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Argentina down to the lower level of liquidity, according to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index

MSCI Inc, a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics and corporate governance services, announced today the results of the May 2013 Semi‐Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indices – including the MSCI Global Standard, MSCI Global Small Cap and MSCI Micro Cap Indices, as well as the MSCI Global Value and Growth Indices, the MSCI Frontier Markets and MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Indices, the MSCI Global Islamic and MSCI Global Islamic Small Cap Indices, the MSCI Pan‐Euro and MSCI Euro Indices, the MSCI US Equity Indices, the MSCI US REIT Index, as well as the MSCI China A Indices. All changes will be implemented as of the close of May 31, 2013.

MSCI Global Standard Indices: Sixty securities will be added to and 61 securities will be deleted from the MSCI ACWI Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI World Index measured by full company market capitalization are Zoetis A (US), Telefonica Deutschland (Germany) and Biomarin Pharmaceutical (US). The three largest additions to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization are Shin Corporation PCL (Thailand), Suzano Papel E Celulose (Brazil), and Oil India (India).

MSCI Global Small Cap Indices: There will be 372 additions to and 334 deletions from the MSCI ACWI Small Cap Index.

MSCI Global Investable Market Indices: There will be 348 additions to and 311 deletions from the MSCI ACWI IMI.

MSCI Global All Cap Indices: There will be 411 additions to and 195 deletions from the MSCI World All Cap Index.

MSCI Global Value and Growth Indices: For the MSCI ACWI Value Index, the largest additions or style changes from growth to value will be United Technologies Corp (US), BASF (Germany) and Altria Group (US). For the MSCI ACWI Growth Index, the largest additions or style changes from value to growth will be Berkshire Hathway B (US), Walt Disney (US) and Bank of America Corp (US).

MSCI Frontier Markets Indices: There will be five additions to and five deletions from the MSCI Frontier Markets Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI Frontier Markets Index are Flour Mills Nigeria (Nigeria), Union Bank Nigeria (Nigeria) and Irsa ADR (Argentina).

There will be 31 additions to and 22 deletions from the MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Index.

Following a deterioration of liquidity in the Argentinean, Omani and Croatian equity markets, Argentina and Oman will be reclassified from the “Average Liquidity” to the “Low Liquidity” category, and Croatia will be reclassified from the “Low Liquidity” to the “Very Low Liquidity” category.

In addition, MSCI will introduce a new standalone country index for Palestine as part of the May 2013 Semi-Annual Index Review. The MSCI Palestine IMI Index will include one Standard and three Small Cap constituents.

MSCI Global Islamic Indices: Twenty Seven securities will be added to and 64 securities will be deleted from the MSCI ACWI Islamic Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI ACWI Islamic Index are Danone (France), PPR (France) and McGraw-Hill Cos (US). There is one addition to and one deletion from the MSCI Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries ex Saudi Arabia IMI Islamic Index.

MSCI US Equity Indices: There will be three securities added to and five securities deleted from the MSCI US Large Cap 300 Index. The three additions to the MSCI US Large Cap 300 Index are Sirius XM Radio, LinkedIn Corp A, and Cerner Corp.

Eighteen securities will be added to and 13 securities will be deleted from the MSCI US Mid Cap 450 Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI US Mid Cap 450 Index measured by full company market capitalization are Hartford Financial Services, TD Ameritrade Holding Co and Boston Scientific Corp.

Ninety securities will be added to and 49 securities will be deleted from the MSCI US Small Cap 1750 Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI US Small Cap 1750 Index measured by full company market capitalization are Bio-Rad Laboratories A, Washington Post Co B and CBOE Holdings.

There will be 44 additions to and 45 deletions from the MSCI US Micro Cap Index.

For the MSCI US Investable Market Value Index, there will be 207 additions or upward changes in Value Inclusion Factors (VIFs), and 202 deletions or downward changes in VIFs. For the MSCI US Investable Market Growth Index, there will be 228 additions or upward changes in Growth Inclusion Factors (GIFs), and 200 deletions or downward changes in GIFs.

MSCI US REIT Index: There will be five additions to and no deletions from the MSCI US REIT Index.

