionally, 47 percent of HNWIs say they now use peer-to-peer platforms at least weekly to find out about investment ideas.
The correlation between digital maturity and asset acquisition and retention is only expected to increase in the coming years. Seventy-three percent of HNWIs reported that digital maturity is very or somewhat significant in their decision to increase assets with their wealth management firm over the next 24 months, a percentage that increases to 86 percent for HNWIs under 40.
Demand for digital tools runs high but satisfaction among wealth managers runs short Wealth managers have joined HNWIs in expressing demand for digital tools with richer functionality. This was found to be true across all regions and age groups at 81 percent. Yet while wealth managers showcase high demand for digital, firms for the most part have not fulfilled these requests. Less than half of wealth managers are satisfied with their firm’s digital capabilities, despite citing digital tools as valuable in supporting a number of functions, including increased collaboration with clients (86 percent), the ability to better leverage client data to identify growth opportunities (82 percent), and even time savings through reduced paperwork time (82 percent).
Social media and mobile tools were found to be especially lacking, with wealth managers of all ages saying that view prospecting through social media is an important digital capability they require (60 percent), but it was the area with which they are least likely to be satisfied.
Wealth management firms must become digital leaders to achieve success As their role evolves, long-term success for wealth management firms will depend on putting wealth managers at the center of digital disruption, and their willingness to explore collaborations and partnerships with FinTech companies. Engaging wealth managers will be important as more than three-quarters (79 percent) of wealth managers say they would like to pilot new digital tools, and more than half (53 percent) have already lobbied their firm to improve digital capabilities. A surprising amount (42 percent) has even invested their own money to purchase off-the-shelf software in an attempt to plug gaps in their firms’ offerings. Several of the world’s largest firms are currently exploring accelerator programs designed to attract startups interested in collaborating. Other firms are investing in or acquiring FinTechs in an attempt to jumpstart their digital capabilities, especially in the areas of automated advice and investment management services.
The report highlights how the most successful firms will be those that take bold steps to overcome resistance to change and embrace a world that increasingly values digital interactions.
You can explore the interactive report website at the following link.
The adoption of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues into investment decision-making has gone mainstream in 2016. According to Investec, in a low-growth, low-yield and uncertain environment, investors are looking for new tools to drive long-term value creation. For institutions, increased attention has been placed on corporate behaviours and practices which are neither delivering shareholder value nor building sustainable businesses that will enable them to fulfil their fiduciary duty to their stakeholders.
So what has happened in 2016 that has galvanised ESG action? The Paris Agreement on Climate Change in December 2015 has focused investors’ minds on the environment. This is the first global pledge to limit carbon emissions and is the fastest-ratified UN accord to date.
The speed with which the governments of over 175 countries signed the agreement – a little over four months – has added momentum to efforts to integrate environmental factors into investment processes. It has also spurred investors to look for new opportunities in industries to meet the objective of limiting the global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees Celsius (2°C) above pre-industrial levels.
While the focus has been on environmental issues, the UN Sustainable Development Goals also encouraged momentum behind the social aspects of ESG. Several new organisations, such as the Business and Sustainable Development Commission, have formed to plan practical steps to achieving these goals. Increasingly, major asset owners and investment managers are getting involved.
“Poor share price performance and mediocre company results have rallied shareholders into action. Investors have showed a renewed willingness to administer stinging rebukes over top management pay. In the UK, oil giant BP, miner Anglo American, engineering company Weir Group and Irish building materials group CRH all suffered major votes against pay policies. Even major US corporates have not been immune. In April, over a third of voting Citigroup shareholders cast their ballots against the bank’s pay package for top executives.” Investec points out.
