The Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Global Fixed Income Team believes the upcoming months, including a full calendar of central bank policy meetings in September, will be key to watch as central banks reconsider their thinking, potentially shaking up the lull in sovereign bond markets.
Markets have been predicting more of the same over the next few months, and there is some chance expectations will not be met, in a bearish way. However, they said, adjustments will likely only result in a correction in government bond markets, as we maintain that the trend in central bank policy will be supportive of spread products and carry strategies. “But we are careful with our duration and do not want to be too long, given how far yields have fallen and how optimistic markets have been on monetary policy”, pointed out.
With moderate global growth and low inflation the most likely path forward and emerging market (EM) fundamentals stabilizing-to-turning, the Team believes EM debt should perform reasonably well.
“We continue to monitor signs that the credit cycle is maturing. However, we believe the strong technical backdrop afforded by easy central bank policy will continue to dominate the global fixed income markets going forward. Investors seeking returns will continue to buy global credit, while U.S. credit will likely outperform, as relatively attractive yields in the country will continue to attract foreign buyers”, concludes.
The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.
All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor.
Any charts and graphs provided are for illustrative purposes only. Any performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal.
Prior to making any investment decision, investors should carefully review the strategy’s / product’s relevant offering document.For the complete content and important disclosures, refer to the pdf above.
Cathy Hepworth, Senior Portfolio Manager at Nordea. Courtesy photo.. "We Favor Select Opportunities in Commodity-Sensitive Africa, in Russia and Kazakhstan, and in Latin America and Asia"
Investing in EM debt needs a new perspective, according to Nordea. “In the current environment, however, we believe that successful investing in EM debt requires a nuanced approach that can capture idiosyncratic relative value opportunities, rather than simply underweighting countries exposed to macro headwinds or specific negative events ”, say Cathy Hepworth, Senior Portfolio Manager and Sovereign Strategist, PGIM Fixed Income, and Matthew Duda, Portfolio Specialist, PGIM Fixed Income. In this interview with Funds Society, they explain their view on the asset class.
How will a possible US interest rate hike affect emerging market debt?
We look for the Federal Reserve to take a measured approach to raising short-term rates which should be positive for EM debt—and the fixed income spread sectors in general—as there will likely be ample global liquidity still searching for yield in today’s historically low global rate environment. The Fed is expected to be appropriately cautious in light of the current combination of: 1) volatile global financial markets; 2) mixed U.S. and global economic data; 3) prospects of persistently low global inflation pressures; and 4) its more limited ability to react to downside shocks at this point.
Regarding the effect on EM debt, the sector has generally performed well during Fed hiking cycles. EM debt produced positive total returns following the start of the Fed hiking cycles of 1999-2000 and 2004-2006. It also outperformed other fixed income sectors for the three years following the start of the 1994-1995 cycle. This largely resulted from the sector’s excess starting yield, U.S. Treasury curve flattening—which we expect to occur again during the next hiking cycle—and the longer-term improvement in sovereign credit quality which significantly dampened default fears.
In the current environment, however, we believe that successful investing in EM debt requires a nuanced approach that can capture idiosyncratic relative value opportunities, rather than simply underweighting countries exposed to macro headwinds or specific negative events.
What are the greatest risks facing an emerging debt fund manager currently?
Current risks include, among others, the potential for a global recession, unexpected volatility from China, or a sudden EM specific or broader developed market political or economic event that drives investors to adopt a more “risk-off” appetite. It’s important to have the resources to research and understand different risks to identify the best opportunities in an individual country. EM fixed income investing is about accruing that knowledge over credit and market cycles.
Is it the right time to move back into emerging market debt with a view to the remaining part of 2016 and next year? Why?
We believe there are attractive opportunities in EM hard currency bonds at present, along with select local bond markets. EM debt has performed well so far in 2016, rebounding from below-average returns in 2015. Year-to-date returns through 31 August 2016 range from a high of about 14.5% for EM hard currency debt to about 7% for EM local currency debt (hedged to USD) and FX. We believe the low yields available in the developed world and the prospect of major central banks maintaining accommodative policies and quantitative easing programs make the valuations in EM compelling. EM quasi-sovereign and sovereign spreads are trading at the wider end of the post-financial crisis range. From a macro perspective, industrial production in EM is rebounding in major EM countries including Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, and Colombia.
