Merger Arbitrage Update for November 2018

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Actualización sobre arbitraje de M&A para noviembre de 2018
Photo: William Wan . Merger Arbitrage Update for November 2018

Merger arbitrage performance in November was bolstered by deals that received key regulatory approvals, including “green lights” from the Chinese regulatory authority. Specifically:

  • Rockwell Collins (COL-NYSE) and United Technologies received antitrust approval from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for UTX’s acquisition of Collins. This was the last remaining hurdle for the deal after clearing U.S. antitrust in October. The deal was subsequently completed on November 27 and Collins shareholders received $93.33 cash and 0.37525 shares of United Technologies common stock for each share, or about $30 billion.
  • Aetna, Inc.’s (AET-NYSE) agreement to be acquired by CVS Health received a number of state regulatory approvals in November, culminating with New York Department of Financial Services on November 26. The U.S. DOJ approved the merger in October after the companies agreed to sell Aetna’s Medicare Part D business, the only area in which the two companies competed. The deal closed on November 28, and shareholders of Aetna received $145 cash and 0.8378 shares of CVS common stock for each share, or about $71 billion.
  • Twenty-First Century Fox (FOX-NASDAQ) shares traded higher after Disney received Chinese SAMR approval for its acquisition of Fox. The deal remains subject to Brazilian regulatory approvals which is expected early in the first quarter of 2019. Under terms of the agreement Fox shareholders will receive $38 in cash and Disney shares, as well as one share of New Fox, which will own Fox’s broadcast and cable assets.

 Some new deals announced in November included:

  • ARRIS International (ARRS-NASDAQ), a manufacturer of communications equipment and related products, agreed to be acquired by CommScope Holding for $31.75 cash per share, or about $7 billion. 
  • Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN-NASDAQ), a provider of cloud-based software used to manage electronic health records and medical practices, agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Veritas Capital for $135 cash per share, or about $6 billion.
  • BTG plc (BTG LN-London), a medical technology and pharmaceutical licensing company, agreed to be acquired by Boston Scientific for £8.40 cash per share, or about £3.3 billion.

 We continue to find attractive opportunities investing in announced mergers and expect future deal activity will provide further prospects to generate returns uncorrelated to the market.

Column written by Michael Gabelli from Gabelli Funds

To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of  approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise.  The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach:  free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
 
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
 

 

The US Dollar Should Weaken As Global Growth Converges Again In 2019

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

El dólar estadounidense debería irse debilitando a medida que el crecimiento global vaya convergiendo de nuevo en 2019
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. The US Dollar Should Weaken As Global Growth Converges Again In 2019

The US dollar was a clear winner in 2018 as it was one of the very few assets to register gains. Exceptionally strong US economic growth, political upheavals in Europe and the emerging markets and escalating trade tensions have buoyed the greenback this year.

Softer data in Europe brought on fears of a slowdown in the region and distanced the possibility of seeing a rate hike by the European Central Bank. In Italy, the coalition government of the League and the 5-Star Movement brought forth a budget plan that defied the European Commission and riled investors who feared that an increase in Italian debt would send ripple effects across markets. The pound sterling also weakened against the dollar in the face of the never-ending negotiations to reach a Brexit agreement. Finally, higher interest rates and the trade war between US and China especially affected emerging market currencies, as a more severe slowdown in China would have a direct impact on their economies.

We thought the dollar would weaken in 2018 but we had not foreseen the protracted trade war negotiations nor the outcome of the Italian election. 2018 has been a year of diverging economies, with a striving US on one side and the rest of the world on the other. We think this should change in 2019 as the fiscal stimulus fades in the US and the rest of the world recovers.

The slowdown in Europe was partly due to the normalisation of unsustainable high growth rates in 2017 and temporary factors such as the decline in the auto sector. The implementation of the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure in September may well help to cut carbon emissions, but it also created problems in the production, distribution and storage of vehicles. Nevertheless, Europe is still growing above trend and these temporary factors should dissipate going forward. Furthermore, base effects will become easier and the improvement in the labour market should continue to support domestic demand.