The firm also notes that shareholder activism has not just been about executive pay. Investors are also looking more closely at the composition of company boards. There was some disquiet over Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Coca-Cola, as both of these US companies have three board directors that have served for over 15 years, which has contributed to a lack of board diversity and independent thinking. In Europe, auto manufacturer Volkswagen (VW) has been subject to intense scrutiny over its unusual governance structure in the wake of the emissions scandal. VW’s shareholders are beginning to ask whether, after three scandals in 20 years, the company’s supervisory board has the authority and independence to hold management to account. The company’s three largest shareholders, the Porsche-Piëch family, the German state of Lower Saxony and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, currently dominate the board. In June this year, Norway’s giant sovereign wealth fund (the fourth-largest shareholder in VW) joined the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) and around 800 other institutional investors in suing the company over the failure of oversight that led to the emissions scandal.
How will these trends evolve in the years to come? “We expect that shareholders will become increasingly frustrated with boards if performance continually fails to meet expectations. We believe that can only be a force for good. Investment in low-carbon and energy saving technologies will also become an important consideration in the portfolio construction process as governments strive to meet the 2°C target set out in Paris. Even in the oft-neglected social aspects of ESG, we believe there will be momentum as investors seek less-crowded, high-growth areas to drive future returns. Our appointment as manager of the Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund (EAIF), a public-private partnership created to mobilise capital into private sector infrastructure projects across sub-Saharan Africa, is testament to our belief that social benefits are not incompatible with healthy long-term returns.” Investec oncludes.
High levels of risk are associated with a higher potential or return, says one of the principles of investment. However, when you have the possibility to compare these two variables and put them among competitors in their historical performance, what comes out is that there are those who take an additional risk to a level of performance and that some people manage to, with a lower risk, be more efficient and get better results.
Among the Afores you can observe various risk profiles and investment styles. On the one hand, there are those who are mandated to be at the top even if it means taking an additional risk; others are interested in being above average; others just want to be in the average to avoid risk and others which are guilty of being conservative in their results.
Investments are dynamic and what worked yesterday will not necessarily work in the future. Therefore, investment areas have to continually reinvent themselves to improve results.
Yields are just part of the big picture. To see it complete, you need to add risk. In this case, it will be expressed as the value at risk (as measured by the standard deviation of daily quotations which is multiplied by a probability value) to obtain the expected loss with a certain percentage of probability that in this case we place 95%.
Graphing risk and performance To do this exercise we use direct returns (not annualized) of the basic Siefore 2 (SB2) which is the Siefore (Afore fund) which manages the largest amount of assets (36%), equivalent to 50 billion dollars. Additionally, it is focused on federal government and private sector workers whose age is in the range between 46 and 59 years. Therefore, 9 million workers are enrolled in these funds. 17% of assets are invested in equities and the fund has a weighted average maturity of 11 years at May 2016 according to data provided by CONSAR (regulator for Afores).
Three years were chosen because it has been characterized by significant volatility which has demonstrated the ability of the administrator in a changing environment. The Mexican government bond M23 (due in 2023) in the same period fluctuated between a rate of 5.20% and 6.64%, expressed in prices that has meant a change in the order of 10%.
Based on the standard deviation of historical prices of each of the 11 Afores Value at Risk (VaR) parametric 95% confidence interval was calculated. This means that in 95% of the days of operation, the maximum expected loss percentage is being calculated for each Afore. The parametric VaR is obtained by multiplying the standard deviation of prices period by 1.96%.
The balance between risk and return Plotting risk (horizontal axis or “X”) and performance (vertical axis or “y”) it can be seen that the SB2 Coppel has been the best performing Siefore in the last three years (15.jul-13 to 14 -jul-16) with a VaR of 0.52%. In the graph a vertical line is added from Coppel’s VaR and some Afores are on the left and others on the right side. The left means lower risk and the right is higher risk taking with Coppel as a reference.
The first thing that jumps out at us is that the SB2 Azteca with a degree of risk VaR near Coppel’s (VaR 0.52% of Coppel vs VaR 0.51% of Azteca), paid 4% less than Coppel.
The other point that draws our attention are the two extremes in terms of risk, where on one hand Afore Inbursa appears as the most risk averse (the left side) and Afore Invercap as the highest risk taker (the right side). Inbursa with a VaR of 0.18% paid 10.63%, while Invercap with a VaR of 0.79% had a 15.62% payment. Comparing Invercap with Coppel’s result, it can be said that the risk incurred by Invercap did not pay up, since with two-thirds of their risk, Coppel achieved better results.