Other factors supporting EM debt include a weaker U.S. dollar relative to recent highs, some stabilization in the Chinese Yuan, a recovery in commodity prices, and an attractive valuation environment. Also, EM equities have outperformed developed market equities in recent months, which tends to be a leading indicator of the positive performance potential of other EM assets. Finally, investor inflows into EM debt are providing an added layer of support. When investing in EM debt it’s important to maintain a long-term view. In this manner, investors can benefit over time from market dislocations which create opportunities to buy fundamentally sound assets at a discount.
Where do prices stand at the moment? Are they attractive?
Although EM debt has rallied in recent months, we believe prices are still attractive relative to historical levels. For example, the spread on the sovereign JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index as of mid-September 2016 was +330 bps, which is about +75 bps cheap to the tighter levels reached at the beginning of the second half of 2014 and about +160 bps cheap to pre-global financial crisis levels in 2007. We believe there is still good fundamental value in many individual sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers that trade wide to the index level in spread. Importantly, while some of these issuers may be rated below investment grade, we believe there are numerous opportunities to take advantage of mispriced risk.
In EM, it is often the case that political and policy uncertainty leads to volatility that is not commensurate with an issuer’s underlying fundamental value. It is these sell-offs that often lead to the most attractive opportunities in the sector. For example, there are currently many such opportunities in select “Next Gem” or “frontier” countries in Africa and Asia, as well as larger countries such as Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Venezuela. In the local bond markets, the average yield relative to developed market yields is still very attractive at over 6.25% as of mid-September. A number of EM countries are cutting rates, or are nearing the end of their hiking cycles, which is generally an indicator that rates are poised to rally.
And currencies? Have they bottomed out across all emerging markets?
In EMFX, we believe valuations relative to historic ranges are attractive in select Latin American and EMEA countries. The recovery and stabilization in commodity prices, bottoming out of EM economic growth, improved current account balances, and more benign global interest rate outlook should all support EMFX in the coming months.
Which geographical regions do you like most? Asia, Latin America, Eastern Europe…
Our portfolios are diversified and seek to take advantage of opportunities across multiple EM regions and EM sectors. Currently, we favor select opportunities in commodity-sensitive Africa, in Russia and Kazakhstan, and in Latin America and Asia, including Indonesian sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and local bonds.
On which Latin American markets are you focusing?
We’re finding value in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. We evaluate the broad range of Latin American fixed income markets, including sovereigns, quasi-sovereigns, corporate bonds, local bonds and FX.
After difficult and still ongoing economic and political adjustments, we believe that select Brazil sovereign and quasi–sovereign issuers, including commodity-related quasi-sovereigns, can offer value. In Mexico, we like certain corporate issuers relative to the sovereign debt. In Argentina, the bonds of the larger provinces and energy-related bonds look attractive, along with exchanged bonds of the sovereign. Among smaller issuers, we view the Dominican Republic as an improving credit, and believe that El Salvador bonds are trading at attractive levels relative to default risk. In Venezuela, many bonds trade at levels that are attractive to expected recovery value, and we think very near maturity bonds will be paid.
In local currency bonds, we like the short-intermediate and long-end of the Mexican yield curve. In local Brazil, we look for an interest rate cutting cycle to begin this year and continue into next year. Here, we prefer a mix of nominal and inflation-linked bonds given that real rates are high. Finally, we believe there is value in the Mexican peso given that it is trading cheap relative to fundamentals and when evaluated from a real effective exchange rate perspective.
Nordea has recently registered the fund Nordea – 1 Emerging Market Bond in Chile. Do you believe that emerging debt is an attractive option for Latin American investors?
One of the benefits of investing in EM debt is its diverse geographic exposures and types of securities. A Latin American investor can benefit from the diversity of commodity sensitivities(i.e. exporters and importers), as well as varying industry and country economic growth trends. With more than 60 EM countries to choose from, investors and asset managers can potentially take advantage of numerous relative value opportunities through market cycles. Historically, investing successfully in EM debt entails diversifying risks, having a long-term view, and understanding that even though the markets appear unfavorable at times, EM debt tends to bounce back fairly quickly following a global shock or sell-off.
Youth on smartphones. "Generation Stress"? Today's Youth Wants Everything at Once
The 2016 Credit Suisse Youth Barometer illustrates how the growing variety of goals in life and the more and more widespread use of smartphones and apps are increasingly turning young people into a “stress” generation. The survey also shows that politics on the web works: The fact that political issues can be commented on and discussed online is viewed positively.
The young people surveyed in Switzerland, the US, Brazil, and Singapore want to have it all in life: a career, but with a good work-life balance; to be independent and to work at an international company; to save less, but also own their own home. And with all activities, they are constantly online, communicating with each other, consuming news, playing games, and discovering new apps. This leads to the conclusion that young people today are turning into a “stress generation.”