With respect to political risks, Italy cannot go too far in its fiscal deviation as the markets will push yields higher, going against Italy’s own interests. It is precisely for this reason that they have already brought the deficit target down to 2.04%, almost in line with the requirements of the EC. As for the UK, there seems to be a multitude of possible outcomes, including an early general election or even another referendum. But whatever the outcome, eventually the UK will have to reach an agreement as a no-deal Brexit would be too disastrous for its economy.

Regarding emerging markets, we think China will resort to fiscal stimulus policies should the growth rate drop below 6% and, even though the ride could still be rocky, a trade agreement between the US and China should be reached in the best interest of all parties.

Market sentiment towards all these risks is already very negative and a gloomy scenario seems to be priced in. A positive outcome for any one of these issues, therefore, would probably see a downward movement in the dollar. Ultimately, the most important factor for currency movements is the shift in interest rate differentials. The market is only pricing in 40 bp of hikes by the ECB over the next two years, whereas the Fed is nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Consequently, there is ample room for a hawkish surprise on behalf of the ECB.

The main risk to this view is that the dollar may only start to depreciate during the second half of 2019, as political tensions may take time to resolve themselves and the European parliamentary elections in May could prove to be yet another hurdle. 

Column by Jadwiga Kitovitz, CFA, Head of Multi-Asset Management and Institutional Clients of Crèdit Andorrà Group. . Crèdit Andorrà Financial Group Research.

 

Analyzing Women’s Role in the Asset Management Industry

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

A análisis: las mujeres y su rol en la gestión de activos, como clientes y asesores
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Lowes Atlanta Hotel. Analyzing Women's Role in the Asset Management Industry

Financial Advisor magazine invites all advisors interested in women and wealth to attend its 5th annual Invest In Women conference, a national event that explores some of the most thought-provoking issues that face advisors and their female clients.

The 2019 conference will be held April 29-May 1 at the Loews Atlanta Hotel in Atlanta, Ga., and will feature a wide range of speakers on topics that include next-gen advisors, diversity, impact investing, executive women, estate planning, behavioral finance, divorce, client relations, marketing and much more.

“FA’s goal with Invest In Women is to provide a compelling, national forum for advisors to engage on topics that are particularly relevant to women,” said FA’s Executive Editor Dorothy Hinchcliff and Director of Conferences. “IIW has continued to grow each year, and we expect record attendance at our upcoming conference.”

David Smith, FA’s Group Publisher and Cofounder, said he is extremely pleased with the support sponsors have given to Invest In Women. “Leading firms such OppenheimerFunds, Dimensional Fund Advisors and TDAmeritrade, to name only a few, see the value in conveying the message that women advisors and clients are a force that shouldn’t be ignored. The fact that so many of our sponsors are capable of sharing their research and expertise to our content is confirmation of their commitment to the cause.”

Keynote speakers include:

  • Dr. Bernice King, the daughter of Martin Luther King Jr. and Corretta Scott King. As CEO of the King Center in Atlanta, she has continued to advance her parents’ legacy.
  • Lara Logan, a 60 Minutes journalist and war correspondent who faced harrowing experiences covering some of the world’s most dangerous places and who is known for her personal integrity.
  • Lauren Simmons, who has been dubbed the real-life “Fearless Girl,” who became the youngest and only full-time female trader at the New York Stock Exchange. She’s also the second African American woman in history to work as a trader on the floor.
  • Dr. Laura L. Carstensen, cofounder and director of the Stanford Center on Longevity at Stanford University. She has amazing insight on how we can make later life a time of great happiness.
  • Christina Boris, vice president and client research director at OppenheimerFunds, who is the architect of The Generations Project for the firm. Her current studies include advisor sentiment about wealth transfer, next-generation financial advisory practices, the shifting generational needs of high-net-worth families.
  • Marlena Lee, co-head of research for Dimensional Fund Advisors. Lee works closely with Dimensional’s clients on a variety of investment-related initiatives and questions. Previously, she worked as a teaching assistant for Professor Eugene Fama while she earned her Ph.D. in finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

