Henderson: Will Equities Deliver Over the Long Run?

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Henderson: Will Equities Deliver Over the Long Run?
Foto cedidaSimon Ward, economista jefe de Henderson Global Investors. Henderson: ¿Ofrecerá la renta variable resultados interesantes a largo plazo?

The MSCI World equity total return index in US dollars is within touching distance of its 2007 all-time high, having risen by 131%* from a post-crisis low reached in March 2009. This strong performance, despite a disappointing economic recovery in the Group of Seven (G7) major countries, is attributable to three main factors.

  • First, equities were attractively valued following the 2007-09 bear market. According to a forecasting model** employed by US economist and fund manager John Hussman, for example, US stocks were priced to deliver a 10-year return of 9.2% per annum (pa) at the March 2009 trough. The prospective return, admittedly, reached much higher levels in the 1970s and 1980s – it peaked at 20.0% in June 1982. The March 2009 forecast, however, was the strongest since 1992.
  • Secondly, global growth has been respectable since 2009, despite a sluggish G7 recovery, reflecting the rapid expansion and increased weight of emerging economies. The IMF’s world GDP measure, calculated using “purchasing power parity” country weights, rose by 4.1% pa over 2010-12, above an average of 3.4% since 1980. The IMF expects continued respectable growth of 3.3% in 2013. World stock market earnings depend on GDP performance globally rather than in the G7.
  • Thirdly, the liquidity backdrop for equity and other markets has been unusually favourable since 2009, partly reflecting extreme and unconventional monetary policies. A key liquidity indicator is the gap between the annual growth rates of G7 real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) money supply and industrial production. Faster expansion of real money than output implies that there is “excess” liquidity available to flow into markets and push up prices. This condition has been met in 34 out of 48 months since March 2009.

Applying a similar model to the MSCI World ex US index, for example, suggests a 10-year prospective return of 8.3%

What do these considerations suggest about current equity market prospects? The trend rise in global GDP and corporate earnings should continue to be supported by emerging-world catch-up.

Equity market valuation, however, is now much less attractive than in 2009. According to the Hussman model, for example, US stocks are priced to achieve 10-year performance of only 3.0% pa, well below the historical average. Mr Hussman, therefore, has been suggesting that investors should hold cash rather than equities until an opportunity arises to lock into a less unfavourable long-term return.

Such an argument may be valid for US stocks but carries less force in other markets, where valuation appears reasonable. Applying a similar model to the MSCI World ex US index, for example, suggests a 10-year prospective return of 8.3%.

A further consideration, of course, is the lack of appeal of other investment options – particularly government bonds and cash. The prospective 10-year return of 3.0% pa on US stocks is 1.3 percentage points above the current yield on US 10-year Treasuries*.

Many fixed-income investors, moreover, achieve exposure via funds that maintain a constant proportion of long-term securities rather than buying a 10-year bond to hold to maturity. They are, in other words, exposed to a risk of capital loss if either real yields revert to their historical average or inflationary expectations rise. US equities, in other words, may be priced to deliver a modest return but still appear attractive to bonds.

Valuation is the key driver of long-run performance but shorter-term equity market movements usually reflect the global economic cycle. A strong rally since mid-2012, for example, anticipated a pick-up in economic momentum in late 2012 and early 2013. This pick-up, in turn, was foreshadowed by faster global real money expansion from spring 2012 – the real money supply leads economic activity by about six months, according to the monetarist rule.

Summing up, equities are much less attractive than in early 2009 but are nevertheless likely to outperform cash and government bonds by a significant margin over the long term. Investors seeking to deploy new cash, however, may wish to delay pending a possible economic slowdown later in 2013, which may create a better entry opportunity.

*As of 17 April.

**The model assumes growth in dividends, earnings and nominal GDP of 6.3% pa – based on post-war experience – and mean reversion of the ratio of market cap to GDP over 10 years.

