U.S. stocks were lower in February, primarily driven by underperformance in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The month was characterized by a shift from growth to value, as rising concerns over the sustainability of the AI secular growth narrative nudged several of the “Magnificent 7” stocks into correction territory.
Political dynamics remained a dominant theme as President Trump, now a full month into his second term, continued to push his deregulation and pro-growth policies. Yet, market sentiment was tempered by persistent concerns over the impact of his tariff policies on both domestic and international companies. The month began with President Trump announcing 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico and 10% on China*. While those tariffs were ultimately delayed as negotiations were ongoing, the uncertainty of trade war developments has set the stage for potential volatility ahead.
Economists worry that expectations of higher growth under President Trump’s administration could keep inflation elevated for longer, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy path. In Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, he noted that recent indicators suggest economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, with GDP rising 2.5% in 2024. He added that as the economy evolves, the Fed will adjust its policy stance to best promote maximum employment and stable prices.
Small-cap value stocks underperformed their large-cap value counterparts during the month, as concerns over “higher for longer” interest rates have continued to be a near-term headwind. However, as rates trend lower, we believe small- and mid-sized companies are well-positioned to benefit through 2025/2026 from stronger domestic growth and pro-business policies.
New deal activity remains healthy at $862 billion globally, an increase of 15% compared to 2024 levels. M&A advisers remain upbeat about corporate appetite to make acquisitions due to a return to a more traditional regulatory framework. Some acquirers are choosing to wait for greater certainty and/or clarity on tariffs and the Trump Administrations priorities.
Opinion by Michael Gabelli, managing director of Gabelli & Partners
* This article was written prior to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcements on tariffs.
AMCS Group, an external distribution firm headquartered in Miami and Montevideo, announced in a statement the appointment of Rosario Palay as Sales Associate and Martina Alonso as Administration and Marketing Executive.
“These new additions come at a key moment, as the company has significantly increased the market presence of its three asset management partners, AXA Investment Managers, Jupiter Asset Management, and Man Group, in both the U.S. and Latin American markets,” the statement added.
Palay will assist the AMCS external sales team in achieving the firm’s growth plans in the Americas region. Her main responsibilities will include investment analysis, market research, and ensuring excellence in the daily experience of the firm’s advisor clients.
She will report directly to Santiago Sacias, Managing Partner and Head of Sales for Latin America. After two years as a Treasury Analyst at OCA, Palay brings her experience and an innovative perspective to AMCS Group.
Alonso, for her part, will report to Alfonso Peñasco, Head of Marketing and Product, and will initially be responsible for developing AMCS’s marketing platform, including client communication, web and social media presence, and event organization. She will work closely with the marketing and client service departments of the firm’s three asset management partners.
“We are thrilled to have Martina and Rosario join AMCS Group. Their experience and enthusiasm will help us significantly enhance our client experience. We look forward to their contributions to our ambitious growth plans,” said Andrés Munho, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, in the press release.
Thus, the AMCS Group team is currently structured as follows:
Chris Stapleton, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, oversees global key account relationships in the region, as well as advisor relationships on the West Coast.
Andrés Munho, Co-Founder and Managing Partner, oversees all advisory and private banking relationships in South Florida, as well as companies located in the Northern Cone of Latin America, including Colombia and Mexico.
Santiago Sacias, Managing Partner, based in Montevideo, leads sales strategies in the Southern Cone region, which includes Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Brazil, and Peru.
Álvaro Palenga, Sales Director, is responsible for advisory and private banking relationships in the Miami metropolitan area and the southwestern U.S.
Carlos Aldavero, Sales Director, is responsible for advisory and private banking relationships in New York City and the broader Northeast region.
Daniel Vivas, Associate Sales Director, is responsible for advisory and private banking relationships in Argentina and Uruguay.
Alfonso Peñasco, Head of Marketing and Product, leads AMCS‘s marketing and events engine from Montevideo, as well as coordinates product and client strategy across the group.
Sebastián Araujo, Sales Associate, is based in Montevideo.