FA’s Inside Retirement conference will immediately follow the Invest In Women conference. In its 10th year, Inside Retirement focuses on the changes clients face as a result of increases in longevity and how that impacts advisory practices. It also provides insight on issues for advisors who provide advice to small businesses on retirement plans, such as 401(k)s.

The events will also offer pre- and post-conference workshops. On April 29, immediately before the Invest in Women conference, FA has assembled a pre-eminent team to answer your key questions on planning for a sale of your practice. Following Invest in Women on May 1 and leading in to Inside Retirement, the ever-popular Susan Bradley, founder of the Sudden Money Institute, will present the workshop “In The Client’s Shoes.”

Registration is now open for both FA’s Invest In Women or Inside Retirement conferences.

Mexico’s Largest Pension Fund Changes CEO

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

La afore más grande de México cambia a su director general
Courtesy photo. Mexico's Largest Pension Fund Changes CEO

The Board of Directors of Afore XXI Banorte has appointed Felipe Duarte Olvera as their new CEO, position he started on Monday, December 10. He replaces Juan Manuel Valle Pereña, who for almost two years led Mexico’s largest pension fund.

According to a statement from the firm, “the appointment is made as an agreement between the partners to promote and strengthen the professional management of Afore XXI Banorte, for the benefit of savers and customers, as well as investors and employees… The mandate for the new CEO is to protect and increase worker’s savings, while generating value for investors.”

Duarte Olvera had been working since January 2016 as Deputy CEO of Infrastructure and Energy at Grupo Financiero Banorte. Between 2013 and 2015, also within the Banorte Financial Group, he was Deputy CEO of Customer Experience. Previously, he was the Undersecretary of Transportation of the Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT), Undersecretary of Competitiveness and Regulations of the Ministry of Economy, and Technical Secretary of the Mexican President’s Economic Cabinet.

He holds a Master’s Degree in Business Administration from Harvard Business School; He holds a degree in Administration and a Public Accountant from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México.

Investec Miami Conservation Awareness: Investec AM’s Commitment with Art And Protecting Wild Life

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Investec Miami Conservation Awareness: el compromiso de Investec AM con el arte y la conservación de la vida salvaje en África
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrCourtesy photo. Investec Miami Conservation Awareness: Investec AM's Commitment with Art And Protecting Wild Life

On December 3rd, Investec Asset Management, preparing for the Art Basel season in Miami, gathered 80 distinguished members of the asset management industry coming from private banks, family offices, and distributors in Miami for their Investec Miami Conservation Awarness. An event featuring David Yarrow, at the InterContinental Hotel.  

David Yarrow is a British fine-art photographer, conservationist and author. He took up photography at an early age and as a 20 year old and some of his pieces have received the highest bid for piece by a living photographer. Philanthropy and conservation are central to David Yarrow’s passion to document the animal and human world in a fresh and creative way.

The event actutioned a piece of art for the benefit of the Tusk Trust, an NGO with a mission to amplify the impact of progressive conservation initiatives across Africa. “For almost thirty years, Tusk has supported forward-thinking and successful conservation intervention in Africa. From the plains of the Serengeti to the rainforests of the Congo Basin, we’re working towards a future in which people and wildlife can both thrive across the African continent.” Says Investec.
 

SEC is Still Undecided About Bitcoin ETFs While Bipartisan Bills Look to Strenghten US’ Position

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Estados Unidos busca regular el uso de criptomonedas y sigue indeciso sobre autorizar sus ETFs
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: Dave McBee CC0. SEC is Still Undecided About Bitcoin ETFs While Bipartisan Bills Look to Strenghten US' Position

Two US congressmen have introduced pieces of legislation designed to prevent the manipulation of cryptocurrency prices as well as ensuring the US becomes a leader in the crypto sphere.