PIMCO Hires Laurent Luccioni as Head of Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Management for Europe

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PIMCO Hires Laurent Luccioni as Head of Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Management for Europe
Foto: Mewiki . PIMCO contrata a Laurent Luccioni para gestionar la cartera comercial de bienes raíces en Europa

PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm, has hired Laurent Luccioni as an Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Management–Europe. In this new role, Luccioni will join PIMCO on April 22nd, and he will be based in the firm’s London office, reporting to Dan Ivascyn, Managing Director and Head of PIMCO’s Mortgage Credit Portfolio Management team. PIMCO manages more than $17 billion in alternative investment strategies including hedge funds and opportunistic private equity strategies.
 
“PIMCO’s global investment platform, deep real estate and mortgage capabilities and intellectual capital enable us to provide a range of investment opportunities for our clients,” said Mr. Ivascyn. “Laurent is an outstanding investor and leader, and he brings to PIMCO significant experience and knowledge of the commercial real estate investment space in Europe and around the world,” added Mr. Ivascyn.
 
PIMCO has developed and managed alternative strategies for over a decade, including a range of hedge funds, distressed credit funds and opportunistic strategies. More than 75 investment professionals across the firm contribute to PIMCO’s alternatives efforts, including specialist portfolio managers, credit analysts, product managers, and client facing personnel across our global offices. The firm’s alternatives products benefit from PIMCO’s global resources and risk management platform and are managed by specialized teams experienced in alternatives strategies.

Luccioni will be an Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Management—Europe. He joins PIMCO from MGPA, an independently managed private equity real estate investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in Europe and Asia Pacific. While at MGPA, Mr. Luccioni most recently served as CEO-Europe with responsibility for the firm’s European business, leading a team of 88 people across five offices. Previously he was with Cherokee Investment Partners in Raleigh, North Carolina and London. He began his career as a design and construction engineer. He earned his MBA from Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University; a Doctor of Civil and Environmental Engineering from UC Berkeley, and a BS and MS in Civil Engineering from Ecole Speciale desTravaux Publics, in France

Do you know Bill Gross? Over the years, I have come to know him pretty well

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Do you know Bill Gross? Over the years, I have come to know him pretty well
Foto cedidaDibujo de Baldwin Berges (www.baldwinberges.com & www.bd-insider.com), cedido por Popinquity Advisors. ¿Conoces a Bill Gross? A lo largo de los años, yo he conseguido conocerle bien

He is a busy guy and I consider myself fortunate to have regular access to his wit and wisdom. Frankly, considering that he is the co-CIO of one of the world’s largest asset management companies and has such a prominent position in the industry, it has been surprisingly easy to get on his calendar each month.

Relationships developed over a period of years have a way of revealing interesting things about a person, his habits and the way he thinks about the world. As it happens, over the last 15 years or so, beyond his investing prowess, I have also learned some very personal and sometimes not too flattering things about Bill.

So instead of waxing poetic on just how smart Bill is or discussing his views on where markets are headed, I will share a few of his personal stories with you (but please, keep them to yourself – some of this is really embarrassing and should not be for public distribution).

I first met Bill back in the late 1990s. The tech bubble was still in its pumping up phase. Bonds did not have the luster that they do today. What became readily apparent, right off the bat, was that Bill has no qualms about telling it like he sees it. Whether addressing the current state of the economy and the bond markets, politics or the status of his sex life and odd experiences in the bathroom, Bill always says what is on his mind.

Here are some of the things I have learned about Bill through the stories he has told me during the course of our relationship:

1. A charming young lady named “Greedy Greta” Mueller gave Bill a very exciting evening in a parked car in the Los Altos hills in California at the age of seventeen (Bill that is; he never told me how old she was). This was certainly a formative event for him.

2. In his mid twenties, he got into a nasty car crash while driving his Nash Rambler and had the top of his scalp torn off. A plastic surgeon sewed it back on. Without the intervention of the doctor, Bill’s hair would have ‘receded’ and thinned far more quickly than it has over the last 10 years or so.

