Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. ¿Existe la posibilidad de un escenario ‘melt-up’ en los mercados estadounidenses?
In an article published in March 2019, we described the possibility of a melt-up scenario if world central banks were to have a heavy hand on their asset purchases and liquidity injections. A melt-up could be characterized by too much liquidity chasing too few investable assets, thereby leading to sharp upward movements in the prices of stocks and bonds. Such an outcome would most probably impact primarily the assets of leading US companies (an integral part of the main US financial indices).
Back then, this eventuality seemed unlikely in light of the restrictive monetary policy carried out by the Fed. This institution was reducing its balance sheet, by withdrawing the liquidity it had made available during its asset purchase or ‘Quantitative Easing’ (QE) programs 1, 2 and 3. This monetary constraint coupled with the interest rate hikes of 2018 made the melt-up scenario a very distant possibility.
However, since March 2019, the Fed’s monetary policy has been completely reversed. This has led to a significant increase in asset prices. Three interest rate reductions, massive liquidity injections in the US Repo market, sprinkled with a dose Treasury bond purchases (not to be called QE4) have all gone a long way to reassure the financial world, unsettled by events barely a year earlier. In addition, investors, sidelined by the Fed’s 2016 to 2018 monetary policy, have started to come back and buy US assets.
To add to this monetary policy reversal, the financial health of large American corporations has contributed to the rise in US markets. Stock prices have been driven higher on the back of generous dividend payouts as well as share buy backs, sometimes both. Furthermore, cash rich corporations have lowered their external borrowing needs, thereby reducing their bond footprint in capital markets. The dwindling quantity of stock and bonds of American bluechips, faced with strong investor demand, explains in part their positive performance in 2019. This also bodes well for their potential upward price progression moving forward.
One potential ‘cloud on the horizon’ which could upset US financial markets in the future is the significant federal deficit situation. This is just adding to the nation’s colossal debt pool year after year. In spite of this, the appetite for US Treasuries still remains strong.
Why is that? Aside from the Fed’s current asset purchase program, one explanation is the lack of sovereign debt elsewhere in the world, which is driving international investors to US Treasuries. The European Central Bank (ECB) for example owns 40% of Eurozone sovereign bonds. This institution is mechanically driving out its own local investors (who need to hold government bonds) to seek them elsewhere in the world. In Japan, the situation is even worse.
Another reason relates to the negative interest rate policy being applied in Europe and Japan. Capital from these regions is desperately seeking positive returns. The opportunity of investing in the United States on any US Dollar asset including government debt is increasingly being chosen. US capital markets are therefore being supported from international capital flows coming from abroad.
The recent rise in US markets can be attributed to the change in the Fed’s monetary policy, the economic health of large US corporations, as well as incoming capital flows from overseas. What could then be said about the possibility of a melt-up scenario?
As the world’s reserve currency, the US Dollar has a very specific advantage. It remains the safe haven place to go to when faced with significant world uncertainty. On top of this, US equity and bond markets are the only financial markets deep enough to accommodate a large portion of international savings. (Traditional safe havens such as Gold or the Swiss Francs are far too small to absorb these potential capital flows).
If ever the world was exposed to significant geopolitical, health, or financial risks, then a craze could appear from world investors to acquire US Dollar currency and assets. In such a scenario, the melt-up could become much more than a hypothetical possibility.
Column by Steven Groslin, Executive Board Member and Portfolio Manager at ASG Capital
Didier Saint-Georges, Member of the Strategic Investment Committee and Managing Director at Carmignac, will talk about their unconstrained approach in Fixed Income Markets during the first edition of Funds Society’s Investments & Rodeo Summit, which will take place on March 5, 2020 at the Intercontinental Houston Medical Center.
“Our Unconstrained range is defined by an active and global investment approach, that relies on great flexibility in managing exposures through a non-benchmarked philosophy. Thus, Unconstrained Fixed Income Funds may be suitable for investors seeking higher yields outside Europe, which is undergoing historical financial repression, since it aims to benefit from both rising and declining rates and to seize bottom-up opportunities through our disciplined risk management framework.” He mentions.