Democratic Representative Darren Soto of Florida and Republican Representative Ted Budd of North Carolina have introduced The Virtual Currency Consumer Protection Act of 2018 and the U.S. Virtual Currency Market and Regulatory Competitiveness Act of 2018. The bills are designed to protect retail investors from price manipulation while also positioning the US at the forefront of the developing industry.

In a joint statement eleased on December 6, the two congressmen emphasized the “profound potential” of cryptocurrencies and blockchain in their ability to drive economic growth.

“Virtual currencies and the underlying blockchain technology has a profound potential to be a driver of economic growth. That’s why we must ensure that the United States is at the forefront of protecting consumers and the financial well-being of virtual currency investors, , while also promoting an environment of innovation to maximize the potential of these technological advances” the congressmen stated.

 One bill directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to describe how price manipulation could happen in virtual markets, then recommend regulatory changes. Another seeks to keep the U.S. competitive in the global industry. They ask the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to come up with recommendations.

On the same day, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) posted an update regarding the approval process for a rule change proposal for the allowance of a bitcoin exchange traded fund (ETF).

The ETF in question is the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust, created in a team up between money management firm VanEck and blockchain company SolidX. The attempt is VanEck’s third at creating a bitcoin ETF. In the update, the SEC said it was delaying its decision until Feb. 29, 2018.

“The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider this proposed rule change,” Eduardo A. Aleman, assistant secretary in the SEC, said in the release.

The last time the SEC postponed the decision on the VanEck SolidX bitcoin ETF, over $9 billion was wiped off the value of bitcoin.Back in the summer, Jan van Eck, chief executive officer of VanEck said: “I believe that bitcoin has emerged as a legitimate investment option, as a type of ‘digital gold’ that may make sense for investors’ portfolios,” since then bitcoin has lost nearly half of its value.

Why The Energy Stock Selloff May Be Overdone

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

¿Por qué las ventas en el sector energético pueden ser exageradas?
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Tina Nord / Pexels CC0. Why The Energy Stock Selloff May Be Overdone

Unless oil prices collapse, energy stocks now appear to be cheap, Russ Koesterich, CFA, Portfolio Manager for the BGF Global Allocation Fund explains.

While much ink has been spilled this year on the rout in emerging markets, and, more recently, the fall from grace of technology stocks, natural resource shares are actually the worst performers year-to-date. The S&P Energy Sector Index is down more than 5%, underperforming the S&P 500 by approximately 900 basis points (bps, or nine percentage points).

More interestingly, although oil prices have dropped sharply in recent weeks, they have not collapsed, unlike in early 2016. West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) is flat year-to-date, but the global benchmark Brent is still up 6%. This suggests that either the recent collapse in energy shares looks overdone or oil prices have further to fall. Consider the following:

1.    Based on price-to-book (P/B) the energy sector is now trading at the largest discount to the S&P 500 since at least 1995 (see Chart 1). Energy stocks are currently trading at roughly a 50% discount to the broader market.

2. The sector also appears unusually cheap on an absolute basis. At less than 1.7x earnings, the current valuation is the cheapest since early 2016 and is in the bottom 5% of all observations going back to 1995.

3. As you would expect, the valuation of the energy sector tends to move (roughly) in tandem with oil prices. When oil prices are lower, the sector’s relative value versus the market also tends to be lower. Since 1995, this relationship has explained approximately 20% of the relative multiple of the sector. Based on oil prices at $60/barrel, history would suggest that the sector should be trading at a 15% discount to the market, not a 50% one.