3. Once, he was invited to the Gate’s residence to meet Bill and Melinda Gates. In his sometimes absentminded way, in the process of introducing himself to Mr. Gates, he extended his hand and said, “Hello, I am Bill Gross, it’s nice to meet you, Mike“. He called Bill Gates Mike! Positively embarrassed, Bill said that he soiled his underwear.

4. Bill peaked sexually at around 20 years old ((seems like Ms. Mueller got (nearly) the best of him – see 1. above)).

5. Bill can’t draw a stick figure, he can’t paint a simple picture or even color within the lines as well as my four year old son can. Apparently (according to Bill) he is missing the right lobe of his brain – I’m not kidding!

6. He got a C- in his CAPM class in business school and just one job offer following graduation. Without any other option he took the offer from what would become the owner of PIMCO. A seemingly lucky course of events (!?) -not exactly the storybook makings of the whiz-bang bond-king he has become.

7. During his military service in Asia during the 1960s, Bill ran a payday advance type scheme taking advantage of the ‘short of cash but need to party’ situation he found his less mathematically adept fellow sailors in.  Though he certainly regrets it in retrospect, he said that he had made several hundred percent on some of the short term ‘loans’ he extended to sailors headed ashore for an evening of fun. Think if the Total Return Fund returns 250% in 2013 – investors would crown him as not only Bond King but Global Bond Emperor!

8. If you ever meet Bill at a cocktail party and he says ‘pleased to meet you” he is lying through his teeth. He dislikes cocktail parties and small talk. He has little patience for hearing about other peoples’ kids’ escapades or the challenges of physical ailments. He would rather spend his Saturday evenings sitting at home watching re-runs on television.

I could go on with these stories but you might get the wrong impression.

As many readers will have surmised, these stories are all from various editions of the “Investment Outlook” – a series of monthly essays that Mr. Gross has been writing and distributing to a broad audience for 30 years. Filled with musings about everything from the bond market to the functionality of the modern toilet, the distinct voice of Mr. Gross and his opinions have had a particularly strong resonance with readers for decades.

I have been an avid monthly reader since the late nineties. This is how I have gotten to know Mr. Gross. He has ‘told’ all readers of the Investment Outlook these stories.

Though primarily serious discussions of pressing financial topics, periodically elements of his life experiences (as illustrated above) are used in his writing. These often ‘humanizing’ lead ins give a sense of personal connection to broader and often less tangible topics. He delivers to his readers a true sense of ‘where he is coming from’. He often shakes readers from their traditional framework for addressing a concept and orients them from his own.

But foremost Bill is a terrific investor though he sometimes denies it. In listening to him, he gives one the sense that he is down to Earth and humble – remarkable particularly considering his extensive accomplishments (and unlike many of his contemporaries). He is personable and able to deliver complex ideas about the markets and global economy in a way both clear and accessible- important and rare within the investment community.

I often use Bill Gross and his “Investment Outlook” as a prime example of a tool through which an asset manager can build a relationship with investors. It is a means to not only demonstrate ‘thought leadership’  but also to give investors the sense of one’s humanity (sometimes too coarse for the taste of some). Yes, Bill Gross has sex, goes to the loo, dreads getting old and finds himself in embarrassing situations.

Regular communication of this sort aids asset managers in developing and maintaining robust relationships. It can be the backbone to an informed and committed investor base. It helps to weave confidence and brand loyalty.

A successful communication and client servicing model designed to meet the expectations of sophisticated investors (investment consultants, manager research teams, etc.) must incorporate the ‘voice’ of the manager as prominently as possible. Further, it is a means to standout from the sea of mediocre market commentaries published every month. It is one thing to be good at what you do, it is quite another to be differentiability good.

Further, with thousands of clients spread around the world (like PIMCO has) or dozens (for smaller shops), a PM’s time must be used efficiently and carefully balanced between the portfolio, business management and client demands.

Asset management is a people business. This is particularly evident when looking at the industry from the investors’ perspective. Once the critical but standard due diligence is done on a manager during the selection process, it is largely humanity, in all its flaws, that instills a sense of trust and commitment. These are key elements that imbue the decision process of hiring of an asset manager as the caretaker of one’s money (or, as it is so often the case in our industry, someone else’s). Investors want to ‘know’ their manager.

