Axxes Capital Appoints Shane Cunningham to Lead U.S. Offshore and LATAM Distribution

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Photo courtesyShane Cunningham, Axxes Capital Managing Director and Head of U.S. Offshore & LATAM Distribution

Axxes Capital announced it has appointed former Franklin Templeton executive Shane Cunningham as Managing Director and Head of U.S. Offshore & LATAM Distribution.

In his new role, Cunningham will lead the firms’ offshore initiatives across all sales and marketing-related activities for the U.S. Offshore and Latin American intermediary markets and manage all third-party distributors for the region. 

Cunningham brings a wealth of experience to Axxes Capital, following a distinguished career at Franklin Templeton spanning more than 20 years and crossing three decades.

His tenure at Franklin Templeton culminated in his role as a Senior Vice President and Offshore National Sales Manager, where he successfully led the offshore sales team covering the NRC market, Canada, and the Caribbean Islands. He also served as President and CEO of Templeton Franklin Investment Services (TFIS) broker-dealer. 

Axxes Capital’s Founder, Chairman, and CEO, Joseph DaGrosa, Jr., welcomed Cunningham’s  appointment: “The addition of Shane rounds out our highly experienced sales and distribution  leadership team, allowing us to execute on our global growth strategy.”

Parker Roy, Global Head of Distribution at Axxes Capital, added “With Shane’s 20 plus years of experience in US Offshore and LATAM, we look forward to leveraging his insights to deliver attractive private  market solutions specific to this marketplace.” 

Most High-Net-Worth Investors Hire First Advisor They Speak With

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Dynasty Financial Partners announced the results of a Dynasty Connect survey of 1,000 high-net-worth respondents, all of whom work with a financial advisor. The respondents each had a minimum of $500,000 in investable assets. The survey was conducted in partnership with Absolute Engagement between April 20-May 1, 2023, and has a 3.1% margin of error.

According to the survey, a surprising number of wealth-management clients do not shop around before choosing a financial advisor. Instead, they work with the first financial advisor they speak with.

When asked, ‘With how many advisors did you have a conversation prior to hiring your current advisor?’ 57% of respondents stated that they had ‘only spoken to their advisor.’

“It’s an extraordinary finding that high-net worth families are selecting the first and only advisor they speak with. It’s like buying the very first house you look at,” according to Dynasty Financial Partners CEO, Shirl Penney. “At Dynasty Connect, we provide due diligence and deep understanding of the options wealthy families have when seeking financial advice and introduce those families to independent financial advisors suited to meet their needs.”

Trigger for Seeking Advice

In addition, the survey highlighted that a ‘life event’ was often the trigger for seeking professional advice. These life events include ‘received an inheritance,’ and ‘change in employment situation.’

“These findings about life events triggering the need for professional advice highlight the need for high-net-worth families to conduct appropriate due diligence. Investors need to ensure their chosen advisor has the right experience to handle the often-complex nature of these life events for families of significant wealth,” said Mr. Penney.

“Our goal is to ensure a wealthy individual or family can find a financial advisor who dovetails with their needs, personality, and vision,” he said. “It’s paramount to find a ‘custom fit’ in your advisor so you together may achieve your goals.”

Informal Referrals to a New Advisor

The Dynasty Connect Survey also found that when seeking a new advisor, 46% of respondents were referred by ‘a friend, family member or colleague.’ Respondents under the age of 45 are less likely to rely on referrals and use multiple sources to identify potential advisors. Those younger respondents were about 3-times as likely to find a new advisor using online searches, social media, blogs or other online sources.

“Sadly, data show that relying on your friends and family for referrals may not be the wisest strategy for these wealthy investors, as everyone’s circumstances and needs are unique,” explained Mr. Penney.

The survey results underscore that many high-net-worth individuals are not fully aware of the availability or value of a highly-customized relationship with their advisor, according to Mr. Penney.

“At Dynasty Connect, we want to increase awareness and educate families about the benefits of a strong client-advisor relationship,” he said.

Advisor “Churn”

Highlighting the due diligence gap was subsequent advisor ‘churn’. According to the survey, 61% of respondents under the age of 45 that had changed advisors in the past said they changed because of a mismatch in the relationship, described as ‘looking for a different/specific expertise.’