Valuations hard to justify

As I’ve discussed in many previous blogs, value is a poor market timing tool. Neither cheap relative or even absolute valuations guarantee a bottom. The comparisons against both the broader market and oil prices could simply mean that the S&P 500 and/or oil prices might be too expensive, rather than energy shares too cheap. That said, both the market and oil would have to fall a significant amount to justify today’s sector valuation. As a simple example, if the historical relationship between oil prices and relative valuation were too hold, oil prices could fall to $40/barrel, roughly where they bottomed in 2016, and the energy sector would still appear underpriced.

Finally, there may be another reason to consider raising the allocation to energy shares. Historically, energy stocks have been more resilient than the broader market during periods of rising interest rates and/or inflation. If part of what has dislocated the market this year is the prospect for higher rates and an overheating U.S. economy, energy stocks seem a logical hedge. All of which suggests that for investors sifting through the rubble searching for bargains: Consider U.S. energy companies.

Build on Insight is written by Russ Koesterich, CFA, is a Portfolio Manager for the BGF Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock


In Latin America and Iberia, for institutional investors and financial intermediaries only (not for public distribution). This material is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any shares of any fund or security and it is your responsibility to inform yourself of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of your relevant jurisdiction. If any funds are mentioned or inferred in this material, such funds may not been registered with the securities regulators of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Spain Uruguay or any other securities regulator in any Latin American or Iberian country and thus, may not be publicly offered in any such countries. The provision of investment management and investment advisory services is a regulated activity in Mexico thus is subject to strict rules. For more information on the Investment Advisory Services offered by BlackRock Mexico please refer to the Investment Services Guide available at www.blackrock.com/mx. The securities regulators of any country within Latin America or Iberia have not confirmed the accuracy of any information contained herein. No information discussed herein can be provided to the general public in Latin America or Iberia. The contents of this material are strictly confidential and must not be passed to any third party.

Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of November 2018 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.
©2018 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. BLACKROCK is a registered trademark of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. MKTG1218L-684166-2107904

 

More than Love, Mass Affluents Rank Money as Most Important When Tying the Knot

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

A la hora de casarse, los estadounidenses prefieren la seguridad a la loca pasión
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainFoto: Michael Morse / Pexels CC0. More than Love, Mass Affluents Rank Money as Most Important When Tying the Knot

Is financial security the new happily ever after? According to the Fall 2018 Merrill Edge Report it could be so.

57% of Americans say they prefer a partner who provides financial security more than “head over heels” love. The survey conducted with over a thousand mass-affluent respondents shows that this preference is true for men and women, whereas today’s youngest generation, Gen Z, is the only generation to prioritize love over money.

The report also finds that Americans are contributing more annually to their savings and investments, than they spend in a year on their mortgage, children’s education and travel.

However, as Aron Levine, Head of Consumer Banking & Merrill Edge while explains, “While an endless pursuit for financial security may be prompting Americans to save at record rates, it’s clear that saving does not mean planning.” The majority of respondents say they have no monetary goal in mind when it comes to many major life milestones, including having a baby (67 percent), getting married (64 percent), sending children to college (54 percent), and putting a down
payment on a house (50 percent).

Could emerging technologies be the solution to these planning shortfalls?

Respondents are increasingly embracing artificial intelligence (AI) in their financial lives, with the majority already comfortable with AI providing financial guidance, managing day-to-day finances and making investments. And, nearly half of Americans admit social media impacts their finances on a daily basis, including their spending habits, budget, and savings.

Merrill concluded that many Americans are clearly in need of well-defined plans to help pursue their goals with more autonomy and confidence.

Emerging Markets: Have they Ceased to be Attractive for Investors?

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

Mercados emergentes: ¿han dejado de ser atractivos para los inversores?
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAlexas_Foto. Emerging Markets: Have they Ceased to be Attractive for Investors?

Following the volatility of the foreign exchange market in Turkey and Argentina, the uncertainty about future elections in Brazil, and trade tensions in China, which were motivated by the escalation of US protectionist measures, many investors have decided to limit their exposure to emerging markets. Is it time to exit emerging markets?