Insigneo reported that it has partnered with Luma Financial Technologies (“Luma”), a provider of structured products and insurance technology, to elevate its structured notes capabilities and further streamline financial advisor workflows.
Through the adoption of Luma’s market-leading technology, Insigneo is enhancing its existing offerings with real-time trade data, advanced reporting tools, and an optimized solution that supports every stage of the product life cycle, the company said in a statement.
This strategic move marks an important step in Insigneo’s growth, equipping its advisors with a more agile, robust, and intuitive approach to managing structured notes, it added. Luma will be integrated into Alia, the web-based solutions ecosystem owned by Insigneo and designed to enable investment professionals to manage their practices more efficiently and effectively.
With Luma’s unified solution, Insigneo advisors can access a suite of tools, including training modules, portfolio tracking, trade execution, and automated insights. Its integration with Insigneo’s infrastructure provides advisors with real-time visibility into their structured product activity while allowing data to enhance other key areas of the platform.
“We are thrilled to partner with Insigneo and supercharge their digital structured notes capabilities,” said Rafa Salvatierra, Head of Americas at Luma Financial Technologies. “We remain steadfast in our commitment to empowering financial advisors with cutting-edge technology, and we can’t wait to drive Insigneo’s digital evolution, unlocking new growth opportunities,” he added.
For his part, Pablo Ortega, Director, Head of Latin America and Issuer Relations at Luma Financial Technologies, stated: “Luma is designed to remove the complexities of discovering and managing structured notes, and Insigneo’s advisors will benefit from the enhanced tools Luma offers. We’re excited to support them in delivering greater transparency, flexibility, and access to cutting-edge solutions for their clients.”
“The integration of Luma’s technology marks a major milestone for Insigneo and our advisor network,” said Vicente Martín, Managing Director and Head of Structured Products at Insigneo. “By focusing on improving the advisor experience, we are expanding our capabilities to deliver innovative solutions and personalized support, meeting the evolving needs of our clients,” he added.
Although nearly 90% of Americans are currently saving or planning to save for short-term goals, 60% don’t fully understand how interest rates affect their savings, resulting in most U.S. residents placing their savings in slow-growing vehicles, often below the rate of inflation. In fact, 57% say their savings earn less than 3% interest, and 24% earn less than 1%.
These findings come from a new national consumer survey by Vanguard, which emphasizes idle cash in savings. The survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,011 U.S. adults aged 18 and older.
“Americans are not getting the return they deserve on the money they’ve worked so hard to earn. While the vast majority are saving, most are not doing so in vehicles where their money is earning a fair return,” said Matt Benchener, Managing Director of Vanguard’s Personal Investor division.
The investment management company is on a mission to change that. Vanguard offers the Cash Plus account, which allows Americans to earn eight times more than with a traditional bank savings account.
“With inflation and fluctuating interest rates affecting purchasing power, it’s more important than ever to ensure consumers understand how to safeguard their savings. It’s time to start thinking beyond your bank,” the firm said in a press release.
Time Passes, Things Change
While Americans are saving short-term for various goals like vacations (38%), new cars (31%), and unexpected home repairs (24%), many have one thing in common: their savings accounts are not performing at their full potential. More than half of the respondents (54%) save in traditional bank savings accounts or checking accounts (39%), where average interest rates are about 0.41%, compared to rates like 3.65% in other savings vehicles, such as Vanguard’s Cash Plus account. “This may contribute to the fact that 72% of Americans don’t fully trust they’ll reach their savings goals in the next two years,” the company stated.
Although Americans aren’t taking advantage of the interest their savings could earn, they recognize the need to change their saving habits. 66% of respondents plan to adjust their current savings strategy in the next year, citing inflation (44%) as the main driver of this decision. But nearly a third of Americans don’t know how to begin making those changes.
“By leveraging accounts with competitive yields and establishing intentional savings strategies, Americans can make their money work harder,” said Andrew Kadjeski, Head of Brokerage and Investments for Vanguard’s Personal Investor business. “We’ve designed the Cash Plus account to give Americans a simple and effective way to save intentionally and view their savings alongside their long-term investments,” he added.