If high-net-worth investors don’t feel they are in a trust-worthy, high-value relationship with their advisor, they end up switching, according to the survey. Respondents said they switched their advisor for reasons ranging from ‘investment performance’ to ‘I didn’t feel like a valued client’ to ‘I needed different or specific expertise.’

“By performing appropriate due diligence, wealthy families could select an advisor that is a better fit from the beginning, instead of expending a lot of time and energy with the wrong advisor,” added Mr. Penney.

Amundi Announces Partnership with Excel Capital to Expand Presence in Chile and Uruguay

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Amundi announced a partnership with Excel Capital (XLC), based in Santiago, Chile, to  further expand the distribution of its UCITS funds across retail market channels in Chile and Uruguay.

With this alliance, Amundi will strengthen its presence in the region and expand its commitment to distribution partners,  private banks and asset management firms in the South Cone.

Excel Capital is one of the largest and most experienced distributors of foreign mutual funds in the Andean Region.  

Lisa Jones, Head of the Americas, President and CEO of Amundi US, said: “This partnership further  supports our long-term commitment to the region and our dedication to serving our clients. As one of the world’s  ten largest asset managers, Amundi has the deep resources and expertise to bring important new opportunities  to our distribution and banking partners in Chile and Uruguay. Excel Capital is well known and respected and we  are excited to partner with them on this expansion of our strategy.”  

Felipe Monardez, Managing Partner of XLC, said: “Amundi is a powerhouse and market leader with an  impressive number of actively managed funds covering different regions and asset classes benefiting our clients  with best-in-class offerings. We look forward to working with Amundi and building a strong presence with retail  investors in the region.”  

Amundi opened its office in Santiago in 2008 and has long served the needs of institutional and retail clients in  the region. Given the strong demand for active management offered by leading global asset managers, Amundi  is expanding its ability to better serve distribution and wholesale partners across Chile and Uruguay.  

Home Prices Expected to See a Slight Decline

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Mortgage rate lock-in will continue to be a major challenge for the housing market in the remainder of 2023, according to the Realtor 2023 Forecast Update.

While prices have eased slightly, higher mortgage rates are hurting affordability, and many of those who already own a home are not incentivized to list. As a result, the total number of home sales (projected to be down 15.8% to 4.2 million) is likely to be at its lowest point since 2012. On the rental side, prices are expected to drop slightly on the year (-0.9%), as strong multi-family construction is improving inventory.

“High inflation and the Fed’s actions to curb it have had a significant impact on the housing market this year. And while inflation has begun to ease, the sustained spike in mortgage rates was enough to stifle the housing market after several years of low rates and strong activity,” said Realtor Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “The housing market has really seen a double whammy in 2023, with a retrenchment in the number of homes for sale coupled with still-high prices and mortgage rates that have kept both first-time and repeat buyers on the sidelines.”

Affordability improving, but still a long way to go
Home prices have been supported by persistent underbuilding relative to household growth over the last decade, but low affordability has had an outsized impact on demand. As a result, Realtor now expects a modest decline in home prices of 0.6% for the year. The expectation is that mortgage rates will also be slightly lower than originally anticipated, but not low enough to bring down buying costs until the end of the year. As inflation is expected to cool gradually, we expect that mortgage rates will start to do the same beginning mid-year and nearing 6% by the end of the year. For the year as a whole, the cost of a mortgage is expected to be up 10.5% compared to 2022.

Mortgage rate lock-in effect impacting inventory
Realtor expects home sales to decline 15.8% in 2023 for a total of about 4.2 million sales for the year, the smallest annual total since 2012. Mortgage rate lock-in has been a stronger factor than initially expected, and the number of homes for sale has not met initial projections. As a result, the expectation now is for inventory levels to slip 5% for the year, and not the growth projected in the initial forecast.

“The vast majority of homeowners locked in low rates during the pandemic and aren’t particularly excited to give them up in order to buy a new home, unless they really need to move for personal reasons,” said Hale.