According to management companies, keeping emerging market assets in the portfolios remains a good option in order to diversify risks and to capture some more profitability with some types of assets, but they also emphasize that it must be done with caution after thoroughly analyzing both the countries and the assets.

For example, Luca Paoilini, Chief Strategist at Pictet AM, admits that they continue to overweight emerging markets. “In this state of affairs we maintain a neutral position in stocks and bonds. The world economy remains resilient, but caution is justified and it is too early to overweight. However, we continue to overweight emerging stocks, as the risks are compensated with attractive valuations and solid fundamental,” he says.

At Julius Baer they don’t rule out that in the short term there may be more sales in local debt from emerging markets, driven especially by the decisions that the Fed may take this week on interest rates. They are optimistic however, “Looking beyond the next Fed meeting, we note that fundamentals continue to support both local and strong currency emerging market debt on an equal basis. Valuations have returned from high risk levels to quite normal. Most importantly, global growth remains well supported by US consumer activity and housing resilience in China. Therefore, global growth is unlikely to decline to levels historically linked to emerging market bond crises,” explains Markus Allenspach, Head of Fixed Income Analysis at Julius Baer, and Eirini Tsekeridou, Fixed Income Analyst at Julius. Baer.

According to Legg Mason, despite asset management companies’ valuations, investors are beginning to show their fear of exposing themselves to the emerging universe. “Real yield spreads between emerging and developed markets are at 10-year highs, reflecting the backdrop of fear that continues to spread across the developing world, when one country after another is sold and then repurchased with yields high enough to tempt value and produce hungry investors,” say Legg Mason’s fixed income experts.

ESG: Will It Become A Competitive Advantage?

  |   For  |  0 Comentarios

ESG: ¿Se convertirá en una ventaja competitiva?
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrCourtesy photo. ESG: Will It Become A Competitive Advantage?

A few months ago, a great manager and friend, a faithful follower of the philosophy of value investing, told me that he had introduced ESG criteria into his analysis, and that he considered them a source of competitive advantage for certain companies. He even gave an example. It is the typical comment that you interpret as a justification to support a new trend, but as it came from this person, it made me think. Not only for listed companies where to invest, but for the very business of asset management.

There is no self-respecting conference on investments that does not discuss ESG, no institutional investor that does not show interest in adopting these criteria in new investments and no slide in strategic presentations of companies that does not mention it. They have started to create certificates in “ESG investing” and, of course, the regulator is surely not far behind wanting to define and assign universal ratings…

Obviously, it would be an unsustainable competitive advantage as it does not create a lasting entry barrier, but the speed of implementation may condition the feasibility of the business in the short term.

From the asset management perspective, it should go from being a specific type of asset to be part of the corporate investment philosophy. It will be a new risk factor to control. However, and still being an unstoppable trend, in the short term it faces certain difficulties:

  • It is currently in direct conflict with passive management, where there is no type of ESG filter in most indexes, and therefore in the funds that replicate them.
  • Most capital allocation decisions are made within the companies themselves, which makes it especially difficult to analyse the decisions and the impact on different factors such as supply chains or trade policies.

It definitely means a great risk for asset managers, not being able to access a growing client base with clients who are looking for it, or ultimately, lose them (a great French institutional manager recently mentioned in a conference that 50% of its new business is coming with ESG criteria). And it is also a great risk for listed companies to see reduced access to capital markets, which may (it has not happened yet) increase their cost of capital. In certain cases, if a case of corruption by a senior executive of a company comes out, it could trigger a wave of indiscriminate sales from these funds. And if corporate governance does not work well, it may compromise its cost of financing in a much more aggressive way than we are seeing recently. And the client will eventually demand a report where their manager’s performance is analysed and the impact achieved in certain cases.

Column by Luis Buceta, CFA, CIO Banco Alcalá. Head of Equities at Crèdit Andorrà Financial Group. Crèdit Andorrà Financial Group Research.