But with every recipe, there are risks of overcooking. The dangers with this Gross ‘recipe’ are apparent – key man risk and cult of personality (aka “star manager”) being two of the most commonly identified when the voice (and face) of an individual becomes synonymous with a firm.

What might be a greater danger (one that Propinquity has been exploring and experimenting with in its own ‘test kitchen’ of late) is the very validity of the recipe that combines more than ‘a pinch’ of the personal with the professional in this age of (hyper) reality TV, Facebook and Twitter – through which every last detail of a person’s ‘personal’ life might be known.

In fact, what works so well for Mr. Gross is that investor-readers do not know everything about him. There is always something unknown remaining for the reader’s imagination to create for him/her self. Perhaps it is this ‘just enough’ status that, like properly managed Fed monetary policy, is the recipe for success.

(For those interested, there are 20+ years of Investment Outlooks posted to the PIMCO site. I have taken slight liberties to connect the dots of a couple of these story segments – linking them together to make for a larger narrative. I have made every effort to not detract from the spirit of Mr. Gross’s own efforts in the process. I wish him continued success).

[Thanks to Baldwin Berges for his pictorial contribution. Baldwin works with businesses in financial services to help them tell bigger and better stories. His approach is refreshingly insightful as are his collected views.  www.baldwinberges.com & www.bd-insider.com]

Barclays Announces Senior Management Changes

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Barclays Announces Senior Management Changes
Skip McGee a la izquierda, Eric Bommensath (arriba derecha) y Tom King. Barclays Wealth Management anuncia cambios relevantes en su dirección estratégica

Subsequent to Barclays’ publication of the outcomes of its Strategic Review on 12 February, the bank has today announced changes to the senior management within Corporate and Investment Banking, Wealth and Investment Management, and Barclays’ business in the Americas which will streamline the leadership in these areas and accelerate execution of the Transform Programme to build the ‘Go-To’ bank, said the bank in a statement.

They follow on from the elimination of the global Retail and Business Banking layer in late 2012, and the integration plans in hand to bring together Barclays Africa and Absa in 2013. The changes will also mean the promotion of new talent to the Executive Committee of Barclays.

Details are as follows:

Corporate and Investment Banking

  • Eric Bommensath and Tom King are appointed Co-Chief Executives of Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) with effect from 1 May 2013
  • Mr Bommensath and Mr King take on these roles in addition to maintaining their current responsibilities as, respectively, Head of Markets and Head of Investment Banking Division
  • Mr Bommensath and Mr King will join the Barclays Executive Committee on appointment and report to Group Chief Executive Antony Jenkins
  • They will share accountability for the leadership and overall performance of CIB, and ownership of the vision and strategy for this part of Barclays’ business
  • CIB will be structured around client-focused product sets, in keeping with the strategic growth plan for the Investment Bank published on 12 February. Mr King will have specific responsibility for the Banking[1] segment, while Mr Bommensath will oversee the Markets[2] segment.

Rich Ricci, currently Chief Executive of CIB, has decided to retire from Barclays on 30 June 2013, by which time he will have helped to support the establishment of the new leadership team. He will step down from the bank’s Executive Committee on 30 April 2013.

Wealth and Investment Management

  • Barclays is at an advanced stage in the implementation of Project Gamma and the build out of the wealth platform. This creates an obvious inflection point in the development of the Wealth and Investment Management (WIM) business
  • The priority going forward will be on working closely with Retail and Business Banking (RBB) and CIB to provide a seamless service to clients as a platform for future growth
  • Peter Horrell will lead the work on implementation of this priority, and is appointed Interim Chief Executive of Wealth and Investment Management[3] with effect from 1 May 2013, reporting to Group Chief Executive Antony Jenkins.