MSCI China A Indices: There will be 18 additions to and 57 deletions from the MSCI China A Index. The three largest additions to the MSCI China A Index are Bbmg Corp A, Avic Capital Co A and Shenzhen O Film Tech A. There will be 90 additions to and 16 deletions from the MSCI China A Small Cap Index.

United States is identified as the best market for fund investors and South Africa the Worst

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Morningstar today released its Global Fund Investor Experience report, which assesses the experiences of mutual fund investors in 24 countries across North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Morningstar’s evaluation of investor-friendly practices in fund markets worldwide identified the United States as the best market for fund investors based on criteria such as investor protection, transparency, fees, taxation, and investment distribution, while South Africa scored the worst. This year’s report also includes first-time reviews of fund investor experiences in Korea and Denmark.

“We launched the first Global Fund Investor Experience report in 2009 to examine the treatment of mutual fund shareholders in 16 countries with the goal of advancing a dialogue about best practices worldwide. Since that time we’ve had numerous conversations with regulators and investment companies in multiple countries about their existing policies and ways to improve,” John Rekenthaler, vice president of research for Morningstar, said. “Working with our analysts around the world, we expanded our survey to 24 countries this year”.

Morningstar researchers evaluated countries in four categories: Regulation and Taxation, Disclosure, Fees and Expenses, and Sales and Media. Morningstar weighted the questions and answers to give greater importance to factual, empirical answers as well as the high-priority issues of fees, taxes, and transparency. Morningstar assigned countries a letter grade for each category and then added the category scores to produce an overall country grade. The report’s authors gathered information from available public data and from Morningstar analysts.

Below are the overall country grades, from highest to lowest scores and then in alphabetical order:

United States: A
Korea: B+
Netherlands: B
Singapore: B
Taiwan: B
Thailand: B
China: B-
Denmark: B-
Germany: B-
India: B-
Norway: B-
Spain: B-
Sweden: B-
Switzerland: B-
United Kingdom: B-
Australia: C+
Belgium: C+
Canada: C+
France: C+
Italy: C+
Japan: C
Hong Kong: C-
New Zeland: C-
South Africa: D

The United States garnered the highest score for the third time with a top grade of A. While the United States is not a leader in the area of Regulation and Taxes, it has the world’s best disclosure and lowest expenses. South Africa, in contrast, received the lowest grade largely because of poor disclosure practices. The new countries reviewed in this year’s report—Korea and Denmark—earned grades of B+ and B-, respectively.

New Zealand showed the largest improvement from the 2011 study rising to a C- from a D- because of positive regulatory changes and an encouraging expansion of disclosure requirements. Morningstar anticipates that the New Zealand government’s ongoing review of all fund regulations will result in even more improvements and investor-friendly practices in the years to come.

Among the key findings of the study:

Bans on advisor commissions are spreading around the world. In the UK, the Retail Distribution Review (RDR) has already brought such a ban into effect, while similar moves are underway in Australia and the Netherlands.
While the U.S. and European fund markets are roughly similar in size, U.S. investors pay significantly lower fees than European investors.
Fund companies in most countries continue to treat the names of portfolio managers as trade secrets, leaving investors no way to determine who is responsible for a fund’s success or failure.
Australia and New Zealand do not require funds to publicly disclose full portfolio holdings, while France, South Africa, Korea, and the UK only disclose holdings to current owners.

To read Morningstar‘s complete Global Fund Investor Experience report, click here.

TD Ameritrade Launches New ETF Knowledge Center

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Building a diversified portfolio of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) just got simpler and more efficient, thanks to the launch of a new ETF Knowledge Center from TD Ameritrade, Inc. (“TD Ameritrade”), a broker dealer subsidiary of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation.

“The ETF market has expanded tremendously over the past two decades”

TD Ameritrade’s new ETF Knowledge Center arms retail investors with greater education and information on ETFs, as well as insights on key ETF investment strategies as they relate to current market environments. Plus, investors can test their knowledge of ETFs by taking a quick pulse quiz.

