Foto: Andrej Jakobčič. Eslovenia, un rescate manejable
The bailout deal for Cyprus cast a shadow over Slovenia’s potentially under-capitalized banking sector. Manolis Davradakis, Senior Emerging Econmist at Axa IM argues that the recapitalization needs of Slovenian banks stand at €3 to €5bn, significantly lower than those of Cyprus. A mix of bailout from Eurozone partners and enacted bail-in clauses should help to overcome these concerns.
According to the report the bailout is likely to be requested once external auditors have completed a due diligence of the banking system, although sovereign-rating downgrades could trigger an early request.
Axa IM points out that Latvia might be the next in line for a bailout.
Abstract – Since the adoption of the floating exchange-rate regime in 1999, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) has intervened several times in the foreign exchange market, buying and selling dollars in the spot, futures and derivatives markets. What are the variables that led the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market? In our investigation of this question, we find that the behavior of some variables – including, among others, the risk premium, the deviations of the real from its prior trend, comparison of the performance of the real with that of similar currencies, the volatility of markets and of the exchange rate itself – strongly influence the likelihood of BCB intervention in FX. We also conclude that the monetary authority acts in “blocks”, and that the fact that it had intervened the day before increases the likelihood of a new intervention. We also note that the BCB interventions (“reaction function”) change over time, in accordance with different macroeconomic scenarios and administrations.
. Bloomberg nombra a Samuel Palmisano asesor independiente en materia de privacidad y datos
Bloomberg LP announced today the appointment of Samuel J. Palmisano, the former Chairman and CEO of IBM, to serve as an independent adviser regarding the Company’s privacy and data standards.
Mr. Palmisano will immediately undertake a review of the Company’s current practices and policies for client data and end user information, including a review of access issues recently raised by the Company’s clients. In addition, Mr. Palmisano will make recommendations and advise on the implementation of any enhancements to these practices and policies, including the independent verification of the Company’s systems and procedures. Mr. Palmisano will report to Bloomberg’s Board of Directors.
To assist Mr. Palmisano and the Company in the review of data and privacy issues, the formulation of recommendations, and the implementation of any recommended enhancements, the Board has hired Hogan Lovells and the Promontory Financial Group. Additional expertise will be retained as necessary.
In addition, Bloomberg announced that Clark Hoyt, Editor-at-Large at Bloomberg News until today and formerly the public editor of the New York Times, will conduct a review of Bloomberg News’ relationship with the Company’s commercial operations, including privacy and data policies. He will make recommendations stemming from that review. All necessary resources will be made available to Mr. Hoyt, who will report to Mr. Doctoroff.
Sam Palmisano is the former CEO of IBM, where he served until January 2012. He also served as Chairman of the company until September, 2012. He was promoted to CEO in March 2002 and named Chairman effective January 1, 2003. Under his leadership, IBM achieved record financial performance, transformed itself into a globally integrated enterprise and introduced its Smarter Planet agenda. He serves on the boards of ExxonMobil and American Express. He also serves on the Board of Bloomberg Philanthropies.
Wikimedia Commons. BBVA Compass pone a Andrea Smith al frente de la entidad en San Antonio
After 12 years of successfully managing commercial banking relationships at BBVA Compass, the bank has promoted Andrea Smith to San Antonio city president.
Smith brings more than 18 years of experience in the financial services industry. Most recently, she worked as a commercial relationship manager at the bank in Birmingham, Ala., and focused on governmental and institutional lending to nonprofits, universities and municipalities. She also brings expertise in health care, commercial and industrial lending.
“Given the strong business climate in San Antonio, including the health care and government sectors, we believe this will be a very good fit,” said BBVA Compass Head of Commercial Banking Rafael Bustillo. “San Antonio is the seventh-largest city in the U.S., so it’s a very important market for BBVA Compass.”
Prior to joining BBVA Compass, Smith spent six years in community banking at Lamar Bank and Pike County National Bank in Mississippi. She previously served as president of the board for the Community Food Bank of Central Alabama, and as a board member for the YMCA and the Railroad Park Foundation in Birmingham.
Smith earned a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Southern Mississippi. In addition, she completed the BBVA Compass UT School of Management program and Alabama-based executive programs such as Project Corporate Leadership and Leadership Birmingham.
Photo: http://www.ForestWander.com. Quality Companies, with Good Dividend Yields – A Successful Strategy
Without doubt, the most significant economic development of 2013 has been the transformation of economic policy in Japan. The authorities have planned a massive monetary injection, combined with a fiscal stimulus and other reforms to encourage growth. Unlike previous attempts by the Japanese to fight their way out of deflation, the size of the package and the determined manner in which it has been implemented, has surprised nearly all observers.