According to information provided by Vanguard, Cash Plus currently offers a 3.65% yield, compared to the average yield of bank savings accounts, which is 0.41%. Alongside Cash Plus, the company also offers a full suite of liquidity solutions, including money market funds and ultra-short bond funds.
AIS Financial Group was founded in 2016 as a Swiss investment boutique with the goal of offering personalized advisory and solutions, primarily to independent advisors in Latam, with a strong focus on structured products. Over time, they have expanded their asset offering to include investment funds, securitization, and, most recently, a bond line. The firm’s founding partner, Samir Lakkis, emphasizes that their objective is always to provide the best service and offer alternatives to those of major banks.
What drove you to create the brokerage firm?
When we started in 2016, our clients were mostly independent advisors in Latam. I came from institutions like Commerzbank and Leonteq, which covered this region with structured products, but in some cases they stopped doing so, and the offering became limited. So we thought that, given the clients’ needs, we could provide them access to major banks with high-quality structured notes. We grew gradually: 2021 was a key year because it was very positive for the whole sector. But in 2024, we made another big leap, this time for internal reasons—due to the company’s stability and maturity, with very low staff turnover. Over the years, I’ve learned that stabilizing a team and keeping it consolidated is uncommon in a brokerage firm, and it has given us more security as a company, allowing us to grow in volume.
Who are your main clients?
We started with smaller independent advisors, like the typical banker who has worked in Switzerland for years, decides to go independent, moves to Latam, and manages between 50 and 300 million dollars. From there, we kept growing in both client types and geographic coverage. We started serving slightly larger clients, like multifamily offices, single family offices, or local banks, and expanded our coverage from Latam to Switzerland, the Middle East, Israel, and South Africa. Recently, we’ve started gaining more institutional clients, such as pension funds. But the core business remains independent advisors.
Did you choose Madrid as one of AIS’s six offices because of its ties to Latin America?
Yes. The headquarters is in Geneva, but the Madrid office has grown significantly. We opened in Madrid because, unlike what happened 10 years ago, Madrid has become an alternative to Miami for Latin American clients and advisors. Although they still hold many assets in Switzerland, clients no longer go there to see their banker.
You started with structured products, but have also expanded to investment funds and securitization. What’s the company’s product structure like?
Structured products are still the core. Last year, we distributed more than 4 billion dollars in structured products across 30 countries. But we saw that we could offer clients other products, which led to a distribution agreement with Nomura, active in Argentina, Uruguay, and Panama, to help asset managers access Latam. We also offer asset securitization, for which there is strong demand.
Can you talk about each of these pillars?
90% of the products we create come from client demand—the advisors, each with their own point of view. We work to get the best terms based on their vision. As I mentioned, structured products remain the core business. With funds, we’re doing very well with Nomura, which is a strong player in fixed income, and Indian and Japanese equities.
Securitization is where we’re growing the most, because I believe alternatives are expanding. They’ve taken a while to arrive, but it finally seems like they’re here to stay among our private banking clients. Giving advisors tools so they can create their own alternatives—like taxi licenses in Colombia, artwork, or real estate—is very interesting. We create the structure so that, going back to the previous example, a group of 10 clients can buy thousands of taxi licenses without having to do it one by one. We set up a structured product, an SPV, that issues a certificate, and that certificate is what purchases the taxi licenses in Colombia. It’s about packaging something you can’t buy from a bank account, into a product you can buy from your account.
You’ve also recently ventured into a bond line…
Yes, we started bond trading, also as a response to client demand. Just like with structured products, it arose as an option to offer them a better product.
Which sectors do you see as attractive in the coming months?
After many years where everyone was focused on growth and not so much on value, we’re now seeing a shift from the U.S. to Europe, which we hope will continue.
Are there differences in client demand by country or region?
I think it relates to the origin of the wealth. In both Latam and the Middle East, it’s entrepreneurs who have built their own wealth—not inherited it over four generations—so they’re much more willing to take risks. That’s why there’s a greater appetite for alternative products, higher coupons, more aggressive strategies. In Europe, they lean a bit less toward alternatives and more toward fixed income. In Spain specifically, there’s a strong focus on funds due to tax benefits.