Didier joined Carmignac in 2007 and he is since 2018 a member of the Strategic Investment Committee. He started his career in 1983 in aircraft financing at Citibank, before moving to the securities business in 1987. He spent ten years with JP Morgan in London, Paris and New-York, where he set up and ran the international equity department. In 1997, he took on the role of Managing Director at Merrill Lynch, in charge of the Global equities and derivatives activities in Paris. Didier graduated from Ecole Supérieure de Commerce de Paris (ESCP) and holds a MBA degree from Georgia State University. He is also the author of two books – “Peut-on battre le marché?” and “Le libéralisme est une chose morale”.
Charlotte Samson, Head of US Offshore & Latam at Carmignac, and David O´Suilleabhain, its Business Development Manager, will also be present at the event.
If you are involved in the management of fund portfolios, or the selection and analysis of funds, and want to participate in this event, reserve your place as soon as possible by writing to info@fundssociety.com.
About Carmignac
The firm has had more than 30 years of independence and conviction
Founded in 1989 by Edouard Carmignac, Carmignac is one of the leading asset managers in Europe today. Carmignac is owned entirely by its managers and staff. In this way, the company’s long-term viability is ensured by a stable shareholding structure, reflecting its spirit of independence. This fundamental value ensures the freedom required for a successful and renowned portfolio management. Carmignac offers a focused range of global, specialized or diversified Funds.
The U.S. stock market rallied into the third week of January then dropped sharply at month end as fears that the spreading coronavirus (nCoV) would reduce growth in China and eventually other countries. U.S. stocks closed flat for the month while Chinese markets were closed for the final week of the Lunar New Year. Earnings releases are in full swing and the U.K. has left the EU. The world waits.
Our firm’s research theme for the next decade is saving Planet Earth, helping people and creating potential…saving the planet by reducing/eliminating plastic and focusing on the impact of climate change and on companies that are finding new solutions. Renewables, including wind, solar, battery storage and building infrastructure for transmission are the areas we want represented by some portfolio companies.
One of the Gabelli stock ‘picks’ in BARRON’s 2020 Roundtable Part 3 published in the January 27 issue that is directly impacting climate change is Orange, Connecticut based sustainable energy company Avangrid Inc. (AGR). AGR has a regulated utility business with a growing $10 billion rate base that provides a tailwind to earnings and a rising dividend.
The second part of AGR is the Avangrid Renewables business, a major factor in solar and wind that owns and operates a portfolio of renewable energy generation facilities across America. In December, Connecticut awarded an Avangard partnership a 20-year contract to provide 14% of the state’s electricity with renewable energy. Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBE), owns over 250 million of the 310 million AGR shares outstanding and is a potential catalyst for an M&A deal.
Another Gabelli BARRON’S ‘pick’ is clean energy project operator NextEra Energy Partners (NEP), which is also an attractive opportunity in renewables.
We feel there should be a greater need for companies to allocate capital in the new year, as opportunities present themselves, there will be a headwind for more deal activity.
Column by Gabelli Funds, written by Michael Gabelli
__________________________________
To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
Afores’ investments in international mutual funds are a reality. Prudently and seeking “that this global diversification is the best for the worker,” Afore SURA was the first Afore to put resources to work using this vehicle.
The Afore, which has a Silver Morningstar Analyst Classification for its solid investment team, decided to start with 1,46% of its assets, or about 500 million dollars, which it distributed to global strategies of Morgan Stanley AM and Investec, as Andrés Moreno Arias, Investment Director of Afore SURA said in an interview with Funds Society.
According to Moreno, “for SURA it is a strategic issue to have managers who can help us with our portfolios in the public and private market, we had to have access to these managers and once authorized [to use them], we almost immediately took the first step”. That is why SURA and other afores spent the last two years talking with the regulator and lobbying about the importance of access to specialists in active management in both public and private markets.