“When it comes to investing for the long term, many Americans still aren’t doing nearly enough to pursue their intended goals. Our new ETF Knowledge Center is designed to help investors make choices in a way that eliminates extra clicks, provides objective research more directly and makes building a portfolio more visual and intuitive,” said Marco De Freitas, head of products for TD Ameritrade.

A sampling of content in the ETF Knowledge Center includes video tutorials, articles and announcements about ETFs from the basics to in-depth specialty topics, such as:

“The ETF market has expanded tremendously over the past two decades, leaving investors with more choices and greater potential opportunity than ever. But, it also leaves them with a lot of questions about how to navigate the changing landscape,” continued De Freitas. “With the addition of new and different types of ETFs and the expansion of commission-free offerings, TD Ameritrade recognizes the need to help investors understand important aspects of ETFs, like liquidity, more easily identify whether ETFs are right for them, and choose ETFs for their investment strategy.

Julius Baer´s AUM amounted to CHF 220 billion, an increase of 16% from the CHF 189 billion at the end of 2012

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At the end of April 2013, Julius Baer Group’s assets under management (AuM) amounted to CHF 220 billion, an increase of 16% from the CHF 189 billion at the end of 2012. This includes approximately CHF 24 billion from Merrill Lynch’s International Wealth Management (IWM) business outside the US, which Julius Baer is in the process of acquiring. Total client assets grew by 12% to CHF 309 billion.

Julius Baer is targeting to acquire between CHF 57 billion and CHF 72 billion of AuM from IWM over the next two years. The approximately CHF 24 billion AuM from IWM reported at the end of April 2013 comprise CHF 11 billion AuM of Merrill Lynch Bank (Suisse) S.A. in Geneva which was acquired on 1 February 2013 as well as approximately CHF 13 billion AuM from the IWM businesses in Uruguay, Chile, Luxembourg and Monaco, which were transferred to Julius Baer on 1 April 2013. In relation to the latter four locations, the client custody relationships are at this point still on the platform of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML). In line with the transfer mechanism communicated last year, the revenues related to these client assets are allocated to Julius Baer, and Julius Baer is charged platform allocation costs by BAML. Starting in July 2013, the client custody relationships of these legal entities will also be transferred (in stages) to Julius Baer and booked on the Julius Baer platforms. At those points in time Julius Baer will pay BAML the agreed acquisition value (1.2% of transferred AuM), and the BAML platform allocation charges will cease.

Outside the acquisition impact, the increase in AuM in the first four months of 2013 was driven by a positive market performance, a positive currency impact, as well as net new money. Net inflows in the first four months 2013 were volatile and, on an annualised basis, somewhat below the Group’s medium-term target range. Julius Baer continues to have a positive view on the potential for inflows from the growth markets. However, total group net new money in 2013 will be impacted by the implementation of Switzerland’s final withholding tax agreements with the UK and Austria as well as the ongoing self-declarations by clients in other European countries (as continued to be recommended by Julius Baer); as a consequence, net new money for the full year 2013 could be close to the lower end of the 4-6% medium-term target.

Including the IWM businesses transferred in February and April 2013, the gross margin in the first four months of 2013 was 98 basis points (bps) and the cost/income ratio* improved to below 70%, compared to 71.6% achieved by Julius Baer in the second half of 2012 (when no IWM businesses had been transferred yet). The improvement in the cost/income ratio resulted despite the fact that the transferred IWM businesses currently operate at a higher cost/income ratio than the Group average and despite the fact that cost synergies are only expected to be realised at a later stage in the integration process. Between the principal closing of the IWM transaction on 1 February 2013 and the end of April 2013, on a net basis more than a hundred IWM financial advisers have been transferred to Julius Baer. Excluding the transferred IWM businesses, Julius Baer achieved in the first four months of 2013 a gross margin of 99 bps, an increase of 5 bps from the 94 bps level achieved in the second half of 2012. This recovery was driven by an improvement in client activity.

Julius Baer remains very well capitalised. At the end of March 2013, the Group’s BIS total capital ratio (under Basel III) stood at 27.5% and the BIS tier 1 ratio at 25.6%, well above the targeted floors of 15% and 12%, respectively.Julius Baer Group’s detailed financial results for the first half of 2013 will be published on 22 July 2013.