It was quite a show: U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariff policy flanked by whiteboards filled with figures and names. The first reactions varied: Mexico and most Latin American countries felt the blow wasn’t as bad as expected, while Europeans expressed astonishment at the “punishment” coming from a supposed ally. Analysts agree on one thing: this is just the beginning.
Reciprocal Tariffs, Universal Tariffs: Making Sense of It All
From the televised charts to actual figures, there’s a long road—and analysts are trying to gauge the scope of this shift in the foundations of global trade.
For Mexico and Canada, the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize: the list of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs did not include the U.S.’s trade partners under the USMCA. In Mexico’s case, this means that products complying with the agreement will continue to face 0% tariffs, while non-compliant products will now be hit with a 25% tariff.
However, measures under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), targeting fentanyl and migration, remain in force, according to the White House. This leaves both Mexico and Canada exposed to further Trump sanctions. On top of that, sector-specific tariffs—on steel or automobiles, for instance—are still on the table.
So what does a “universal tariff” actually mean? For now, institutions like Barclays have made average estimates and suggest the new scheme amounts to a global 20% tariff—“the most extreme scenario the market had contemplated so far,” according to a report by Argentine firm Adcap.
Beyond Mexico, most Latin American countries have been hit with a reciprocal tariff of 10%. To put that in perspective, a country like Argentina had a 2.5% tariff rate before April 2. That’s now quadrupled.
Leonardo Chialva, portfolio manager and partner at Delphos Investment, breaks it down: “We can split this into two parts: a general 10% tariff for all countries, and extra tariffs for 60 so-called ‘abusive’ nations. The first seems to be a foundational move aimed at implementing a fiscal adjustment plan financed through a massive tax on all imports (with some exceptions). The second appears to be a negotiation tactic to ‘level the playing field’ in international trade.”
“Some analysts have suggested that the ‘extra’ tariffs were calculated using a simplistic formula: applying the ratio between the U.S. trade deficit with a given country and its total imports from that country. In other words, those exaggerated rates might not be based on any real analysis of tariffs or trade imbalances,” Chialva adds.
Waiting for a Reaction in Samarkand
Even geopolitics can have poetic moments. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was attending the EU–Central Asia summit in the fabled city of Samarkand, Uzbekistan—an event she referred to as “Liberation Day.” From there, she noted the EU would assess the impact of the new 20% tariffs and explore negotiation channels.
China, which faces a 34% “reciprocal” tariff on top of sector-specific ones, initially responded with restraint. As of press time, it had not announced any retaliatory measures.
Brazil, on the other hand, issued an official protest—despite some financial analysts seeing opportunities in the reshuffling of global trade.
In a joint statement, Brazil’s Ministries of Foreign Affairs and of Development, Industry, Trade and Services said the move “violates the United States’ commitments to the World Trade Organization and will impact all Brazilian goods exported to the U.S.”
The statement also questioned the U.S. justification of seeking “trade reciprocity.” According to U.S. government data cited in the same statement, the U.S. had a trade surplus of $28.6 billion with Brazil in 2024, when including both goods and services.
Liberation Day or Recession Day?
In the U.S., Trump’s policy is far from receiving unanimous support. Democrats went for an easy rhyme and dubbed the day “Recession Day.”
A special report by Argentine firm Adcap highlighted a key point: tariffs are taxes on imports. While historically a major source of U.S. government revenue, they now account for less than 3% of federal income. With his new package, Trump aims to raise up to $700 billion annually—almost nine times more than current tariffs generate.
Fernando Marengo, chief economist at BlackToro (a Miami-based RIA of Argentine origin), argued: “The notion that tariffs have significant revenue-generating power is misleading. U.S. imports represent less than 15% of GDP. Applying a 10% tariff across the board would yield only 1.5% of GDP. Some countries have higher tariff rates, but even so, the impact on the deficit would be minimal, because taxing imports affects both volume and prices, further reducing the real impact. Tariffs are a one-time adjustment—they change relative prices. They make imported goods more expensive compared to local goods, which discourages consumption and encourages domestic production. But the capacity to ramp up production in the short term is limited.”