Politics on the Web Works
Apart from in Singapore, young people’s interest in politics is growing in all the countries surveyed. At the same time, politicians around the world are trying to reach young people more intensively than ever through the internet and social media. A majority of respondents sees it as positive that political issues can be commented on and discussed online: They view this as a benefit for politics. However, young people are also aware of the negative side of the virtual world – above all with regard to so-called “shitstorms” and potentially manipulated political content on Facebook and Twitter. Having said this, there is broad agreement, especially in the US and Brazil, with the statement “Facebook, Twitter, and online comments make politics more interesting and motivate users to become more politically engaged.”
Worries about Unemployment, Terrorism, and Healthcare Issues
In the US, unemployment, terrorism, and healthcare are the most widespread issues. Somewhat contrary to their reputation, young Americans are adapting less quickly to new technologies than their counterparts in Switzerland, for example: Lively use is still made of text messaging, while WhatsApp has barely established itself. Snapchat is also described as less “in” there than in Switzerland.
In Brazil, corruption and unemployment are mentioned by over two-thirds of young people; neither topic appears in the top five in Switzerland. Various results suggest that young people from the South American country have a great interest in digital technologies.
In Singapore, respondents cited inflation and health issues as the second and third most important problems facing their country. The top issue is terrorism. Fear of attacks has increased markedly in recent years: In 2013, this was identified as a problem by just 11% of respondents; nowadays it’s 38%.
Overview: The Ten Most Important Insights from the 2016 Credit Suisse Youth Barometer
Unemployment remains one of the main concerns: The tense economic climate in recent years is also reflected in the Youth Barometer. Job concerns are one of the most frequently cited problems in all countries except for Switzerland.
Fear of terrorism is growing: The many attacks around the world have increased fears of terrorism. In Singapore it comes first, in the US second, and in Switzerland sixth in the worry ranking list. While 13% of Swiss citizens described terrorism as a major problem back in 2010, this has now risen to 23%.
Optimistic view of the future: Despite their concerns, the young people surveyed, who were born between 1991 and 2000, view the future with optimism, although somewhat less than in earlier years. Swiss youngsters display the most optimism (59%). The majority of the youth in Brazil (54%) also expects things to turn out well – but this is down from 67% in 2010. Fifty-two percent are of this opinion in the US and 43% in Singapore.
Credibility of the web decreasing: A large majority is aware that postings on Facebook, Twitter, and the like can be manipulated. And only a minority believes these comments to be honest and genuine (exception: Singapore). There is awareness everywhere that there are so-called trolls on the web, whose intentions are not honest.
Widespread experience of cyber-mobbing: Many of those surveyed reported negative experiences on the internet. 40% in the US, 39% in Switzerland, 33% in Singapore, and 26% in Brazil claimed to have been harassed or even mobbed on Facebook.
Snapchat on the rise: While text messaging is continuing to gain importance in the US and Singapore, it only remains in use by a minority in Brazil and Switzerland. New favorite: Snapchat. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed already make use of the communication service in Switzerland.
Saving for home ownership: Home ownership is the greatest financial desire in all countries. And the low interest environment of the last few years has left its mark. If given 10,000 units of their national currency, the young people would pay less into their savings account than in 2015. Instead, putting money aside to buy a home, buying equities and funds (US, BR, SG), going on vacation (BR, SG, CH), and investing in the family (US, BR, SG) are popular desires.
Many goals in life: Those surveyed have many goals in life, some of which are also contradictory. The following are supported by over 50% in all countries: “a good work/life balance,” “pursuing one’s own dreams,” “home ownership,” “developing one’s own talents,” “trying out different things,” “pursuing a career,” “family with children,” “getting to know many countries and cultures.”
Self-employment is a frequent career aspiration: Questioned about their preferred employer, many young people say they would like to be self-employed. One exception is Switzerland where self-employment is not sought after so broadly. The most popular employers are: 1. Google, 2. SBB, 3. Novartis, 4. Roche, 5. Credit Suisse. The home office is increasingly gaining in popularity: Apart from in Singapore, where working from home has for a long time been most popular, considerably more of those surveyed consider this option to be important than in 2015 in all the countries surveyed.
Established religions continuing to lose ground: Between 22% and 34% of those surveyed describe themselves today as agnostic/atheist/undenominational. Just two years ago it was between 5% and 13%. The established religions are therefore losing ground among those surveyed despite still attracting majorities.