Rental prices pull back
Challenging conditions in the housing market will lead many to continue renting, driving ongoing demand for rentals through the second half of 2023. However, the strong uptick in new multi-family construction and people choosing to stay in their unit in order to save money is likely to decrease competition for new units and lead to a slight annual decline in rental prices (-0.9%). However, despite this pull-back, rental prices are still historically high with the average rent about $350 more than it was pre-pandemic.

Other economic factors to consider
Despite the Fed’s tightening, the economy and labor markets have shown resilience. And while paychecks haven’t kept pace with inflation, Americans have dipped into pandemic savings and continued to spend money. While this is boosting the current economy, it could have an impact in the future if consumers burn through savings and need to rely on high-interest debt.

Investors Trust Opens New Office in Kuala Lumpur

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Investors Trust will be opening a new Asia sales hub in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The hub will serve as their new service point in Asia, which will  allow the company to expand its operations and provide even better service to its clients and  financial advisors, the firm said. 

The new state-of-the-art facility, located in the prestigious Exchange 106 tower in the new central business district of Tun Razak Exchange, will provide an attractive and modern work ing environment for their Asia sales team along with an impressive location for Investors  Trust’s business partners from around the world, states the text.  

“The relocation of our Asia hub continues our longstanding commitment to the region and  further expands our presence in Malaysia where ITA Asia Ltd is registered as a licensed Insur er by the Labuan Financial Services Authority,” said David Knights, Head of Distribution Asia at  Investors Trust. 

The new office is part of the restructure of Investors Trust (ITA) operations in the region and will serve as the Investors Trust service hub in Asia after the closure of the Hong Kong office on June 30th,  2023. The relocation is a strategic decision that reflects the company’s preference to concern trate their sales and operations functions in one location where ITA is fully licensed in order to  provide optimal service and expand its reach across the region.

Pictet Asset Management: Secular Outlook 2023

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Securing single-digit annual returns from a diversified portfolio could prove an unusually complex task in the next five years, largely because of volatile inflation and more muscular state intervention.

Overview: return projections for the next five years

Investment strategies will need an overhaul over the next five years. And for several reasons. Economic growth for the rest of this decade will remain stubbornly below average as inflation – while in retreat – is likely to be unusually volatile. Greater state intervention in the economy, meanwhile – in industries such as cleantech, semiconductors and defence – will not only add to the public debt burden but could also increase the risk of policy mistakes and capital misallocation.

The headwinds become more powerful still when the effects of weak productivity, labour shortages and tighter financial conditions begin to manifest themselves with greater intensity. Yet for nimble investors, and those prepared to venture beyond the beaten track of developed equity markets, several potentially rewarding opportunities remain.

Opportunities

  • Emerging markets, quality stocks and green industries represent attractive investment opportunities
  • Many parts of the fixed income market – US Treasuries and emerging market bonds in particular – are attractively priced
  • Private debt offers the possibility of attractive returns for investors willing to lock up their capital

Threats

  • Greater state intervention globally could increase the risk of policy mistakes
  • Returns on traditional portfolios balanced between equities and bonds will be lower, around half the historical norm
  • The rate of inflation will be considerably more volatile even if price pressures moderate

Secular trends

A more interventionist state

Stung by the experiences of the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine war, governments are prioritising domestic resilience and national defence.

The renewed geopolitical rivalry will reconfigure global commerce. Industries that attract the greatest amount of state subsidies – such as semiconductors, green technology, cybersecurity and defence – may well see an improvement in their fortunes.

Yet the broader picture is one of increased risks for investors. The likelihood of policy mistakes will increase as governments and regulators become involved in the management of their economies.

Inflation will fall but it will also be more volatile

We expect inflation to drift back towards levels consistent with central bank targets over the next five years. But this will come with a cost: the rate of inflation will be considerably more volatile.

Returns on traditional portfolios will be lower. As a consequence, economies will grow at below their own long-term trend while returns from traditional balanced portfolios will also be lower than the historical average.

Brace for a labour shortage

An ageing population and the shift to flexible working are exacerbating labour shortages around the world. This is already lowering productivity and curtailing the world economy’s long-term growth potential. China’s shrinking population will make matters even worse.

The adoption of automation could become a more urgent priority.

Avoiding a prolonged economic stagnation will mean making even greater use of automation and machine learning to boost productivity.