Marengo concluded: “The U.S. is destined to run external deficits as long as the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency. Whenever the world needs liquidity, the only one who can provide it is the Fed. In return, the U.S. demands goods. That imbalance—between global demand for dollars and U.S. demand for goods—automatically creates a trade deficit.”
Opportunities in a Global Realignment
Some Mexican analysts view the tariff shock as a potential opportunity: reduced trade with the U.S. may open market space for others.
Latin American countries are turning their gaze to Asia. Brazilian equity chief Rodrigo Moliterno, of Veedha Investimentos, believes Brazil could benefit indirectly from the new U.S. measures. “Asian economies will likely look to Brazil as an alternative for trade or sourcing, instead of dealing with the U.S. under this new tariff regime,” he said.
Financial advisors and employees at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management will be required to be in the office at least four days a week starting May 5, according to an internal communication sent to staff on Monday, which Funds Society has seen.
“Much has changed since the height of COVID,” began the memo, signed by Jed Finn, Head of Wealth Management at the investment bank. “What hasn’t changed, however, is that the vast majority of us do our best work when we’re together in person,” he added.
In another section, Finn emphasized that the success of the business depends on personal relationships and the informal interactions that happen when people share the same space. The note also stated that supervisors are expected to be in the office five days a week unless they have an approved exemption.
Financial firms have been assertive in demanding employees return to the office after the pandemic began affecting the U.S. in 2020, leading to more flexible work policies and the widespread adoption of remote work.
Although Finn acknowledged in his message that “there’s a lot of passion on all sides of this issue,” he maintained that “to continue growing the business and ensure we meet our goals—not just for the current team, but for the future—we believe spending more time together in person will improve our effectiveness.”
In 2022, Morgan Stanley limited remote work to 90 days a year with no exceptions. In January, JP Morgan asked its hybrid employees to return to the office five days a week starting in March, sparking hundreds of comments and complaints from staff, according to Reuters.
Finn’s note also indicated that exceptions might be considered. “We know that in an organization of our size, with a diverse mix of businesses, locations, and roles, there will be situations where more flexibility in work arrangements is required—or even preferred,” he wrote. “With manager and/or advisor approval, those situations may continue,” he added.
Fitch Ratings has just published a damning report outlining the consequences of the trade war launched by the U.S. government: it will reduce growth in both the U.S. and globally, drive up inflation in the U.S., and delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
“We have cut our U.S. growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% in the December 2024 Global Economic Outlook (GEO), as well as our 2026 forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%. These rates are well below trend and lower than the nearly 3% annual growth seen in 2023 and 2024,” the note states.
Fiscal easing in China and Germany will cushion the impact of increased U.S. import tariffs, but growth in the eurozone this year will still fall well short of what was forecast in December. Mexico and Canada will experience technical recessions given the scale of their trade exposure to the U.S., prompting the ratings agency to cut their 2025 annual forecasts by 1.1 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively.
“We forecast that global growth will slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend and down from 2.9% in 2024. This 0.3 percentage point downward revision reflects widespread reductions across developed and emerging economies. Growth will remain weak at 2.2% in 2026,” Fitch adds.
The magnitude, speed, and breadth of U.S. tariff hike announcements since January are alarming, the firm notes. The effective tariff rate (ETR) in the U.S. has already risen from 2.3% in 2024 to 8.5% and is likely to continue increasing: “Our latest economic forecasts assume an ETR of 15% will be imposed on Europe, Canada, Mexico, and other countries in 2025, and 35% on China. This will raise the U.S. ETR to 18% this year, before moderating to 16% next year, as the ETR for Canada and Mexico falls to 10%. This would be the highest rate in 90 years.”
“There is enormous uncertainty surrounding the extent of U.S. measures, and our assumptions could be too severe. However, there are also risks of a greater tariff shock, including an escalation of the global trade war. In addition, the U.S. government has set an import substitution agenda — aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing and reducing the trade deficit — which it believes can be achieved through higher tariffs,” the note adds.