Threadneedle favors Venezuela among EMD investments

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Threadneedle apuesta por Venezuela dentro del espacio de renta fija emergente — Foto cedidaFoto: James Waters, Investment Specialist at Threadneedle Investments. Threadneedle favors Venezuela among EMD investments

Threadneedle believes that short-dated emerging market debt offers compelling investment opportunities, enabling bond investors to capitalize on the potential of developing countries with some protection from macroeconomic uncertainties.

www.fundsupermart.com invites James Waters, Fixed Income Investment Specialist at Threadneedle Investments to share his outlook on this asset class.

Are equity markets ahead of themselves?

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¿Han sobrerreaccionado los mercados de renta variable? — Photo: Keony. Are equity markets ahead of themselves?

Markets continue to do well on the back of an ongoing search for income generating assets by investors. This has caused nearly all assets to perform well year-to-date as both bonds and equities offer cash flows that can be harvested. With respect to equities new psychological bars were broken with the S&P touching 1600 points and the Dow Jones the 15,000 mark. At the same time, core government bond yields reached new lows and spreads on peripheral bonds tightened dramatically. Both Italian and Spanish bond yields fell through the 4% level.

In its last Marketexpress ING IM describes the reasons for the favorable performances and focus on the outlook for equity markets. In the asset manager’s opinion it is too early to say that these markets are getting ahead of themselves.

Renewed acceleration in economic growth is expected

As already said, ING IM continues to believe that the current consolidation phase will be followed by a renewed acceleration in the second half of this year. The factor that really makes the difference this time is the structural dovish shift in central bank reaction functions. Since the summer of last year it has been made very clear that the main focus of monetary policy is now on dealing with high and persistent unemployment as well as ensuring financial stability. In ING IM’s view this has also imparted a structural positive shift in corporate and market sentiment. Of course, central banks have this luxury because inflation pressure will remain absent for some time to come.

Equity investors clearly reacted on negative indicators

Looking at the record highs of some equity indices, it looks as if recent disappointing data have not influenced stock markets. ING IM points out that this is not true, however. Within equity markets they notice that investors have indeed reacted to the disappointing movement in cyclical indicators. The graph shows the underperformance of cyclical equity sectors. The CESI (blue line) is the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The graph illustrates that the current cyclical underperformance has already gone very far. Cyclical sector performance has declined to the lowest level since the start of the global financial crisis. This makes ING IM, from a tactical asset allocation perspective, somewhat cautious. As said, they expect the current soft patch to be temporary while global central banks are injecting liquidity – leading to an expansion of global financial conditions. What if cyclical data will recover later this year?

Cyclical sectors perform in line with cyclical indicators

Turnaround in cyclical data positive for cyclical sectors

Actually, ING IM notices a shift in investor buying behavior from ‘equity-like’ bonds (high yield) to ‘bond-like’ equities (stable dividend growers). This also explains the unusual combination of a strong equity market with defensive sectors outperforming the cyclical and ‘high beta’ sectors.

According to the report, a turnaround in cyclical data may push investors further up the risk curve. Given valuations and performances of cyclical equity sectors versus defensive equity sectors, this push could be forceful, ING IM adds. In their sector allocation they therefore closed the underweight positions in Energy and Materials (to neutral) and reduced their positions in Health Care (to neutral) and Consumer Staples (to underweight).

Despite new stock market highs, sentiment is far from euphoric

Sentiment in equity markets is far from euphoric, ING IM affirms. This is for them another reason that it is too early to say that equity markets are getting ahead of themselves. Looking at investor flows, ING IM sees no rush into equities. The US and Japan are witnessing inflows, but Europe sees outflows. All in all, the asset manager has taken somewhat more risk in equity sectors while we remain overweight equities and real estate equities versus fixed income categories.

Prolonged Multi-Year Global Economic Expansion Expected Says BNY Mellon

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With monetary policy likely to remain supportive of economic expansion for an extended period of time, BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey expects a prolonged multi-year global economic expansion, according to his most recent Economic Update.