There are clearly still difficult structural issues, which haven’t gone away but the effects of the package, combined with a much weaker yen and the consumption tax that is expected next year, which should bring forward expenditure, could be significant. We forecast 1.5% GDP this year and next, both a little above consensus forecasts.
In the US, we see reasonable growth ahead, despite the tightening of fiscal policy, as the economy appears to have built up useful momentum. Following recent revisions, it appears that employment has shown steady growth this year and the housing market continues to display a healthy recovery. We are looking for 2.0% GDP in 2013 and a further pick-up to 2.5% in 2014.
Eurozone economic activity remains very weak due to fiscal austerity and credit constraints. The recent softening of French activity is an increasing concern, and shows that the region’s problems are not confined to the periphery. Germany is also proving less of a positive factor than was previously the case, and is suffering from euro appreciation against some important competitors. We expect a fall in eurozone GDP of 0.5% in the current year, followed by some recovery to 0.5% growth in 2014. The UK just managed to achieve positive growth in Q1 and we retain our forecast for a 1.0% increase in GDP for the year as a whole. The weak eurozone has hit the UK’s trade balance, but a moderately surprising level of employment growth, a fall in oil prices and the Chancellor’s budget stimulus to the housing market should help consumption. We look for expansion next year of 1.5%.
Our forecasts for a pedestrian global economic recovery lead us to favor quality companies, with good dividend yields, in the more defensive areas. This strategy has been successful and consequently businesses with these profiles have become fairly expensively rated relative to other areas. We continue to favor this broad stance, but we have looked selectively to add to some of the more cyclical stocks, which have underperformed, as we seek value.
Equity markets have continued to show resilience despite a mediocre corporate reporting season and slow economies. We believe this is due to markets continuing to display relatively attractive levels of valuations and on account of the impact of global quantitative easing. This makes low risk investments increasingly unattractive and pushes liquidity into other assets. While valuations remain satisfactory, economies show some recovery and easy money continues, we believe it is right to remain above benchmark in equities.
Government bonds on the other hand have moved to unattractive yields and we have underweight holdings. At some point, yields will rise but it may not be imminent as central banks will endeavor to keep yields low to encourage growth. We continue to see better value in corporate and emerging market debt. These asset classes are enjoying healthy fundamentals and buoyant inflows, as investors search for higher yields.
Wikimedia Commons. AXA IM nombra a Lawrence Remstedt director de Desarrollo y Relaciones Institucionales
In this role, Mr. Remstedt will be in charge of institutional business development and relationships in the U.S. AXA IM has built a significant foundation in the U.S. market through two of its most well-established expertises – High Yield in the Fixed Income arena and AXA Rosenberg in the Equity arena. Mr. Remstedt, along with the other members of the sales team, will cover the U.S. and play a key role in broadening AXA IM’s client relationships. Most recently, Mr. Remstedt served as Portfolio Manager at AXA Rosenberg.
“We are thrilled that Lawrence is taking on this new role as AXA IM sharpens its presence in the U.S.,” said Xavier Thomin, Head of AXA IM U.S. “Lawrence has a deep understanding of AXA IM based on his tenure within the AXA IM family and has exceptional experience across asset classes. His experience within the investment team will bring insights and value to this role. In addition, he has successfully placed mandates in U.S. fixed income, global and U.S. high yield, alternatives and various equity strategies. These credentials fit with AXA IM in a meaningful way and we look forward to expanding current client relationships and developing new ones in the U.S.”
Remstedt said, “I’m looking forward to this new expanded role. AXA IM has direct experience in managing liabilities and has developed sophisticated expertise across asset classes to address some of the key issues facing investors today. For example, AXA Rosenberg’s SmartBeta approach has evolved from over seven years of managing volatility for clients.”
Mr. Remstedt’s career spans 24 years in the investment management industry, during which he has focused on developing and servicing institutional clients with extensive U.S. relationships. Prior to joining AXA Rosenberg, Lawrence served as a director of business development for American Century Investments from 2003 to 2008; and prior to that he was in a business development and client service role at Citigroup Asset Management for over nine years, including three years based in London.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Zscout370. Las reformas de México pueden añadir hasta un 1,5% al crecimiento del PIB, según AllianceBernstein
The signing of an addendum to the Pacto por México and the launch of a banking reform proposal suggest a solution to the country’s interparty political dispute. According to a research note twitted by AllianceBernstein, they also reinforce the commitment to much-needed structural reforms, creating a constructive economic and financial outlook.