But a tech transition will be a long and complicated process.

Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist.

Click here to read the full investment outlook.

Janus Henderson launches fixed maturity bond fund

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Janus Henderson Investors announced the launch of its USD fixed maturity bond fund.

The Janus Henderson Fixed Maturity Bond Fund (USD) 2027, which aims to provide a regular income whilst also aiming to preserve the initial capital invested over the term of the portfolio, will invest in a well-diversified portfolio of primarily investment grade bonds from developed markets around the world. Utilising in-depth fundamental company research the fund aims to exploit price inefficiencies and enhance yield with an emphasis on loss avoidance and minimal turnover.

The Fund’s investment team comprises portfolio managers in the firm’s global corporate credit team: James Briggs, Michael Keough, Brad Smith, Tim Winstone and Carl Jones who have over 14 years’ experience in managing portfolios with specific yield and maturity targets. The portfolio managers cover investment grade, high yield and blended solutions and fully leverage the global corporate credit team’s industry sector insights to enhance portfolio yields. They focus on avoiding defaults and downgrades, while identifying adequate compensation for risk taken.

James Briggs, Corporate Credit Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson Investors said: “Yields on investment grade corporate bonds have risen substantially to levels not seen since the 2008/09 financial crisis. Interest rates and yields are likely to fall as inflation subsides so now is a particularly advantageous time to lock in these yields. A fixed maturity bond not only allows investors to lock in attractive front-end yields ahead of potential rate declines, but investors can capture this high income for relatively low risk as attractive yields on short-dated investment grade credit mean investors can avoid taking on excessive duration or credit risk.” 

Ignacio De La Maza, Head of EMEA Intermediary & LatAm, said: “Our extensive experience in managing investment grade corporate bonds give us the confidence to build a fixed maturity bond fund for investors with income in mind. The team’s active approach, combined with a disciplined and repeatable process to monitor the evolution of portfolio risks is designed to deliver consistently to client expectations.”

The Fund will mature in January 2027 and aims to pay regular coupons at a quarterly rate.

Mariva Capital Markets Announces New Managing Director to Expand its Reach with Emerging Markets Institutional Investors

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Mariva Capital Markets LLC has announced Victor Lugo, CFA, incorporation to the firm as Managing Director. 

Lugo, based in Miami, brings with him twenty years of experience developing and managing relationships with institutional investors in emerging markets: from asset managers and mutual funds to private wealth platforms and insurance companies, among others. 

In addition, he has six years of experience in private banking himself, including roles in trading and devising investment strategy and asset allocation, the firm said in a statement.  

As Mariva Capital Markets develops its international presence, Lugo will be instrumental in building out the firm’s reach with emerging markets institutional investors in the Americas and Europe. 

His client reach with dedicated investors complements Mariva’s existing business and will be immediately accretive.  His additional responsibilities will include augmenting the firm’s focus markets within Latin America.

Lugo has spent time in various international banks, including Santander, ING Group, Morgan Stanley, Credit Agricole and, most recently, SMBC.

 

Man Group to Acquire Varagon Capital Partners

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Captación de capital de Dynasty Financial

Man Group announces it has entered into an agreement to acquire a controlling interest in Varagon Capital Partners, L.P., a leading U.S. middle market private credit manager with $11.8bn of AUMs and $15.4bn of total client commitments.

Founded in 2014, Varagon is a leader in the core U.S. middle market, having completed $24.5bn of financings to over 300 companies and 138 sponsors. The firm focuses on senior secured loans with multiple covenants to cash generative, high-performing sponsor-backed companies in non-cyclical industries, and typically serves as a lead or co-lead lender, with origination capabilities that support enhanced terms and differentiated returns for investors. Varagon offers this strategy through a range of market-validated investment vehicles, including separately managed accounts, private funds, and rated note products.

Upon completion of the transaction, Walter Owens, CEO of Varagon, will continue to manage the Varagon business, supported by its existing 88 team members across offices in New York, Fort Worth and Chicago. Varagon’s investment committee, investment team and investment processes will remain unchanged, and the firm’s access to new investors will be bolstered by Man Group’s global distribution.