Tom Kalaris, currently Chief Executive, WIM, and Executive Chairman of Barclays in the Americas, has decided to retire from the bank on 30 June 2013, and, in the meantime, will work with Peter Horrell to implement a transition to the new priority. He will step down from the Barclays Executive Committee on 30 April 2013.

Barclays in the Americas

Barclays’ business in the Americas is of critical strategic importance to the bank. Already the largest source of income, outside of the UK, it represents strong growth potential. There is a clear need for even more effective execution of Barclays’ operations in the region in order to capitalise on opportunities presented through greater cross-working and collaboration between our businesses. Additionally, we want to have the strongest possible relationships with our US Regulators. Accordingly:

  • Skip McGee is appointed Chief Executive, Barclays Americas with effect from 1 May 2013
  • Mr McGee will join the Barclays Executive Committee on appointment and report to Group Chief Executive Antony Jenkins
  • He will be the senior executive in the Americas, with geographic responsibility for all of Barclays’ businesses in the region, including CIB, Barclaycard and Wealth and Investment Management
  • As the primary public-facing executive in the Americas, he will also lead Barclays’ regulatory engagement for the region
  • Mr McGee will also continue to lead some of our most valuable client relationships, and he will remain a member of the CIB Executive Committee.

Japan’s excessive easing will benefit Korea and Thailand among other Asian economies

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Japan’s excessive easing will benefit Korea and Thailand among other Asian economies
Foto: Diliff . Corea y Tailandia, economías beneficiadas por la nueva política monetaria de Japón

Emerging Asian currencies, which already appreciated by a large margin versus the JPY shortly after the election of Shinjo Abe as Japan’s prime minister, appreciated even further after BoJ’s announcement on monetary policies, clouding the outlook for economies and assets in the region.

Axa’s IM analysis pinpoints the key recipients of Japanese financial flows in Emerging Asia, i.e., the economies in the region that will potentially benefit from Japan’s excessive easing.

Currently, more than 7% of Japanese bank lending is cross-border lending to emerging Asia, and according to Axa, the trend will most likely accelerate after the BoJ’s unprecedented monetary easing was announced, since interest rate margins are more favorable in Emerging Asia than in Japan.

Japanese portfolio investors primarily favor assets issued by Emerging Asian issuers over other emerging market regions

Axa IM classifies the various economies in Emerging Asia as belonging to one of three different groups depending on the share of domestic lending contributed by Japanese banks. In the first group, they position countries where the share overshoots 10% of total domestic lending, hovering at around 15% (Singapore and Thailand). In the second group, they have countries where the share is between 5% and 10% (Indonesia, Hong Kong and Philippines). And in the third, the share is below 5% (China, Taiwan, India, Korea and Malaysia).

The four economies in the region where credit growth is the most excessive are also the four locations where the share of lending by Japanese banks to total domestic lending is the highest (Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand).

Another channel through which Japanese liquidity is finding its way to Emerging Asia is through portfolio investments, which include the purchase of stocks and bonds (sovereign and company debt instruments).

Portfolio investment by Japanese investors to emerging markets has been growing steadily since 2002, from 2.5% of total Japanese portfolio investment abroad in 2002 to 4% in 2011. Japanese portfolio investors primarily favor assets issued by Emerging Asian issuers over other emerging market regions.

Asia receives the lion share of Japan's investment in emerging markets

Japanese portfolio investors continue to prefer mostly equities in China, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore, while they prefer debt securities in the Philippines, Korea and Malaysia. In 2011, they began holding more debt securities in Thailand, India, the Philippines and Korea.

Japanese liquidity finds its way to Emerging Asia through Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) as well. Japanese FDIs are particularly large relative to the size of the economy in Singapore and Thailand.

According to Axa’s analysis, Korea and Thailand have the potential to attract more Japanese FDIs, while Singapore and Hong Kong more portfolio investments. Thailand and Singapore will attract more lending from Japanese banks, too. “These findings are further supported by stock valuations, namely the P/Es which signal that these economies are the cheapest in Emerging Asia, as well paving the way to more financial flows from Japan”, concludes the report.