The tariff hikes will lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S., lower real wages, and increased business costs, while rising political uncertainty will negatively affect business investment. Retaliation will hit U.S. exporters. Export-oriented global manufacturers in East Asia and Europe will also be affected. Models suggest the tariff increases will reduce GDP by around one percentage point in the U.S., China, and Europe by 2026.
The recent implementation of fiscal stimulus in Germany will greatly help cushion the blow and allow its economy to moderately recover in 2026. More aggressive policy easing will also help offset the impact in China. Since the tariff impact is estimated to add 1 percentage point to short-term inflation in the U.S., Fitch believes the Fed will delay further easing until the fourth quarter of 2025. Currently, it forecasts only one rate cut this year, followed by three more in 2026 as the economy slows and tariff levels stabilize.
UBS Asset Management (UBS AM) has announced the launch of two new UCITS ETFs that offer exposure to the Nasdaq-100 Notional and Nasdaq-100 Sustainable ESG Select Notional indices. According to Clemens Reuter, Head ETF & Index Fund Client Coverage, UBS Asset Management, “these are the first two Nasdaq-100 ETFs we are launching, giving clients the option to choose between the iconic index and the sustainable version of the same benchmark.”
Regarding the funds, they state that the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF passively replicates the Nasdaq-100 Notional Index, which is composed of the 100 largest U.S. and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, based on market capitalization. The index includes companies from various sectors such as computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale, and biotechnology. The manager clarifies that the fund is aligned with Art. 6 under SFDR and is physically replicated.
Meanwhile, the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITS ETF passively replicates the Nasdaq-100 Sustainable ESG Select Notional Index, which is derived from the Nasdaq-100 Notional Index. Companies are evaluated and weighted based on their business activities, controversies, and ESG risk ratings. Companies identified by Morningstar Sustainalytics as having an ESG risk rating score of 40 or higher, or as involved in specific business activities, are not eligible for inclusion in the index. The ESG risk rating score indicates the company’s total unmanaged risk and is classified into five risk levels: negligible (0–10); low (10–20); medium (20–30); high (30–40); and severe (40+).
In addition, the ESG risk score of the index must be 10% lower than that of the parent index at each semi-annual review. A lower index-weighted ESG risk score means lower ESG risk. The fund is physically replicated and aligned with Art. 8 under SFDR.
According to the manager, the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 UCITS ETF will be listed on SIX Swiss Exchange, XETRA, and London Stock Exchange, while the UBS ETF (IE) Nasdaq-100 ESG Enhanced UCITS ETF will be listed on SIX Swiss Exchange and XETRA.
Ocorian, a provider of services to asset managers, has appointed Amy Meza as Director of Fund Accounting, strengthening its Fund Services team in the United States.
Based in Dallas, she will report to Lynne Westbrook, Head of Fund Services, adding further experience and expertise to Ocorian’s expansion in the U.S. following the acquisition of EdgePoint Fund Services in December of last year, according to the company’s statement.
Meza was previously Vice President of Financial Control at Zip Co Limited and CFO at Direct Access Capital, and she brings extensive experience in global financial services, private equity, treasury management, and change management. She began her career at Deloitte and also served at JP Morgan Chase as Fund Accounting Manager and at SS&C Technologies as Associate Director of Fund Accounting.
“The appointment of Amy brings additional experience and knowledge to Ocorian, and she will make a significant contribution as we continue to build our business in the U.S.,” said Lynne Westbrook.
For her part, Amy Meza added: “Ocorian is ambitious in growing its U.S. business, which makes this an exciting time to join, and I’m looking forward to supporting colleagues and clients in helping achieve our expansion plans.”
Ocorian first entered the U.S. market in 2021 with the acquisition of Emphasys Technologies, based in Philadelphia. Since then, the company has been enhancing its onshore capabilities, making key hires, and expanding its service offering to support its growing client base, recently announcing the acquisition of EdgePoint in Dallas, Texas. Through its operations in New York, the company provides fund managers, private clients, and corporates with access to fund structuring and domiciliation hubs around the world—from Europe and the Middle East to the Caribbean, Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