In Moreno’s opinion, “every time you expand the investment regime you are opening up to places where, for example in Asia we have less knowledge than someone who has been there a lifetime, so once the investment regime opens up, it is important that we are given access to tools that allow us access to experts, always keeping costs in check, so that it always represents a net benefit for the clients.”
The way in which they make their investment decisions is based on three stages: “the first stage involves the analysis of the world and the companies’ possibilities regaring profit generation in an overview that begins the allocation process as it defines where we are going to invest in. In a second stage the asset class is defined, in this case equity, then regions, themes… and a final stage involves deciding whether we to do it actively or passively.” As Moreno lets us know, as a result of this analysis, he expects that “in the regions where we will rely on specialized managers we plan to give between 30 and 40% of new investments to active managers.”
Within the active strategies, the manager – who has already closed some mandates, is still open to their use. “The decision between mandates and mutual funds has to do with the issue of costs and benefits for our clients. The mandates open an infrastructure within the managers to attend a particular account, and it becomes much more expensive, so in some cases we decided to close mandates and open funds, but that does not always have to be the case… If what is best suited to our investment strategy is to do it through mandates, we will do so.”
Currently Moreno and his team, which has almost doubled in recent years, likes technology themes and as a region, Asia.
Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate . ¡Ya están abiertas las inscripciones para la Conferencia INTL FCStone's Global Markets Outlook 20/20!
Between February 27-28, 2020 experts and thought-leaders from around the world will gather at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate to participate on the INTL FCStoneVisión 20/20: Global Markets Outlook Conference
There, participants will be offered a global vision of the future for financial and commodity markets, along with detailed market forecasts, insight on the latest technology, and macro-economic outlooks to help them get a clear picture of the factors impacting their bottom line.
Roger Shaffer, Managing Director of Correspondent Clearing at INTL FCStone Financial, told Funds Society that they expect close to 450 attendees at the event, with a mix of about 50% US based and 50% offshore clients.
For the very first time, INTL’s different divisions will combine their conferences, giving the attendee the chance to engage and know about all parts of the business and how they can further serve their needs.
“In the past each division had a separate conference, but our CEO had a vision of putting them all together for an updated event where our customers can learn about INTL’s other divisions and network with a broader group of industry professionals,” Roger mentions.
The conference will be divided into four tracks with focused programming specific to each area.
The Correspondent Clearing Outlook track is an invaluable opportunity for US and international broker-dealers and investment advisors to hear from industry thought-leaders, participate in educational workshops and network with peers. Attendees will experience the latest internal and third-party technology and learn more about INTL’s Correspondent Clearing group.
The Global Agriculture Outlook track will offer a global view toward developing strategy, protecting profits and driving growth with detailed forecasts based on the latest available data. In addition to essential market outlooks, this event provides invaluable opportunities to make new connections and network with peers.
The Dairy Outlook track will offer attendees insights into emerging trends within the industry, along with strategies to protect profits and enable growth in the current environment. In addition to the essential market outlooks and price forecasts, this event provides invaluable opportunities to connect with dairy market experts and make new connections.
The SA Stone Wealth Management track is an invaluable opportunity to listen to some of the best speakers and engage with industry experts to learn about how to build and grow your practice. You’ll also have the chance to make new connections and network with peers.
These tracks will combine for a welcome reception, general keynote sessions, meals and a trade show. For Correspondent Clearing customers, growing assets under management is a critical component of the business, so in addition to presentations regarding economic outlooks, and new technologies, Roger is looking forward to the workshop presentation on how his customers can grow their business.
After a decade expanding its coverage with international Asset Managers in Chile, Peru and Colombia,Capital Strategies Partners will hit Uruguay and Argentina adding Agustin Mariatti as a local business partner.
Agustin will report to Jorge Benguría, partner and responsible for LATAM and Daniel Rubio, CEO of the firm.
The Spain-based group will bring almost 10 asset managers firms to the Uruguayan and Argentinian offshore market.
The company will look to sign new distribution agreements in the next few months in order to be able to develop its product through the huge network of independent advisors.