On Tuesday, May 7, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and representatives from the three largest political parties—the ruling PRI and opposition PAN and PRD—signed an addendum to the Pacto por México (PPM). This new accord rekindled the multiparty compromise to implement a series of ambitious policy reforms throughout Mexico’s economy. These reforms were initially included in the original PPM, which was signed last November.
A Likely Boost to GDP Growth
According to AllianceBernstein’s calculations, Mexico’s potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is currently near 3.5% annualized. “The enactment of a wave of reforms seems likely to lift that GDP cruising speed by at least 1.5% annualized over the medium term, and gradually contribute to rising per capita incomes”, points out the research, adding that the opening of the energy and telecom sectors to competition is likely to lure foreign direct investment inflows bolstering foreign investment, which has been lagging that in other Latin American nations and providing support for peso-denominated assets.
Finally, AllianceBernstein thinks the chances are good for Mexico’s sovereign-debt rating to be further upgraded. Fitch recently upgraded Mexico, and Standard & Poor’s shifted its rating outlook to positive from neutral in March. They wouldn’t be surprised to see further upgrades this year and in 2014.
A transformation of the asset management industry is taking place as traditional guideposts are replaced by a new set of market demands. Economic, technological, behavioral and demographic macro trends are driving the need for firms to re-evaluate their strategies and business models. This paper presents a thematic introduction to the issues the industry is facing, the key implications to asset managers, and the questions firms should be asking to best adapt their strategies and take advantage of these new and emerging industry demands.
The five key macro trends are highlighted below:
Rise and inter connectivity of the emerging markets
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Raimond Spekking. Deutsche Bank designa a Jerry W. Miller jefe de activos y gestión de patrimonios para las Américas
Deutsche Bank announced today that Jerry W. Miller has been appointed Head of Asset & Wealth Management Americas, effective immediately.
Miller is based in New York and reports to Michele Faissola, Head of Asset & Wealth Management. He joins the Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management Executive Committee and will chair the division’s America’s Executive Committee. Miller will also join the Deutsche Bank North America Executive Committee, led by Jacques Brand, Chief Executive Officer of Deutsche Bank North America.
Miller has extensive leadership experience in both asset and wealth management. From 2006 to 2010 he worked at Morgan Stanley, first leading the Central Division of the Global Wealth Management business, then as President and CEO of Van Kampen Investments. Before that he spent more than two decades at Merrill Lynch, ultimately as a member of the senior leadership team at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.
He joins Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management from Lightyear Capital LLC, a private equity firm, where he was a Senior Advisor responsible for the acquisition of financial services companies, with a focus on investment management and wealth management firms.
Michele Faissola said: “Jerry is a talented leader and a highly respected figure in the industry. I am delighted that a professional of his caliber shares our excitement about the opportunity we have in the Americas and the quality of solutions we offer clients. Under his leadership, we will continue to expand our Americas business, giving more clients the chance to benefit from our global asset and wealth management expertise.”
Morningstar, Inc, a leading provider of independent investment research, today reported estimated U.S. mutual fund asset flows through April 2013. While April inflows for long-term mutual funds stood at a healthy $37.8 billion, they continued to moderate from levels seen earlier this year. Inflows for U.S. equity funds slowed to $895 million, their lowest intake this year. Despite tepid interest in core, intermediate-term bond funds, taxable-bond funds overall took in $19.4 billion to mark their 20th consecutive month of inflows. Morningstar estimates net flow by computing the change in assets not explained by the performance of the fund. Click here for a full explanation of Morningstar’s methodology.
Additional highlights from Morningstar’s report on mutual fund flows:
International-equity funds saw the second-strongest inflows among category groups, with $8.4 billion. Relative to assets, alternative funds had the strongest organic growth rate among category groups, taking in $3.8 billion.
The bank-loan category attracted more assets than any other category in April, leading the taxable-bond category group for the third consecutive month. Assets in the category have risen 30 percent for the year to date.
Although taxable-bond funds have led all category groups in 2013, top asset-gathering categories within the group have shifted. Inflows for intermediate-term bond, high-yield bond, and emerging-markets bond funds have slowed from levels seen in 2012, while bank-loan and nontraditional bond funds have gained ground.
Within the U.S. equity category group, investors continued to prefer index funds and the value style over growth. Including exchange-traded funds, active U.S. equity funds had outflows of $5.2 billion, compared with inflows to index funds of $9.6 billion in April.