“Economic growth, savings, and the Colombian financial sector may get affected if the new pension reform gets passed”

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"El crecimiento, el ahorro y el sector financiero colombiano podrían verse afectados de aprobarse la reforma pensional"
Wikimedia CommonsLeonardo Vilar, chairman of Fedesarrollo. "Economic growth, savings, and the Colombian financial sector may get affected if the new pension reform gets passed"

The entrance into operation of the private pension system in Colombia has generated “significant impact” on the economic growth, the increase of savings and to a greater extent the financial system. In terms of growth, the annual increase ranges between 0.3% and 0.8%; as far as the savings, the annual increase is 1.5% of the GDP, while the financial depth increased 0.19% of the GDP. These are some of the conclusions that Fedesarrollo came to, after conducting a study about the impact of a reform on the Pension System in Colombia, and which they explained this past Friday during the second working day of the VI Asofondo Congress and the XI International Congress of the International Federation of Pension Fund Manager (FIAP).

Fedesarollo, one of the most important economic research centers in Colombia, revealed the results from a recent study, whose objective was to measure the effect caused by the creation of the Individual Savings System (pension funds) over the economic development of the country.

In this direction, the director of Fedesarrollo, Leonardo Villar, emphasized that “without any doubt, the pension reform, which gave life to the individual saving system, has benefited the economic development of the country, with important effects which could increase if the informality and the employment were lower in Colombia”.

In regards to the reform of the Pension system, whose Bill will be presented to the Congress in the upcoming weeks, Villar stated that “preliminary estimates shows that an amount of $4.1 billion will stop going to the Individual Savings System in order to pass over to the public system, as it is presented in the proposal by the national government”.

“This reform has a cost in terms of growth. How much? A reduction between 6 to 20 basis points of the economy, with a negative impact in regards to the savings and the financial depth”, Villar assured.

The researcher explained that what is known in regards to the proposal up until now is only partial, meaning that its fiscal impact and other side-effects are still unknown. He further stated that some aspects related to tax savings, transitional regimes, and special schemes, still need to be clarified. In any case, the country will choose a structural reform that will allow “a totally acceptable retirement system” and that will offset the possible side-effect that might come with it.

Aberdeen moves Andrew Kelly to New York as Head of Marketing for the Americas

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Aberdeen traslada a Andrew Kelly a Nueva York como responsable de Marketing para las Américas
Wikimedia CommonsAndrew Kelly (right) at Charlie Bartlett´s awards ceremony with KJ Choi in Augusta (GA). Aberdeen moves Andrew Kelly to New York as Head of Marketing for the Americas

Aberdeen moved Andrew Kelly from London to New York, where he will be responsible of the Marketing Division of the Americas.

Kelly, 33 years old and originally from New Zealand, worked at Aberdeen from 2005 up until 2010. He held several positions during this time, including the last three years as the Head of Marketing of the Group. From 2010-2012 he worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management at the International Marketing department, division focused on institutional channels in Germany, Benelux and Middle East. After this two years, last year returned to Aberdeen, where he focused in Europe before moving to New York.

Kelly has a degree in Marketing and Finance from the University of Otago, New Zealand.

Japan surpasses China in expectations: investors approve the phenomenon Abenomics

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Japan surpasses China in expectations: investors approve the phenomenon Abenomics
Foto: Alvesgaspar . Japón supera a China en expectativas: los inversores aprueban el fenómeno Abenomics

Global investors are moderating their earlier exuberance in the face of somewhat lower conviction over global growth, though they remain positive towards equity markets overall, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for April.

    “European expectations and risk appetite are moderating as global caution over the region wins out”

A net 49 percent of respondents now expect the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months. This is a decline of as much as 12 percentage points from March. While the threat of a U.S. fiscal crisis has largely receded, anxiety over the eurozone and new risks – particularly the potential for conflict in Korea – has intensified. A “hard landing” in China also remains a concern.

Investors’ more cautious stance is reflected in their increased cash holdings. These are now at the highest level reported by the survey in six months (4.3 percent).