Mariatti previously worked for Spinnaker Capital Group in Montevideo and Sao Paulo. Prior to Spinnaker he worked at Merrill Lynch as a wire room operator and senior client associate. Agustin is a CFA level 3 candidate.
“We are happy with the incorporation of Agustin and we are sure that with him we will get a good development to provide our customers the best solutions with independence and commitment” the entity said in a statement.
Capital Strategies Partners has 20 years of experience in global markets and more than a decade operating in Latin America:“Our goal is to identify and select global investment ideas of high added value to facilitate the investments decisions of financial institutions with their local needs. The managers that CSP represents have specialized approaches in different asset classes managing in aggregate more than 700,000 Million USD (700 Bn). This allows us to find the alternative that properly helps to achieve the different objectives of each investor” announced the firm.
During the first edition of Funds Society’s Investments & Rodeo Summit, which will take place on March 5, 2020 at the Intercontinental Houston Medical Center, Felipe Villaroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, a boutique of Vontobel Asset Management, will talk about its TwentyFour Strategic Income strategy, a multi-sector bond strategy, that aims to provide an attractive level of income along with an opportunity for capital growth throughout the economic cycle.
“It is genuinely unconstrained and un-leveraged long only bond strategy, managed independent of the market indices, combining the best sources of fixed income from around the globe, highly focused on relative value and liquidity.” He mentions.
Felipe joined TwentyFour in 2011 and is a Portfolio Manager in the Multi-Sector Bond team. His main responsibility is managing funds within the Strategic Income Strategy. He is also a member of the Investment Committee. Prior to joining TwentyFour, Felipe worked as an Asset Allocation and Strategy Analyst at Celfin Capital in Chile, now part of the BTG Pactual Group. There, Felipe took an active role in developing the team’s strategic view of the global macro economy and asset classes.
Felipe graduated from Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile with a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Business Administration before obtaining a Masters in Finance from London Business School. Felipe is also a CFA Charterholder.
Michael Kearns, Head of US Offshore Distribution for Unicorn Strategic Partners, will also be present at the event, representing Vontobel.
If you are involved in the management of fund portfolios, or the selection and analysis of funds, and want to participate in this event, reserve your place as soon as possible by writing to info@fundssociety.com.
Vontobel Group is an active asset manager with global reach and a multi-boutique approach. Each of their boutiques draws on specialized investment talent, a strong performance culture and robust risk management. The firm has a total of $ 118 billion in assets as of June, 2019.
TwentyFour Asset Management is a specialized fixed income firm, headquartered in London and boutique of Vontobel Group. We are specialists in fixed income, headquartered in London and a boutique of the Swiss based Vontobel Group. Since its inception in 2008, they have built an enviable reputation for performance, expertise and innovation in their chosen sector.
Oliver Röder, courtesy photo. Erste AM nombra a Oliver Röder nuevo director de Ventas Institucionales
Erste Asset Management has appointed Oliver Röder as head of institutional sales, since the beginning of February 2020.
He is now responsible for all institutional sales activities across Erste Asset Management.
This appointment brings the Institutional Sales team of Austria, Germany, and International under his direction. He is also in charge of managing and coordinating the according activities in the Central and East European countries. In this position, he reports to Wolfgang Traindl, member of the Board of Directors of Erste Asset Management.
Heinz Bednar, CEO: “Oliver Röder has convinced us with his strategic ideas about ways of expanding the institutional business of Erste AM further. His international track record and his years of experience are crucial elements of success for this business segment, which is very important to us.”
Oliver Röder (47) has been Director of Erste AM in Germany since 2016 – a position which he will maintain. Previously, he worked for other international houses in International Sales. He holds a degree in Bank Management and earned an MBA from Ashridge Management College. He is member of Deutsche Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Asset Management e.V. (DVFA; German Association for Financial Analysis and Asset Management) and Certified Investment Analyst (CIIA).