The detailed analyses of the study, including information graphics, can be found at the following link.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrMichel Tulle - LinkedIn. Michel Tulle, New Senior Director of Southern Europe and Benelux at Franklin Templeton
Franklin Templeton has appointed Michel Tulle as senior director of Southern Europe and Benelux.
Tulle, currently based in Buenos Aires, will report from Paris as of January 2017 to Vivek Kudva, managing director of EMEA, and responsible for the coordination and development of the business in this area.
With over 27 years of experience in the financial sector, of which 21 have been within Franklin Templeton, Tulle “will ensure strong leadership in his new role”, the asset manager said.
Co-heads of Italian branch
Antonio Gatta, former institutional sales director, and Michele Quinto, former retail sales director, where also appointed co-heads of the Italian branch as of September 30 2016. In their new role Gatta and Quinto will report to Tulle.
“The appointment of Michele Quinto e Antonio Gatta represents a significant recognition towards our important path of development implemented in recent years on the Italian market,” Tulle said.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: ING Group
. Asset and Wealth Management Sector Seems Oblivious of FinTech Opportunities
PwC’s 2016 Global FinTech Survey ranked the asset and wealth management sector as the third most likely to experience the game-changing impact of FinTech startups. In order to succeed in this new landscape, asset and wealth managers need to adapt and engage with FinTechs.
60%of asset and wealth managers think that at least part of their business is at risk to FinTech. When asked about any type of threat, asset and wealth managers were the least concerned of all financial services industry players. They believe FinTech will have only a limited impact on their businesses, with 61% of respondents expecting an increased pressure on margins, followed by concerns around data privacy (51%) and loss of market share (50%).
Julien Courbe, PwC’s Global FS Technology Leader, says: “Banking and payments industries offer palpable examples of FinTechs changing the financial sector by offering new solutions that are visibly disturbing traditional players. This should be an eye-opener for asset and wealth managers as they are next in line, while their FinTech mind-set is still in its infancy. For instance, over a third (34%) do not yet engage with FinTech companies at all, while collaboration with FinTechs is crucial and will be the only way for the traditional firms to deliver technological solutions at the speed expected by the market. We strongly believe incorporating FinTech solutions will visibly strengthen their market position.”
Data analytics was identified by 90% of the asset and wealth managers as the most important trend for the next five years. Followed by automation of asset allocation as “robo advisors” are putting pressure on traditional advisory services and fees. Unsurprisingly, when it comes to investments asset and wealth managers choose new technologies related to data analytics and automated asset allocation rather than expanding their digital and mobile offerings. Only 31% of asset wealth managers provide their clients with mobile applications, lagging behind all other financial players.
Julien Courbe says: “With ‘robo advisors’ becoming more sophisticated, they create an opportunity for asset managers to target the mass affluent who are looking for cheaper alternatives to receive advice on how to manage their assets. The key is to find the balance between human and technological interaction to create an omni channel experience at the speed expected by the market.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. Luciane Ribeiro Left Santander AM in Brazil
Luciane Ribeiro, Banco Santander Asset Management CEO in Brazil has stepped down after 10 years in the company.
According to Bloomberg, Conrado Engel, chairman of the asset-management business in the South American country, will take over Ribeiro’s role until a new CEO is named.
Brazil is Santander AM’s second-largest market with 54 billion euros ($60 billion) in assets under management and 87 employees, according to its website.
In July, and after 20 months in negotiations, UniCredit and Banco Santander broke off negotiations entered into on 11 November 2015 to combine Pioneer Investments and Santander Asset Management. The merger would have created one Europe’s leading asset managers with around 370 billion euros (almost $400 billion) in assets under management, of which close to 174 were from Santader.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Tony Webster. Deutsche Might Prepare a Public Listing of its Asset Management Division
Deutsche Bank is reported to consider floating its asset management unit, in a bid to boost its cash ratio, amid a multi-billion-dollar charge by the US government over alleged misselling of mortgage-backed securities.
As the Financial Times reports, Deutsche is planning to prepare a public listing of its asset management division, however, an IPO would only take place following the completion of the settlement with US authorities. Deutsche Bank declined to comment on the report.
As of June 2016, Deutsche Asset Management covered €710bn of assets under management and according to its latest annual report, it is one of the strongest performing units, with pre-tax profits increasing by 23%, compared to a struggling investment banking division.
The group has faced a plummet in its share prices following an announcement by US regulators that it faces a $14bn (€12.57bn) fine due to alledgedly misspelling mortgage backed securities. As a result of falling share prices, Deutsche’s market value has halved sicne the beginning of this year.