“In the short run, the global economy has been in a subcycle of slower growth within its sustained expansion,” says Hoey. “This is due to a combination of factors, including the final months of the recession in the overall European economy, this year’s fiscal drag in the U.S. and some rebalancing in China. However, we expect acceleration in global economic growth near the end of 2013 that will significantly strengthen throughout 2014.

Other report observations include:

“Bottom of the Saucer” in Europe – Hoey expects the overall European economy to hit the “bottom of the saucer” in the last half of 2013. He expects a gradual saucer-shaped pattern in European economic activity rather than a V-shaped or U-shaped recovery and is hopeful that the European recession will end later this year.

Next Recession in U.S. Unlikely Until After Next Presidential Election – With the Federal Reserve likely to continue its easy monetary policy and the unlikelihood of substantial inflationary pressures soon, Hoey expects the next recession in the U.S. is likely to be postponed until after the next Presidential election in November 2016. Next year, Hoey expects a faster pace of growth in the U.S. economy, probably 3% or more.

No Hard Landing in China – Chinese policymakers appear to accept that the deceleration of trend economic growth is unavoidable says Hoey. Hoey does not expect a “hard landing” in China but rather a sustained economic expansion at a somewhat decelerated pace.

Liquidity endures

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The IMF Spring Meeting confirmed that the world economy slowed down moderately in the first quarter, driven primarily by the negative growth in Europe and the anticipated slowdown in the US. Against this backdrop, the idea that the world economy, and the Spanish economy, will improve over the course of the year, is gaining more ground. Consumption data for peripheral European countries is very poor, causing core countries (Germany,France) to stagnate as well. The economy is becoming politicised due to the pressure caused by high unemployment rates. The outcome of the Italian elections foretells a political change on the horizon, likely after German elections in September.

Liquidity bolsters the equity markets as well as the credit markets, leading to a positive month. Strong cumulative results for the year might seem contradictory given the pessimism regarding the world economy, and the Spanish economy in particular, but it is not the first time this has happened. Meanwhile, the stock markets anticipate a certain amount of increased flexibility in terms of restrictive policies and welcome the initiatives of the central banks.

Our funds have performed well in this context. The main reason for this positive performance is the strength of the companies in which we invest, evident after the reporting of their profits.

With respect to fixed income, the credit markets have capitalised on the negative news regarding the world economy and have once again recorded price increases (and drops in yield). Private fixed income (credit) also performed well. In this case, the price performance was slightly lower than that of 2012 (exceptional), due to a lower average accrued interest as well as smaller contribution as a result of the improved spread.

“Sell in May and go away?”

This traditional Wall Street saying suggests that, at some point, we will see a correction in the equity markets. Long-term investments should take advantage of this and increase their exposure to equities, which we currently view as more attractive than fixed income. We believe that fixed income is overstated. We must be prepared for a change in trend in bonds, since the ridiculous yields offered leave little room for an increase (and quite a bit for a decrease). As always, we know in what direction it is heading but not when. The risk of a drop in the value of investment grade fixed income, particularly German bunds andUStreasury bonds (a safe haven recently for many conservative investors), is leading us to be very prudent regarding long terms, the most vulnerable in the event of a correction.

We continue to stand by the securities which compose our fund portfolios, whose recurring growth and sustainable profits make them more resistant and triumphant in an uncertain environment such as todays.

HSBC Adds Four Analysts to Its Latin America Research Team in Brazil

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HSBC announced it has added four equity analysts to its Latin America research team as part of the bank’s continued leadership in providing high quality emerging market research. The analysts will enhance coverage of the Latin American metals & mining and energy sectors.

“We are pleased with the range of expertise these professionals bring to their respective roles which will allow us to provide the global insights our clients have come to expect from us,” said Ben Laidler, Head of Research for the Americas. “This investment in the Latin America research platform will allow HSBC to deepen its coverage of these important sectors.”