In the graph it can be seen that Profuturo and Principal who are in second and third place performance in the period have a small VaR compared to Coppel (about 0.10%) and a yield of between 1.50 and 2% below Coppel. Also, these two Afores did a better risk management than Sura, Banamex and Metlife (in this period) which with a similar VaR had lower returns. XXI-Banorte who also has a VaR similar to this group, had the lowest yield for this level of risk. Their performance is in the second to last position (place 10 of 11) and with a difference of almost 8% vs Coppel. Finally, you have PensionISSSTE who is in position 9 of the 11 Siefores.
In long-term portfolios, exercises like this serve to see if the investment team is doing well or not (in hindsight). Additionally, prospectively, it is important to maintain a constant review of investment scenarios and an analysis of market expectations. In a second plane, it works to determine whether the distribution by asset class (within applicable investment regime) is correct and in a third plane, if the instruments chosen to invest in this asset class are suitable for generating the expected performance. Many times you can have the correct stage and distribution by asset class, but fail in specific assets, for this reason it is important to carry out this exercise routinely and to make the necessary adjustments in time.
China’s first half macroeconomic data supports our view that the country is in the midst of a successful transition from a high-speed, heavy industry-based economy to a consumer and services-based economy, which, while decelerating, will remain the most important driver of global growth. We believe the challenges of continuing this transition will result in gradually slower growth rates and increased volatility, but the risks of a hard landing remain very low.
Winners and Losers in the Transition To understand the trajectory of the Chinese economy, it is important to recognize that this economic transition is creating winners and losers. The services and consumption (tertiary) part of the economy, for example, remains robust and is now the largest part of the economy. This mitigates the weakness of the industrial (secondary) part of the economy, which is shrinking as a share of GDP.2016 will almost certainly be the fifth consecutive year in which the tertiary part of China’s economy will be larger than the secondary part, and the tertiary part is driving an increasingly larger share of economic growth. In the first half of this year, final consumption contributed about 73% of China’s GDP growth, up from a roughly 60% share in the first half of last year, and a 42% share for the full year of 2006.
A Healthy Chinese Consumer The most important actor in this ongoing transition is the Chinese consumer, and we are keeping a careful watch over her health. In the first half of this year, her vital signs were excellent, but we are aware that as she matures, she is slowing down a bit.
China remains, in my view, the world’s best consumer story, with inflation-adjusted (real) retail sales rising 9.7% year-over-year (YoY) in 1H16, compared to a 1.6% pace in the U.S. in June. But that does reflect a modest deceleration, from 10.5% a year ago, because income growth, while still quite fast, is moderating.
The Top Concern: Weak Private Investment First half macro data suggests that the Chinese economy is stabilizing at a healthy pace, led once again by strong consumer spending and a hot (albeit somewhat cooler) housing market. My top concern is anemic investment spending by private firms: they are relatively profitable but are clearly not yet prepared to expand capacity or invest in more automation.
In 14 of the last 16 months, fixed asset investment by private firms—which account for about two-thirds of all fixed asset investment—rose more slowly than investment by SOEs. That trend, driven both by strong government spending on public infrastructure, which is channeled largely through SOEs, and by concerns about industrial overcapacity, reversed an earlier trend: prior to March 2015, investment by private firms rose faster than that of SOEs in 59 of the 60 previous months.
As the property market continues to cool and return to a more sustainable pace, a pickup in private sector capital expenditure will be important to preventing macro growth from decelerating too sharply. Overall, the Chinese economy is likely to continue on the same path as the last 10 years: gradually slower year-on-year growth with greater volatility, but there are no signs of a hard landing on the horizon.
Last year, China accounted for 35% of global economic growth, and if Brexit results in slower growth in the U.K. and anxiety in the developed West and in emerging Europe, the Chinese share of global growth could rise even higher. China—and the rest of the Asia region that Matthews Asia invests in, which (combined with China) accounted for about 60% of global growth last year—is likely to be considered a safe haven for investors, especially relative to European emerging markets.