Other options being speculated for the German lender are an outright sale of its asset management division, an option which has been explicitly denied by Deutsche Bank CEO John Cyran, or to increase the number of shares in circulation, however, the latter is unlikely to be sufficient in covering the scale of litigation charges.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: martathegoodone
. Santander Might be Considering Selling its Stake in Allfunds Business
Santander Asset Management could be weighing options for its holding in its Allfunds Bank investment platform, including a sale of its stake, Bloomberg reports citing people familiar with the matter, which let them know that the discussions are at an early stage and the company may decide to hold on to its stake.
Santander currently owns 50% of the business while Italian Intesa Sanpaolo holds the other 50% stake.
Their sources, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private, believe the entire business could be valued at about 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) and attract interest from private equity firms.
Santander Asset Management is controlled by Spanish Banco Santander and U.S. buyout firms Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic. Santander created Allfunds in 2000 to help financial institutions get access to so-called open architecture funds. Italian lender Intesa acquired a stake in 2004 as part of Allfunds’s international expansion. The company has offices in Spain, Italy, the U.K., Chile, Colombia, Dubai, Luxembourg and Switzerland.
Allfunds reported profit of 69 million euros in 2015, up from 46.4 million euros a year earlier, according to the company’s financial report.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Citigroup. Citi Sells its Consumer Business in Brazil and Argentina
Citi has reached a definitive agreement to sell its consumer banking business in Brazil to Itaú Unibanco, and its consumer banking business in Argentina to Banco Santander Rio subject to regulatory approvals.
The sale in Brazil, where Citi has operated for over a century, constitutes approximately US$2.8 billion in assets for Citi and includes credit cards, personal loans and deposit accounts, as well as Citi Brazil’s retail brokerage business. Citi’s consumer banking operations in Brazil will continue to operate in the ordinary course through the transition to Itaú Unibanco. Upon the conclusion of the transaction, Citi will continue serving clients of its corporate and investment bank, commercial and private bank businesses in the country.
“Brazil is a strategic market for Citi and is an essential part of our footprint and global network,” said Jane Fraser, Citi Latin America CEO. “We have been in Brazil for more than 100 years and we will continue to grow our market leading franchise serving our institutional and private bank clients, leveraging our global presence and generating better returns on our assets and capital for our shareholders.”
The sale in Argentina involves approximately US$1.4 billion in assets for Citi and includes credit cards, personal loans and Citi Argentina’s retail brokerage business, as well as deposit accounts. Citi’s consumer banking operations in Argentina will continue to operate in the ordinary course through the transition to Banco Santander Rio. Citi will continue serving its commercial banking and corporate and investment banking clients in the country.
“Argentina is one of Citi’s most important markets in Latin America and its future is extraordinarily promising,” said Fraser. “We have been in Argentina for more than 100 years and are committed to supporting growth and progress in the country. We will continue to invest in and grow our market leading institutional franchise there as recently announced by our CEO Mike Corbat.”
Meanwhile, last week, Citi announced that it will invest more than US$1 billion in its Mexican business, historically known as Banco Nacional de México or Banamex and now called Citibanamex. Fraser then said, “Citibanamex will honor our rich history in the country while acknowledging that together we offer more talent, experience and ideas that will help enable economic growth and progress for Mexico.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrImran Ahmad. Imran Ahmad Joins Standard Life Investments as Investment Director EMD
Standard Life Investments has added to its team of five emerging market debt specialists with the appointment of Imran Ahmad as Investment Director – Emerging Market Debt (EMD). Imran, who has 12 years’ experience in the industry, joins the company from JP Morgan Asset Management where, since January 2013, he held the role of Currency Portfolio Manager.
Reporting to Richard House, Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income, Imran will be based in London and will have primary responsibility for emerging market currency overlay strategies across the entire EMD suite of funds.
Richard House said of the appointment: “Imran’s appointment reflects our commitment to, and belief in, the long term opportunities the EMD asset class has to offer. Imran’s skill set compliments the team’s approach to managing EM fixed income portfolios, namely high conviction macro based investing. The team which has over 77 years’ experience in the industry, works ‘hand-in-hand’ with the 40 strong fixed income and global emerging market equities teams, allowing us to seek out the best investment ideas and opportunities for our investors.”
Standard Life Investments this week announced the launch of an Emerging Market Debt (EMD) Unconstrained SICAV – the fourth Emerging Market Debt strategy in the suite of EMD products they offer to both retail and institutional investors. The SICAV was launched in response to demand from European investors for access to the increasingly popular asset class and will be co-managed by Richard House and Kieran Curtis.