Fund managers showed sharper regional preferences than they have in past surveys. They are increasingly positive towards the U.S. and Japan, where 12-month views have reached their most bullish in seven years. Appetite for exposure to the U.S. dollar remains at the highest level in the survey’s history.

At the same time, panelists have grown more negative on both emerging markets and the eurozone. A small majority now look to underweight emerging markets – the survey’s weakest reading on this measure in over two years after a 30-point decline in just two months. Confidence in eurozone growth also fell sharply this month. A net 19 percent of regional investors expect the region to strengthen this year, down from March’s net 40 percent.

“‘Abenomics’ signals that Japanese policy-makers are joining the fight against deflation. This reinforces our expectation of a ‘Great Rotation’ into equities from fixed income,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “European expectations and risk appetite are moderating as global caution over the region wins out,” added John Bilton, European investment strategist.

Eurozone confidence declines

Lower confidence in eurozone growth is reflected in global investors’ move to a net 8 percent underweight. Regional investors sharply cut cyclical exposures such as Construction (down 38 percentage points), Basic Resources (down 22 points) and Oil & Gas (down 17 points) this month, while increasing defensive plays like Healthcare/Pharma (up 20 percentage points to a net overweight).

In a new question for the survey, fund managers were asked what event would be most positive for European risk appetite. More than half of respondents identified steps towards a regional banking union and agreement on structural reforms in key periphery economies. Given the inter-connection between eurozone banks and sovereigns, this reinforces the regional risks highlighted elsewhere in the survey.

Japan surpasses China

Confidence in Japan’s new expansionary policy is evident in the survey. Every regional fund manager polled expects the economy to strengthen over the next 12 months. Global investors also expect the policy shift to weaken the yen. Their appetite for the currency is now at its lowest since February 2002.

In contrast, bullishness on China is evaporating. A net 13 percent of regional investors now expect the country’s economy to strengthen in the next 12 months, down from a net 71 percent as recently as January. The survey’s global reading on this question is now down to its lowest level since last October.

Call for capex

The survey continues to highlight fund managers’ call for companies to put their significant volumes of cash to work, or to return it to their owners. With a net 60 percent regarding companies as underinvesting in their businesses, 48 percent would most like to see excess corporate cash flow directed to higher capital spending. Thirty-four percent want surplus funds distributed back to them through buy-backs or dividends, with only a far lower 11 percent viewing the reinforcement of balance sheets as a priority.

Despite this call for higher capex and their still-benign macroeconomic view, investors are more doubtful about prospects for significant global earnings growth. A net 38 percent now judge that companies are unlikely to raise EPS by as much as 10 percent this year. This stance has grown much more skeptical since March. Their expectations of corporate margin performance weakened similarly.

Looking for yield? 5 ideas by Threadneedle

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Looking for yield? 5 ideas by Threadneedle
Stephen Thornber, gestor del fondo Threadneedle Global Equity Income Fund. ¿Busca dividendo? Cinco ideas de Threadneedle

Stephen Thornber, manager of the Threadneedle Global Equity Income Fund, picks five global stocks which are all yielding more than 5%:

Blackstone

Blackstone is the largest alternative asset manager in the world and is benefiting from a number of powerful drivers to its business.  Banks around the world are being forced to de-leverage as tighter controls on capital are implemented by regulators, Blackstone with its strong capital base, ability to raise new funds and management skills, is ideally placed to acquire assets at attractive prices that the banks are being forced to sell.  Demand for alternative investments is also growing as investors seek to diversify their investments and Blackstone has a strong brand, scale and a diversified long-life asset base.  Together with a strong balance sheet and a commitment to an attractive dividend pay-out, Blackstone is yielding 6% currently and we believe this can grow by over 10% pa for the next few years.