Nicolas Moreau will join the Management Board of Deutsche Bank, effective October 1, where he will be responsible for Deutsche Asset Management. This decision was reached by the bank’s Supervisory Board at its meeting on Thursday. Moreau is joining from the French insurance company Axa, where the 51 year old has worked for 25 years in a variety of roles, including as Chief Executive Officer of Axa Investment Managers. Most recently he was in charge of the insurance company’s activities in France and served as a member of the Group Management Committee.
At Deutsche Bank Moreau will be based in London and will initially receive a three-year contract. He will succeed Quintin Price, who stepped down in June for health reasons. “Nicolas Moreau has a deep knowledge of the asset management industry, both from a supplier and a client perspective,” Supervisory Board Chairman Paul Achleitner said. “In addition he possesses a wealth of experience as a member of the management board of a complex, global financial institution, providing the ideal basis for further developing Deutsche Asset Management.”
The Supervisory Board also decided to appoint Kim Hammonds and Werner Steinmüller to the Management Board of Deutsche Bank with effect from August 1. Their terms will also initially be limited to three years.
As a result of the addition of Hammonds and Steinmüller, the Management Board of Deutsche Bank will comprise 11 members in future. “With Werner Steinmüller, we have entrusted a highly experienced and well-regarded banker with further expanding our business in Asia,” Supervisory Board Chairman Achleitner said. “He is a long-standing expert in this key growth region.” Achleitner said that Kim Hammonds has succeeded in getting fundamental changes to the bank’s IT systems off the ground in recent years. “She is responsible for a division that is essential for the transformation of Deutsche Bank.”
John Cryan, Chief Executive Officer of Deutsche Bank, welcomed the expansion of the Management Board: “Each of the three new members of the Management Board brings unique experience that strengthens us as a team. I’m pleased that Nicolas will add long-standing asset management experience to our board and that we are able to welcome Kim and Werner, who are both proven experts in their respective areas, to the board.”
Hammonds (49) has been employed by Deutsche Bank since November 2013. Under her leadership Deutsche Bank is executing a fundamental overhaul of its IT systems. Since the beginning of 2016, Hammonds has been responsible for the bank’s entire technology and operations, including digital transformation, information security, data management and corporate services. She will retain her role as Group Chief Operating Officer.
Steinmüller (62) joined Deutsche Bank in 1991. Since 2004, he has been in charge of transaction banking. He will be the first Management Board member in the history of Deutsche Bank to be based in the Asia-Pacific region. Steinmüller will manage business in this growth region from Hong Kong. He will remain in his role as Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Postbank.
José Viñals, the Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has notified IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde of his intention to return to Europe for family reasons after more than seven years at the Fund. He will take up the position as Chairman of the Board of Standard Chartered Bank later this fall.
“I believe José’s selection for such an important position is testimony to the very high regard in which he is held—for his experience, capabilities, and insights on financial issues. I have personally come to rely on his sharp intellect, analytical rigor, and ability to get to the heart of complex matters.” Lagarde said.
“As Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, José has worked tirelessly towards making the IMF a truly macro-financial institution. He has enhanced the Fund’s analytical breadth and depth on a wide range of issues—including monetary policy, macroprudential policy, international banking, and the financial sector. He has also been instrumental in promoting cutting-edge research and raising the profile of the Fund as a thought leader on financial stability,” she added.
Prior to joining the IMF in 2009, José had a distinguished career at the Central Bank of Spain, where he served as the Deputy Governor after holding a number of senior positions and serving on a range of advisory and policy committees at the central bank and within the European Union. A former faculty member in the Economics Department at Stanford University, he holds a Doctoral (Ph.D.) degree in Economics from Harvard University and a Master’s degree in Economics from the London School of Economics.
Viñals has relinquished his responsibilities as Department Director and Financial Counsellor. Ratna Sahay has been named Acting Director for an interim period. The search process to identify a successor to Viñals will begin right away.