Luiz Carvalho has joined HSBC as a Vice President responsible for covering the Latin America oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. Based in Sao Paulo, Carvalho brings a wealth of experience to this important role having worked in the oil & gas industry at Shell and Transocean. Most recently, he was an energy analyst at BTG Pactual where he was a member of the top Institutional Investor ranked energy research team in 2012. He is a graduate in industrial engineering from the University of Rio de Janeiro, and speaks English, Portuguese, and French. Filipe Gouveia has also joined HSBC as an Associate, from Barclays, to support Luiz Carvalho in oil & gas research coverage.

Based in Sao Paulo, Leonardo Correa has joined as a Senior Vice President responsible for covering the Latin America metals & mining sector. Correa is a well-established analyst in this key sector, and will be responsible for further enhancing the coverage of the sector. In this role, he will also serve as an important link into HSBC’s global sector coverage. He has eight years sell-side research experience. Most recently, he was the regional sector head at Barclays, where he was an Institutional Investor survey ranked analyst, and previously he was an analyst covering metals and mining at Credit Suisse. He is an Economics graduate from IBMEC University in Sao Paulo. Luiz Fornari has also joined HSBC as an Associate, from Barclays, to support Leonardo Correa in metals & mining research coverage.

Luiz Carvalho and Leonardo Correa will report to Ben Laidler, Head of Research for the Americas, and locally to Alexandre Gartner, Head of Brazil Equity Research.

Jonathan Brandt will transition from his current Latin America metals & mining role, to lead coverage of the pulp & paper sector in Latin America and Eastern Europe, Middle East, & Africa. This is a new sector of coverage for the firm, as HSBC looks to strengthen its natural resources coverage.

These key hires continue the expansion of HSBC’s Latin America research team, following the appointments earlier this year of Alexandre Falcao (Transport, Capital Goods, and Agribusiness), Sandra Boente (Utilities), and Francisco Schumacher (Southern Cone & Andean Strategy).

HSBC’s Latin America research team now consists of 25 senior analysts, equity strategists, and economists covering over 150 stocks across the region’s six main markets -Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – from research offices in Sao Paulo, Mexico City, Buenos Aires and New York City.

Warburg Pincus closes $11.2 Billion global private equity fund

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Warburg Pincus, a leading global private equity firm focused on growth investing, today announced the closing of Warburg Pincus Private Equity XI, L.P. (“WP XI”), an $11.2 billion global fund. This new fund is one of the largest private equity funds raised post the global financial crisis. WP XI, like Warburg Pincus’ prior funds, will invest in growth companies in the firm’s key industry sectors across the globe.

“We are pleased to announce our final close,” said Charles R. Kaye , Co-President of Warburg Pincus. “This successful fundraise, in a challenging environment, was driven by strong support from both existing and new investors. We see this success as a clear endorsement by our investors of our global growth investing model.”

WP XI’s Limited Partners include leading public and private pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, endowments, foundations and wealthy individuals. A significant number of the new investors in the fund are from outside of the United States. The firm held the final close of the fund within one year of the first close, as planned.

WP XI will continue to pursue a strategy the firm has followed for more than 40 years — partnering with management teams to build world-class companies. Growth is always a core aspect of Warburg Pincus’ investment thesis. The firm invests in businesses at all stages of development from start-ups and growth capital to special situations and buyouts. The firm invests globally with a focus on five key industry sectors: Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare, Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT), and Consumer, Industrial and Services (CIS).

The final close of WP XI follows a very active 2012 in which the firm invested over $2.3 billion in 28 new companies and made follow-on investments into several existing companies. Several of these new investments were made by WP XI including Venari Resources, a start-up company focused on deepwater exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico; China Auto Rental, the leading car rental company in China; and InComm, a global prepaid product, services and transaction technologies company.

The firm has also been active in distributing capital back to investors in prior funds. Warburg Pincus’ funds distributed $6.2 billion to investors in 2012 and another $3 billion in the first quarter of 2013. Some of the companies contributing to this significant flow of distributions included Targa Resources, a leading midstream energy company in the United States; Ziggo, the largest cable TV company in the Netherlands; InTime, a department store chain in China; CAMP Systems, a global software provider for business aircraft; and Kotak Mahindra, a leading financial institution in India.