Enterprise Products

Enterprise Products is a US utility company which operates oil and gas pipelines and transfer and storage facilities.  Enterprise is benefitting from the growth in energy production from the US shale regions, production here has grown rapidly, but the necessary infrastructure is struggling to match this growth.   Enterprise’s earnings are stable thanks to its long-term contracts, it has little energy price risk as most of its contracts are related to volumes, not value and it has a growth dimension unusual in the utility sector because it is expanding its pipeline network and signing new customers as shale production increases.  Enterprise has a yield of 5% and has grown its dividend every year for the past 13 years.

NagaCorp

NagaCorp is a Cambodian casino and entertainment operator and has a 40 year exclusive casino licence for the capital Phnom Penh.  Positioned in fast growing IndoChina, NagaCorp is leveraged to the region’s economic growth, increased tourism and the growing demand for gaming destinations.  NagaCorp has a strong balance sheet, with no debt, low cost operations, a favourable tax regime and a significant expansion project underway that will double its capacity by 2015.  NagaCorp is trading at a discount to the Macau casinos and pays a 5.5% dividend.

Prosafe

Prosafe is the world’s leading operator of floating accommodation rigs and provides accommodation rigs to energy companies to house their staff and contractors when they undertake maintenance on offshore fields.  Demand is strong as offshore production activity increases, existing rigs age and require more maintenance, and also by tighter health and safety regulations.  Prosafe operates the largest and most sophisticated fleet, meaning it can charge the highest rates and operate in the toughest environments. Prosafe has a yield of 5.8% which has grown by over $20 a year in the last 5 years, a strong balance sheet with very little debt and is investing in two new rigs to meet future demand.

Digi.com

Digi.com is the third largest mobile telecom company in Malaysia, Digi’s growth is being driven by strong economic growth in Malaysia, the increasing usage of mobile phones and the pickup of data usage as smartphones become a larger part of the mobile market. Digi currently yields over 5% and I expect its profits to grow by 20-25% this year. The company’s debt free balance sheet means management have committed to increasing its dividend in line with its profit growth.  Digi is part owned by Telenor, the Norwegian telecoms company, who have introduced European style cash management systems and levels of corporate governance, reinforcing our confidence that the company can deliver earnings growth and a high and growing dividend in the next few years as mobile usage continues to grow in Malaysia.

Michael Strobaek to join Credit Suisse as CIO for the Private Banking & Wealth Management Division

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Michael Strobaek to join Credit Suisse as CIO for the Private Banking & Wealth Management Division
Michael Strobaek. Michael Strobaek se suma a Credit Suisse como CIO de Banca Privada y Gestión de Patrimonio

Credit Suisse today announced that Michael Strobaek will join the bank as Chief Investment Officer for the Private Banking & Wealth Management division, effective May 1, 2013. In addition to this role, Strobaek will head the newly established Investment Strategy and Research Group within the division. He will report to Robert Shafir, Head Private Banking & Wealth Management Products.

The Investment Strategy and Research Group is comprised of the Global CIO Office, Research for Private Banking & Wealth Management, Regional CIOs and additional groups within the division that produce complementary investment content. Giles Keating, Head of Research for Private Banking & Wealth Management, will assume the role of Deputy Head of the Investment Strategy and Research Group in addition to his current role. Research will partner closely with the CIO office on actionable ideas, while retaining the independence of process.

Robert Shafir, Head Private Banking & Wealth Management Products, said: “We’re excited to have Michael joining Credit Suisse. He brings significant experience in financial markets to this role, including managing international investment management businesses. Michael’s skill set will enhance our ability to deliver our investment views and themes for the benefit of clients across all segments.”

Hans-Ulrich Meister, Head Private Banking, added: “The creation of the Investment Strategy and Research Group is an important step for the Private Banking & Wealth Management Division. It will enhance the value proposition for our clients. We look forward to working with Michael and are pleased to have him as part of our team.”

Michael Strobaek joins Credit Suisse from a Swiss family office, where he was CEO and CIO. Prior to that, Mr. Strobaek spent 13 years at UBS in a number of senior positions, most recently Head of Investment Management for Wealth Management, and prior to that Global Head of Investment Solutions.