Varagon’s strong and experienced management team and high-quality, sophisticated client base, with a particular emphasis on the insurance channel, bring significant institutional credibility to support Man Group’s growth in U.S. private credit. The acquisition will enhance Man Group’s investment capabilities, equipping the firm with a complementary U.S.-focused direct lending strategy designed to provide consistent risk-adjusted outperformance. Crucially, Varagon brings the ability to deploy these investment capabilities at scale in a customisable format to the world’s largest institutional investors.

Under the terms of the Acquisition Agreement:

  1. At completion, Man Group will pay $183m in cash to selling interest holders Aflac, Corebridge Financial, American International Group, and former members of Varagon’s management team.
  2. The cash consideration will be funded using existing internal resources. It will be subject to a closing balance sheet adjustment reflecting any excess or deficit against a minimum working capital target.
  3. Aflac, Corebridge and AIG, which account for over half of Varagon’s client commitments, have agreed to continue their existing multi-year investment management agreements. Subject to maintaining a predetermined level of capital commitments over a nine-year period, extension payments of up to $93m in total will be payable in cash to Aflac, Corebridge and AIG.
  4. Varagon’s management team will roll all of its existing 27% interest into a structure that ensures long-term alignment with the combined business; + and management will have a reciprocal put / call option over the residual stake at fair market value in years 8, 9 and 10, subject to certain conditions.

Eric Burl, Head of Discretionary at Man Group, said: “This acquisition reflects our long-term strategy to move into new market segments where we can differentiate ourselves with talented, specialised teams. Man Group has built a rich and diversified credit offering to date, and as client demand for credit strategies is increasing, we see a significant growth opportunity in direct lending, particularly against the backdrop of regional banking difficulties in the U.S. This transaction enhances our ability to provide deep, fundamental credit expertise through a cycle, underpinned by risk management of the highest quality.”

Robyn Grew, Incoming CEO at Man Group, commented: “We are thrilled to have Varagon join Man Group as an additional investment engine. This acquisition is indicative of our commitment to diversifying our client offering and our strategic expansion ambitions in the U.S. Varagon has built a high-quality investment platform and shares our vision to deliver outperformance for clients. Our extensive distribution network and operational expertise will support Varagon with its continued growth and delivery for clients, and we very much look forward to working with such a strong team.”

Walter Owens, CEO at Varagon, said: “We are excited to be joining Man Group, a world-class investment firm with global distribution capabilities, a strong brand and infrastructure, and a like-minded, collaborative culture. Man Group’s deep experience building bespoke solutions for clients and best-in-class technology will help us to better serve our clients and further reinforce our position as a differentiated capital solutions provider in the core middle market. The private credit market continues to grow in relevance for many investors, and fundamental credit analysis and disciplined underwriting skills will come to the fore as the environment for borrowers in the U.S. becomes more challenging. We believe a combination of Man Group and Varagon will enable us to preserve our proven investment process while helping us scale our suite of products and continue to deliver compelling results to our clients and sponsor partners.”

The U.S. middle market is one of the world’s largest, with over 200,000 middle market companies generating one third of U.S. private sector GDP. U.S. pension fund allocations to private credit stood at $3.2 trillion in 2022, representing 3.6% of total allocations compared with 2.1% in 2017.

Varagon has delivered compound AUM growth of 13% over the three years to 31 December 2022. In 2022, Varagon generated total revenues of $116.3m and profit before tax of $30.9m. Total gross assets were $165.8m in December 2022. These figures have been extracted from the audited accounts of Varagon for the year ended 31 December 2022, which have been prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Man Group expects the transaction to be meaningfully accretive to management fee and total EPS in the first full year following completion, according to the firm.

Wells Fargo Securities is acting as lead financial advisor and Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP is acting as legal advisor to Man Group and/or its U.S. affiliates. Rothschild & Co. Inc. is acting as lead financial advisor and Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP is acting as legal advisor to Varagon.

The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to complete in Q3 2023. On completion, Varagon will become known as Man Varagon. The proposed acquisition of Varagon is a Class 2 transaction pursuant to the UK Listing Rules. This announcement contains inside information and the person responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of Man Group is Elizabeth Woods, Company Secretary.