Participant Capital, a Miami-based real estate investment firm, with over US$3.5B in projects under development, is hosting the Miami Investment Forum 2020, an event that is designed to provide an in-depth overview on prevailing market conditions and forecast investment trends in the new decade. This one-day closed-door event will be held on February 27, 2020, at the PARAMOUNT Miami Worldcenter, a landmark tower nestled in the heart of Miami Downtown, equipped with a Skyport for flying cars. The attendees would be able to explore the futuristic amenities from the very top of the building that boasts some of the best city views.
Miami Investment Forum will convene more than 150 financial advisors, fund managers, business leaders, politicians, real estate experts from South Florida and beyond. One of the keynote speakers is the former U.S. Senator Jeff Flake, who will provide a 2020 political and economic outlook during the election year. Other leading market players, among them FlexFunds, Jones Day, will share their insights on opportunity zones, cover legal aspects of doing business in the US and Latin America, and provide an overview of how different factors affect investment performance.
“The business world is rapidly changing, and it is critical to understand how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed. That’s why we designed this event specifically to provide a holistic vision for people who manage, advise, allocate to, or oversee alternative assets,” comments Claudio Izquierdo, Chief Operating Officer of Participant Capital. C-suite sessions and networking cocktail hours will allow for deepening relationships, developing partnerships, and fostering business growth. We look forward to meeting you.”
Please confirm your attendance here by February 20, 2020.
About Participant Capital
Established in 2011 as an affiliate of Royal Palm Companies, a developer with an extensive track record of more than 40 years, Participant Capital empowers investors with direct access to premium real estate projects and allows them to invest side-by-side with the developer, from the ground-up. Participant Capital is currently partnered with over 40 distributors operating throughout Latin America and Europe and will be expanding to Asia and the Middle East this year. Its investment portfolio includes multiple development projects, different property types, and various geographic locations, and continues to grow with new world-class developments in South Florida and beyond.
The coronavirus has infected more than 20.000 people and killed more than 400 people in China alone. China’s death toll now exceeds the number of people who died in the country from SARS, a respiratory virus that killed nearly 350 people in the country in the early 2000s – as well as hundreds more beyond.
This has put pressure on China’s equity markets, however, and according toMatthews Asia CIO Robert Horrocks, PhD, and Investment Strategist Andy Rothman, both of which lived in Shanghai during the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak that was responsible over 8,000 people contracting the virus and causing 774 deaths worldwide: “All of that plays to headlines and the impact on share prices is consequently exaggerated… While we do not underestimate the potential severity of the outbreak, and it is possible that the numbers of cases increase in the near term, we are encouraged by the response and transparency shown by the Chinese authorities.”
Horrocks believes that in number of cases, is probably likely to peak in March or April. “As I understand it, the more virulent the virus, the quicker it burns out. That is why the comparatively less aggressive common influenza causes much more damage.” To put those numbers in context, the CDC estimates that so far during the 2019-2020 influenza season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu.
As he points out, some workers will be out sick days and some will succumb to the disease. “However, as was the case with SARS, beyond the effect on a quarter or two of earnings for some businesses, the overall effects will be hard, if not impossible, to spot in the data… I can only say that my experience, when I lived through SARS first hand, tells me to eat well, stay active, and importantly, stay calm.” in his opinion, the impact of SARS on China’s GDP is hard to find. If you look for the impact on the stock markets, it was brief.”
Rothman believes that “After the initial stumble, the central government has taken strong measures, including quarantining several major cities, in an effort to reduce disease transmission and demonstrate resolve… It is also worth noting that past epidemics, as well as the consequences of a major earthquake, led the Chinese government to boost spending on public health infrastructure, which should make it easier to manage the Wuhan outbreak.”
Matthews Asia’s specialists looked back at the economic impact of the 2002/03 SARS outbreak and the 2005/06 bird flu epidemic, and found that while there was significant short-term economic impact, that impact faded quickly. There also wasn’t much impact on the Shanghai stock market.
“If the Wuhan Coronavirus can be brought under control in a similar timeframe as SARS was tamed, I expect the negative economic impact will be modest over the course of the full year.” Rothman concludes.