Pictet Asset Management: Neutralising risk

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China’s re-opening has failed to deliver a market rally, US banking sector remains jittery and inflation is proving sticky. We extend our already cautious stance by shifting more positions to neutral.

Asset allocation: never mind the debt ceiling

The Unites States debt ceiling has filled column inches, but throughout, the markets have been sanguine that a compromise would be struck, limiting the scope for any relief rally in equities.

More pertinent, however, are questions over the direction of the global economy, with the US’s outlook worsening in recent weeks, China’s post-Covid performance starting to disappoint and Germany wobbling.  And as inflation fails to fall as fast as anticipated, investors are reconsidering how quickly central bankers might be prepared to ease monetary policy or how soon rates might peak. That’s one reason equities failed to respond more positively to what was a strong first quarter earnings season – the recent past might have been good, but the future’s looking increasingly uncertain.

As a result, we remain cautious in our general asset allocation, with an  overweight on bonds and underweight on equities.

Our globalbusiness cycle indicators show signs of softening momentum in developed markets, but with emerging markets still registering positive growth. We also detect a growing divergence within developed economies.

The US Federal Reserve’s dramatic series of rate hikes since the start of last year finally seem to be taking a bite out of the US economy. US consumers are responding by increasing their precautionary savings, though the stock of excess savings and relatively low household leverage ratios suggest that while growth will dip below potential, the US shouldn’t slide into recession.

By contrast euro zone growth is picking up – though even here the signals aren’t all positive. The economy continues to be two paced with a persistent gap between the more buoyant services and a contracting manufacturing sector, according to sentiment indicators, despite German unfilled orders remaining well above trend.

Overall, the euro zone’s trade balance has rebounded following the energy shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which should add to deflationary trends. Meanwhile, Japan is in its own virtuous economic cycle, with GDP growing solidly thanks to healthy domestic demand. The Bank of Japan, might, however, start to temper this if, as we expect, it winds up its ultra-accommodative monetary stance.

We remain positive on the Chinese economy as post-pandemic pent-up demand is significant and mortgage rates are falling.  However, the timing of the recovery appears somewhat uncertain with April activity data clearly weaker than expected. Retail sales are running at 12 per cent below trend, and the real estate sector still struggling.

Our liquidity indicators show a desynchronised global cycle, with liquidity contracting in developed economies and expanding in the emerging world. But even in the developed markets, the contraction is less severe than it was at the start of the year, amid moderating inflationary pressures and – in the case of the US – the Treasury in essence injecting liquidity by drawing down its cash pile and the Fed providing emergency assistance to the financial sector.

Though the Fed retains a hawkish bias, we think it’s now on pause. That, however, won’t necessarily improve liquidity conditions – falling inflation means real rates are going up. At the same time, once the debt ceiling drama is resolved, the Treasury could be expected to rebuild its balances. That will also represent a liquidity squeeze (see Fig. 2).  Still, the market is ambitious in its expectations for rates – 170 basis points of cuts over the next 18 months.

Our valuation metrics show that most asset classes are priced in broadly neutral territory – though the dispersion of valuation and yields for major asset classes is abnormally low, suggesting an under-pricing of market risk. Emerging market equities look cheap, broadly because of weakness in Chinese equities. Meanwhile, the gains of the past month have taken Japanese equities from cheap to neutral.

Overall, equity multiples have limited upside over the next 12 months on our model. The US market’s multiple is 15 per cent above our medium-term fair value, though falling inflation could cause it to overshoot further in the short term. We see corporate earnings staying flat in US and Europe this year, though there’s scope for upside surprises in emerging markets.

Our overall technical signal remains positive for equities, with momentum firming further in the Japanese and Swiss markets. Seasonality turned negative for European and UK equities, however. Generally, sentiment indicators are neutral, except for Japanese equities, which now look overbought. The bond score was unchanged at neutral, with the US Treasury market upgraded to neutral.

Most investor surveys point to weakening risk appetite, with fund managers stating their bond allocation is at a 14-year high. Equity outflows accelerated during the month, mostly driven by the US. At the same time, money market and government bond flows remained strong.

Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist.

Discover Pictet Asset Management’s macro and asset allocation views.